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Intra-Day Update: Irrational Exuberance
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Intra-Day Update: Irrational Exuberance

by The MoleNovember 25, 2008

UPDATE 10:09am EST: Here are the retracement levels for today. TNX is down but the mouth breathers don’t seem to care. Obviously the consumer numbers were cooked, but it’s all one big kabooki theater at this point. Frankly, I’m looking for an exit – should we get one I’ll cash out and walk away until next Monday.

UPDATE 10:31am EST: Curiously, AAPL is behaving today – actually making profits on that one – bless its soul. CF and GS are not so kind unfortunately. Anyway, don’t even try to make sense out of this tape – there’s a battle going on. If are holding puts and are not willing to cut here (like yours truly) get yourself a SPY/DIA hedge and let the idiots figure out a direction. Right now we’re at a pivot and buyers/sellers are fighting for the VWAP.

UPDATE 11:33am EST: Lots of movement but we’re not going anywhere. I thought expiration week was over.

UPDATE 3:00pm EST: I am quiet today because I’m mostly watching. Got into cash about 2 hours ago and took a loss on my puts as I saw the MMs play evil bid/ask games with all of them despite the market dropping steadily. I’m starting to follow the futures as trading the options market feels like a task of Sisyphus lately and making buck in this environment is harder than ever. As I’m writing this the ES just rallied 20 points which kind of vindicates my earlier decision to bow out.

Tape of today – this is what you call chopped hamburger meat.

I will probably take a step back for this week as I desperately need some time off, and there probably won’t be any market updates until Sunday night. Will follow up with quick thoughts and comment cleaners.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://embarqmail.com stoner516

    Paulson speaking is the best thing for bears since sliced bread.

  • de3600

    hank the tank

  • molecool

    Bring him ON!! Maybe Bush can double down on this?

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    With such little downside protection in place, as evidenced by the put/call ratio, and so many shorts convinced that this is the beginning of a big up Elliott wave and have covered, you would think this would be almost perfect for a BIG sell-off. No shorts to cover to protect the downside, trades looking to take profits from a 17% advanced (741 to 867), and a slew of what likely will be HORRIBLE economic reports before the bell tomorrow.

    This could all be the wishful thinking as I went long SSO at 100 yesterday, and loss 2% on the NAV adjust alone overnight!

  • DavidYZ

    Erikd

    “I will make a post at some point tomorrow once I can see overnight action and how we open and trade for the first 90 minutes.”

    I am waiting for post. You are a great market sync.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    TNX gapped down, is now close to Friday's low. Any ideas what is that supposed to mean?

  • g_man

    you mean SDS ( I Hope) πŸ˜‰

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Indeed. Now that would have been poor execution!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • toad37

    The term “mouth breathers” cracks me up every time. πŸ™‚

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    It is quantitative easing. They can't move the short-end down any more, so they are buying intermediate maturities now. By them, I mean the Fed., let the Treasury print it, and then the Fed buys it from them, puts it on its balance sheet, and prints dollars to cover the purchase.

    See: 1990s Japan.

  • itsallgood

    I need to keep track of when the A@@hole is going to speak – its almost always good for a scalp….

  • http://embarqmail.com stoner516

    Yeah Bush + Paulson = Turkey meat for the bears on Thanksgiving.

  • gagelle

    Paulson's amazing. I think he could talk down the strongest bull market. There's a tone of arrogance and instability in the way he presents himself.

  • molecool

    You should take a look at this article.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Great, thank you both!

  • de3600

    xom and apple are not doing well at all

  • molecool

    I think Bernanke is even worse – he's an arrogant snake.

  • benji12

    this mkt is freakin resilient. won't budge down. scaring me.

  • Bricks

    Obama's press conference at noon should shake things up here shortly.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    It's early. Lots of people going traveling tomorrow. This is like a Friday.

  • gagelle

    And this same strategy didn't work in the Japanese deflation? Then it defies common sense.

  • gagelle

    He could create another bubble.

  • gagelle

    Agree.

  • de3600

    vix moving up i smell the fear on both sides

  • C.C. Rider

    This is what our esteemed leaders are offering us. You buy, we fly.
    ==============
    pig in a poke
    Something that is offered in a manner that conceals its true nature or value.

  • gagelle

    The issue to me is that the Fed is not honoring congressional intent for the use of the TARP money.

  • bergs

    The credit market was right and those who said it couldn't happen were wrong.

    from Denninger at market ticker. http://market-ticker.org/archives/667-Tired-of-

    Now the credit market is saying that we are going to have more defaults than happened during The Great Depression. That is, it is forecasting a Greater Depression that worse than the 1930s. The TNX (10 year yield) is threatening to break three percent, down another 6% (!) this morning to 3.16%. The bottom going back as far as my charts extend is 3.07%. Almost there.

    The 13 Week T-Bill (IRX) stands at 0.1%, which is for all intents and purposes zero. The Effective Fed Funds trading rate has been between 0.2 and 0.3% since the last putative rate cut to 1% – that is, effectively zero.

  • gagelle

    Off topic (but not really) Imagine if Bush got his way and put the social security fund into stocks.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Is spending $500B over 2-3 years, better than $168 in six months?

    I guess the market will tell us.

    Also, Moody's downgraded some prime CDO tranches today.

  • gagelle

    This plan may push financial stocks up–perhaps in a big way.

  • bergs

    Mole

    Any chance in this view? http://screencast.com/t/10GgCAvmP6

  • Erikd

    critical area for today should tell us direction in next 30 minutes

  • Growler

    Im willing to bet my life's savings by Bush trying to privatize SS, he was attempting to throw enough money into the system to avoid this crash.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    IRX is right now at 1.10, up 1000% from yesterday.

  • C.C. Rider

    My guess is the market stampedes to the exits. If not, welcome to Wonderland.

  • Duuuuuude

    It was a minuscule amount of the total SS fund if I remember correctly, like 5% of it. Over a 10, 20, 50 year time horizon, I would take my chances with the stock market over what the government will allow you to have. I don't believe he was trying to prevent this crash as Growler thinks. I believe he was attempting to salvage a failing system. You may have seen this. http://blip.tv/file/1417453/

  • Erikd

    next stop 802 area

  • DavidYZ

    I guess you are watching to see if SPY 84.1 (yesterday's last 30 minutes low) hold or broken.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/av/

    If you get bored you can click on Jim Rogers interview last night on Night Calls

  • lazydogbkk

    825 next target for s*p, but…would look to start buying stocks around there.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    We just moved up from the pivot of 840 and then 848… I am just wanting to learn as to what points you towards market going down to 802 area.

  • DavidYZ

    Today?

  • Paleface

    What a pity that my English is not enough to understand:(

  • Erikd

    utilize 5 indicators $TNX USO XLF $VIX FXY

  • g_man

    What's going on with TNX? Goin parabolic….

  • Erikd

    when XLF breaks 3 day 2min upward trendline to the downside should be final confirmation

  • Erikd

    donot expect XLF to go above the 11.80 area. downside should start building momentum for the day to the downside

  • Erikd

    IT is just giving us a point to connect a downtrend line that we can follow. watch for the XLF to roll over

  • Erikd

    would me giving hysterics with projections help you get in?

  • Erikd

    XLF has confirmed.

  • Erikd

    yes

  • willc

    market gaped up while it should have been down based on the indicators. maybe the news from FED altered market path temporarily. market should go down, but isn't 802 seem stretch for today? how did you come up wit that level?

  • Erikd

    downside picking up as XLF is starting to roll over hard get in! if you are not already

  • malusDiaz

    Confirmed what? Where's your chart! I wont follow anything without a chart with Entry & Exit levels.

    And what are you trading?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Shorted xlf at 11.55

  • C.C. Rider

    In Cramer's vernacular, Sell, sell, sell! Right here.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    F'ing Citi

  • gagelle

    Is this a day trade Erikd?

  • g_man

    Go easy on the guy, he's helping and he gives his reasons…make your own chart of XLF and see what he is talking about, I did.

  • gagelle

    So that means buy, buy buy, right here?

  • Erikd

    mole has given me the sites jing project and linux to have that ability. will hopefully read and start posting charts by next week.

  • Erikd

    how is it working so far ? πŸ™‚

  • Erikd

    yes, but rest of day will give clues about tomorrow, etc

  • sibekp

    Shorted at 11.60. Put in a stop above… I have no clue what Erik is doing but it has worked. I'll take the chance.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Mole, great article, I read it a couple of times, still trying to understand its implications. But most of all, I'm trying to find a way to trade this medium/long term. Do you have any?

  • malusDiaz

    I'm a complete n3wb, so i'm here to learn. Making a chart is equvelent to reading greek still. I can pick out letters, and read a few words. (Bought Elliot Wave theory, reading & studying hard!)

    But when posts don't make sense on a consitent basis, and i see the quality of analysis here, it makes me think of hysterics to see opinion / advice posted without much.

    Mostly i want to learn to trade, and i figured i'd leach from the best.

    Sorry if it's harsh, but i callzem as i seezem.

  • gagelle

    In my opinion, down move should be expected after rally we had. Doesn't change anything unless we break major support.

  • malusDiaz

    Cool! Teach me!

  • Erikd

    draw one trendline on XLF using 2day 2 min chart and let it be the center lne in the road for you πŸ™‚

  • gagelle

    Thanks Erikd. I'm only trading a smaller account in which I can't day trade. I have to leave my larger account in cash for a while.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Hi folks…if this rally is in fact short lived, here are a few symbols — with each of these, I like them because they are bouncing off of some kind of resistance, not just turning over.
    APC – http://screencast.com/t/cyHvAqYU (requires a little more confirmation)
    AXP – http://screencast.com/t/yTlRd0aFk
    BA – http://screencast.com/t/nfoCslTFv
    RIMM – http://screencast.com/t/5PaNiL0l

  • gagelle

    That's good news Erikd.

  • malusDiaz

    Is there a free charting service i can use?

  • molecool

    Dude, it takes 5 minutes to set this up – literally. It's a utility – not brain surgery. Obviously Berk and I are not the only ones who are clamoring for some charts here.

    http://jingproject.com

    Set it up.

  • C.C. Rider

    Thanx for that! Can we call it the gagelle indicator?

  • gagelle

    Many may know this, but you can't give points to responses, unless I'm doing something wrong.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I got wrecked on my SPY puts that I bought on Friday…stopped out today. My SSO, AGU, and GLD puts are all mildly in the red, but I'm still holding them. I'm looking to acquire UYG calls soon as a hedge. All are small positions though, so even though SPY did a number on me, I'll live to trade again. Now its just “make it back” time.

  • gagelle

    Don't name it after me. I don't want the blame if it doesn't work.

  • LearningWizard

    For the $TNX and $VIX, my (limited) experience in observing them has shown them to be coincident indicators. How do you use them? Thanks.

  • http://spnakr007.blogspot.com/ Steve
  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Look at the 5 wave decline on xlf today. looks like we are in wave c down.

  • DZZ

    Are you seeing XLF ~11.60 as the last leg up?

  • willc

    easy…. he gave his reasons and tried to help.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I'm seeing Barrier Triangles forming on SPY and XLF 1 minute chart. These usually break in the direction of the horizontal edge, in this case, down. If I'm right, this will look like another trip down to 84.5 on the SPY, followed by a rise to 85.6, followed by a drop. The alternative is the world's ugliest head and shoulders.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I concur bro…with your skillz, you need to be postin' some charts.

  • Erikd

    4 of 5 indicators confirming πŸ™‚

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Can you say H&S galore?

    http://screencast.com/t/OeC4AmDdXF

    erik, it took me less than a minute to capture and “annotate” this chart, btw. πŸ˜‰

  • malusDiaz

    I know,

    My problem is I'm too dumb to know what he said!

    Give a man a fish, or teach him to fish, (I'm trying to learn.)

  • benji12

    man. i've got the worst luck. I chose 1 sector to short and i chost financials. got crush yesterday and even with the mkt down today, those shorts are still in the red. only thing keep me afloat are my oih puts

  • Erikd

    yes tha t would be max level area today.

  • Erikd

    XLF falling like a knife

  • C.C. Rider

    Guessing here, but a close below 8000 indu means we're going lower, ala 6000

  • benji12

    hope you are rite. i need this in the worst way.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Never mind – broke the neckline. Still bearish.

  • b_rad

    do you not have a brokerage account yet? Sign up for TOS (thinkorswim.com). you can papertrade without anything and get free access to the full version of ProphetCharts that most of us use

  • benji12

    a close below 8000 means the dow falls almost 500 pts by EOD. highly unlikely, IMHO.

  • Erikd

    mole you are going to get a nice exit today as per your post above πŸ™‚

  • Erikd

    who missed this move or should i say who is ridng the slide

  • DZZ

    Thanks – TNX crashing hard!

  • lazydogbkk

    ung looking very very attractive here for catching the bottom floor. Not technical, but fundamental based on that post i threw up on the weekend.

  • Paleface

    Missed. Was offline at the 12:00 ET entry.

  • Paleface

    The ES and USD/JPY charts are identical today.

  • DZZ

    ~11.52 next leg up?

  • MaxPainMan

    come on now…. it's OBVIOUS “they” are going to prop this market up for a while to make everyone feel good and spend money this xmas

  • Growler

    I'm watching intently but also have a few short positions.

  • benji12

    that was the move? wow, so feable. so back up from here?

  • etechpartner

    well… I've been building up my puts on the way up since Fri…. was even ready to double down had we reached 906 … at the moment I am looking for a good exit. Maybe EOD if your model holds or maybe tomorrow morn. Oil certainly looks like it wants to drop some more tomorrow.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I have 4 short positions (puts) and I cannot bring myself to go long. I just don't see a signal.

  • buylo

    was in FAZ earlier this morning, got burned cause I got out too early, before you mentioned XLF – my bad. Thanks for your tips, you think we see more downside today?

  • gagelle

    Your broker may have one. TOS has charting. Or you can download Prophet charts for a free trial. http://www.prophet.net You can also chart for free in Scottrade without an account.

  • benji12

    signal is that the mkt is desperate to go up on any news

  • gagelle

    They're going to have to spend big bucks. Most people have seen their retirement accounts decimated.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    New post, important one:

    http://moontrader.wordpress.com

    We might not have new lows for the year in the next two trading days, but I see at least a retracement (sharp one) happening. But I wouldn't discard the possibility of a new low in this time frame. If you have any inputs or ideas, please don't be shy: just reply here or leave me a comment.

  • gagelle

    http://tinyurl.com/5cs9lg
    [Open in new window]

    Anatomy of a Meltdown
    Ben Bernanke and the financial crisis.
    by John Cassidy

  • malusDiaz

    Thank you again, for the excellent knowledge here!

    Setup my account, got charts, learning to plod along.

    (Erikd, Steve, b_rad, got it set up now!)

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    Anyone else see a falling wedge on the SPY?

  • Chrys

    Will there be any tax loss selling this year or has it already taken place? I initally thought December should be a good down month but now I don't know. The 'Obama' rally I think is interferring with the tax loss selling.

  • etechpartner

    The news has skewed your chart. But has there been any fundamental change? I liked you analysis and I dont know if all the news of tons of money being pumped out will prevent another leg lower. For each announcement there seems to be a knee-jerk reaction up, but does that change the overall picture at this point? Hard to say isn't it.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    That was a dull knife

  • Erikd

    no we will hit 802 today

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I couldn't have sum it up either better or simpler than this….

  • Erikd

    its not done yet

  • malusDiaz

    Mmmm I wish there was a way to view all retailers Friday:

    http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2008/11/25/bl

  • lazydogbkk

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYucaBRzNrw

    “uhm mr. chairman….nobody watches cspan”….lmao

  • Erikd

    might have been a little early but the longer we wait the greater and harder the fall according to my model. I have been early more times in the last week but when it does move it makes up for it. just my view

  • Lori

    just kissed 11.60 about 30 minutes ago.
    And, yes, I joined in the slide fest.

  • etechpartner

    As my dear old grandma used to say “From your mouth to Gods ear”.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I'm waiting for a good signal to go long on CLF. I would look to hedge on SSO, but I already have a put on SSO, so I'm kinda debating that. Or QLD. Basically I'm debating what I should hedge my other four put positions with right now, but I do need to hedge.

  • chicago

    Yep. I think it might turn into a inverse H-S. But, many H-S in the past weeks turn down, instead of up.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Alittle music to listen to as the market falls lol

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edaJP3Lp0Gg

  • DMS425

    UYG HIG

  • g_man

    New low on the XLF, like your method Erikd, thanks for sharing

  • Tronchaser

    That's soooooo wrong.

  • JWBlack

    Yeah, he's a twerpy looking Bobby Flay with big hair.

  • Whatsabi

    Today, I went short SPY at 86.55, bought SKF at 166.62, and just bought SCMF at $2.50.

  • b_rad

    Now put some money in it and short this blasphemous, despondent country we (bears) thrive in!

  • Growler

    LOL….secretly i wish I could play like Mayer

  • Growler

    yes

  • malusDiaz

    Working on it!

  • mtvernon

    last hour rally would hurt a lot of folks

  • Erikd

    the spring is coiling tighter and tighter

  • Ukla the Mokk

    for what???

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Last time he posted that the market shit the bed.

  • DZZ

    XLF this leg up ~11.52

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I was pretty sure he meant it was about to drop, but as totally awesome as his calls have been of late, posts like that annoy me.
    Sorry Erikd…you da man…I just wish you were a little more clear sometimes.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    i am looking for the xlf to drop down to 10.50. I will cover my short there.

  • Erikd

    how many posts is needed

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    I have your back. It seems that everyone on these blogs want things their way or they just rail people, rather than appreciating their contributions.

    Of course, I'll get slammed for saying this, but so be it.

  • bergs

    Boy oh boy, this can not be good for the ecomomy. $tnx , all, daily. Looks to be wanting to print a new low

    http://screencast.com/t/jjOn2jekHM

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    What the hell happened? Biggest white candle I've ever seen

  • Ukla the Mokk

    /ES just formed an intraday higher high after bouncing off the daily pivot. Don't know what this may entail, but my guard is up…

    http://screencast.com/t/fe6wOuSF

  • b_rad

    it's called a damn bullish falling wedge. Target 875

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    It means we are going to make a new high today lol

  • Erikd

    dont chase it – patience

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Well, I wish the markets would move. I bought a call on HIG at what was a nice entry, but it has since dumped. A nice move in one direction or another would be, well…nice.

  • molecool

    Update above.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    It's not “slim”… 150+ comments is a lot or average – also considering it's holiday week. So then…

    Happy Thanksgiving, Mole & Berk!!

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    Are you covering XLF today? It looks like it is not dropping.

    Thank you.

  • gagelle

    It's amazing how many grandmothers use that expression. Mine did also. She also used to say, “God willing.”

  • gagelle

    I have the same frame of mind.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like the market is not going to dump

  • molecool

    Thanks – I'll be watching but won't be very verbal.

  • de3600

    nor get pumped

  • gagelle

    If anyone gets a chance, read the New Yorker article on Bernanke that I posted below. It's a scathing indictment that is very well written.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    -1 to Erikd call

  • gagelle

    I've also been hearing rumors that there is pressure for Bernanke to go.

  • de3600

    what was the call

  • JWBlack

    I dunno about that. He put himself out there.

  • molecool

    That would make my day – a fucking snake he is.

  • gagelle

    Mr. Vix, you have a right to do what you want, but it's very easy to find fault with people, very difficult to see the good things they have done.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I was kidding gag lol

  • molecool

    This is exactly why I'm asking him to post charts. But it seems he wants to keep his analysis secret, so all we're getting are magic targets. Which are great as long as they work, until the day they don't.

    I prefer to trade a system that I understand and which makes sense to me. Meaning, where I don't have to rely on someone else to call the shots.

    So, don't blame Erik – he's doing his thing and it works for HIM. Instead, work on your own trading system, because nobody can take that away from you and you don't have to blame Erik if things go wrong.

    I'm with Erik on this one – shame on you for taking a point from him, BigHouse. It's your fault if you don't do your own homework.

  • Vic

    These holidays weeks are bad for me because they mess with my breadth. Right now this second spike is on really thin advancing issues (so far, with 15mins to close). It reminds me of the mini-rally we had a couple of fridays ago, just before the oct. lows -I'm not suggesting new lows, but at least a 38% retracement.

  • Homer

    -1 to BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix) for “-1 to Erikd call”

  • Vic

    I must admit I love to watch him and paulson on tv. They get so frustrated in front of congress.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I am long the uyg until it gets to 10. I shorted the xlf today for a trade because i see 5 waves up from last Fridays lows. So I excpect a pull back into the $10 range. I don't need Erikd to tell me how to trade. I was just poking alittle fun at him.

  • ProZachJ

    I say we ditch the FED entirely

  • gagelle

    Sorry, I can be obtuse at times

  • gagelle

    Well, another crappy day. I didn't lose much but I feel like I should have stayed in bed all week.

  • Erikd

    target was not reached today. πŸ™ XLF key area today was 11.80 as was noted very early today. we did close right on that number – target of 802 is still valid will have to watch opening tomorrow following XLF. market makers using holidays to burn theta IMO – target will be reached sorry it was not today

  • Erikd

    I need a mulligan and will reload same shot tomorrow. πŸ™‚

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Nobody's perfect.

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    Did you close your short of XLF today and going into tomorrow flat?

  • Erikd

    802 today

  • gagelle

    Mole, just my opinion, but this point thing should be eliminated. We're supposed to be working together to make money, not competing to see who's the best. It's also a way for bulltards to come on and spam the site by taking points away.

  • Erikd

    no still 100% short holding overnight

  • molecool

    Okay, that's fine. I was pretty tough on Erik myself because he wouldn't post any charts, but I would never blame him for the trades I take.

    I hope you don't point me down when I get the tape wrong for the day. This happens, especially in this crazy market.

    For the record – this all feels like a roulette table lately – nasty.

  • molecool

    I'm actually defending your ass today – mark the calendar!! πŸ˜‰

  • molecool

    Don't worry about – instead set up jing please πŸ˜‰

  • Erikd

    did not reach target today πŸ™ wil reload tomorrow, should have noted molecool comments today about holidays

  • ZigZag

    He was kidding. Anyone who follows his posts would know that. πŸ™‚

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Imagine if we had a negative point tab? Everyone would be hitting each other everytime they opened there mouth.LOL. It would be chaos

  • molecool

    Market makers are turning this into the short squeeze from hell. Easy to do during holidays – happened last time. Why do we expect things to be different this time?

    I think we all should start remembering those lessons – holiday volume = market gets banged like a $20 lot lizzard.

  • g_man

    Holiday effects will be worse tomorrow

  • C'est La Vie

    First time poster…long time lurker.

    Couldn't help myself…lol

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vA_OzOmIYNc

  • molecool

    You got my vote on that.

  • ProZachJ

    I just saw a commentator on CNBC call for the Governement to create a new banking system. Sheesh! He even referenced the first bank of the united states as a model…I sure hope this isn't the case as history shows FBUS was a total scam.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Can you take points away from people?

  • jacksoo

    Good morning guys – decided to stay out of the market – made gains yesterday but pissed that I got out too early and left loads on the table. Staying up through the night to trade gets very hard after a few sessions – lack of sleep causes daft decision making. Anyway 99% in cash, one call with an infrastructure player and that's it. Some bad news for us this morning however – one of our new ducks has been killed by the python. So life goes on.

  • jacksoo

    Oh – one more point – finally switched over to Apple from PC based computing solutions. Considered the switch on two previous occasions but bailed – finally bought a new MacBook yesterday and will switch all existing PC/laptops to Apple – just loving this stuff already – reminder to self – buy Apple stock –

  • ZigZag

    Possible ending diagonal on SPY.

    http://tinyurl.com/5p3sl9

  • minion of the ppt

    Japan did not rely on foreign funding. If they continue this, as soon as the short squeeze in the buck is over, it'll tank. But do they care?

  • molecool

    Ditto.

  • molecool

    Not under my control, gagelle (I think) – this is all based on disqus.

  • molecool

    AT some point I had -500 points – guess I pissed someone off – LOL

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    Here's a short sell idea!! CECO ( education stock)
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_OB1VqhTEIHA/SSxb208tg
    I think the DEC ATM puts could be a big gainer

  • gagelle

    Oh right. It's built into their system.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    $20 bunk bunny–that's so funny, I on the ground laughing!!!!!

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    I very much appreciate you taking the time to post your trades and analysis here, Erikd

    I read that you will start posting charts soon. That sounds like a great idea.

    Many thanks again and I look forward to your next analysis.

  • balljet

    down day tomorrow..

  • molecool

    The ED is already complete and what you are showing would be a very ugly count. Also, the tape (despite it being a holiday week) does not feel like we are still in (3). Probabilities right now point towards this being 1 or 2 of (4).

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well the good thing about today was the number of post surged do to my -1 comment LOL. At least we know people are watching the boards.

  • gagelle

    You can take points away. We've had spammers come here and arbitrarily take points from people.

  • molecool

    Why? Think I'm spending too much?

  • molecool

    That was a gentle nudge if I saw one – LOL πŸ™‚

    1+

  • b_rad

    Some holiday fun (kind of how I feel though): http://www.screencast.com/t/oJl3gCVC

  • molecool

    Daft…. mmmmh – are you an Aussie or a Kiwi?

  • molecool

    LMAO!!! πŸ™‚

  • gagelle

    Some disgruntled bultard, or perhaps their point system is messed up. I've up-pointed people and then I noticed that their points went down. Something may be messed up with their program.

  • molecool

    Dein Wort in Gottes Ohr.

  • molecool

    LOL – are you a Tom Leykis fan?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well if anyone needs to borrow points from me they can. I don't need them.

  • gagelle

    This has developed into a fine board with some really talented people, thanks to Berk and Molecool's leadership.

  • minion of the ppt

    This casino quote from another blog – made my day:

    “So we had one stock up 50% today and another 35%. Looks like we went to the correct one armed bandit today.”

  • jacksoo

    Aussie: glad you're on – quick question for you – is SPX action yesterday/today a retest of descending tri base running from lows of 10/10?

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Credit where credit is due…

    …to me for my silvery tongue πŸ˜‰

    …but most of all to erikd for some pretty classy calls to date, with the possible exception of today… but hey, nobody's perfect.

    There I go again LOL

  • jacksoo

    Is that an American tax payer!?

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Who is the linux person? You or erikd?

  • molecool

    You mean – the 839 level? Possible, yes – there was also a long retracement level at 836, which didn't have high odds but was effective nevertheless. It's fair to say that if we don't punch through this soon that the area might server as strong future resistance.

  • molecool

    I'm a Linux person actually – Ubuntu.

  • molecool

    Stop bashing Eric!!!

    (j/k)

  • molecool

    You crack me up. Yeah – pissing off people is a sure way to generate traffic. Next time wait until I plug in an advertising widget.

  • jacksoo

    No – looking at line thru lows of 10/10 on thru lows of 27/10 and 28/10 – line thru hi of 10/14 and 11/4

  • jacksoo

    No – looking at line thru lows of 10/10 on thru lows of 27/10 and 28/10 – line thru hi of 10/14 and 11/4

  • molecool

    Couldn't find it – would you please post it again?

  • ZigZag

    Yeah, I think you're correct. I was trying to match it to volume and the middle of that pitchfork…I usually don't post these, but I had a bunch of them show up in my scans today….Oh well, one can still dream. πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    Post a chart mate – don't see it. Saw something else interesting though…

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    You're moving up in my estimation by the minute!

    Linux here too (ubuntu mostly). I manage a bank of them.

    Mac also (my laptop)

    What trading tools are you running under linux? I've been trying to find a good set of tools, but haven't had great success so far. Running TOS and prorealtime under OSX currently

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    You are sooo Disney Channel… lol.

    This reflects our age range here:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9Ch5LTJhS0

    Justin T. reminds me of Berkshire ;-D – who knows he looks like him. No offense Berk! ;-D

  • JWBlack

    Man, no need to be sorry about anything.

    You keep doing what you're doing, I'll keep doing what I'm doing (with a peek now and then to what you are doing when others aren't looking).

  • JWBlack

    Mmmm, from the nose down, you might be close. πŸ˜‰

  • JWBlack

    By the way, isn't the number of posts here some sort of record for a single day in a holiday-shortened week in the last week of November?

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Ich wusste nicht, Sie waren religiΓΆse! Ich hoffe, er hat Recht. ;-D

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    FWIW, my view is that there are very few bearish scenarios left on the table, at least with EW patterns that don't look ugly.

    Here's what I think is the bears last stand – an ending diagonal starting from the peak on 5 Nov, with wave 1 down completed on the 21st.

    Interestingly, there is a possibly strong (but last chance) trendline resistance clearly visible on the 60day or daily charts (see pink line on chart below). This line is also in the same general vicinity as the 50% (or max 61.8%) retrace of the previous plunge from the 5th, as shown also. Also, 2sweets has a go short level at 906ish – which is spot on the 61.8 fib.

    Nevertheless, it will take quite a bit to get me to attempt a short tomorrow or Thursday. I've sketched the kind of pattern that just might tempt me enough.

    If this kind of action doesn't develop very soon, I think the notion of an ED completed on 21 Nov has to be given top EW count status, and we're in a near term bull to 1000 area, maybe more (but I doubt the gap at 1080ish will be filled, at least yet)

    See here: http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/230105/charts/st/200

    Interested on others thoughts.

  • Erikd

    i think we would hit my target if you will start putting on the pressure again πŸ™‚

  • molecool

    Agree on all points, except that (4) will at least be a 2 month affair and probably touch the top of 4 of (3), so I'm thinking 1000 – 1040 on the SPX. What you are showing is a 10 day pattern and I'm afraid that won't cut it. Wave (2) took us 2 months, and according to the rule of alternation (4) should take us at least that much.

  • molecool

    Yeah, but 50% of it was us picking on Eric.

  • gagelle

    I saw John Bollinger on TV. He thinks we're going to rally and the telecoms are going to lead.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Sorry if I was unclear, but I'm actually agreeing with you (I think!)

    If (4) is already underway to the upside, then it will take months to complete – agreed.

    My chart is proposing the last possible bearish option – that 5 of (3) is still in progress and started on the 5th, is an ED (because it doesn't count as a five) and wave 2 up is completing now or not much beyond 906, with overlapping 3,4,and5 to the downside to come. I don't like it, but as I said I'm willing to consider it as a last option for the bears.

    To be clear, my chart doesn't cover the likelihood that we're already in (4) up.

    Are we on the same page as to this possible but unlikely scenario, or have I missed something?

  • gagelle

    Here it is molecool:

    http://tinyurl.com/5cs9lg
    [Open in new window]

  • gagelle

    Anatomy of a Meltdown
    Ben Bernanke and the financial crisis.
    by John Cassidy

    http://tinyurl.com/5cs9lg
    [Open in new window]

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The problem is that people do not “+1” people when they should, and other people come in and spam.

    It is like taking a bunch of little losses and then taking a big loss. Wouldn't be so bad if we would “+1” people when the deserve it.

    IMO, Johnee is almost always spot on with his analysis, and posts charts to boot. I know I gave him a “+1” for his effort and analysis. Did you?

    SkΓ₯l!

  • de3600

    I am a little confused i always like to use pattern formation i have conflicting signals all over the place FLSR pushing up as to what look likes right shoulder/Srs looks as plain as day as the head formed/rimm trying to form a double top cant push thru 50/aapl looking to form a double top but be knocked down 2 times at 95/goog hit the top part of channel at backed off.I still think we have to rally higher buy i think this drop is coming faster than we think.Could we see 10,000 on the dow im sure but i think it can happen alot faster than some think.I think dec will be the MAJOR drop and we start a tard rally in janurary

  • molecool

    I think we're in sync, although that would be one monster-ugly ED. Problem is that it (again) would not present us with a good entry. After all, how do we know a roll over into 3 is not just part of a zigzag of 1 of (4) – or the beginning of 2 of (4). Problem with ending and beginning patterns in situations like this is that they allow a lot of interpretations.That's a major reason why Berk and I look at breadth, volume, and general momentum in the market. So far I have not seen a bear in sight – seems most of them have returned to their caves for their winter hibernation period.

  • balljet

    Das glaub ich nicht πŸ™‚ Kunt uw ook Hollands spreken?

  • Scoops

    I'm with you on the options market. I've been paper trading the ES all week and having very good results. The only indicators I'm using are 14,3 stochastics and pivots, though RL is very interesting. Next week I'm taking the plunge and will likely proceed to have my ass handed to me.

    I'm rather pissed I woke up an hour too late the other day to miss the euro break out of its triangle…was watching that one for a quite a while. Anyone else catch some of that move?

  • molecool

    Your comment couldn't be better timed – see the new post.

    1+

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Agreed.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    FWIW, my view is that there are very few bearish scenarios left on the table, at least with EW patterns that don't look ugly.

    Here's what I think is the bears last stand – an ending diagonal starting from the peak on 5 Nov, with wave 1 down completed on the 21st.

    Interestingly, there is a possibly strong (but last chance) trendline resistance clearly visible on the 60day or daily charts (see pink line on chart below). This line is also in the same general vicinity as the 50% (or max 61.8%) retrace of the previous plunge from the 5th, as shown also. Also, 2sweets has a go short level at 906ish – which is spot on the 61.8 fib.

    Nevertheless, it will take quite a bit to get me to attempt a short tomorrow or Thursday. I've sketched the kind of pattern that just might tempt me enough.

    If this kind of action doesn't develop very soon, I think the notion of an ED completed on 21 Nov has to be given top EW count status, and we're in a near term bull to 1000 area, maybe more (but I doubt the gap at 1080ish will be filled, at least yet)

    See here: http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/230105/charts/st/200

    Interested on others thoughts.

  • Erikd

    i think we would hit my target if you will start putting on the pressure again πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agree on all points, except that (4) will at least be a 2 month affair and probably touch the top of 4 of (3), so I'm thinking 1000 – 1040 on the SPX. What you are showing is a 10 day pattern and I'm afraid that won't cut it. Wave (2) took us 2 months, and according to the rule of alternation (4) should take us at least that much.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, but 50% of it was us picking on Eric.

  • gagelle

    I saw John Bollinger on TV. He thinks we're going to rally and that telecoms are going to lead. They didn't give him much time so I didn't catch the indicators he used but it was something like the ratio of bulls to bears.

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Sorry if I was unclear, but I'm actually agreeing with you (I think!)

    If (4) is already underway to the upside, then it will take months to complete – agreed.

    My chart is proposing the last possible bearish option – that 5 of (3) is still in progress and started on the 5th, is an ED (because it doesn't count as a five) and wave 2 up is completing now or not much beyond 906, with overlapping 3,4,and5 to the downside to come. I don't like it, but as I said I'm willing to consider it as a last option for the bears.

    To be clear, my chart doesn't cover the likelihood that we're already in (4) up – it's only painting the possible trajectory of the bears last stand.

    Are we on the same page as to this possible but unlikely scenario, or have I missed something?

  • gagelle

    Here it is molecool:

    http://tinyurl.com/5cs9lg
    [Open in new window]

  • gagelle

    Anatomy of a Meltdown
    Ben Bernanke and the financial crisis.
    by John Cassidy

    http://tinyurl.com/5cs9lg
    [Open in new window]

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The problem is that people do not “+1” people when they should, and other people come in and spam.

    It is like taking a bunch of little losses and then taking a big loss. Wouldn't be so bad if we would “+1” people when the deserve it.

    IMO, Johnee is almost always spot on with his analysis, and posts charts to boot. I know I gave him a “+1” for his effort and analysis. Did you?

    SkΓ₯l!

  • de3600

    I am a little confused i always like to use pattern formation i have conflicting signals all over the place FLSR pushing up as to what look likes right shoulder/Srs looks as plain as day as the head formed/rimm trying to form a double top cant push thru 50/aapl looking to form a double top but be knocked down 2 times at 95/goog hit the top part of channel at backed off.I still think we have to rally higher buy i think this drop is coming faster than we think.Could we see 10,000 on the dow im sure but i think it can happen alot faster than some think.I think dec will be the MAJOR drop and we start a tard rally in janurary

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think we're in sync, although that would be one monster-ugly ED. Problem is that it (again) would not present us with a good entry. After all, how do we know a roll over into 3 is not just part of a zigzag of 1 of (4) – or the beginning of 2 of (4). Problem with ending and beginning patterns in situations like this is that they allow for a lot of interpretations.That's a major reason why Berk and I look at breadth, volume, and general momentum in the market. So far the tape indicators that most of the bears have returned to their caves for their winter hibernation period. Where are the aggressive sellers?

  • balljet

    Das glaub ich nicht πŸ™‚ Kunt uw ook Hollands spreken?

  • Scoops

    I'm with you on the options market. I've been paper trading the ES all week and having very good results. The only indicators I'm using are 14,3 stochastics and pivots, though RL is very interesting. Next week I'm taking the plunge and will likely proceed to have my ass handed to me.

    I'm rather pissed I woke up an hour too late the other day to miss the euro break out of its triangle…was watching that one for a quite a while. Anyone else catch some of that move?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Your comment couldn't be better timed – see the new post.

    1+

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • http://groups.google.com/group/monitoringthemadness/ johneeboy3

    Agreed.