Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
It’s Wabbit Season
69

It’s Wabbit Season

by The MoleJanuary 18, 2018

I’ve been literally in stitches over the past few days marveling over the Shakespearean drama unraveling behind the curtains of the crypto universe. And I’m not even talking about the big sell off which now seems to be reversing. Apparently BitConnect is shutting down exchange operations and a bunch of people found themselves unable to convert their tokens to bitcoin or any other crypto currency. Seems to me a bunch of unhappy folks just learned the difference between (imagined) paper profits and real profits.

At least with regular paper profits incurred on a regulated exchange you can expect to convert into real Dollars whenever you manage to close out your trade. However some of those unregulated shitcoin exchanges seem to be nothing but giant crypto pyramid schemes. It’s gotten so bad that some of the most gullible and thus over extended folks are now on suicide watch and have been advised to seek out help. Quite frankly from an entertainment perspective this beats the entire past season of Game Of Thrones.

However irrational exuberance is not limited only to crypto traders these days as I’m seeing exponential candles all across equities. Shown above is a long term view of the Dow futures. And just to be clear, what you are looking at isn’t a short term chart – it’s a weekly and a monthly panel. Now let me ask you this: where do you think this chart is going to be heading next? Straight up like a rocket blasting past 30k? Caveat emptor has never rung more true, well maybe except for BTC near 20k πŸ˜‰

Words To The Unwise

Anyway, I’ve been making my concerns clear over the past year or so albeit it always came with a disclaimer that the insanity would most likely continue for quite a bit longer. To that end we’ve simply become a bit more nimble when it comes to equities, it’s great to be long an effervescent market but always keep in mind that large corrections can come out of nowhere and really hit you in the gut if you are over extended. So be careful out there, because as anyone trading crypto right now can assure you, it is most definitely wabbit season…

That said I’m thinking of a quick and nimble long campaign on the ES but only if it gives me a thorough retest of the 2800 mark followed by a Β recovery. ISL would be near a prior spike high around 2794. If you play along please only deploy petty cash (e.g. 0.25R) as I don’t think this market has too much more upside in store for us. Also my target for the one is at 2R and I’m out.

I posted this Retest Variation Buy setup yesterday on BTC/USD on my twitter feed as well as the comment section, so I hope you caught it. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – trading cryptos right now is like shooting fish in a barrel. Anyway, set your trailing stop to slightly below 10,700, which is the previous spike low on the hourly.

A few more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like equities are going hot pretty soon so I’ve got the trailing stops fairly tight… Direction unknown, but keep heads up about HY and tbt Equities eventually sensitive to rates, of course.

  • Darkthirty

    Looks to be a C wave….2772 mebbe

  • HD

    What everyone really wants to know is if the BTC rally is corrective or impulsive though…. πŸ˜‰

  • Yoda

    It’s OPEX week after all

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    After around 20k…and enough to buy a house some places it all looked passe to myself once the accelerated trendline was broken. By that Simpleton’s yardstick, while living under the downtrend line I’d call any rally corrective. That market is so heavily manipulated, however ….

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s a good point because in my lens time-emotions is becoming more important than price. opex has had this quality of creating time correction, not price. If opex cools emotions the model begins to weigh price again more than time. Its all brilliant fuckery, anyway, to any and all systems….comes down again to management.

  • BobbyLow

    I have a question about Blockchain Technology that follows BTC transactions. Someone here mentioned a small cap RIOT as a possible trader. It has about 6 Million Shares of Average Daily Volume so it’s probably shortable. It also has options but with shitty spreads. I’ve been following it for a few days and although it didn’t follow BTC’s move directly yesterday afternoon, it had about a 6% Gap up this morning. I’m wondering if this could be some kind of tracker of BTC. RIOT is around a $20 Stock so it might be something for people who have less capital to trade.

  • Yoda

    trend day alert is your time to shine

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    I put DeMark in the E.W. category. It works in retrospective…sometimes. Not great predictability. When it works, it works…until it doesn’t. It all depends on what your count is and where you put the numbers on the charts…whether its 1 thru 5, or 1 thru 9 or 13.

  • BobbyLow

    I still have a DeMark Indicator book on my shelf. It helps hold my other books up just fine.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks HD. It looks like there is a rough correlation there or is it my imagination?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Damn – where did everyone go today?

  • Julie

    Hi Chief I came down with the flu bug.Taking it easy
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Seeing a distinct corrective (ABC) impulse on BTC. These unregulated sweat shops as I call them come and go with the tide as they take retail money off the table again.

  • Julie

    Hi GG BAC A lower high off the bounce of the Ichi Cloud baseline (21)Yesterday I stated it could go to 31.61 and that appears to be correct Looking for GDX to bounce to a lower high oversold on the 60 min chart. INTC Yeah 44.48 – 45.04 I am proud of myself No Cougaritis
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    LLO!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s what you get for fishing in the damn snow.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie

    Ronebadger Glen Neeley also
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG Snowbird lol !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just emailed this to a new Zero sub and thought some of you guys may want to see it as well:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6c8f49e3bba169805e5e74583eee72596d6c181fa00b7accbaba3e195ef4b8e5.png

    When it comes down to it the game is all about divergences and momentum. The Zero Lite is on the right is what you’re more concerned about intra-day. On the left you got the hourly which serves as your general compass as to where the trend is heading. It’s not a crystal ball but it’s pretty damn close.

    Three things to look out for as it’s easy to get trapped:

    On the Zero Lite (right) you always want to have a decent signal of at least -0.5 or 0.5 – the rest is noise.
    Even with a divergence ALWAYS have price confirmation – so look for a floor pattern, e.g. a spike low before going long or a spike high before going short. You don’t want to guess the top or the bottom. Don’t go nuts with it.
    When in doubt stick with the trend. Big melt ups often happen with a small participation signal (e.g. smaller than 0.5), which is normal as it’s driven by institutions.

    Regarding VWAP – Google is your friend πŸ˜‰

    Hope this helps!!!

    Mole

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Like my wife. She’s been a mess for a week now πŸ™

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is one of the few instances when I support book burning.

  • Yoda

    Market breath is really poor today

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Halitosis or winners vs. losers?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Not much data to judge yet but to me it looks correlated and outperforms.

  • Julie

    GG HYG Falling fan lines indicative of a rounded top possibly forming JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc9e28fb4ab2f7c1a6f60c34d8c478ad74cfeb56c3f5f9ad632df4b21a85c3d6.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    …there is that expression; “never steal in slow-motion”. Yet, believe that is exactly what these markets are set up to do.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    IF, (and that’s if) then a lot of months can be wiped out in days.

    just sayin. EDIT: and those ema’s of support will turn to cursed ceilings.

  • Wave_surfer

    The Dow has been around for a while.
    I wonder what has happened other times the Monthly Dow went so vertical.

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah this book was also a difficult read. It was written by Jason Perl as a Foreword by Thomas DeMark. The way it was written makes author Nassim Taleb read like Ernest Hemmingway in comparison. πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. At first glance, I think it could be a relatively smooth trender too. I’m going to do something I rarely do and that is forward trade it on paper. I normally would jump in with real money but I’m off to a pretty good start for 2018, feel like I’m in sync, and don’t want to mess it up. So I’m going to see how this thing trades in real time going forward before putting money behind it.

  • Wave_surfer

    Interesting…
    so, after we add the missing 12 years on the chart, the point would be that we probably still have a few years left to the secular bull market.
    That chart is missing half the bear market and all of this bull market.
    It also looks like it doesn’t really go straight from vertical up to vertical down, but there is usually one fairly big hiccup, then another high before rounding down.

  • Yoda

    Quite a negative 5 min TICK print we just got

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Wave_surfer

    Funny!
    An article asking if the Dow can really make it to 20,000 by 2018.
    We have barely started 2018 and it is already 26,000. I wonder how much mockery there would be for the person who said we would be not at 20,000 by 2018, but over 25,000 at the very start of 2018!
    As far as the article, I am not hung up on Dow. S&P500 tells a similar story.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Trifecta!!
    I just realized my dad was raised in a bear market, myself, and now my son!
    son-of-a….

  • Wave_surfer

    I know this has indicators on it, but this monthly of Dow really shows how 2017 ramp snuck up on me.
    Things are pretty over bought on the monthly
    http://schrts.co/Q94f5g

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    switching to weekly,
    at least another 700 DOW point room above.
    πŸ˜‰

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&b=2&g=0&id=p15948755685

  • Julie

    XHB trading within Tuesday’s candle. A bearish close below the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) at 45.74 is want I am looing for to short. BAC adding to existing short probe on a corrective lower high. Had a target 31.61 and 31,71 was the high. GDX looking for a bounce oversold 60 min to a lower high possibly approx.23.95 or 24.12 to short
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    XHB
    inside, inside candle.
    at least it’s bracketed into a range.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p97526788884

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    The sell off in Treasuries is looking exceedingly real to me. It could still be an headfake, but if it keeps going on that path, those higher rates are going to bite a lot of folks, including GOV
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cb8f6e39d52d38d4e6c3ad8b9df32b460b28f6bd085cd237401bc7dd50b378cd.png

  • Yoda

    Wouldn’t touch it with a 10′ pole

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie

    GG Gonna work up some targets for GE I made some money getting out on the black candle January 5th At the top January 11 was looking for a 50% retracement but blew down past it on heavy selling volume
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GE Targets 16.70 — 16.40 — 15.97 Lower daily Bollinger band is 16.63 Just saying
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You should be resting!!!!

  • Julie

    I am Chief lap top in bed. and hubby waiting on me.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you’re the kind of guy who wouldn’t touch AZO too, I assume?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AZO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02740998694

    where’s RW!?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • TS

    He… was … a Super Calloused Fragile Mystic Plagued with Halitosis!
    (posted when Yoda was here…. or was that Ghandi?)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    VUSTX,
    on the line..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2f2a04c2673330a4aeae5f0c728aa4b327ac098aef05226e98c7ceb0cb71fcf9.png
    this chart was setup by Terry Laundry waaaay back in 2011.

  • Wave_surfer

    Things feel a bit crazy.
    Looking at how parabolic the indexes have gone so far this year and yet, this coming Tuesday, we may get a VIX buy signal.

  • Wave_surfer

    The more I look at TLT, the more it looks like it wants to roll over and accelerate down.

  • Wave_surfer

    This does feel like it has finished it topping process.
    I will be watching bonds over the next few days

  • BobbyLow

    I just completed a back test on my 30 Minute and it looks good. Changed my mind and hate to do paper trading so I’m going live beginning with small positions and wide stops on next setup which could be as soon as Monday.

  • Mary

    IS GE something Buffet may be interested in if it gets low enough?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III