Intra-Day Update: Whoopy Whipsaw
UPDATE 9:51am EDT: Things are moving quickly, so I’ll be updating here as things unfold. We opened lower and are now pushing higher. Yen is dropping right now after reaching 13 year highs last night in Asia. TNX is on fire and currently at 36.10 – above yesterday’s close. THIS IS PERFECT. We didn’t want the circuit breakers to kick in and we want to keep things orderly. I really don’t think ‘this is it’ – my personal belief is that wave 5 of (3) continues to unfold.
UPDATE 10:22am EDT: FYI – the Yen is completely oversold right now, which presented us with that big pop after the open. It’s slowly swinging around and once it hits 20-25 on the stochastics, things are going to get very ugly. Put down your crack pipes and strap on your helmets, people.
UPDATE 10:34am EDT: In case we somehow start to rally – I will load up on DIA calls if we breach 8400 on the YM futures which is an important pivot. If this market wants to rally, I won’t fight it.
UPDATE 11:08am EDT: NQ futures are now testing the 1200 level, and both the YM and ES are respecting that level as well. I already am sitting on a little hedge but will dump it if we drop from here. Institutional buying pressure has been very strong since the open, obviously the PPT is attempting to avoid a crash 12 days before the election. So, don’t fight this people – watch those pivots I’m posting and be ready to hedge yourself if you see those breached.
UPDATE 1:29pm EDT: Don’t ask me what the market is doing at this point. All my indicators are completely divergent. TNX is going up/down but is keeping above its 50% mark. Yen taking it up the rear, it’s almost gay. Market attempting to rally, but not going anywhere – guess the institutional traders are on their lunch break. TED spread has increased again (bearish), at the same time I think the moody/treasury 3 month yields might have narrowed (I don’t get realtime data unfortunately, only 1 day back). Wave count could indicate an ending diagonal, which would really suck. But there’s nothing that’s telling me we’re in for a strong rally either. Tough call – so far I have been sticking with my guns, but if we don’t get some kind of move in either direction before the close I might consider going into cash.
UPDATE 2:45pm EDT: Just wanted to let you guys know that I cashed out – yes, this could be a big mistake but I can’t trust any of my indicators at this point and I am a trader, not a gambler. So, I decided to call it a weekend in anticipation of a 3:30pm PPT rally. Very nice profits today – if we wind up crashing today I am still ending the day with fine profits. This market is too insane to hold a ton of puts over the weekend.
UPDATE Closing Bell: Well, what can I say – I seemed to have been very lucky with my timing today. Walked away with cash in my pocket and will live another day to play whatever the markets throw at us next week. I hope you guys banked some nice coin today and are all getting ready to kick back and enjoy a wonderful autumn weekend. I will be in touch in a day or two with my notorious weekend forecast. Until then – don’t do anything I wouldn’t do (which doesn’t leave much admittedly).