Long Term Perspectives

Not surprisingly we are now seeing a bit of post Thanksgiving profit taking on both the equity and currency side. Had I not been stopped out on Friday already I most definitely would have been yesterday. And now the trails of both of my forex campaigns also received a visit so I’m almost all in cash. Holiday weeks are great periods for break-out formations due to less liquidity allowing institutional traders to leverage their market moving capabilities and pin the tape to their liking.

I can’t really complain however as GBP/Whipsaw got snagged at about 1.2R. Not enough to retire on but it’s another penny in the piggy 😉

The EUR/USD campaign fared a bit better, closing out at 2.5R. I don’t expect the current weakness to last very long and thus will be on the outlook for a re-entry. Long unfortunately yes – unless we see a regime change at the Fed and the full scope of the political and economic crisis that are brewing in Europe the old greenback is just going to keep taking it up the you-know-what.

Although there isn’t too much out there tickles my fancy right now I found two long term charts I wanted to share early. One of them is the AUD/USD which is exhibiting early signs of a potential break out pattern. We have the pinched weekly BBs followed by a break out attempt that ends up failing. Currently it’s revisiting the 100-week SMA and thus we will be looking for an entry opportunity in expectation of a run higher.

An even more compelling chart is crude of all symbols. Relegated for years now as the veritable bitch boy of the futures pit it’s been slowly planning its revenge whilst clawing its way higher one tick at a time. Oh boy, we really need a graphic for this one, don’t we? Anyway, there is a risk that it’ll pull a reversal just like the AUD but the odds during an early break out pattern are somewhere around 50/50 (non-scientific/statistic – purely based on personal observation over the past decade or so).

I’m looking for a lottery ticket entry opportunity here, and speaking of which:

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