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Living Inside a Broken Clock: Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2010.
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Living Inside a Broken Clock: Tuesday, Jan. 12, 2010.

by The MoleJanuary 12, 2010

by gmak

Please check out the previous post by Mole (in a rare appearance straight from Las Vegas!) relating to the VIX REVERSAL (yum!).

 There are a million reasons to for this market to tank, and only one for it to go up. Guess which one wins for now?

Tick. Financial Institutions are rushing to push their faces into the public trough and become Primary Dealers. Tock. Cuomo is trying to fan the flames of public anger with Wall Street rewarding themselves with record bonuses from the public purse. Forest fires are easier to start than to put out. Tick. Banks are falling over themselves to get paid zero interest in short-term Tbills. Tock.  Households are reducing debt instead of consuming. Tick. US Mortgage Delinquencies EXCLUDING FORECLOSURES have reached 9.8%. Tock. The US has enormous short term maturities of Tbills that must be rolled over with the support of foreign, and sometimes hostile, nations. Tick. The 2y /20y spread hit 380 bps – the widest spread ever. The FED is trying really hard to encourage consumption and bank lending. Tock. There is scant economic data to support this steep upward slope on the yield curve. Tick. You just know that there is a nasty accident already happening inside the financial system and the cockroaches are scurrying to distract the public gaze from what it is. Tock.  Welcome to the broken clock.

Watch Chavez, what he tries in Venezela, and what happens to the country. If the FED is successful with the reflation game on the USD, it will be repeated elsewhere and it could happen here. Something similar happened in th ’70s as a result of Johnson’s “Great Society”, and Nixon and the Vietnam war. Trudeau and Nixon both tried wage and price controls – to no avail. It just led to shortages.

EQUITY

SPX opened higher and closed higher still above a TD risk line. The TA says that this trend will continue at least for 3 more days, followed by a reflex pullback. IF we are following classic TA, the pullback will be to the “Since Oct 21” trend line, which would be used as a launching pad for one last bid to convince the retail bid to come into the equity market.  -OR- SPX rises to test the “Since Sept 17” trend line before coming back dow to the “Since Aug 17” trend line – which looks like a channel that has been running for several months. -OR- This is just an overthrow, and SPX begins to head down to test the dashed green line at 1086, followed by a drop to the “Since Oct 2nd” trend line. One can make a case for almost any scenario – and support it well with Technical Analysis. The best thing to do is to swim with the current with smart entry points and insightful stop-loss triggers.

 

The ES daily chart shows another view of the current situation. It is either an overthrow of the wedge, or a clean break up. The red bar, so far this AM is suggesting an overthrow. I would not play this market more than intra-day, at this stage. And the action is definitely theta-burning on options.

I’m still constrained in what I can copy off of Bloomberg. Hopefully the situation will get resolved today. Asia was mixed.  Europe is red by about a percent.  China did move to increase Bank’s reserve requirements which is pressuring the EUR.

The DAX opened around yesterday’s close but has been weak after an initial attempt to move off of the lows. Utilities and Consumer Discretionary are among the weker sectors, along with Financials and Materials. Boy, the economy 6 months from now is going to be a yo-yo day-to-day, no? heh.

ES bounced around all night, constraied between two pivots. It sold off into the Europe open and then dropped straight down (about 5 points) in 5 minutes and is presently forming a bearish flag on that 5 min chart.  The only reason that I can see for the weakness is the news about China – and some insinuations about rate increases over there. Pivots:

  •  R2: 1153 = Would be a new high. Given the threat of less liquidity and higher interest rates, I think that this is on hold for now.
  • R1: 1147.75 = Ditto
  • Neutral: 1142.75 = Kept ES down all night
  • S1: 1137.50 = Was the floor until the China news hit.
  • S2: 1132 = Hasn’t been touched yet, but was the source of support on last Friday that led to the strong move up during the day and Sunday overnight.

 

 I would only go short if the S2 pivot is broken at 1132.50; This looks like a good place for a long with a stop just the other side of the pivot, and then double down if the move south starts to shift from 1 unit long to 1 unit short – if you are so inclined.

FX

I do not like this chart of DXY. It has 74.50 written all over it, with 70 as a possible next stop. I believe that the carry trade took a small break up to here, but is making a come back.

The 30 min chart is even scarier.

The only grain of hope for USD bulls is that the EUR attempted a break out, and has been rebuffed so far.

So far today, the USD is somewhat stronger – but starting to cool off. The CAD is flat. The Yen is stronger along with GBP. The EUR is weaker. Your guess is as good as mine. It looks like a move away from the growth /risk trade (look at the price of oil) along with some local macro speculation.

NEWS

  1. China moves to increase reserve requirements for banks, and intimates at higher rates. This could cool the economy – and the latest mini-rally in SPX is based on the China growth story (exports and imports up).
  2. Obama is going to charge fees to banks to help curtail the deficit. Guess who’s pocket the hand will really be in – ours.
  3. India’s industrial production rose the most in 25 months.

DATA

Nothing market moving, IMHO.

  1. 7:30 = NFIB small business opinion.
  2. 8:30 = Trade balance
  3. 10:00 = IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism
  4. 17:00 = ABC Consumer Confidence

 

I hope that today is a profitable one.

Cheers.

Here is Mole’s post in case it is too difficult to go back and read it.

VIX Reversal Signal – Day One

Yes, I’m back – but my time is extremely limited right now – so without further ado I will present my case. Something very rare occurred today – an event that has not occurred for several months now:

Today represents step 1 in a technical pattern called a VIX reversal signal. To illustrate the pattern I have marked the sell signals in orange and the buy signals in green on the chart above. Since last summer we mainly saw VIX buy reversal signals – all of them concluded successfully. A VIX buy reversal is of course the inverse of a VIX sell reversal signal. The last time we got the former was on October 30th, at which time a certain analyst I won’t name here recommended to more or less ignore it as the market was supposed to continue downwards. I think this is one ignominious call he’ll have to live with as the ensuing bear squeeze wiped out a lot of his bearish followers.

For the noobs – here are the rules:

For a $VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events:

  1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA)
  2. A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal
  3. A higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.

Once you get those 3 events a major reversal usually occurs within the next week. The sell signals are far more accurate than the buy signals.

Yes, that last sentence should make any bear hopeful – but it’s been the other way around in the past few months and that’s the reason I only loaded up on a very moderate amount of index puts right before the closing bell. Of course technically speaking I should wait until the confirmation, which is at least two days away – assuming we get it that is. BTW – why index puts? Only because I didn’t have the time to parse through my overbought filter and pick specific symbols. Well, let’s see what happens tomorrow. A close back inside the 2.0 BB would lead me to increase my positions size.

Understandably many of you are nervous about shorting this market – and rightfully so I might add. You can only get your dick caught in the elevator doors that many times until you start remembering to zip up your pants after taking a leak. But I have a very fundamental rule when it comes to trading. If I encounter a time tested technical signal that indicates a market reversal is in the making then I have to take it, no matter what. The day my emotions or a directional bias prevents me from following a statistically proven technical trigger is when I must retire from trading.

For what it’s worth: It would be nice to see a down day for a change – this market is getting on my nerves. I suffer from a mental condition that prevents me from doing what everyone else is doing, especially when it comes to trading. In the past few months everyone seems to be doing the same thing over and over again – and it’s working for them. That’s not how it has worked during 99.9% of the stock market’s history.

I’ll leave you with that to chew on.

Mole (some of you might remember me)

P.S.: The Rammstein notification module has now been activated – have fun -)


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks GMAK, but…. MOLE ASKED YOU TO COPY HIS POST INSIDE YOURS (otherwise nobody sees it)

    Do so ASAP

    Meanwhile people do take a look at last post (mole's) and comment HERE

    Thanks

    p.s. Mole's post is a VIX BB20,2.0 reversal signal AND RAMSTEIN activated

  • Schwerepunkt

    While I disagree somewhat with your ideological bent, thanks for the post. For the record, LBJ's initiative to eliminate poverty was called the “Great Society.”

  • gmak

    Nag, nag, nag. You really need to get out more.

  • gmak

    You have absolutely NO idea what my ideological bent is. I'm just text in the ether.

    Thanks for the correction.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'm leaving, but Mole DID ask

  • Schwerepunkt

    I can discern quite a bit from your comments, but I'm not trying to start anything. Really. I don't want to start a long discussion. I just don't view government in the same negative light as you seemingly do. But again, I like your charts and market comments a lot.

    As for the market, we're getting close to your 1132.5 S2 line. The trade balance numbers might be bullish for the USD. I would expect imports ex-energy will be down. If so, that would probably push equities down if the correlation has any meaning whatsoever.

  • CorporalCarrot

    My spider senses are tingling chaps. I'm not saying this is “IT” but I see a huge amount of complacency out there. The final nail in the coffin of fear was the opening few days of this year. That was the last little thing that most longs were afraid of. A potential tax selling, sectoral re-allocation mix that could cause a selloff.

    But no, the year opened strongly, complacency is back to all time highs, bullish sentiment at the max. People have taken it for granted that the positive start to the year bodes extremely well (based on selective historical data picking) for the rest of the year, and the MSM is filled with articles of this nature. All bears (bar Daneric apparently) seem to have given in and accept higher prices as a given.

    What would be the most devastating, most surprising thing the market could do at this point?

  • Schwerepunkt

    yeah, everybody was talking about the January effect yesterday and it may turn out that way, but I suspect it won't be a straight line. should be some chop at least. but I don't see any cliff-diving either.

  • CorporalCarrot

    “but I don't see any cliff-diving either”

    Thats my point. Noone does.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Gmak; if this little green candle on ES marks a reversal, your post will be nearly right on the money about S2 1132.5. Off by .25 pts.

  • Schwerepunkt

    One of these days, when they pull the magical overnight support, people will wake up and ES will be down 20-pts, tick up a few points and then just accelerate down. But there's just no way to know when that is going to happen.

  • bobthehorse

    the thing is, the 'cliff-dive' is not the norm. To go down, equities need to see macro data heading down. if you get that with a sentiment high, you can get a big sell-off. otherwise, best you can hope for is a consolidation. To me, it is pointing to Feb – before then dips are to buy

  • Schwerepunkt

    Are you buying this dip? Or are you looking for the 1120s?

  • CorporalCarrot

    As I said earlier, I'm not saying its necessarily a cliff-dive. I have a feeling however that when this market turns, it will only be a month or two after it does that everyone realises it has put in a top. I'm still not entirely with you on the macro picture. I somewhat agree the macro picture is improving (or at least pointing in a less bad direction), but I think the rate of improvement is far less than what is priced into stocks.

    Then again, I'm not sure if anything is truly “priced” any more, and if its merely an interest rates or risk play.

  • weasel_whisperer

    Douala, in a comment at Trading to Win, indicates that McHugh picked up on the VIX signal Mole mentioned in the last post:

    http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/2010/01/doll

  • bobthehorse

    We are 30% long. From being small short couple of days ago. This is not an eyeballs out area as my intermediate-term view still looks for 920. But I think we should go to 1170 first.

  • shortcover

    interesting article on CNBC from around 4 am…Fed to replace Fed Funds Rate as indicator…

  • bobthehorse

    Wholesale Inventories last week (missed in the payrolls noise) showed a big 1.2% mom gain. Companies are telling me they have no inventory, and if input prices are rising as per Aloca comments, they will need to restock. That is going to lead to a GDP bulge in Q1. It will, in my view, prove to be a false high but I would not want to be short through earnings season while companies guide up revenue outlooks.

  • Gerbil_gold

    so glad to see the VIX post.
    I DID spot and comment with beauteous pic yesterday, cough cough. just didn't know the relevance.
    now, I wunder if the IEEE will hit 240 in correspondence. excuse me, ISEE Index.

  • CorporalCarrot

    I must admit that most of what you said I don't truly understand, and I don't fully appreciate the interactions you have referred to. I can only comment on what I see, which is that from an unemployment/debt default/foreclosures/deficits and other perspectives we are at a number of all time historical records, and while certain positions are improving slightly, they are not improving at the rate you would expect in a typical recession exit. The fact that so much recent GDP “growth” (in fact all) is purely due to government and not private economy, and that we have so many stocks now at dotcom type p/e ratios seems somewhat at odds with that position.

    But I am trying to learn the aspects of the bigger picture that can lead to the short term sweet spot where things such as p/e become temporarily irrelevant to direction so thanks for your comments.

    Just as a general point; I was a dotcom skeptic. I didn't buy the hype, so missed out on lots of profits, but neither did I suffer a single cent of losses when it collapsed in tears.

    And it frightens me to hear the same rhetoric now in the MSM and elsewhere that is reminiscent of the dotcom bubble.

    Things like people claiming the S&P is cheap by comparing OPERATING earnings with historical norms that are entirely quoted in terms of reported earnings. People saying valuation, cash flow, all the good traditional stuff doesn't matter. People quoting the S&P as fairly priced by working out p/e's excluding loss making companies. All that nonsense.

    I used to say to dotcom-ers…how can a share price possibly grow further? If it has a p/e of 100, then so many years future earnings are already priced in there is no theoretical room to grow. I got told about “new paradigms” and new economies and all that jazz.

    Of course we were both wrong in a way. The p/e got to 200 before it went tits up. And maybe thats where it is now. About to get more irrational, before it corrects.

    Because for most stocks I look at, if I do a fundamental analysis, most of them are either very richly valued, or pricing in so many years growth that may or may not materialise.

    Time to end this waffle 🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    1170? Only another 30-40 pts. That should happen in about 8 trading days. LOL.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Feds made a record profit on their “investments” last year. More than $46 billion. Maybe they're the ultimate hedge fund now . . .

  • Gerbil_gold

    Dude, you should see what they make UNDER the table.
    😉

  • Gerbil_gold

    Dude, you should see what they make UNDER the table.
    😉

  • bananaben

    The dot-com collapse was a total free market response. This market is very different because the PPT is operating 24hrs per day to prop everything up. As the market goes past 50 pts downside they kick into gear and start trying to ramp things up again. If it falls further they ramp harder. The funds come straight from the Fed which wants to create inflation and is doing so through the stock market as one of several avenues. It will take a massive high volume event to knock them out. Look what they just did this morning – seen this shit a million times now.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Looking like a good call on the long Bob. We should be positive shortly.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Nice avatar. Hey, I was wondering if I could bum a ciggie off of you.

  • raised_by_wolves

    $SPX/$VIX is back inside the Rodent Bands too.

    http://screencast.com/t/YjI1ZGM2OGQ

  • CorporalCarrot

    Why the divergence between SPX/DJIA?

  • texpresso

    totally agree with you about fundamental problems, but IMO that is only half the story. big difference, cloud computing is working, genuinely reducing computing costs, and companies selling it are making money; wireless data demand is increasing 30%/ QUARTER; data center and telcom networking thus MUST be upgraded. the chinese sm caps i am banking this year have PExs around 19x and expected growth around 30%, not overvalued. and, if i can paraphrase Bob, inventories are still too low

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    goodsensist? fedupist?…

    damn you're cynical realist, you and your habit of saying things as they are instead of wearing pink glasses and seeing unicorns and rainbows and butterflies (not the ones raised sees, that's a different story)

    You make people feel BAD, and then they don't want to be friends with you 😉

    ROTFLOL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, yes, nag, nag, nag.

    someone has to pay attention 😉

    BTW i did get out, permission to climb aboard captain?

  • Gerbil_gold

    ..to get to the other side.

    I'd like to a legit answer.
    my take is the DOW is really only 30 stocks cause its weighted, the S&P is 500?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    PPT is an old name, it meant plunge protection team, nowaday it's Push and Prop Team, they work mostly by pushing beyond resistences

  • Gerbil_gold
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ladies and verms, 1142 holding would be just dandy

  • gmak

    Line up here for a swift mental kick in the pills. 🙂

    ________________________________

  • Me_XMan

    Cloud computing = mainframe

  • Me_XMan

    Alcoa missed big and market is hanging tight…Wow.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    VIX gap and camp today so far

  • Gerbil_gold

    IMHO, the bears are going to stay asleep for a little while longer.
    This “reversal” if it is one, has certainly brought some doubt to the table.
    Bulls are waiting on this dip, or possible thinking of unwinding.

    comments?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I'd ask something different, when there is a fall and people sell, are they sold in the same time frame as when it's rising?

  • Gerbil_gold

    yes, glad you mentioned time frame.
    many many people have different time frames.
    minutely to monthly.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did you notice the author rehashed the article just a couple of days ago?

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16188.html

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    nothing going to surprise me. personally looking to keep 1/2 step behind and just follow along. basically light and mkt neutral here and will go back to long or end up short, as forces dictate.

    gun to my head, i'd guess the mkt is lower from here a week from today

  • Gerbil_gold

    no!
    “reduce reuse recycle.”

  • weasel_whisperer

    Ok, but be careful. The last time I gave cigarettes to a minor, I ended up in jail (documented in Cool Hand Luke).

  • Gerbil_gold

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuDDqU6n4o
    I feel beaten just like blue eyes.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'll be careful, though I have to admit I wasn't being careful on HOB. Yeah, I got my ass banned over there.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, andmarch 2007 was already feeling topish

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ooops, did you tell ana of the time you triped a cat on acid?

  • raised_by_wolves

    You couldn't have chosen a better clip to illustrate my situation.

  • raised_by_wolves

    “Never talk that way to me”

    Yes sir!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Actually, I replied with a “Yes sir!” after already being bad. She didn't see the humor in that, apparently.

  • gmak

    That's not ideological. I am agnostic about most things. I don't trust any entity or institution that has its hand in my wallet and is NOT accountable for its actions or spending. That's all.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm watching $TRAN like a hawk. My rule for the day, “no shorting unless it goes below the trend line,” has barely been met. Waiting for that yellow Gerbil Band to break before I do anything stupid though.

  • bubble jeopardy

    XLF filled its Oct. island reversal gap? Bullish or bearish?

  • raised_by_wolves

    I don't have anything bad to say about lovely Anna. I do have to say that I deserved to get banned for my outrageous behavior. I also have to say that I would do it over again. Yes, it was worth it! 🙂

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    after exchanges implying you had two she felt bad about having one….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gerbil band or ma52? the bands themselves are often refreshing pauses

  • Gerbil_gold

    IMHO, bearish.
    the rise from 14.40 to 15.40 was in 5 days. (fast doesn't last)
    there is a possible VIX reversal ongoing.
    the daily slow stochastic is toppy.
    *NIA
    😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, and poor volumes on drop can be a slight “glitch” that delays sales, have you ever felt that?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the bad cub is back…. mole was wise turning you into moderator, wolves don't shit their own lair

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hamster! Your words surprise me. Remember when you were threatening to ban me for airbrushing Anna's racing stripes? I think you would have died to defend her dignity. Look at you now! You're teasing her mercilessly! I thought that was only something I did.

  • Gerbil_gold

    no I haven't.
    yes, volume can speak volumes so to speak. 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    Oops, sorry. Not even the official daily Rodent Bands. The upper 52 BB on the 30 minute chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/NjNmMzE2OW

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Teasing her? no, i just mentioned that in the context of cut-off and redundant parts your “yes sir” could be taken under a bad light (your fault)

    And I do taunt people (love the french taunting in the holly grail)

    BTW, “I fart in your general direction”

    p.s. now seriously, spx:cpce's BB13,1.618 had an envelope inversion yesterday, this should be good for a bit of a drop (unless Ben, Paulson et al decide to boost this sucker)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Any bond experts here that can pontificate on the big 3-year auction today? People usually look at the 2,5 or 10 year. I would expect a decent auction as it is not very far out, but it may show some inflation fear. Santelli has mentioned it several times today. It may well move the market.

  • tradejane

    I have a buy signal for SKF but no sell signal for UYG… go figure.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Exactly! I had to shit out (your chosen image) or sweat off (my image) my inordinate amount of wolfish behavior elsewhere. Where to next? HOB held up pretty well, but I bet I could bring SOH down to its knees. 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then worry about 1472

  • bobthehorse

    I think it was a risk last week but the payrolls has brought yields back down and the supply risk is for another day now

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    raised, behave, I'll talk to anna and see if she takes you in if i drop you by at her door (but careful, strays are usualy neuttered before anything else)

    p.s. I'll just explain there was only your normal impudence and bravado on the “yes sir!”, no sexual undertones whatsoever

  • Gerbil_gold

    Feels good selling options nearly twice the price at open vs now.
    kinda like walking on alligators.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTT2a8m92hA
    (not recommended)

  • raised_by_wolves

    What I'm saying is that if Anna were to come on to ES and read your comment, she could misinterpret it as you amplifying what I said. The way you have it worded, it read like you were trying to out do my double “yes sir” comments. I'm the only one allowed on her bad side, got it, Hamster?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes – I checked the ISEE as well yesterday. Seeing it over 200is promising but I would have gone all in had we seen a 240+ in conjunction with a VIX sell signal. Sigh – one can dream… LOL 🙂

  • Schwerepunkt

    Then I would expect equities to rise after 1pm today if we get a decent auction.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – that is Fu-ny!!

  • bubble jeopardy

    On a daily, XLF looks like a 5 down and an abc correction since the Oct. high.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/N2JmZTVjZ

  • raised_by_wolves

    My normal imprudence and bravado may be too much for HOB though. [Reflecting] I always drove my teachers crazy, and I'm unemployable in most settings for the same reason; making fun of customers was my forte.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice to have you smiling sir!

    reminded gmak to add your post
    asked anna to take rbw back (he doesn't post less here because of that so …)

    are you still on your cubicle in vegas? how's the vue?

  • TransworldDepravity

    Ok, WTF did I miss?

    Oh, using my innate and incredible spider sense, I must extrapolate that it is you…that is/was/am echo beth?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See what I have been reduced to? LOL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    look, i respect anna as i respect everyone that posts here, I just mentioned what she might have thought, sometimes you're a pain but not often rude, and you do bring her some of the technical inovations from ES, she might have to slap you once in a while, but ban?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    try government

  • boldventure

    Every dip in this market of 3-5% has been bought since the MAR/09 lows.
    Will they buy again or will we have a significant correction of maybe 10%.
    With the FED rates at zero till prolly 2011 at this pace. Lots of FED cash (tax -payer) still floating around. This earnings qrt being compared to the previous year that was a disaster(blow out qrts coming). There is prolly an 85-90% chance they buy the dip.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I still have to help her set up the Rodent Bands. She didn't understand when we data dumped the numbers. I could walk her through it, screen shot by screen shot.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No, I'm back – CES is over. Gmak is either misinformed or hitting the sauce early.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Feeling a little like a bewildered Fight Club narrator, are we?

    “It's under control, sir.”

  • vision_invisible

    curious what was your product?

  • Tronacate

    Nice 2 bar break on the $TRAN 60 min

  • Gerbil_gold

    hammie, anyone says roxxy, ban them! ;-D

  • gmak

    It was a joke. As in (said with a let's get ready to rumble voice): Direct from Las Vegas…..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Mole, I just moderate, I don't post, so I have to nag those that have permission (but I'm sure gmak hadn't seen your request yet, he was working on his post, and i commented in a minute or so)

    I still haven't seen your opinion on [stock]:gold with the rodent bands, furthermore I think the spx:cpce is also very interesting with ma6 as predictive or confirming turning points. do take a look, there are some new things being discussed here.

  • Tronacate

    FAZ getiin on a roll

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW – just to be clear: Those VIX reversal signals are good for a one week trade at most. I'm not advocating that the market must reverse here on a long term basis. Of course however a VIX reversal nay be the end of the beginning in good old Churchill fashion.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ?!?!? setting up Bollingers is a step by step issue?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Where insulting customers/citizens is allowed? Hell yeah, that'd be perfect for me.

    I picked up MWN at the street corner, by the way.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yawn – this is supposed to be 'new'? How long have you been a reader here? Time for a spring cleaning in the evil den it seems.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hitting the sauce early… that would be dave, but he is MIA today (dave, just a joke, no offense meant, I love your posts on bio fuel)

    so CES is over, and did you get the contacts/partnerships you wanted for your product?

    Is there anyway to tune the distance at which it works? tunable layer distance?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yeah, Anna can't do that, but she can do this: “Gang it appears the trade to make is the credit spread in this market…you capture IV crush (on earnings on the closer strike) you capture theta, and if you get direction or just flat you will do well. :)”

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Man, I'm so glad to be out of that town – it's such a poignant place. BTW – local news in Las Vegas report on the bad economy ALL day – very different from the happy talk here in L.A.

  • Gerbil_gold

    XLF slipping to 15.00 area.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    since april, but first months were trying to grasp EWT, then understanding what was wrong with some of the things i used.

    But you use pure cpce, spx:cpce seem to have some aditional info. And the rodent bands I don't recall seeeing anything quite like them.

    But maybe I misunderstood

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    the reference is lost for me

  • Tronacate

    $TRAN had a lot of distribution on 1/11 on the first 60 min bar……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    seems anna gave you another chance… and you already blew it?

  • raised_by_wolves

    What? That's news to me.

  • TransworldDepravity

    You inglourious basterd!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    guess they had the same glitch in the matrix….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice moment for a decision onother down point might signal something

  • Gina20001

    Great post Mole!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I wish I were Gina too. Hamster can verify that I'm not.

  • Gina20001

    his rbw. Do you know why Anna just banned me?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Sorry, I don't play games here. Only on HOB.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole and Hamster, I blocked her. Unblock her if you want.

  • The Unknown Trader

    Wow, this new contributor Molecool really knows his stuff!

  • Tronacate

    IYR is breaking through some clusters of support……..alot of air once it passes 45.29

  • rosocecasita

    Long time no see Mole, Thank you for the AMAZING Vix update!

    Thank you Gmak for your keeping up with the ever amazing Broken Clock =)

  • Tronacate

    That IS funny

  • Gerbil_gold

    DOW, breaking 10,600 (at least for a few seconds)

    you be the judge.
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-5F7E_4B4CA59B.html

  • Tronacate

    RIMM had a fat accumulation bar on the 5 min……see if it can get past that support

  • The Unknown Trader

    Enjoy it, may be my last post here. 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'll miss you, whoever you are, Mr. Unknown Trader.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then let it be and get back to HOB i explained that your ip was not gina's and the ip doesn't seem a proxy

    you're unbanned

  • Tronacate

    What's up with this banning bs………is everybody thin-skinned around here?…….change it to GOP speculators…..gathering of pussies??…..c'mon

  • Gerbil_gold

    $VIX climbing…last 12 minutes.. (18.83)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, just a particular case where identities were created to troll

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    careful people 1131 is support line

  • Gerbil_gold

    thank u sir.

  • Tronacate

    IYR hitting support here……..let's see what happens

  • Tronacate

    IYR hitting support here……..let's see what happens

  • Tronacate

    Volume looks thin on IYR upmove here…….bet they sell off this sucker again…..

  • Tronacate

    $TRAN break the trendline I'm looking at????

  • Gerbil_gold

    if you throw a full stochastic (44,22,11) on the IYR hourly, it looks tempting for a rollover.

  • bobthehorse

    We have just got a little bit longer, now 45% long

  • Tronacate

    ty for the input

  • The Unknown Trader

    I said “may.” I was joking anyway. 🙂

  • Tronacate

    You need a bag over your head to be the “Unknown”…….

  • Zro

    S/he does have a blank face 🙂

  • bobthehorse

    Look – here is my reasoning. I honestly think this is another bear trap. First on fundamentals, Alcoa have spoofed the mkt before on earnings. The problem is they are early so everyone reads too much in to it. Why did they miss? They screwed up their hedging. Not exactly calling the top.

    China raising reserve requirement – red herring. Why? Most Chinese Banks have excess reserves with the PBOC so this has no practical impact. Merely confirms the signals of tightening they have been giving for the last week.

    Too many companies are making positive noises around revenues to ignore. Burberry, Tiffany, Continental, Maersk – just to name a few. I.e. cyclical companies who will benefit from a restocking cycle. It's happening whether we like it or not.

    I am looking for the mkt to see these revenues and extrapolate them forward. That will be the time to get short, not before.

    On technicals, most of the trades I have heard vol desks have put on are short ATM vol, long the wings. Goldmans have been pushing the short vol idea for a while now (it is their big trade of 2010)so whilst you might get a vol squeeze in the short-term, I think it will peter out quite quickly because of the long gamma position on the street.

    Finally, a lot of funds have missed the rally thus far because they were de-risking into year-end. European markets have just gone down on the year. They are being offered a second bite they could only have dreamt of a week ago. I think they'll take it.

  • The Unknown Trader

    You remember the Unknown Comic? 🙂

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    gmak, any indications from TD that we may get to around 1124 on ES? I have S3 at 1122.3 but stops may be set above that. I also have a 2 touch TL on 12/18 and 12/31 lows at about 1124

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Fastmoney head just said INTC options pricing in 7% volatility for the earnings thursday; up from 5.5% yesterday.
    …that's a big number for intel

  • Tronacate

    Hell yeah

  • Tronacate

    RIMM on a ski slope down here

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    interesting for nasdaq today we broke and retested… not yet for s&p

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    VIX up and INTC range expected as 7% for their eps;
    New market here?

  • bananaben

    Totally agree on the bear trap. I can tell they have this decline “under control” vs. the one this morning which they had to fight to get under control.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ben, that's the game, just hold enough to scare the bears, we must hold and expect a gap down tomorrow

  • Tronacate

    IYR testing 1/5 support

  • Tronacate

    IYR heavy dist on 60 mi9n

  • Schwerepunkt

    1.49% b to c 2.98.

  • Gerbil_gold

    whatever happens, the media like's to pin it on INTC.
    lazy bums.

  • shortcover

    raising stop on VXX to 30…

  • Gerbil_gold
  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    ES is testing major trendline support on both globex and THO
    i just covered shorts @1129
    done for the day unless we plunge through here
    btw, the channel is 25 ES pts tall

  • Gerbil_gold

    good call sir!

  • Gerbil_gold

    The new moon is 3 days out. explain yourself young man.
    😉

  • Gerbil_gold

    how bout that $VIX? 19.41
    I think step 2 is about complete in mole's checklist. yes sirrr.

  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    not only a new moon but a solar eclipse too
    this may or may not be a bear trap
    i just went scalp long @1128 on the now low tick
    6 ticks stop

    mercury retrograde ends friday
    saturn retrograde starts tmw
    merriman has good stats on these bringing in the bear reliably

  • centerline

    Would be killer to see a close above 21 tomorrow. That would get me to toe-dip into this septic tank.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I didn't see anyone else acknowledge my call – thanks! BTW, I was the first to make it – seeing it now on many blogs but remember who issued it right before the close yesterday 😉

    If you guys missed that you might want to subscribe to my twitter:

    https://twitter.com/evil_speculator

  • Gerbil_gold

    I'm burned so bad, (yes, hence my black avatar) – i'd have to wait for the backtest AND confirmation back down.
    come to think of it. I'd have to see Mole swear to Llloyd that this is P3, AND Hindy tell me the planets are aligned.
    😀

  • centerline

    I know the feeling. I use the term “toe-dip” because several other toes on that proverbial foot are already missing. LOL.

  • Tronacate

    Need the EURO to breakdown from here for another leg down

  • Tronacate

    nice distribution candle on RIMM on the 5 min

  • gmak

    The 1128.50 level is support from last week. I don't see anything that says one way or another except the trend is down. I think we will see some form of bearish flag at this level. But I don't see any TA to say that it is going up or down. TD Pressure is pushing into oversold territory – but it can stay down there a while. MACD is trying hard to curl upwards.

    I see a support line at SPX = 1131.90, but a short term ceiling at 1133.19 – where we are right now. SPX 5 min is in TD wave 3 of 5, so I would expect wave 4 to be put in and then more downside.

    I know that doesn't directly answer your question – but it's all I've got right now. Uncharted territory, so to speak….

  • raised_by_wolves

    Okay, I've finally decided to check on $SPX (I'd been following other symbols like $TRAN). What the hell is this candle wick down to 1047?

    http://screencast.com/t/NWFkN2M5

    Especially creepy since it coincides with Red Dragon Leo's “97 Point Drop?” post.

  • Gerbil_gold

    I refuse to kiss butt.
    Your sir are a pirate!!
    yes, ladies and gentlemen of the jury.
    let it be shown that gerbil spotted the $VIX first.
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-C55A_4B4B34A7.html
    and that P_Dawkins followed up with bollinger comments.
    pirate indeed, dam quick one!

    [keep up the great work!]

  • Schwerepunkt

    Rogue reading. I have no such candle on my chart.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Plenty good, thanks.
    TD is an area of study I'm interested in and on my list to learn about this quarter

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This is a public service announcement: Taking short term profits on my index puts. Might load up at the close again today – will let you know if I do.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you for confirming Schwerepunkt.

    Also, I have to admit that I had an ADHD moment there. I thought I was looking at a 30 minute instead of daily candle, which also had me thinking that Red Dragon Leo had called for the misprint ahead of time. I was like, “DAMN!” when it really only deserved, “Damn.”

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, guess 1131 held…

  • Tronacate

    FAZ accumulation coming in here it appears

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – seems like it's only you and I here now, SSH 🙂

    Well, we just keep banking coin – eventually someone is going to pay attention again.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Just you and the Hamster. The wolf isn't a person. But if he were, he'd have an acute sense of smell (as well as ADHD). I took my profits too when something smell fishy. I feel like I don't have things quite figured out and need delve deeper into the charts instead of babysitting a whimsical trade.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I will start logging into TOS when i see SPX has dropped 100 points.Until then, i'm going to continue to watch reruns of Operation Repo.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, you've got gmak, CD, gerbil, raised, carrot,schwere, centerline, hindy, jane, bob, ben, tron… i'll stop here for now 😉

  • Gerbil_gold

    he's got radar, vermin! scurry!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hamster, I know using Rodent Bands on a shorter time frame is uncertified, but, uh, take a look at $SPX:$GLD on the 30 minute:

    http://screencast.com/t/YTkwMzg5YzAt

    Looks like the mid-band is about to be tested.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    touchy cub 😉 get your smell right and ready to reload if they can't pump this up (read mole's comment till the end)

  • raised_by_wolves

    How about shorting gold instead of equities?

  • centerline

    I am just on the sidelines, same as last month. Watching. Lurking. Working on some market modeling for sh*ts and giggles.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm thinking about shorting gold if the ratio crosses the mid-band on the daily:

    http://screencast.com/t/MTA2NzEwZG

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's not uncertified, but too damn sensitive, when i do rodents on daily i just use the 13 almost as a line and the 104 for channeling (you can do it on google in real time but without choosing the second parameter) had plans to try the 208 and 416

  • derekste

    I'm here, too, just a bit downtrodden 😛

  • bubble jeopardy

    dzz looks to be making a higher low on daily

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    do you remember someone telling you to scale in long fro 1087-1085 and banking some coin at 1143 (with the weekend it went higher but it was the first turn point) so you could have shorted at market start today, as it crossed over. there is still a drop to 1050's missing IMHO

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Yes, incredibly – its true!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it already broke and retested the hamsters, forget the gerbil, short now with stop slightly above the hamsters MAs

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “when something smelled fishy.”

    I told you to take a shower today…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, vaguely, was it you? 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    Too bad I ignored your advice. That probably would have improved my awkward situation over at HOB.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey, i cleaned up the mess, now stop whining

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no, my evil twin….

  • raised_by_wolves

    Seriously, I need to get some strong drink (I've been sober for a week and the results are disappointing, let me tell you) to alleviate these some of these ADHD symptoms.

  • raised_by_wolves

    How was my vomit? Yeah, I saw you licking it up. No one has ever gone that out of the way to help me. Thanks Hammy!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sweet, have you cheked for diabetes?

    don't mention it, they need a RBW at HOB (hell, I'd walk you there myself)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey, it's ethanol, bio fuel, environment friendly

  • raised_by_wolves

    Is alcohol known to improve concentration, or does it just work that way with me?

  • TransworldDepravity

    <——— check my avie
    soak in a hot hot tub, roll a spliff or cig, leech a nice draw of real absinthe, relax, profit.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The problem is there is no Master Hamster over on HOB to keep me in line.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    alcohol unwinds stressed people, but if you have adhd try something better, get a prescription for ritalin and take one crushed with a mug of coffee (delete after reading)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gerbil, do you remember this comment?

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=13059#comment-2398

  • raised_by_wolves

    TD,

    A lighter, and an empty box of American Spirits is all I got. Actually, with those and a good imagination, I'm almost feel like I'm in a hot tube.

    Hey, would a normal person relish the fact that both his name was mentioned in the post for contributing a chart and he got banned from the comments section? Would accomplishing both feats on the same day impress anyone else besides myself?

  • raised_by_wolves

    You're living the dream 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    Dammit, I keep forgetting that what impresses Echo Beth may not impress Anna.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Doctor's had me on that shit. All types of stimulants and non-stimulants too like Strattera. None of them helped enough. The only one that worked for me was a drug I was testing to make some extra money. Unfortunately, that drug didn't work for others or was dangerous or something because it never made it to market.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Gmak, for Bloomberg, maybe you can just screen capture using jing or Snagit…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    double the dose and make sure it's crushed, use it only from time to time to get turbozen

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    flatering will get you nowhere;-)

    it's not a question of “in line” it's a question of “do you think it's funny?”

  • raised_by_wolves

    Unfortunately, I don't have easy access to prescription drugs at this point in my life. If I did, I'd try your crushing method. As I've probably told you before, staying up past midnight while drinking are the conditions necessary for my zen-like experiences. That's when I can hyper focus. I guess I'm just complaining because I wish I could hyper focus during the day. Sorry for any whining tone of voice.

  • TransworldDepravity

    I like Echo Beth's avatar. It's a good piece.

  • TransworldDepravity

    No I'm not, but one can daydream. Reflection and relaxation is paramount to a healthy cortex and cognitive well being good man.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I knew I should have put the wink face there instead of smiley.

  • TransworldDepravity

    Draw yourself a hot bath and I do like the American Spirits (is an ethically made cigarette possible?)

    That's quite the feat, I concur.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Precisely why I chose that picture. It's also from the Raised By Wolves photo book.

  • TransworldDepravity

    I had my suspicions on your alter ego which you solidified after seeing her/you picture. Good show. I think the hobbers need a sense of humor or a hot tub, a bit uptight.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you, friend. However, Flyboy doesn't want me over there, and I don't feel like fighting him. If he races motorcycles, he can probably kick my skinny ass. So, I'm going to exile myself for at least the rest of the week. Jack will probably miss my TA. I suspect that'll be all that's missed by most.

    Time to get any last trade on.

  • randomwalker

    Annotated candle chart of GLD looking bearish, for anyone interested:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZmU4NjIzN

  • TransworldDepravity

    Might just be an e-enhancing testoterone image. But, really besides the IP dodging, I enjoy the dark humor and trade ideas. Might just be cause I'm equally screwy in the head. hehe.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You should join our club. You and your friend. 😉

  • TransworldDepravity

    I call him Jack

  • raised_by_wolves

    I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey, you get to see my Prophet charts all the time, but I don't think I've shown you this Chart chart of GLD and SLV priced in $SPX.

    http://screencast.com/t/MTMzYTE1YTYt

    You can see why I was profitable last week going long SLV instead of GLD. More and more, I'm becoming a correlations type of guy.

  • TransworldDepravity

    Great thanks for sharing. I'm going to need to study it a bit more. But the general premise is they are inversely correlated to SPX? I'll look into it more tonight. Need to take a break and start the commute.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Often $SPX, GLD, and SLV rise together like they did last week. So, you wouldn't say they're inversely correlated (though they may be sometimes). The premise is that there will be a first, second, and third place finish during a given time period.

    $SPX was green last week; however, relative to SLV, it was red. Another way of saying that is, $SPX priced in dollars was green but priced in silver was red.

    Here, I'll show you the chart again, this time with annotations:

    http://screencast.com/t/MTc5OGVl

  • The Unknown Trader

    Wow, this new contributor Molecool really knows his stuff!

  • Tronacate

    IYR is breaking through some clusters of support……..alot of air once it passes 45.29

  • rosocecasita

    Long time no see Mole, Thank you for the AMAZING Vix update!

    Thank you Gmak for your keeping up with the ever amazing Broken Clock =)

  • Tronacate

    That IS funny

  • Gold_Gerb

    DOW, breaking 10,600 (at least for a few seconds)

    you be the judge.
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-5F7E_4B4CA59B.html

  • Tronacate

    RIMM had a fat accumulation bar on the 5 min……see if it can get past that support

  • The Unknown Trader

    Enjoy it, may be my last post here. 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'll miss you, whoever you are, Mr. Unknown Trader.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    then let it be and get back to the site that shall no longer be mentioned i explained that your ip was not gina's and the ip doesn't seem a proxy

    you're unbanned

  • Tronacate

    What's up with this banning bs………is everybody thin-skinned around here?…….change it to GOP speculators…..gathering of pussies??…..c'mon

  • Gold_Gerb

    $VIX climbing…last 12 minutes.. (18.83)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, just a particular case where identities were created to troll

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    careful people 1131 is support line

  • Gold_Gerb

    thank u sir.

  • Tronacate

    IYR hitting support here……..let's see what happens

  • Tronacate

    Volume looks thin on IYR upmove here…….bet they sell off this sucker again…..

  • Tronacate

    $TRAN break the trendline I'm looking at????

  • Gold_Gerb

    if you throw a full stochastic (44,22,11) on the IYR hourly, it looks tempting for a rollover.

  • bobthehorse

    We have just got a little bit longer, now 45% long

  • Tronacate

    ty for the input

  • The Unknown Trader

    I said “may.” I was joking anyway. 🙂

  • Tronacate

    You need a bag over your head to be the “Unknown”…….

  • Zro

    S/he does have a blank face 🙂

  • bobthehorse

    Look – here is my reasoning. I honestly think this is another bear trap. First on fundamentals, Alcoa have spoofed the mkt before on earnings. The problem is they are early so everyone reads too much in to it. Why did they miss? They screwed up their hedging. Not exactly calling the top.

    China raising reserve requirement – red herring. Why? Most Chinese Banks have excess reserves with the PBOC so this has no practical impact. Merely confirms the signals of tightening they have been giving for the last week.

    Too many companies are making positive noises around revenues to ignore. Burberry, Tiffany, Continental, Maersk – just to name a few. I.e. cyclical companies who will benefit from a restocking cycle. It's happening whether we like it or not.

    I am looking for the mkt to see these revenues and extrapolate them forward. That will be the time to get short, not before.

    On technicals, most of the trades I have heard vol desks have put on are short ATM vol, long the wings. Goldmans have been pushing the short vol idea for a while now (it is their big trade of 2010)so whilst you might get a vol squeeze in the short-term, I think it will peter out quite quickly because of the long gamma position on the street.

    Finally, a lot of funds have missed the rally thus far because they were de-risking into year-end. European markets have just gone down on the year. They are being offered a second bite they could only have dreamt of a week ago. I think they'll take it.

  • The Unknown Trader

    You remember the Unknown Comic? 🙂

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    gmak, any indications from TD that we may get to around 1124 on ES? I have S3 at 1122.3 but stops may be set above that. I also have a 2 touch TL on 12/18 and 12/31 lows at about 1124

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Fastmoney head just said INTC options pricing in 7% volatility for the earnings thursday; up from 5.5% yesterday.
    …that's a big number for intel

  • Tronacate

    Hell yeah

  • Tronacate

    RIMM on a ski slope down here

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    interesting for nasdaq today we broke and retested… not yet for s&p

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    VIX up and INTC range expected as 7% for their eps;
    New market here?

  • bananaben

    Totally agree on the bear trap. I can tell they have this decline “under control” vs. the one this morning which they had to fight to get under control.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ben, that's the game, just hold enough to scare the bears, we must hold and expect a gap down tomorrow

  • Tronacate

    IYR testing 1/5 support

  • Tronacate

    IYR heavy dist on 60 mi9n

  • Schwerepunkt

    1.49% b to c 2.98.

  • Gold_Gerb

    whatever happens, the media like's to pin it on INTC.
    lazy bums.

  • shortcover

    raising stop on VXX to 30…

  • Gold_Gerb
  • http://hindyomen.tumblr.com/ hindyomen

    ES is testing major trendline support on both globex and THO
    i just covered shorts @1129
    done for the day unless we plunge through here
    btw, the channel is 25 ES pts tall

  • Gold_Gerb

    good call sir!

  • Gold_Gerb

    The new moon is 3 days out. explain yourself young man.
    😉

  • Gold_Gerb

    how bout that $VIX? 19.41
    I think step 2 is about complete in mole's checklist. yes sirrr.

  • http://hindyomen.tumblr.com/ hindyomen

    not only a new moon but a solar eclipse too
    this may or may not be a bear trap
    i just went scalp long @1128 on the now low tick
    6 ticks stop

    mercury retrograde ends friday
    saturn retrograde starts tmw
    merriman has good stats on these bringing in the bear reliably

  • centerline

    Would be killer to see a close above 21 tomorrow. That would get me to toe-dip into this septic tank.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, I didn't see anyone else acknowledge my call – thanks! BTW, I was the first to make it – seeing it now on many blogs but remember who issued it right before the close yesterday 😉

    If you guys missed that you might want to subscribe to my twitter:

    https://twitter.com/evil_speculator

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm burned so bad, (yes, hence my black avatar) – i'd have to wait for the backtest AND confirmation back down.
    come to think of it. I'd have to see Mole swear to Llloyd that this is P3, AND Hindy tell me the planets are aligned.
    😀

  • centerline

    I know the feeling. I use the term “toe-dip” because several other toes on that proverbial foot are already missing. LOL.

  • Tronacate

    Need the EURO to breakdown from here for another leg down

  • Tronacate

    nice distribution candle on RIMM on the 5 min

  • gmak

    The 1128.50 level is support from last week. I don't see anything that says one way or another except the trend is down. I think we will see some form of bearish flag at this level. But I don't see any TA to say that it is going up or down. TD Pressure is pushing into oversold territory – but it can stay down there a while. MACD is trying hard to curl upwards.

    I see a support line at SPX = 1131.90, but a short term ceiling at 1133.19 – where we are right now. SPX 5 min is in TD wave 3 of 5, so I would expect wave 4 to be put in and then more downside.

    I know that doesn't directly answer your question – but it's all I've got right now. Uncharted territory, so to speak….

  • raised_by_wolves

    Okay, I've finally decided to check on $SPX (I'd been following other symbols like $TRAN). What the hell is this candle wick down to 1047?

    http://screencast.com/t/NWFkN2M5

    Especially creepy since it coincides with Red Dragon Leo's “97 Point Drop?” post.

  • Gold_Gerb

    I refuse to kiss butt.
    Your sir are a pirate!!
    yes, ladies and gentlemen of the jury.
    let it be shown that gerbil spotted the $VIX first.
    http://www.uploadgeek.com/share-C55A_4B4B34A7.html
    and that P_Dawkins followed up with bollinger comments.
    pirate indeed, dam quick one!

    [keep up the great work!]

  • Schwerepunkt

    Rogue reading. I have no such candle on my chart.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Plenty good, thanks.
    TD is an area of study I'm interested in and on my list to learn about this quarter

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This is a public service announcement: Taking short term profits on my index puts. Might load up at the close again today – will let you know if I do.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you for confirming Schwerepunkt.

    Also, I have to admit that I had an ADHD moment there. I thought I was looking at a 30 minute instead of daily candle, which also had me thinking that Red Dragon Leo had called for the misprint ahead of time. I was like, “DAMN!” when it really only deserved, “Damn.”

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thanks, guess 1131 held…

  • Tronacate

    FAZ accumulation coming in here it appears

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – seems like it's only you and I here now, SSH 🙂

    Well, we just keep banking coin – eventually someone is going to pay attention again.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Just you and the Hamster. The wolf isn't a person. But if he were, he'd have an acute sense of smell (as well as ADHD). I took my profits too when something smelled fishy. I feel like I don't have things quite figured out and need delve deeper into the charts instead of babysitting a whimsical trade.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I will start logging into TOS when i see SPX has dropped 100 points.Until then, i'm going to continue to watch reruns of Operation Repo.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, you've got gmak, CD, gerbil, raised, carrot,schwere, centerline, hindy, jane, bob, ben, tron… i'll stop here for now 😉

  • Gold_Gerb

    he's got radar, vermin! scurry!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hamster, I know using Rodent Bands on a shorter time frame is uncertified, but, uh, take a look at $SPX:$GLD on the 30 minute:

    http://screencast.com/t/YTkwMzg5YzAt

    Looks like the mid-band is about to be tested.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    touchy cub 😉 get your smell right and ready to reload if they can't pump this up (read mole's comment till the end)

  • raised_by_wolves

    How about shorting gold instead of equities?

  • centerline

    I am just on the sidelines, same as last month. Watching. Lurking. Working on some market modeling for sh*ts and giggles.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm thinking about shorting gold if the ratio crosses the mid-band on the daily:

    http://screencast.com/t/MTA2NzEwZG

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it's not uncertified, but too damn sensitive, when i do rodents on daily i just use the 13 almost as a line and the 104 for channeling (you can do it on google in real time but without choosing the second parameter) had plans to try the 208 and 416

  • derekste

    I'm here, too, just a bit downtrodden 😛

  • bubble jeopardy

    dzz looks to be making a higher low on daily

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    do you remember someone telling you to scale in long fro 1087-1085 and banking some coin at 1143 (with the weekend it went higher but it was the first turn point) so you could have shorted at market start today, as it crossed over. there is still a drop to 1050's missing IMHO

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Yes, incredibly – its true!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it already broke and retested the hamsters, forget the gerbil, short now with stop slightly above the hamsters MAs

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “when something smelled fishy.”

    I told you to take a shower today…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, vaguely, was it you? 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    Too bad I ignored your advice. That probably would have improved my awkward situation over at HOB.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey, i cleaned up the mess, now stop whining

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    no, my evil twin….

  • raised_by_wolves

    Seriously, I need to get some strong drink (I've been sober for a week and the results are disappointing, let me tell you) to alleviate these some of these ADHD symptoms.

  • raised_by_wolves

    How was my vomit? Yeah, I saw you licking it up. No one has ever gone that far out of the way to help me. Thanks Hammy!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    sweet, have you cheked for diabetes?

    don't mention it, they need a RBW at HOB (hell, I'd walk you there myself)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey, it's ethanol, bio fuel, environment friendly

  • raised_by_wolves

    Is alcohol known to improve concentration, or does it just work that way with me?

  • TransworldDepravity

    <——— check my avie
    soak in a hot hot tub, roll a spliff or cig, leech a nice draw of real absinthe, relax, profit.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The problem is there is no Master Hamster over on HOB to keep me in line.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gerbil, do you remember this comment?

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=13059#comment-2398

  • raised_by_wolves

    TD,

    A lighter, and an empty box of American Spirits is all I got. Actually, with those and a good imagination, I almost feel like I'm in a hot tube.

    Hey, would a normal person relish the fact that both his name was mentioned in the post for contributing a chart and he got banned from the comments section? Would accomplishing both feats on the same day impress anyone else besides myself?

  • raised_by_wolves

    You're living the dream 🙂

  • raised_by_wolves

    Dammit, I keep forgetting that what impresses Echo Beth may not impress Anna.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Gmak, for Bloomberg, maybe you can just screen capture using jing or Snagit…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    flatering will get you nowhere;-)

    it's not a question of “in line” it's a question of “do you think it's funny?”

  • TransworldDepravity

    I like Echo Beth's avatar. It's a good piece.

  • TransworldDepravity

    No I'm not, but one can daydream. Reflection and relaxation is paramount to a healthy cortex and cognitive well being good man.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I knew I should have put the wink face there instead of smiley.

  • TransworldDepravity

    Draw yourself a hot bath and I do like the American Spirits (is an ethically made cigarette possible?)

    That's quite the feat, I concur.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Precisely why I chose that picture. It's also from the Raised By Wolves photo book.

  • TransworldDepravity

    I had my suspicions on your alter ego which you solidified after seeing her/you picture. Good show. I think the hobbers need a sense of humor or a hot tub, a bit uptight.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you, friend. However, Flyboy doesn't want me over there, and I don't feel like fighting him. If he races motorcycles, he can probably kick my skinny ass. So, I'm going to exile myself for at least the rest of the week. Jack will probably miss my TA. I suspect that'll be all that's missed by most.

    Time to get any last trade on.

  • randomwalker

    Annotated candle chart of GLD looking bearish, for anyone interested:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/ZmU4NjIzN

  • TransworldDepravity

    Might just be an e-enhancing testoterone image. But, really besides the IP dodging, I enjoy the dark humor and trade ideas. Might just be cause I'm equally screwy in the head. hehe.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You should join our club. You and your friend. 😉

  • TransworldDepravity

    I call him Jack

  • raised_by_wolves

    And I always say I am Jack's complete lack of surprise.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hey, you get to see my Prophet charts all the time, but I don't think I've shown you this Chart chart of GLD and SLV priced in $SPX.

    http://screencast.com/t/MTMzYTE1YTYt

    You can see why I was profitable last week going long SLV instead of GLD. More and more, I'm becoming a correlations type of guy.

  • TransworldDepravity

    Great thanks for sharing. I'm going to need to study it a bit more. But the general premise is they are inversely correlated to SPX? I'll look into it more tonight. Need to take a break and start the commute.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Often $SPX, GLD, and SLV rise together like they did last week. So, you wouldn't say they're inversely correlated (though they may be sometimes). The premise is that there will be a first, second, and third place finish during a given time period.

    $SPX was green last week; however, relative to SLV, it was red. Another way of saying that is, $SPX priced in dollars was green but priced in silver was red.

    Here, I'll show you the chart again, this time with annotations:

    http://screencast.com/t/MTc5OGVl