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Labor Day Lottery Long
97

Labor Day Lottery Long

by The MoleAugust 30, 2019

As most of you guys most likely have a foot out of the door already let’s just stick with the task at hand. Although seasonal stats continue to point lower for the coming week I cannot ignore a possible break-out surprise move ahead of the NYSE open.

Triple bottoms – in particular within a contained range – look obvious in the aftermath but are actually tricky to trade as timing is everything when it comes to avoiding that last minute stop run.

On the upside probability of outcome is heavily outweighed by the vehemence of an anticipated move once it finally gets going. In other words – markets have a tendency to shake off weak hands before the onset of an extended short squeeze.

Caveat

If this thing turns back lower and actually breaches < ES 2810 then watch out below! Technically speaking this would pretty much seal the deal on a very big move to the downside – we are talking ES 2500 minimum.

So in summary – we are coiled up and finally ready to go places.

How And What?

There are various ways of how to play this move and the most risky would be to buy a futures contract and hold it into Tuesday. A naked long option is always a bad idea, especially ahead of a long weekend full of theta burn plus with IV still jacking up premiums OTM.

With a simple vertical spread my downside risk would be limited to my debit – even if the ES opens at 2000 after the weekend. So I was considering an In/Out call strike but am unable to find something that is within the price range that makes sense statistically speaking.

There is another way to play this and it involves a call ratio spread in combination with a risk twist spread (which is similar to the former but adjusts for more skew). However this is an extensive topic that would most likely go right over everyone’s head.

Plus I have not sensed much interest when it comes to options on this board. If I am mistaken please let me know otherwise in the comment section and I will consider more pertinent topics in the future.

Keeping It Simple Stupid

Now I am not willing to sell a put spread on an index product in this environment so for now I’m holding a few futures contracts with a stop < ES 2875 which I will close out by the EOD.

It sucks but risk always trumps outcome. Remember, there are old traders and there are bold traders. However there are no old bold traders.

Who said that? An old trader 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Its true, bold at this point still very range bound doesn’t make much sense.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ULTA,
    LOL.

    what did I say?
    😉
    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ULTA

  • Rightside

    Mole much appreciated post heading into this weekend in this Vol environment. I do trade options regularly, amateurishly.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Tell me what you do and I’ll provide input.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief As stated yesterday must have a bullish close today above 2925.05
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying DRV (again) 28,41, still in TVIX from 16.5

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Definitely at an inflection point as posted yesterday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ema 50 *cough*

  • BKXtoZERO

    L more TVIX for day 18.15 on pullback, possible LKGB on ES

  • Rightside

    Here’s my last trade as an example, the trades are usually “hit em then quit em” XLY 117 30 AUG Puts on 8/21, closed 8/23. They had a good IV discount relative to a premium the week before, and XLY had gapped up and was closing outside of some bands I use for overbought

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..don’t think so. why? that red line has been violated more times than a …
    never-mind.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Compendium GG 2925.05 The close today very important
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no worries sweets
    Today is a SuperMooooon New AND Month End.

  • HD

    whew she’s a feisty one

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Happy Labor Day everyone!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    New girlfriend?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That would be nice.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You have a nice Labor Day too Chief
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I hope so! if she treats me well.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like a gold digger to me.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Watch for another leg lower 2926.88
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Dude, I don’t want to be rude what TF are you doing! XLY is completely illiquid. I used ThinkBack in TOS to see the option chain on that day.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d2ebcd86083f816d954524bb5f84cce38520da71b70f58e623139f026804856.png

    There was no bid for those things and the only reason you got away with this is because it moved FAR into your direction.

    FFS – this is why people lose money trading options. Liquidity is KEY and there is NO reason to trade a shit contract like that.

  • HD

    IDK how this months coil would resolve bullishly but there are tweets.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7cc4405d5ae46012718c040303e9528f60322420eba6fbe6648a5fe10093ef5.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 2926.88 I may have been 1 point off Sorry Guys Won’t happen again lol Everyone Have A Great Labor Day
    JULIE

  • Phillip Reeder

    so does the chief stick to his guns on the trades he takes? or does he move stops and get out when not in his favor? trying to learn how he trades that’s all thanks

  • Cyd

    Cotton play BAL up visual stop and watching 36.12
    Cyd

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    They will not let the market dump before this Holiday.Consumer must spend esp back to school and football
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Confidence is Everything.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark checkout the Banks $BKX holding exactly it’s 21 ema @ 92,89
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    He uses trailing stops after successful entry which with him is most of the time

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    It’s a German thing.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    might get a dump – if worries about the next shot in the trade war comes over the long weekend..
    Happened a few weeks ago..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Catracho last Friday
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    haha – must be my holiday makes weeks seem like months

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I knew there would be another leg down today Had 2926.88 posted and went up to about 2928 I did not day trade a short could have but just watching
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    they will not let the market dump…..wait a minute….there’s the other leg down.

    You’re sounding bipolar Julez.
    https://ocean1025.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/renaissance-fest-turkey-leg.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It’s not a dump GG Down less than 0.20 % Now last Friday was a dump.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    I got your holiday weekend right here….. working on a bearish tail.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/91e78d756bcedb8c08cd8a311a4cc38676eee4298683dcb684fb704b95b9512b.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Holding? I’ll likely be small short.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • BKXtoZERO

    Aaaarg. Why don’t they just go easy on old BK.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Lol. Thanks for the warning julie

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Be careful short Have A Great Labor Day BK
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Will hold same small tvix from 16.5. Taking today’s off. Holding moderate DRV

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Don’t like to short on a holiday but I’ll keep a finger in the trigger next week. Watch NOW setting up to fall (?).

    ULTA is now a value stock for long term investors who did not take profits long ago.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Buying steel underwear tonight

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    NOW filled a gap today and bounced
    JULIE

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    FOXF and ATVI on my hit list. Death stars GE, APA and ATVI.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Was interesting to see both drv/drn negative at the same time today, still no position for me there. drv trend inverse has largely modeled the equity indexes.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Oooot of today’s tvix small ding. Holding small from 16.5. Downsized DRV AND Holding small DRV from today. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND RATS

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Not ready yet just on the watching list.

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Today a second close above a now turned up 21 ema The 5 ema about to cross above 21 ema.SPX closes above the important 2925.05 level for the week. Be careful Bears
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Looking more bullish than last time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    “You can’y buy class.”

    It’s all about the Benji’s Mnunchin
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f65673357d005832c923487ffac47d39a0b5d633f376f4576662f37f839b0065.png
    I really should try trading this toilet paper. Nah, I’ll stick with gold.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Weekly DOW,
    Hope you are having a relaxing US Labor Day.
    My old globalist employer didn’t give two rat tails about employees, that I will never forget.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7cbf922bcbdd42f287a453ee4983564d23e777d3b2db73ff02defe7bc6fc40d0.png

    The bears fumbled the ball this week. This was the time to get out of the end zone, and push to 24K.

    If the DOW gets above 27K again, a breakout can run till Thanksgiving/Xmas.
    and just imagine what a short covering run *that* would be.
    (GG pages thru the Victoria secret Christmas catalog. LOL)

    The moving averages are catching up, and as you can see, lend support to the bulls.
    This is a macro analysis, and doesn’t concern the daily jiggles.
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Checkout FB Weekly chart Bounce off lower channel ; 38.2% retracement ; weekly 55 ema oversold. Closing week above 184.75 the baseline (21) GG glad that you follow stocks also in lieu of the indices.Mole’s exhortation to trade stocks instead of E Mini exclusively.We have always traded the IBD 50 are money makers.GG Just checking the blog after a late start today as we are going up to Hyalite Lake shortly https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b57c9c7482e4ca7a86db0dca2b8df1dbfadcfbb0e7fb7be191ccddaba2ecd49e.png
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    catch some fish for me. and ps. don’t fall in.
    LOL.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL I fell in Hebgen Lake near West Yellowstone MT Hyalite Lake is a beautiful lake just south of town in the Gallatin Natl Forest.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ps. Platinum makes great fishing lures, but the last three days has been UP. so you might want to keep the rings.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    he he he he he he……………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I’m sure it will wash right out..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Opposite George Trading – I’m not just a member, I’m the President.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb7924f388454a3ef8dd874fc56245d1f21c8fa985f125ef11e14458214bd95f.png

  • Cyd

    We were able to see the Northern Lights last night
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah yeah, and you were in your pajamas.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Yeah Uh Hmm pajamas ? LOL
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    We can see them every year MT
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    so, looking at the pictures. was is just green? blue? mixed?

  • Cyd

    Green is the most visible color GG

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    mother nature’s static cling. LOL.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPfxx9xgeyA

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reminds me of Halloween.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    Were being soaped GG AMA has lowered the standards for HBP and diabetes . Now hearing Get this I am borderline for hearing aids.What ! I hear just fine Unreal how they are trying to soap us
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    people are running out of money for healthcare.
    so they move the goalposts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Cyd

    I certainly understand the cost of hospital stays and doctor visits. BUT Drug and pharmaceutical costs in the U.S. When everywhere else is 1/10 our cost. Shame GG

    Cyd

  • Cyd

    The Bible has phrases depicting the treatment of disease. A great sermon Like Cures Like You are bitten by a rattlesnake and what is the cure or antidote ? Europe is way ahead of U.S. in treatments especially cancer
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Technology will fix everything. But you will need $$$ first.
    Welcome to Elysium.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4gmgTebHog

  • Cyd

    Vaccinations Like Cures Like GG
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Unreal the properties of silver which is natures way of combating viruses and bacteria.The phrase “Born with a silver spoon in their mouth” The rich knew the property of silve and gave silver spoons for their children to suck on so they would not become ill
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Knowledge is power GG One of the greatest achievements is self education. Julie and I are both college grads. Her husband is not but is basically self educated and one of the most accomplished and intelligent men I know. His sister is the first college grad in the family but the family has been very successful.Julie is fortunate and she knows it and very blessed
    Cyd

  • RoastBeeph

    What just happened?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What DID happen?

  • BKXtoZERO

    he he he he

  • BKXtoZERO

    they woke up on Monday

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    it’s Tuesday over there silly.

    in other news, I will choose chicken for Lunch.
    https://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/whataburger-rat-fryer

    *warning*
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqYf_fkfRc8
    *warning*

  • BKXtoZERO

    Then wait til they wake up on WEDNESDAY!