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Idus Martiae

Idus Martiae

by The MoleMarch 15, 2019

The Ides Of March (Idus Martiae in Latin) was a day on the Roman calendar that corresponds to the 15th of March. It was marked by several religious observances and was notable for the Romans as a deadline for settling debts. In 44 BC, it also became notorious as the date of the assassination of Julius Caesar which made the Ides of March a turning point in Roman history.

Whether or not we are witnessing a turning point in equities remains to be seen but at this point my short term beartard escapades have officially ended:

No big surprise there as the writing was on the wall shortly after I left Valencia. I was about to go long this morning but then equities dropped while I was looking for a good entry. Which is excellent as we now have the opportunity to grab a position on a 3rd attempt to breach the current spike high near ES 2825.

Just my luck that Ms. Market would issue the juiciest setups while I was stuck out in the French boonies. Except that despite the rainy weather my Internet connection seems to be holding up well:

Not bad at all! I can definitely work with that. Let’s hope it stays that way during my stay here.

Anyway, on the setup front we have gold which looks like a nice entry on a breach of 1311.6 with an ISL < 1293. Why not right here you ask? Yes you can but it’s a lot more risky as this situation could resolve lower at least until a touch of the 100-day SMa.

Bond futures are on my watch list after a massive squeeze higher. When looking at that hourly chart, do you notice anything?

(tick tock tick tock tick tock tick  ……)

Well obviously the bulls seem to be running the tape as the corrections are slow and torturous while the BTFD responses are fast and furious.  Which means I want to be long upon a retest of the 100-hour SMA if possible but I’d make due with a good old fashioned spike low.

More below the fold for my intrepid subs:

[am4show have=’p1;p13;p9;p12;p5;p10;p20;p29;p32′ guest_error=’login’]

Crude is an entry right here with an ISL < 57.70. Although my position size is going to be only 0.3% as the odds still support various take down events by the bears.

As you may have noticed we have the inverse situation happening here with slow LV climbs followed by HV wipe outs lower. Which means more risk and wider stop losses.

And how could I resist the USD/JPY? I’m taking an entry right here near 111.5 with an ISL < 111.10. Very nice retest the 100-day SMA before  it picks a final direction – if that ends up being the long side then I expect a squeeze higher.


Alright, you guys asked for pictures and the Mole delivers.

My temporary setup – it’s lot more comfortable than it looks actually.

Here’s a shot of my make shift evil lair with my gear in the background for more context.

As you can see there’s plenty of wildlife to keep me company.

Fortunately I have my personal guard dog ‘Giselle’ who’s keeping watch while I’m writing this post.

If you are a Star Wars fan and wonder what happened to Darth Vader’s head then here’s your answer. Clearly I’m in very good company 😉

I haven’t had a good opportunity to take snapshots of the castle but was stomping through the surrounding property this morning to get a lay of the land.

What the picture does not convey is the amazing silence that shrouds it all. Except for the occasional bird you can’t hear anything. Basically the exact opposite of Valencia right now.

I ran into this old structure just a few hundred meters from the castle. I think it’s used to store stuff or hay during the winter.

Here’s a pan shot showing a tiny pond right next to that old structure. That Cujo looking dog in the front is the second of three guard dogs present on the property. All three of them weigh > 80lbs – no joke. Massive beasts who will rip any intruder into small pieces.

I was a little worried about the rainy/cold weather before we ventured out here. But now that I’m settled in I absolutely love the gloomy weather and especially the morning fog, which is representative of the French countryside in late winter / early spring.

Alright that’s all for today – I’ll try to post more next week. Enjoy your weekend!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Mr. Market – tear down this wall.

  • strider

    Really nice pictures.

  • evilasevildoes

    man I am coming to visit I will trade you my hawaii shack for a week

  • evilasevildoes

    DBA turning green

  • zzezzezz


  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Just beautiful Glad you are having a great time.Nice post also Thanks Chief !

  • evilasevildoes

    sort of stopped

  • Yoda

    See folks. Flirt with the dark side and on a bust one’s head will get.

  • Sp00nman

    Very cool Sir Mole, enjoy your vacation!

    On another note, there are some interesting things lining up on the charts with bearish divergences. Bonds, Breadth, etc. The NDX has just fully retraced the 10/16/18 level, the RUT hit the 10/16 level and has been lagging, and the SPX has obviously taken out the previous high on 10/16. Given the “seasonality” after quad witching and everything else, I am stalking a short position. Sentiment on the interwebs seem to be quite bullish also.

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like a beautiful place to be Mole even with the grey weather.

    I spent a few days in France back in the 60’s. I had my own car and my buddy and I drove to Paris from Germany. I think it was about a 6 or 7 hour drive. My fondest memory of France during this very short visit was after spending all but $3 that we had left between the two of us in Paris, we still had a long drive back to Germany. We hadn’t eaten anything because for $3.00 we could just barely buy a cup of coffee in Paris. So we.began our drive back and waited until we stopped at a little store in a small town about 50 Miles outside of Paris. For that $3 we bought a large loaf of bread, a big hunk of cheese, a large cooked sausage and a bottle of wine. From the store, I drove on a back road having no idea where we were and we found a spot to stop and eat brunch. It was such a beautiful view of the countryside and such an enjoyable brunch that I’ll never forget it. The funny thing is that I do remember some of the attractions of Paris but my most favorite memory is eating brunch on that hillside.

    On the trading front, I’m having a pretty good day so far. I’m still holding long oil, long financials and some recently added long BioTech 3X LABU.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi SP SPX playing it on the daily chart. Shorting only on a bearish reversal. Not jumping the gun


    Nice pictures Mole, Thanks for sharing…. Is there a moat?

  • Jason13

    Great pics..


    I just got up… went back to sleep for while after the open. I sold my crude short for a small loss on the opening drop. DWT 7.4 from 7.6. TVIX kind of hanging tough near my entry despite 10 addition ES points, IYR, holding short

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Big Red Flag $BKX and $TNX should be moving up in tandem. Higher rates i.e. $TNX benefits Banks.Also Bonds are not corroborating the rise in equities. The “Poop” will hit the fan Shown two daily charts $BKX and $TNX JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f125c7d8cd02d0f6ce07758b707b8e4e399ca5982a92f1a468a36143632f18ab.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Ronebadger

    I am holding some tvix here….. nothing crazy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Everyone have A great weekend

  • bankwalker

    The wall has been penetrated but is still standing.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Going to nibble short at close. Very very small probe (SH)

  • bankwalker

    bye Julie

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Have A Great Weekend BW

  • zzezzezz

    probably smart to do so. i chickened out. 100% cash now.

  • sutluc

    You didn’t think the “mole going on vacation” indicator would work for mole himself did you? That would be insider trading. The beartard excursion was doomed to fail.

  • Ronebadger

    He didn’t fly, did he? If he didn’t, the indicator probably doesn’t work.

  • Ronebadger

    (testing indicator now…)

  • Jason13

    Some say the boxed area and a nominal new high is a crash zone. And its a week of buyback dry-up…ummmm…..and FOMC on Wednesday. Don’t shoot the messenger, I just pass this shit on. You decide what to do. I will be taking a short this week but later in week. First SPX action in awhile. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/722051b8db5c892def3c95b335e4a42251acd55d09326a8b82858c58cfd2a39a.jpg

  • Jason13
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Notice how the shipping & transportation giant isn’t following the Major Indexes?

    The high and low are 235 trading days apart. Close enough for a 233 Fib sma.
    The major trend ended in late September and the rest is history.

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Real estate is indeed softening… we shall see if that ever affects IYR, I like my DRV play…. anyway, rare link to zeroedge here on a weekend… while Mole is away 😉



    What does your chart say to you?

  • Jason13

    Yeah wondered that myself.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Interesting read re: how the creation and redemption process of ETF’s work.


  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I see everything!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually I did fly to Marseille. Next time I’ll probably just drive – it’s much easier. We are even thinking of just driving back instead of going back to Marseille.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – so Tony is going to post today (Monday) as well as tomorrow (Tuesday). I won’t be posting on Wednesday as I’m traveling but I’m back to my old shenanigans on Wednesday.