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Living Inside a Broken Clock
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Living Inside a Broken Clock

by The MoleDecember 9, 2009

by gmak

I’m watching the beginning of a nasty winter storm and thinking that somwhere Al Gore must be stridently speaking about Global Warming. He acts as if the ants can determine what gets served for lunch in the school cafeteria  The Earth has a 50,000 year wobble in its spin and the magnetic poles move 90 degrees or more every 500,000 years.  Regulate that you schmuck.

Quick! Tell me what the weather will be in 2 weeks! Thought so. That’s why I don’t believe it when you tell me the weather in 20 years. You’re the government weather control and you’re here to help.  If weather patterns are changing systemically, shouldn’t we, the human population, be working on plans to deal with the longer term effects instead of bickering over the cause?

Tiny Tim is said to be looking for an extension to the $700 bb TARP until October 2010. How dare Congress try to reduce the deficit with that money. There are still bankstas without mansions in the Hamptons.  china is starting to show price inflation in powr and food. No surprise on food when the Gobi Desert eats 4,000 sq km of arable land every year (the number may be off – anyone have a source, I lost mine from 2003). We are starting to see PIK notes – payment in kind – where interest paid by borrowing more. Truly the ultimate paper gain. Greece says for the second time that there is ABSOLUTELY NO RISK of default. Welcome to the broken clock.

EQUITY

The worm is turning, but slowly. The last bar in the daily chart came so close to touching the green dashed line. Admittedly, it’s drawn with crayons and eyeballs so is not precise. Then again, I’d rather be more or less correct than precisely wrong. If you want to play long on a bounce, gt in and set the stop below that line, elow the lowst low in that string. That would be below SPX = 1083.74  for a stop.  That’s 8 points from where we are right now. Quite a distance before finding out you might be wrong. The red dashed line is where TD thinks buyers would come in. SPX, in their eyes, needs to get below that level decisively (1046.50) for the trend down to continue. You can see that TD Pressure at the bottom chart is going into OVERSOLD territory. I like the greater volume on a down day, but I know that a short term pop could be coming.

Asia was red, but Europe turned green. It was no doubt inspired by the data that came out including German Trade balance and CPI MoM which were better than expected. Never mind the nasty French and UK Trade Balances – this is a selective picking market.

The coin has flipped again today and fianncials and industrials are laggards to the other sectors in the DAX. You can see in the price chart that DAX failed to get below the lows of Nov 30 at this time and is putting in an intra-day higher high. It’s hard to take the markets seriously when sectoral rotation occurs on a daily basis. This is a trading market – nothing more, nothing less.

ES has been stuck in a moderately wide range with a move up this AM that has failed to clear the high from yesterday (Noon EST).

Pivots of note:

  • R2: 1115 – Need quite a bid to get back here in the next day or so
  • R1: 1102.50 = Where the market is eyeing right now – just looking for an excsue after 2 red days in a row.
  • Neutral: 1095 = Current battle line, acting as resistance but ES is getting a leg up over it.
  • S1: 1082.75 =  This would take the markets solidly below the SPX green dashed line and set them up for a re-test of that line in the sand.
  • S2: 1075.50 =  Interesting, but still not below the low from Nov 9 – which is a psychological level IMHO.

FX

What can I say? The USD is weaker today. The CAD, JPY, EUR, and GBP are all stronger – so it may be some form of consolidation. GOLD is up and so is Oil. This suggests to me that FX markets might be nerous about US Treasury plans for spending – and how the FED will monetize that debt.

DXY has found support at the last high – the white line it just bounced off of. I’ve drawn the next level above that needs to be scaled – probably jives well with Mole’s DXY gap chart and the probability distributions from that chart in his post.

NEWS

DATA

Not much today/ More interesting tomorrow – watch out for the setup today into the close.

The storm is intensifying, and the metaphor as well.  I don’t know if SPX will go down to the green line in the sand or not – but the odds favour a bounce of some kind before the end of the week. Stay nimble, keep those stops tight. Remember that there is about $230 bb in Treasury offerrings coming between today and the 23rd of December, and a lot of it at the tail end is in the belly (3 – 7 year).

What’s missing above is $118 bb in 2, 5, and 7 year nots on December 23rd. I couldn’t control how the screen copied. Watch the 10 year over the next 2 weeks to see how the market is feeling about this.

Cheers.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hamsters nag till they thank you for a post

    thanks

  • gmak

    EUR is ramping. Might have something to do with the UK budget and taxes. There is a rumour that BIS is buying above 1.4730 and that this has inspired a bid under the market – seems suspicious to me.

  • gmak

    If you look at the ES chart in my post, you can see a horizontal blue line labelled 1103.53. This is the level that TD thought ES would ramp to on it's current sequential wave 3 up. Short term, the TA looks bullish but the momentum isn't coming in, yet.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I presume by BIS you mean the bank for international settlements, What interest would BIS have in bidding up the Euro?

  • gmak

    They need it as part of international settlements? I don't think it is an interest in “bidding up” or “selling down”. I think it is a need for that particular currency as part of their function…….

  • insite

    anyone know how to scroll up or down in a TOS chart? i can adjust the axis, but can't figure out how to scroll to where the data is. periodically, a bad tick will f-up my scale. thx.

  • Gerbil_gold

    TOS 3K minimum? dang i'm jealous.
    I'll stick with my ruler & crayons.

  • insite

    nah; i just use their free papermoney build for charts & data. i execute trades w/ scottrade (for now). i don't really buy/sell options yet, so scottrade has been fine. i'm using TOS to learn how to do that. once i'm in the options game w/ real $$$, i'll have to move to a different platform. scottrade leaves a lot to be deisred in that aspect.

  • standard_and_poor

    Currently 5% short(inverse etf).
    Here's Gore's theme song (he means well):
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUokMbJC3P8

  • Gerbil_gold

    thataboy. now yer thinkin.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hmmm. I wonder if it is related in any way to the Greek debt bomb? Or the Irish, or the Italian or the . . .

  • standard_and_poor

    Hey mate whose that in your avatar?

  • Gerbil_gold

    i missed the GLD train, dam lowball order, don't always get filled.
    lower today??

  • TraderGhost

    I agree that SPX is due for a bounce before the end of the week and that could occur today, though the futures appear to be selling somewhat.

    Check out Tony's EW analysis and the numbers to watch. If we do bounce higher, I think it would be a great opportunity to go short…or shorter.

    http://tonysmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/

  • CorporalCarrot

    Bob

    Just in case this got missed in the post change, could you comment on this;

    Bob, I appreciate this exact point and will be watching like a hawk next year. All my long positions “unwind” in march and I will need to decide whether to be net long or short the market.

    A couple of things I hope you could elaborate on.

    Firstly, not just the “relative” performance here but absolute performance. There was a chap on bloomberg the other night making the very point you are making. The interesting thing to me however, was that he was quoting the SPX p/e EXCLUDING LOSS MAKING COMPANIES, as a basis for the index being relatively cheap. Its therefore an easily understood theory that should those companies grow the top, with costs pared to the bone there should be abnormal outperformance at the bottom line.

    However, what happens to the index p/e if some of those loss makers trickle into breakeven or modest profitability. Will they will drag down his comparison in a bad way??

    Secondly, just to point out that this year, SPX earnings are still down some 20-30% on prior (which was already a bad year) and even more down on 2007. So while they have been trouncing estimates, we are still a long way from achieving the earnings levels that accompanied the absolute highs, so presumably the gap is the yield curve/currency play?

    And then, this all assumes theres no final day of reckoning for the enormous state borrowing taking place. At some point, stimulous withdrawal or tax raising is going to have to come into play creating a negative feedback loop?

  • ultra

    Thanks, G. First couple of paras are a little incendiary… are you by any chance attempting to get the political chat going again?? 😉

    Possible EW count for EURUSD – http://screencast.com/t/NmRmODE5Mm

  • Gerbil_gold

    woohoo! 500 comments here we come! 😉

  • gmak

    Nah. Just pointing out how broken the clock actually is. I do this every day. Today, I was inspired by the winter storm.

  • gmak

    FWIW, ES did not follow EUR up on the 8 AM ramp.

  • Gerbil_gold

    yeah, it blew thru here early this week! literally! faster than Tiger @ 2am.

  • ultra

    b'dum TISH

    personally, I blame the Canadians and their tar sands hehehe

  • gmak

    DXY seems to be holding at 75.88 (the middle horizontal white line). if it gets below 75.77, then I would suggest that the trend is down for the next leg

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes, I noticed that too. but it's following it now a little to the upside. I have EUR consolidating above the woodies pivot at 1.474 and trying to gain R1 at 1.4799.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gerbil. as i mentioned in another answer to you, i would have loaded gld 113 but probably unloaded on quick coin and would NOT reload on another 113 touch. just on 103.

    my two grams

  • standard_and_poor

    ;

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I already mentioned that I'm a lukewarmer on that, 0.1-0-2k from human action, all rest looks like solar cycle harmonics

    let's check at CA or wuwt if there are any news on the sCRU tape letters 😉

  • ultra

    Great post at WUWT yesterday that merits a read, whatever your stance

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoki

  • Gerbil_gold

    lower BB(50,0.618) is @ 103.54 – thanks for yer view.

  • gmak

    My pivots are as follows:
    R2: 1.4937
    R1: 1.4820 = support over and over from the beginning of november – now looks like overhead resistance
    Neutral: 1.4751 = whre EUR is moving back and forth
    S1: 1.4634
    S2: 1.4565

    This is on a 30 minute chart – but pivots are supposed to be the same across different time steps, no?

    ________________________________

  • Chedly

    Well, it is related to the PIGS of Europe : Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain.
    These countries of the Euro zone could default on their “national” debt any day. The question is then how the European Union (i.e. the Euro central bank and the other healthy European countries) will react -or not- to bail them out.

    Financially, these are the potential Dubai's of Europe.

  • gmak

    In case you didn't see it, here is how you use the construction of “pyramids” to boost GDP a la China example.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk&feat

  • Gerbil_gold

    Dubai's of Tiger..(chuckle)

  • CorporalCarrot

    Holy crap batman!!!! What just happened EURUSD there!!!!!!! Unbelievable outside reversal candles in the 10 minute!

    I thought when Goldman came out with their prediction of no rate rises till 2012 that we would be back to 1.48!!!!!

  • gmak

    Another little observation: DXY is having a hard time getting back above the pivot at 76.043 (you can see the pivots on my DXY chart in the post above).

  • bobthehorse

    spain revised to negative outlook byb S&P

  • CorporalCarrot

    Bob any comments on my previous post?

  • gmak

    The ramp that started at just before 8 AM didn't hold and EUR traced out a lovely “M” pattern – and now appears to be resuming the downward trend (on a 3 min chart) that was so rudely interrupted.

    TD has a support level at 1.4711 – IF we move decisively below this then the next “low” is 1.4693, then 1.4668 – on the way down to the pivot at 1.4634 (if we were to move there). EUR still looks to be in an upward trend channel until 1.4693 gets decisively broken.

  • CorporalCarrot

    14:08 09Dec09 RTRS-S&P SAYS SPAIN FACES DEEPER, LONGER DETERIORATION IN PUBLIC FINANCES THAN EXPECTED
    14:09 09Dec09 RTRS-S&P SAYS SPAIN FACES MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ECONOMIC WEAKNESS THAN PEERS
    14:09 09Dec09 RTRS-S&P SAYS CUTTING SPAIN'S IMBALANCES REQUIRES STRONG ACTION WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALISED YET
    14:10 09Dec09 RTRS-S&P SAYS SPANISH PUBLIC DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO TO HIT 67 PCT IN 2010
    14:11 09Dec09 RTRS-S&P SAYS NEGATIVE OUTLOOK REFLECTS RISK OF DOWNGRADE IN NEXT TWO YEARS
    14:12 09Dec09 RTRS-S&P SAYS SPAIN FACES MORE PERSISTANT DEFLATIONARY PRESSURES THAN ELSEWHERE IN EUROZONE

  • ultra

    So you liking the cut in booze taxes in the budget today? Would seem you guys have a sensible approach to economic turmoil..

  • Schwerepunkt

    Yes, pivots remain the same. Woody uses a slightly different calculation though. So, that is why mine are different. Man, went upstairs for a few minutes and came back to see everything fell apart! things weakened BEFORE the S&P ratings note on Spain, but accelerated once that was in the public domain. Never fails that some people know early about these announcements. Again, I ask –and not for the last time — where the fuck is the SEC?

  • CorporalCarrot

    We are only doing it because of Northern Ireland. They reckon we are losing half a billion a year in Excise/VAT by cross border shopping. I mean, an hour drive from Dublin you can save 50% on your shopping.

    And don't worry, what they giveth with one hand…….

  • Duuuuuude

    Thanks gmak!

  • texpresso

    asian markets quite lower than futures, euro markets down but higher than futures a little, NQ AH basically flat, PM up 0.33, all the PM stocks i looked at had very low volume

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    at least use 52, 0.618 (=4X13) 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    already seen that one 😉

    mann-made warming

  • texpresso

    greece problem is 2011-13, only current to the extent that they need to start working on it

  • texpresso

    spain will deteriorate relative to its peers, but no credit rating change, S&P just now

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    opening the morning brown envelopes to see how blind they feel?

  • texpresso

    bid/asks are above close on my china sm cap longs, they are going to open green

  • clutchshorter

    Fear is coming back into the markets. You can almost feel it especially with the latest problems overseas – Greece, Dubai, Spain, etc.. This is starting to creep up slowly but surely.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thought Italy would be in far worse condition…

    p.s.did'nt know the acronym, will try and get a stainless steel pig tag

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    thought Italy would be in far worse condition…

    p.s.did'nt know the acronym, will try and get a stainless steel pig tag

  • Autopsias

    We're getting a bit anxious with all this default thing IMHO…

    First thing, PIGS stand for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, not Ireland. Second indeed defaulting could happen but it's not like anyday… Thirdly, thinking that all those countries are in the same situation is just too simplistic for my taste…

    Saying that the PIGS have unhealthy economies and all the other Eurozone members are healthy is more than a stretch! 😉

  • Schwerepunkt

    Another NY Fed reverse repo test today. closes at 0940h. That is number 3. Do they always test things like this? Or are they messaging?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hi autopsias, thenks for the correction (I had mentioned that Italy seemed way worse) and of course the UK is making huge efforts to become the next iceland (IMHO)

  • CorporalCarrot

    The PIGS are often referred to as PIIGS and while you are correct that they are not the only basket cases in Europe, they are countries that suffered the worst property bubbles, and have the least developed and most imbalanced economies within the eurozone.

  • tradejane

    DAX lost the all-important 5640 and first support at 5628. It's now officially in a downtrend again. Next support seen at 5568. Banks are down the most.

  • bobthehorse

    sorry, got swamped there for a few mins. As Mervyn King said, 'it's the level stupid'. although earnings growth this year looks great, the reality is that the level of output is still miles below peak. Frankly, the bounce we have had so far has been very low and only really looks good because of the base effect. If we get a actual true recovery, i.e. not just a mathematical one the growth rate is going to be truly spectacular for some companies. Just look at housing starts in the US – they could double and still miles below what used to be 'normal'. If that happens, what do you think will happen to the eps estimates for companies that supply these materials? They will triple.

  • texpresso

    comm sm caps finally following CSCO down, Japan and Euro bad news finally spooking? TZA and EDZ are my play for the day

  • thunda72

    QQQQ is really testing the 43.37 resistance. Next stop 42.90. You can do it!

  • Schwerepunkt

    wholesale inventories at 10am. Not deemed an important release, but in t his environment, a bad number could get the ball rolling downhill. Expectation is for -.5%.

  • gmak

    EUR still lhasn't put in a local lower low. I would be careful and watch out for the bounce on SPX.

  • texpresso

    bloomberg reporting corn harvest is threatened by nasty weather in the south

  • texpresso

    add, not only did we build a minimum of 1.4 too many houses, but we ran off several million (5? more?) illegal aliens at the same time. so, house building may look ok b/c of places like austin TX but it is going to be depressed like never before

  • vision_invisible

    for the best look at Agriculture and the market look here http://www.marketskeptics.com/

    he's been talking about the crop problems and short inventories for a while

    if you find any good trades let me know

  • Schwerepunkt

    Last week, we got a dump on the oil inventory numbers as oil dropped and the dollar rose. This week's numbers come out at 1030h.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    careful now, don't like this bounce…

  • texpresso

    wow look at the supposrt CSCO got

  • texpresso

    still, looks like it is still trending down

  • Schwerepunkt

    DATA SNAP: US Wholesale Inventories Rise In Oct
    Last update: 12/9/2009 10:00:00 AM
    ==========================================================
    Wholesalers' Report ! !
    Oct Sep ! Inventories: !
    Inventories: +0.3% -0.8%r ! Consensus: -0.6% !
    Sales: +1.2% +1.3%r ! Actual: +0.3% !
    ==========================================================

  • CorporalCarrot

    Ok I get that, but you can't talk about EPS in isolation. Its eps relative to the share price. Theres something in what you are saying that implies a goldilocks scenario; we somehow went through all this turmoil, built up all these massive deficits, wrote off all that equity etc etc and within the space of a year or two will be back at all time highs with no consequences of the corrective action. I hear your argument, but something tells me it won't be that easy.

  • texpresso

    NEW small business create 90% of New jobs, and those bizzes are most of the economy; as long as small bizzes are not being created, there will be no recovery

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    anyone noticed it's the 3rd day with gold at 1145 at 10:00 ?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Wholesale inventories unexpectedly rose. market likes it, but what if it is signaling weaker than expected demand and a worsening of the overcapacity problem? You never know how news will be interpreted. I suppose, a change in the inventory trend from shrinking to growing is seen as a sign of a growing economy. This assumes companies know what they are doing . . .

  • raised_by_wolves

    Could the US Dollar Index have topped at 76.31, which Mole had identified for us as having a 46% odds?

    http://screencast.com/t/YTEzNzdiY

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^true

  • Tronacate

    Looks like bounces are getting sold…..come on vix….go through the roof

  • raised_by_wolves

    I think I was sleeping in yesterday and the day before. I'll say it for you—”lazy cub.”

  • marcopolo101520

    ADM

  • Tronacate

    MTN not looking too healthy again today

  • Schwerepunkt

    Love your new avatar/profile pic.

  • Tronacate

    Thanks…….I love to see buddies kissing like that…….international Kumbaya…..lol

  • raised_by_wolves

    VIX could, or it may have topped. Here's an updated chart.

    http://screencast.com/t/OGQwZGQ5MzYt

  • bobthehorse

    inventory to sales still heading lower, that is the one to watch

  • CorporalCarrot

    Spx broadening top update. I've been updating this for a few days now, and its incredibly still respecting of the trendlines. Something to explode soon though.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=10&b=5&

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    laziness is a sign of inteligence, getting away with it is proof

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

  • centerline

    Small businesses are being destroyed instead. Makes me laugh (and cry) to see how Main Street has nothing really to do with Wall Street.

  • Schwerepunkt

    That ratio trend would be bullish.

  • bobthehorse

    i don't think eps will get back near the highs for some time for the market overall. but as we go into the next stage of the crisis now, what do you think central banks will do to get rid of this debt? It will make the QE so far look like a mere amuse-bouche. Equities will be offering an inflation-protected dividend yield that has to compete with nominal cash rates near zero. PE multiples are going to be higher than they were at the 2007 highs.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it hit the ma104…

  • Tronacate

    True…..anything can happen…..

  • bobthehorse

    still a lot of inventory to work through, i don;t expect any recovery in construction until H2 2010

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com TomOfTheNorth

    Nice post, gmak!

    gonna have minus 30 windchills in TheNorth today……

  • dixjazzy

    Dear gmak: PLEASE don't hurl epithets at Al Gore! Global warming is A FACT if you bother to look at the data from the scientists who are studying it. Just because there is a winter storm in one part of the world does not disprove anything as the global warming scientists have statistics to show that the AVERAGE global temperature is rising. Therefore, if one part of the world is colder then another must be warmer (eg the Tibetan Plateau where glaciers are melting and the water in its major rivers is declining) and there must be more warmer parts than colder. Now it is legimate to argue whether this is caused by human activity but not whether it is occuring. I personally believe that there might be a natural warming trend, but if there is it is being excacerbated by human activity. If you look at ice core data, you can see that the beginning rise in temperature coincides very nicely with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution – coincidence? Also, you have to consider that the Earth's atmosphere was created over millions of years by all of the life on the planet (plants and animals). Human activity has been increasingly interfering with this process by reducing the amount of life and also by changing the natural atmosphere by industrial activity. So PLEASE disagree if you will but be knowledgeable about it.

    Christine Benton

  • Tronacate

    RUT looks ready to really move to the downside here…..impulse…..flag……..impulse starting again

  • tradejane

    Speaking of construction, stocks like RMIX are actually starting to show some signs of life again.

  • Tronacate

    So Tiny Tim wants to continue the rape and pillage until october eh?…..

  • roncofooddehydrator

    At which point they'll probably want another extension.

  • Tronacate

    Sounds like TT knows there's still a big turd in the toilet……

  • Gerbil_gold

    I value opposing viewpoints, but let's cut to the real deal, shall we?
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/t
    I rest my case.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    better to be in global warming..than global cooling!!

  • ultra

    and so it begins

    lol

  • Schwerepunkt

    I agree with you, but I have a number of Ph.D. types in my family and so do not mistrust academics, unlike many on the other side of the debate. I know that stories of emails aside, it is really not possible for the global scientific community to fudge everything.

    One piece of advice: If I were you, I would not post my name on a public site — even one populated with generally good people.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    nice chart..but I think some data is missing..like a few billion years!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Weird. Oil stocks plunged and instead of crude rising, it fell, along with the Euro and the markets. Maybe they're looking at distillate and gasoline stocks which rose?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Look at that chart again. Hehe.

  • Gerbil_gold

    like Mole said, we lose all water in a billion, burn up in a few more billion.
    no one gets out alive.

  • shortcover

    1089 line in sand…?

  • ultra

    Actually, you got a point there – there has actually been a massive increase in pirates last few years (somalia?), coinciding with… cooling temps!! rofl

  • Tronacate

    Anybody who thinks human energy use and pollution doesn't affect the climate has their head in the sand……

    It would be better to use the term “human climate variance effects” or something to that effect…….some areas will cool others like the poles are warming rapidly.

  • Tronacate

    PPT just tried to juice things up…..didn't work

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hi christine

    Gavin says he misses you… back to RC

  • raised_by_wolves

    For your own safety, I removed your last name from the public record. I'm advising you, gmak, and Tronacate to move the global climate change discussion elsewhere.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    may his noodly appendages touch your tiny gerbil soul

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    euro holding ground so far…pound poo, doesn't feel like we will get dump today..?

  • Gerbil_gold

    mole's awol, we'll hit 500 yet, dag nab it!!!

  • Tronacate

    No reason to get hot under the collar……lol……(just a joke son)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice pup

    (I would have left the name,she can always edit the post)

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Here comes the bounce? Gap hasn't filled from Monday yet…

  • Tronacate

    RUT bounced right off pin low from 12/4……

  • zenob

    Ugh, it's too early and I haven't had enough coffee to be exposed to more “global warming is natural/hoax” nonsense. For one thing, the total warming we've had so far is about 1 degree. One degree is not going to stop winter from occurring so going outside in December and saying “hey there's a winter storm! Global warming must be a hoax!” is just foolish in the extreme. Secondly there isn't any natural explanation(sun, polar “shifts”, etc) that can explain such a rapid rise in global temperatures in such a short amount of time. Here is an excerpt from the National Geographic Global Warming Fast Facts list:

    “• Some experts point out that natural cycles in Earth's orbit can alter the planet's exposure to sunlight, which may explain the current trend. Earth has indeed experienced warming and cooling cycles roughly every hundred thousand years due to these orbital shifts, but such changes have occurred over the span of several centuries. Today's changes have taken place over the past hundred years or less.”

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12

  • marcopolo101520

    It looks like all the data that was used to support the thesis for global warming is flawed and fake. Speaking as a scientist, no one should put this kind of (faked) data out there. This is not even simulated data using models or anything like that, is just made-up data. Sure, the people in Bangladesh suffer and see their houses under water more often, but people have short memories, any record since 2-3000 years ago? Geological data, stuff like this should be available. The point is no evidence and fake data can not support a case. period.

  • Tronacate

    You all better stop before the hammer falls……

  • raised_by_wolves

    This will be our last comment on global warming.

  • Bart7

    hey, it's 590 below zero here in Denver this morning according to the local news website, I guess the sun went out;
    http://www.9news.com/
    actually hit 17 below… but the website must have frozen…

  • TraderGhost

    This bounce is all part of the plan…working out nicely. Especially since I am flat and looking to get back in on the downside yo. keep it coming… the last hoorah. This bounce might be able to be sold into the close… eyes peeled.

    http://tonysmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/

  • Tronacate
  • texpresso

    CSCO green vol staying high, bad sign for shorting tech sm caps, and the Qs. out of edz tza for now. CYD trip to 16 and BRCD trip to 8 look positive

  • zenob

    Trend line, support line and ma50 have all converged on spx. It's not a party till it breaks
    http://screencast.com/t/YWM4NWI5ODc

  • Carl V

    The big trend line from Nov 3 low played its role and ES touched it precisely before bouncing. So this rising trendline still holds but for how long ?
    What bothers me a bit more is the bullish wedge… the intraday double top at 1097.5 is definitely the level to watch…
    http://screencast.com/t/MjUzMDEx

  • raised_by_wolves

    Ball check!

  • TraderGhost

    Nice. I can do one better my friend…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZVsGxa_Vzk

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    bad news

    gold about to crossover into “rise”mode

  • raised_by_wolves

    How's this bad news? Oh yeah, forgot, there's plenty of unhedged equity bears out there.

  • Tronacate

    Very Nice………this is for holding shorts over night:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otuCPqrGd0Q

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    cub, I was spot on for real spx top, though I am a long term bull on gold thought it was too early and this drop would still be nominal

    don't rub salt on poor hamster

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Too late – I just fell out of bed.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    HE'S BAAAACK!

    pleasure to see you sir

    p.s. watch what a little reponsability does… raised by wolves hammering down politics comments

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Getting crushed on my remaining aapl short today ;>)
    …point today to mole

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you for introducing me to the real SPX. Yes, you were spot on. Sorry to pour salt on your wound. However, doesn't salt on a wound keep it from infection?

  • Tronacate

    Dan Fogelberg was discovered at a little coffee house called the Red Herring in Champaign. Il…….University of Illinois.
    Reo Speedwagon and Cheap Trick played at our local bars too.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    FYI, anybody feeling over-exposed and needing a hedge against shorts might look at CML

    This is a little thin, but had a very well received 2ndary in November (priced 19.25). The 2ndary price is now a little below the 50-day, at 19.25; good benchmark now down there.

    I don't recommend it, since I don't recommend anything, but could work as a hedge.

    …CML waking up some today after a bit of a sleep

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    still think the support it's getting on real aapl:gold (bb 104,1.618 lower bb) will be broken, still didn't break ma13

  • TraderGhost

    Hells yeah brother.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I follow the real AAPL. Priced in gold, AAPL's gains aren't as impressive today 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    not when it's been burned LOL

    just kidding, but the jury is still out on this one

  • fuw

    Euro/usd painting another bear flag (compare to yesterday)? This would fit well with a 5 wave scenario down from 1.51.

  • Tronacate

    Pathetic volume…….helium is diffusing out of this balloon

  • Schwerepunkt

    pretty goofy looking flag, though. Certainly not a text-book flag. It might touch 1.48 before it breaks down.

  • gmak

    Citi FX desk reports:

    We continue to expect a test of the 200-day moving average [for EUR] at 1.4118….. Investors should watch the resistance levels at 1.48 then a “double-top neckline” at 1.4854…. A failure to rally through these levels would be an interesting development suggesting a turn back down is likely.

  • gmak

    Just be aware that the SPX bounced off of the green dashed line in my first chart above, today. Coincidence? I think not….. 🙂

  • gregn

    Update on support/resistances: http://screencast.com/t/NWY1NTIzZ

  • fuw

    yes, I agree. I was looking at it on longer timeframes first, but when you zoom in it is messy. Both the messy flag sitting after a big decline and the triangle should resolve down though (if the TA Gods are willing).

  • Gerbil_gold

    Pup's seeing the light. He must have taken the red pill.
    Welcome to the rabbit hole.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you for the non-recommendation recommendation. And although I am not taking your specific recommendation, I am taking your general recommendation to increase my hedge.

  • Gerbil_gold

    practically a gann grid, ouch – my eyes! my eyes! too many lines!!

  • ultra

    Crikey. They have got their (dollar) bull horns on. Plenty of resistance to get through to reach that. Did they specify a timeframe?

  • QevolveQ

    hey CD, i assume you noticed this…but thought i'd mention it fwiw: huge chunk of OI on the Jan 22.50 calls in CML (5K+)

  • raised_by_wolves

    So, you can't tell me what the Matrix is? You really have to show me, uh?

  • Gerbil_gold

    So is it the beer or the local water, eh?

  • Tronacate

    Local beer?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    hadn't looked.
    …what does it mean, we close at 22.51?

  • Tronacate

    BAC is wanting a beat down….just because

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, and we all know the rule of thumb; low volume, green; high volume, red.

  • texpresso

    DIA failed to cross the 50 on the 5 day, looks like a bearish day; CSCO trending down, even w/ heavy vol on the upticks

  • Tronacate

    Green thumb gert may become red thumb gert

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm waiting for dollar comeback or dollar comeback fail.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZGRiMmNiNjQt

  • mtvernon

    I noticed Dubai is now 26% off the high after last night. But hey, the fact that they took on more debt than they could service is a problem unique to them, the rest of the world didn't do this and especially the US. move along, nothing to see

  • QevolveQ

    haha, yes probably…! just interesting that there is such a large chunk there in relation to the other months/strikes (where max OI through July is 707 on the front month 20's)

  • raised_by_wolves

    By the way, I caught you editing your comment. There wasn't an almost there before, and you dropped the rabbit hole mention. Remember, wolves have keen senses.

  • texpresso

    which pill makes t woods go away? i want him out of my life 😉

  • Tronacate

    Now here is one goofy flag…..easy to make I guess:

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b

  • gregn

    The five iron.

  • HungryNewt

    Turn off the “news”.

  • gregn

    Is there anyone here besides Mole and I holding January puts?

  • Gerbil_gold

    ..and gerbils have quick feet.

  • Carl V

    Hi gregn, actually holding Jan calls…on bearish ETFs…

  • Gerbil_gold

    Tron, in the spirit of environmentalism, time for you to go green.
    http://www.comicbookmovie.com/images/users/uplo

  • raised_by_wolves

    Without a constantly-moving-in-one-direction variable like time, your chart should look a lot more squiggly like this:

    http://screencast.com/t/OWUzNmIxZmEt

    By the way, that example is taken from Steve Keen's “Debtwatch No 41, December 2009: 4 Years of Calling the GFC,” which you can read here:

    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/12/01/d

  • Tronacate

    That is one sweet picture……having problems changing my diqus pic today…..darn it

  • gregn

    Are they at about 50% value right now?

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    Holding Jan. calls on SRS and TZA.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ambien acording to his wife LOL

  • Carl V

    Much less…

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    gregn,

    I have some Jan. 110 puts and moles lottery ticket Mar. 75.

    The March have been killing me but didn't put more than I could lose on a lottery pick.

  • gregn

    I loaded up on CAT and SPY puts back on November 9th, which was not a bad entry for either as they are both lower than when I got the puts, however with the vega dropping, my puts are about 50% of what I paid for them. I am doing a risk analysis in ToS (just figured out how to use it — very easy) and I definitely should have done some verticals in there too. I have always been a straight option guy until now. There is definitely a beauty to various strategies.

  • gregn

    The best time have gotten puts was probably on the 25th.

  • marcopolo101520

    anyone heard the bloomberg radio interview about dubai yesterday after close?

    the guy expects them to sell something: either properties aquired at the top (not likely), or treasuries (that would be a problem) or gold, or oil. Maybe this is what is going on right now, all, treasuries, gold, oil are down, somebody is selling them.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Changing the subject to the weather. What's yours like? About 8° F and sunny?

  • Tronacate

    I have some april SRS calls…….Jan 2011 bac puts…..Mar NIHD putz

  • gregn

    That far out of the money isn't terribly expensive, you probably got them around .50 or so — the risk to reward on that is pretty good.

  • marcopolo101520

    troncate,
    saw a posting about GFC, that guy is a weekly read. He knows his stuff and is scary while at the same time true.

  • gregn

    Bac was my favorite trading vehicle back from April to June for day trade scalps. It was so predictable.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but I also saw what you did, nasty gerbil, you should always stand for what you wrote, when editing just add EDIT and state corrections made above e.g. “of course it was ma13, not ma104), or any “apologies” e.g. “of course i meant almost took the red pill and the rabbit hole was a bit overboard”

    just my 2 cents

  • raised_by_wolves

    Here's another update on the dollar.

    http://screencast.com/t/M2QxOGVhZDQ

    Anyone currency trading right now?

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Sounds like my Dec. 109 SPY puts. I'm hoping to get back to 75% value but that is a stretch unless we see 1070's today or tomorrow and then I might eek out a profit. (don't see it happening at this point.) I'm down 45% on those.

  • Carl V

    Fortunately I am also long a lot of bearish ETFs like FAZ, SRS, SDK, DZZ. And those one have no expiration dates 🙂

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    think the downtrend is back, gold did a drop crossover and a low lower than last

  • bluprint

    but they still experience decay…

  • ultra

    No, but more watching for a pointer on general direction. Check out cable though. In typical wildman fashion, GBP is back near LOD. Think EUR is heading down too.

  • Tronacate

    I have FAZ and TZA……they do have some time decay though

  • Gerbil_gold

    Take the blue pill.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqVEEcqrGcA&feat
    'Ignorance is bliss'

  • Carl V

    Agree, and some more than others. This is still unpredictable to me. For example, recently FAZ has been quite stable (although decaying have to agree) while UNG has been horrible. One should banish this one from being traded!

  • raised_by_wolves

    I didn't even know what all these recent Tiger Woods references were about until yesterday when I looked it up on wikipedia. Have they been looping the story on the tube? Whatever it takes to keep the people's minds distracted.

  • Tronacate

    QID might be a better one right now

  • Carl V

    Right, see my comment below – decay they have but at least if you are convinced about market direction in middle term you can afford to keep them. At least this is my opinion. But I have to admit I have been quite intrepid buying calls on 3x direxion ETFs…will see…

  • Gerbil_gold

    chanting 103

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    No it wasn't bad but back then they were around .75 . .26 now but once again it was more of a house money chance. It is more of a red number thing. I hate seeing that in the portfolio.

    And Mole don't get angry with me, you didn't make me take the trade so I hold no ill feelings and March isn't here yet. Plus I could have gotten out with a very small gain way back when but figured it was the houses money anyways.

  • gregn

    The house that slain bears built.

  • Carl V

    The truth is: 2x or 3x ETF's have more decay than “regular” ones. I'll check QID I never studied that one – thx.

  • thunda72

    No… but I'vew got a bunch of MarQQQQ puts.

  • Carl V

    I think that we will see the crucial 1086 ES level challenged again now…and I think broken when I look at oil and gold just now

  • bubble jeopardy

    If P3 is around the corner, decay won't be the problem I suspect. The problem may be whether or not we actually get paid off.

  • gregn

    I was just going to mention a retest of 1086 😉

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Here's the tiger woods news:

    http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/cl

    Something to make you laugh if you haven't seen it.

  • raised_by_wolves

    $DXY moved above my price level . . .

    http://screencast.com/t/MTZkMWYw

  • Carl V

    Question, really interested about your opinion here: from what % do you consider we have a real crash in OIL. So far, in only 4 trading sessions, we went from 80 to 72.5 as I write. Already 10% erased, no?

  • marcopolo101520

    EDZ let's see you baby show us your goodies

  • Tronacate

    H and …… about to confirm on 60min /ES

  • gmak

    It is hanging tough at the 76.043 pivot – but seems unable to get back up to the high from yesterday. I'm not sure if there is the momentum to affect SPX much, here.

    I've got support for SPX at 1086ish.

  • marcopolo101520

    i would say below 65

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^true there…..

  • Tronacate

    TRIN is rocking the real world

  • gmak

    No timeframe in the bit I saw -but I haven't got my hands on the original, just an article about it – derivative, really.

    ________________________________

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Tronacate

    Rockin the free world…..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qpu5ca1fjz4

  • gregn

    That's great, thank you for that.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    so unhedged bears can still dream of a red equities xmas

  • Carl V

    Totally agree with you; I should have bought vertical combos rather than simple puts or calls (on bearish ETFs) and I would still be in the green, or barely losing.Almost each time in the past that I bought or sold vertical spread it was a winner; less gains but much more winning odds, and more relaxing way to trade.

  • texpresso

    obama now: doubling communications stimulus. bullish optical

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    so we hit ma13, if it sustains it goes to an upper band

  • Tronacate

    BTW……that's Dubya in my pic…….rockin' at the wall

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nice gerbil, that's the way, using edit, but there might be some bouncing around before that…

  • Gerbil_gold

    dang, you tracking my IP address boy? that's low. 🙂

  • marcopolo101520

    this obama, doubling stimulus, I tried extenze, can he double that too? tired of all the non-sense around stimulus, did we vote in Japanese elections a year ago? delivering funny news again I see…let's kill/hurt the messenger

  • marcopolo101520

    teach me the art of IP tracking…

  • goldpackers

    Own some feb spy 100 and faz. Think the real kill comes April, May, June. Believe this leg down bottoms in January and rally into March. Just a hunch.

  • marcopolo101520

    oil 70.95 man that's a nice break at the pump unless valero shuts down another refinery

  • texpresso

    trying to avoid politics, i recognize that stimulus destroys more economic utility than it creates. just trying to point to spending effects

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^why?……you wanna be a nerd?

  • marcopolo101520

    without glasses but yeah if I can

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mine is about 18° F and sunny. 🙂

  • Gerbil_gold
  • shortcover

    rolling out some BGZ dec 26 calls for Jan 28's…

  • Tronacate

    I've had people try that shit on other forums……..just go to secure-tunnel if it bugs you.

  • marcopolo101520

    funny avatars changing on me every time i refresh, maybe I get a nice girl soon. what? nerds need girls too

  • raised_by_wolves

    What the fuck are you guys talking about?

  • Gerbil_gold

    whoa! F-bomb.

  • Tronacate

    Schwerepunkt…..like my new avatar???

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^you can't help yourself……it's called addiction

  • Gerbil_gold

    250 comments…<huff, puff, huff>

  • gregn

    You don't have to worry about anything except for price. It completely neutralizes theta burn and vega burn. Your profit actually increases the closer you get to expiration (if near your target).

  • Tronacate

    Dropping the F-bomb…..with meaning:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6GziGGjujs

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'd rather not comment on that. Let's just say I enjoy the irony of that pic.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Flat markets suck. Since I'm not a bull, not sure how it is affecting their outlook. Is today a victory so far, or a loss?

  • Carl V

    Right. Do you use a piece of option software or just looking at the underlying ? I tend to gauge the underlying then use a good xls spreadsheet “Option star” that graphs your odds of success and highlight cheap vs expensive series by downloading directly from yahoo.

  • gregn

    If we can break through 1086, there will be a nice drop, we are going back for a retest after bouncing off of that level.

  • gregn

    I am using ToS' risk profile — it is the best that I have ever seen as far as option pricing.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The Gold Gerbil's impressed? Apparently it missed my post from a week ago:

    My reasoning was thus: “There's a fuckin' downtrend in fuckin' SPX priced in fuckin' gold but fuckin' SPX priced in fuckin' dollars hasn't fuckin' reversed yet. So, I will buy some fuckin' GLD calls while I fuckin' wait for fuckin' Samuel Beckett.”

    That's not even impressive for me. You should hear me when I'm angry.

    The unwritten rule now written is: No one gets to swear as much as Raised By Wolves.

  • Tronacate

    I thought he was Methodist……must not know much about his own faith………very moronic……I mean ironic

  • TraderGhost

    Be careful out there kids. Made a nice small chunk on that last move down after the bounce. I think we bounce again this afternoon.

  • Tronacate

    Only one appropriate response:

    http://images.starcraftmazter.net/4chan/animals

  • shortcover

    SCO nice move past few days…never pulled trigger under 13. every time…shoot…

  • texpresso

    day longs: 2 up, 1 down, 1 flat, fun day

  • elliott_surfs
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    LOL, if I started swearing you'd blush. Swearing is an art, not how many fucks you use

  • Gerbil_gold

    not impressed.
    let's go nuk-u-lar.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TlN66m82Ww&feat

  • labdude

    I wish this market would hurry up and die.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for the laugh yo. Now, let me get back to work fuckin' the charts. Everything was under control. And now this breach below the 133 of 133 of 133? Head fake?

  • bubble jeopardy

    That will probably happen in wave 3 of P3 and in a hurry.

  • labdude

    I'm new to elliottwave–but my meager analysis shows it should.

    I'm so short you could call me an Asian penis.

  • Tronacate

    You can ridicule any race except Jews…….fire away

  • bubble jeopardy

    Don't fire all of your bullets yet

  • texpresso

    i grew up on nucular, never changed til college, nuclear still sounds wrong 😉

  • marcopolo101520

    another nerd, welcome! we appreciate honesty.

  • Tronacate

    Tsar Bomba:
    And we always thought we had the biggest

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxD44HO8dNQ

  • labdude

    I've been lurking for 6 or 7 weeks now–I've put in my 2 cents—best I can do–I have to get back to work–have a good afternoon everyone (sincerely!!)!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    drop by when you can and drop any sincere 2 cents 😉

  • amokta

    Ok, where is P3 ?!?
    By the way, i am just in process of getting an optionsexpress.com account (i currently have only a phone broker service for options). Noticed that the spread between bid and ask is huge for quite a lot of stocks/way-out strike prices/low open interest (often 30-40%). Is this a rip-off? Also do they only do US stocks/options. Also does 'open-interst' matter – is it possible that one would not be able to close an option position to to lack of counter-party?

  • raised_by_wolves

    $INDU is only 100 points away from a little hell breaking lose and yet I've noticed that everything is being controlled very, very well. Yes, everything is under control. Perhaps this is the PPT's finest hour, and you didn't even know it.

    http://screencast.com/t/NTYxOGI2MT

  • Gerbil_gold

    swear in french is like wiping with silk. [matrix reference]

  • Gerbil_gold

    i swear, when the volatility smooths out, you can see the program trading on the 3min ticks.
    it's a frakin parabola class. smooth as silk.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Really, SSH, why'd you have to go and greet him (penis reference blew his chances of convincingly impersonating a woman)? I was just about to ban his ass. 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    I never swear at the tape. That would be a bad habit to start. I'd lose coin for sure.

  • ablebonus

    Kenny said this a few days ago:

    Neo: “I tell you it's like they know, if it breaks they can't control it, so they just don't let it break.”

    Morpheus: “Exactly, Neo. You are now beginning to understand.

  • texpresso

    TZA missed stopping by 0.01 this morning (thought it stopped) now it looks like good, nice to get some good luck

  • HungryNewt

    There is very little volume on options which are not in the front month, consequently the market makers bank coin off of the spread. It can be very difficult to get a fill for way-out month options. As hard as it is to get into a trade, it can be just as hard to get out of. Usually you have to be willing to give the market makers some of the value of the option just to make the trade either way.

    If you still want to trade them, you can use an option calc to determine approximate fair value for the options and then submit a bid/offer around that to see if the MM's take it…. good luck though.

    If you're new to options, as your post suggests, I recommend staying away from far out option series…

  • gsavli

    inflection point on SPX right here.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Quite frankly, I find it beautiful. I admire much of their work.

  • thunda72

    I'd stick to trading heavily-traded stocks and ETFs and keep it In-the Money or At-the-money in order to keep the spreads down. I like to stick to the options that have a good amount of Open interest. Your order is more likely to get filled that way.

  • gregn

    Do you typically day trade leveraged ETF's?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    only if they can boost nominal from here. and bpspx still points down

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    swearing in portuguese is like wiping with barbed wire

  • texpresso

    typically when i feel the markets are generally bearish, otherwise no

  • Gerbil_gold

    LoL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did he try impersonating a woman? didn't see that

    but hold your mod powers, you're being tempted by the dark side

  • gregn

    Fellas, if we can get a break of 1086 with conviction, we will be at 1070 in pretty short order: http://screencast.com/t/ZDZhOGE5M

  • ultra

    Not sure if anyone pointed this out but did you notice that the low start of November coincided with the full moon and the recent high was 2 days after this month's…

    Woooooooo

    Down channels are still intact.

  • gmak

    Treas auction of 10 year bills (21 bb) did not go over well. Relatively big spike in the TNX. The market is starting to push back

  • marcopolo101520

    oil 70.63
    gold 1112
    silver 17.11
    my take is today bread down big in the end or push up big. make it or break it! drip, drip, drip starts to look like last year

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    So do I, but with a fraction of their money I could send equities to stone age values, and do it in an even more elegant way (they are slopy when they're scared

  • Gerbil_gold

    300! This is Sparta!!!!!

  • Gerbil_gold

    agreed Greg, but i see a support level at 1080 first.

  • Tronacate

    Looks like Prechter is really Nostradamus………dollar on a roll……..everything else falling together

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Can anyone get a real time TED spread chart?

  • gsavli

    looks like it will go the right way.

  • centerline

    VIX playing along OK too. Not great, but still time left today.

  • ultra

    He really nailed it this time! The man's a god!!!

    ahem

    😉

  • Tronacate

    RUT leading the way…..just cracked LOD

  • Tronacate

    Russell just cracked lod

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro still not at a new LOD yet.

  • Gerbil_gold

    SPY 109 puts, someone stop me. finger gettin itchy.

  • texpresso

    hour late to this subject, but: IMO the poo will not hit the fan until during the january Q conference calls. everyone will have good rev, but start guiding flat to down since hiring will not have begun by then; thus, i think by mid february selling will be strong. reason i think this is Chambers said CSCO will disappoint in 2Q10 if customers do not start hiring, and they aren't. also, IMO the LEI should be down, if not negative, by then, put them together…

  • Tronacate

    IYR H&S on 5 min

  • Tronacate

    HERO getting spanked…..logical all things considered

  • Tronacate

    DRYS flirting with 6

  • raised_by_wolves

    No, I was just making a joke.

    Yes, I felt myself being pulled in that direction.

  • Gerbil_gold

    define “cracked”. 15 min candle beyond the line?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did a crazy hamster talk about s&p 1070 sunday or something? and about gold 1100-1150?

    now for the bad news… I hate prescience… this scenario is still in order? I say none of the conditions were met… DO COMMENT

    3 weeks ago
    Getting late and the market is tired…as in the dates I mentionedin the other post there will be an attempt to gap up an invalidate the h&s and reset the count.

    if it fails (and nasdaq is our last stand) then this was a megaphone top

    if it succeeds this suckers's hiting 1150 in no time and head for 1200-1300 range after indulging a small drop to 1070

    that's my view

    vix must reach 36
    bpspx must break 70
    spx:gold must break 0.91

    otherwise it's usd to shitland, vix below 19 and bpspx hoovering above 90 and s&p deciding if it wants 1200, 1300 or 1500… at least for a quarter

  • Tronacate

    5 min candle closed below

  • raised_by_wolves

    Welcome to Evil Speculator. See you tomorrow.

  • Tronacate

    15 min also

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    TRIN has been rising nicely all day and VIX is positive again.

  • raised_by_wolves

    What about up? Could you get equities up higher?

  • gregn

    I see VIX completing a megaphone bottom currently — we are on our way towards 36: http://screencast.com/t/OWQ0NTdmM

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm archiving this comment of yours.

    http://screencast.com/t/NjVkODE0Yjc

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    read my answer to greg (couple of minutes ago) of course I could (though with a gold price to it) I'd let just the first wave down, truncated of course, let gold slip down and then use the fear of gold plunge stop the escalation for a while, that should allow at least spx:gold close to 1.1 instead of 1.0 for a while. then i'd let gold rise beyond spx and do a silent devaluation with no bears left.

    it was done in 2005

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course we are, BUT none of the conditions I have set 3 weeks ago have been met

    no H&S, we touched some of my conditions but didn't break…

    a couple of gap ups and we're dead bear meat

  • centerline

    zzzzz for now. suspect we don't see any fireworks until we grind down and retest 1086. Should be at about 3 pm as least at this rate. zzzzz.

  • Gerbil_gold

    interesting.
    1.0 seems high, but then BB104 is at 1.02.
    you should do a guest column! when Gmak is sick with the flu.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    might as well have archived it back then

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=12744#comment-2316

    it's beyond the first 150, but you'll find it

  • raised_by_wolves

    If you think you could do it, don't you think they can do it (again) too?

  • yudhisthira

    Wishful thinking: series of ones and twos from Friday's spx high.
    Good place for an upside explosion to burst the dream.

  • centerline

    FWIW, LQD jumping the tracks over the last couple of days. Still not sure exactly what it means for equities, but interesting nonetheless.

  • fuw

    Yep, I've also been watching that. Nice trend indeed – hope it pays off.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I just checked my Jing history, and look what I found:

    http://screencast.com/t/MjVlYTdhYWUt

    Whoa, deja vu. A black cat went past us, and then another that looked just like it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it would be uter suicide (politicaly) we're on compressed time compared to 2003-2007, they'd get a full force wave down long before elections and each one is harder to break than the previous.

    I'm trusting there is at least someone that sees that letting a smaller fractal of 2008 end this stage with a nominal double bottom is way better for them than holding an unsustainable bid

    but as we're dealing with government people I'm affraid they're just stupid button pushers for a tool developed by someone with far more brains and they don't see long term (and the original developer is long gone, probably put aside for “alarmistic rants” or because he died… I think these tools were created between the makeshift 88 ramp and the high tech 97 correction)

    I fear stupids are in charge

  • Gerbil_gold

    now do you believe Neo?
    Agents!!!

  • gmak

    Real time? Doubt it. Try this:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=

  • Tronacate

    DTG breaking down nicely……a BERKSTER short pick

  • marcopolo101520

    wanting to get into 2x short oil etf, SCO, looks like a breakout.
    maybe when will test again

  • raised_by_wolves

    If I reply with what I'm thinking (something about Anna and racing stripes), I think SSH will ban me so I better not say it.

  • raised_by_wolves

    That's a very good distinction between the creators of the tools and the users.

  • gregn

    Do you currently have access to stop loss levels? If so, is there a large amount of orders around 1086?

  • Tronacate

    See that too….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I mentioned 3 weeks ago, I had a bad feeling and searched my comments for that one

    we should get a further drop on the real spx, if it bounces hard from the ma13 i think we've had it…

  • raised_by_wolves
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, STOP GS WAVE TIME

  • Schwerepunkt

    Here comes the fudge. Soiled short scenario? ES looks due for a rally from 1086.

  • amokta

    thanks (& to thunda72), for earlier info !

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I never banned anyone, just terminated a replicant

  • gmak

    No, I don't.

    SPX 1086 is a support pivot that has pushed SPX up a number of times. My best guess is that there would be longs covering below it (the dashed horizontal green line for the daily SPX is right about there as well) since it has been such a “line in the sand”.

    ________________________________

  • fuw

    I've posted a similar chart before, but I think that it might be something to look out for, to reevaluate dollar positions.

    euro/usd
    http://www.screencast.com/users/fuw/folders/Jin

    The previous breakout line (green) is a likely target if the euro cannot find support here at ~1.47. Right now this also coincides with the horizontal support. The area I'm looking for is ~1.46-1.461.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    update on my inflexion point careful about 1079

  • raised_by_wolves

    As long as the real SPX top is in (the one assumption I'm allowing myself right now), I'll profit. If the real SPX top isn't in, this car ride will lead to a near life experience for Tyler and me.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Sorry, took me a while…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    will a real spx double top screw you too much?

    it shouldn't happen, there will be hell to pay, but it's feasable

    when you trade… http://images.starcraftmazter.net/4chan/animals

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Mwwuuuaahaaaahaaaa!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Let's stop chatting (before I get terminated), and watch the dollar drop. That's why we're here. To watch the dollar drop. Isn't that the point of life?

  • raised_by_wolves

    My portfolio can survive a real spx double top no problem without needing any adjustments as long the double top were to occur within six months.

  • raised_by_wolves

    A triple top that concludes 12 months from now would be the unexpected butt-fucking surprise-me.

  • Gerbil_gold

    360 comments. not bad.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    funny wolf, dollar will fall a lot more, but I hope not yet

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't see it beyond january… but then again…

    gold should be a good hedge (i just felt it had some correction to make, and it did)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't mention it

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes it is… created a few

  • raised_by_wolves

    Silly Hamster, I didn't mean to zero (if that's what you were thinking). I just mean from 76.31 to 74, 73, or 72ish. From the low/mid seventies, it can go to 100 for all I care.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    might do 74 or 73 (not in between) to end if it has not done so. but don't believe in anything beyond that at this stage

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^you can't help yourself……it's called addiction

  • Gold_Gerb

    250 comments…<huff, puff, huff>

  • Tronacate

    Dropping the F-bomb…..with meaning:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6GziGGjujs

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'd rather not comment on that. Let's just say I enjoy the irony of that pic.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Flat markets suck. Since I'm not a bull, not sure how it is affecting their outlook. Is today a victory so far, or a loss?

  • gregn

    If we can break through 1086, there will be a nice drop, we are going back for a retest after bouncing off of that level.

  • raised_by_wolves

    The Gold Gerbil's impressed? Apparently it missed my post from a week ago:

    My reasoning was thus: “There's a fuckin' downtrend in fuckin' SPX priced in fuckin' gold but fuckin' SPX priced in fuckin' dollars hasn't fuckin' reversed yet. So, I will buy some fuckin' GLD calls while I fuckin' wait for fuckin' Samuel Beckett.”

    That's not even impressive for me. You should hear me when I'm angry.

    The unwritten rule now written is: No one gets to swear as much as Raised By Wolves. Edit: Except for Mole if wishes.

  • Tronacate

    I thought he was Methodist……must not know much about his own faith………very moronic……I mean ironic

  • TraderGhost

    Be careful out there kids. Made a nice small chunk on that last move down after the bounce. I think we bounce again this afternoon.

  • Tronacate

    Only one appropriate response:

    http://images.starcraftmazter.net/4chan/animals

  • shortcover

    SCO nice move past few days…never pulled trigger under 13. every time…shoot…

  • texpresso

    day longs: 2 up, 1 down, 1 flat, fun day

  • elliott_surfs

    short-n-sweet
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/12/too-few-be

    p.s. – gold goes wheeeeeeee

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    LOL, if I started swearing you'd blush. Swearing is an art, not how many fucks you use

  • Gold_Gerb

    not impressed.
    let's go nuk-u-lar.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TlN66m82Ww&feat

  • labdude

    I wish this market would hurry up and die.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for the laugh yo. Now, let me get back to fuckin' the charts. Everything was under control. And now this breach below the 133 of 133 of 133? Head fake?

    Edit: That is, back to the fuckin' chart.

  • bubble jeopardy

    That will probably happen in wave 3 of P3 and in a hurry.

  • labdude

    I'm new to elliottwave–but my meager analysis shows it should.

    I'm so short you could call me an Asian penis.

  • Tronacate

    You can ridicule any race except Jews…….fire away

  • bubble jeopardy

    Don't fire all of your bullets yet

  • texpresso

    i grew up on nucular, never changed til college, nuclear still sounds wrong 😉

  • marcopolo101520

    another nerd, welcome! we appreciate honesty.

  • Tronacate

    Tsar Bomba:
    And we always thought we had the biggest

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxD44HO8dNQ

  • labdude

    I've been lurking for 6 or 7 weeks now–I've put in my 2 cents—best I can do–I have to get back to work–have a good afternoon everyone (sincerely!!)!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    drop by when you can and drop any sincere 2 cents 😉

  • amokta

    Ok, where is P3 ?!?
    By the way, i am just in process of getting an optionsexpress.com account (i currently have only a phone broker service for options). Noticed that the spread between bid and ask is huge for quite a lot of stocks/way-out strike prices/low open interest (often 30-40%). Is this a rip-off? Also do they only do US stocks/options. Also does 'open-interst' matter – is it possible that one would not be able to close an option position to to lack of counter-party?

  • raised_by_wolves

    $INDU is only 100 points away from a little hell breaking lose and yet I've noticed that everything is being controlled very, very well. Yes, everything is under control. Perhaps this is the PPT's finest hour, and you didn't even know it.

    http://screencast.com/t/NTYxOGI2MT

  • Gold_Gerb

    swear in french is like wiping with silk. [matrix reference]

  • Gold_Gerb

    i swear, when the volatility smooths out, you can see the program trading on the 3min ticks.
    it's a frakin parabola class. smooth as silk.

    EDIT: okay, maybe sandpaper.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Really, SSH, why'd you have to go and greet him (penis reference blew his chances of convincingly impersonating a woman)? I was just about to ban his ass. 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    I never swear at the tape. That would be a bad habit to start. I'd lose coin for sure.

  • ablebonus

    Kenny said this a few days ago:

    Neo: “I tell you it's like they know, if it breaks they can't control it, so they just don't let it break.”

    Morpheus: “Exactly, Neo. You are now beginning to understand.

  • texpresso

    TZA missed stopping by 0.01 this morning (thought it stopped) now it looks like good, nice to get some good luck

  • HungryNewt

    There is very little volume on options which are not in the front month, consequently the market makers bank coin off of the spread. It can be very difficult to get a fill for way-out month options. As hard as it is to get into a trade, it can be just as hard to get out of. Usually you have to be willing to give the market makers some of the value of the option just to make the trade either way.

    If you still want to trade them, you can use an option calc to determine approximate fair value for the options and then submit a bid/offer around that to see if the MM's take it…. good luck though.

    If you're new to options, as your post suggests, I recommend staying away from far out option series…

  • gsavli

    inflection point on SPX right here.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Quite frankly, I find it beautiful. I admire much of their work.

  • thunda72

    I'd stick to trading heavily-traded stocks and ETFs and keep it In-the Money or At-the-money in order to keep the spreads down. I like to stick to the options that have a good amount of Open interest. Your order is more likely to get filled that way.

  • gregn

    Do you typically day trade leveraged ETF's?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    only if they can boost nominal from here. and bpspx still points down

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    swearing in portuguese is like wiping with barbed wire

  • texpresso

    typically when i feel the markets are generally bearish, otherwise no

  • Gold_Gerb

    LoL

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did he try impersonating a woman? didn't see that

    but hold your mod powers, you're being tempted by the dark side

  • gregn

    Fellas, if we can get a break of 1086 with conviction, we will be at 1070 in pretty short order: http://screencast.com/t/ZDZhOGE5M

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Not sure if anyone pointed this out but did you notice that the low start of November coincided with the full moon and the recent high was 2 days after this month's…

    Woooooooo

    Down channels are still intact.

  • gmak

    Treas auction of 10 year bills (21 bb) did not go over well. Relatively big spike in the TNX. The market is starting to push back

  • marcopolo101520

    oil 70.63
    gold 1112
    silver 17.11
    my take is today bread down big in the end or push up big. make it or break it! drip, drip, drip starts to look like last year

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    So do I, but with a fraction of their money I could send equities to stone age values, and do it in an even more elegant way (they are slopy when they're scared

  • Gold_Gerb

    300! This is Sparta!!!!!

  • Gold_Gerb

    agreed Greg, but i see a support level at 1080 first.

    EDIT: see October 13'ish peak. DOUBLE EDIT: Sept 25th'ish spike too.

  • Tronacate

    Looks like Prechter is really Nostradamus………dollar on a roll……..everything else falling together

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Can anyone get a real time TED spread chart?

  • gsavli

    looks like it will go the right way.

  • centerline

    VIX playing along OK too. Not great, but still time left today.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    He really nailed it this time! The man's a god!!!

    ahem

    😉

  • Tronacate

    RUT leading the way…..just cracked LOD

  • Tronacate

    Russell just cracked lod

  • Schwerepunkt

    Euro still not at a new LOD yet.

  • Gold_Gerb

    SPY 109 puts, someone stop me. finger gettin itchy.

    Edit:
    after looking again: we've been in this sideways channel since Nov 9th.
    A head fake lower (even for a few days) is quite the possibility. No need to get whipsawed. patience.
    Plenty of time down at 107-106.

  • texpresso

    hour late to this subject, but: IMO the poo will not hit the fan until during the january Q conference calls. everyone will have good rev, but start guiding flat to down since hiring will not have begun by then; thus, i think by mid february selling will be strong. reason i think this is Chambers said CSCO will disappoint in 2Q10 if customers do not start hiring, and they aren't. also, IMO the LEI should be down, if not negative, by then, put them together…

  • Tronacate

    IYR H&S on 5 min

  • Tronacate

    HERO getting spanked…..logical all things considered

  • Tronacate

    DRYS flirting with 6

  • raised_by_wolves

    No, I was just making a joke.

    Yes, I felt myself being pulled in that direction.

  • Gold_Gerb

    define “cracked”. 15 min candle beyond the line?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    did a crazy hamster talk about s&p 1070 sunday or something? and about gold 1100-1150?

    now for the bad news… I hate prescience… this scenario is still in order? I say none of the conditions were met… DO COMMENT

    3 weeks ago
    Getting late and the market is tired…as in the dates I mentionedin the other post there will be an attempt to gap up an invalidate the h&s and reset the count.

    if it fails (and nasdaq is our last stand) then this was a megaphone top

    if it succeeds this suckers's hiting 1150 in no time and head for 1200-1300 range after indulging a small drop to 1070

    that's my view

    vix must reach 36
    bpspx must break 70
    spx:gold must break 0.91

    otherwise it's usd to shitland, vix below 19 and bpspx hoovering above 90 and s&p deciding if it wants 1200, 1300 or 1500… at least for a quarter

  • Tronacate

    5 min candle closed below

  • raised_by_wolves

    Welcome to Evil Speculator. See you tomorrow.

  • Tronacate

    15 min also

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    TRIN has been rising nicely all day and VIX is positive again.

  • raised_by_wolves

    What about up? Could you get equities up higher?

  • gregn

    I see VIX completing a megaphone bottom currently — we are on our way towards 36: http://screencast.com/t/OWQ0NTdmM

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm archiving this comment of yours.

    http://screencast.com/t/NjVkODE0Yjc

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    read my answer to greg (couple of minutes ago) of course I could (though with a gold price to it) I'd let just the first wave down, truncated of course, let gold slip down and then use the fear of gold plunge stop the escalation for a while, that should allow at least spx:gold close to 1.1 instead of 1.0 for a while. then i'd let gold rise beyond spx and do a silent devaluation with no bears left.

    it was done in 2005

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    of course we are, BUT none of the conditions I have set 3 weeks ago have been met

    no H&S, we touched some of my conditions but didn't break…

    a couple of gap ups and we're dead bear meat

  • centerline

    zzzzz for now. suspect we don't see any fireworks until we grind down and retest 1086. Should be at about 3 pm as least at this rate. zzzzz.

  • Gold_Gerb

    interesting.
    1.0 seems high, but then BB104 is at 1.02.
    you should do a guest column! when Gmak is sick with the flu.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    might as well have archived it back then

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=12744#comment-2316

    it's beyond the first 150, but you'll find it

  • raised_by_wolves

    If you think you could do it, don't you think they can do it (again) too?

  • yudhisthira

    Wishful thinking: series of ones and twos from Friday's spx high.
    Good place for an upside explosion to burst the dream.

  • centerline

    FWIW, LQD jumping the tracks over the last couple of days. Still not sure exactly what it means for equities, but interesting nonetheless.

  • fuw

    Yep, I've also been watching that. Nice trend indeed – hope it pays off.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I just checked my Jing history, and look what I found:

    http://screencast.com/t/MjVlYTdhYWUt

    Whoa, deja vu. A black cat went past us, and then another that looked just like it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it would be uter suicide (politicaly) we're on compressed time compared to 2003-2007, they'd get a full force wave down long before elections and each one is harder to break than the previous.

    I'm trusting there is at least someone that sees that letting a smaller fractal of 2008 end this stage with a nominal double bottom is way better for them than holding an unsustainable bid

    but as we're dealing with government people I'm affraid they're just stupid button pushers for a tool developed by someone with far more brains and they don't see long term (and the original developer is long gone, probably put aside for “alarmistic rants” or because he died… I think these tools were created between the makeshift 88 ramp and the high tech 97 correction)

    I fear stupids are in charge

  • Gold_Gerb

    now do you believe Neo?
    Agents!!!

  • gmak

    Real time? Doubt it. Try this:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=

  • Tronacate

    DTG breaking down nicely……a BERKSTER short pick

  • marcopolo101520

    wanting to get into 2x short oil etf, SCO, looks like a breakout.
    maybe when will test again

  • raised_by_wolves

    If I reply with what I'm thinking (something about Anna and racing stripes), I think SSH will ban me so I better not say it.

    Edit: alternatively, something about Anna wearing a red dress, which would lead to the same result—my banishment.

  • raised_by_wolves

    That's a very good distinction between the creators of the tools and the users.

  • gregn

    Do you currently have access to stop loss levels? If so, is there a large amount of orders around 1086?

  • Tronacate

    See that too….

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I mentioned 3 weeks ago, I had a bad feeling and searched my comments for that one

    we should get a further drop on the real spx, if it bounces hard from the ma13 i think we've had it…

  • raised_by_wolves
  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW, STOP GS WAVE TIME

  • Schwerepunkt

    Here comes the fudge. Soiled short scenario? ES looks due for a rally from 1086.

  • amokta

    thanks (& to thunda72), for earlier info !

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I never banned anyone, just terminated a replicant

  • gmak

    No, I don't.

    SPX 1086 is a support pivot that has pushed SPX up a number of times. My best guess is that there would be longs covering below it (the dashed horizontal green line for the daily SPX is right about there as well) since it has been such a “line in the sand”.

    ________________________________

  • fuw

    I've posted a similar chart before, but I think that it might be something to look out for, to reevaluate dollar positions.

    euro/usd
    http://www.screencast.com/users/fuw/folders/Jin

    The previous breakout line (green) is a likely target if the euro cannot find support here at ~1.47. Right now this also coincides with the horizontal support. The area I'm looking for is ~1.46-1.461.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    update on my inflexion point careful about 1079

  • raised_by_wolves

    As long as the real SPX top is in (the one assumption I'm allowing myself right now), I'll profit. If the real SPX top isn't in, this car ride will lead to a near life experience for Tyler and me.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

    Sorry, took me a while…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    will a real spx double top screw you too much?

    it shouldn't happen, there will be hell to pay, but it's feasable

    when you trade… http://images.starcraftmazter.net/4chan/animals

  • raised_by_wolves

    Let's stop chatting (before I get terminated), and watch the dollar drop. That's why we're here. To watch the dollar drop. Isn't that the point of life?

  • raised_by_wolves

    My portfolio can survive a real spx double top no problem without needing any adjustments as long the double top were to occur within six months.

  • raised_by_wolves

    A triple top that concludes 12 months from now would be the unexpected butt-fucking surprise-me.

  • Gold_Gerb

    360 comments. not bad.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    funny wolf, dollar will fall a lot more, but I hope not yet

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't see it beyond january… but then again…

    gold should be a good hedge (i just felt it had some correction to make, and it did)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't mention it

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes it is… created a few

  • raised_by_wolves

    Silly Hamster, I didn't mean to zero (if that's what you were thinking). I just mean from 76.31 to 74, 73, or 72ish. From the low/mid seventies, it can go to 100 for all I care.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    might do 74 or 73 (not in between) to end if it has not done so. but don't believe in anything beyond that at this stage