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Intra-Day Update: Go trading bots, go!!
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Intra-Day Update: Go trading bots, go!!

by The MoleDecember 31, 2008

UPDATE 11:00am EST: So, right at the open we cut through the 890/86 RL like a hot knife through butter. I think the important lesson learned here is that RL percentages lose a bit of their luster during holiday weeks. I’m not complaining mind you – 900 is in reach right now and I couldn’t be happier. Give me 20 more points, Santa, I’ve been so nice naughty all year, after all! What? I have to wait another year now? Craaaaaaaapppp!!!!

Otherwise I have not much to report – I would recommend keeping your exposure small. Yes, I know I sound like a broken record and we have rallied quite a bit since the 850s but let me remind you all that we’re not running a casino here. As traders we need to realize when market forces reach a level of randomness that exceeds our ability to predict our edge. We had a nice run to the upside – the Zero called it – let’s take profits if you’re long and call it a year. 2009 is going to be fun – that’s for sure. I personally am pumped – how about you guys?

UPDATE 11:30am EST: Ding Ding Ding Ding!!!! 900 reached and VIX is below 40 – smashing, baby, yeaaaah!!!!

UPDATE 12:13pm EST: I just checked the medium term stochastics on the averages and boy, are we overbought.

Maybe – just maybe – I should not be greedy and start loading up on long term options right here. My greedy little reptilian brain tells me to wait for 920 but looking at those stochastics I think a drop is imminent.

UPDATE 2:25pm EST: Sorry for being quiet in the past two hours but I had a long conversation with Berk on whether or not to grab our long term puts at 900 or not. We were looking at SPY June 65 puts and while we’re debating the issue, flipping through charts etc. those buggers suddenly change from 2.20 to 1.95 (has pushed back up a little since). And I’m asking Berk – what the heck just happened – did we rally or something? And sure enough – seeing the SPX at 908 changed the equation.

Thing is this – we have breached the 903/94 RL which posed massive resistance – maybe we have not breached it permanently but it shows that it’s vulnerable. The next RL is 923, which is light years away. In between is some strong resistance based on our TA around 911. Berk and I are watching that level like hawks as we are ready to pounce. I doubt that we hit 923 today but 910 might be in the cards assuming we get an EOD rally.

Either way, the odds are that this rally will complete either right here, at 911 or 923. We might see 957 next week, but does it really matter if we grab June puts at a VIX sitting below 40?

BTW, in other news – crude just rocketed 12%+ today.

UPDATE CLOSING BELL: Well, Berk and I crossed the rubicon and started to load up on those June SPY puts – we got them at 2.09 – damn market had to drop at 3:59 – LOL. Now, I think this is a pretty defensible play. If we hit 911 I’ll scale out again and re-grab them at 923 – same game if we breach that one – re-load on 957. BTW, in case you don’t know – it’s 4:05pm right now and the main index puts (QQQQ, SPY, IWM, DIA) trade until 4:15pm – good to know if you change your mind about loading up.

Anyway, Happy New Year to all of you leeches – it’ll be a great year for us, I’m sure – just make sure you stick around. I’m off to the strip joint to get my favorites booked for that NYE party πŸ˜‰


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mr Vix is now at 39 πŸ™‚

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Were still creeping up fighting the R1 daily pivot all my indicators show that we have some upside potential left although I don't think we'll push pas the 903/900 RL. Nice dip below 40 in the VIX first time below 40 since the beginning of September.

  • anon

    Want to say your Dec 30 post was excellent

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks – the new brain implant seems to function just fine. I still have to fine-tune that emotion chip though….

  • Frog

    I think too much of the market is caught short and doesn't want to step in front of the Obama rally train. Any hedge funds that have to sell will probably not sell today, and be a day or week late delivering the check.

  • molecool

    Oh – sweet mercy!!!! It's Christmas over here in the evil lair!

  • benji12

    geeez…you see gnk, mole??

  • urszula

    Happy New Year, guys!
    The humour, the vids, the banter, the charts = devilish, pleasing; time spent here is well-spent.

  • Jammer63021

    Thank you guys for one of the best market analysis web blogs in the universe. Dont think for a moment that we are not hanging on every word and looking forward to every post, even if your skill leaves many of us at a loss on how to offer any new ideas of merit. May you be blessed with a healthy happy and profitable 2009 and may we all be blessed to continue to be the beneficiaries of your superior analysis.

  • Keirsten

    Happy New Year! This one is going to be delicious.

  • toad37

    Gotta love the lower VIX!! Friday should be similar to today right?

    Thanks for all the great posts Mole and Berk.

  • molecool

    That's why I got out yesterday but I would not have expected such a rally. This is going to be a sweet short next year…

  • Ralph_Lhama

    Mole / Berk,
    I've been a long time lurker and am relatively new to this game, but have to say your analysis is awesome and has taught me a bunch. Unfortunately day job makes it difficult to post (gov't gig) but I do follow throughout the day. When the time comes for you to open your gift from santa, will you buy ITM, NTM, or OTM?

  • molecool

    Very good question – as you can see VIX has been dropping – so, I would probably grab tons of far OTM options. Especially if we get that VIX closer to 35. At that point Berk for instance anticipates tons of profits in increasing IV alone.

    I think we can push higher – I don't want to stretch my luck here but I believe 920 is a possibility.

  • planetelex

    PAAS looking good for shorting here….

    http://screencast.com/t/j7FeYEDgnZ

  • BalaB

    Thank you Mole and Berk for all the hard work, education and entertainment your site provides.

  • Keirsten

    Big volume today in the June 65.00 SPY puts today. You mentioned buying Apr/May- but I don't have those available via Shidelity. Am I missing something?

  • molecool

    Part of that volume will be Berk and I very soon πŸ™‚

  • Keirsten

    Yep, with me tagging along behind you. That looks like the sweet spot. πŸ˜‰

  • Anonymous

    Interesting… thanks. I noticed the volume on the SPY June 65’s as well, which led me to wonder how I should jump into this. Have a great New Year.

  • AntG624

    I think thats a smart idea too, Mole, with far OTM options.

    I only have one concern however. What if the market makers do push this to S&P 1050 ish. That would likely drop the VIX below its 200 day moving average, and also ruin its breakout support around 37. We need a resumption of this bear market NOW, before inauguration. (I'm riding the pain train with these toxic inverse ETFs.. ughh. You live and learn)

  • Geo

    Yes, the hedgies will be back next month to finish what they started. Merry Xmas and A Happy New Year to all of you!

  • Anonymous

    Dang! The miners just took off a bit along with oil.

  • Eric_in_SFL
  • Frog

    I think the RSI is high b/c of the weak volume – several shorts are holding out hope – when a selloff doesn't occur by 2pm, i think it will rally more.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • mrekim

    What's special about 65? Why not apply the same capital to the 75 strike?

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Mole we may have little bit left check out theMcClellan.

  • molecool

    Well, I look at the NYMO all the time and 60 is officially overbought. Yes, theoretically can go higher but think about all those strong RLs on top and the stochastics.

  • Eric_in_SFL
  • http://guidepostings.blogspot.com perspective

    Trade #1

    All the stars seem to be lining up nicely.

    – The dollar looks ready to rally.
    – The VIX looks exhausted, but hasn't collapsed below trend.
    – The S&P is heavily overbought.
    – The gold/silver ratio has come in, but hasn't collapsed below trend.
    – The BKX has rallied to the top of the downtrend.

    For the record I am a buyer of SDS here.

    Long SDS @ 71.25

    tradepostings.blogspot.com

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Wonder if they will rally this market to new highs today. Would be nice.

  • Frog

    I chickened out and sold my longs. Too much technical data pointing otherwise. I'll wait for a better bet.

  • geckoman

    Happy new year fellow rats. Thanks for the kind gifts in 08 Mole and Berk and may our 2009 be even sweeter.

    let me know if there's anything I can do to help the cause out in 09.

  • gagelle

    Off topic, but purchasing gold coins isn't that simple. First, there is a rediculous premium to purchase bullion gold coins (at least with the dealers I've checked). And then collectible coins is a whole different game that requires a good deal of knowledge. From what I've read, large, supposedly reputable dealers have been known to scam people. I don't want a large block of anything, just a few coins just in case. If anyone has the name of a good dealer, any information would be appreciated,

  • Frog

    http://www.apmex.com is good – but you could just buy the GLD ETF – and wait for high premiums to go away.
    There is a shortage of small denominations of precious metals, not large.

  • DZZ

    Gold setting up for today's short.
    Happy New Year and thanks for your insights.

  • planetelex

    MER was quiet earlier but it's going a bit nuts at the moment…

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Yea I had a nice 20 point ride up today went long this morning at 862 and just sold at 882 and went short.
    ZGG9 Chart

  • Frog

    You are brave. I would not short gold here. Too much talk of Fed printing, lately. And it's climbing through a stronger dollar.

  • geckoman

    http://www.apmex.com. Forget the investable coins. Stick with Gold American Eagles, Canadian Maple Leafs. Then broaden out by mixing in some pre 1933 gold coins. My favorite is the British Sovereigns British fighter pilots still carry them when they fly in case they parachute into a jungle and need to trade something.

    Mix in both Gold and Silver. Bages of Silver can also be bought at http://www.apmex.com.

    Consier reading what Chris Martenson recommends. Don't forget to plan how you're going to safeguard the goods!

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/buying_gold

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I would advise anyone from buying any gold or other commodities in physical form…
    Unless you are in that closely knit cartel of the trade, you are an outsider…
    And as an outsider you will have such handicap in both buying and selling to the insiders…
    Look at it as an options trade where bid and ask spread is a mile apart if you are not a market maker…..
    Not a good prospect……
    And God forbid if anyone knows you are holding a few of those bars during the hard times…

  • geckoman

    But then again is owning GLD really considered buying gold? It's not like you can call and ask for physical delivery if SHTF.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    This is a conclusion I got after talking to a gold dealer on his view…

  • geckoman

    Bah! it ever gets that bad there coming for your food and clothes if it's not your gold. They better come armed more than me if they stand a chance πŸ™‚

  • Eric_in_SFL

    You might ask Tim Knight I know he has a few bars. The ting to remember is its traded using troy ounces 1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams.
    http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/cont_detail/0,3206

  • Keirsten

    I kinda favor seed packets and fertilizer myself at this point. Cheaper and easy to turn into edibles. πŸ™‚

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    New highs in the market.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    July of this year…
    I had a tank of gas sucked out of my SUV over night in the middle of nice Fullerton neighborhood…
    people always overshoot…..

  • geckoman

    Things are sure to get more desperate for some. Too bad it has to come to all this.

  • Frog

    You're welcome – my selling caused the push thru resistance. Grrrr! Bawk bawk bawk!

  • Eric_in_SFL

    Yah I saw the post below and did a little research and it's not making sense to me on ebay there selling a 100 gram (3.215 oz) bar for $2,875. Now I'm pretty sure a gold future contract is for 100 troy ounces or 3110 grams? Seems like a rip off or am I missing something

  • DZZ

    And the real answer is:
    http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/degraaf
    Thanks to urszula on SOH for posting.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I am looking for another new high after this little sell off

  • Frog

    If they are suppressing the price of gold, then why did they let it triple?

  • geckoman

    Fib Fans on TLT – yep looks god to use if you ask me. MACD crossover too.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/geckoman/folder

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Keep an eye on XLF it seems to be leading the market

  • Keirsten

    Good grief, look at USO

  • DZZ

    DXO heading to 30% today πŸ™‚

  • traderchrispy

    Maybe I'm missing something, but how come the gold eagles are $50 denominations if they are 1 oz. each and cost the spot price of gold?

    If you really had to use one for trade, and I don't mean to a dealer, could you really convince another person that it's worth $900 or so and not $50?

    Sorry if this is really dumb…

  • Fakenews

    I'm sure you meant “weaker” dollar, but if you have a new paradigm I'm willing to listen. I wouldn't play around with gold here especially with so many other toys in the box – DXDDX, DIG, TBT and DXHLX…

  • gagelle

    Thanks very much for the information, Eric and geckoman. (I was going to wait for the price of gold to fall first If it does.) The British Sovereigns sound interesting. I know that some of the old coins are rated and sealed, but from what I've read, even the ratings can be subjective. I will take your advice and start with the American Eagles. Blocks are out as they are too impracticable in an emergency.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Welcome to the new Bull Market lol. Mustard seeds πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    Wouldn't it be cool to get a photo of a guy sucking on a hose connected to your gas tank? I mean – how must that guy have felt doing that…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Idiots buying Gold on eBay – don’t even get me started. Just buy a futures contract right before expiration and then take possession. Those boys at the COMEX will have to cough it up at spot price – there’s a nice profit margin for you – the difference between the spot and real prices are a mile wide πŸ™‚

  • mrekim

    > We were looking at SPY June 65 puts and while we’re debating the issue, flipping through charts etc. those buggers suddenly change from 3.10 to 2.95.
    swv rm is 2.05 / 2.13?

  • Fakenews

    Sorry out sync post – that was meant for frog. πŸ™‚

  • gagelle

    The $50 is what they charge you over the spot price. So you would pay the spot price plus an addiitional charge. The denomination is marked on the coin, I believe.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Is XLF Finally breaking out?

    http://screencast.com/t/EHkgTg2lte

  • DMS425

    It almost always does.

  • DMS425

    I hope you are armed.

  • traderchrispy

    Thank you. I knew it had to be something simple. I'm just checking out gold and silver for the first time…

  • DMS425

    That is what makes this move disturbing, and why I own some way out of the money calls as portfolio protection. I dont hink I will get to use them but they are cheap enough to make me feel safe if the dollar crumbles.

  • gagelle

    I would have expected more of that when gas was $4.00 a gallon. I guess it's time for a locking gas cap. The guy who sold me my car last year had his new Honda stolen from a Home Depot parking lot while he was in the store for 5 minutes. (In a good area.)

    The 91 Honda Accord is the most stolen car in the US. I can't figure it out.

  • Eric_in_SFL

    I defiantly wasn't consider buying it just seeing what it was going for, thats what I though you could just exercise the contract.

  • molecool

    Yeah, I screwed that somehow up – was looking at another option I guess. Anyway, the July SPY 65 Puts are what we are looking at right now.

  • hiker

    G – ck out LINE if it moves back toward $14 going forward, or higher in January.

  • Keirsten

    Yeah, especially if he lit a stogie shortly thereafter. πŸ˜›

  • DMS425

    NO, but it is backed by physical gold.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I was the guy who stole the car lol. Then i backed it into that cop car in the video you played πŸ™‚

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I don't see July options .I see June.

  • victorberry

    Unless it's a head fake, it looks like money is starting to come out of US Treasuries. If so, will it flow into the stock market and give a better than expected rally?

  • ZigZag

    It's actually a good short here..

    http://tinyurl.com/7uwv2q

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Where is your uncle area?

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    GDX is at RSI 68 –33.7–NEM back at it's 200 day, time to short NEM again 40.85, this time I think NEM pullback goes below $38 its BB 13 middle band.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    AEM at 51.7 short now–needs to retest $47, so there's plenty of downside to work with.

  • molecool

    Yeah yeah – June – sorry I hit the sauce too early I guess…

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Having a bearish posture on the bigger timeframes, I'd like to agree with you, but that triangle isn't very 'clean' regarding it's symmetry with the recent low, IMO. The BKX triangle you mentioned earlier looks better. Hope it plays out to the downside though.

    If you've got time, I'd be interested to see what your RET is indicating for C on daily and hourly charts.

  • Anonymous

    Glad to see cnbc guest think the bottom is in and we are not gonna retest 2008 lows

  • hiker
  • ZigZag

    A close above $13. I think if it gets there…I will have to come and clean your big house. πŸ™‚

  • Reza

    de3600, if CNBC says bottom is in, that means its not in yet. They did the same thing about the Santa rally, which never happened. News is okay with them but besides prediction, I dont trust them at all.

  • MaxPainMan

    i like it! thanks!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    37 points more πŸ™‚

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Happy New Year Johnee

  • MaxPainMan

    SPX @ 909.81…. what to do… oh what to do….

  • bubba

    buying june 65 spy puts 10%, will build on any more rally, thanks, HNY

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    CNBC Rules LOL

  • SierraSeller

    WOW looks like lift off is in process – nice find!

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    And to you!

  • Trader Jose

    12.83 is 50 DMA with previous resistance at 12.95.

  • hiker

    someone at SOH asked me about it a couple mos. ago, and he was buying on the way down.

    I first owned DNN in 2002/2003 when James Dines started pumping the uranium sector, which I exited long ago.

    I am long DNN again.

  • toad37

    Vix below 39. Mole and Berk you must be absolutely salivating at the thought of cheaper puts. I know I am!!

    Happy New Year you evil sumbiches!!

  • Reza

    Where is Dr. Evil, no entries from him

  • Keirsten

    GS broke resistance, but doesn't look to close above it today.

  • MaxPainMan

    i'm with ya

  • Keirsten

    Me three.

  • pgrychah
  • MaxPainMan

    nice, look at AAPL

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am riding NYX & DDM calls now…
    So far, $TICK is steadily bouncing bt. positive area without getting too extreme…
    It could be seen as a set up for a dump, but I am leaning toward riding it higher, since it is in accord with my medium term view…
    All hell may break loose come new year, but for now…..”Yippi Kai Ye!”

  • pgrychah

    considering TICK and super overbought conditions is S$P H$S?
    http://social.stocktock.com/photo/2348194:Photo

  • green

    me 4 lol

  • workdog

    Tech was definitely lagging the broader market late in the day; AAPL most noticably.

  • MaxPainMan

    wow, see the volume on +SWVRM at the close?!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    S&P after hours getting beaten.

  • MaxPainMan

    happy new year everyone!
    thanks for everything Mole & Berk!

  • molecool

    You're welcome – if you think 2008 was fun – just wait for 2009 πŸ™‚

    Happy New Year to you as well – ring it in with style…

  • molecool

    Yup – NQ was below VWAP way before the others breached it.

  • molecool

    Was sitting here with a box of tissues – was weeping with joy whilst wiping the saliva.

  • toad37

    LOL.. +1 my furry stainless steel ratt friend!!

  • SierraSeller

    News scan shows 11/24 Midwest project suspended, Tony M mine work delayed.
    12/5 Private placement of 10,900,000 shares at $1.10.
    I think I'll enter with 1/4 position of April $2.50 calls and se how it goes.
    Happy New Year

  • 1_refiner_1

    I intend to. Thank you very much, mole. You have an awesome site. Happy New Year.

  • Vendetta

    Evil,

    Happy New Year's!!
    Thanks for everything especially keeping us informed on your long term put strategy.

  • de3600

    I had a great day lost 140,000 the housing market sucks so bad

  • hiker

    hi SS … Happy New Year!

  • Keirsten

    Happy New Year Everybody! Only 7 1/2 more hours for those of us on the East Coast. (hiccup)

    Cheers to you evil rats on the West Coast, from whence I came. GO TROJANS!

  • ZigZag

    Hey Johnee,

    Yeah, after today it doesn't look very good. I have a pretty good cushion on XLF, so I will bail if it breaks above $13. The 60 min chart looks extremely overbought though.

    I'll get those C scans for you. For some reason if I don't have the charts up before the close, I have to wait until 3:00 for eSignal to give me the closing price data.

  • ES_trader

    Just curious why you picked the 65 strike put in June?

    Can you please explain?

  • Saht

    Major overboughtness on SPY, IWM, Q's on 60min chart with RSI above 70 on them all. Most overboughtness for month of December. Have to go back to 11/4 to see a similar overboughtness. SPX was at 1000 then and look how that resolved.

    By the same metric, VIX is way oversold.

    I've started a small position in TZA so I wouldn't mind seeing nice big fat pull back but I'm prepared to wait for 923. Like to see a bearish MA cross on the 15min before adding.

  • JWBlack

    A note on whether the VIX is low enough.

    Probably not. A falling VIX is bullish for the market. The market starts to struggle when the VIX gets “too low.” But since what constitutes “low” for the VIX changes over time, I suggest that we look at the breakout area of around 30 as the number to look at. Over 30, then a declining VIX is bullish for the market. Under 30, then get ready to see the market struggle.

  • Saht

    TBT & DXO. Just sayin'.

  • molecool

    I expect the SPX to hit 600 before they expire. Even if we bottom before that – the increased vega on those options will add to their value significantly.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Hey guys, happy and fresh new year!

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve

    I am new here, but I wish you all a Happy New Year.

  • C.C. Rider

    Happy New You evil twins! Enjoying a Warsteiner brew right now. Cheers!

  • ES_trader

    Thank You

  • Insect Overlord

    I commend berk's and mole's collective testicular mass, but I'm not quite comfortable taking puts yet.

    http://screencast.com/t/wEqGuHjk

    Damn if I'm not irritated that I missed my opportunity on USO and OIH though.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Look intra-day mate… ALL that volume today was in the last (hourly) candle. Rejected from my stated 911 resistance, AND the $VIX under 40… You tell me.

    SkΓ₯l!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I would like to give you a BIG thank you for pointing this out. Volume closed today with more than 4x open interest… SOMEONE big was buying today (as well as several of us smaller lifeforms that noticed the whale swim past), and I really appreciate you throwing it out there. Great eye. These options will be MONEY!!

    BTW +1 (and -1 to everyone who understands the volume/open interest discrepancy and didn't give her +1. Tsk, Tsk people…)

    SkΓ₯l!

  • PatrickK

    happy new year Berk. thank you for your time and investment in this site!

  • PatrickK

    happy new year Molecool! Words cannot express my thanks for your investment in me, through this site… thank Mrs. Cool for her input (your time with us) too!

  • ES_trader

    Hello, I'm new to this site and curious how long you've been trading ?

  • Dave

    Happy New Year Mole & Berk!

    A sincere thank you for the extreme effort you've put into this thing– really head & shoulders above ALL others… I'm no wiz trader but after a (few) decades of effort I find alot of market wisdom to be pretty much standard issue. NOT the case here– frequently your blog is the highlight of my day– there's always a new idea to be found and a chuckle to be had. You present what others don't or can't and even better; you do it with grand style! Keep up the amazing work… Thanks again, Dave

  • geckoman

    Make that un-audited physical gold. It's really just a piece of paper that is supposed to have an interest in gold but you can never ask for it or even see it. They have never had there gold deposits sudited so who really knows who's shares are backed and who's are not.

  • Jigsaw

    Thanks Moon, same to you and Mrs. Moon

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Mr BIG VIX !!!!
    I'm really concerned about the VIX. I have one indicator says VIX will test RSI 25 = VIX's 200 day. Then , there's the actual RSI at 30.2 bull signal itself. ( VIX at RSI 32 today, I've been predicting that for weeks now)
    What a conundrum.
    Too bad, I won't know the answer until VIX RSI is at 29.5, or bounces higher off RSI 30.2

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    What's with all this 'mate' stuff that I read coming from yours and mole's pens?

    Oh! I get it…. you're boning up on your Aussie vernacular in anticipation of emigrating….

    πŸ˜‰

  • Royal With Cheese

    10 evil predictions for 2009 right here :
    http://etfstocks.typepad.com/markets/2009/01/my

  • sponge

    Thanks for all of your input this year. I have enjoyed all of the input Mole, Berk, and bloggers. I wish everyone a wonderful year.

  • Rob

    First of all of you rats, I wish everyone a happy new year from long time viewer and first time poster. This TLT trade and buying puts here got me thinking. In order to understand what could happen in the markets, one has to understand the ying and the yang that accompanies charts and trends. Apply some logic, theory, history, psychology and charts and you have clearer vision as to what can happen. With that said here is my 2009 prediction:
    I like the TLT puts as the charts show a pullback is forthcoming. But it also tells what may be on the horizon. Where will this money go? My guess is part to stocks, precious metals (bullish on gold) and the beginning of funding for the numerous bailouts. It is no coincidence that the market closed just a tad below the 905 RL. This will suck in the 2009 nay sayers will sell the market on Friday and Monday. This will correct the overbought conditions. After that money will begin to flow back into the market and you will see your SP 1050. Since there is a lot of overhead resistance, the outflow from T-bill market will give the market the push it needs. This will also coincide with the Obama rally (hope and change). So Q1 will see an upside push, a positive January (bullish for 09). However, Q 2 will see reality set in and we can possibly see that Q2 is worse than Q1 and since the market will be priced for perfection, huge disappointment will occur and the sell off will begin. We could see the S&P in the 650-770 range. In order to get the anticipated washout, bears need to become bulls and that will happen in Q1. This sell off will coincide with tax selling (raise cash to pay the tax man) during the first week of April and last until July which will include the sell in May and go away theory. However, the market will then begin pricing in the end of this recession and we will begin to rally hard (summer rally), sell off a little in October (bad memories rehashed) and rally into the end of the year. My prediction is S&P 1050 by year’s end. This will result in a 15% +/- 2009 return and reinforce the January month theory. This ironically ties into Mole and Berk’s OTM puts for the June and July months. This theory is logical, makes sense, involves history and captures the psychology of the markets.
    With this being said, I think it’s too early to buy puts and patience will be a virtue. Mole and Berk are on the right path with 09 potentially being a profitable year. The key is timing, patience and capital preservation.

  • Rob

    I also see the S&P 400-600 camp prediction. Can this play out? The answer is yes but it will take more than bad economic conditions. How about political unrest? Before I begin, I would like to state that I did not vote for Obama but since he is our new president he will get my 100% support as he should since we are all in the same boat. However, I have this uneasy and eerie feeling. Is this president at risk? Unfortunately, Yes. There are a lot of crazy people in this country. There were parallels drawn between what happened to Lincoln and Kennedy and MLK. Kennedy was a Democrat (no biggie), raised two young children while in office, the last first lady to be in vogue and considered to be a trend setter, the youngest president to take office and the last president to be assassinated. Not to mention the closer we get to inauguration parallels will be drawn to MLK. When this talk heats up, it will unfortunately irate the crazies. MLK day is the 19th and the inauguration is the 20th. He also will be swearing on the same bible that Lincoln used. This scenario can put us in this camp. I pray to god this does not happen!!

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    “I think the important lesson learned here is that RL percentages lose a bit of their luster during holiday weeks. “

    I disagree.
    The RL are offering only levels and % odds. The important thing is to avoid to breach the 100% odds level.
    Then, we may have a reverse at 50% odds or at 99% odds. It's irrelevant.

    We have explained hundreds of times in our report the correct approach (=gradually build a contrarian position as the odds turn in our favor, to take advantage of the reversal).

    We should not care if we reverse at 50% odds or 99% odds, as we said.
    We should only be prepared for any event and let the market decide what to do.

    Also, it's not true the odds have been less performing during these holidays, we have been reversing on low odds as well during this period, several times.

    So, summing up, we totally disagree with the above statement, the % odds are not better or worse according to the period of the year, the political climate or the mood of the traders.

    They are odds, they only express probability.
    It's up to the trader to exploit them with the correct strategy.

  • molecool

    I learned English as a teen from a bunch of limey Brits. Berk doesn't have an excuse except that loves Marmate.

  • hiker

    a 12/31/08 sector scan result for uranium producers and explorers –

    http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/fib_161

    click on a stock symbol within this scan result and it will take you to the Yahoo Finance data for that symbol

    I have been posting this uranium sector data at TW since about 2005 … it is not the complete symbol list for the sector

  • sponge

    I really enjoy your e-mails everyday, that is how I start my day off. I cannot say enough positive things about your numbers, I have made money off of them and I do swear by them. I have lately been tracking them against Mole's zero, pretty interesting. I do have a question because I do not trade futures yet, should I scalp and not use your scaling table? It seems that my results are better by grabbing a quick 10% return and waiting for the next set up then waiting for it to completely retrace? Your input would be appreciated. Thanks

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    if you make a quick 10% profit, that is very good

    don’t change your system, if it works
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    Mole,
    thanks for your clarification, yes it does make sense

  • molecool

    I appreciate your input and the only thought I can add is that it's 'unusual' to see an 86% and 94% RL being breached on such a weak signal. Before the holiday snooze I was tracking those breaches and continuously logged the signal to RL% ratio. This enabled me to predict breaches quite accurately which resulted into the creation of Zero-RL. There are always deviations of course as I a) have not accumulated a sufficient amount of data yet and b) no method is perfect.

    However, in the past week I noticed that those 'deviations' occurred more frequently and therefore my comment in my opinion is a fair one to make. I think you actually misunderstood what I was saying or it got lost in translation. The question here is not whether or not the RLs work – if I didn't believe they did I wouldn't have advertised them (for free) several times on this blog as I am very selective in that department. What I was referring to was the correlation between the Zero signal (which is a reflection of market sentiment) and the RL percentages. By saying that they 'lost their luster' I meant that a weaker signal was able to overcome RL above the 80% range. That usually requires a Zero signal above 4 – under normal conditions. What I saw was a 2.3 – which is barely good enough for a 65% RL under normal circumstances.

    So, the issue here is not your RL percentages – as what I am doing is to put them into a different context. Hope this makes more sense.

  • molecool

    CLEAN THEM CUPS!!!

  • molecool

    True that!

  • superbear

    It is highly probable that we'll be in a nice Summer rally then and 100+ on SPY.

  • SierraSeller

    Good info Thx Tried to bur the DNN April calls – not filled at my price so
    I bot some common – looks like it wants to go up, up and away!

  • SierraSeller

    Good info Thx Tried to bur the DNN April calls – not filled at my price so
    I bot some common – looks like it wants to go up, up and away!