Now Reading
January 2020 Statistics

January 2020 Statistics

by The MoleJanuary 6, 2020

Since most market participants were still on vacation last week I didn’t bother to post a full statistics update for the month of January. However as it’s one of the busiest months of the year let’s take an in-depth look at what we should expect from a seasonal perspective.

The Sharpe stats were a bit of a surprise for me the first time I ran my stats parser after I had built it. I had alway been told that January was one of the biggest earners of the year but the returns over the past 70 years are clear and rank it only at #6.

Ergo: It may be one of the busiest months but it’s far from being the most profitable.

Percent positive at least puts it at #5 after March, April, November, and December. Not that a 61% probability of ending the month positive should be ignored of course.

It seems that January shines were it shouldn’t – in particular when it comes to trading range, which puts it at 7%. That means more volatility, wider swings, and a higher probability that your stops are being touched.

Here are all January closes since 1950 on a percentile basis. It really looks like as if January loves to swing for the fences on both sides of the spectrum.

Curiously January is the only month that shows positive SKEW at 0.16. Is that a bad thing?

The histogram shows us a bit more detail. Apparently the median is slightly trailing the mean but that’s okay as the mode (i.e. the peak of the distribution curve) is in positive territory between 0 and 5%.

Here’s a comparison of January against all other months. It’s not a bad month per se but the amplified volatility can lead to stupid trading decisions, so watch your six.

Weekly stats for week #2 as well as our weekly list of stock victims are waiting below the fold for my intrepid subs:


It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c