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Look Ma’ – No Hands!
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Look Ma’ – No Hands!

by The MoleJuly 31, 2019

So I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me why we are even talking about a rate cut here. Last time I checked the SPX was frolicking near its all time highs while employment figures were at levels not seen since the mid 1960s. Nevertheless another rate cut appears to be all but baked in.

At least judging by the fed fund futures which are currently suggesting a 73% probability of at least a 25bsp cut in the fed funds target rate. Effectively meaning there’s no chance of no change.

Whether the past decade of quantitative easing was justifiable remains yet to be seen. The rampant moral hazard and ethical decay that we are witnessing all across the West seems to be arguing to the contrary. At least back in 2008 everyone could agree that there was a legit prerequisite for considering unorthodox Fed measures.

In the past when the Fed started to lower rates it was always during a financial crisis or as a belated response to an economy in distress. Since the June FOMC meeting economic data has beating expectations. The second quarter GDP report showed that the economy expanded at a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate, following a 3.1% expansion in the first quarter.

Meanwhile consumer spending, accounting for 70% of the U.S. economy, grew at a 4.3% rate in the latest quarter. Domestic final sales grew at a 3.5% last quarter, doubling the 1.6% of the first quarter. And finally the average of the first two quarters shows GDP growing at above 2.6%, thus exceeding the Fed’s own forecast of 2.1% for 2019.

Yet despite all this the FOMC is now all but certain to cut the FFR by a minimum of a 25bps today and most likely follow up with yet another 25bps in September. Some analysts have even suggested that the Fed could announce an early end to its balance-sheet shrinkage. Exciting!

Feeling A Wee Bit Better

Anyway, I shouldn’t get upset as I’m still recovering from my rogue thyroid which almost put me into the hospital last week. My doctor was tempted to have me committed (yes in the insane asylum as well) but then decided to prescribe some meds along with copious amounts of bedrest.

Now the freaky thing about hyperthyroidism is that you are burning calories like crazy as your system is flooded with T3 and T4 hormones. The body starts to deplete first whatever fat you may have and after that taps your muscles as well. And it happens extremely fast, especially if you aren’t equipped with much fat deposits to start with.

Within the course of one single month I dropped from a 83 kilo (183lbs) lean and mean Gym God to a 70 kilo (153lbs) skeleton. Of course none of my clothes fit me anymore, except my shoes of course. Yes it sucks but I’m on meds now without major side effects and am starting to get better.

Now since I’m a glass half full kinda guy let me tell you the good part: I get to eat as much bred pudding as I want – it’s like I’m 12 years old again. The picture really doesn’t do this thing justice – my wife picked up two one pound blocks of bred pudding at our favorite bakery, which by the way made them specially just for me.

They’re literally two bricks of fat and sugar – delicious as hell and I’m going to eat my way through both of them. Yes, of course I’m eating nutritional stuff as always but my wife’s mission for the next few weeks is to fatten me up as much as possible again 😉

So over the past week I haven’t been trading much but most of our open position appear to be in fine shape. The E-Mini hasn’t moved much but after some HV gyrations I’ve finally advanced my trail from break/even to about 0.8r. I have an inkling this is going to increase significantly in a short order.

Gold also has been on summer churn and after 10 days I was forced to roll it into December at about 1R in profits. Not bad and the odds of continuation higher here look pretty good.

The ZB campaign unfortunately was stopped out during a quick stab lower. Which is a shame as it turned around almost instantly and now looks poised to head higher. A ton of intraday volatility here by the way which stands in stark contrast to the daily panel. And that means wide stops – wider than I chose last time.

I kept the best for last: the dollar futures. I’m currently trailing at 1.8 but once again I have an inkling and this time it’s that this one is going to get touched sometime after today’s FOMC announcement.

Well it’s been a good run – not a great one – but given that the current Fed only pays lip service to a strong Dollar policy it’s probably as good as it gets.

SHAMELESS PLUG

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Again, this offer won’t be available forever, so get off the damn fence and buy it now!

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Ronebadger

    Mole – Glad you’re feeling better.

    Re: Fed – I think the Fed is scared of DEFLATION, but won’t say so. They can deal with inflation, but deflation is anathema to them. Just my opinion for what it’s worth.

  • Ronebadger

    AFTER I posted the above, I read the first part of this article:

    https://stockcharts.com/articles/tradingplaces/2019/07/traders-await-fed-apple-blows-238.html

  • HD

    “So I’m still waiting for someone to explain to me why we are even talking about a rate cut here”

    1 word- TRUMPTARDS

  • HD

    I can go to the tweets if you don’t believe me.

  • Edgy

    All I know is Fed announcements make for some wild rides during those last 2 hours.

  • HD
  • HD

    all eyes SPX 3000! JMO

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB The Fed is definitely worried about deflation All one has to do is look at $CRB (Commodity Index)
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Glad you are feeling better Chief
    JULIE

  • RoastBeeph

    Exactly, idiot Trump is trying to bully the Fed into this so he can get reelected, propping up the market artificially.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    True that. But let’s not forget that the Fed did it voluntarily and happily during Obama’s tenure.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks darling. Poco a poco…

  • ridingwaves

    yep, plus they have lots of GS folks in their ear, some in a seat..

  • HD

    can you point us to where Obama openly tried to influence the FED?

  • ridingwaves

    they have been doing it since Greenspan….has little to do with the potus…..everything to do with glass steagall repeal by Clinton…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Discussing the FED There is a bill in Congress named the Fed Transparency Bill to audit the FED which I pointed out in a previous thread.It has passed the House and now awaits the Senate. It has not been discussed in the media at all. A previous attempt to audit the FED was narrowly beaten in the Senate. Guys It is very possible it could pass this next vote by the Senate, The FED is scared as Hell
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Damn, should have shorted AZO, thats what you get for thinking, not doing
    1062 is not out of question

  • nirav777
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    I love bread pudding, but I throw a little milk on it.

    BPSPX, I just love when an envelope does its thing!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ab9ac25d6bfbab6acb6858b922d9cf98e1983adcfd9e716281db6cace2d3be4.jpg

    (the ball is in the bull’s court, lets see if they can clear the median!)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    month end, best to not do much.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ARGH, I’m so triggered. Idiot Clinton did the same thing back in the 90’s.

    Who needs a steagall act?, such old fashion thinking.
    https://www.thebalance.com/glass-steagall-act-definition-purpose-and-repeal-3305850

  • Mark Shinnick

    Weight gain by inflammation doesn’t restore heath.
    Make sure no gluten in the breads and go for honey instead of sugar.
    Assure adequate supplements of trace minerals and vitamins, and EFA’s.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice gap fill…maybe some time to cherry pick in here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    You have a point.
    best of all, make changes slowly. The body takes time.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TLT Bonds a nice move today so far and the 10 year yield Yup Down Continued pressure on equities Battle rages between Bonds and Equities There will be a winner Guys
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Its a complex system with a lot of protective buffering.
    Disease can take longer to develop than we might notice because of that, but the system wants to return to less entropy as soon as we can help it.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    CALA Pin action with IBB
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I left some UGAZ on but closed most of it….. see I MOVE markets once again. 15% gain but way smaller position.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have whip marks from the last few presidents too….. They all had their style, Obama liked it slow but steady….. up up up

  • phantomflash

    Mole, the reasons for the cut are mainly that the growth rate is decelerating, and has been for a while – probably mostly due to the drag created by all those tariffs, but helped by employment shortages too much for productivity gains to make up for. The SPX is somewhat artificially propped up by about 5 or 10 heavily-weighted stocks that together, largely control the index, and employment is a lagging indicator.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, May I suggest a Malted Milk shake? when I was thin and could eat anything, I loved those. Have one for me.

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    the drag is a multitude of factors but we are at full employment Feds worry is deflation

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • evilasevildoes

    boil been up too

  • evilasevildoes

    h and S?

  • evilasevildoes

    if it drops below 70 sell also could bounce off of 68 or 50

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi EV Just look at weekly chart $CRB which says it all
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Phantom Keep an eye on new car sales and employment in the retail (stores) sector
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, wait for VWAP – AFTER the Fed announcement 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He didn’t – at least not openly. My point wasn’t about Obama – it was about the Fed. They’ve been extremely dovish since 2008 – no matter which president was in charge. I however do concede that Trump is extremely adamant about low interest rates – which really irks me. And I grant you that without Trump’s statements Powell would not be under such pressure to lower rates now. Which by the way surprises me that he is – after all the Fed started to raise interest rates since his election. What has changed now that the Fed is suddenly under pressure? Seems suspect…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not sure I can find them over here in Spain. What we do have however is really good horchata made from chufas (tiger nuts).

  • Ronebadger
  • Ronebadger

    I’m sure you can get a PROTEIN SHAKE…right?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I did check market breadth recently and albeit elevated did not seem excessive. Otherwise I do agree with you – I should have mentioned the inverted yield curve as a possible reason.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh yeah – I’m having one per day 🙂

  • phantomflash

    Yeah, deflation is definitely a worry – the Fed will bend over backward to try and get out ahead of deflation.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And given that 3-month notes yield more than 10-year bonds the Fed probably doesn’t want to stoke the hornet nest right now. My post was more of an attempt to reset our perspective. Yield inversion or not – we are still skating on thin ice.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The bred pudding is from an organic bakery but yeah – it does have sugar.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It was pretty fast on the way down, pal!

  • HD

    need help w a scalping system? worth a look IMO
    https://twitter.com/MykeSmith/status/1156263042956455937?s=20

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD IMO the best scalping system is the 20/50 trade I have done excellent with it scalping
    JULIE

  • HD

    Not familiar. I know most want a system that looks and sounds fancy. This dude fits that bill.

  • Darkthirty

    Better double up on the protein. You’re old enough that muscle doesn’t grow like it used to……..

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    They might be worried about Europe. There is that little German central bank over there that is having some problems. 🙂

  • HD

    Julie, a few years back I was trading w a guy that could code, engineer, he made a fast scalp system that literally had no price candles on the chart. You simply followed a green or red ‘moving avg’ looking line. Brilliant and worked for a few months. They caught on to us as the script was set in TOS. we bailed on it but I should dig it up just to show you all.

  • HD

    The POS VIX is down 1% on FED day just in case you thought it led.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD The 20 / 50 trade is very simple Whatever your chosen time frame 1 – 2 – 5 – 10 min etc.Set RSI at 20 insert the 50 sma only as not to clutter and keep simple.Go long when price goes up thru the 50 sma with RSI(20) going above 50 The reverse is for a short.Unbelievable how it works HD
    JULIE

  • HD

    That sounds great! There are so many ways to play it. IMO if you’re daily money goals then ES is the best and you only need a few consistent set ups that produce 5 or 10 handles while IV is low. 5 handles on 5 minis is a $trade. No need to get crazy with 50 oscilators etc

  • Darkthirty

    Wednesday ES option expires at 3, lotto ticket straddle….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One thing HD wait for the candle to finish
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    sweet. maybe XLE will follow suite over the next few weeks.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=h1

  • HD

    I always let her finish first 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    {face palm}

  • HD
  • BKXtoZERO

    You talkin bout my baby….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Is the FED announcement 2 pm EDT ? In about 15 min?
    JULIE

  • HD
  • ridingwaves

    China decelleration is probably big part of it….a rate cuts keeps them buying treasuries too, more money….2 100B banks rescued in last weeks is ominous…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Small to mid size tvix on…. Will unload if this pops to 3050

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd called BAL reversed off the 50% retracement lol
    JULIE

  • HD

    25

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    about to step out to LUNCH.

    this chart is not for you Pros, it’s for the mobile guy on the run, at Suuubway.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6aaee22b1f1eb3bd9dae6e3987d9d22ce4ac29a39eda552e324e3cb39621f6a.jpg

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8SSdyflGN4

  • HD

    10 handle hit on the news, fade

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah yeah, play stupid games, get stupid prizes….eventually.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    paper electronic gold boys messing with comex close right now….amazing how they can wiggle out of things…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah – we know this. went to safety a while back.

  • BKXtoZERO

    No VIXNADO sighting yet…. Aaaarg.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    WELL.
    that was quick. big swing on the minutely back to squat.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    “collect the whole set” – supplies limited!
    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/811RNC%2B%2BxmL._SX342_.jpg

  • HD

    bounce right back to VWAP— ‘just a few good set ups’…

  • ridingwaves

    settlment at 1437 and took it down to 1330 electronically….vwap would seem to favor move back up 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    Heading back for the large bag…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah – what was that ascending triangle you and Cyd beat me over the head with??

  • ridingwaves

    and there it is, algo took out all the stops below and now back above it….evil they be….

  • ridingwaves

    in salute of the electro algos of today…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9nkzaOPP6g

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Trying larger intraday tvix 13.3 . see if this rolls over

  • ridingwaves

    GC going to test that high 1447 this am by looks of it….huge fight here
    like Mole and Scott in cage battle

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well when Scott ODd on vitamin supplements and was really sick a year ago….then in that condition it would be a fair fight for Mole in his present condition

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG GLD broke out of a triangle then pulled back to 21 ema It must get above today’s high resistance https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89a59ca0c0624b84d38ba16b55148a1f85874679e78092c3d644d5bff6003ecf.png
    JULIE

  • HD

    Guess that was a .25 cut for authoritarianism. Just saying.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not enough….otherwise we would be at 3050 rt now

  • Darkthirty

    Mole’s got a bigger fight than that going on…….

  • HD

    It’s coming. Comfirmed trump controls it all
    Now.

  • Darkthirty

    Get the jesse smellit special, you get a red hat, clothesline noose, and a tuna sammich w/bleach

  • BKXtoZERO

    IYR up 0.5%…. Not enough…as Jim Morrison said… We want the world and we want it NOW. That is the bulls…. They wanted .5 cut…a few were talking shock and awe .75

  • phantomflash

    I should also note that the Fed often tends to follow the bond market, where rates have been falling for a while now.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Trump will be blaming fall on not enough cut –

  • Darkthirty
  • BKXtoZERO

    I am cancelling my order for large bag of cat food. TVIX heading in the right direction. Retirement back on track. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d198aa6c73db97a97b9a8097728e2980421c0141f4dedbc4b3e5d2a0a59ac81c.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNP Yes A breakout point failure today on “Jack Poop” volume There was a buying climax end of April .then an automatic reaction . Now the secondary test and “Splat”
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    3.3 zone seems like a reasonable objective.

  • HD

    But the VIX?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    mini crash mode – dangerous market – especially for bulls – given where the market is

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK What about kitty litter? lol
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I may need it because if my account gets any greener I am going to wet myself.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Catracho Cyd and I went to cash yesterday in our respective 401 k’s We had 2 of 3 indicators on sell
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yep saw that – shrewd move

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nominal. Pretty low risk trade last couple days so got triggered…maybe end of Summer?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RB $CRB Weekly chart for commodities not good You are correct that the Fed is concerned about deflation
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Very mini, just an expansion of a too-tightened range.

  • Ronebadger

    I was interviewed for this documentary…who knows if I actually made the cut. Who knows who will be broadcasting this…probably some PBS station. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ABlgZbeoO64

  • ridingwaves

    pretty good support but the electronic gold boys have NFP on Friday to further complicate things….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Time to break out all my old favorites….. I let them “Rope -a-Dope” me… but then…..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/97af721c87845ae3fc5cf30d80b9909de8d83054f79ab3fef00ccac7cc81136b.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    spx most likely won’t see under 2885 rest of year….

  • Ronebadger

    The first move after Fed-announcement is supposed to be the wrong way? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21ea340230a1f13b1a58b22a698e61ff4d4a280faa50cae919335cf1cc2d72da.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    cool. which one are you?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB It’s my understanding that it’s the following day ??
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Dang… I was really liking the -50 ES.

  • Ronebadger

    If anyone watches this (I have no idea where/how)…I was interviewed in a patio/lawn chair in my backyard. Tall, skinny guy with white beard. The producer found a Letter-To-The-Editor I wrote about feral cats, so she wanted my take. She’s a feral-cat lover…uhhh, I am not.

  • Ronebadger

    Yeah, I wish there WAS an understanding about this…we’ll see…

  • BobbyLow

    I planned to sit on my hands today anyway. But in hindsight it’s not so funny how I’ve become so preconditioned to massive gyrations on Fed Days that caused me to miss the first short at 3009 because it would have been way to early. Then I would have missed a confirmation short at 2998 because I would be still waiting for price to jerk around and go the other way.

    Definitely a bias going here from the haunting scars of Fed Days past. . .

    Price has now begun to rise again and I wonder if it’ll say we were only foolin by the COB today.

  • RoastBeeph

    Good lord, the volatility after rate decisions is insane.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Automated trading!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    back from lunch, did I miss the fun??

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yep – I was sort coming into this – and reduced it by half – if it had gone the other way would have been stopped out – now taken some off table – waiting – small short

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    there will ALWAYS be other opportunities with less crazy moves! You need nerves of steel to trade today

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    “float like a butterfly sting like a jellyfish!”

  • BKXtoZERO

    Funny because I want to get rid of 2 cats RIGHT NOW. My wife wants to keep 2 of 5 kittens our cat just had because she didn’t listen to me and get her fixed. I have people lined up for tonight

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty

    fuk youse….pay me

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yearly SPX chart.
    looks like price tagged the lower rung. woohoo.

    thank you BPSPX.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13643794676

  • BKXtoZERO

    LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    less than an hour to close.

    you can see where the Bears gave a massive punch intraday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/04440be8d004b1d514db75e4e3de981d4bc49545c7b6c275f8cd265d42918171.jpg

    IMHO, if price can get under the lazy neutral zone, it’s a bear game.
    but this is Month End, hoo-zah.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Look at them Bonds TLT Equities keep dreaming Your days are numbered https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f218850d7ef7908ecb07c399e67004c83dedbe9827533ade7b18b48001844fa.png
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    HEY! I kinda like old cougar tail….

  • Ronebadger

    It’s a “people problem”. PEOPLE let their cats outside…and, mayhem and multiplication ensues. Cats attack birds at my bird-feeder. A cat tangled with my dog once. (How stupid can a cat be; to wander in a yard where a dog has been peeing and pooping for 10 years!) In New York, you must report if you hit a dog with your car…but not a cat. You can kill rabbits, weasels, squirrels, “varmints” etc if they are wrecking your property…but not a cat. They are a first class animal in one sense, but not another.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • HD

    SPICY MEAT a BALLA

  • HD

    That was the (55) point move, wrong direction, surprise

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    wives’ tale, cougar tail. clever.
    +1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    kind of like all my ex-girlfriends
    (GG ducks)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    a small cage, a block of dry ice, and a confined space.
    end of problem.

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51Mfc-R7GNL._SX425_.jpg

  • HD

    3000 is/ was a big deal

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure Catracho. Today is one of those days for the old cliche – “I’d rather wish I was in a trade than wish I wasn’t in one”.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    crazy moves are dangerous for the mind. Luck turns into hubris because you (one) thinks it’s all skill. luck. is. luck.
    best to partition the two!

  • Darkthirty

    You know how an incurable gossip and a gyno at a nursing home are alike?

  • Cyd

    Mr G Tell that https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/43fc717b7b7245da1b6e2829b482807840711588a9e4f2e528e0bc68b2016c43.png WFC CEO fuck I mean flake to deal with this TNX breaks this support last kiss
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    382 retrace………….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Time Check

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    VIX,
    this keeps up, and we may actually hit my secret sauce Median!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p89931375826

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is why I call him Jerome ‘Kryptonite’ Powell.</b

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    right after I tell you not to long while under a 21ema.
    😉
    F*!

  • ridingwaves

    the dollar seems to be breaking out here..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xPU8OAjjS4k

    I’ll skip the Eminem Superman video.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’d probably tie me into a bretzel.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah that’s what is pissing me off so much. It’ll be brutal to gain all that muscle back.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Deutsche Bank is fucked – the Germans are not reporting on it. Expect fireworks later this year.

  • Darkthirty

    Get a pet coyote!

  • BobbyLow

    Fed says that we still have “Muted Inflation”.

    What a crock of shit this is. Every week our food bill is higher. My homeowners, and car insurance premiums continue to increase. The cost of building supplies continue to rise, and almost everything made in China costs more. So please tell me what the fuck in the inflation equation is muted!

  • HD

    you were due! good job

  • Darkthirty

    I dropped from 195 to 175, mostly muscle. Have stretch marks on my biceps, doesn’t come back easy after 55

  • HD

    whatever “potus” LET him say….

  • ridingwaves
  • HD

    pretty heavy sellers into 3000, tomorrow is a new day. See you bright and early
    VIX 15! game on

  • ridingwaves

    lucky not an empanada

  • Darkthirty

    The real bitch is that you can’t fight for fun, serious business when you don’t heal fast! Just blew out the disc between L2-L3 fixing it is gonna be a trip….

  • Ronebadger

    Didn’t end well..right down to the last minute…SPY volume: Up There https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/50efb39a8434b56d3d8515d5ed2c7a0f2c9ad887f13d4a630cfa5697957f7c4b.png

  • ridingwaves

    yikes…doing more fishing than fighting at 55 is key…

  • ridingwaves

    dollar will lead, if its a breakout, the equities down move should have legs….unless some strong dollar – long equities algo churns it

  • Darkthirty

    It’s always been a lie. They came up with a modifier that reduces inflation by adding “options” that reduce the cost… I disremember what it was called. Clinton era, I think

  • Darkthirty

    True, but some people just beg to get smacked! LOL

  • ridingwaves

    Blueberries and Cherries here…
    fish tacos cooked at home…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well Jules, so much for a month end pop.

    probably just a lucky coincident on the close!
    better luck next time.
    ;-D
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e54da32b03396d8eb630898d9ab13389829cd8abdea2bbdd8d1921974ff311a8.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    preach it Bro

  • BKXtoZERO

    More than that…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, that escalated quickly.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG The rally from beginning of June was hope based and they never end well. Also the rally was priced to perfection and any hiccup will derail. The Bond Boys always win in a fight the equity bulls SPX closed beneath it’s 21 ema also which is not good $BKX today bounced off it’s 5 ema BUT again unable to breakout.Talk about a hope based sector the rails $DJUSRR. The rails are the last industry and sector to fall in a bull market and doth proceed .UNP investors are dreaming esp with CSX Today UNP a big dump with huge selling volume the final 10 minutes at 180 resistance which is a change of character as the final 10 minutes have seen a ramp
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I’m of the impression the easy welfare distorts prices. If the grocery had to throw out half their inventory, they’d lower prices. If food wasn’t EBT free for 40% of the population, prices would tank. Kinda like a “free market” where price discovery is by supply and demand. The “stock market” is twisted in the same manner by the fed buying assets to prop up the indexes. Fake markets-fake economic reports- fake tits-fake news- yada yada yada

  • BobbyLow

    Yep it might happened during the “Clinton era” but with lots of help from Republican’s controlling both houses of Congress.

    I think the credit needs to be shared.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/106th_United_States_Congress

  • Darkthirty

    In my opinion they’re all whores

  • Darkthirty
  • Darkthirty

    Cats and teenage girls have the same persona… won’t acknowledge your existence until they want something

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Clarification I am not saying the Bull Market is over I am saying it’s time for a correction
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    as my mother instructed me as a new father.
    ‘Babies poop’.
    😉

  • Ronebadger

    Did anyone mention: “VIX Buy Signal – Step 1” today? (May I mention…that’s SOME big candle you got there!)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/32b576a58d42f1af14dae94f3b22832b406ea699abb66be58572105eb94dec33.png

  • ridingwaves

    fake tits, Orange County memories huh?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    this post is worthless without pics!

  • ridingwaves

    Same shit, 2 different piles
    corpacracy is not kind to us serfs, we work longer for inflating things, chasing instead of saving, debt turned into a good thing, like some kind of dangerous financial oxymoron, we have become wired part of the matrix, just living corpses in our home cocoon, used for taxes, misrepresentation and more taxes while sitting in a line for hours in some 50K mode of transportation to get more juice to feed the house cocoon and power the corpacracy matrix
    dang I need a vacation..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    /ES post mortem.

    I haven’t opened TOS with fan lines, since last week. Am I surprised? not really.
    A Major fan line F2 was hit Tuesday and today was the day.
    Tiiiiiimber.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d7ff4a2636e98bd4e01e787c0b97c8287d722d238aa1e89a7053fcb2bd3046b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Ba’al – I mean cotton.

    Long when the 8 weekly is crossed as well as the fan line, go bullish. IMHO.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4e61d97c947d0a3d29f23855de07b8d030d14095318f2b1fd4f78fa5707768c.jpg

    edit: you could *still* have a false breakout, like last December.
    when it didn’t work? wa-ooosh!

    half of 58 is 29, just sayin’.

  • Darkthirty

    And you looked at her, cocked an eyebrow, and said “No shit?”

  • Darkthirty

    Almost married one that had em, hard as coconuts, and about the same size!

  • BKXtoZERO

    are you rooting long this pile of shite?

  • BKXtoZERO

    what do you mean cat lover??? equities buy?? It didn’t close back inside… you mean buy the VIX? last VIX signal I saw (equities sell) expired

  • Darkthirty

    The only way out is to stop using “their” system. Chitcoin doesn’t cut it due to the monopoly of ownership and if the web is dead so are your “coins”

  • Ronebadger

    I think a civil tone is warranted with your next query

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yeah, just high enough to load up a bear position.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    just razzing you!

  • BKXtoZERO

    you see what I am stuck with here…. I have 3 and am trying to get back to one. My wife is a bit much…. but they are GOING https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e11fc20514bab8da6bc034259677711814e66ad76a813f77fa34abd319fd3a4.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    you better, otherwise.. this is your future.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EYZnSXEla0