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Late Monday Quickie
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Late Monday Quickie

by The MoleJanuary 26, 2015

I really don’t have much to add to this morning’s musings. We got a little fake out at the open but equities have been holding the line and our ST campaign is in good shape. However we are still trading below the 2062 inflection point I established early last week – it needs to be conquered and that post haste.

2015-01-26_spoos_update

There’s a typo on the chart – I meant 2062 and we need to close above it – period. Until that happens the bears still have a sliver of a chance to take this dog lower. However, that said – I hate this tape and consider it high risk territory.

2015-01-26_zero

Once again participation (courtesy of the Zero indicator) is non-existent, suggesting this advance is driven by a few major players. I don’t wager to guess which way it’ll lead but what I do know is that intra-day volatility is here to stay with us for a while. Even if this resolves higher and paints new high there is no telling when we turn on a dime again and suddenly dive lower.

Just for the record – I am not talking my own book here. I’m actually long the ES from this morning and still long in my NQ Thor campaign, which I professed last week was emotionally difficult to enter but thus far seems to be paying off.

2015-01-26_soybean_oil_entry

Otherwise I want you to keep an eye on soybean oil – not because it’s delicious but because it’s at a LT inflection point and thus we are looking for opportunities for a snap higher. The best approach IMO is to look for ST entries and build ourselves up from there. I don’t see any right now but let’s put it on our watch list. A drop off the plate is of course a possibility but unfortunately I don’t see a good entry for that right now, perhaps if we correct higher for a LKGB first.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • unhedged

    This title reminds me of something my wife said to me last week.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You lucky dog!

  • Billabong

    LOL (belly laugh).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Bullish Percentage is about to signal bully for me.
    [BPSPX – nonrenko]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p64938996057

    High Yield poised to jumper higher
    [HYG]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p69605297756

    but no predictive quality. so I wait.

  • DarthTrader

    I don’t eat Quiche . . .

  • BobbyLow

    Been a frustrating day today. First thing that happened was my TOS platform got so screwed up that I had to re-install it. What tech support and I think might have happened is that because my original download was so many years ago, and after 4 million fucking updates, the platform got too heavy or some bad shit corrupted some key files. I had to recreate my charts and all that rot and it seems to be working OK now.

    Then there is fucking Windows 8. I had mentioned that there is a bug in the operating system where the disc goes to 100% and freezes everything and I have to go to my task manager and end tasks to unfreeze it. (I’m not sure if this has affected all PC’s with W8 or just some makes. Mine is a Samsung) There is a fix for it where I have to go into my registry and go through a bunch of steps but I’ve been reluctant to do this. The problem INTERMITANT and “only” happens a few times a day. My computer is only a little over a year old and I should not be experiencing this shit.

    As much as I have fought this, my next computer might have to be a Mac. I never here of Mac owners going through this stuff. If any of you have please tell me.

    On the trading front, I did manage to close a winning trade on a Long GBP/JPY in between all this shit. I’m also still Long DJUSEN via DIG and neutral on Oil.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t get me started on the never ending updates on TOS. It’s so frustrating that they are introducing all these shitty unneeded features while you need a fu….ing super computer to run the damn app on OS X? I cannot run TOS all day as it would burn through my MBP – the processor is always at 100%+ and the fans are running at high speeds.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oh and there is no way I’ll ever run Win8 – what these idiots at M$ were thinking is beyond me. A bloody touchscreen interface on a desktop app? The guys who made that call should be taken out at dawn and shot!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Lonely here today – where are all my steel rats?

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, in MS’s infinite wisdom they removed the Start Button on Windows 8 and I hated it. For $5.00, I installed Stardoc that made the screen look like Windows 7 with a Start Button. If anyone has W8 and needs or wants the W7 look here’s the link.

    http://www.stardock.com/products/start8/

    Windows 8.1 supposedly has a start button (but I read that they even complicated this) and I can download it for free but 8.1 has even more new and improved shit that I do not want. So I’m stuck with this crap until my next computer.

  • wandering196

    standing aside for the time being

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Textbook FTP (Fade the Paper) opportunity in Dow etc during my yesterday … there must have been a few on that ride … to make / help it go up … so thank you to those who were.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    ‘Start Menu X’ does the same … sans the fee.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Always always fade the paper.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    M – well … actually not a wise idea … to ‘always always’ … some opportunities are far more favourable than others … yesterday was one such event in the Dow etc.

    EDIT: A simple RSI of the Open can be extremely insightful … in sorting what to fade.

  • captainboom

    FWIW… I run ToS for charting with a paper trading account on a 2010 vintage MacBook Pro, and have no issues. If I run IB’s Trader Work Station at the same time on the same machine, it slows down noticeably. As a result, I run ToS on a 13″ MBP, and TWS on a 17″ MBP.

    I’ve used Macs for many years, and I can’t believe the crap that Windows is/was. I have some pyro choreography software that I have to run in Windows, so I use Win 7 in Parallels on a 2011 iMac and my 2010 MBP. That works fine, except that Windows is such crap. My wife went to use the pyro software today, and was complaining that it is such a dog. We only use Win 7 to run the pyro software, and since it’s not on every day, it bogs down significantly with all the system and antivirus updates that have to run. Then a restart to apply them, and it’s ready to run. Pisses away at least a half hour every time we want to use it.

    For trading, my recommendation is to buy the fastest Mac you can afford, and max out the memory. If you have to run Windows for something, you can do it in Parallels ($50), and that generally works well. If you can qualify for education pricing, look in their education store to save some money, or consider buying a refurb from their refurb store. I’ve had good luck with the refurbs. Regarding the Ed store, they don’t check if you order online, and they’ll even give you the price break if you homeschool.

    To be fair, I’m not convinced that the latest version of the Mac OS, Yosemite, is ready for prime time; but I think it’s still light years ahead of Windows. I’m still running Snow Leopard on two machines, Mavericks on another, and experimenting with Yosemite in a partition on one of the Snow Leopard machines.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Redundancy. As a professional, you should have multiple paths for operations.

  • BobbyLow

    Reduntant this. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    *groan*

    I for one, Welcome our Mac Overlords.

    http://tech.mthai.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/fd.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for the info Captain. I appreciate it.

    I bought a new HP Laptop with Win 7 about 3 years ago and ran it for about a year and 1/2 before the cooling fan broke. I now have an auxillary fan cradle for it and use it for a back up.

    I bought my current Samsung laptop when the HP broke and it ran fine until about a month ago when this current Windows 8 problem happened.

    With the money I’ve spent on both PC laptops, I could have had a decent Mac. When this Samsung becomes too much of a problem to bear then I’ll definitely look into buying a Mac. In the mean time, I’m going to try to milk a little more time out of it. (if I can stand it) 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    When talking to Ivan always expect him to contradict you. It’s just what he does.

  • Scott Phillips

    You say black – he say white 😉

  • captainboom

    It all comes down to “What is your time worth?” All the time that I’ve *not* had to spend screwing around with Windows, has made the purchase price of the Mac very competitive. That, and because of the high quality of the equipment, I keep them going for many years. e.g. The three currently operating machines that were purchased new are doing fine, and the youngest is 3 years old. I also have a 6 year old Xserve I purchased used that is still chugging along just fine.

    I’m starting to want a new one for myself, and that’s because I bought my personal MBP the day after a major personal catastrophe that destroyed my old one. Because I was under duress to get a replacement machine immediately, I didn’t get the highest end available at the time. 4.5 years of all day every day use, and it still works. It’s not an absolute ‘need’ to get a new one yet, so I’ll put it off as long as I can.

  • Scott Phillips

    Mole says the same thing about running parallels. I tried it, and it worked, but was slow. I can’t see the point in spending 3K on a mac and having it run like a 2009 era windows machine.

    Trading is a windows-centric activity, virtually everything you will use is windows software first and ported to OSX as an afterthought. As long as you run macs you are going to be stuck with a smaller choice of software, or tempted to use crappy retail platforms like TOS

  • captainboom
  • captainboom

    Bobbylow’s initial post was re: ToS, hence my answer.

    Agreed on the software availability re: trading platforms. That is slowly changing, due to the increase in Mac market share. An option to run Windows alone is to use a Bootcamp partition, but that defeats the purpose of running the Mac OS. I think it helps to install Windows via Bootcamp, and then use Parallels to access it, but I don’t have quantitative data to support that opinion.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Great to see that the real message strikes home … or not.

  • arkhamb

    Don’t understand how anyone who has used a computer before 2012 can put up with Windows 8. If Microsoft was a new company and that was their main product, they would have gone out of business.

  • saltwaterdog

    careful Ivan, we need you here so don’t get yourself blocked again please

  • phylum

    That makes the “grey matter” bubble & squeak!

  • phylum

    Bobby, Mac’s OS is basically a Unix incantation, which has been around well before Mr Windows, they got smart, he didn’t. Unix is way better and has been around way longer (google it).

    Personally, I use Motivewave (a Java thang), for better or worse Java is operable over multiple systems (OS), scalable (i.e. write your own shit), and rebootable (everything crashes!) ….. just trying to help you get frustrated:)

    ps At least, Mac’s work:)

    Edit: Disclaimer: I bought my first Mac (SE) in 1984 and have never, ever, gone to the dark side:)

  • phylum

    Surely backing up one’s fortitude is not a means to thus…..

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    GG – Spot on … ‘but I will get the right tools / equipment / hardware / software … when I make some money’ … is a common refrain.

    PS. ‘As a professional’ … or as a logical thinking person ? One ‘should’ have the right tools from the start … and this does not equate to tens of thousands of USA dollars / SDRs … or local equivalent.

  • Careus

    Mole or someone who know how to code, can you please test what Ivan says about RSI of the Open and fading…so we can all say thanks to him or we can say him to stop talking without evidence

  • mugabe

    no he doesn’t

  • captainboom

    Calculate RSI of Open only, or OHLC?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Up and down up and down – I think I’m getting sea sick…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    jeje – capullo 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The RSI is actually an oscillator – here’s the formula:

    RSI = 100 – 100/(1 + RS*)

    *Where RS = Average of x days’ up closes / Average of x days’ down closes.

    The problem with the RSI as with the stochastic or the MACD is that it can easily become embedded above or below the 20/80 or 30/70 threshold.

    Ivan knows better than to keep throwing out shark bait here (which I’m now guilty of responding to). Outside of a specific situation the statement is nothing but vague and can be interpreted ten gazillion times until Sundays. He always makes it sound as if there’s some ‘market magic’ and there’s not.

    To quote Ivan himself: “learn how to read the language of the market” – and for that I have offered various approaches over the years. The most important one is PRICE. The Zero is my homebrew approach to measure participation which is an element usually neglected or only implicitly considered by traders.

    So if you want my take on this: Watch a few Zero videos for free (link below the Zero menu) and then compare it with RSI or any of the other vanilla indicators offered by trading apps. Decide for yourself which one would be most valuable. I personally go with the Zero every time but I’m biased.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He would argue with that as well 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m tempted but I have learned to respect my elders.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually Parallels is pretty snappy! The problem is that it runs the CPU pretty high and I’m worried about over heating my MBP.

    Actually the BEST solution these days is to use a Mac and a fast Internet connection and then use RDC. It’s pretty fucking fluid if you have a server in some data center or even a fast VM somewhere in the cloud.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly my point. I still have a MBP from late 2012 and although I’m tempted to replace it during my next L.A. trip this March I don’t think it’s really necessary.

  • Careus

    I agree on indicators, besides learning language of market one needs to know language of indicators if he uses them. I trust you and subs have benefit from zero indicator.

    I only thought investigating another idea could be beneficial….someone who has ability to test it …run test..and then we have conclusion for that idea. Maybe useful…maybe not…zero maybe better than that, maybe not…maybe some other idea comes to mind.

    I have been here almost from start of blog, and I have seen that Ivan almost desperately seeks someone who will do some work, and then to discover for himself what ‘old guy from Vanuatu’ has seen/discovered before. You guys using CI, and that comes form Ivan…so maybe this what he suggested, could be also implemented…who knows..we can discuss it until Sundays..but easier would be if we had some results to discuss

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ( ( ( ) * ____
    ) ) ) ) ) ) ( /( ( ` ( * ) | /
    (()/( (()/( ( (()/( )()) )))( ( ) ` ) /( | /
    /(_)) /(_))) /(_))((_) ((_)() ) ((((_)( ( )(_))| /
    (_))_|(_)) ((_) (_)) _((_) (_()((_)((_) ) _ ) (_(_()) |/
    | |_ | _ | __|/ __| | || | | / || __|(_)_(_)|_ _|(
    | __| | /| _| __ | __ | | |/| || _| / _ | | )
    |_| |_|_|___||___/ |_||_| |_| |_||___|/_/ _ |_| ((_)