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I’m late….
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I’m late….

by MoleOctober 23, 2008

I just got home from some plans that ran late, so I am going to be quick.  Fortunately, there is not much new to talk about.  Our two primary scenarios remain on the table.  That is, the markets are tracing out a triangle ($INDU, $NDX), which is the more bullish of two scenarios.  Or, the markets are tracing out a series of 1-2s in a 5th wave (whether it be V or 5 remains to be seen, IMO).  The final option is that we are putting in an ending diagonal, but we appear to be falling in 5s and rallying in 3s, which would lend the most support to the 1-2s scenario.

Breadth was a solid 9:1 negative today, but volume was picking up as we approached the lower support levels, but not enough to let us break through today.  We should target around 1300 in the $NDX whether we are tracing 1-2s or a triangle, but either way, we should not breach yesterday’s high.  I wanted to toss out the ending diagonal as a prospect most people have not considered.  As it stands right now, this is the lowest probability of the three, but I felt it was worth mentioning.

I hope everyone was ready on that MA break of 145.  We got a nice push down, and I closed out 1 contract for nice gains.  I am still holding some, and will likely add again.  This is a 40 point move (about 30% in the stock), so I plan to take it as a couple of trades.  Initial target is 120, and the final target is around 100.  If you have not gotten in this trade, a retest of the 143-145 range would be a GREAT entry.  If the trade is not for you…don’t trade it.

That is all that I have tonight…hopefully I can post a few more gems tomorrow.  In the meantime, tell me what GNK, BG, FSLR, MA, ICE, CHK, and CCJ all have in common.  I am really curious as to how you will think they relate.

Skål!


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • DMS425

    They are all stocks? So, they must go down!

  • BigSteve

    Well, they're all in different industries so that's not it, but it looks like they've all lost at least 50% of their stock price since about May or June of this year. Other than that it's getting late so my brain's not fully engaged.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    More meat and potatoes to devour thanks guys this blog and it's analysis rock.

  • gagelle

    Descending flag with bearish breakdown?

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Feels like a Jeopardy answer there… Which stock have lost 30-50% of their value in the last 4 months? or They are all trading below the 4 moving averages: 200, 50, 30, & 20 DMA?

  • malusDiaz

    Earnings reports due out soon!

    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3284/2966554632_

    I don't think i could figure out a conspiracy to link them all! Then I'd sound like a nut who thinks 700B happens to sound like the total gold bullion in the US and would be called crazy!

    Am I right?

  • GEO
  • http://www.retracementlevels.blogspot.com 2SWTrading

    this is worth reading:

    http://retracementlevels.blogspot.com/2008/10/2

    skol!

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Finviz can tell you all of that 😉

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That is correct, but not what I was looking for.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I didn't even notice that they were down 50%, but it was late when I posted, so I will give your brain the night off.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Close, but I would not consider MA a bear flag. Good try.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I give you kudos for the 4 moving averages…that says something, but not the answer I was looking for.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nope, not earnings, but I am happy to hear that BG reports earnings today.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I would have taken that they are all stocks that I currently own puts on…kinda figured someone would think of that, but that is not the real answer I was looking for.

    A single indicator links these together. They are not the only stocks that fit the bill, but they are good examples of things that I am buying puts on. This is the MAIN thing that I look at right now before I get into a position one way or another. And all of these stocks give fairly similar readings from that oscillator, making me confident that these stocks will really move.

    If noone can guess, I will give my answer during one of Mole's intra-day updates.

    Skål!

  • toad37

    Expected to see futures up big this morning…. What's up? Foreclosure report?

  • b_rad

    money is flowing out and they are all going to $0?

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    CNBC's Decabox?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Some of them are very close, but a % based off of an indicator is why I am trading them…what is it?

    Skål!

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Those are all the stocks Jim Crammer owns in his charitable trust. lol

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    They've gotten a “Decabox” now. I have seen the “septabox” and even the “octobox,” but a “decabox” is stepping it up. The world MUST be about to end.

    Skål!

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like all these stocks are forming triangles 🙂

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    For one thing, international markets are down. Nikkei -5%. Then that international financial summit in China today… world leaders are saying this is an international crisis… Mr. Vix might go above 80 today, jzt a guess.

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Oh geez, you've never seen the decabox? Take a gander if you get a minute.

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?v

    My guess to your question revolves around BB 2.0 but who knows 😉

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Looks like they all have a long way to fall…

  • C.C. Rider

    I give. What is the indicator. I have my own “proprietary ” signal, and it hasn't flashed yet.

  • molecool

    LOL – secret indicators galore 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It is not a directional based oscillator, and I do not use it to actually trade. I use it in my stock selection process.

    Skål!

  • "mark"ofthebeast

    Follow you everyday over at slope of hope.
    You make me a believer in Eliott waves.
    Keep up the good work.
    I wish you much success.
    “It is indeed a good day to die!'
    Worff

  • ZigZag

    Is it because these all are owned by hedge funds?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No, but would not be surprised.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No, not that either. As a group they have not formed any type of pattern except consolidation.

    Skål!

  • "mark"ofthebeast

    Looks like a test of the upper resistance of triangle.
    Follow you everyday. You give me a reason to believe
    in elliott waves.
    You are honest,straightforward and polite.
    Keep up the good work.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    100 bucks more and gold will be at 600 lol

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hi Berk, and hi to your rat bastard evil reptile twin that has branded me as “Grandpa of Slope”….SoB…
    I was wondering who, in this vast web space, would raise a possibility of “Ending Diagonal.”
    Cheers!
    You are too sharp for your own good.
    Gotta kill you now!
    Happy trading!

    p.s. I am usually a suck for a pop quiz, but since I don't use any indicators….I can't even guess……Shucks…..

  • C.C. Rider

    Out of 1/2 position. RELOAD!!!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I agree with all but the polite part, as we hardly fit that description.

    Skål!

  • stealthadvisor

    The Yen

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Well, I hope to hell it is not an ending diagonal, but noone else seemed to consider it…which made me think.

    Thanks for the props! I'll be sure to throw out some quiz questions you should be able to get next time.

    Skål!

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

    (sorry Jeff – stole that from you)

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Finviz can tell you all of that 😉

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That is correct, but not what I was looking for.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I didn't even notice that they were down 50%, but it was late when I posted, so I will give your brain the night off.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Close, but I would not consider MA a bear flag. Good try.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I give you kudos for the 4 moving averages…that says something, but not the answer I was looking for.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nope, not earnings, but I am happy to hear that BG reports earnings today.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I would have taken that they are all stocks that I currently own puts on…kinda figured someone would think of that, but that is not the real answer I was looking for.

    A single indicator links these together. They are not the only stocks that fit the bill, but they are good examples of things that I am buying puts on. This is the MAIN thing that I look at right now before I get into a position one way or another. And all of these stocks give fairly similar readings from that oscillator, making me confident that these stocks will really move.

    If noone can guess, I will give my answer during one of Mole's intra-day updates.

    Skål!

  • toad 3,7

    Expected to see futures up big this morning…. What's up? Foreclosure report?

  • Woolly Llama

    money is flowing out and they are all going to $0?

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    CNBC's Decabox?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Some of them are very close, but a % based off of an indicator is why I am trading them…what is it?

    Skål!

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Those are all the stocks Jim Crammer owns in his charitable trust. lol

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    They've gotten a “Decabox” now. I have seen the “septabox” and even the “octobox,” but a “decabox” is stepping it up. The world MUST be about to end.

    Skål!

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like all these stocks are forming triangles 🙂

  • JZT_CHIL

    For one thing, international markets are down. Nikkei -5%. Then that international financial summit in China today… world leaders are saying this is an international crisis… $Vix might go above 80 today, jzt a guess.

  • http://investingadventures.com Jorge

    Oh geez, you've never seen the decabox? Take a gander if you get a minute.

    http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?v

    My guess to your question revolves around BB 2.0 but who knows 😉

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Looks like they all have a long way to fall…

  • C.C. Rider

    I give. What is the indicator. I have my own “proprietary ” signal, and it hasn't flashed yet.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – secret indicators galore 🙂

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It is not a directional based oscillator, and I do not use it to actually trade. I use it in my stock selection process.

    Skål!

  • Treasurehunter

    Follow you everyday over at slope of hope.
    You make me a believer in Eliott waves.
    Keep up the good work.
    I wish you much success.
    “It is indeed a good day to die!'
    Worff

  • ZigZag

    Is it because these all are owned by hedge funds?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No, but would not be surprised.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No, not that either. As a group they have not formed any type of pattern except consolidation.

    Skål!

  • Treasurehunter

    Looks like a test of the upper resistance of triangle.
    Follow you everyday. You give me a reason to believe
    in elliott waves.
    You are honest,straightforward and polite.
    Keep up the good work.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    100 bucks more and gold will be at 600 lol

  • T.Bear. Aurelius

    Hi Berk, and hi to your rat bastard evil reptile twin that has branded me as “Grandpa of Slope”….SoB…
    I was wondering who, in this vast web space, would raise a possibility of “Ending Diagonal.”
    Cheers!
    You are too sharp for your own good.
    Gotta kill you now!
    Happy trading!

    p.s. I am usually a suck for a pop quiz, but since I don't use any indicators….I can't even guess……Shucks…..

  • C.C. Rider

    Out of 1/2 position. RELOAD!!!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I agree with all but the polite part, as we hardly fit that description.

    Skål!

  • stealthadvisor

    The Yen

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Well, I hope to hell it is not an ending diagonal, but noone else seemed to consider it…which made me think.

    Thanks for the props! I'll be sure to throw out some quiz questions you should be able to get next time.

    Skål!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

    (sorry Jeff – stole that from you)