Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Let’s Have A Quicky
143

Let’s Have A Quicky

by The MoleNovember 21, 2019

Yesterday’s session was rather intriguing in that my early suspicions of distribution near ATHs in equities were proven correct. How so? Look no further than our trusted Zero indicator which continues to provide us important guidance since 2008 and counting.

The session started fairly lackluster with more sideways vapor churn. However after a breach of the spike low near 3112 gravity suddenly set in (as in sell-side bots kicking into overdrive) and we quickly found ourselves 20 handles lower.

The mid session lows of 3090.75 has been attracting a growing number of dip buyers evidenced by a steady gyration higher. The question ratting around in your mind of course is this:

Can it be trusted?

Well, as much as the preceding sell-off I’d say. Which means not at all. Reason being that participation on both sides has been minimal and I don’t even have to look at the NYSE volume chart to know that there is plenty of monkey business going on.

Let’s do it anyway. See what I see there? That little dipper mid session barely made a dent in the UVOL signal. You look at this chart in isolation and you’d think we’d have had a rally day.

Option traders are sufficiently freaked out after this, and were already on guard since the beginning of the week (i.e. SPX:VIX was dragging lower – I posted this earlier this week for my intrepid subs).

Talking about mexed missages. So what to do?

Let’s Have A Quicky

I for one am grabbing a bit of long exposure for the following reason: NOTHING IS MAKING SENSE. And that usually means things are not unfolding as most participants anticipate.

IV is still at a large discount and I already bulked up on some MT protection on the option side. So a vertical call spread here is available for less than a lap dance at the Body Shop (ah, how I miss my old hunting grounds).

Alternatively grab a few ES contracts around here with a stop < 3090. But be aware that we are screwing around here without much technical context at the upper layer of the stratosphere. Another take down will probably bring us back to the 3050 mark and a revisit of 3k is not out of the question.

Shameless Plug

By the way if you’re not a Zero subscriber yet then head over to the sign up page right now to gain access to the best market sentiment oscillator in the industry. A Zero subscription also includes Gold which means you will also have access to all private content reserved only to our members.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c
PayPal: https://paypal.me/evilspeculator

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh, it’s starting to make sense.
    IMHO, trade intraday, or trade weekly. but daily? – forget about it!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a1218c407269a723c6187721fd536e2390352b53b0d77f3136e6eeda8fe040e.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Volume is low, but CHECK OUT consumer discretionary WANT and PASS

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “The LORD is my shepherd; I shall not want.”
    Smart Deity.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    The damm writer used the wrong word for Covet

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah – these things happen.

    Kinda like the DOW index.
    😉

    “In the 1490’s another Oxford professor, and the personal physician to King Henry the 7th and 8th, Thomas Linacre, decided to learn Greek. After reading the Gospels in Greek, and comparing it to the Latin Vulgate, he wrote in his diary, “Either this (the original Greek) is not the Gospel… or we are not Christians.” The Latin had become so corrupt that it no longer even preserved the message of the Gospel… yet the Church still threatened to kill anyone who read the scripture in any language other than Latin… though Latin was not an original language of the scriptures.”

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, and America’s increasingly technocratic courts rule on law without application of conscience which guides the preservation of good law.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Still doing tvix game on, tight stops.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s not looking good folks – this is a mighty signal to the downside:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/40b8fed25a9f4176a54d8eaa35322826360a3253c95b34866b0af7409d4008c1.png

  • pepe

    Sold AMD $41 putters for 2R. Close enough for my $39.50 target.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Thursday’s *can* be big movers.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Some sort of respectable retesting of yesterday would make sense.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    A break of 3090 would confirm.

  • ridingwaves

    interesting NG angle….my charts have golden cross by .10 right now…
    first time since 9/17/18

  • ridingwaves

    scalping UGAZ, today’s low S

  • HD
  • pepe

    Looks like there is no WFC short to be had. Back above daily EMA5 and most likely exploding higher as the interest rates are rebounding. Only sideways consolidation (sic).

  • pepe

    Long WFC @ $53.75.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L tvix 7.45 (again) on day only unless it signals hard, still holding mid size position down on

  • HD

    Do any of the indices have a pattern or symmetry? These new BOTs suck.

  • BKXtoZERO

    their job is to make EVERYONE unhappy I guess

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    welcome to the “next level”.

    didn’t you recognize the double-udder pattern?
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c96e9a3b6bc6f8ffc7a930856d6a98d6e0c3a6fa937d094d4cf39588800c8379.png

  • Darkthirty

    Sounds like the monk that found the transcription error of celibate / celebrate………

  • HD

    It’s working. Gotta adapt I guess.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Futility of tic-tac-toe.

  • HD

    I know some want to claim only quants are the smart money but I know people personally who are long from under 2000 and not even watching the market. Easy

  • Mark Shinnick

    If a ES pop, might be happening pretty soon. Watch out for a fake-out.

  • HD

    SPX has spent very little time dipping under 3100 roundy. Want to see sellers keep the heat going for a minute under there. Then the big boys will piggy back that trade.

  • HD

    Are there any open gaps on SPX? Lol. Don’t actually have to answer that.

  • HD

    Maybe 5% get filled w any quantifiable edge. Maybe.

  • Darkthirty

    Have double fibs on 1 minute at 3105 3107 . That said, ES follows nothing to the letter. I know it’s redundant, but since the 08 bailout and the algo takeover, the whole game has changed. NONE of the historical patterns can be relied upon….IMO

  • pepe

    Long AMD @ $39.05. This market is only going up. Lots of long setups on this pullback.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    reminds me of an old commercial.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=faH1FXPqymU

  • Darkthirty

    DJI rejected at gap fill….

  • BKXtoZERO

    That is why I TRUST my own stupidity after trying all other TA

  • Darkthirty

    3118 would be symmetrical – 3117 would be 618

  • Darkthirty

    That’s all you can do, TA / old stuff only works on down moves, which I assume means the artificial intervention is minimal. Hell, I dunno either!

  • HD

    I thought they were still ok until 16, not so much now.

  • ridingwaves

    bought some CHK bottom feeding, catfish soup….

  • Cyd

    SPX Like yesterday another bounce exactly off the lower 60 minute cloud
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f022db927db025b6d0a77a399a485e85bf36f5eccc839420dbe81dafa589dec.png

  • Cyd

    GOLD (Barrick) Stopped out of remaining 1/2 long at B/E this a.m. Made a small amount on 1st 1/2 long position similar to UNP. We still maintain a very small short probe SH.our only position
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Yeah, I noticed they change the parameters occasionally. Maybe when traders catch the patterns and cut into the profits too much they reset? I used to be able to watch the DOW, and ES was 10% of that. They are completely disassociated now.

  • Cyd

    @ PEPE We have not shorted WFC yet.Pattern looks like a sideways consolidation as it’s sector $BKX

  • pepe

    I’m long WFC now as it has clearly shown – twice – that it’s not going any lower than $53.10 for the foreseeable future. Buying the dips until it breaks out again seems to be the most profitable strategy. 🙂

  • Cyd

    Yes Pepe the dipsters have come in. We must remember that next week is a Holiday with holiday volume and tomorrow is Friday which are usually neutral to positive. The Big Boys will do everything within their capabilities to keep the market up for Black Friday so the consumer will not be spooked and to Spend Spend Spend.GDP is 70% consumer driven
    Cyd

  • bankwalker

    long /ES 3105

  • ridingwaves

    you would think with retail carnage Reits would sell off, but then lower interest rates play bullish for sector Capex and divi

  • Cyd

    SPX Not sure if anyone has noticed BUT yesterday and today a triangle developing with a possible C leg in progress
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Triangle visible on intraday charts.
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Inside info?

  • Darkthirty

    went short there, quickie? we’ll see….

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Darkthirty

    yup

  • ridingwaves

    well he does have the 4th year in presidential cycle going for him…..only 3rd is better

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Nope. Julie said this last Thanksgiving. she was wrong, wrong wrong.

    show me a correlation!! I’ll show you an outlier.
    =P
    (that’s 2018 below)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/069141179106961878e69ca613a8da6faccee1acd5b2216af2d31fa3ec3aeccb.png

  • Cyd

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d0745724ce35027c36c6ef90df35596315bea3ed9d6b35f4699bbb8604576cc.png @ Riding Waves (RW) EXAS another dump at multiple resistances. The 21 ema , downtrend line and resistance short term overbought Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..didn’t even make RSI 50.

  • Cyd

    Senor Gerb Julie says Hi . She can’t even break away she is so busy at work.Coworkers are taking time off and next week she has off. Rotation in her office. Everyone she works with is great and steps up to the plate covering others
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I know the feeling. I’m getting dumped on as well to the Holiday.
    no rest for the wicked.

  • Cyd

    LOL!
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I thought you were a lead dog. not a parrot.
    😉

  • Cyd

    Like you said yesterday the “Market comes first” LOL
    Cyd

  • pepe

    Over the past few months, systematically buying any dips has generate great returns, and trying to time the tops a losing proposition. Now we are less than 3 bps away from going green – again. Betting that the market will take a nose dive, especially semi and financials, has negative edge.

    That is at least my learning after almost four months trading: don’t fight the big boys (volume) or the tape (price), just flow with the direction and bank coins. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    given the two daily candles today, and their whisker tails.
    I take it anybody getting on the short bus will have to pay a premium, and wait.
    with no guarantee of results.
    Dam frustrating. take a chance and get lucky or not. That’s no skill.

  • Cyd

    Watch for a Triange Baby ! LOL!
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    3109 – 3111 is crucial
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If I had time, I’d grab some Picasso cubism and put triangles in strategic places.
    but I’m busy!

  • pepe

    SPX: Less than two handles away from closing above the EMA5 and back inside the bullish lower trend line. This market shrugs off everything, from failed trade deals to Hong Kong crisis. A 37 handle pullback was the only thing we got before roaring higher.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAD6Obi7Cag

  • ridingwaves

    the great wall of worry….

  • Cyd

    Pepe Refer to 60 minute chart SPX shown below 3109 – 3111 is crucial. 3109 is baseline 21 and 3111 will go above the 60 minute cloud
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    anybody notice BTC broke down below 8K

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    come man, it’s on ZeroHedge. I know what Orange Cheetos had for breakfast.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    zeroedge….a sharp razor for new trader beards….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s no shave November *cough*

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    men shots instead of lingerie and bikinis…. what is this world coming too..

    JWN reports after the bell, the shorts had perfect opportunity to unload this AM at 100sma…..and looks as though they did…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I mean, yeah – nothing makes sense!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    exit 3106.75

  • Darkthirty

    I quit shaving 5 days ago, a good biscuit duster keeps the cold at bay!

  • pepe

    A rising wedge (channel to some) is emerging on the hourly SPX. Since TA is dead I’ll interpret that as new highs tomorrow. 😉

  • ridingwaves

    Tommy Armour has been gone since 68….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    holy crap, that’s my Grandfather’s era.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    #TimeCheck.

  • ridingwaves

    NG after hours might be interesting….the report was bullish this AM, golden cross might drive some buy programs….more winter weather in next couple weeks….moved stop up a bit to cover widowmaker insurance fund

  • pepe

    The $20.50 callers at $0.10 Nov 22 exp looks like a good lottery ticket.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in… Bought this area

  • ridingwaves

    2.82 target looks ripe..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not really feeling it here, guys – very possible we’re getting another leg lower. If the overnight session doesn’t recover higher strap on your helmets tomorrow:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6afd38f9d508335a9c9322b9d556024e181d62ef6610405554e799a6f203819.png

  • ridingwaves

    retail is not dead…..yummy…..

  • ridingwaves

    late to cover shorts in JWN are now being served humble pie in aisle one…Happy Thanksgiving..
    pps ripe for run to 40’s over next 30 days…

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have had my helmet on for weeks but my helmet didn’t protect from upper cuts.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Full face – always.

  • Cyd

    SPX IMO leg D of triangle possibly complete Now for E leg ? Be careful long or short
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m not seeing it.
    =P

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger
  • Cyd

    UNP bounces off strong support and it’s 21 ema on low volume. It must get above it’s 5 ema and the broken uptrend line https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/293f75c130e89d3f580501e057e318ea4ef9378cb53713c8cf7e5060c8fd2d84.png

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    super crowded trade.

  • pepe

    Sold UNG Nov 22 long calls from yesterday’s close for a nice 2R. Holding AMD and WFC long. Up, up and away. 😉

  • pepe

    Short MU @ $46.20. Stop loss $46.40. Target $45.50.

  • ridingwaves

    nice scalp….
    not so nice in the 1800’s, unless Jeremiah Johnson

  • ridingwaves

    BKZ alert, Split on TVIX 1 for 5 on 12-2…….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    that’s what she said

  • Darkthirty

    I’m always on my back, all I can do is screw up……….

  • BKXtoZERO

    natty gas on the move from recent 2.50 /NG low

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty

    Blue arrows are showing PPT manipulation?

  • Cyd

    SPX 60 min chart Trading within the cloud.Very simple a breakout either above or below the cloud will be direction
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/566b444bc87856d83bbc78e84aada85e7627f0f9d8fa965cdbcebc62144cbf86.png

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Low implied volatility; low VIX are a bit of a concern here. There is very little participation so I guess that means poor liquidity. Market Ready for Squeeze!

  • Darkthirty

    Oak / chestnut mast very low this year….suggests a mild winter.

  • pepe

    Uber hit $30.11 resistance and pulled back. Short $29.70. Stop loss $30. Target upper teens.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05d6f7722cc131bb2bc760d59ad670d3021da2ca2dd067e863a4fd5eba8afa8e.png

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Next week gets less participation.

    – Biggest travel week of the year.
    – Wednesday biggest night of the year for bars
    – Thursday – we eat till we drop
    – Friday stupidest shopping day of the year. You Europeans get a free laugh watching Americans get crushed to death passing thought the doors of WongMart to get shit they don’t need. Trump should propose tariffs as a life saving measure.

  • Cyd
  • Cyd

    Pepe UBER going up into declining multiple moving averages overbought Stochs 5,3,2 and 8,5,3 Observe the bollinger band positive divergence preceding the latest move from 26 – 30 Also the BB pos divergence tipping off the bounce 2nd week Oct
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fd4a8e9e58f652a7a7e68e17f11e24c91ae6618bca578563dd464d2a4a22e513.png

  • mSquare

    $HD – Has been making new daily lows since earnings Monday.

    A possible bottom-fish candidate here?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p29402027928

    Look at dual $117s in Aug 2019 – Can have stop just below in $116s…

  • Cyd

    Hello Msquare I’m with you on https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a25bb6be8a7031c6f1d76fc078df61cbd37b51b2849bb372b45d50573da2a687.png HD Let’s see if it can bounce off multiple supports and it’s 144 ema like previous bounces off it’s 144 ema. Julie and I are proponents of pattern recognition. Also oversold
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    Hi Senor Gerb Where’s the Holy Grail 89 ? LOL!
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only for premium subscribers!
    😉

  • Cyd

    Would’t be a bad idea to check Lowes too
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sure. go for it.

    114/89 = 1.280 which is the Williams RATIO.
    not for blonde consumption.
    LOL.

  • Cyd

    SPX Thumbnail inset The 13 ema is holding where the dipsters have joined the party.Dumps below the 13 ema could spell trouble
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/beba744fbbc727006a9a6a67b0cd6adbee5c16718fe245335ddf95f3d9d41447.png

  • ridingwaves

    I’m going quail hunting in the desert….a nice walk even if I don’t shoot…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    thus no dog, but worse is dealing with loose shale rocks on a hill with shotgun in hand while heading to next draw…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have a 20 ga Iver Johnson single shot break open made in 1940 in excellent condition. Julie has a 20 ga Stevens single shot break open made in the 1920’s also in excellent condition. No way can we shoot 12’s
    Cyd and JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Lunch time and what a day. Everyone trade carefully. Popping in for a quickie.Everyone Have A Happy Thanksgiving
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    20 works for quail……more sporty, used to have a side by side .16 Remington that I wish I had today….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW We got our 20’s when we were both in college and have had them ever since. My husband has a Mossberg 12 ga with interchangeable barrels.I thinks one for a slug gun. Another for birds and the third for home defense which is a short barrel.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Happy Thanksgiving Chief and everyone. I am taking next week off as my parents and son will be in Bozeman. Our daughter was here recently and wont’t be here as she must work. Everything is wonderful with us and hope that everyone is able to spend time with family and friends.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    break opens – I knew Grizz was smart.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Last quail I got was the cat…withing about 20 minuets lined-up 6 of them on the living room carpet, laid down looked at us and purred.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Happy Thanksgiving Julie – have a great time.

  • ridingwaves

    Killing the R’s on trades this week for sure…man on fire

  • Cyd

    Leaving the office now and what a week.UNP the power of the weekly 21 , 55 and especially the “Holy Grail” 89

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a274551c4ba68c5d4f9ef9bf42239244d3dbff4a827fa65d938641d7d943ae53.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8de7221d1aeb6bb3f727bd9e3d4c08c0b251c15841f1182add4bb75f353ca22f.png
    (Log chart)

    January 2018, put it all on the line for a 100K target?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w7ARvQCsXHo

    The loss so far? 50%
    $13,855 to $7012
    Hopefully they didn’t have to move into their mum’s flat.

    Perhaps she never read them the story –
    “Jack and the Beanstalk” is an English fairy tale. It appeared as “The Story of Jack Spriggins and the Enchanted Bean” in 1734 and as Benjamin Tabart’s moralised “The History of Jack and the Bean-Stalk” in 1807.