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Intra-Day Update: Chance To Reload
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Intra-Day Update: Chance To Reload

by The MoleOctober 23, 2008

UPDATE 10:05am EDT: I see the Yen drop slightly and the TNX is making new highs. YM is nearing a pivot of 8560, ES at 900 – I think we might get ourselves a little rally here. Wait… for…. it – I just grabbed some POT, which I regret, could have gotten better entry. I’ll sit out the rip and reload on my favorite candidates. As I’m typing this we’re pushing through 8571 – next pivot at 8800.

UPDATE 12:20pm EDT: Yen pushing up strongly now and pushed through the 1.0310 pivot. Stochastics looking good as well – good probability equities will keep dropping. TNX also decending and has given most of today’s gains. Might be a fake-out, but all we can do is to trade what we see on the chart. I just grabbed some DIA puts for shiggles and giggles. BTW, who are those asshats who keep buying AMZN?

UPDATE 12:27pm EDT: IF the Yen breaks 0.0104 today (or tomorrow) all hell is going to break loose. Good chance it’ll bounce back, but if it does strap on your helmets.

UPDATE 12:36pm EDT: Yen is on FIRE. We might be getting close to the big one – it’s at 0.0104 – if that holds we’ll see a monster drop today.

UPDATE 13:47pm EDT: Berk here…the answer to what the stocks GNK, BG, FSLR, MA, ICE, CHK, and CCJ all have in common is the ATR.  Average True Range.  You should bring up a ATR(10) on these puppies, and you SHOULD see why I like them…  These stocks are AVERAGING between 10% and 15% a DAY!!  If you trade options, you want to trade stocks that move.  This is a great way to find them.  I will touch more on this a little later, but right now, just know that big move = big money!!  That’s the way I play.   Nobody correctly answered this, but I give credit to Archangel with “positive beta” as being the closest answer.  Would also have accepted stocks that I am holding puts on RIGHT NOW (surprised none of you got that).  Thanks for playing…

UPDATE 2:07pm EDT: That should be our theme song for today:

UPDATE Closing Bell: Looks like Erik got his wish. I did grab some DIA calls once we breached 8580 on the futures. Still holding all my puts though – when I see the market push up 480 points in the last 30 minutes I know where it comes from, which is institutional buyers (i.e. primary dealers under the direction of the PPT). It won’t make a difference though. Bad earnings and chaos is going to keep making headlines.

I’ll do a brief market forecast later tonight. Right now I’m completely worn out – need to kick back a little and not think about the markets. Had a good day though – less profits than 1/2 hour ago, but not bad at all for a days work 🙂

Cheers!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Mr Vix staying strong. Those calls are staying strong. I own the 80 line.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    I am planning to go long UYG when it gets into the 4's. Currently at 8.58 Lets get this wave 5 underway

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I'm still all cash and reluctant to get back in until we get at least one day of a nice rally.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Will someone explain to me the relationship, or the inverse relationship of things like the TNX and the dollar (I don't even know what symbol it is) and the Dollar/Euro and the Yen to the market is? molecool and Berk are always talking about watching this stuff and I've never pieced it together for sure. All I know is that the Yen up equals (for the most part) market down. But I dont' even know the symbol for the Yen. I need to get smart on this stuff.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    They just added the 95 and 100 lines in the VIX for NOV. My target of them adding 120's is just around the corner lol

  • "mark"ofthebeast

    Hi ,
    Slope of hope is down.
    Thanks,
    molecool.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Need the cash s&p's to get more into my zone of 925-955 then i will put my shorts back on. Just a little more.

  • Erikd

    still 75% long, loving the bottom that is being put in today.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    nice buy in Erik yesterday. When are you selling this rip?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    that's a great counter-trend trade…Kudos. But I am curious when you are selling also. I REALLY don't see much more upside…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    /6JZ8 for yen futures on TOS. I will leave the explanation to Mole, who uses these far more (and better) than I do. Price is king for me, and divergent oscillators would be the queen. But that is just me.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    A break of 8700 in $INDU could start to get ugly…IMO.

    Skål!

  • Erikd

    close on the hourly chart on the s/p below 880. easy trade to manage! staying long otherwise.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Looks like it just broke lol

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I see that…Hope it works for you…Way to step up against the trend. That takes balls and skills. Again, well done.

    I, personally, expect a decent decline to be coming shortly.

    Skål!

  • Erikd

    until we close below 8300 on the hourly chart on the dow I will continue to be long.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Gotcha…your giving it to a little below yesterday's low. Well done.

    Skål!

  • RPinSC

    anybody having a hard time getting to slope, not that I am quite comfortable here, but…

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Hi ,
    Slope of hope is down.
    Thanks,

    From Mark of the beast. Apparently SOH is down…

    Skål!

  • Erikd

    10 day triangle still intact on hourly chart, yesterday and this morning was a very easy managed trade to get into long.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    These qqq's are week today.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes…I agree. The triangle has not been violated…YET. Hope you get out with some profits…or a very small loss.

    But you get a load of credit in my book for just taking the trade. Well managed, the opposite of what everyone expects. Nicely done.

    Skål!

  • Fergie

    I'm on the fence too waiting for the rally to continue before I buy my puts. Yesterday, I sold my puts way too early, but would've , could've, should've messes with psyche. I made money yesterday and that's all that matters. Trying to time the perfect entry is pretty difficult in this market.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, gotta love a weak tech sector!

    Skål!

  • Erikd

    Don't see any decline coming until levels stated in prior posts on an hourly chart are violated.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Absolutely. I sold too early yesterday too, but when we rallied 200 points at the close, I was happy to walk away with my gains. Easy come…EASY GO!!

    +1 for not letting the tough part of trading get to you!

    Skål!

  • Erikd

    all I see right now is that we are continuing to make HIGHER LOWS on the hourly closes on the indices! over the last 10 day period of time. these are great places to get long and to easily manage the downside.

  • old_lefty

    What do all of these stocks have in common, previous post. I have inside information so I won't answer. That have something in common that every option trader would like t o see in any stock they trade.

  • Erikd

    keep adding at the higher lows of this 10 day triangle. staying long until triangle is violated to the downside.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    This market is slowly dripping down

  • Archangel

    Positive beta?

  • molecool

    That's the way we like it – drip drip drip.

  • molecool

    New update above.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Ye Mole.
    Did you see a young punk asked me a Q yesterday?
    He said,”Hey grandpa are you the one who is short DDR?”

    ……………..
    I hold you responsible for this….

  • Fergie

    Mole,
    How are you tracking Yen? Since I trade Forex, I normally see it as a pair, but curious what you're using to see just yen?

  • ronamatron

    Probably /6JZ8 futures. That's what I watch at least.

  • Erikd

    Another good entry point to go long. easily managed

  • molecool

    Possible, yes.

  • Erikd

    alot of buying at the 880ish level – strong support

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I am taking the other side of your triangle…I see lower highs, and a nice consolidation IN a downtrend. Larger trend points down, and that is where I am placing my bets.

    Time will tell.

    Skål!

  • Fergie

    Many thanks!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Very close, but what indicator would I look at to measure beta?

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    let me guess…you think the triangle breaks to the upside?

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    What are you trading? SPY or equities also?

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Yes, exactly.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    This is a day trade I ran just now.
    Strictly by S & R.
    To me whole idea is load up with tight exit plan and move from point A to B. and exit at pre-destined spot without hesitation.
    If it runs further, well, that is not mine to begin with.
    As soon as I bought the puts, I put in an order to sell at the mark when the equity crosses 67, and it triggered.
    Profit is a little over 1k.
    I don't do this often, other than to have a little fun and a quick fix.
    Hope someone gets something out of this.
    Happy trading!

    http://screencast.com/t/dIQrASVZ

  • molecool

    My minions are always out there inflicting pain and insults.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I just bought some calls, and controlling tight exit plan.
    I am waiting for a rally a little farther…

  • Fergie

    Okay, I see that yen is showing .0103. All hell breaking loose until close?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    nope…these things are fickle. Judge it on a minute by minute basis…

    Skål!

  • ronamatron

    It will need to take out .0106 before things get exciting IMO.

  • Erikd

    SPY

  • Erikd

    thats the way I am managing this trade

  • molecool

    Everything is really at a tipping point right now. On a short term basis I actually think we're pushing up.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Back in puts…

  • Erikd

    that is the way i am positioned – heavily

  • fuzzygreysocks

    The one that looks “a little fishy”?!
    😉

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Target: 65.25

  • gagelle

    Mole and Berk, you guys are brilliant with your strategy and stock picks. Thanks again.

    For the future, when we're in an upmove–I've noticed that the use of trains to move all kinds of goods has increased tremendously. I watch the freight trains several times a week, and they're growing in length every week. I just saw one that needed three engines to move all the cars. I've never seen this before. Just an idea on a recessionary bullish play.

  • Erikd

    It looks like the bears are giving up the fight for today at this point.

  • molecool

    I would wish you good luck, but it would hurt my profits 😉

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Or 64.25….what to do…

  • gagelle

    Something too risky for me–someone on another blog is putting most of his money on QID calls. He claims it will make him rich. He has a group of followers and has made correct calls in the past.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    amzn is holding up lol

  • ronamatron

    That was one hell of a slice through the intraday high on the Yen.

  • Erikd

    so is AAPL. as long as it holds above the 88.00 level on the hourly chart, I see tech holding at this level and moving up. As far as AMZN goes,as long as it does not close below45.00 on an hourly chart it will be onward and upward. lol

  • ronamatron

    Next break to watch before things get messy is /ZNZ8 @ 115.75

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    That is a great leading indicator for a recovery play. Always watch the trannies. Trains and trucks for inside the US, shippers for the global view. We will touch on some of this once we think downside is nearing an end….which is NOT NOW!

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    It's all about timeframe….

    Skål!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Brilliant indeed! Berk, have you divulged the answer to your previous post? I'm at the edge of my seat waiting for the answer! Lol j/k… Jzt wanna learn [more] from you guys, that's all. (^_^) It is sooo much better lurking here, other sites are too slow & need bigger servers, imo. We even get great info here.

  • molecool

    I couldn't believe it – now there's a pullback but it still looks pretty strong. I do expect a retest of R2 again though.

  • molecool

    Let me guess – MOO?

  • molecool

    LOL – so far my account says they have been winning.

  • molecool

    AMZN is a bitch, twice it bounce back now from the gap.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Me too, Berk…I'm sure there is a lot more I could look at, but I just look at PRICE and look to see if MACD or stochastics are forming opposite high/low patterns from the price.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Ye evil ones!
    Am I missing something? or are we setting up for a sell off ?

  • toad37

    Certainly has that feel doesn't it?

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Boy these calls on the Vix are really moving up. There is no sellers its like you have to hit the offer to get in.

  • ronamatron

    Something tells me we'll see the yen retest .0104 and fail before the final hour in which case the bulls will take over. Right now though it's just not something I'm willing to put money on since the rest of my indicators aren't really lining up that way.

    Wait and see I suppose, the volume is still pathetic for the most part.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I think a sell-off is in store. But it might not be until Friday, or Monday even…have patience, have patience…

    Skål!

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    amzn could be a leading indicator for the market planning on going up lol

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Geez…inasmuch as I really would like to get into the action today, I just can't. VIX just seems too high for me still, even though it's down a lot from the highs today. Too nervous about a quick rally…that's what I'm waiting for to jump in.
    Better to have missed a great play (which I have) than to have rushed into a bad one.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Dude…
    Take a look at XOM 1 min.
    Those rat B. MM sweeping all the stops….

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Smaller scale sell off I mean….now….

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    I wish I hadn't told people to go long on WFR at 20.9 and now it's 17.
    I used 3% stop losses, I'm only out 8% or so.
    Well, anyway- I'm moving to all cash.
    I need to see IWM at $46, then I'll go long on tech or financial.
    DO.
    My DO is up today.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Bought more VIx i am now in the 80 and 90 lines.Mr Vix is on fire

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    I hope a hedge funds starts selling at the last hour like yesterday.Seems that everyday one pukes.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am out of puts

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Mr Vix is going to get even higher my friend ,its the sign of the times.Wait till this market busts down below the triangle. Vix is going to explode. That is why i am going long 80 and 90 lines. Look for this index to hit 100 lol

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Keep ye evil seeds coming.
    Grandpa is happy he got a new Tag day trading…;-)

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    2SWtrading , his IWM odds calculator it says to move in 100% when IWM is in the 46's. I've been following that odds making calculator for 8 month's__ Going long INTC

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I really think that 100 will not be the cap either. Once VIX breaks standard levels, the spikes are hard to gauge. I would trade it though…ATR(10) of 12+….Sweet!!

    Skål!

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    I just heard on Bloomberg, that it was the hedge funds that were buying up 72% of that sub-prime paper. I was wondering who was buying that stuff.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Long here

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Just as a note, BA is a stock that is on my list o' stocks that I sift through each night. Today it is one of the few that are up pretty good. I won't say what I do, but I use stuff by BA all the time…about 3000 hours worth of time…and their “stuff” really has really turned to shit over the years. It is no wonder they've lost so much in the last year.
    Do with this info what you will, but IMHO, whatever luster Boeing once had, it's gone now.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    The more i play the song the more the market drops. lol

  • molecool

    EVERYONE! Play this song!!!

  • RPinSC

    Berk, I may have cr**p for charting purposes, but I only found FSLR, MA and ICE with ATR's over 10%. Have I got cr**p?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Out

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Short here.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Out

  • toad37

    Huge rally or big sell off in last hour? EW people would say sell off right?

  • Growler

    Crap! I just ate the Brown Acid. : )

  • T.B. Aurelius

    short again….gosh…..

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Mole XOM is, I think setting up for a sharp fall into the close.
    And that probably applies to all energy.
    I am watching…

  • Erikd

    This last hour is testing the hourly charts – still long

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Good luck. Surprises will be to the downside.

  • molecool

    That almost qualifies you as a hedge manager.

  • ronamatron

    These spikes on the yen are poking my eyes out here.

  • molecool

    Thanks T.B., but I'm a bit cautious with anything energy related right now.

  • molecool

    I think we hit a new 2 year high.

  • Erikd

    and evaporation of my capital….

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Prophet charts has been producing absolute dogsh!t today. On 5 and 15 minute intraday charts there will be entire periods…sometimes most of the day, with nothing. I just have to click “GO” over and over until I get an actual live feed.
    Bierman from TOS says its a high priority to fix. Here's hoping.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am still watching.
    Possible sell off followed by a reversal…

  • ronamatron

    I think i remember 105 when we got bear stearned back in march.

  • molecool

    Gutsy move though – have to give you credit mate.

  • molecool

    I've had that problem for weeks no. Keep hammering Bierman on this. BTW, Bierman means Beer Man in German 🙂

  • T.B. Aurelius

    XOM cut off @63.50

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Well, despite Prophet charts giving me crap, DNA actually had a very nice entry on both the 5- and 15-minute timeframe, so I'm in…

    +1 Nov DNA 80 put @ $4.60

    I'm actually gonna try and hold this puppy for awhile.

  • toad37

    cut off @ 63.50?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I switched just now to rally side….leaning…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I don't blame ye, this whipsaw is a killer!

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Looks like dow is going to go green

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    UAUA, about 4 days ago, I Posted Chart –short UAUA at $16 = 200 day. I have 19% profit and I'm holding overnight to see if I can get a little more

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Sold the calls at profit, switch to put

  • ronamatron

    I've been holding /ES @ 873. Getting confident with it now.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    hey mole amzn getting closer to green

  • T.B. Aurelius

    It's likely a sell off, and I am trailing down from the cutoff point.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    ATR(10) (10 day ATR) as follows…

    GNK = 3.87 on $16 = 24%
    BG = 6.23 on $35 = 17%
    FSLR = 19.2 on $122 = 15%
    MA = 16.81 on $132 = 12.7%
    ICE = 10.76 on $64 = 16.8%
    CHK = 3.78 on $20 = 18.9%
    CCJ = 2.15 on $13.65 = 15.75%

    Those are the ATR(10) and daily % move. So, if you don't have that for your ATR, then I would say you have crap for charting, but I don't know what “C-R-*-*-P” would spell.

    P.S. +1 for checking my work and not just taking it as the holy oracle.

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Looks like you got your wish.

  • Erikd

    AMZN did lead first by a few minutes ahead of AAPL. lol

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    But will it CLOSE in the green?

    Any bets?

    Skål!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Get it??

  • toad37

    After doing this for a few months, I REALLY respect those that can do this for a living. God, I hope I'm one of those.

  • toad37

    You mean a stop loss?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    All my day trades, I set a protective trail stop as soon as profit goes into $250 or above.
    Means I do not leave a door open for a monster spike…

  • Erikd

    just be glad you are not a tadpole anymore, – soon to be a frog. take those leaps!

  • toad37

    This choppy action is making me seasick. :0)

    You are long still I take it? Hell I would l like to just scalp .50 or so. 🙂

  • ronamatron

    If the Yen jumps on the same runaway train the 10-year note is on I'll be looking to unload my /ES around 900 by EOD.

  • Erikd

    we will takeout the highs before the close today!!

  • gagelle

    Berk, the ATR says the stock will move but does it indicate which way–up or down? If not, do you use another indicator to determine that?

  • Dilbert

    Looks like a bottom today – advances=686, decliners=2761, BUT advancing volume=605 million, declingin volume only 402 million. BUY, BUY, BUY

  • ronamatron

    I believe god is still keeping that indicator to himself.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    RED

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    KSS, i can see $30.5 as the exit price on going long, I just don't know if 27.0 retest is the support.

  • Erikd

    get ready for the 3:30 push upward to the highs of the day

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Yes.
    Another point to watch is 65.50.
    If the drop stalls above it, it might be setting up for a rally tomorrow.
    Always leave the possibility open for both direction.

  • gagelle

    This is The Evil Speculator. We go to the other side for knowledge.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    All that tail upward on candles are the traces of sellers waiting and dumping their XOM.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Dont think so.. its going down.. i am playing moles song

  • toad37

    can't blame them. This market is sick…. just plain sick.

  • Erikd

    bears last stand for today it will end with the bull

  • molecool

    I'm worn out – tough to watch a tug of war for 6.5 hours. LOL

  • Archangel

    That's why I came closest to the answer to Berk's question.

  • gagelle

    Yes.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nice…I have been wondering about some issues of day-trading. I assume you trade the index ETFs (like everyone else in the world).

    My day-trade today was BIDU 210P. Bought in at $15 @ 9:38 am…Sold for $22 @ 10:37 am. I thought that was pretty good, but I was wondering what people hit on average when day-trading equity options. 30-50% seems to come pretty easily, but I just have not had enough experience day-trading to know whether those levels are consistently attainable.

    What do you think?

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, there are a few indicators that I use also, MACD, STO, MOMo, all at different intervals than the presets, but I look at price action to determine which direction the stock will be going. And no, ATR does not indicate direction, just that it will move, which is something I need to know before I trade options on a stock.

    Skål!

  • Erikd

    checkout that 250 point bullish flag forming inthe last 45 minutes on the dow!

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    Green 🙁

  • gagelle

    I think it also has something to do with the truckers having trouble getting their letters of credit.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    NEM, going LONG, retesting 6 year low. I think that's low enough, Plus I can see 27 or 28 longer term exit price.

  • Erikd

    well i was 10 minutes late on that last push but it did start again at 3:40 same as yesterday

  • Erikd

    As the saying goes – professionals close the market. look at the action the last 2 days at the close

  • ronamatron

    “If the Yen jumps on the same runaway train the 10-year note (/ZNZ8) is on I'll be looking to unload my /ES around 900 by EOD.”

    And I'm out @ 901 for +23 /ES points. Today was hell, i think I'm going to bed

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Looking pretty good on your part…Where are you coming up with this info…

    Well done man.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Ya…and Mr. Vix took a nice hair cut…

    Skål!

  • Growler

    I've been in and out all day. Thankfully I made some money. Un-Thankfully, I pooped my pants.

  • RPinSC

    Thanks for sharing that ATR/price=% you were looking for. Dummy here was
    looking at the ATR as a %….duuuuh
    Need some sleep…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Damn!
    I sure made a lot of money for TOS today…
    I gotta stay away..
    This site is e.v.i.l………..
    Bloody trading to ya all!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Rich folks??

  • gagelle

    Thanks Berk.

  • toad37

    any one short into the close?

  • toad37

    No doubt, that was hell…

  • molecool

    Why is this site evil? But thanks for the compliment! 🙂

  • molecool

    Absolutely – just said that in my latest update.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Due to my respect for the Gods of Trendlines, Support and Resistance. I took most of my shorts off the table when we approached last fridays lows in order to assess the character of any bounce.

    Was glad I did.

    Triangle scenario is officially off my table now (unless it's a much bigger triangle and B is completing now – unlikely).

    I don't feel so comfortable about the bearish look of the fall from tuedays highs any more. It's possible we could be seeing a small flat occuring during this bounce near the closing minutes, but I'm not betting the house on it.

    Flat C spike up coming is a possibility too, I guess… would have to see more action.

    IMO, many more IT and ST bullish counts have moved up the probability scale right at the moment.

    I'm standing aside now, with a decent little profit on my ES shorts from 960-ish a few days ago in my pocket.

  • Archangel

    Shorts being too frightened to hold into the close. Looks like we just kissed the triangle's bottom-side.

  • BigHouse Aka Mr Vix

    msft is going higher after earnings

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I did…DNA Nov 80 puts.
    Bought 1 contract at 2:52ET and when it bounced back up I bought 1 more at 3:22ET…avg price $4.40.

  • toad37

    Nice Ukla. Best of luck. I took 100 shares of AAPL home with me overnight. This market is crazy…

  • toad37

    Thanks for posting johnee. At what point will you get back in? PLease post when you do. The longer I do this the more I realize I have sooooo much to learn. I want to trade for a living and have committed 1 year to it. If this year goes well, then 1 more year, and so on.

    Do you trade for a living?

  • moneyfarm

    I bought 2 CELG Nov 60 puts in the last 15 minutes. Cost 4.70

  • fuzzygreysocks

    What's the acronym ATR mean?
    TIA

  • KingdomTrader

    Average True Range. If you use Prophet Charts see under Technical Studies on left side.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    Some other trades I did yesterday
    DO went ballistic +14%, UAUA short went ballixtic, cov at +18%
    Today, went long NEM 22's,KSS 27's,INTC-13.98, on all three I caught the Low of the day.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    WFR, I kept getting stop lossed last two days
    for a total loss of 8%

    I re-entered this morning in the 17.12 ( 3rd time is the charm looks like)
    WFR up 5% in AH.
    and right now its 18.70
    so If that holds, I'll be up 2% in total.

  • Hanse

    Would you please update the elliot wave projected charts. Definately confused after the late in the day rally.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hey Berk & Mole
    I am sorry I made a big mess everywhere here, today.
    I meant to walk toad through my thought process, and it spun out of control.
    Apologies!!!

  • ZigZag

    It's going lower now..

  • Ukla the Mokk

    My concern is that, on a daily chart, it pretty much bounced up off the 200 SMA…everything else suggests downward is the path of least resistance. I just hope that wasn't a higher low. We'll see.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    That's a nice looking chart. Hopefully a move up that big today will have some profit-taking selling tomorrow. Nice series of lower highs and lower lows.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Sure – I will try to remember to post my trades.

    I don't trade for a living. I have a day job. I am a humble engineer.
    But I live in Australia, so I work during the Australian daylight hours
    and trade through the night in the US markets. Physically unable to stay
    up all night though – except on a few rare occasions such as the crash
    two weeks ago – stayed up all night and banked some serious coin.

    Dude, if you can become a profitable trader in 1 year then all power to
    ya. You certainly are tapped into some good sources (that is, this site).

    It's taken me 5+ years to become profitable. Blew a lot of dough in the
    meantime. Summing it all up since I started, I think I'm still slightly
    in the red.

    Something 'flicked' on in my trading mind in the past 12 months, though.
    Not quite sure how to describe it. But since then my trading has gone
    immensely better.

    Cheers

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Nice work bruh!

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Oh… and I will get back in when the count is clarified and the
    volume/breadth/etc figures show their hand. At the moment there's too
    many possible counts pointing either way. IMO it's quite a tough time to
    trade – a lot of haze – any positions I take in the next 24-48 hrs will
    prolly be so small as to be not worth mentioning.

    I also watch closely the trades that Atilla places (
    http://xtrends.blogspot.com/ ). He's long at the moment, so given my
    uncertainty about the wave count and his (heavily) long bias, any small
    positions I take will prolly be long at this point. Will be keeping a
    keen eye on a bunch of overhead trendline and support/resistance levels.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I have never day traded this crazy.
    I was herding XOM at every turn.
    I was POSSESSED.
    POSSESSED = EVIL. get it? nudge, nudge.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am the least structured trader you will ever meet.
    No pre, post, or any trade analysis.
    (But I do study tremendous amount of charts and long hours.)
    All I watch is my Trading Capital.
    As long as that keeps rising, others matter little.
    During day trade, I will grab anything I have been watching, feel the sync at the moment.
    Today it happened to be XOM.
    I have done this trade with GS, AAPL, DIA, FCX…etc…
    I stay away from index when day trading, lackluster action….Indexes, I trade larger swing.

    When I day trade, I do not focus on percentage, but I guess average winner don't go no farther than 25% maybe?
    But my reasoning is this Berk.
    In day trading, I won't go in unless I am so sure of the move, I know it is moving, maybe 3,4,5 point.
    For that, i will pile on 10, 20, 25% of my trading capital.
    I used to have a fear about this thinking, “What if it moves so fast against me?”
    But the reality is that this is a day trade and, thing do not move that fast often, it was ungrounded fear…
    I think my capital grew the fastest when I was consistently taking $1,200, $ 1,500, $ 900, time after time after time in day trading.
    And in between, some of the moves will pick up a speed and i will involuntarily end up with $5,000, $7,000, …etc…
    But I wasn't swinging for the fence at all.
    I was just keep hitting singles.

    This is a typical action.
    I see topping pattern, I put in a single lot and watch, inflection point hits, and when the last major retracement peaks(I am assuming) I will load 5lot, 5 lot, 5 lot in a matter of seconds. another few seconds later if the move is correct, I am setting limit sell or trail sell.
    If the move did not come, my finger has already hit the sell.
    This is how I day trade…
    By the way, your BIDU trade is supremo.
    I am not familiar with the stock, for i never traded it.
    For me, day trading success depends on whether I can stick to consistent and reasonable profit taking…and do it over and over, and over…
    Good answer?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    My day trade time frame is much shorter.
    Most of the time, I will be in and out within 10~20 min.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader
  • Growler

    I totally respect your goal.

    Its taken me about one year to get where I'm profitable and can make a living. I tried to do it once before but I didn't comprehend the idiosynchracies of the market. After spending a year researching and learning and researching and learning….. I'm now back in full time.

    Candidly, I've yet to grasp the full genius of ES but do consider myself very fortunate to have stumbled upon it.

    I find scalping the easiest method to profit. As long as I take home X amount at the end of the day (literally, I transfer it out of my trading account every evening) I'm good to go.

    Anyhow, Toad37, for what it's worth, you're not alone. Keep it up!!

  • C.C. Rider

    Berk and Mole,
    Wow, I put it on auto pilot today and actually got filled at the lows. Net/net about 100 pts on the NDX for some major coin. I keep funneling my extra coin to bank CD's at a whopping 3.25 percent on 5 mo terms hoping my bank doesn't go under in the process. It is one of the big three, but still.

    You know Slope has the SLIX indicator, why don't you come up with an acronym for yours. I propose the EVIX!! As that is what's happening to millions of homeowners across the country. Unfortunate but true, and someone should prosper on this tragedy other than the evil manipulators.

    I say let's continue riding these waves up and down. Good work guys!

  • molecool

    EVIX – I LOVE that!! 🙂

  • molecool

    Shut up and stand in the corner for an hour. And no dessert tonight.

  • molecool

    When the 'storm' is over Berk and I will post a few educational pieces. I think we have a lot of work to do here.

  • molecool

    That's so funny – I actually have plans to move to New Zealand or Australia in the next two years. Only problem I see are the trading hours and there are obvious reasons you are not trading the Asian markets. I for one would probably not favor trading those kind of charts.

    Where in Australia do you live?

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Breaking news ” GE will use Feds commercial paper facility next week”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087

    Is GE getting week in the knees? Not good folks . Stock sliding after hours to 18.62

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Mole, I'm working on it. I just need to describe the tool, which I'm still figuring out how it's gonna work.

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like Australia lost its early morning gains. Asian markets open down. Guess people did not care about our rally. Good. Moon i looked at for graph . I think alot of people are aware of th etriangle pattern. I think todays late rally was to screw the shorts.This is a big fake out. Look for this puppy to go back down. I hope soon b/c i bought more Vix today lol

  • C.C. Rider

    Talkin' bout those girls in Texas!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvoeeq-BH4w

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like Sony came out this morning in asia with a profit warning ..Its down 10% already. Not good for the tech bulls.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Good move, molecool. Get the hell out of the USA while you can.

    I'm in the Eastern outskirts of Melbourne, Victoria – in the Dandenong
    Ranges. It's beautiful up here. One of the best places in Australia to
    live, IMO.

    If I wasn't living here I'd be somewhere on the South Coast of NSW
    (somewhere south of Woollongong, that is). I miss the surf. From
    experience, everything North of Wollongong is not worth it.

    NZ is also a great option. If Australia doesn't disconnect itself from
    the hip of the USA and chart its own course as an independent nation
    soon, then I'd be considering NZ as an even better home base as well.
    It's shielded from the rest of the world (particularly Asia) by the big
    landmass of Australia. Nice.

    But the other half of me wants to end up in aid work – back in the mire,
    so to speak. 'Tis the pull between self/family preservation and the
    ever-increasing need in the world.

  • toad37

    Growler, thank you very much for the response. And I do agree that for me too at least the scalping method is the best. Congratulations on your stick- to -it -ness. It is crazy how you start to feel alone as a trader. Most people think it's too dangerous, gambling, etc. I feel like with discipline, one can learn to consistently make more than they lose over time.

    Do they charge you a wire fee to transfer the money out each time? And is it way too personal to ask how much you capital you trade with on a daily basis?

    Again, thanks for the reply.

  • toad37

    5+ years… oh man, I don't want to hear that. Can you explain how you traded over those years that were not profitable? Was your style buy and hold? Were you trying to scalp but kept getting in at the wrong time? During those 5 years were you working and couldn't spend the right amount of time to see what wasn't working?
    Thanks,
    Toad

  • toad37

    Good luck, do you have a stop in place?

  • molecool

    You sound like a really cool cat – we should stay in touch. Maybe I come down to Melbourne next year and buy you a beer.

  • molecool

    Don't worry about it mate – whenever you can. Right now we're all busy trying to survive this crazy market.

  • molecool

    Not good? Dude, this is evil speculator – please rephrase.

  • Growler

    Well, it's definitely not gambling because I hate gambling and never, ever do it. Yes, being new to trading is a lonely process. Discipline is key.

    Re: Accounts. No charge.

    Re: Daily Capital. I usually work with 100 shares per trade and favor stocks that have a trading day range of $4-$15. Because I typically require actual confirmation from my indicators before entering a trade, a larger trading range helps maintain my profit (even though I may miss every part of a major move).

    Besides, stocks with a small trading range are too risky for me. Scalping $.07 with 5,000 shares is not my bag.

    Best Wishes

    Growler

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Ordinary people survive mole…. us wave guys flourish. 🙂

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Surviving and making money… f**cking yes.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Well… in hindsight I think I was unprofitable for probably these reasons:

    1. I trusted Elliott Wave International's wave counts too much and
    didn't balance my technical analysis with other indicators.
    2. I had a lot to learn about risk management. Entered too many trades
    too heavily.
    3. Was not disciplined in my trading. I let my emotions and desires get
    in the way of what the charts were telling me.
    4. I had no idea that the Great Debt Bubble could blow as big as it did
    and take so long for the wheels to come off. in every downturn I
    *wanted* to see as the beginning of the inevitable Big Correction but it
    wasn't. But it's here now…. finally.

    Plus there's also a level of intimacy one needs to obtain by simply
    spending time with Mrs Market. She's a bitch that screws around whenever
    you blink, but she isn't entirely unpredictable. After a while you start
    feeling certain feelings and you know the market is about to move
    against your preferred forecast. This just takes time and a commitment
    to get familiar. And I don't think it's possible to get that familiarity
    without putting your hard earned coin on the line (I hope I'm not wrong
    about that, or my prior losses are for naught!).

    Hope that helps.

  • OzAsh

    Here in Oz is not the best timezone to trade the US markets. I lived in Thailand for a few years – it is GREAT as you start work at about 8pm and are all done by 2am. Even better is Dubai.
    Ash

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Done.

  • molecool

    Dude, they just released a new album 3 days ago!!! FUCKING A!!! 🙂

  • BigHouse (Aka Mr Vix)

    Not good for ordinary people. But thats good for us wavers lol. Time to start playing this afternoons song .Dow futures down 76

  • OzAsh

    huh – you wanna live near the 'gong? Sheesh. Sunshine Coast up here in Queensland rocks!

  • molecool

    I think I just creamed into my pants – 8 fucking years since the last album. Check it out:

    http://www.acdc.com/acdc101/

  • Ukla the Mokk

    +1 for using fuck in all caps whilst referring to AC/DC.

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Not *near* the 'gong. South of the *gong*. Such as somewhere just off
    the coast just out of Milton, for example.

    Sunshine Coast? Been there many times. Granted it's much better than the
    Gold Coast – I'll give you that. Don't get me wrong, I've had good times
    there – but it's not at the top of my list. I prefer less built-out
    areas, more bushland, cooler summers and better surf.

    For certain there are about a gazillion less liveable places than the
    Sunshine Coast, though, that's for sure.

  • molecool

    This made my day – I had no idea – found the news by accident.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    83.55, which is just above the 200 SMA on a 10 minute chart and would create a higher high on an intermediate chart.

  • toad37

    That helps immensely. Thanks for the reply. I have had some of the exact same issues, and now I am trying like hell to focus on discipline and money management. I've got to that point were I'm willing to (painfully) let go of the idea of hitting homeruns on every trade and trying to be happy hitting consistent singles on a day in day out basis. These recent days have been nauseating and have tested my fortitude, but I continue to believe over time I can make this work.

    My biggest lessons have been from big losses. I think as a trader you almost need to go through that to have an appreciation from Mrs. Market Bitch. I have a huge amount of respect for her these days.

    Thanks again.
    Cheers

  • toad37

    I feel the same way about gambling, I can't stand it. That is why when people call what I do gambling I just have to shake my head.

    Are you usually doing a few stocks and trades per day? I have been doing it that same way, 4-6 stocks a day with 100 shares, usually a 1-2 point stop loss. I can't take credit for the entries as I follow a guys service. He is very good with a track record. And I learn all day as well watching what the market is doing.

    Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    What the hell does this mean?

  • moneyfarm

    Thanks. I'm looking for breakdown below 10.50 on VPHM to go short too. Any opinions on the chart?
    http://screencast.com/t/rmSx7mFjF

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    All the very best to you, toad37.

    I hope it takes you a lot less time than it took me. It certainly wouldn't have taken me so long had I researched more widely. Slope of Hope, Evil Speculator, Trend Channel Magic, Retracement Levels etc.

    You've been lucky to get into this at the *right* time too – right in the sense that sites like these lean bearish, and we are in the midst of one helluva bear market. I was trying to be a bear in a bull trend for many years – ugly.

  • old_lefty

    Toad, risk is the only thing you can control in a trade so learn to manage that extremely well. Sure all the TA is important, but with excellent risk management your analysis can be wrong and you can still survive.

  • toad37

    old_lefty,

    I am trying to focus on just that. Thanks for the words. I will take them seriously.

  • toad37

    Thanks johnee, you too. Very much appreciate you sharing your experience. It really helps.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Means new post…
    about time… 230+ comments!… that's a lot! E.S. is getting too popular. 🙂
    Pretty soon people will be asking for Mole & Berk's autograph, lol.

  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Now this is the place (Queensland) – relaxed, sunny and growing. http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com. By the way I am a Kiwi and my avatar is a Kea – a curious and mischievous parrot native to NZ. My surname is Keall.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, it was a good answer. Thank you. I am fairly new to day-trading, so I am quite curious as to how people that have been doing it, do it. I appreciate any insight, especially since most people will just trade SPY or /ES. That is just not for me. I like movement.

    Thank you very much for putting in the time to answer me fully.
    May the trading gods smile upon your account!

    Skål!

  • Growler

    I usually only trade two stocks per day. I set my stops slightly below the trend lines. The move can take 30 sec. or 30 mins. I keep my stops very tight in this market but depending on the internals will at times allow wider adjustments as needed.

    Truth be told, this market is like a slot machine my style of trading. (For instance, SKF swings so much, it's like picking low hanging fruit. ) When it's over, I'll have develop a new strategy.

  • toad37

    Yeah, when this crazy volatility is finally over, we'll all have to alter our strategy I imagine. ;0)

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yes, it was a good answer. Thank you. I am fairly new to day-trading, so I am quite curious as to how people that have been doing it, do it. I appreciate any insight, especially since most people will just trade SPY or /ES. That is just not for me. I like movement.

    Thank you very much for putting in the time to answer me fully.
    May the trading gods smile upon your account!

    Skål!

  • Growler

    I usually only trade two stocks per day. I set my stops slightly below the trend lines. The move can take 30 sec. or 30 mins. I keep my stops very tight in this market but depending on the internals will at times allow wider adjustments as needed.

    Truth be told, this market is like a slot machine my style of trading. (For instance, SKF swings so much, it's like picking low hanging fruit. ) When it's over, I'll have develop a new strategy.

  • toad 3,7

    Yeah, when this crazy volatility is finally over, we'll all have to alter our strategy I imagine. ;0)