Now Reading
Intra-Day Update: 768
376

Intra-Day Update: 768

by The MoleNovember 20, 2008

UPDATE 9:45am EST: Looks like we didn’t get that rally we were hoping for. 776 is the next long RT – right now this bus is basically empty, which completely sucks. In any case, the one chart you guys need to keep in mind right now is not today’s tape but this:

That’s a nice double top, wouldn’t you say? If we close below 768, all hell will break loose. I am not saying that will happen today, but it might happen Monday.
[some content removed upon 3rd party request]

Also, light sweet crude futures (CLZ8) are touching the 50 mark – this must be below the current production costs for most OPEC members.

UPDATE 10:18am EST: For your convenience here’s an updated SPX chart including the new corrected RTs:

Erik over at TradingAddicts posted the average crude production cost – which is very interesting in the context of light sweet crude hovering slightly above 50:

UPDATE 10:40am EST: Glad I got out of those calls right away – gold star to myself for good timing. Would have been actually faster wasn’t I so busy spoiling you leeches. Anyway, Berk points out that the wave up looks like a nice a,b,c.

UPDATE 10:49am EST: I just scalped a few points with another call. Watch the 1.055 pivot on the Yen (@6JZ8) futures.

UPDATE 11:02am EST: Back in calls – looking good so far – will cut at 1118 pivot on NQ. BTW – check this out:

UPDATE 11:18am EST: This might be it for our little rally. Yen is holding slightly below its pivot and my stochastic says that it’s oversold. If the Yen rallies from here, watch out below for equities.

UPDATE 11:36am EST: Okay, the next leech who asks me to post my Yen chart gets booted off the blog. Here it is – make a style in TOS and watch it – I have been posting this 100 times in the last few months – grrrrr.

UPDATE 11:44am EST: Okay, in case we plunge – I do like DRYS, GNK, MOS maybe, WYNN, and especially RIMM. Anyone else? Shoot out some symbols please – you leeches are useless today. I’m working my ass off over here – show me some love – I can’t do it all on my own (kudos to Erik again – he’s on fire lately it seems).

UPDATE 12:01pm EST: ES futures dropped below S1 – I’m sure there will be a retest. Yen getting close to R2 at 1.055. Watch this level like a hawk people.

UPDATE 12:06pm EST: Here’s the retest – should be our chance to load up on puts.

UPDATE 12:19pm EST: Okay, this doesn’t make any sense to me – the Yen should have breached this pivot. I just jumped out of my puts again as I don’t like the tape. I just can’t have that Yen start tanking like this while it’s completely oversold. Again, let’s remember it’s expiration week, MMs are eager to push the market up. I’m in holding pattern right now.

UPDATE 12:26pm EST: Yen just dropped through R1 pivot as well – completely tanking. I’m stepping aside now, lost only a few bucks on that whipsaw but I’m not chasing this. Seems my initial instincts were correct but the Yen threw me a little curve ball here.

UPDATE 12:44pm EST: Unless the Yen makes a move we will not drop. Watch the 1.049 and 1.055 pivots on the Yen. Also, watch the 1.040 pivot on the downside – I don’t expect this one to give, but in this market anything is possible.

UPDATE 2:07pm EST: Paulson is on the tube – keep an eye on the ticker:

  • The word ‘regulatory reform’ = instant black candle on SPX.
  • Bla bla bla – housing correction was inevitable (now he tells us)
  • Paulson: Ooops – we screwed up by not regulating the financial industry.
  • Recovery first than repair system. Encourages regulatory framework so that these mistakes will never be repeated.
  • “GSES clearly posed a systemic risk” – now he tells us.
  • Paulson mentioned ‘systemic risk’ now the 5th time I think.
  • “Never been about the banks, but about the continued prosperity for the American people” – yeah right!
  • Reid: Will give automakers another chance to plead their case in December. Congress will return if auto industry presents viable plans for survival. I guess the ‘none of this was our fault’ argument didn’t stick – hehe πŸ™‚
  • Pelosi: Auto industry is not on the road to recovery right now. We want a viable auto industry and recognize how important it is. We are giving the industry time to come up with a viable plan.
  • Yadayada – Paulson is taking a stroll down history lane – I’ll fade it out now and watch the tape, hoping for a drop towards the close.

UPDATE 2:58pm EST: Yen attempting to breach 1.055 – careful it’s overbought right now. NQ at 1065 pivot – it’s do or die at this point –Β  one hour left. I’m sick of the back and forth – give me pivot breach for crying out loud.

UPDATE 3:05pm EST: I think we might have breached that pivot on the Yen. Still cautious because of my stochastics telling me that it’s overbought. It rarely lies to me – if we were lower on the stochastics I’d be jumping in here. Maybe caution will get the better of me today, but I need to stick with my system, even if it hurts and I miss out on a nice drop. Once you neglect you system you’re basically gambling. Even worse – neglecting your system and winning will guarantee you to get wiped out further down the line. Anyway, let’s see what the Yen does – if it keeps climbing here and NQ breaches 1065 I’ll pick up some SPY puts.

UPDATE 3:39pm EST: WE BREACHED 768 ON THE SPX – IF WE CLOSE BELOW THIS LEVEL TODAY WE WILL SEE A MASSIVE DROP.

UPDATE 3:46pm EST: In case you wonder why we just swung up. We touched the 1040 pivot on the NQ – I was holding SPY puts and sold them into strength right as it touched – got the perfect fill 2nd time today. There is a reason why I keep hammering those into you guys – watch those indicators and you will bank some mighty coin.

UPDATE Closing Bell: Well, Eric called it again – here we are at new lows for the day. What’s eve more important is that we closed below 786, which is an extremely important level. We bascially just confirmed a 5 year double top – you figure it out πŸ˜‰

Anyway, in closing – since Eric keeps pushing his USO chart I set up a comparison between the two (black is USO) – what’s interesting is that the SPX seems to react in an exaggerated fashion, while USO calmly points the way. Food for thought as to the nature of this correlation and how to use it as an indicator.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Erikd

    we will break these lows today – intraday.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    I am surprised that there is so little respect for such strong support.

  • molecool

    Everybody – just do what Erik says today – he was spot on yesterday.

    πŸ˜‰

  • sibekp

    Zero volume… institutions sittin this one out for now.

  • Tronchaser

    Weren't you the one talking about “recency bias” earlier? πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    Yup, that's why I haven't jumped in yet.

  • Chrys

    Mole, Berk – please check 2Sweets calculator…his reversal levels have changed from 864 to 835:

    http://traders.retracementlevels.com/2008/Novem

  • molecool

    This was supposed to be a joke, Tron. Indicated by the wink.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF 9.83 and no end insight to the drop

  • MaxPainMan

    wow, just saw a 20,000,000 block go on SPY

  • Tronchaser

    I know mole.. hence the smile. πŸ™‚ <—-

    A question of absolutely no importance — do you pronounce your callname “moly-cool” or “mole cool” or “molecule”?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    If not now….When?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wonder if citi will hit the $4 range today

  • b_rad

    anyone grabbing ANYTHING long for a bounce?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    SPX 10 points away from 768

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Sometimes Livermore's word “It's sitting that makes big money” applies…
    And it usually works well in the middle part of the run…which seems to be about here..
    Personally I do not expect any significant retracement…..
    But that is just one man's thought…
    So the best thing to do sure feels like not watching the tape…
    If one has a position, urge to take profit will be too strong..
    If one does not have a position, watching it go down and down …..would be too painful…
    Happy trading….

  • molecool

    see above

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • T.B. Aurelius

    VIX could press 90 relatively soon…

  • Growler

    yes yes and more yes.

    i'm sitting on my hands right now.

  • Erikd

    spot on on your VIX call yesterday.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/qui

    Poor Citibank…………………………………

  • Ukla the Mokk

    We're at SPX go long level of 776 and bouncing.

  • molecool

    I grabbed one DIA call for a 776 RT Hail Mary.

  • ZigZag

    You might be the next Doug Flutie. πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    Actually, I did work for the NFL until last year.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I was gonna do the same thing and I didn't … ARG.

  • Erikd

    It is past 10:30 and the gap down today held –we will takeout the lows intra-day. I'm still holding

  • lazydogbkk

    Either we will be up over 1000 dow points or down more than 1000 dow points intraday sometime in the next week or so.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Thanks Erik.
    I put it up before the close yesterday…hoping to assist any unsuspecting newbs trying to catch a falling blade…
    Not sure how much good it did…

  • molecool

    I dropped my SPY call with some profits. Will jump back in when I see the uptrend continue.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Doing what?

  • molecool

    Very much possible. I would definitely jump into puts if we breach 776 with confidence.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Reports that Cramers show has been pulled b/c the average invester has no money left to invest. Also he has run away with Maria.

  • de3600

    I can argue you with at ALL

  • malusDiaz

    If your a real n3wb, (I am!) then you should know it and be very cautious.

    Learning from other peoples deaths helps ensure yours is put further out.

  • molecool

    LOL πŸ™‚

  • Paleface

    I have a SPY 5min Prophet window. Every time I click go it changes the today's volume bars! All of them!

  • molecool

    I helped with the NFL.com refactoring effort. Look at the video section – I worked on all that.

  • Erikd

    this is a nice head fake. great entry to short here to take the plung below the 2003 lows. πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    It all comes down to the Yen holding this pivot – I'm not sure yet.

  • Erikd

    the bus is leaving dont procrastinate to long

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    You just love talkin 'bout Cramer, don't ya. ;-D I think Maria would rather die than be held hostage by Jim.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Even though the SPX was bouncing (and continues to do so) off the RT level, I bought a put on RIMM which is now going against me of course. I didn't trust the SPX bounce and I still think the path of least resistance is down. I will add to it if it reaches, *and bounces down* off it's daily pivot, otherwise, I will let my stop do its thing.

    http://screencast.com/t/AxsoN2aYa7

  • toad37

    Me too, greabbed 200 shares of SSO at 20.56. How amazing is this retracement tool of 2Sweeties? It's almost too good to be true… wow.

  • molecool

    Yen breaching that pivot and I'm in. I hate to gamble Erik – my indicators and charts tell me what to do. Right now everything is still 50/50.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    qqqq in the green.Seems to be holding up

  • gagelle

    I can't believe how low C is going.

  • gagelle

    I'm not the greatest chart reader, but on the 1 min. TNX chart, I see a mini double top?

  • gagelle

    Dow is up a little.

  • Paleface

    It was a rising wedge, but broke out to the upside

  • Growler

    i wouldn't be surprised at all to see C go under. this may come to some as “well duh” but having working in the mortgage debt/credit markets, this is HUGE.

  • Paleface

    Rally paused th 1st go short RL.
    Today RL – SPX 2:0

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I wish I could agree with you since I bought a put on RIMM (which is now nicely in the red, of course). But I think we're gonna rally pretty hard…and I could have, but didn't get in on it out of lack of trust. feh.

  • gagelle

    I agree–It would be huge. Probably have to be a government takeover.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    The government won't take them over. They will just keep injecting capital all of 2009 diluting the existing into nothing.

  • Growler

    Yeah Troy. You're right. They have something like 1 Trillion is “assets”.
    No way the gov. can take them on.

  • gagelle

    It's possible the new administration might appoint some people with brains.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    That's why Paulson pulled back on the TARP and decided to try to just keep the capital ratios up, rather than distorting a amrket that needs to be bottom fished by Pros (like the other Paulson.)

  • gagelle

    They may break them up into smaller units.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Others would call it a liquidation, AIG style.

  • DARKTHIRTY

    Gap closed, B down?

  • Erikd

    this rally was a fake out to sucker in the retail trader before we take the big plunge today

  • gagelle

    Thanks Paleface. I'm still learning this stuff.

  • molecool

    I just grabbed some puts.

  • gagelle

    Well, you were right yesterday. If you're on target today, I'll be one happy camper.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    mole, can you post a picture of your Yen chart? Whatever I'm pulling up, isn't anything like what you describe (yes, I'm using @6JZ8).

  • Fluke

    Hey E,

    What is the timeframe for this plunge?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I also added one more put to my RIMM position when I noticed the NDX make a lower low.

    http://screencast.com/t/1Nt1MRr7F

    The five-minute chart of RIMM offered more confirmation of a reversal.

  • gagelle

    It's amazing how the market works. I wish I knew more about it. I had a professor who was an ex stockbroker. She got out because she couldn't take the corruption. She told me once that almost everyone trades on inside information. This is going back 15 years or so.

  • molecool

    Actually, I just dropped my puts again – sorry guys – don't like the tape right now.

  • Erikd

    S/P will take out 2003 lows today before we have a bottom today that we can rally up from

  • molecool

    I posted this chart 20 times by now – anyone paying attention? I would like to focus on trading over here…

  • JWBlack

    I guess my input variables for RL were correct, after all.

  • Paleface

    Tomorrow the TNX leads IMHO. Sometimes the yen doesn't takes part.

  • Erikd

    she was 100% correct. you just have to think like a crook during market hours

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I'm in it.Β  I will let my stops do their thing.

  • Erikd

    I will post here today when I am covering. Today will separate the men from the boys πŸ™‚

  • Growler

    Ukla, I have the same problem. For some reason on Prophet the price action is all garbled.

  • molecool

    That seems to come naturally to me.

  • molecool

    You expect 768 to be breached today? (see my first chart above)

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Thanks for the updates, Mole. I wish there was some way I could contribute here, but I'm not qualified. All I do do is study your charts for hours to try and re-create. Hope someday I can stop being a leech and really help out around here!

  • molecool

    You can say that again.

  • Erikd

    Stay with your trading system and tune out the noise.

  • Erikd

    my system is saying 80% chance to takeout lows

  • molecool

    Send money.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    I surely will……I owe you guys at least that much! You need to set up a tip jar.

    Jan

  • Growler

    Not sure who posted SKF two days ago but what a great call that was.

    + 72 pts.

    Unfortunately, I didn't participate.

  • Erikd

    It confirms to me that what I was seeing was what another seasoned trader knows. thanks always for your input here.

  • DMS425

    WFC is going to own them before this is over.

  • Paleface

    oanda.com FXGame. Free realtime FOREX charts.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Erik….are you the same Eric over at TA?

    Would you mind my asking how you are detemining the breach?

    Thanks….

  • molecool

    Just kidding Jan πŸ˜‰

  • molecool

    NO, that's a different Eric, but our ErikD was attending that as well.

  • Erikd

    Well jump on this next big plunge today.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Thanks for the yen chart mole. πŸ™‚ I love you. And I scoff at being called useless.
    I'm in with 2 RIMM Dec 35 puts. But one thing about it makes me nervous… http://screencast.com/t/3DCGpCL4T
    I like V and APC as well, which I posted those charts yesterday.

  • molecool

    As I said – waiting for the Yen (see above) – not far to go now.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    My favorites…..SKF, SRS, FXP, EEV. Problem is, you could run a truck through the spreads. I've been watching the 3x ETF's also.

  • RoverOne

    How 'bout BLK for some puts? TM?

  • molecool

    Just yanking your chain, mate – you're one of my favorites.

  • de3600

    up a thousand on fslr neutral on srs and rut

  • Erikd

    We will drop 50 points from S/P high on last rally attempt today which puts us on a target of 758 today

  • Desperado

    After a bounce I would buy some IYR and/or SPG puts. A play on commerical real estate. SPG's debt is huge and it is tied into the assumption that CRE values will increase. However the supply and demand theory kicks in. Values down and debt needs to be refied. Hope this helps.

  • Erikd

    target is 758

  • Paleface

    I'm not a forkmaster but I fpund some interesting forks for today:
    http://screencast.com/t/8KKllzvp

  • molecool

    I like it. Under normal circumstance I'd say not because of the long term stochs, but I think it has another plunge in it if we drop.

  • suchen

    Qs look like a bull flag on the 5min chart

  • Growler

    yeah, i know you have. thank you for doing so.
    for some reason my TOS is all fudged up. it just won't show the same chart as u posted. oh well. sucks to be me

  • Growler

    thanks Paleface

  • Erikd

    breakdown is starting here just look at 2min 2 day chart on $TNX XLF USO FXY

  • molecool

    Agreed.

  • Erikd

    Low for today should be by 1:30 – 2:00 today Jump in for a quick ride down then cover

  • Erikd

    You just aint as big of crook as me πŸ™‚

  • Rolie

    Short COH and LH medium term. Long S&P with stop @ today's low.
    Got out of FSLR yday – damn!!!!!

  • sibekp

    Will we have enough momentum to break below 776 today? We didnt really test that 776 too heavily. Maybe a chance we double bottom off of 776… bring more bulls in for a suckers rally.

  • gagelle

    I don't know how much truth there is to this but I saw this trader's video the other day and he said that there were a tremendous amount of puts written that will expire worthless this month if the market doesn't rally on Friday. He believes that stocks will be pushed up tomorrow to avoid this.

  • Growler

    SH

    This guy has about a 3.20 – 4.00 move potential.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Growler52/folde

  • T.B. Aurelius

    That is a very humble comment Erik…..I think……
    I will wait to see if you turn obnoxious, my signal to cover….
    Just kidding….

  • Erikd

    last chance to jump in here for the big plunge!!!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Ye Mole where is the “Video” you worked on?

  • gagelle

    USO going up.

  • observer

    yen is starting to sell-off..rather large volume on the ask..intervention??

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Stop going around and reading and listening to anything and everything G.
    Soon or later your head will be filled with everything but your own view…….
    Going insane is your goal??
    Very easy….Just keep the incoming data overflowing at all times…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    little bit of a rally hold on

  • de3600

    auto worker deal market found the golden fart imho jumped out with profits on fslr

  • lazydogbkk

    if they bail out the automakers, i'm still looking for a +1000 day in the dow and/or one of the top 3 biggest one day gains in the market.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    If you don't mind me coaching you a bit Erik…
    It pertains to my tendency I often witness within…
    When you are in tune with the market, and in the flow…
    That is when you have to be even more docile and calm…
    Adrenaline will chip away the alignment….
    Happy trading…

  • observer

    i don't like the yen action here…
    guys, you can still get the big plunge here just be very careful with tight stops.
    i am not going to trade this market until monday morning.

  • Chrys

    This would be a god awful place for a short squeeze, wouldn't it? Some EWT counts call for a Major 3 low at 775. Not sure what there tagret is for Major 4 but I think he said Major 5 down around 600.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    The idea behind Market Makers wanting the fewest calls AND puts to expire in the money is Max Pain theory, which is currently at 95 on the SPY (as of last night.) I've heard too schools of thought on this. First, if it's close to it, the MMs and the smart money have the strength to push the market a short distance. However, if we're a long distance below that mark, I've also heard the theory that they short a lot of stock to cover their butts.

    I had never heard of this before a few weeks ago, so I'm very new to it.

  • de3600

    srs just dropped 45 dollars off its high

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Hey! I resemble that remark. I will, however be dumping all of those calls at 2Sweets' 835 level and scaling into puts at that point.

  • Erikd

    weak hands being flushed out here. boys stepping aside – Men will take it down

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Sound right..Just right…

  • molecool

    I start to agree – just lost a few bucks and was lucky to get out fast enough. Which again teaches us to never guess the direction of the market. Watch your indicators – which is what I did but it didn't work out. That of course happens every once in a while, especially during expiration week.

  • Erikd

    Thanks

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Actually, a Tip Jar would be a good idea. You guys are putting in a tremendous amount of time and bandwidth to share your experience with us. I'd personally like to send you guys a few digital beers.

  • MaxPainMan

    100% cash till after thanksgiving

  • molecool

    This is not a dick swinging contest, Erik – everyone: follow your indicators no matter what anyone says.

    Unless the Yen makes a move we will not drop. Watch the 1.055 pivot on the Yen.

  • de3600

    rofl

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    (Crosses fingers and wishes really hard) C'mon Volcker!

  • sibekp

    I am on the exact same boat. If we double bottom I think we rally. But if we go high enough now (and my thought was also the 2 sweets 835) then we may build selloff momentum in the last hour to fall through 776. We'll see how this plays out.

  • Erikd

    Will tone it down πŸ™

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I did, but I'm using 2Sweets' system, which has been beautiful for me so far. I'm out at 835, though. I have no desire to fling myself against the brick wall above that.

  • de3600

    I think this auto news just fucked everyones game plan

  • Paleface

    This market is too good for us we got a 2nd last chance:)

  • molecool

    I don't mind you having an opinion, but I frankly think that arrogance and over-confidence kills traders. That's why I am so cautious with my entries, especially during expiration week.

    I'm not saying that we're not dropping today, but there are certain market forces that need to confirm that. So far the TNX is rallying back up and the Yen is coiled up in a fetal position. So, don't take this personally – I'm trying to discourage emotions on both ends of the spectrum: optimism and pessimism.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… That is called pinning. Watch some of the big movers tomorrow. And watch them close rust pennies above or below an even number. It is pretty odd to watch GOOG, stop on say $300 even (just an example), on expiry…

    And yes… typically the MMs are playing the opposite side of Max Pain, as they want the Max Gain… (I.E. naked puts AND naked calls both expire worthless).

    SkΓ₯l!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… That is called pinning. Watch some of the big movers tomorrow. And watch them close rust pennies above or below an even number. It is pretty odd to watch GOOG, stop on say $300 even (just an example), on expiry…

    And yes… typically the MMs are playing the opposite side of Max Pain, as they want the Max Gain… (I.E. naked puts AND naked calls both expire worthless).

    SkΓ₯l!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Take it from one who knows right….

    SkΓ₯l!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    You're certainly not Forkmaster, as I can clearly read the data on your charts. Serg was great, just a little cluttered for some people.

    Well done…

    SkΓ₯l!

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Well said, mole! But I'm slowly loading up my trunk. My edge is pretty clear: I need to see a result by Monday. Small positions, small risk. What's it is what I can lose. No stoploss.

  • gagelle

    mole, you're looking at the December Yen futures?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    So far today has been like a grind. SPX hit the go long RT level and I did nothing out of distrust. Then entered and later added to my RIMM put position. In the red now with that, but I'm actually hoping we continue to rally to the intraday “go short” RT level, which, if the SPX forms a higher low, just might happen. Then I'll take a serious look at V. I'm at my max allowable risk on RIMM so I won't add to it.

    http://screencast.com/t/B7hPldkEVI2

  • Erikd

    $TNX USO not filling gap.

  • molecool

    Dec puts?

  • molecool

    TNX 32.16 right now – let's keep watching that level. The more it drops the better for the bearish case.

  • molecool

    Yes, all day.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Sure. Out the money, 70.

  • Erikd

    T.B your $VIX analysis is confirming the breakout and is bouncing off the retest – spot on

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Regarding the stoploss. In this kind of market, I open a position when I see an edge and I hold onto it until I feel uncomfortable or happy.

  • gagelle

    I got the Yen chart on TOS. I just can't get it on prophet charts.

  • molecool

    Can you say Whipsaw Central? Raise your hand if you hate this tape.

  • de3600

    hand

  • molecool

    Yes, I just talked to Berk about that – we are getting sick of those constant interventionals. Berk plans
    to call the treasury and tell them he made some bad investment decisions that could bring down the market. BAILOUT PLEASE!!!

  • ProZachJ

    I would just like to tell everyone that 2sweeties model for USDJPY has banked me some serious coin today!

  • molecool

    Can you post a chart when you do the retracement levels? It's tough to do them all in the morning. I can repost them above so everyone sees it.

  • Erikd

    beautiful channel that has formed on a 2day 2min chart
    charts are painting a picture

  • ZigZag

    Two hands..

  • Fluke

    E,

    Are you still expecting the plunge later on ?

  • gagelle

    TNX falling

  • gagelle

    Isn't this fun? I think I'm getter an ulcer.

  • Erikd

    my model is up to 93% that we make new lows today

  • de3600

    Its like the market is on speed wish it would smoke some pot and mellow out

  • gagelle

    You still getting out between 1:30 and 2PM

  • etechpartner

    1.5 hands – the other half got sawed off

  • toad37

    that auto news only caused mild selling, looks like market has a little strength to push into opex is my opinion.

  • molecool

    Whatever drug it is – it's toxic to traders. Staying out until I see momentum staying in one direction for more than 5 minutes.

  • perspective

    in the longs favor (full disclosure, i just went long) you have the gold/silver (gld/slv) ratio starting to break down. anytime in the past two months when the rsi gets above 70 on the hourly chart, it's telling a reversal is near. if it breaks what looks like a h&s pattern, the crisis (for now) is over. congratulations dogma shorts, party may be getting late.

    guidepostings.blogspot.com

  • gagelle

    TNX still falling. Yen seems to be in a rising channel?

  • Erikd

    no my model now shows that we are in for a bigger sell off then what was anticipated
    my timing might be a little early

  • ProZachJ

    My way seeing a head and shoulders on the 1 min USDJPY….Could be wrong but thought I'd get some other eyes on it.

  • Growler

    smoking as we speak.

  • ProZachJ

    Absolutely if there are others trading USDJPY I would be glad to post
    a chart. However I will probly post the forward day at around 6 or 7
    the night before. As the forex 24hr close is at 5 my time.

    Also Im not sure how to get the chart out of my trading platform and
    onto the forum. But I can probly figure it out.

    Zach jones

  • gagelle

    Despite what the DOW is doing, my positions are doing well. I have to go out for an hour. Don't know whether to wait or take what I have.

  • de3600

    I am hoping for a rally it will make shorting again son much eaiser the is a ball buster

  • Erikd

    we are falling below the trend line on a day chart. this is where we start building momentum

  • ProZachJ

    I dont really trade of the one minute but I glanced at it…probly shouldn't have

  • Erikd

    G are you still on this ride?

  • Growler

    If anyone is interested, the Triangle on SH (while a little ugly) is starting to breakout.

    Please let me know if I'm wasting my time posting this shit.

  • gagelle

    Yes, I have to be away from my computer for an hour and feel uneasy about that.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I like your trading style Moon…

  • gagelle

    Thanks Erikd.

  • Erikd

    I would wait but that is my view

  • Erikd

    follow USO it is leading indicator today so far

  • etechpartner

    Not at all, just wish i knew what timeframe your looking at. 5m ? 3m and what size chart 1 d, 5d 10d ?

  • Growler

    cool. 5d / 15min.
    2 day 5min is also helpful

    *Be sure to confirm with indicators. I'm not too confident this pattern will bare fruit

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    I've been frustrated with stoplosses, but I needed some sort of criteria. I've lost a lot of opportunities, which is frustrating, but I feel that I'm trading with more confidence and success than before.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    Moontrader, predicts market bottom on the 24th–which very coincidentally is the first day of the new options—Options expire week is turning into a disaster, so it makes sense that new LONG activity will start this Monday or Tuesdday
    http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/14/spotlight.htm

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Erikd,

    What time frame/duration are you watching on the USO?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    ErikD spot on with USO. Its going back to the lows of the day.Stocks soon to follow

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    If Yen breaks below 94.5, it'll easily slid to 90.

  • CM

    here comes Paulson…..watch how the market tanks as he speaks. Nobody has any confidence in him.

  • Erikd

    USO leading $TNX following as well as T.B. $VIX analysis confirming πŸ™‚

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    FRO DEC 35 call 0.70 up to 2.00, that price pattern seems to be repeating–FRO at $25 pays a 18 or 20% dividend

  • Erikd

    2 day 2min charts on all my charts during the trading day

  • tradingaces

    Talk of short selling ban being reinstated. Careful w/the shorts.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    The SPX is very close to losing the bullish case for the day IMHO as it's close to forming a lower low.

  • de3600

    why does this asshole talk during market hours (mildly humbling)are you kidding me you cant make this stuff

  • T.B. Aurelius

    You have good eyes…You see things others do not see…
    But somehow it seems others' trust on your judgment surpasses your own…
    At some point, you have to trust yourself…Of course, you are not going to be right 100%..
    But odds are on your side…
    And when the odds are on your side,…you must stand your ground and let the faith guide you…
    Bless.

  • de3600

    good they put him on mute

  • ZigZag

    Hey Z, Here's the SPX chart that I posted on the 14th. It agrees with moonie. πŸ™‚

    http://tinyurl.com/6brk2h

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Oil just making new lows now

  • Erikd

    This market is getting ready to fall off the cliff
    USO leading $TNX $VIX XLF all confirmed load up now for you more conservative speculators

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Wise words, Aurelius. It's hard to rewire the brain after a bad experience I had during 97/98. I started out with a bunch of money, made a lot, really a lot, then family, friends, and friends of friends came after me… and that was it, excess of confidence, greed, and proud screwed up everything.
    Late 80's I used to work on the floor, then I worked on the trading desk. I've seen all sorts of things, learned a lot.

  • Growler

    goog getting ready to break out (down) of a symmetrical triangle. intra-day

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Is anyone else seeing a H&S on SPX intraday?

    http://screencast.com/t/QsotzgZjD

  • toad37

    yep, got out of my SSO for a whopping $58 profit πŸ™‚

  • Bricks

    Every time Paulson says systemic…drink.

  • molecool

    Not super clean but at least wait for the neckline to confirm. A pattern ain't one until it confirms.

  • Erikd

    SPOT ON the left shoulder has formed and we are in the move to make the head then we will RALLY

  • Paleface

    Nice!

  • Fluke

    E,

    the head occurs after the plunge? sorry for all the questions..i'm a new trader but follow your commentary religiously.

  • Erikd

    other indicators paint the picture early by the time it shows up on the Indexes 50% of the move to make money is gone. just depends on your rythm

  • benji12

    i loaded up on puts only cuz Erik said so. haha

  • Ukla the Mokk

    um…huh? I'm talking about a H&S to precede a dropoff.

  • Erikd

    the head will be made during this plunge. this will be bigger then my head has been the last 2 days. and you can quote that!

  • benji12

    wow! Mole! FSLR hit your target of $90. congrats!

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Am I messed up in the head to think about going long SPY? I have puts on RIMM that are teetering…

    http://screencast.com/t/3v6b8Ey3jLN

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    click “PRINTSCREEN” on your keyboard

    open Photoshop

    open an empty window and paste in pressing CTRL+V

    otherwise open an email and press CTRL+V

    oh, and press “send”

    πŸ˜‰

  • Erikd

    T.B. how high is this $VIX spike going to go I need a prediction so i can see your depths

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I thought benji was banned?

  • Erikd

    C getting ready to free fall to the ABYSS watch it

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Looks like a falling wedge on the 5-min..

  • Growler

    GOOG broke down.

  • tradingmom

    Where did you hear that? Sources please. Haven't seen anything on other blogs yet.

  • Erikd

    the market is getting to have a ORGASM to the downside in the last hour today. IT is going to be bigger then i targeted this morning since it has held out all day. In My Humblist Opinion

  • molecool

    No way!

    Beanie was banned – he's an asshole.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I don't, and can't predict the future…
    So I don't know…
    Only thing I can see is what is happening now… and it is moving….

  • molecool

    1.055 on the Yen – only thing that worries me is that it looks overbought right now. That's why I'm cautious….

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    Ukla check this out JPM chart from yesterday and today JPM at $24
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OB1VqhTEIHA/SSSIQjDOC
    I'm going long TECH ahead of DELL earnings AH today, the pundits have been so loathsome against DELL all this week, that I think there might be an upside surprise. I have a microscopic position.

  • Erikd

    biggest moves are always at the extremes you are going to turn into a gorilla πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    No doubt – but let's pass that Yen pivot first, shall we?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    My bad. Sorry benji

  • Erikd

    molecool have your shit loaded and be ready to pull the trigger it is going to be very very fast it will drop without a parachute. please dont miss it

  • T.B. Aurelius

    It is all how you see them, no?
    Why not make that experience the fertilizer for your trading instead of keeping it locked up as recurring nightmares??

  • T.B. Aurelius

    It is all how you see them, no?
    Why not make that experience the fertilizer for your trading instead of keeping it locked up as recurring nightmares??

  • Erikd

    In my lowest tone possible lock and load it PPT cannot stop this!!!!!

  • Growler

    oh jeez….

    “_______ because of you I'd be able to feed my kids. Because of you they will have clothes for the winter. Because of you they will live”

  • gagelle

    I guess I'm back in time.

  • Erikd

    $1.50 oil at the pumps but who is going to afford that.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    People are buying up the Dec 100 calls in the vix. Over 1,200 contracts traded. Looks like people are betting on a spike up there. Keep in mind there is no other lines higher than 100 yet for Dec.

  • molecool

    Not in CA – those bastards always fuck us at the pump.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I would suggest you do that too…Odds are too good…

  • gagelle

    I'm loaded with puts–lets hope this drop happens. I optimistic. I still want to get out today.

  • Tronchaser

    It's already in the 1.50's here in Oklahoma (obviously an oil producing state)…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hop in Mole…
    Bus is leaving….looks like…

  • Erikd

    your christmas will be made for your family today!!

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    That's exactly what I've been trying to do.

  • Erikd

    below $1.00 for you then

  • gagelle

    It's amazing that the market is down even after the auto settlement.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    btw, did you read one of the books Tim has on his list, Trading in the Zone?
    Amazing! Especially for returning traders…

    market hitting new lows for the day!

  • gagelle

    Dow already dropped past low for the day.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like Erikd is spot on .Just goes to show that bears dont fuck around.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZXegmDGShU

  • de3600

    778 holding

  • ZigZag

    My GS canary is coming back to life. Been buying around $50 based on the lower trendline from the middle of September. Possible target is around $75, if I'm lucky πŸ™‚

    http://tinyurl.com/6jqsk8

  • gagelle

    I just want to make enough money to be able to move to LA and drink beer with molecool.

  • de3600

    maybe not

  • Growler

    C broke 5.00

  • Erikd

    Last chance if you are not in we are going to drop at least 50 – 70 points from here i beg you to make your christmas on todays move

  • Fluke

    E,

    how much lower?

  • gagelle

    Looks like Dow is fighting to stay below 253.

  • Erikd

    this is the shit you will tell your grand kids about

  • gagelle

    So about Dow down about 320 or so?

  • Erikd

    50 – 70 points below the 2003 lows dont miss this i am no bullshitting

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Free……Free from Redneckdom……

  • gagelle

    I'm just going to tell my kids I knew I guy with supernatural powers to see the future.

  • Tronchaser

    Hasn't been below 1.00 since the late 80's? I don't think we'll get that low. If that happens, this state will be in a world of hurt. I myself work for one of the major oilfield service companies.

  • Erikd

    no it is as simple as reading the charts

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I hit the wrong button earlier and instead of adding puts bought 100 straight AAPL ..
    I tried to sell that a few times within last 5 minutes…and…there is just no bid…..
    I will just keep them as a pet….I think…

  • gagelle

    Well, you're very good at it to predict a fall in the last hour of trading.

  • malusDiaz

    Erikd, I admire the enthusiasm, but hysterics are not appreciated.

    Realize that calm, cold, rational thought is the embodiment of the “Stainless Steel Rat”.

    Always be ready to live to fight another day!

    Losing your fur vs losing your tail makes the difference between bad looks for awhile and being crippled forever.

  • gagelle

    Don't feel bad. Happened to me more times than I want to admit.

  • Growler

    Erik. Nice Job.
    Big Props to You

  • Lori

    Are you out EOD no matter what?

  • molecool

    Well, in that spirit I followed my indicators and PROFITED. That's the Stainless Steel Rat Way.

    1+

  • RoverOne

    Are you holidng overnight?

  • Erikd

    this next wave down will blow your mind Its not about balls my model said it was 94 %

  • molecool

    SPX? Then it better hurry – frankly, if it closes below 768 I am a happy camper.

  • malusDiaz

    ./bow
    ./humbled

  • Erikd

    taking off half my positon here

  • de3600

    I love these guy every new low is shakey territory when do you panic

  • gagelle

    I'm out.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I don't feel bad at all…
    It got sold before the “Plunk”…hhhhh

  • Ukla the Mokk

    SPX is right at the weekly “go long” levels and appears to be bouncing. Adding to this is that it was the target level for the H&S I pointed out earlier.

    http://screencast.com/t/OQAim05cVHr

  • Erikd

    thier goes USO use 2day 2min chart and trendline to exit positions

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Although this isn't the end-all, be-all of indicators, the TRIN and TRIN/Q were telling me that the rally was going to reverse and my position is now up 22%

    http://screencast.com/t/VyXiSVMn

  • Erikd

    use 25% of your profits on this move and leave it on!!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    NDX getting close to that 1,000 mark

  • gagelle

    Hay everyone. Give molecool and Berk points up for providing such a great place to hang out and trade and for picking the best stocks to short.. And also many thanks and points up to Erikd.

  • Erikd

    yes took off half of my position and let the rest ride til tomorrow

  • Erikd

    when are you cooking πŸ™‚

  • gagelle

    I probably should have done that, but I don't trust options expiration day and we're extremely oversold. If we go down again tomorrow, I'll be completely shocked.

  • Growler

    GOOG chart.
    These patterns work very well as of late.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Growler52/folde

    I think it may still have another 10pts to go.

  • gagelle

    Really interesting way to exit. That's what I like about this place–learn something new every day.

  • Erikd

    thanks for helping me keep it between the lines today.

  • Growler

    Nice Ulka! Kick ass job. I saw your earlier post but didn't follow through with it.

    Have a good one.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    We are now below the low set in late 03, which, since I have puts, makes me a happy camper as well.

    http://screencast.com/t/ML0lgET9Nm

    Almost happy enough to go canoeing. Almost…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlUcUfHkdYk

  • gagelle

    I probably could have had a better exit. Well, next time I'll know.

  • moneyfarm

    Covered 2/3 of my puts going into the close and letting the rest ride. More than made up for my losses last week. Would love to see gap down at the open to cover the rest. Still holding:

    SPY Nov 77 puts
    RIMM Nov 40 puts

    Much thanks to Mole, Berk, Eric and the rest here who have provided guidance. When will the tip jar be ready?
    Nostrovia!

  • Growler

    Erik. I knew I recognized your face. You're a movie star aren't you?

    http://www.imdb.com/media/rm1616091648/nm0847727

  • Growler

    I heard a good arugment against using the TRIN anymore. Because ETFs can also be SHORT positions, they're recorded as longs to the TRIN. Anyone have thoughts on this?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    By the formation and the progression of the stocks…
    It looks like we have entered gap area….
    Meaning …either an up day or a down day will likely start with a sizable gap, followed by a run or reversal…
    It is a mine field from here…I reckon….

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Anytime Erik…
    It is so easy to lose oneself in all the whirlpool of action…
    And usually that is when the rug gets pulled out from under…
    Good luck buddy..

  • Erikd

    You are kind. hope you banked some coin today. just didnt want the market makers to take anyones money here today that was thinking that they should go long today. Tried as hard as I could not to piss off anyone without losing the rythm the market was speaking today in the charts. peace

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Erik…
    Last word from me today…
    Watch and guard yourself from becoming a victim of “Guru-dom.”
    It looks so sweet and shinny but it is the deadliest of all traps…
    Keep it in arms length…
    At least that is what I am watching out for, at all times…
    Happy trading.
    You did so well today…Ditto!

  • DARKTHIRTY

    up 800K on options today….very nice day!

  • Erikd

    the best thing is that you put your feet in the market everyday and tune out the noise.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Yes I did.
    A great book…

  • Tronchaser

    *cough* 800k *cough*

    I am definitely out of my league. Wish I had that kind of money to throw around.

  • Growler

    I'm very curious to learn more about predicting gaps. Do you have any recommendations?
    The only way I've found success is to simply check the futures at night and in the morning. other than that, it's a crap shoot for me.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I think what you said here is what it's all about.
    One should come here to get consensus, view points, and positive reinforcement…
    Not to pick up hand outs…

  • gagelle

    The question I have is why USO is leading the market.

  • Erikd

    always let your winners run with at least 25% of your profits once it hit your target from when you entered the trade. especially with the type close we had. we will reload it tomorrow. peace

  • T.B. Aurelius

    You are a pisser Growler…
    And probably a cleverer one also…
    I am not that diligent…., so ended up riding the whole retracement…Hahahahhh.

  • DARKTHIRTY

    all in on a sure move

  • Growler

    well erik, i think you did a good job. posting on blogs can be difficult because you lose a lot of emotion/intention that a real voice communicates. i'm not sure if this is the place for me given my style of trading and usually loud obnoxious mouth, so i can sympathize.

    either way, enjoy the evening man. you earned it.

  • Erikd

    I have been injured for 3 years putting my model together. that was the only way for me to truly learn what iI know today.

  • Erikd

    I am still in with a half position

  • MaxPainMan

    umm, can i borrow some money?

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    if you need a refresher course on how to play SRS puts, here you go.

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OB1VqhTEIHA/SSXYPAaWf

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Not quite a “Prediction”….
    Hmmmm…How can I lay this out correctly…..
    It is more of behavioral science…
    I do not use any indicators, so all I watch is the price and volume movement itself….
    As hours of just observing pile up….you simply start seeing predictable areas, spots and shapes…
    There is no manual, as far as I know… It is all probability… likelihood…

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    XLE i went long at the OCT retest 39.9–who knows–it just might be the right Long signal__too good to pass that up. we'll see__what happens?

  • Growler

    Dad?

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    did I post the frankfurt overnight material here last nite?
    anyway that stuff predicted a 5% drop in the DOW was possible.

  • sibekp

    Thanks Eric. Your USO, $TNX indicators have been dead on accurate. You've been dead on accurate….

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    Ukla when I post same channel matches at my blog, I bring out all the trolls and nay-sayers.
    So, I stopped posting that stuff. Maybe now, I'll start posting it again.
    example, MO locked in a new $1.50 channel today–a buck fifty doesn't sound like much, but in ATM T5 to T2 options it's a 100% gain—

  • JWBlack

    That “massive drop” you mention above — in what time frame?

    Plus, There was a huge H&S on the SPX that went through the neckline in 2002, but it never completed. I'm as bearish as the next guy (especially after the inauguration), but 200 on the SPX to complete the d-top? Kind of extreme.

  • Growler

    screw the trolls. post away.

  • JWBlack

    Tomorrow's “go long” levels are 725 and 643 (and 509). 643 is 15% or so lower. Seems a bit too far away for one day, absent a true crash. Maybe a one-day wonder tomorrow?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I didn't play it πŸ™‚ I should have but SPY never gave me a warm fuzzy today. I'm in with 2 puts on RIMM and so far that is working. But I didn't like either of my entries and although this play is at a profit, it makes me skittish. Here is where I got in…

    http://screencast.com/t/9ImMwVmlKve

    My thought is that we either drop like a rock or rally huge from here now that we've established a new low since 2003.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Dude…IMHO, I think more of us need to post charts depicting where you entered and, if done concisely, why. It doesn't have to be while the market is open…do it at night. But to me, when I see what other people do, that helps me learn, since rarely is a candlestick pattern perfect. My entry into RIMM was atrocious today. SPY had bounced up off the daily “go long” level and RIMM had gapped down at the open…I should have waited to see if it filled the gap, which it did, and then looked for an entry. Instead I entered on a “doji” forming from under S1…but the doji ended up turning into a very bullish candlestick. Anticipation is death. Confirmation is life.

  • Bartholomy

    I was thinking that I was making big coins today….
    Still holding my short ES and some SDS bough at 84$ (on MA rebond)
    We see the evil deflation here, and MM will go down with it !
    How thinks that the us dollar is artificially high ?
    There's no return, I want good interest for my money. Look bonds, way up !!!!
    I call it again : I think bonds will be the next bubble.
    Market seems to anticipating the worst recession ever…. and we knew it for more than a year. $++
    I truly don't understand crude price, or maybe I'm just surprised and I don't want to believe it. Very happy that my sold calls were exercised on XLE.
    Be ready to jump in after wave 5 completion, If you stay cash you may get screwed, because inflation will be back with all the printing outgoing.
    You know my technique with covered calls to get in very cheap at bottom, very effective with high VIX, then sell the rips.

    Thanks again my evil friends, I'm with you folks every night.
    I'm so happy to not being alone with all this economic mess.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    What period and interval do you folks use when setting up daily RT levels? I usually just wait for 2sweeties, but I'm trying to do it myself now and I know I'm doing it wrong.

  • molecool

    It might not complete this month, but it will by early summer (after wave (4)). Consider yourself briefed.

  • molecool

    2sweeties has been posting countless tutorials – don't expect folks to keep repeating stuff all the time. I suggest you go to his website and go through his tutorials. Also, if you actually read his daily posts you should be able to pick it up.

  • jp

    Great calls Erik
    thanks for your your input

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I did, and I have.Β  But I don't enter them manually each day and never had confidence in what I was entering anyway because the charts I was looking at didn't match the “example” in his % calculator.
    No big thing.Β  I can wait for the email later tonight or tomorrow morning.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Erik begins with “E” – Evil begins with “E” – they're both four letters long.
    Hmmmm….

  • toad37

    I'm kinds with you Ukla. I just look at his basic pivots that he emails (this mornings were wrong but he corrected them) and go from there. I'm not inputting my own stuff. I'm just watching the SPX for now…

  • toad37

    I know, some of those points are pretty far away, but have you noticed we have been reaching them lately. πŸ™‚

  • de3600

    must be so easy to trade in asia we tank go short

  • Erikd

    tomorrow the fireworks will be wild especially with fridays options expiry. we will tee it up tomorrow.

  • de3600

    A few days Tn did a post if we continue to drop like this we will be at 0 in 25 days if we continue on the same pace If every trade day DOW drop 400 points 19 trade days will be done. America will file BK. Before you go nuts I know this wont happen just after market food for thought.

  • molecool

    Tomorrow options are going to behave like little futures contract – let's milk this sucka'!!

  • gagelle

    Thanks Erikd. I'll do that next time. I think I've learned more today than the whole time I've been trading. Thanks again.

  • gagelle

    Today was one of the best days I've ever had. Not only in terms of money, but I've learned so many new things. And I finally found the Yen chart on TOS. I was looking for it on Prophet Charts and couldn't find it. I don't think I signed up for futures charts. I have to check my account. But the way Erikd exited his positions was one of the coolest things I've ever seen–so calm and systematic–really an art form.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    CLEAN CUPS!!

    SkΓ₯l!

  • JWBlack

    It took me a couple of days to figure it out. I thought I was being dense, but then I realized that the tutorial, while clear, lacked some clarity. A case in point is the original retracement levels posted int the commentary here this morning. I had one set of numbers, mole (berk?) another set and even 2swt another set. In the end one set of numbers came to light as the one and only.

    (Don't be offended, 2swt. I'd still be will to pay for a private subscription.)

    Anyway, the answer to your question — daily should use daily, weekly should use weekly, etc. As for ODDS, that is more art than science. If you need more specific answers, I'd be happy to help.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Folks, normally I'd submit to you my interesting issues to watch for tomorrow, but of the 30 issues in my watchlist that I look to, I can find ONE…and that's the one I'm thankfully already in…RIMM. From a TA standpoint only, zeroing out all the news, everything screams oversold. In the wake of everything today, check out SHLD.
    http://screencast.com/t/La6h3ewz
    If that doesn't say, “Buy” I don't know what does. While it hasn't hit the 100% retracement, it is bouncing up off of a past support.
    I don't know folks. I think we explode with a vengeance or we embark on the beginning of the next depression from here (in the mid-term). And from a TA standpoint, almost every one of my issues would generate a beautiful “buy” signal with only one day up (like SHLD).

  • JWBlack

    Hey, mole, what is this “consider yourself briefed” thing?

    Generally, what is this “you leeches” thing?

    I admire the stuff you and Berk do, but if what you want is a following of masochistic lemmings, count me out.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Yay! Finally… after 360 comments, that's a record!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Yes, one of those best days, even if had to leave for work half the day.
    And practice is good, too, though sometimes what you gain could go up in the air the next day… IF you don't let the winners run… that's one lesson for the day.
    http://filelibrary.myaasite.com/Content/38/3858

  • b_rad

    Sorry, I'm not up on your strategy w/ this. Are you looking to buy way OTM puts on SRS assuming the market will go up and you'll profit here? Are you worried at all about volatility?

  • ProZachJ

    How I do the chart is I only put the levels on the side I am looking to
    enter a postion. After I enter a trade I put my position size into the exit
    side calculator and then draw and label those levels with the number of
    shares I need to sell. So….all that being said would you rather me go
    ahead and put the long levels even though at this point i am only looking to
    exit longs and go short?

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    is always good to be ready for both directions, but is up to you

    just consider what will happen if market turns all of a sudden: will you
    be ready with the support levels?

  • ProZachJ

    its not that I don't have them calculated…just that i only put them on the
    chart when the time comes…I want to stay focused

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    then you're perfect… do you think you may need the hourly USDJPY as well?

  • ProZachJ

    I am sure that I could learn to use it…but give me a couple weeks trading
    the daily to really get comfortable trading a reversal system
    I do have some time to trade intra-day most weeks. But not this week really
    as I am busy working on my local End the Fed rally.
    I just set certain levels to alerts and then when those levels pop up I use
    my laptop to make order that I need. Right now I am just putting stops
    after each level and basing my position size on a fixed loss % of my gross
    equity. I have also experimented with hedging my way down to the next level
    with mixed sucess. I am just trying to find the way that I am most
    comfortable trading that and that allows me to have large enough positions
    without getting wipsawed out because of tight stops.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    excellent

  • ProZachJ

    <html>
    <body style=”margin:0;”>

    <center>
    <table style=”width:550px; border:20px #eee solid; margin:10px auto 10px auto;”>
    <tr><td style=”padding:20px;”>

    <img alt=”Scribd: Publish To Millions. Share With Friends. Search Billions of Words.” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/logo_tagline_c.gif” />


    685586 has invited you to join them on Scribd.

    Scribd is a social community sharing original writings and documents with friends, family and the world.

    See what 685586 is up to!

    <center><img alt=”http://www.scribd.com/invites/6422409?from_email_15_invite=1&secret=4YM0MjkfXF6GqoFiH0mu4334VfyK97m1″ border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/buttons/accept_invitation_nonsprite.gif” /></center>


    If you think this invitation was not meant for you, please disregard this email. You may also report this to us by forwarding this email to contact@scribd.com.

    </td></tr>
    </table>
    </center>

    </body>
    </html>

  • ProZachJ

    <html>
    <body style=”margin:0;”>

    <center>
    <table style=”width:550px; border:20px #eee solid; margin:10px auto 10px auto;”>
    <tr><td style=”padding:20px;”>

    <img alt=”Scribd: Publish To Millions. Share With Friends. Search Billions of Words.” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/logo_tagline_c.gif” />


    685586 has invited you to join them on Scribd.

    Scribd is a social community sharing original writings and documents with friends, family and the world.

    See what 685586 is up to!

    <center><img alt=”http://www.scribd.com/invites/6422411?from_email_15_invite=1&secret=I8meV98tAFAJjF4gxhxs0VCtTsZGAmYQ” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/buttons/accept_invitation_nonsprite.gif” /></center>


    If you think this invitation was not meant for you, please disregard this email. You may also report this to us by forwarding this email to contact@scribd.com.

    </td></tr>
    </table>
    </center>

    </body>
    </html>

  • ProZachJ

    <html>
    <body style=”margin:0;”>

    <center>
    <table style=”width:550px; border:20px #eee solid; margin:10px auto 10px auto;”>
    <tr><td style=”padding:20px;”>

    <img alt=”Scribd: Publish To Millions. Share With Friends. Search Billions of Words.” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/logo_tagline_c.gif” />


    685586 has invited you to join them on Scribd.

    Scribd is a social community sharing original writings and documents with friends, family and the world.

    See what 685586 is up to!

    <center><img alt=”http://www.scribd.com/invites/6422416?from_email_15_invite=1&secret=NPTnasnBX8fuEdmfYxfVFaCUwFrb3T9h” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/buttons/accept_invitation_nonsprite.gif” /></center>


    If you think this invitation was not meant for you, please disregard this email. You may also report this to us by forwarding this email to contact@scribd.com.

    </td></tr>
    </table>
    </center>

    </body>
    </html>

  • http://www.urbanhydro.org ProZachJ

    <center>

    <table style=”width:550px; border:20px #eee solid; margin:10px auto 10px auto;”>
    <tbody><tr><td style=”padding:20px;”>

    <img alt=”Scribd: Publish To Millions. Share With Friends. Search Billions of Words.” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/logo_tagline_c.gif”>


    685586 has invited you to join them on Scribd.

    Scribd is a social community sharing original writings and documents with friends, family and the world.

    See what 685586 is up to!

    <center><img alt=”http://www.scribd.com/invites/6422409?from_email_15_invite=1&amp;secret=4YM0MjkfXF6GqoFiH0mu4334VfyK97m1″ border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/buttons/accept_invitation_nonsprite.gif”></center>



    If you think this invitation was not meant for you, please disregard this email. You may also report this to us by forwarding this email to contact@scribd.com.

    </td></tr>
    </tbody></table>

    </center>

  • http://www.urbanhydro.org ProZachJ

    <center>

    <table style=”width:550px; border:20px #eee solid; margin:10px auto 10px auto;”>
    <tbody><tr><td style=”padding:20px;”>

    <img alt=”Scribd: Publish To Millions. Share With Friends. Search Billions of Words.” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/logo_tagline_c.gif”>


    685586 has invited you to join them on Scribd.

    Scribd is a social community sharing original writings and documents with friends, family and the world.

    See what 685586 is up to!

    <center><img alt=”http://www.scribd.com/invites/6422411?from_email_15_invite=1&amp;secret=I8meV98tAFAJjF4gxhxs0VCtTsZGAmYQ” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/buttons/accept_invitation_nonsprite.gif”></center>



    If you think this invitation was not meant for you, please disregard this email. You may also report this to us by forwarding this email to contact@scribd.com.

    </td></tr>
    </tbody></table>

    </center>

  • http://www.urbanhydro.org ProZachJ

    <center>

    <table style=”width:550px; border:20px #eee solid; margin:10px auto 10px auto;”>
    <tbody><tr><td style=”padding:20px;”>

    <img alt=”Scribd: Publish To Millions. Share With Friends. Search Billions of Words.” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/logo_tagline_c.gif”>


    685586 has invited you to join them on Scribd.

    Scribd is a social community sharing original writings and documents with friends, family and the world.

    See what 685586 is up to!

    <center><img alt=”http://www.scribd.com/invites/6422416?from_email_15_invite=1&amp;secret=NPTnasnBX8fuEdmfYxfVFaCUwFrb3T9h” border=”0″ src=”http://www.scribd.com/images/buttons/accept_invitation_nonsprite.gif”></center>



    If you think this invitation was not meant for you, please disregard this email. You may also report this to us by forwarding this email to contact@scribd.com.

    </td></tr>
    </tbody></table>

    </center>