Let’s Mix Things Up
See, I knew something was cooking! Last Friday I suggested a short term shake out was on the horizon and today’s session certainly does not disappoint. What I find most humorous about today’s sell-off is that most everyone expected a first session of the month buying frenzy. Boy, how I love the smell of burned pork on a cold December morning. Once again this proves my motto – just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you 😉
Now let’s sit back, relax, and mix things up a little Robert Jenkees style. Nothing like a good tune to get your senses tuned for some juicy setups.
Since I took this snapshot the spoos already sliced through and visited the 100-hour and of course the 100-day. As of now this is only a little short term shake out. However, should the 100-day be taken out then we may be seeing a few sideways days. Really bolstering the bulls’ trenches here is the daily NLSL which ought to be good for some additional support. If that one gives then the we’re looking at more downside but we’re far from that right now so don’t get your panties in a twist just yet.
Thy ole’ volume hole proved too much to bear this morning and we got a solid access denied at 1420. Better luck next time there, big boy. So for now we’re in shake out mode – volume hole on top and 100-day plus NLSL below. Whichever breaches is where things head next. Simple.
Since we’re looking at volume holes – here’s another that acted like a wall today over in crude. I think things will get interesting (and more expensive at the pump) once we push above 90.5. Great, I don’t remember asking for this on my list for Santa! They’re already serving gasoline with an eyedropper over here in Spain.
So we missed that juicy setup on copper – didn’t want to take the 100-day breach because the contract had rolled over and things were a bit out of alignment. And of course I’m kicking myself right now for being squeamish – but don’t lose faith in the Mole as another setup is on the horizon:
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Just so happens that we’re right at a weekly NLBL. A breach here most likely leads us higher. Bear in mind that this is a medium to long term setup. So a stop below the line is your parachute but remember it’ll probably need a few weeks to get to target, which is currently the 100-week SMA.
Soybeans – not everyone’s poison but it’s painting a great setup today. I want to be long here with a stop a few ticks below that 100-hour SMA. IF we get a push above the 25-day then things could accelerate higher. If we’re luck we even get a short squeeze – wouldn’t that be a shame? 😉
AUD/USD – I’m long with a stop below the 25-hour. We have some dual SMA support over on the daily side and if she pops above the 100-hour then that would be a good first sign that we’re continuing higher. I like trades like this that simply follow the trend and exploit temporary weakness near inflection points. Now if she breaches lower – well, I would probably not take the setup as the 25-hour BB is too narrow.
Now let’s zoom out a bit – we’re doing another weekly setup. Here’s the EUR/AUD which literally has gotten the crap kicked out of it in the past few years. But there are signs of life and it’s now tickling its second NLBL. A breach higher here could be a lot of fun.
EUR/JPY – I love this setup! Yes, another weekly – I really wasn’t looking for those but here they are! A sweet pop above the 100-week and we got a monthly NLBL breach plus a 25-month SMA breach. I consider it my patriotic duty as a market megalomaniac to get positioned here. Might take a bit of doing but I think the long term gain will be worth the pain. Just ask A’nold – he’s goona pump you up.
EUR/USD – I swear, I’m not doing this intentionally – another weekly! NLBL breach on the weekly side and we may just sneak by that monthly NLBL that’s still in the way. YES, there are two monthly SMAs above but we may be good until 1.34 – never underestimate the Dollar’s suicidal tendencies.
Of course that means I’ll have to raise all my subscription fees next year. Just kidding! (Or am I?)[/amprotect]