Intra-Day Update: No Silver Spoon
UPDATE 10:31am EST: Silver breached 10.73, so Berk and I cut our PAAS positions – this was our line in the sand. Instead however we grabbed some XLE:
I think you can see what the thinking process is here. Frankly, I don’t care about the rate cut – buy the rumor, sell the news. VERY defensible position here and if it breaches I’ll turn my coat from red to green.
UPDATE 10:48am EST: BIDU looks also very delicous – might turn into a nice island top pattern – who knows. It’s heavily overbought, so watch this sucker.
UPDATE 11:03am EST: Let’s not forget that the Fed announcement will be at 2:15pm EST. Expect some some volatility around that time.
UPDATE 1:53pm EST: Boring day so far – we’re pretty much stuck at the 886 short RL. I expect some kind of fireworks at 2:15pm – not much longer.
I have been coding my butt off since yesterday and am getting very close with the ZI-RL. It’s already showing me a signal on my test chart – yaaaay!!! However, I’m still thinking about the best way to visualize this. Problem is that RLs change every day – so if I just remove the ZI VTA lines if I expect a block then tomorrow most likely it will show that VTA on the chart again once I update the RLs. That’ll confuse a lot of people when back testing – so, I was thinking of painting the lines on the upper chart and maybe make them full lines if the algorithm expects them to hold and dashed lines if I expect them to be breached. This way we can time our entries better. This will not help with historical data obviously as we won’t know when exactly we took our entry (right at the beginning of the VTA or after the RL was breached). And we will continue to see trade alerts even if we didn’t take them due to an RL warning. But that’s something I would need to re-implement on a different (and more sophisticated) platform but at least we get even better entries this way.
UPDATE 2:22pm EST: Target Federal Funds Rate: 0 – 1/4 percent. As I’ve been saying – the Feds don’t make the rate – they are following the market. BTW, the effective FFR has been around 0.2% anyway – makes no difference. But this kabuki theater makes the mouth breathers (like jjjjjj) happy.
UPDATE 3:23pm EST: Are you guys watching the Zero chart? My predictions so far based on the ZI-RL I’m looking at right now have been spot on. I’m adding comments to the screen grab feed to give you an idea of where we are. The 911 short RL has a 91% probability – based on my research we need a minimum of a 6.0 signal on the Zero to bust through it.