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Looking Good!
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Looking Good!

by The MoleJanuary 18, 2019

Per today’s theme: I guess I owed Julie some much needed eye bleach after her bout of nausea and vertigo triggered by yesterday’s featured image. Feel better! Alright our long campaign on the E-Mini is starting to look pretty good now and there may actually be the prospect of finding more meat on this bone. Let’s review:

 

Our trail now advances to ~ES 2600, plus minus depending on when you jumped in. The daily still has room to run until it bumps into resistance.

It’s the long term panel however that has my attention. Note how price is now creeping above both the 100-week and the 25-month SMA.

That’s very good medicine for the bulls because if this level can be defended today then we’ll have a weekly close on the books which may lead into a monthly close > two key resistance levels.

That said, as you can see those moving averages haven’t been touched since most of us were squeezing pimples, which puts their value somewhat into question. But there’s still that rising diagonal on the weekly panel which lines up almost perfectly.

And in terms of retracements we are now near the 50% mark, which is where the bears are expected to start planting a flag in order to stave off a full scale short squeeze.

Gold appears to be a lost cause. Until last night it looked like it was to bust higher after coiling up but at this point a revisit of the 25-day SMA near GC 1276 is likely. Oh well, you can’t win ’em all, but you sure can try! ;0]

Okay, if you will excuse me, I’ve got to spoil my intrepid subs a little:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Brishort

    Thanks Mole for the post.
    The stop on OIL is a little wide to my taste on the daily, but the last recommendation is clearly on the watchlist.

    It would however typically line-up with an equivalent fear event on the equities. It may become a good proxy for an equities turning point down again to revisit how solid the lows indeed are.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    So now that CNBC and many are shouting “Bull market is back” – just to put this into perspective (not saying this will happen ) – rallies of his magnitude are NOT unusual after a fall of 20 % ..this is the 2008 bear move

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01959891a4a9804f3fab8b5b8b821587d809c39c158abd25182af49546f0be18.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Agreed. My thoughts too. Been thinking that this ramp would also have traders come out of safe havens like gold too so I shorted on Monday and its just now moving in my direction….but it did hover a long time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Goldman hedgie.
    *now* you try for a short. still, no guarantees.
    Friday’s can be ‘boring’.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fba0e8c9d343fa5aff4e4b9948cc15aa42a48ed6086fee1bf3617ad1f5c13b80.png
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    Catracho, but why not wait for a waterfall move to begin? why try to front run a wall of worry bull stampede…2008 was a once in a lifetime event, I wasn’t around first the first great depression…heck bear stearns, lehman etc made it thru the first one….no doubt the market could sell down….but the fed with todays consumer reading provides more evidence to back off….

  • Brishort

    Game plan:

    Today being expiry day, the close tends to be in the same direction of the morning expiry that occurred for indexes, Since this morning gapped up, the close should be favorable to calls, hence no turn around expected today.

    Furthermore Monday is MLK, hence markets closed.

    A lot can happen in 72 hours. Tuesday market action at the open could be the move that is telling of what is to come.

    Bottom line: Today continuation of the same upward top seeking levitation is currently expected.

  • strider
  • Ted

    What bothers me is the large gap between the 20 day and 50 day sma.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    seasonality rears its head pretty soon I believe

  • Ted

    Algos exploded in ebullience once again after Bloomberg headlines proclaimed that China has offered to go on a six-year buying spree to ramp up imports from the U.S., in a move that would reconfigure the relationship between the world’s two largest economies, according to officials familiar with the negotiations.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    whoa.
    ebullience?

    the quality of being cheerful and full of energy; exuberance.
    “the ebullience of happy children”
    synonyms: exuberance, buoyancy, cheerfulness, joy, joyfulness, gladness, cheeriness, merriment, jollity, sunniness, breeziness, jauntiness, light-heartedness, high spirits, high-spiritedness, exhilaration, elation, euphoria, jubilation, animation, sparkle, effervescence, vivacity, enthusiasm, zest, irrepressibility, perkiness;

  • Jason13

    Wow, buyers coming in…do not short this.

  • werewolf

    oh dear…people are buying more….where are all the bears now???

  • ridingwaves
  • Jason13

    I’ve come to the conclusion that there really isn’t two competing groups named bears and bulls….its what the powers that be decide to do. That’s a retail mentality. Retail will never, ever outnumber the big boys. Our job is to figure out what “they” are doing and swim in their wake.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep that is what I’m doing – not participating in this – but doesn’t stop me looking at charts!

  • Ted

    So goes January so goes the year or so they say.

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    2727.50 VPOC magnet now 2735.25 due to premium adjustment

    https://youtu.be/hZehFbEvCFU?t=756

  • Brishort

    Time to look at targets for the move.

    P&F always useful in that light. I believe the next chart to be the most useful right now. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86894568906f4dac4af7eefe1d687b71741c20083e3c36dd649b3ba117fe1732.png

    DOW CASH: 24621 is the very strong P&F resistance for this move.
    Therefore a high likely scenario is to place a short stop at 24600 once exceeded and a stop at the then reached previous high.

  • Brishort

    Sorry typo now corrected 24621 is the P&F resistance and 24600 the trigger

  • Brishort

    ZB retest in progress, this one is to be watched closely.
    Mole recommendation above quite strong and a very nice setup

  • Jason13

    Yes I love this set up!!!!

  • ridingwaves

    I get it…not critiquing more musing….

  • ridingwaves

    Took NG long setup again….via BOIL 29.05…thank you opex…

  • Jay Thomas

    “I guess I owed Julie some much needed eye bleach…”
    Hey, that’s Julie 35-25-36 to you, mister.

  • Brishort

    DOW P&F says this is the place to look for the high of the day.

    Next radar to confirm:

    Is VIX 17.25 current low of the day holding?
    is Zero staying below zero and deteriorating?

    Short positions scalp with stop at the day,s high could be in play.
    This may take a little finesse to get, but risk on upside seem limited by DOW 24600 to around 24700, about a 100 points possible shenanigans play

  • Brishort

    DX breakout from downtrend in place since Dec 13, 2018 seems to want to confirm https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f3ed9fe68ee7aa423e32ba7abe61885f69c6a2903c8d9c3644eca6702598134f.png

  • ridingwaves

    textbook cup and handle if such a thing, only concern is momo indicator still bearish, thinking opex is partially responsible there
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1ae1abba628037c38f960b9d0321f51074cdc983b268d3ce4ad5510304f2e35a.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t be jealous 😉

  • Ted

    Am I correct that a three box pullback is normal and would still allow for continued upside?

  • Brishort

    Doing OK. Markets not easy at all but still hanging in there!
    Thanks for post above, last set-up is really worthwhile.
    Wasn’t on my radar, but now is!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m glad you are looking at this from the right perspective. Crude is not an easy contract to be trading and it’s important to not get over leveraged.

  • Brishort

    Yes.

    But the market didn’t behave in “3 boxes” recently. The overhead supply at the current level is enormous. Any 3 boxes reversal may not be supportive of the trend but rather worry some that the overhead supply (at the then 3 boxes reversal level( would be pushing it down to retest the lows.

    The X and O series are much longer and not orderly of a smooth trend with gentle retracements as you can see on the chart.

  • ridingwaves

    zeroedge begs to differ…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Burnt out.
    Half of me is starting to think like Scott.

  • Ted

    Thanks

  • ridingwaves

    have to head up to sonoma and help a friend today, storm took out his long driveway, 5 yards of gravel to put down but wine and lunch is on him…. drinking a 3 tylenol and costa rica brew to knock off the edge beforehand

  • ridingwaves

    why so? work? desert air? Phoenix suns blues…head up to sedona, nature cures all, loved this hike, wish I could have packed in as I saw some cool cliff dwellings and canyons to further explore…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ba5b13b044ccf2d25aa5a6b1011f52ffe0398e3a1744b8cb3becaac4a3d9848.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    takes money my friend.
    something which I am in short supply of.
    if only I had a Chinese wife. thrifty people can they be.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    This could go on for several years.
    the credit pumps were slowly turned off, clear to see someone hit the GO button.

    I’ll be lurking. but it’s time to go quiet. Figure out what the archons want from me.
    Maybe I can just plug back into the Matrix and enjoy my ‘bread and circuses’.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ace652a04f527b629b9ef3776a1b3f40f37f7bb98bf6cdaa1f5449864ffdf842.png

  • ridingwaves

    I guess you missed crazy rich asians…I turned her into a budget shopping star…..she never looked at prices in a grocery store until we met…..

    we use the bread and butter routine, you can survive without the second….

  • Ted

    That will be tough for you to do. LOL

  • strider

    Big blocks SVXY and TVIX in the last hour.

  • Jason13

    There are other great markets to trade. When I’m flat indexes, I just look elsewhere. Currencies are fun at a time like this.

  • Jason13

    Doing great, thanks.

  • Jason13
  • ridingwaves

    thank u mm’s for making this so damn easy…such a great setup but crickets in the lair..

  • ridingwaves

    the fed will raise one time this year, the QE runoff is like adding .50basis points or more to rates…..420 billion so far, another 1.6 trillion to go before normalization against demand rate for currency

  • BKXtoZERO

    Not very spiffy Sir…. I was expecting a good bounce but I expected 2600-2650. The bollingers opened up much wider. I had been anticipating a possible strike into this current area as they WERE alligned, maybe 17 VIX and 42 TVIX but now they opened to the point where that 2.0 bollinger won’t be hit til much lower. I was building a position starting at 48. then 45.7. I was planning to add more when/if we hit the lower 2.0 Bollinger band but bow I may think about just dumping half or more. VIX also lost it’s uptrend line. You were right! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3d629b0a4d4543167aeee8ed17ce6cfbdbf32a817f565546ef3e98961cba76c2.png

  • zzezzezz
  • Brishort

    Looks like it. Your channel mimics a few equivalents I have on other charts.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…that’s more-or-less my own model for all this….had to somehow devastate the early shorts.

  • Jason13
  • Jason13

    Well the last time I agreed with Zerohedge….oh wait…I haven’t….ever.

  • ridingwaves

    not pointing at you, notice how voodoo zeroedge time to panic is silent….because he is panicing…..hopefully he didn’t get anyone to follow his fortune telling….BXK was following along and I was praying he didnt….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Tryng some TVIX (again) 42.8, intraday only. I am not adding and holding any more unless we get some bonafide looking reversal. Crazy, biblical MKT

  • ridingwaves

    why?…..how much are you down right now? VIX is going to 16.7…..its below the 100 on hourly, maybe a push to 100 and then defcon 5….

  • Sp00nman

    I’m the idiot who shorted too early but hanging tight for now. Definitely sitting through some pain.

  • Sp00nman

    You doing that by shovel/wheelbarrow? You’re a good friend! With two guys that’s a good workout but not horrible. I put down 5 yards of dirt for landscaping and it’s quite a workout. 😀

  • Sp00nman

    Ya quite the bull stampede.

  • ridingwaves

    I hope it works out for a fellow guitar jammin man…I will say a little prayer for you while shoveling gravel… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af52d505ff0869b9cf4d6fd721650462671b2db697b531c9a617ab684acefe6b.png

  • Sp00nman
  • ridingwaves

    yep, thus the tylenol….we have a third…..but its a long driveway….

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    boy was it anchored in a few here…..like a cruise ship anchor……
    keep your eyes on OMER and AVXL down here…..news driven year for both….

  • Sp00nman

    Haha, I personally prefer advil. You know another option is pick up a “helper” at 7 eleven or HD. I’ve done that before too. 😉 Hopefully you don’t have to go uphill..

  • ridingwaves

    we do have to head up hill, I already pay to many taxes on those HD workers here, to labor is to cleanse…….hard work, works…

    took out 3600 ft of spanish tile in Huntington Beach mansion one time, hired 3 of them for jack hammering the floor, could have landed a 747 on it, after watching for a minute me and friend took that over and had them hauling it out….they were not good at it…

  • maxcherry

    i’m out of those calls today

    maxcherry • 11 days ago
    a move above 2600 +- opens the door to 2700
    i’m holding 2700 strike calls

  • Ted

    NICE!!!

  • Ted

    What effect will this have? Note it”s the year of the Pig. perhaps it will be “red pig down”.
    https://chinesenewyear.net/

  • ridingwaves

    great trade….here’s wishing you continued trading success in 19….

  • maxcherry

    thanks, i thought it would pull back a little before getting up towards 2700 but they were cheap enough i could risk holding, which is why i like trading options over stocks or futures

  • TimeToPanic

    Afternoon all.

    Added another batch of QQQ 144 puts at 165.9, nearly the tippy-top. Man, they were so cheap!
    That’ll be it though.

    I think today was it, and that we’ll close red and gap down next week. Bull trap, love it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Terrific recent crosscurrents in here like with Gartman’s noting of complacency in the bear, $ strength,; all a fascinating mix.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Three soldiers pattern on SPX weekly suggests otherwise
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp

  • Ted

    You may have just nailed the top. I’m seeing cracks here.

  • TimeToPanic

    A cup and handle has the handle bit up at the same level as the rim of the cup,
    You know, like with a real cup with a handle. They don’t have little handles at the bottom. No need to thank me!

  • TimeToPanic

    P& F is voodoo magic though.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Avg price on daily hold is 46.8. Amount lost is far less than amount gained trading it last year but the idea is not to give it back.

  • TimeToPanic

    Dude, you have a vivid imagination (and frankly, you’re a ****).
    I’ve been out with clients all day, and just got home.
    Zero panic here,added more puts.

  • ridingwaves

    I do admit your funny ttp, I’m printing money as we speak..I know what they are, being facetious, great setup that horrible traders like me take….wait until next week….

  • Sp00nman

    Oh I completely agree with regard to hard work. It seems like a lot of the younger generations are scared of it and avoid it like the plague.

  • TimeToPanic

    Seasonality has been working well these past 6 months.
    Or has it been the polar opposite.
    Do your own research, or listen to bulltards, your choice.

  • ridingwaves

    its not last year….you can’t use bb’s on a 3x daily reset symbol…..best to use momo only…

  • TimeToPanic

    Spot on cat.

  • maxcherry

    short term, maybe, but i think the bottom is in

  • Ted

    I agree

  • Jason13

    Wow. From CNBC,
    Federal workers who aren’t being paid during the shutdown owe $438 million for housing for this month alone.

  • Sp00nman

    What amazes me is how people who make decent money live paycheck to paycheck. I know an old coworker who was waiting on a paycheck to cover the mortgage for the month. Of course they have a nice bimmer to drive. I guess the old rule of thumb of 3-6 months reserve fund is a thing of the past. Insane to me.

  • Jason13

    Agree…..serious Western illness, to have money and not save it….any of it.

  • TimeToPanic

    The evil ones have encouraged usury and do not use honest weights and measures (i.e. currency is devalued). Temptation is everywhere, few can resist.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Drive safely!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not sure what exactly you were trying to do here but for future reference: always wait for price confirmation. It’s silly to go long IV when the equities are heading higher. Plus yeah – 57% of the time IV drops along with equities, so you are pushing against a string here when equities are advancing.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX into an upper trend line of rising wedge and pulling back
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    hey Mole, I love ya and all you do for the rats, heading out but will be silent for a while here, new position starts monday…thanks again for hosting a great place, I’ll chime in at night….keep an eye out for the zeroedge keyboard warriors that have floated over into the lair, zero setups, conjecture and trying to lead others off the cliff……banking cash on setup this morning below…..go NG…next week 0-35 below in many eastern areas…

  • ridingwaves

    you’re not really good at this, best to head back to Zeroedge….I doubt if you would say that to me in person, it would most likely end up very ugly for you….keyboard warriors are funny though….small men acting large…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Tough love below:

    Scott is a completely different story. He’s an advanced trader with vast capital. You on the other hand insist on cooking your own recipe and calling swings without sitting down and doing the hard work that both Scott and I have asked you to do. Like running stats and searching for valid edges.

    Many people have come here over the years and made fun of my conservative approach. But ask yourself this: where are those mofos now? I’m still here going strong putting up setups on a continuous basis, which largely get ignored.

    This place is a waste of time for Scott who is already a professional and accomplished trader commanding huge bank. And it’s only a waste of time for YOU if you keep ignoring what’s being taught and instead continue to go the easy route, which is top/bottom calling.

    Scott has repeatedly offered you to help over the past few years, assuming of course you are willing to sit down and work out an edge/system that works for your type of trading. That was a super generous offer and I myself have always stood by to help. Did you take us up on that offer? I don’t remember that you did, but correct me if I’m wrong.

    What I see you doing instead is something completely different. So you may want to meditate on that over the long weekend.

  • M E

    so did I!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not to defend that but ZIRP didn’t exactly encourage saving as it’s a losing proposition with 2.25% inflation per year. Not that most people run the math – LOL 🙂

  • Ted

    It could stay within the wedge all the way up to 2760.

  • TimeToPanic

    >keyboard warriors are funny though

    Yeah, I laughed at your first little salvo, and I still find it amusing that (for reasons unknown) you have a special place in your heart for me, it makes me feel special to be honest. I offered a peace pipe over Christmas, but guys like you can’t help yourself, once a *** always a ***. Too much mixing with Chicoms maybe, they’re all ultra-sensitive to others’ views:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e99398abb6a5afa0e117b3cf9ba867eae260b9fec24e32ef5024172e16206ec9.png

  • Sp00nman

    That’s why you put it into the market in index funds and let it ride. Easy Money. 🙂

  • Jason13

    That’s a good point. But it is a disease to consume before paying off debt. Debt service ratios are horrendous here in Canada.

  • BKXtoZERO

    No… I use that on VIX itself

  • TimeToPanic

    Mole, do you really truly believe that you way is the sole way to trading success? Serious question. I would hazard a guess that GG is doing nicely with his trading, based on his caution.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted This rally is stronger than I thought it would be .. I am pretty good at tape reading …. Yesterday before the Wall Street Journal B.S. SPX was just starting to roll over meeting the objective of the minor ascending triangle. They knew it and used the WSJ as a stick save. The Treasury denied the report. Who knows what the real truth is.Today a follow up on the B.S.
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    You’re all going to miss the ’87 repeat.

  • TimeToPanic

    You just know when the bulls are taunting those who are short that the end is nigh Julie. We’ll have the last laugh when there’s a sell-off into the close and a huge gap down next Tuesday (I think the US markets are closed Monday). It’s a perfect bull trap, fake as can be.

    (Edit, do not look back to 29th January 2018).

  • Ted

    Yup lets hope it’s a pump and dump.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted when they take profits it will be fast and furious . I am down approx 3.2% on a small position i.e. a probe and a small addition.I read a comment below that I am really in trouble losing my butt per your observation of being taunted LOL! I made a ton on UNG and some other trades previous LOL!
    JULIE

  • Ted

    QQQ’s have lost vwap. IWM about to test it.

  • TimeToPanic

    Red close ahead Ted.

  • Ted

    I don’t understand. Did I taunt you somewhere? I did mention the New Year as the Year of the Pig, meaning you may just get what you’re expecting.

  • TimeToPanic

    Well, the pattern suggested a rally back in late December, but it has no bearing on where said rally will terminate, so I am not sure of your point at all.

  • Sp00nman

    TTP, I don’t see the bulls/longs taunting anyone here. They’re merely expressing their opinion (through their lens) that those who got short were early and it’s not a good trade. I’d say a “difference of opinion.”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No it was not you ….. The Chief replied to him LOL! I can take anything.This rally is common in Bear Markets per Jason’s chart yesterday pointing out in 100% of cases such as this the low has been retested. Again Ted as pointed out high volume highs and lows are usually retested
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    There has been taunting galore dude. Go read the past few days.

  • Ted

    One lesson and one virtue I must pound into my head. Mole constantly preaches the first: “Let your winners run”. The virtue is Patience.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted Patience is what I have. I have mentioned many times I do not run scared. As you have probably noticed I enter with a probe and then add. Patience is definitely required with a short
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Vix almost back to flat for the day (Edit, vix up 0.25% in 3 minutes, here go the Boyz buying vol) (edit 2, vix up 0.5%, 0.25% in 20 seconds). Big tech names lagging the NQ. SPX, do you feel lucky? USD perking up.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d841d864c29b76aa3d1ccdce5a83579ca1726eb54c0a26038de7d0eea45f466f.png

  • Ted

    What you need being short is for the U.S. dollar and the Australian dollar to fall against the Yen.

  • TimeToPanic

    GG, missing you already bud. How do I contact you, email?

    In your absence….dinner time for me: beef sausages!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX Let’s see next week … It’s Friday which are neutral to positive …. Come next week Watch $BKX esp now RSI almost 70 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c114c38842675bafc7b8bb0565bb331a8705632d3ec00c7892f0a27d5bd9491c.png

  • Ted
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TVIX scalp 44.15 from 42.8

  • evilasevildoes

    exackereee daquiree

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – everyone enjoy the long weekend!! 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like today’s the big exit. Sorry to see you go dormant again. Thanks for the contributions and drop by every once in a while!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Chief You have a great weekend too !
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    I will bet a beer 2666.66

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Just stating the pattern. I dont see any evidence of this being the top. We might get an obligatory pull back , make room on RSI, and proceed higher.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Patience ! Love it ! As mentioned in post below SPX intraday charts pulling back at top of trend line rising wedge JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/655056abff552b070b659c3f3fb556d6a6c28b2d8e7d10529c3e79e9bd97dd8c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie has the rat signal.
    Shine it at Spring Equinox.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • TomW4

    Patience is running thin Julie 🙁 It’s just that everyday is a green for the past couple of weeks.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Tom Don’t abandon ship … Profit taking coming .. !
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    Hope so @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus !!! 😀 Have a great weekend!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You too Tom
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My way is ONE way to trading success. And honestly between me and Scott we cover pretty much the gamut. You know my work and you decide whether or not it offers you value.

  • evilasevildoes
  • Jason13

    So on the economic news front we have Chinese 4Q GDP and US markets closed on Monday….ummmmm. You didn’t hear that from me. Do with it what you will.

  • Darkthirty

    Teach her to shoot-dress-butcher, you’ll be eating like a king

  • Jason13

    Trading sentiment from DailyFX..traders have been net short since 2549…the very definition of a take it up the ass squeeze. Alotta hurting accounts out there. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05029fbbb372cd37323ea164f7dd7d61d9a149420390cff1451bb190488e2c15.jpg

  • evilasevildoes

    spy 1 min jus tforecasted 239 on pnft

  • Jason13

    Problem is “profit taking” might mean a one or two day pullback and not enough drop to get most to breakeven. See above.

  • evilasevildoes

    QQQ 160 put

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’ll split the difference with you.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …take it up the ass Tuesday open 🙂

  • BKXtoZERO

    How so? Thanks

  • TimeToPanic

    SPX took 2 weeks to lose 340+ points in early 2018. Will it now do the same again, maybe a bit more. How many were expecting it back then? How many now? Look at the channel.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3cb5a09efd9aba408ef260a64c71ef5cc10a3e6614a25a0e57e733f41265192e.png

  • Ted

    Looking at the monthly chart recent times remind me of the fall of 2015 and start of 2016. Not much of a pullback back then.

  • TimeToPanic

    Voodoo magik.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Bear market rallies can be very strong. Designed if not to take you out then to wear you out. Strong Bear Mkt rallies can go to the weekly 21 ema/s or daily 89 ema. SPX at 89 ema and top of squeeze per chart below Everyone Have A Great Holiday Weekend
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Have a nice break Julie, weird time of year to have a long weekend.
    I hope the gap down isn’t too large on Tuesday so you can grab some more shorts.

  • TimeToPanic

    OK.

    If I see you here Sunday, I’ll pop a disappearing comment up with a way you can contact me. Enjoy the break.

  • Darkthirty

    .02 interest on savings accounts?

  • TimeToPanic

    >Just stating the pattern

    >Three soldiers pattern on SPX weekly ‘suggests otherwise’

    You are confused over what you write my friend. Sadly, I fear the market will not get many back in the green, see you at 2300 in a couple of weeks.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Honestly all I have been hearing is SHORT SHORT SHORT from the lows. Yeah this may fall apart next week but why not take the coin on the way up? I’ll never wrap my mind around that mindset.

  • Jason13

    Agree. Although I didn’t get as much as you did on the way up, I did cash in a couple of longs and when my short set up didn’t pan out, I got out almost as fast as I got in and moved on to another market. Like you said, being flat with money in your account is a position.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Your close red call didnt work, so not sure who;s confused here. Anyway, good luck. Not here to argue, only here to state setups.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Good for you. Treat yourself this weekend and then it’s back to work on Tuesday!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ya Mole….I actually went long oil but early and became cautious shorting again early. Then I succumbed to the long list of bearish evidence and sold crude early. I have just been 180 out of phase. It comes back to me playing turns which I used to get chewed out here about. Choppy volatile MKTs treated me well but I missed the que to trending. I agree it just amazing how out of sync I became. Most here are trend followers and their losses and frustrations were my gravy. Now the trends up and down have just been biblical. Very hard to trade for me. Volatilty makes things easy as you can fade almost any move anywhere and win. Trading as you do is the right way.

  • TimeToPanic

    Nonsense Mole. I think maybe two of us got a bit short around 2500, our bad, and that is it. Three/four of us in total are actually short now, probably only me to any great degree.

    I am delighted for longs that have banked coin, why do you and others feel the need to attack those who are prepping for the next leg down? I’ll never get that mindset either. More than one way to skin a….can’t say cat, as I have two, I’ll go for hippo.

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • Sp00nman

    I think the logic is that going long in a bear market (assuming we are/were in one) is going against the trend. Clearly, the bounce/new bull market/whatever you wanna call it has been one helluva move, and it looks like there were too many bears that have been short and thus we’ve had a monster squeeze.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Keep SPX in perspective Presently a Bear Market rally. Now as I have stated high volume lows and highs are usually retested and if lows are retested on less volume Bullish. The February dump was a high volume low then a strong rally like now and retested on less volume. Also the February dump did not go below it’s 200 sma and there was not a 50 sma 200 sma crossover to the downside. Also a very important upper downtrend line from the channel was breached significantly. HD in a monthly chart presented showing a monthly MACD signal line crossover to the downside.The pattern from the December 26 rally is a bearish rising wedge in a Bear Market. This rally is doing what it is intended to do Goad the Bulls thinking the correction is over. Wall Street is excellent in BS talking the market up. The declining volume SPY except for the last two days is distribution.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ecb80fac5e5e1ca8e6c9ca397dfc497bd6c3e452ca0a80517792d812ed315531.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Saw some options stats on a Twitter tweet…20% put/call now on equities. Quick turnaround from late December.

  • Goldenbeachbum

    What if wedge gets broken to upside which negates pattern and market continues to move to upside? SP has recaptured all of the low prints over the past year which should have acted as stiff resistance. Now becomes support so maybe a pullback of 2-3% to test those prior lows and continuation higher. MA’s are starting to turn as well which is positive. Breadth thrusts over past month historic reversals of previous month. Markets become positive again at some point and this down move could be over. Not saying you are wrong but I think you have to keep an open mindset about price action IMHO.

  • werewolf

    I know i was being sarcastic as this room is full of doomsayers and preachers. At least I know I know nothing. and Nothing is for certain…Been burnt many times predicting!

  • Jason13

    Reminder that the movie Brexit:The Uncivil War is on HBO tonight. Looks good.

  • TimeToPanic

    The three previous rallies all failed, and they took out these ‘low prints’ you mentioned and more. Lower highs, lower lows, it’s not rocket science.

    Just look at the volume, it’s fake as fake can be.
    Moon cycle inverted, just like in late January 2018.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3322f8deaeda0ce064593d9c7d2b5bb57780c251072e9a42dd8ea7e133289b61.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP the last two days closing $TICK negative suggesting a poor close. NYSE Advance – Decline this week less than previous week $TRIN 5 sma @ 87 (80 and less is bearish) $CPC Friday @ 0.84 (less than 0.80 bearish).News for the Bulls if they don’t expect profit taking and a pullback
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    My point went over your head, so I’ll be explicit:

    You pattern was correct. That rally is now over, so your point was incoherent, as I was talking about NOW, not 4 weeks ago. Good luck in the next 2 weeks.

  • TimeToPanic

    Message for GG: I just bought a Chromebook, Acer 11, only 200 quid, screen looked nice, think it’ll be ideal for holiday trips, thanks for the tip.

    Also, I have discovered something really very interesting this weekend. I want to share it, but not publicly here. So, if you want to know what I discovered, give me a follow on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/I_dont_know_but

    Or fill in the contact form at my website Monetary Perspectives com.

    I hope to hear from GG especially, Ted, Jason, Mole, Julie, Evil, Max, HD, BKX especially. If you’re a regular contributor, feel free to get in touch. With just one exception.

    The info I have is simply some more specifics on past/present analogues, what Mole would call ‘voodoo magic’, but really isn’t. NB, I am not doing this for business reasons, but I only want to share with folk that share themselves, not the peanut gallery.

    Mole, you posted a point & figure chart a few weeks ago with a bearish price objective of ( I think) somewhere in the 1800s, I wondered if that projection is dead now. I don’t understand P&F, let alone the projected levels.

    Next two weeks are going to be amazing to behold. Good luck.

  • Jason13

    I just hit follow

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    XOP A pullback now fib time zone 34 periods Current period Friday day 18 Approx 16 periods remaining and a pullback would align nicely with a 50% pullback at approx 34 day backtesting a; broken upper down trend line. XOP now overbought up into 55 ema ; fib arc; fib fan line ; upper Keltner Channel and 38.2% retracement. If a pullback at this target area going to watch momentum and selling volume for a possible entry JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1c513268b68b652971f767d5fa5e2ad3ea867accb8e49971077f3a2182d1dad.png

  • TimeToPanic

    Got ya.

  • TimeToPanic

    If you follow on Twitter, drop me a PM, I’ll PM back with the info.

  • Darkthirty

    Fake tits are sad, mmm kay?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks for chiming in, Scott. Quite honestly I’ve been posting about these basic truths on a recurring basis but it’s starting to feel like I’m pushing on a rope.

    The comment section recently makes me thing I’m reading Zero Hedge and I am increasingly encountering a hostile tone that makes me consider using the ban option. Which is the last thing I want to do (free speech and all) but a few regulars have written me privately stating that they have stopped visiting because of the blatant and growing bias and hostility here.

    And quite honestly nobody pays me for having arguments with strangers on the Internet. Fact is that many of the most vocal people here are actually not subscribers. And clearly it’s my subs that I need to spend most of my energy on as they are the ones that are keeping this site alive, and have done so for over a decade.

  • Jason13

    Anyways on a lighter note. Brexit Movie. Fan. Tas. Tic. Really enjoyed it and educational as well.

  • Jason13

    Back to potentially relevant info now. This chart shows an interesting correlation. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/334369412032c8ef165b38d4161a9c1ccc8f7940ec88c9c60ae9c738a7503560.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Girls like that always make me wonder how she looks like without the bleach and all that silicone.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Look up spurious correlations. Either way you would need a LOT bigger sample set by the way.

    You guys need to start studying basic statistical concepts. I’m getting pretty tired of pointing this stuff out as nobody seems to be listening. One day I’ll just stop and start caring.

  • Jason13

    Bigger sample. If you want to alienate everyone on the board, btw, just keep going…and I’m a sub. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/abf09090a0cc642c70efb244bb6463cedbdc9460465e3eb440d8548c2c69f2b8.jpg

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Alienate by disagreeing and offering truths? Soooo… you are a sub because you want me to tell you what you want to hear?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If you research what I am talking about then you will quickly find out that spurious correlations happen when people think that two series are correlated when they are in fact NOT. Our brains are very easily fooled, which is something I realized when diving deeper into quant concepts.

    I wasn’t saying that you are wrong. What I propose is that you run a correlation test. Which is easily done. Here’s a detailed guide:

    https://www.quantopian.com/posts/quantopian-lecture-series-the-good-the-bad-and-the-correlated

    By running a covariance and correlation test you’ll quickly find out if in fact there is one. And then you know.

  • Jason13

    No, alienate by insulting and patronizing. I welcome disagreement but without the snark. You ask people to try and contribute on the board and not stay back and leech. I’m trying to do that. I’m a sub because I’m of the opinion that the Zero indicator is a brilliant piece of work and it helps me trade better. I absolutely do not want you to tell me what I want to hear since I myself don’t know what I want to hear. Last I checked, I was a grown ass fucking adult with some experience at this, trying to be better.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It seems that many here increasingly interpret my attempts at educating them as being insulting, which is a new development. You should have come here a few years ago when I was repeatedly kicking people in the ass and they thanked me for it 🙂

    This is Evil Speculator and I call it as I see it. I posted some important context below but I have not seen you respond to what I offered. Perhaps put your ego aside, run a test and prove me otherwise?

    AGAIN, I’m not getting paid arguing with you about this. I could just keep my mouth shut and enjoy my day off. Would be easier and I wouldn’t risk losing a sub over some stupid disagreements.

    Ask yourself why I’m so passionate about this in the first place and if I perhaps may just have a point. It’s easy to get emotional when someone challenges your beliefs in public, I get that. But as traders we need to accept the fact that we are wrong ALL THE TIME. I may be as well, so prove me wrong.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BTW, if you can export the two series above into a CSV file then I can run a test for you. But it would be a good exercise to do it yourself 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You could also just run a scatter test. I wrote a post on that a while ago:

    https://evilspeculator.com/quantutorial-linear-regression/

  • Jason13

    Please don’t mistake “emotional” with just plain ole standing up for myself. I’m capable of separating the message from the messenger and I’m not planning on canceling my subscription over this little “spat”. So if you recall, awhile back, you spoke at lengths regarding liquidity crunch issues that were impacting the tape. Does the two charts I posted not speak to that? I was not posting them to insult your statistical ego, nor was I posting it to tell people what to do with it, I found it on another source (I use many in my trading) and thought it may be of value to some here….as a FYI. You pointing out emotionality and challenging beliefs and my ego are issues of bedside manner not of the topic at hand. My responding was in kind.

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks for that post. I’m relatively new around here and was reading back through some of your old posts and found them very interesting. I know Mole said he was going to come out with some videos in the future and I will be very interested. I like the idea of having a systematic approach to trading as it takes some of the emotions out of it. If there’s any notion I’ve long disposed of it’s “being right.”

  • Jason13

    Actually how bout running a Pocock analysis just on the first chart alone to see if a p value of <.05 might suggest that global bank sheets or liquidity may have a statistical significance to what happened to market price thereafter?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    P-value – now we are talking. 5% is sufficient to rule out the 0 hypothesis. I have never run a Pocock analysis. Why would you prefer that one over a simple correlation test?

    Either way – if you can establish there is a correlation then we are on to something. Next question is how to trade it? And in what time frames, which actually affects traders more than they think.

    It’s one thing to know that money policy correlation with equities, but then the question remains if there is a delay, and how to account for that.

    Most likely you end up taking entries on a daily chart, not on intervals below. Which means wider stops and less in/out – plus it also requires holding through deep retracements.

    So in reality not an easy system to trade IMNSHO. On its own that is. If you can combine that with purely technical alpha factors then that makes a big difference as it only looks at economics from a pre-filter perspective.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well you insinuated that I had insulted you and I don’t remember doing so. You should know by now that I do not mince my words and I’m actually much more diplomatic than e.g. Scott (see his featured comment), which I’m sure many people would take offense to.

    I didn’t start this blog to tiptoe around people’s feelings, not my job. I’m trying to get everyone here from blowing up their accounts. That’s been my mission over the past decade and I have a mailbox full of testimonials from people who have thanked me for doing so.

    Perhaps you want to give me the benefit of the doubt and simply focus on the message I’m trying to convey.

  • Jason13

    Absolutely, I can give you the benefit of the doubt if you’ll entertain the idea that more and more people will not post to avoid the potential threat of being made to feel stupid and patronized.

  • Jason13

    You and I are in agreement here. A chart like that is really a hind sight lag-type of FYI….if only we were to get the info beforehand.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Some people have that level of access. Unfortunately most of us only become aware after the fact.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have zero control over people’s feelings, Jason 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was catching up with Tim Knight and he told me that one of his most prolific contributors, BDI, died last year from a rare form of cancer. Within a few months he was dead, it apparently was too late by the time they found out.

    I remember BDI and if I’m not mistaken he contributed here as well back in the old days. A real shame and I thought some of you senior guys who remember him would like to know.

    https://slopeofhope.com/2018/11/the-final-blow.html

  • Jason13

    It, at least, provides evidence that more is involved in tape moving than lunar or solar cycles.;)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Again we agree. Must be my lucky day 😉

  • tradem4alpha

    Sorry to hear that. A real loss.

  • TimeToPanic

    Tim Knight is that perma-bear chartist guy? Used to visit his site.

    Full moon and eclipse last night, all over the world people are starting to feel negative and panicky. Ancients recognised this, some modern folk don’t.

    Good luck to those short here.

  • TimeToPanic

    Hello Mole.

    This was a fun little comment section where many folk shared thoughts and charts and had some fun. It’s clear that that’s not what you want in our comment section, and it’s yours, so that’s fine. I’ll certainly depart. I wonder would you permit me to share a link to an old blog I used to contribute to, which I can fire up again, so that the small group of non-subs who are chartists can stick together and have the same sort of banter and help one another? That is what you want after all, and we can all part on good terms, and your subs can use the comments section to discuss your methods, and not get upset by reading stuff thay don’t want to read. It’s all very sad.

    As for Scott’s comment: tl;dr, too much foul language, classless.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s part of Scott’s charm I’ve come to trust because its sincere 🙂 This blog is a much bigger umbrella than our bias’es sometimes allow us to appreciate. Its stronger when you are here, very adroit charting skill is vital because strict systems methodology is its own bias.

  • TimeToPanic

    >That’s part of Scott’s charm I’ve come to trust

    There are ladies present.

    >This blog is a much bigger umbrella than our bias’es sometimes allow us to appreciate.

    I’m not being funny, but I don’t understand your point above at all.

    >Its stronger when you are here.

    Who do you mean by ‘you’?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seriously? Maybe caught you in a low point of some sort?
    -Human honesty isn’t sexist.
    -I know you might not understand…that why the point.
    -Your own statement: I’ll certainly depart.

  • TimeToPanic

    I’m a direct writer/reader Mark, I struggle with obtuse comments, and I’m not sure why you even ask me about me being low?

    Sexism is a made up leftist construct. There are ladies present, they may not like to read a barrage of needless expletives.

    Of course I’ll depart, as Jason mentioned above and Mole stated, his paying customers are upset (tears maybe) at reading a view of the world that makes their little Chicom-loving head hurt. It’s the Chicom way, stamp on views they don’t like. Mole has hinted at the ban hammer, it’s his blog, I am not going to share my ideas/views/charts on a blog where that is the response from the blog owner. So I’m grateful for your comment, but come on, Mole likes it his way, or he gets upset:

    >’and I am encountering an increasingly hostile tone that makes me consider using the ban option’

    Boo hoo. best example of gaslighting I’ve seen in a long while, ban the people who are ‘hostile’. I can read anything written about me and just smile or ignore it. Not Mole, not his cronies. So I am off.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’s an old friend of mine – we go way back. I tried to cure him of his perma-bearish affliction on numerous occasion but to no avail, at least back when it counted. Great chartist but not lousy trader (which he himself admits to readily). Well, if you are right then his time may have come – he has waited long enough. We shall see.

  • TimeToPanic

    Come on Mole, don’t just ignore this request please.
    Let’s deal with this like men shall we, sort it out, and move on. Thanks.

  • TimeToPanic

    >It seems that many here increasingly interpret my attempts at educating

    them as being insulting,

    Mole, I don’t know if you read Vox Day’s blog. But you should. He would categorise you as a gamma male, me too, this post and others on the subject will enlighten you, and I hope you can change:

    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-joy-of-gammas.html

    From the blog post:

    Now that I better understand them, I really, truly, and
    sincerely hate gammas. If you’re a gamma reading this, please understand
    that offering unsolicited advice and criticism is something that
    you should never, ever, do. That habit is one of the primary reasons
    that people not only don’t like you, but actively avoid your company. If
    you want to be more popular, then excise the words “should”, “need”,
    and “seem” from your vocabulary. Never, ever, use them.’

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just reminded myself of Evil Speculator rule #65: Don’t debate trolls, there’s no upside plus they enjoy getting dirty.

    Good riddance – I hope he won’t be back.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Here. I actually was the one repeatedly kicked in the ass and remain repeatedly THANKFUL for it.
    My account equity is thankful too. Lol

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole that guy on the post picture is a little too good looking….. please switch back to fat guys so I can feel better

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX Let’s see what happens Tuesday at confluence of the weekly 21 and 55 ema’s and resistance JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ba4ada352b4c0b065ca694aab9e061dde42da5b6846da46a21a6f99c283cc9e.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hi Julie….. We made honorable mention in Scott’s post above. (me, you and Gerb) I personally like your charts and TA but even with ALL known inputs, I never base too much on it. I do admit to a purely discretionary style of trading as Scott alludes to above but what I found is that it is all stops and money management anyway…. Because anyone’s system is about 50/50 unless you are Mole, then you are 65-35. I think his view of us being carried out on a stretcher is a bit much. You mention “probes” and adding if/ when certain levels are met. You sound conservative. I don’t make crazy bets anymore…. I don’t know about Gerb but he also preaches never go full “tard”. So as long as position sizing isn’t too large and you have stops we shall be fine….. maybe not the “best” but not carried out on a stretcher.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK … My system is just fine and works for me.I have had a great year (2018) and so far with the decline since October doing exceptionally well.The only trade that I have missed with SPX is the ramp the last several weeks and prepositioning several days ago with a short probe and a very small addition.I feel honored to be mentioned along with you and GG. Made my day. This next week should IMO telegraph a market direction
    JULIE

  • HD

    Futes down 20 and it looks like Mole turned his site into a pissing match, again. Belittling any system that isn’t his. How many “lottery tickets” LONG did you try to buy during the Dec. crash?
    So what are the actual stats for that system….. lol 1:5

  • HD

    They have products to sell. Simple as that. They see people like you making 100% a year on volatility and im sure it stings them a little. Just saying.

    Keep doing what works! That’s all that matters.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have to admit that I was going to ask him if his thinking during that period was not unlike mine in bucking and fighting a trend, BUT….. I didn’t ask. He knows more than I will ever know and has been successful long term as well as generous, That said, I agree! That struck me as odd.

  • BKXtoZERO

    thanks!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK You have a thought out plan and you trade the plan. If wrong not wrong long which you adhere to. Perfect BK
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Good riddance to Blue Monday -! Judging by the commentary yesterday – seems to be a real phenomenon!
    https://youtu.be/9GMjH1nR0ds
    “Blue Monday is a name given to a day in January claimed to be the most depressing day of the year. The concept was first publicised as part of a 2005 press release from holiday company Sky Travel, which claimed to have calculated the date using an equation. Wikipedia”
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/67ec38b04503e21cb9065a23c753102a6ce11ae64b22361f435a02345f7f5cbf.jpg

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    https://www.europeanceo.com/finance/gut-feeling-may-be-key-to-success-for-financial-traders/
    a bit old – but having spent 15 years trading equities (London and NY) _ I have seen this in action – but the best traders I saw used many different tools – just as there are many different time frames = different style trader – which is why there seems to be grinding of heads as there can be a multitude of views – all dependent on time frame, resources at disposal, capital etc etc – the list is not endless but too many variables to list in its entirety
    Anyway January is almost over – bring on the Spring
    Remember 2008
    history may not repeat – but it does rhyme occasionally

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/01959891a4a9804f3fab8b5b8b821587d809c39c158abd25182af49546f0be18.png

  • sutluc

    I didn’t know that, haven’t looked at slope in a long time.

    Too bad, he was a happening guy.

    https://www.linkedin.com/in/delandevoisin/