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Keeping A Respectful Distance
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Keeping A Respectful Distance

by The MoleJanuary 8, 2019

Equities continue to fade retail sentiment which is evidenced by participation patterns that appears to be dominated by institutional buying. Yesterday’s session once again managed to take off and churn higher without touching VWAP even once after the first hour. Which by the way is exactly what happened on Friday as well. I have chosen to not over think the situation and simply trail the tape higher – at a respectful distance that is.

My trail has been raised to about 0.5R which isn’t much to write home about but better than a kick in the shin.

Speaking of which, my ZB campaign was taken to the woodshed mere hours after entry. So I am now standing by in anticipation of scenario B:

Slightly annoying to see continuation of the current pullback but the silver lining here is that we may get a drop back into 145 which I consider a gorgeous LKGB entry opportunity, assuming a spike low can be put in place.

Still in the game in gold but the campaign is hanging by a thread. IF that lower 100-hour Bollinger holds up then this one has good odds of continuing higher and embark on the third leg of this run. Should 1280 give way then I think we’re in for a much deeper correction, possibly extending to 1260.

No new entries today as everything seems to be running in circles. And if you allow me a momentary bout of subjectivity: Something just doesn’t ‘feel’ right just yet – as if participants are running from one sector the next based on the daily whims of the news cycle.

Which is completely understandable given where we are on the implied volatility front:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • TimeToPanic

    Long NQ at 6545. Head and shoulders pattern neckline has been reached. Next, the 20% drop. Puts on QQQ to be added later this afternoon.

  • Jason13

    Mole, I liked the ZB setup too so I went long this morning but I think my tight stop may get taken out…..if so, I’ll join ya in the 145s. Can’t let you ride by yourself.

  • randomuser6789

    Mole, thanks for another great post. Though I do not trade futures, I feel like reading your posts is like an apprenticeship. I have learned SO MUCH by following your thought processes about equities/futures/currencies/etc.
    Thank you for bringing sharing your evil deeds with us. Much appreciated.

  • Ian Naugler

    LKGB at 2600? ☠️

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    This is no ordinary shark. Muwahaha

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsLk0NPRFAc

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HYG weekly
    strong surge. similar to 3 years ago.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p41255448012

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX 57.63 from yesterdays 58.2 entry but looking to re-enter

  • HD

    GM Mole, all. HNY. Looks like good opportunity for B up to complete. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b512de725538cff1b804bee8285c2bb3cfe172d2d06fc02d68921782dfa5e6bc.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    back in TVIX 58.17, tight stop though

  • HD

    AZ winter- enjoy, most of this shot within 30 minutes of my house.
    https://youtu.be/3OFOcrDF0zA

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Proof, that Hell *can*, freeze over.
    😉

  • HD

    I’ve got pivots, fibs, symmetry and look left.

  • HD

    I’ve been a pretty lazy ‘blogger’ this year so far…

    We retest the lows though. Count on it.

  • Sp00nman

    I like the gap up from the bearish standpoint as an exhaustion gap to the upside. We’ll see if we get sellers to come in. HYG is still holding strong for now. HYG should be coming into some resistance.

  • HD

    that didn’t take long +15

  • 1coin3lives

    Speaking of, here’s a Heron I stumbled across in Sedona this past weekend, just before the snow started to fall. I didn’t know there were Herons (heron?) up there.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/617376d240a8b6d652a7e6895ab36980871c5fc277cdd6389c4cddd84fb06d04.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    out TVIX 58 to 59.0… see if they can come back

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_birds_of_Arizona

    Seen often enough to list as casual. not accidental.
    😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    short crude via DWT 12.65

  • ridingwaves

    Amazing hunters of gophers…watched one grab 2 in 30 minutes at GGpark….then a hawk came in and took the second….

    Urban Wildlife starring ridingwaves perkins…

  • 1coin3lives

    Nice – seems we have more diversity of species than I realized.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gap closed. I have a feeling we are below VWAP. ☠️

  • evilasevildoes
  • ridingwaves

    It seems to have met the objective already…

  • TimeToPanic

    Hmm, that rejection at ES 2581 was a beautiful sight to behold, if you (like me) keep a track of the waves. Though shalt not overlap! So just bought my puts on QQQ, 8th Feb expiry, 144 strike. Wish me luck, it’s an oversized put position.

  • TimeToPanic

    That stick man is going to get badly bruised HD.

  • maxcherry
  • Ted

    How did your post from yesterday finish. Something about ZB?

  • ridingwaves

    VHC, 3 judge panel hearing oral arguments today on patent infringement of Apple that judge has ruled in favor of VHC for 550 million and royalties…..due diligence and tight stop required, short ratio at 30%…..they could buy the company for less I believe…..in at 3.07…..stop at 2.93

    risk – reward compelling…with frog ass water tight stop….

  • maxcherry

    yes it triggered yesterday

  • Ted

    Thanks

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone? Enjoying the whipsaw? 😉

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • TimeToPanic

    Had a nice sports massage boss, after the gym yesterday. Back in the swing after a 4 week break. Markets, my views are clear, the H&S neckline has been rejected today, so down to 5100 NQ in a hurry I think.

  • TimeToPanic

    You guys could almost be twins.

  • Wave_surfer

    Now that we closed the gap of this morning, we can resume moving up.

  • evilasevildoes
  • Sp00nman
  • evilasevildoes

    except more stocks purchased at lows in bullish percents however does not move in straight line

  • evilasevildoes

    uco 15.66?

  • evilasevildoes

    10.44 res USO

  • evilasevildoes

    uso first target 10.60

  • evilasevildoes

    got out of uso pnf h and s on 1 min lol

  • Jason13

    THinking of jumping back in long….I think the drop is later this week

  • evilasevildoes

    10.63 my first target on USO so that is a bit bullish

  • Jason13

    I mean SPX

  • evilasevildoes

    erx reversing pos

  • evilasevildoes

    erx to 18.64 then who knows

  • TimeToPanic

    I wonder how many longs trapped up here?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Very much a possibility. But these days I find it difficult pointing at a high probability direction. One day at a time.

  • Sp00nman

    Yep for sure.. I’m sure there are bears trapped below as well. :p I’m personally looking for a pullback, but we could definitely move higher.

  • ridingwaves

    necklines have no clue about trade talks….if a deal is made, 5100 will be a long time away….

  • Ted

    Look at the small caps go. Once the Australian dollar got it”s footing it’s off to the races.

  • evilasevildoes

    erx saying 19.40

  • TimeToPanic

    As you know I think, I don’t trade news, just the charts.

  • evilasevildoes

    amzn 1700?

  • Jason13

    And the sellers are gone…for now

  • Jason13

    VWAP breached…can it hold?

  • evilasevildoes

    not sure but h and s invalidated on spx

  • evilasevildoes

    uso has to clear 10.55

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    2587 number to beat

  • evilasevildoes

    2298 short lol >?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @evilasevildoes – you’re a busy bee today. Where’s everyone else?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We need a break of 79 to reverse the current dynamics.

  • Wave_surfer

    watching the small whipsaw of the last 3 hours.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think that’s what’ll it be for today ahead of Trump’s speech.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just got up…. I was up at market open ,did a thing or 2 and went back to sleep. Trying a crude short here today, scalped TVIX a bit slight gain over last 2 days. Work has been busy before and after New Years so I haven’t been on here much. I am just now recovering.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Lazy bugger!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Just email me the swings for the next six months. That would make my job a LOT easier!

  • BKXtoZERO

    customers want their stuff… year end is hard

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Amen.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I know – how annoying! Put them in their place 😉

  • evilasevildoes

    you still in USA?

  • evilasevildoes

    fyi jan 18 30 45 60 90 day week and month convergence from DJT inaugeration

  • evilasevildoes

    hi spec china stock it has 0 as target on daily …delicate distribution,….. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1646620f6bd5da4cd6b8fe6197a954ba8656cee403973ee4af90496f02f094ff.png

  • evilasevildoes

    ha JNJ calls sold (1/3)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Above 2579 I have 2590.62 — 2597.68 and very important 2609.11
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s how customer service works here in Spain. You are lucky if they even acknowledge you. I’ve been in many places in the world and I think Soviet Russia had better customer service than Spain.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Standing by. Scalped 4 ES points earlier today.

  • evilasevildoes

    chop suey here

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV Getting ready to short BA .. Just needs a bearish reversal candle at present level .. Could go slightly higher approx 342
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Yes ! Add to long probe bullish close above 25.06 .. Nice base forming
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys one item worth mentioning regarding symmetry.C = A @ 2617 I posted a level previously at 2616 … If you want it precise 2616.17
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    That was the high today Julie. The speed of that rejection was the tell, plus, it didn’t quite overlap wave 1 down (according to my EW blogger, who is the only one I’ve read who seems to know what he’s doing).

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Same idea. Bring a stamp.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice – lunch has been paid for 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Breach over 18.56 is key.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not a bullish chart right now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Is that a bearish divergence I’m seeing on the hourly Zero?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CaptainB I have a negative Class C divergence MACD on the 60 min SPX
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX If anyone has noticed the chart pattern on rally It’s a bearish rising wedge
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys ..SPX You can see the bearish rising wedge (more easily seen in thumbnail) NOW The price can turn up and negate the wedge If so it will channel NOW the declining 55 ema approx 2633 I posted a level previously 2639 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/908aef489e209054977d2fecc4948d1a0448d3e33d971935b0956b91ab27e76e.png 2643 which would intersect upper channel Could go there JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    wedges can become channels. you can’t be blonde.
    give me a hug.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A Big Bear Hug !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    FYI…Speech tonight, FOMC tomorrow and geocosmically we are entering massively critical reversal dates Jan 11-14 (yes I put a little stock in the voodoo…because it does work). The rest of the week will not be tradeable for Mama’s boys and Daddy’s spoiled little girls. It will be wild and it will be lethal. DO NOT ALLOW YOUR EGO TO RULE YOUR TRADE….you will be eaten. Serotonergic system activate…form of a cautious smart trader.(for fans of the Wonder twins).

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason I am looking for a reversal at anytime .. As stated previously biding my time and watching like a ….. JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73376d5358eb7421e9cd8c07b5be3ce83706a17a25184dcfd71b36eed533a384.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I take it you have 2 or 3 indicators?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Of course we are publicly….privately? I’m just reminding myself…..out loud. Couldn’t you tell I was a Mama’s boy?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes GG .. Mostly price and volume action (my husband taught me volume spread analysis) and support – resistance levels along with trend lines. Many people do not draw trend lines on intraday charts which are really valuable when overbought
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I’m in agreement with you Julie on the rising wedge…I see it eclipsing today’s high like a 5th wave (sorry) and then dropping like a cat for about 150 pts. But I do think we get another up because of some China deal agreement, Brexit blah, blah, blah…and then BOOM the big red pig.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I am getting ready to short. My 2579 target could be it . Will post when I pull the trigger JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1ab17d0c05e3bd4c464f40800477a83c0d7f486c21ffc74fb784978b6f655f53.png

  • ridingwaves

    why all you folks are waiting or playing a top or bottom, I’m printing money while out in the field on some symbol I mentioned below, next 15k trades please

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    have you considered an overnight over-throw of the lines and gap close in the AM?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie, hand me some tomatoes!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Overnight and a.m You are talkiing out of both sides of your mouth . Please be more precise as I am a blonde ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Just a reminder for those holding long to be careful. Gartman turned bullish yesterday.. https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/gartman-makes-watershed-bullish-call-game-has-changed-stocks-are-headed-higher

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice donkey breath GG … There is mouth wash available to ameliorate your problem ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also SP A gentle reminder to look at the declining volume SPY on this rally … Caution advised
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Symmetrically?….a good place to give-it-a-shot.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c32eb63e1c4b4176e6b94a020ce14a63062f69c0f9ec2553c019e6109704eec8.png

    old zigzag thinking.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    They are great for prostates, begin tossing asap

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Again $VIX at a level (15% below it’s 10 ema) where a reversal can occur at anytime. Does not have to go to lower Bollinger Band JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d4cc89562fcad087c1f7659293f1759b24cb472c1967db0c8fa56062b1176e0.png

  • evilasevildoes

    big fight here

  • TimeToPanic

    What, Julie and Mole over UNG? Nah.

  • evilasevildoes

    light vol floating higher

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    somebody’s got a big order upstairs?..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    How many RW ? They are cheaper by the dozen ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    Slowly floating up.
    We are in the middle of the Volume desert that Mole mentioned yesterday.
    Will news tomorrow cause it to rocket out of the volume desert or will it keep meandering until the volume area is no longer a desert?

    I see lots of reasons for longs to be nervous though.
    From the high in October (all time high?) to the recent bottom (day after Christmas?) today appears to have touched the first Fib retracement.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV Right at an upper trend line drawn from today’s 2567.73 — 2572.37.. Could fail here .. Watching closely
    JULIE

  • Ted

    I’ve been long IWM since the close on Friday. Selling at the close, taking event risk off the table.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Smart move IMO Ted Overbought bear market
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Possible failure at the upper trend line in reply to EV directly below .. Yeah !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check

  • Ted

    Had I not bailed on my original purchase on the Friday before Christmas, I would have gotten my wallet back today with a little profit. I still have plenty of work to do to recover from that bad entry and bad exit.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    15 left GG .. What a battle at the trend line posted
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s why I mentioned jump the line.
    I’ve seen it before, way way back when Mole visited Korea.

    https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/170920143540-north-korea-south-korea-tease-large-169.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You will get t back Ted .. I like your Williams 14 % below 95 .. It’s a good one . Thanks for sharing
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good for daily too, just have to tighten the outer envelope.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Nibbling short (small probe against today’s high which was a target
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL! GG No nervous kitty !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    just to be clear, no entries today for me.

  • zzezzezz

    grabbing some IWM and QQQ puts here….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A very very small short probe against today’s high. Possibly will retain if a move higher.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    It really has to be below 98. Only on Christmas Eve did they leave the market for dead. Final tick was the low of the day.

  • TimeToPanic

    I redrew my fibs today and noticed that fib line.

    It’s the neckline of a year-long H&S, surely huge resistance.

  • Ted

    Look at this folks. IWM has led this rally. It is now overbought. If you’re bullish you do not want to see a daily stick close at the top. Look at the Williams percent R, this must pullback at the very least. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f5ead77141f4166457a2147c9927d57fe15de31f07bd0203dccff18d758e5f1.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • evilasevildoes

    lotta folks are bearish cuidado

  • TimeToPanic

    What is a ‘daily stick close’ please?

  • TimeToPanic

    I believe earnings season is about to get underway. Samsung had crappy results.
    I wonder if US results will be good/bad or indifferent?
    I read somewhere recently that a bear market of 50% happened during the 70s even as earnings rose every single quarter, but multiples were adjusted lower by the market.

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    I remember 120 and the low

  • evilasevildoes

    314 is in white my fave ema

  • evilasevildoes
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gonna need my 3d glasses for this one!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • evilasevildoes
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Wave_surfer

    Candlestick on a daily chart
    Closing at the top of the candlestick

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Market is not going up on an inordinate amount of buying. It is going up for lack of selling. Wait until selling resumes and the institutions head for the exits all at once which they do.When the trap door opens the Bulls caught off guard will be O Roaking ! O ROAK !
    JULIE

  • Ted

    No top wick when an item is overbought produces a near 0 Williams % R. Look what happened the two previous times that happened in the chart.

  • Ted

    Most think we come back to test the low.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m betting a lot on this, you better be right 50 percent gurl.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/997ee141ce5cb18dd403ad5af4e748259a9f7f738367b8fb1e95d051c720e617.png

  • Wave_surfer

    Looking at how the last weekly candle is shaped after the end of 2 days of this week.
    Also changing it to daily candles, it is clear Risk is ON. At least for now.
    The question is whether we will do another move down or if we have already had our “V” bottom the day after Christmas.

  • Wave_surfer

    Is fading him the most accurate indicator there is??
    Or can he be right 5% of the time?
    We will see.
    Wild news coming so it can easily take a dump here.
    Or it can continue to climb a wall of worry over the volume hole desert.

    Everyone double check your stop-loss and make sure it is where you want it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG .. A lot ? Should be a probe then pour the coals below 2527 – 2530
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    I noticed that the 3 times Williams went to essentially 0 in May and June it climbed 2 more days before going down.
    I still remember the scars from the 2nd half of 2009.
    Lesson: After a strong fall, the market might choose to climb up not even doing the simple basic dips it would normally do before climbing again.

  • evilasevildoes

    Julie do you watch the bond spreads for money flow?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you’re right. What if I just close my eyes?

    http://www.jcda.ca/sites/default/files/a36/Dental_Syringe_3010587.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BTW GG .. Ummm ! Your fib retracement should be reversed Your 100 should be where 0 is.Perhaps you have been drinking ? ? Yes ! !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    or take GE for example.

    “when do you sell? SELL IT ALL?”
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GE&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p7737451052c

  • Wave_surfer

    Under the category of irresponsible calls and intuition.
    What if we cross the desert of volume hole and paint a medium term high on Thursday around noon (Eastern) and then fall back through the volume desert again?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    then Mole will eat a body part..selected by forum members.
    😉
    https://www.bitguru.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/john-mcafee.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi EV Yes I do . I really watch the credit markets like the Chief. $TED and $LIBOR 3 These are very important .. $LIBOR 3 has been trending higher for a long time. Also the Chicago Fed has an indicator for the banks whicjh is very useful. Of all the FED Reserve Banks Chicago Fed most important even superceding the NY Fed Easy access the Chicago Fed i.e. their website . When we lived in Oregon there is a FED Bank in Portland. My husband would make an appointment to see someone there and you would not believe the info they would divulge. They just loved to talk and spill the beans. If you live near a FED bank make an appointment and see them . Unreal EV
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    Losing 75% of its value is a LOT of pain for a lot of people. Certainly, people that were holding it at 30 needed to be out of it long ago.

    I would not want to put my money now long on GE, but a company that large that actually gets Billions in revenue, will probably not go to zero.

    Then again going to 4, would mean you would lose a catastrophic 50% if you bought today and it could do that.

    Bargain hunters might find a bargain once there is a sign that a bottom is in.

    My comments about the market climbing up without even a reasonable sized dip is for the 500 companies of S&P and the 2000 companies of Russell and not for a single company that might sued to the point it might no longer exist.

  • Wave_surfer

    To be clear, I do agree that having Williams %R essentially go up to zero, is a strong reason to sell.
    But it is also not a certainty that the market will go down. May and June of 2018 was not an insane raging bull market and yet after going to the ceiling with Williams, it still climbed for another 2 days and it did it 3 times out of the 3 times after Williams went to ceiling.

  • Jason13

    Last time this happened was Mar 09…happened yesterday. What does it mean? Who knows.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a2331257aaba3962ee2478e38cbfabf91513676e20625b7c512a76b93acc07ca.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    very good comments.

    GM went to zero.
    fortunately I put half on GM and the other half on FORD.
    AND I sold GM at 2.50 for a 50% loss. better than zero.

  • TimeToPanic

    OK, thanks, looks like that happened today too.

  • Wave_surfer

    I see it also hit the same exact reading in June of 2011, which was right after a fast move down and it marked the bottom of the market.

    March 2009 was another time when it shot melted up without dips after strong move down.

    February or March 2016 $NYMO went even higher. After the reading, the shot a lot higher after having a fast, quick and hard move down, similar to now.

    A 3rd place (beginning of October 2015) where it reached as high as it is now, was also after the market had move down hard and fast and a bottom had been reached and it shot up strongly for another 4 weeks.

    Looking at this chart, it seems like 100% of the time (for the last 10 years!) that $NYMO (weekly) readings got this high happened only after a strong move down and after it had bounced strongly. Every time after this reading, it appears that it was not the end of a move up, but a climb that was sustained for weeks longer.

    Thanks for sharing the chart Jason

  • Wave_surfer

    Do I get to pick the body part? hehe…
    Is that Roger Waters?

  • Wave_surfer

    Fibonacci levels are symmetrical.
    100%
    0%
    It’s all the same 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    John McAfee – antivirus founder.

  • TimeToPanic

    June 11 wasn’t a bottom. 3 weeks up from there (edit, just 2 weeks up ti l the turn came), then a crumble to new lows through the summer.

  • TimeToPanic

    True, but on my system, putting it the way Julie describes gives the 1.618 and 2.618 extensions in the direction of the trend.

  • TimeToPanic

    Also, same in October 15. Whilst the market dd rise from the Sept low with this reading also going up, it crumbled along way over the next few months into Jan 16.

  • Wave_surfer

    For me, 3 weeks is 5 lifetimes.
    A really long sustained move!

  • Wave_surfer

    Months later. So, then is your plan to go long here and then go short in May?

  • evilasevildoes
  • TimeToPanic

    No, but I do expect a re-test of the lows imminently, hence I’m short. Not sure this indicator is of much use really.

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s really spooky when you move your fibs to reflect the recent low.

    The fib levels very often represent significant resistance/support levels for the market, but BEFORE the new low even existed. How did the market know a fib would appear there in the future? Weird shit.

  • TimeToPanic
  • TimeToPanic
  • Ted

    Thanks for sharing this.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    +3

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • Wave_surfer

    What does this chart show you?

  • Ivan Hrusovsky

    trend separation

  • Ivan Hrusovsky

    trend separation, and also creation and concentration of supports and resistances…

  • ridingwaves

    sweet…..winner winner, chicken dinner.