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Losing Like a Winner: A Trader’s Guide
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Losing Like a Winner: A Trader’s Guide

by MoleNovember 16, 2009

Michael Davey here…

Let’s face it – we’re all terrible traders. Sometimes.

We look at the big picture, piece it all together and see something meaningful (fine); we feel a shift in trend and sense an opportunity is at hand (good); we absolutely know something is going to happen (very dangerous).

Again, what differentiates a winning trader at the end of the year is the willingness to minimize draw-downs. Since we can’t run like god all the time (and swinging for fences implies increased risk underwriting such reward), it means we’ve got to back-off when the market challenges our brilliant strategy/outlook and losses are at hand.

There are several ways to back-off, not the least of which is moving completely aside and waiting for your thesis to emerge. Too often though, we hold onto a subjective view and continue to fight, keeping in front of the trade. Once in a while this will work (if you come in only slightly ahead of a turn, for example), but far more often hanging-out on the wrong side of the tape (since you know better than the market) serves to harm in more ways than one.

First there are the losses, which bears know by now can be trying (see picture above). But second, there is the added draw-back of positioning yourself poorly for taking advantage of your original thesis; should it finally(!) develop. Yes, instead of a lovely sense of relief followed by a killing spree of gains, you are only too willing to take your little profit as relief initiates. You’ve been fighting for X number of days (months!) and now you’ve cemented your psychology in an up-stream mode. As pressure comes off and your trade evolves into a winner, you have to fight the urge to book the early gains (or lessened losses); crawling back to your den instead; happy to have survived with most of your entrails still contained.

If you simply get out of the way, however, it becomes much easier then to re-fire boldly as your belated genius begins to take hold and make money.

Did that make sense? The point is that losses kill, in future opportunity as well as present trauma – but still a strong part of you insists on hanging-out with them. Gains lead to more gains and losses beget further losses. Break the cycle before it can trap you; blow-out the losing trades and free yourself for future set-ups.

I’m a fool. I’ve said that many times, but I try fool-well not to be such an idiot. Trading for a living means you will be wrong on a regular basis (loser!). If normal life were like trading we would get into car accidents regularly, develop cancers on a monthly basis, accidently walk into oncoming traffic, sit down under falling knives, pianos, coconuts, etc.

Trading is not like real life! Stop thinking so logically.

Once you accept that you’re a freak, working in a freak field, it gets easier to stop holding onto losing ideas – no matter how brilliant they may be. And don’t think that because something is a small part of your overall portfolio that it is somehow less dangerous. Experienced traders know there is a tendency for our biggest losses to stem from those smaller positions. We’re on our guard when heavily invested in something, right? Well, we might be a little more slack when something cannot take us down in a day. Three months later you’re (finally!) cutting-off a limb because the gangrene stench means you can’t keep pretending it doesn’t really hurt.

Blow it out – cut cancers off at the toe while you have the chance.

Obviously I have learned the hard way – you will too if you haven’t already. If this doesn’t describe your experience – get away now and spare yourself! How easy is that? This game will warp how you look at everything.

It better.

There is no good reason to take a stand against a larger trend because of something  you think. Taking a shot when you see a set-up is great – you need to do that. It’s ironic, but even though you will lose limbs on a regular basis you need the gumption to attack like you can never be hurt. That gets harder as you get older (since the many wounds start to take a toll and create a risk-averse psyche). But fight like you mean it, you’re not going to win otherwise.

And then cower like a fool when things aren’t working. It’s kind of that simple, actually.

Case in point, if I had not been positioned short coming into today’s session, I very likely would have sold short into today’s close. But coming in short (aggressive accounts at least), means I was forced to neutralize – to run like a coward instead. Trust me, this is a better approach. The reason is that now I am free to fight again. If the short-line starts working tomorrow I am going to get in there and attack, but if the bulls log another ever-victory, I’m just sitting behind my yellowing curtains and knitting from the sidelines while things develop.

Yes, I personally still have a position, but this is because I think I know what I’m doing; and it is balanced market-neutral for the time being. If I am newer at trading, I am out altogether and simply waiting. But if I had taken my first shot short late today, I would add to that tomorrow on any weakness. I have a licence to attack in that case because I am gaining (and limbs are in tact). If I am bleeding, then I have to retract; period.

See the difference? I trade myself just like I trade a stock. I let out more as I’m gaining and I fire my ass to the sidelines if I’m losing.

I know I’m a fool because I trade for a living. Being a trader means I am wrong all the time. I don’t need to pretend otherwise, there is no shame in being wrong with such a dynamic as the market. Why should I stand up strong and tell myself and everyone who can read a blog-comment that I’m really right, even though I am losing? I’ll stand up tall and tell you I don’t know a bloody thing. If I was so smart I wouldn’t be here. I’d be a corporate lawyer wondering why there’s only 24 billable hours in a day.

Perhaps.

Cliff Notes: Maybe you’re like me – maybe you’re a trader. I can’t help you with that. But hey, you’re wrong all the time (I know) – so there is no reason then to keep fighting the ugly, losing fights. We’re fighting every day and the blows add up. You can be Tyson and storm the world, but you’ll be crushed soon enough. You’ve got to more of a coward than that if you want to come out ahead. You’ve got to minimize the blows. When your opponent is weak, that is the fight you want. Every trade is different but the best trades tend to work right away and just keep working. When you are doing best in this game, the gains come very, very easy.

What is the point of struggling so hard then, just to lose money?

Previously in this series:
A Trader’s Guide to Secondary Offerings (Part 2)
A Trader’s Guide to Secondary Offerings (Part 1)
A Trader’s Guide (Introduction)
A Trader’s Guide to Chasing Ambulances
A Trader’s Guide to Exhaustion


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • bo_10

    Mole, Berk, CD, and rest of viewers/posters. I have been a somewhat long time viewer of this site, and first time poster tonight. I wanted to say that I really enjoy the insite, comments and direction that this site is going and the education that it provides. As somone who aspires to trade for a living – and is now learning how – through this difficult market… I can only say thank you for the time, effort and excellent research that you guys are putting into your posts – to help us all. Hopefully as time goes on I can post some insites/ pov as well. But first I just wanted to say thanks.

  • Nightwind

    Michael, good post and descriptive narrative. Multiple losing trades can damage even seasoned traders. You're right…its nothing like life.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Nice to here – welcome to trading!
    (Monty Python in background – run awaaaayyyyyy!!!!)

  • PRSGuitars

    Excellent to have you, Bo — nifty avatar, too.

    Post your thoughts or musings whenever you have a chance, we love fresh faces here and especially unique points of view. What's your background? Experienced/intermediate trader or relative newbie? Swing trader, scalper, forex position trader, etc? (just curious)

    As I said, welcome – though you mentioned you've been here before. Enjoy the EvilSpec!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “If I was so smart I wouldn’t be here. I’d be a corporate lawyer wondering why there’s only 24 billable hours in a day.”

    if you were a corporate lawyer you'd know there are more than 24 billable hours in a day (just make sure your overlaping clients are not in the same group and will not cross reference your invoices)

  • PRSGuitars

    Excellente, Mr. Davey — nice post! Love the psychological aspect of things. You speak to a large portion of trading that goes often unreferenced – and like tennis, separates the best from the rest in a rather un-obvious way. Any trained ape can hit buy at the 50dma, but not every ape can trade their way out of a difficult spot. We need to all aspire to be better monkeys, and your articles rock at helping us find out how to peel a better banana.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    No wonder I'm stuck at this job – doh!

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Thank you sir, appreciate it

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't worry, you make one fine trader (and you know your lessons well)

  • icetrader

    Excellent post. I've been an avid reader of your blog for the past few months and you have certainly navigated these markets quite well. Good luck to you and keep the great posts coming.

  • bo_10

    Thanks – not sure about what is “experienced” – but have lost enough money to have a few battle scars… Just someone who is trying daily to increase what he knows and apply that in a profitable way.
    CD – thanks as well – I can not run away – this is my passion. It is not to gamble or having to be right – but getting instant feedback that draws me in – that, and the freedom of working for oneself – no other place can you do that as well as the market.

    FWIW – bought first unit of Jan 32 puts on X today. Starting to scale in a position through OPX week – if holds to trend should cap out @ 42.20 then rollover through first 10 days of Dec. to mid 37 range – if does not turn and we do not continue to see a base in VIX followed by spike shortly – will be out of position …
    Personal opinion is that OPX weeks moving forward will be a real tell sign of the market rolling over – when we start selling off into OPX Friday vs running up into them- then it might mark a top.

  • Tronacate

    One of the best things I've read in awhile. I feel beat to a pulp. Especially after the LUCK I had last year. I would let losers run just because I knew the market volatility would save my ass…..and sure enough it did 90% of the time…….This year I let losers run……and they became HUGE loses. Sucks, but lesson is learned.

  • http://www.vuepath.com vuepath

    Great post! Thanks for sharing your wisdom MD/CD. (Not to be confused with AC/DC)

  • clutchshorter

    Most of the financials (C, BAC, GS, JPM, MS) haven't really participated in the rally these past few weeks. In fact, some of them are below their recent highs.

  • kryxtal

    Check out this propaganda: http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/16/markets/thebuzz

    Rising gold/commodity prices and a falling dollar is a good thing, apparently.

  • Tronacate

    Yuppers……..have some BAC putz

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    that was a great read from Davey.

  • ejackson415

    I have been reading your site for a couple of months now, and I must say I do appreciate your writing and sense of humor. That picture at the top of your post is exactly how I feel all the time now, so it made me chuckle.

  • Tronacate

    I'm waiting until BERKS filter shows the time to go short from now on…….There's also another indicator that a guy uses to try to catch the trendchange on the daily……he calls it the PD entry Divergence of greater than 40degrees from the midline of two moving averages with a close in the bottom half of the bar

    http://content.screencast.com/users/trona/folde

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Thx u guys -going out for a bit; fresh look later

  • centerline

    Great post. Seriously great writing skills. My wife is an writer and surely would appreciate such skills. Thanks again.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Nice post! I wish you hadn't used my x-ray from that BBQ fiasco however……

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Someone (forgot who – cannot give proper credits) – posted link to Gerald Celente interview
    http://www.shtfplan.com/forecasting/gerald-cele

  • Woolly Llama

    CD,

    Your posts are a mindfuck. Just like trading and my girlfriend. So cruel and I love it!

  • wanessafruas

    Hi mole. Please, read Black Swan. Taleb would call the process of charting as a random walk. Do u agree with it?

  • http://www.bostonwealth.net/author/dr_livesey/ Dr Livesey

    I thing tomorrow is a decision day for SPX. If we will start to move down by the opening – the top is probably in. Otherwise it looks like we should be in the last wave [v] up. Strange, but /ES and SPX are looking different to the wave iv. In /ES the (i)-(ii) trendline is not crossed, but in SPX already.

    Here is my analysis.
    http://epiccallonfate.blogspot.com/2009/11/mark

  • AS2009

    This is such an awesome post and something that just dawned on me like a light shining in my eye saying wake up wake up ….

    I am a comparitive newbie to trading with TA – 5 months old … have traded a lot before w/o TA and as you can guess lost a ton – so come with a lot of baggage ….

    So yesterday, I was looking at my account and I saw that the trades where I hoped would turn around and let them run further turned out to be the ones that racked up the losses where I ultimately lost 100% of what I put in them as I said what is use of saving $20 – let is just expire …. and if I had just cut the losses at 50%, then my account would have been up 10% for the last 6 months, instead I am down 10% …

    Basically, these trades ate up all my profits on all my other trades and then some more after that – making all my effort useless … lesson well learnt … today I took my 45% loss on PALM puts and moved on …. will enter when I am sure and everything confirms … I saved the capital for the next trade ….

    Move on …

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Passion is a good sign.
    …you're screwed 😉

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    That's a good point and a good example of how when you make the most money it is quite easy to achieve. After so many years of working effortlessly on big gains and working my ass off when losing it started to dawn on my that I was working too hard just to lose.

    …mantra for my entire life now.

  • molecool

    Yes, the reports of EvilSpeculator's death are greatly exaggerated 😉

  • molecool

    Black Swan? Never heard of it.

    hint hint –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –> –>

  • molecool

    Thanks Bo – really appreciate the kind words 🙂

  • AS2009

    I hope to God – that never happens – ES is an awesome site – and on my daily / intraday reading list 🙂

    Your charts are the one that I completely rely on for EW Mole 🙂

  • mmTesla

    I never trade when I do not have an edge or clear advantage. If the trade doesn't do what I expect, I don't wait for it to prove me wrong, I tie it off and move on.

    My 2 cents

  • de3600

    Oh have I gotten spanked futures down 3 and I feel like I hit lotto 🙂

  • mmTesla

    Short or long?

  • de3600

    Oh I have gotten smashed on the short side but still in the game

  • de3600

    Rimm march 50 puts looking good now

  • mmTesla

    Whats the time frame for the trade?

  • http://www.lostinmendoza.blogspot.com/ biffermas

    Another sickeningly rational point of view by one of my favorite bloggers. It's always good to hear your views, CD/MD!

    Take care!

  • gregn

    Fantastic post. As CD has said before, being 'right' is not as important as banking coin. I like how you always say that you know nothing, which is an implicit way of stating that it is not important to have some esoteric knowledge to make money in the markets (at least that's what I think you are getting at). You, Mole and Berk make up the best market-based blog on the internet, hands down.

  • http://twitter.com/faisal3391 FAISAL

    what worries more is dollar, not shorting this bloody rally. Bulls are not making money last few months actually losing money if stock is priced in gold. Bears are losing money shorting this bloody rally and at the same dollar is devalued , so bears are bloodied twice.

  • crush1618

    Thank you for the post, MD/CD!

  • molecool

    Well, then come by more often – I know where you've ventured lately, little Mrs!! Fortunately I'm not he jealous type – whatever helps you bank the most coin 😉

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    That's pretty much it, I just want to make money. Also, when I analyze my biggest draw-down periods they follow a pattern of being sure of something. Sometimes I am sure and it works out, certainly, but I want to eliminate big draw-downs so I try to keep flexible first.

    Hey, thanks for the comments – I know Berk and Mole work very hard here and appreciate the best blog comment. I'm happy to contribute what I can

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Absolutely – analyze your losses and gains. And with an open mind you learn how to maximize, just by simple honest study (such as you mention). Plug the holes and your game improves.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    “I know where you've ventured lately” – lol

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Send her over 😉

  • http://www.anomalousmaterial.com CastorTroy

    SPX/SPY closing in on that 50% fib. Expecting at least a short-term pullback at some point in this SPY 112-113 area. This is OPEX week so it could be delayed until next week.
    http://tinyurl.com/yg92wnp

  • Publius Federali

    CD, fantastic post. Thank you for your insight, I will work to apply it.

  • gregn

    Fwiw, daily /dx showing positive money flow and momentum divergences over a month period. Mole has stated that he expects a 73-74 support for the good ole buck and I wouldnt be surprised to see high 73s this week. Hopefully the “powers that be” do not allow further devaluation, though the “powers that be” caused the devaluation in the first place…

  • PRSGuitars

    Volume supporting a bounce too — suggesting bottoming phase for the DX if it can get out of the channels:

    http://screencast.com/t/YWRmNDQ1N

  • Publius Federali

    I like watching the Eur/USD. The chart looks very interesting. We just closed the lower part of the gap at 1.5 that took us off the summer '08 Euro highs. The top level of that gap from '08 is at 1.53. Not only is that 1.53 the start of an enormous .03 one day drop, that same number acted as support twice on the way to the 1.6 high.

    It's also has been trading in a nice channel over the last half year. The top of that channel happens to cross the 1.53 mark in about eight or nine days.

    So it looks like more upside is certainly possible, we just have to watch the 1.5 level, and if breaks we can look for 1.53. At the same time the possibility exists that this lower trend line holds and the bottom for the dollar is in.

    If it breaks above the 1.53 level then we might have a lot more serious problems than whether the S&P might hit 1121.

    http://screencast.com/t/OThiZDQw

  • molecool

    That's right – I see everything :-))

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    and you don't sleep either

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Yes we are, but as you mentioned spx:gold is way underwater and asking for more.

    last time an attempt was made to drop gold and raise equities, it… it was september 2008

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I've go some heavily mixed signals

    spx:gold still contained but not falling heavily either

    bpspx way beyond MA13 but still with unconvincing rise (and some very naughty channels)

    I would say a black swan is heading this way, but a brutal last rise can still be in order…

    don't you hate these moments?

  • ultra

    Hey, morning hamst, morning everyone.

    God, this post rings so true it hurts. Thanks for some more great writing, Mike. Booked a bigger loss than I needed to yesterday trying to short cable, so your timing couldn't be better. This is exactly the type of shiznit that I need to cut out if I'm going to be successful.

    Black swan would be nice, but it would hardly qualify from here I think – light grey at best heh..

    Continuing on from all the bullshi… bullish counts yesterday, have you seen daneric's one where this is just the top of A coming up?

    I mean, I know all Berk's browser death indicators are starting to look promising, but, well, y'know..

  • Sleepynaptime

    Great post, Michael. Reminded me of something I knew but seemed to have forgotten.

    I haven't seen anyone else mention this, so I will. With Thanksgiving coming up, what is everyone expecting next week? Are the big boys gone for the week to enjoy the holiday, leaving the junior traders and the HAL9000s in charge? Do they leave instructions to trade in a range or to ramp it up for the week on light volume?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Awesome post Michael. Enjoy your work.

    Can I suggest at some stage you expand one of these and do something on compulsive tape watching? I posted yesterday evening but I feel its worth repeating.

    Sometimes, walking away, leaving orders in at predefined levels and doing something else is your best course of action. Because watching the tape increases stress levels no end.

    Yesterday was one of the best examples I've ever seen. I went to the gym after work (6.00pm here in Ireland), managed to raise the old endorphin levels and clear the mind, but I got stuck in a traffic jam on the way home. So I opened the blackberry and ES was the last page I had viewed on it so I hit refresh. From the general tone of the posts I was reading, I fully expected to arrive home seeing Dow 10,500 and S&P 1,122 and the EURUSD at 1.52. Rather than immediately check the markets, as a matter of curiosity I first checked Kennys site; that was even worse.

    And yet, once I loaded Marketwatch.com (I know, but it presents great on a blackberry browser), I saw that everything was pretty much where I had left it, and thus it is this morning. EurUSD is the same, Dxy is the same as it was at this time yesterday. And yet everyone on earth is cursing and hexing Ben Bernanke as if he personally torpedoed peoples brokerage accounts.

    IMO this is down to compulsive tape watching, and particularly when people are on the wrong side of a trade. When you are on a losing trade, and feeling cognitive dissonance, you feel every pip, every 0.01% of a move against you, and staring at the tape for hours on end doesn't cure it. It robs you of perspective, and prevents logical and calm thinking which is precisely what you need at that time.

    I shorted yesterday at 10,400 and literally walked away. Sure this could be like the rally after July and we never re-visit 10,400 again, but I have not committed myself in a size where I can't handle 200 points against me, and the balance of probabilities and the patterns of the last 6 months suggest we oscillate lower again at some point to the 10,100-10,200 area. I don't pretend to know if this is the top or not, but even if I was bullish, the constantly repeating patterns of bear traps followed by strong rallies followed by retracements makes me comfortable with the position.

    However, if I had been watching the tape yesterday, watching the ridiculous turnaround in the DXY, would I be so calm?

    I don't even know what I'm waffling on about here Michael, but I'm sure you know exactly what I'm talking about, and could put it more eloquently.

  • jonny zero

    Excellent post Michael. Just what I needed to clear my head reevaluate. Thanks.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hi ultra

    what dan was saying was this could still be a of the abc composing y of a wxy double zigzag major C

    or did I get it wrong?

  • ultra

    Nope. That's it. Sideways and up. I think a large part of his thinking is trying to force himself to consider what's the most bullish scenario that he can come up with, which is a useful exercise.

    He's kind of tying it into this huge expanding triangle count that he has going on for the VIX, which I don't really buy into though. More seeing bottoming at the mo – it's hanging in there so far.

    As is the buck, really, DXY's a bit misleading here I think, if you look at the €, which has *still* not beat the October high and is forming what looks a lot like a H&S at multiple degrees (mini-h&s for the right s of the biggie).

    Naturally, this will all mean that we are going up, up, up today..

  • spicestory

    Michael, damn you, it hurts 🙂 excellent writing. thank you for sharing

  • tradejane

    It's always good to get a dose of tough love in this business, thank you Michael.

    Risk management is no longer the issue it used to be (thanks FAZ!) or I wouldn't be here. For example: I keep losses very tiny and I NEVER double down – only up. (I know that DD can work for others but it doesn't work for me.)

    Yet even a small loss can make it hard for me to stick to a winning trade and/or jump in the water when it's warm again. So I'm definitely working on the gumption part.

    Another thing is, I tend to argue with the tape on occasion. 🙂

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    there are more bulish counts, but believe me, you don't want to hear them

    btw, I do like (and mentioned independently) the VIX megaphone

    remember VIX can rise with nominal spx rising… for a whille

  • ultra

    Morning, Ireland. You are damn right. Haven't been getting enough lately, but went out for a run yesterday before the open and will be doing the same this morning. Wlt get to the gym, but am on the move at the moment and don't think there is one I can get to where I am bah.

    Following on from Michael's post above, if this post is ringing true for you, then you really should read this great one posted over on the Slope last night too:

    http://tinyurl.com/yhr85qo

  • ultra

    Let's not worry about those until we are actually staring some horrible choppy b-wave rubbish in the face, eh?

    This is suggesting topping around SPX 1117 to me (for v=i). May get some over-splort, of course, but we are at all kinds of resistance in the Dow, so I can't see it going too crazy.

    http://screencast.com/t/N2RhY2E4Y

  • tradejane

    Excellent article Ultra, thanks, that's exactly how I plan my trades too. Nice to read that others like this approach as well.

  • ultra

    Yep, it's what I try to do too, but he spelled it out absolutely succinctly.

    It's as they say – to know, read; to understand, write; to master, teach…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    just a small reflection…

    as in the last rise gap ups seem the plat du jour on s&p

    5 gap ups representing 65% of the 85 points we did…

    it's deja vu all over again

    remember a month ago, about nasdaq?

    Dollar getting whacked again?ok, but on a major index, 107 points up with 70 of gap ups? I said that this time they had lost all decendy and sense of proprierty, they must make a high at all cost, 4 gap ups, 2/3 of the rise.

    PLEASE!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ultra

    these last rises are as biohazardous as they come, this is PPT wave theory, not normal EWT

    count the gaps, try counting waves from the start and see where they should have ended… it's plain f”$”#$ing nightmare

    The problem is simple, nobody's playing the stockmarket anymore, ETF's, futures (and specialy options) are like early 20th century bucketshops, the money is being BET on market moves and margins are being swept constantly.

    I don't quit because I see a structural weakness that must be met, but I worry if somehow they figured out how to postpone it enough not to matter

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Looks like Richard Russell has turned bullish dowtheoryletters.com
    “Late Notes — Another strong day for both the stock market and gold. Dow at a new high and Transports finally confirmed today! Primary and secondary trend of the stock market is confirmed as bullish. Lowry's is bullish and believes we're in a primary bull market. Up-volume was a strong 87.7% of up + down volume.”

    Even IF this is a BULL market???? I guess we would be in wave 1 (close to completing) so no reason to get bullish up here..ie we would have a wave 2 down (or wave 3 if bear)..
    Anyway keeping powder dry (what's left!!) looking for DOW to top anywhere from here up to 10670 (prob more likely as the bull stampede is gathering pace http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mutual-funds-c…)
    http://www.screencast.com/t/MWU0OGJj

  • tradejane

    Yup, he said it better than I ever could or would. I saved it and printed it out.

    Nevertheless, I have a hunch that self-discipline/the ability to pick one's self off the ground again, and again, is just as important as risk-management and a decent trading plan. Maybe even more important.

  • ultra

    heheheh yeah I know

    that musing should definitely come with a wealth warning – I'm sure no-one will be going short off the back of it.

    for the sake of balance, then – very rough targets based upon multiples of wave i from the current wave iv low

    1 – 1115
    1.618 – 1125
    2.618 – 1136
    4.236 – 1158

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    well, 5s get overexcited so 1158 seems just what doctor berna asked for

  • Chedly

    Mole. Michael et al..great work and postings, thanks.

    A question for you about primary EW waves -from a non chartist- :
    Assuming we hit a top soon around 1120 on the SPX, as many EW'ers seem to believe, what is the key support level of SPX that we need to crack on the way down to declare P3 (primary wave 3) has started ?.

    Also, I read in some EW quarters that P3 may take a couple years to complete, and may bottom at 444 on the SPX. Do you concur?

    If this is more or less the game plan that many seem to believe, then why worry about gaps, mini waves and such? Do + or – 20 points on the SPX really matter if we are heading down to 444?! Time to backup the truck and wait!!

    Full portfolio disclosure:
    I have gone 100% short on the SPX at 850 back in January'09. I covered half of my position at 675 in March, and am still 50% short the SPX at 850. I am hedged on the long side with gold and oil.
    So, my position is roughly [50% short SPX, 25% long GLD, 25% long oil]

  • bobthehorse

    Europe sovereign CDS moving tighter this morning – will see if that is over for good. I suspect not as we approach ECB 'exit strategy'.

  • bobthehorse

    Well, have been crunching some numbers this am and my short-term models point to 1065 on ESZ9. Only problem is, pinpointing the exact area to get short is tough. Suggest sizing needs to be small so you can ride the volatility. Or through Dec puts.

  • ultra

    Oh, btw, if you are looking for a Black Swan, one may have just arrived… here comes the next pandemic…

    UK Daily Mail reports – http://tinyurl.com/ya4uk83
    For the darker minded – http://tinyurl.com/yjngo2n

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    try going full short if it goes straight to 1150, and yes, drop at 1070 (it's one of the scenarios)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    cheerful…!! 🙂

  • ultra

    I am a bundle of joy, yes 🙂

    Have buzzed my mate who works for Bloomberg – he is going to see what the Ukrainian branch is saying – will report back if it's anything interesting..

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Ultra, you just became eligible for a 50% rebate on the crazy hamster tinfoil hat

  • ultra

    LOL. It better say Dow 43k on the front…

  • SodaBoy

    Amazing post Michael – a really good read and very useful. I for one believe the psychology of trading is far more important than any technical analysis – as someone pointed out – you could teach a monkey to look at graphs and moving averages… it takes real intellectual strength to know when you're wrong.

    Mole just wanted to let you know the site is getting better all the time – I'm enjoying the calmer/cooler you (at least I get that vibe from your recent posts) – and the contributions from Michael and Berk are spot on.

    Thanks for providing is with this medium to learn Mole and for all your hard work – I personally appreciate it very much.

    (Just another of the ES quiet fans)
    Soda

  • bobthehorse

    To be honest, if we go to 1150, I will abandon the corrective scenario.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    don't, watch spx:gold before saying it is over

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    nopes, it's the “DOW 50 K” model

  • onorio

    Tks for those links ultra

  • CorporalCarrot

    Bit of cheeky performance from the USD this mornign folks. Whats up with it?

  • ultra

    I am looking at cable just now and it's showing a 50% retrace of yesterday's scoot up at the mo – correcting before today's moonshot?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    John Mauldin “Frontline Thoughts”.. good article written by Hugh Hendry in his Eclectica November Fund commentary

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    BTW

    http://afludiary.blogspot.com/2009/11/ukraine-a

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=

    so, no black lungs, normal mortality for @$$holes that instead of going to the doctor weaken their imune system with antibiotics when they have a virus

  • Niktus

    I am more bearish on the cable. I think we will see 1.6514 tested again.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    calma, é nabice dos ukranianos

  • onorio

    Conta-me historias conta…lol

  • ultra

    Interesting. Well, it was *very* perky yesterday and I obviously had no joy trying to go short. Just can't see it going down if stocks go crazy to the upside. Would be a nice correlation break if it did, but…

    Anything in particular making you lean towards being immediately bearish?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    are you using periscope or you just venturing at the same places? 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    great read which is totally irrelevant/dangerous/untimely for real life trading?
    Karl D. writing something good too…every day…just wondering if he still has any money left in his trading account

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    CD – that is the best indication I know of
    “but the best trades tend to work right away and just keep working”

    I have time stop on the trade as well – if it does not do what I thought it would do in let say 10min for day trade – I get out in 80% of the cases.

  • Schwerepunkt

    EUR just fell out of bed. USD rising. Futs falling, but just a little. Hmmmm. Could be hangover from yesterday's Bernanke dollar talk. I also saw Arab Gulf officials saying a single currency is not imminent. There is something going on in the currency universe that we need to watch carefully. We could be witnessing decoupling in train.

  • CorporalCarrot

    The dollar is not playing ball at all this morning, but strangely equities are relatively calm. I think we could be getting close to that dollar decoupling Bob mentioned a few days ago. And perception is drastically different from reality here at the moment.

    lol identical posts

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    what we most likely witnessing is a reconnection of latest disconnected “all up move” – it normally manifests itself during key market's turning points

  • Schwerepunkt

    EUR dropped 40+ pips in 10-min. Still dropping. Now equities starting to catch up. Move had already started when I logged on. Now, I can only watch. I try not to chase.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    read my two posted links, normal numbers, normal situation

  • Schwerepunkt

    “Darker?” More like fuligan.

  • molecool

    Do you ever sleep or are you a vampire like me?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes cable seems to want to test 1.70 maybe higher..1.6750 was a bit of a cap and now we are retesting..if/when it gets to 1.70+ then maybe time to short…? coinciding with top in equities? great plans. 😉

  • onorio

    Ja li os links…

    A culpa e memo dos ucranianos que em vez de irem ao medico comem alho e limoes…LMAO

  • molecool

    Thanks for the kind words – I have been less prolific lately as I have a lot to deal with. But as they say: It's always darkest before the dawn, and I will remember the folks who supported us during the tough times.

  • molecool

    Take a ruler and draw a line from the March bottom through all the major lows since then – that's the uncle barrier. We breach that an it's rock & roll time.

  • bergs

    Yep that picture is me for sure, damn printing press handle does not enter one's head softly.

    Short term count

    http://screencast.com/t/MzJmMTIwMjg

  • molecool

    More retail traders being led to the slaughter – so sad.

  • cantabnomad

    great post, thanks.

  • Niktus

    I am not seeing it in the short term. More of a target to be eventually reached. But if ES tanks expect thing to go 1.66 something and not to reach 1.70. If it does i see it as a opportunity to further short.

  • gmak

    Mole: Thanks for the Meridith Whitney video in your earlier post. It's nice to see someone else raising the issue of MBS money = 20% of the banks' recapitalization??!!

    Pre-Market warm up
    SPX daily closed above the long term trend line “BIG WHITE”. Volume was up on this day, but sill below the last big up day on November 9th (Monday of last week). TD Pressure moved sideways and is still signaling that a retrace is due. Yesterday was bar 13 in a SELL countdown following the SELL setup.

    The setup establishes the dominant trend, the countdown marks off (in this case) buyer exhaustion. The 13th bar indicates a probable reversal of the trend within 12 bars. Looking at the TD Pressure and the points of resistance overhead, it appears that conditions are aligning for a retrace.

    HOWEVER, it is an OPEX week. Nothing will be as it seems.

    Points of resistance overhead on the daily SPX:
    Upper Bollinger = 1117.40
    50% FIB = 1121.44; This is around the point that Pareto analysis (80/20) of the MBS slosh money indicates would be the the upper end for SPX. This is also where the short-term trend line (it was a white dotted line on my chart from this Sunday) crosses the FIB line.
    Channel top = between 1140 and 1153ish – depending on how shaky the crayon drawing the trend is.

    Points of support below on the daily SPX:
    Short term violet trend line from July = around 1089ish
    Mid Bollinger = 1074.45
    Short term trend from August (dotted violet line) = 1050ish
    Short term trend from October (dotted white line) = 1036ish
    Bottom Bollinger = 1031.50

    All of these could be decision points for a bounce or break in intra-day trading and in establishing a continued trend or reversal. They are risk management points NOT predictors.

    Equity
    Asia was mixed with Shanghai bucking the red trend amongst the bigger markets at up 0.25%. Europe is red – but just. MSM is saying that the focus is on Bernanke seeing “risks to economy” – as if no one could see these before he spoke. Emerging Market stocks are down apparently for the same reason. Take a look at EDZ for a way to leverage this play, if you’re interested.

    DAX is green in Tech, utilities, and Telecom. This is a combo of growth and dividend /cash producing. Looking at it another way, it suggests that the Naz will decouple from S&P and DOW trend today. <shrug>. Dax looks like it opened down a bit and has been moving sideways in a 20 point range.
    Trichet says that the EUR wasn’t made to replace the USD – maybe that is why we’re seeing DXY strength.

    ES fell from its HOD but bounced into the close yesterday. Overnight was pretty much sideways. Pivots:
    R2: 1124.50 – would be a blowout new high. Unlikely in OPEX week.
    R1: 1115.50 = Possible. Needs money to get there and I think we saw the liquidity push yesterday, with subsequent distribution. Thursday is when $40 bb of TAF money matures and this will move the market.
    Neutral: 1103 = ES has been going back and forth over this all night like a mop on Ritalin.
    S1: 1094 = haven’t seen this since Sunday at open
    S2: 1082 = just a fond memory for the bears.

    FX

    The big news here is that it appears that pressure on China is working – at least verbally.
    • IMF’s Strauss Kahn asked when China should let yuan appreciate, replies “sooner the better”
    • EU Almunia: China accepts must rebalance economy and that some fx appreciation necessary
    • Chinese Vice Foreign Minister: Yuan has aided global economic recovery from crisis. It should be clear to all what China’s yuan policy is
    • Obama: Pleased to note the Chinese commitment, made in past statements, to move toward a more “market-orientated exchange rate over time.”
    USD is stronger today and moving comfortably above 75 to test resistance at 75.40; CAD got a kick in the pills and is down over a cent. JPY, EUR, and GBP are all weaker – with the EUR getting smacked for a cent.
    The EUR was moving sideways in AH trading (AH for the US) but there was some funny business at midnight EST. EUR dropped 100 pips (one cent) in ½ hour. Then rose back up to hit the pivot solidly at 1.50 over the next hour. Since then it has found its way back down to the 50% FIB at 1.4873.
    Apparently there is a “do not touch” option expiring this Friday on the EUR, in the range of 1.48 – 1.51; The word is that it is heavily defended at both ends. A US bank is said to have come in and stop ran to get the EUR below 1.488. But this was within the last hour or so.
    In other News, the European trade balance was surprisingly in the surplus (came out around 5 AM EST) – which confuses me as to why the EUR is weaker. Trade up = currency up in a rational world.
    EUR pivots:
    R2: 1.5091 – defended to the death between now and Friday OPEX.
    R1: 1.5030 = above the clouds as far as the last few days are concerned. Looks like EUR has put in a double top around 1.50
    Neutral: 1.4956 = acted as support for a bit of back and forth after the stop running at midnight;
    S1: 1.4895 = mild support for about an hour before the next fall which is underway – This is where the US bank came in to stop run.
    S2: 1.4820 = likely to be defended to the death as well due to the “do not touch” option.

    News
    Bernanke says “extended period” may be even longer as joblessness rises – i.e. for low borrowing costs. So why is the USD stronger? GOLD is down about $10 – and given the currencies it looks like a flight from risk. Can’t they make up their minds day to day? In or out? Risk or safety? C’mon! The MSM needs a reason for why things are happening and it can be confusing. I would suggest that profit taking is underway, and that there are things happening behind the scenes that we can’t observe – but that the big money can through their IB contacts.

    UK Inflation rate up more than forecast.
    Yellen is speaking a muddying the water with “not clear whether to use rates to stem leverage”. In other words she doesn’t know if raising rates should be used to stop bubbles. (just shoot me now; put me out of my misery. They are either incredibly stupid or criminal.).

    Russia says it won’t diversify currency reserves – this might be the bullish kick for USD (ya think?). Watch what they do, not what they say.

    DATA
    8:30
    All the inflation data PPPI, core etc. – The wholesale slice of inflation is expected to be up in positive territory versus deflation in the prior month. YoY, it is expected to still be negative – but better than last month
    9:00
    TIC flows = rut roh for the “always depended on the kindness of strangers” school of economic destruction.
    9:15
    Industrial Production
    Cap utilization = the reason we will be told not to worry about inflation.
    13:00
    NAH housing market index
    17:00
    Consumer confidence.

    Not much else left to say, except keep the powder dry. It’s always easier to see what is happening in hindsight, so why not wait until the turn is confirmed?

    Cheers.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Woohoo! A smaller rise in mortgage delinquencies, only up 7.3% in the quarter to a record 6.25% of all mortgages. Market should go to the moon!

    Alice in Wonderland.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    me no vampire…just manic depressed… at least today..and in a very bad mood…recalled the guy I knew (played with my ex) who died very young – world is a shitty place
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZ_04ojUi4I

  • Schwerepunkt

    weird ppi #'s . . . deflation?

  • CorporalCarrot

    I'm sure Karl D will be all over these numbers with delight. Euro briefly spiked but now its “as you were”.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Why would deflation surprise you ?……..comoddity prices, energy prices are all down from a year ago…..

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Interesting. I have to look more closely at this idea

  • Schwerepunkt

    It doesn't surprise me; I'm in the deflationary camp. But most of the talk is about inflationary pressures forcing the fed to raise rates and gold spiking to infinity. Doesn't look to me like either is going to happen.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Price impacts on markets take a while to trickle into the economy as existing supply contracts gradually get replaced by new ones that are closer to new market prices. I think Oil and Metals (Non-Precious) are the ones that are going to have the inflationary impacts……..yet to come especially if a weak dollar persists (or worsens).

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    ES seems to have shrugged off the PPI data……back to the old addage that news doesn't affect markets…..

  • Schwerepunkt

    Demand destruction is still taking place. Debt bombs are still ticking. Home prices are still falling. Credit is still in retraction. The high prices of all commodities last year led to a boost in investment in those sectors. Additional supplies will be coming on line, albeit not for a few years at the earliest. China's warehouses are filling-up with raw materials. When they are full, and nobody wants to purchase their inventories of finished goods, there will be preciously little demand for commodities. There are too many ships; 30-40% need to be scrapped. Wages are stagnant, income levels are in retreat.

    I think the commodities bubble is just that, a bubble created by financial dislocations, not economic drivers. There will be no inflationary pressure. AIMO

  • gmak

    PPI aside (although it does show that deflation rules everywhere except food and energy…. and equities), here is the daily email from the Reuters london fixed income desk. What is interesting is that the market is beginning to SHOW doubts about Bernanke's hanky panky.

    <quote>
    Tuesday, November 17, 2009

    Ben Talks a Good Game, But Market has Doubts He Can Pull it Off
    Heavy and Extending Debt Load Seen as Albatross Around Bond Market”s Neck
    Faustian Bargain With Creditors (China) Intact, But Rumblings Afoot
    Yellen, PPI, TIC, Lacker, Pianalto, NAHB, the Dollar and Risk Assets
    There”s an evident air of tension currently about in the markets as they appear to be having a devil of a time pondering the many dependent and independent variables affecting their price action that themselves are ever changing in their reality and/or perception to almost make them imponderable or impossible to accurately assess. Tough duty, which for now will have us better chasing ranges — often revolving around the ever-present treasury auction supply — while trying with Fisher-like “alacrity” to dodge the slings and arrows that often accompany year-end trading.

    What we do know with the utmost certitude is that the Fed has a plan and that they”re sticking to it. Basically they will use every hook, crook and other tool at their disposal to secure the elusive sustainable recovery (jobs and end-user demand). Bravo, though a tact not without its obvious inherent challenges, but one that is also fraught with the potential for nasty unintended consequences. And it is very much to this dichotomy or opposing factors that the bond market is trying to balance with the added provocation of having to do so on a path-dependent time continuum that veers one way to the other as time moves forward and events themselves unfold.

    Though this ground has been covered before, if the US economy was an autarchy or relatively closed system, the Fed”s job would be immeasurably easier and the market”s behavior would be controlled or near dictated by Fed policy as is the case with short-term rates and instruments such as t-bills. The current system though, is an open one and one that has seen a seminal evolution over the last decade with the establishment of the Faustian bargain with China that essentially witnessed China exchanging very low-priced merchandise in the trillions for both cash and IOUs. The feedback loops were and are myriad and cross many markets with subsequent macro imbalances now appearing to have hit a tipping point.

    As the powers that be try to rebalance the global macro structure it too will have its own set of intended and unintended consequences some of which will inevitably loop back into the bond market. The unenviable fact remains that over 50% of US debt is owed by overseas creditors and recent coupon auctions have attracted at least an equal representation. This is a dangerous situation which has a decent probability of ending in higher rate tears and at the least puts the market in that vulnerable position. That Treasury is both meaningfully adding to and extending the duration of its debt is only seen as sharpening this sword of Damocles over the longer end of the bond market”s neck — both a buzz and a rally killer. If there is any good news on this it is that China”s exit strategy (currency revaluation) too will be of the “extended period” nature which if so will allow bonds to trade in a more or less orderly fashion in the interim.

    With Fed policy a given, it is expected to keep a relative floor under bonds with an ongoing extreme steep structure of the curve. The better unknowns are the future state of market sponsorship and of course on what path — sustainable recovery, double dip, U, L — the economy will take. The market is already aware that certain maturities – the 3-year on under – sell themselves with further maturities a more difficult sale. It”s all about supply and demand here and with Q-E II already a legacy and Q-I soon enough sun-setted, this along with the expected enhanced treasury issuance suggest that the long end has its work cut out for it and that a ceiling too has been built over the market”s head.

    </quote>

  • gmak

    I wouldn't call a 20 pip move a spike. EUR continued its slow trend back up from the LOD, that's all.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    gmak, love reading your premarket every morning when I get u to start the trading day.

  • centerline

    Pass the funky tea.

  • gmak

    Thanks. It gets a little long sometimes but helps to get my mind on track.

    ________________________________

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Standing back, exercise, even something as simple as a shower is very good for perspective and to shake the compulsive lock many of us have to work to avoid (i'm afraid i'm one of them)/

    Sure, I think it is good for a segment; thx

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I often go and watch TV !! Daytime TV perhaps not the best use of precious time but hey ho…..

  • gregn

    /dx showing strength up .50 last time I checked.

  • weasel_whisperer

    So does this mean the Fed will pump more money into the system to try get the inflation it desires? And like all the other money the Fed has printed, does it end up in the stock market instead of the economy?

  • dollar

    Oct. Industrial Production: +0.1% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.7% prior. Capacity utilization +0.2 to 70.7%.

  • killafox

    So far spx is trading inside a triangle typical movement of wave iv, if it holds and 1101 holds we will see news highs today check out details at http://marketrendwaves.blogspot.com/.

    REgards and good luck.

  • gmak

    WHere have you been? 🙂
    The FED does nothing but pump money. There is still at least $300 bb left in the MBS program between now and March. This iquidity going into the financail system is leveraged and used to buy risk assets (basically everything except US tbills). The returns are diminishing though as more and more USD is needed for that next 1% move up in any risky assets.

    Each asset class has its moment in the sun until rotation takes the slosh to another asset class. Gold is the calamity /catastrophe guage. Tbill auctions show how long the party will continue for risk assets.

  • Schwerepunkt

    There is no velocity of money. All this money being printed is going to a chosen few and it remains either on their balance sheets in hopes it will offset ticking debt/security bombs, or it gets funneled into the markets or it becomes fossilized propping up undead securities like MBS. Loan origination is way down, whether consumer or commercial. Until this money makes its way into the real economy, where it can circulate and generate the vaunted “multiplier effect” it will not result in inflation. Yes, they can keep printing money, for now. And so far, all they have accomplished is staved off a total financial collapse and boosted the stock market. The end game will be a horror show and it will likely result in painful deflation followed by hyperinflation.

    We should be entering a period of price destruction of risk assets soon, mirroring the demand destruction. But what the hell do I know? I used to be a journalist and I missed the rally from March. ;-((

  • Schwerepunkt

    Monthly TIC increased.

  • CorporalCarrot

    This is a strong market, I think Bob's description of Raging Bull is totally appropriate. This post is guaranteed to herald a major tanking, but the relative strength this morning is astounding considering the runup over the last 10 sessions. No panic, nothing disorderly, no real reaction to the dollar rebounding. Just some profit taking, and normal selling. Dip buyers should be here soon, we should make new highs.

  • shortcover

    the big fear for all central bankers is deflation – it's hard to shake…maybe they throw more $ at it. Not sure. But it's clear that deflation is here to stay and that keeps them up at night…scary…

  • clutchshorter

    Here we go again, bulls running this up..

  • tradejane

    Ay, it's strong. But not invincible. 🙂

  • rangefinder

    Talking about a raging bull… Hi Berk it's me again…you friendly neighbourhood raging bull.

    Our little exchange made me go back and reassess the count and on reflection I make the count (5).i.5.III – that's based on minute counts on the DOW and EMAs and breath and depth signalling the degree of the last two corrective waves, which I'm labelling as iv.3.III and 4.III respectively. The latest leg up is therefore i.5.III and I have a projected max of SPX1152 with several more weeks of this uptrend to come.

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I don't quite understand you're labelling convention……is the III the smallest scale ?……and so we're on the 3 leg of the 5th ?

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I think we're in the IVth of the 5th…….possible that the vth has already started but we'll know soon.

  • ultra

    Put the kettle on, fella – I shouldn't be altogether surprised if we get there this afternoon.. 😉

  • goldpackers

    Th “powers” want this mkt above 10,000 in December to help save the Christmas shopping season. Down days will be sharp but no follow thru. The technicals can't beat Obama Ben Geitner – YET.

  • gsavli

    we just might, market sure wants to go up with lucy and her diamonds. But that DXY is a bitch today, an anchor of some sort, if you like…

  • clutchshorter

    Banks rejected my friend's loan application for grad school. His credit score is a 730. They told him he had sufficient cash saved up to pay for it himself and didn't require the assistance of a bank. Seriously???

  • ultra

    A little divergence across the dollar pairs here – EUR made a new low (albeit with RSI divergence), whereas AUD and GBP looking bullish in nice little up channels on the 5 min.. let's see..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep banks have no money to lend!! Friend who is self employed *(teady business healthcare), no mortgage, owns a house clear, wanted to buy a small apt back in UK for a base when they are on holiday (no more than 80k gbp)..went to 6 banks.each one had a different excuse for not wanting to lend them the money..despite him being able to put 40% down…
    Just shows….

  • observingquietly

    $BKX is back to where it was in April.

  • observingquietly

    Correction: $BKX is back to where it was in early May.

  • ultra

    Yep, far less risky to just keep it safely tucked away in the virtual vault and hand it out in bonuses at the end of the year.

  • goldpackers

    Seems if a prominent analyst(ie Meredith Whitney) takes a bearish stance, the Plunge Protection Team comes to the rescue.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    That 1103 neutral pivot is a biachi…

  • gregn

    Based on fractal, I say we get another leg up or so before we reverse short term trend around the 21st: http://screencast.com/t/ZGQ4MmVlYWE

  • clutchshorter

    “Bernanke and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, on their own, bear a large share of responsibility for the 2008 crash, but the Bernanke/Obama combination is potentially even more dangerous. If expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are pursued regardless of market signals, the US will head towards Weimar-style trillion-percent inflation. That would make the government's position easier as its mountain of Treasury debt became worthless, but devastate everybody else's savings and impoverish the American people as Weimar impoverished 1920s Germany. “

  • gregn

    Thinking about some front month calls for a quick ride up.

  • weasel_whisperer

    Here's the source (for the curious, like myself): http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KK1

  • clutchshorter

    Thanks =)

    If Gold is going to $2000, it is really cheap right now.

  • goldpackers

    Important Gann turn today. Low or High? Have to favor high. Need a break of 1098 spx to confirm down to 1065/1080. Right or wrong added shorts this a.m.

    Yesterday could have been a blow off 5th

  • goldpackers

    Technicals look more bearish now than at the 1101 high in October.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Was thinking the same, esp after that little triangle on the SPX completed and made a measured move down. Could see a nice flip back to the upside here…

  • observingquietly

    Based on all of the television commercials for exchanging gold for federal reserve notes that were nowhere to be seen in 2000 in addition to overwhelming bullish sentiment today, I think gold will become much cheaper before it hits $2000.

  • goldpackers

    Faz looks 20.54 to 21.33

  • CorporalCarrot

    Gmak

    Looks like we'll be testing your 1.4820 theory any minute now. I have 1.4822 as the low so far.

  • clutchshorter

    Warning to bears. Please don't start jumping and clapping. I've seen other message boards where bears are starting to celebrate like they've hit the jackpot. This is nothing.

  • goldpackers

    Need a day to kill the dip buyers and change psychology

  • gregn

    Next bounce or so will shake those little bears out.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Theres no sign of that here; nor is there usually.

  • goldpackers

    Have to brake it today or 1120 to 1140 into Thursday/ Friday and more bear ass kicking

  • gregn

    To stay in sync with last fractal, we should retrace to 50% of last low (from LOD 13th) to recent high, which is 1099ish before we bounce higher.

  • goldpackers

    SPX 1108.50 is my give up point for Nov puts

  • goldpackers

    So the rest of you buy puts at 1108.50 – garanteed winner!

  • clutchshorter

    Elliot Wave dude posted some comment on an article :

    “I am almost sure that the big banks in control of the Federal Reserve do not want the dollar to undergo a sudden catastrophic collapse, even though they may intend a slow fall. So they must do something. In order to stop the carry trade, and prevent the complete collapse of the dollar, the Fed MUST and WILL stop printing. All mutual fund flows are still heading OUT of stocks and INTO bond funds, so, absent newly printed dollars, and government stock buying, the bearish patterns will assert themselves. The stock market indexes will surely collapse.

    The outlook for the next few days is probably bullish, because the printing still continues. However, we are on the edge of a catastrophic Elliot Wave “C” DOWN, which may manifest itself within the next few weeks, possibly even this week or next. For the first time in 25 years, I suspect we will see no Hindenburg Omens, this time, because PPT is so active now.

    This “C” wave will take the DOW below the March lows. It will not only impact stocks, but will affect all assets whose prices are bloated in relation to real demand, which includes most commodities other than food. The only thing the government can do is print more dollars. But, it must stop printing, at this juncture. There must be a pause, at least for a few months. If they don't stop goosing stock price upward, we will see a sudden implosion of the dollar, and the economy will shift into hyperinflation Weimar Republic mode.

    In other words, very soon, the dollar will rise rather strongly and stocks will fall. Maybe, that is why Goldman Sachs and other smart players, are heavily short the Nasdaq and the Euro right now.”

  • goldpackers

    RTH should have topped for at least 90

  • gregn

    I would not recommend trading front months during OPX unless you are very comfortable with the market.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    or an hamster

  • gregn

    Where is Mr. Vix? In bed with teddy still?

  • wrc1k

    Yeah – I closed out Dec 09 SPY calls yesterday (hedges against my LEAP puts). Made 30% on those – nice to have a profit once in a while . . .

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    If you remember ES as a whole we are happy

  • gregn

    I started using Januarys last week, I just wanted to set it and forget it to borrow the line from a famous infomercial.

  • gregn

    How does the Elliot guy know what GS is short? I didn't think that firms had to release their short side data.

  • vision_invisible

    I fully agree. They will take the market down, because “they need” (it may not be an intentional planned need, but a general need) to scare the heck out of us, so that when they continue the reflation they have nodding heads. Stimulus 2.0.

    As soon as you see some strong plunge short like there is no tomorrow, and as soon as Stimulus 2.0 rears its ugly head it may be time to take them off and wait.

    However, I do think they want healthcare passed first.

  • ultra
  • vision_invisible

    Ya i am wondering about that too.

  • gregn

    I don't trust charts from those that have misshapen heads.

    P.S. thanks for current count 😉

  • Bart7

    clutchshorter- who was that masked Elliott man who made those comments?

  • Scoops

    I'd actually be interested in reading this article. Have a link by any chance?

  • TransworldDepravity

    Hibernating with a blanket of otm puts? Might be a better strategy. Turn off the monitor and just wait it out.

  • clutchshorter

    It's actually an article about the S&P500 crossing 1100, but the comments are interesting to me.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-all-techni

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    maybe this reversion is a present from the march 2007 BPSPX resistence

    if so then maybe we're at a very interesting point

  • ultra

    That's just…. puppet-ist – damn your eyes, sir!

    Not showing any signs of wanting to play along in any case – think the SPX put lead boots on before it came to work today – if we breach wave i high then all bets are off, but until then..

  • gregn

    Keeping up with last fractal, I think we drop to 1099 before we ascend to make a higher high. We shall see.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    exactly what I thought… if we knew GS tricks…

  • Tronacate

    Market open thurs?……special hours?

  • gregn

    I got fired from my last job for being a puppetist. I was a stage hand for Sesame Street.

  • tradejane

    No jumping and clapping but I did snap my fingers – my European broker has started recommending calls on a number of b$-stocks, for the first time in… 9 months or so.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    you should try applying for GS, experience at manipulating others as you shove your hand up their…. it's a plus

  • gregn

    Where we are at compared to last fractal: http://screencast.com/t/OTM5MmEyNT

  • weasel_whisperer

    I don't think you'd want to know GS tricks, it's not good for your health.

  • ultra

    LOL

    bit more downslide in SPX – curiously unexpected strength from sterling meanawhiles..

  • gregn

    I wonder if the Russian that stole the GS source code was able to sell it to anyone before getting picked up by the FBI.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    What movie was that where the guy is looking through the classifieds for a puppeteer job -very funny.
    …Being John Malkovich i think

  • gregn

    Definitely better than watching this garbage.

  • gsavli

    now, that's some great news 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, unless we take out 1089…it's only noise

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    Where have they been since March ?!!!

  • tradejane

    I know, isn't that wonderful?

    The bad new is this market still has a bounce or two in there. 😛

  • gregn

    I think you are right, I just remember that it was John Cusack.

  • clutchshorter

    I think I figured it out. The reason we are rallying is because one idiot is buying and selling to a bigger IDIOT at a higher price. That bigger idiot is looking to sell to a BIGGERer idiot. This isn't investing. This isn't trading. It's a game of “WHOS the Last IDIOT”

  • Bart7

    yeah, it's the greater idiot (fool) theory…

  • bullethead

    Greater Tuna Theory – alive and well

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    this should end well… http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091117/ap_on_bi_ge

    just in time for X-mas

  • CorporalCarrot

    Ok could all the people who were crying yesterday about Ben Bernanke ruining their Xmas and turning the Dollar into toiler paper please explain todays action. 🙂

    The Old Buck is doing everything in its power to help the bears, but the market is not co-operating 🙂

  • tradejane

    Ahem…does the word “distribution” mean anything to you? 😉 😉

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    it'sthe day for paying the chinese invoices for Xmas inventory?

  • CorporalCarrot

    lol you could be right. I don't know any more. Its just that dollar down -> everyone cries about ben ruining the buck, dollar up and market doesn't co-operate = silence.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    that's what i've been thinking all morning.

  • tradejane

    Well, it's either that or we've had treasury settlement failures again:

    http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/05/naked-sho

    Anyway, active bears beware, Germans are buying up banks again after-hours…

  • weasel_whisperer

    Someone mentioned that it has been in a downtrend for so long, that it will take a few up days to convince people the trend has changed.

  • goldpackers

    Starting to get the feeling the spx will sttle at 1100 Friday

  • CorporalCarrot

    Doesn't that seem like its clutching at straws a bit? Either the market is inextricably linked to the dollar carry trade or its not. Today isnt' a slight move. Dxy is up .8%. Thats a fairly huge move in an index like this. It should cause a reaction if the relationship is as deep rooted as people suggest.

    If today stays the same or equities actually close in the green here which looks very possible, it will be interesting to see what permabear sites like zerohedge have to say after the close, as they normally do an ironic toilet paper post littered with phrases like “as the two Hal 9000 computers that are still trading shuffle 7 spy shares back and forth while the market increases on ever decreasing volume, Ben bernanke gives green light to more destruction of ……”.

    What are their headline writers going to do on a day where the dollar rallies fairly significantly and equities don't tank?

    Incidentally, I should have known that the dollar was going to decouple when yesterday marketwatch did a feature on its' relationship to equities.

  • TransworldDepravity

    Mentioned this last night but look at the year chart on TBT. Large H&S pattern developing with the RS forming currently. Can someone explain to me what the heck is going on with the bond markets.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    gold is higher than yesterday, it's only other funny money that dropped

  • Schwerepunkt

    Historically, USD and equities were not at odds, so a decoupling is actually a return to more normal conditions.

  • Schwerepunkt

    52-week bill auction went well. Bid to cover 3.47.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    another 3 points and we're bear-meat

  • bergs

    Thinking subminuette iv is in and working on the start of submiuette v.

    http://screencast.com/t/N2I0MjNjODgt

  • centerline

    Busy day over here. Just stopping by for a moment. FWIW, check out the VIX. Up today. Possible hammer bottom. Just something to up spirits for those maintaining longer-term short positions. As Berk speculated, and past has shown, Mr. VIX is a potentially great front-runner of trend reversals.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Do you any reason to trust your broker?

  • tradejane

    Check out this article:

    http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/05/naked-sho

    This could very well explain why bonds and the dollar are up so much. I've no way to verified if this is going on right now, though.

  • ultra

    May be…… zero still slumbering tho…. could just be the final distribution

  • Schwerepunkt

    few extreme readings on such a low range day. not surprising no big signals. I'm still waiting to make a trade today.

  • gregn

    Your count appears to have been spot on, I was wrong.

  • ultra

    I was cheating – count would have still been correct at 1099 – would have looked messy tho

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    No participation. Zip, zero. Yawn.

    DX touched on the $75.70 resistance and turned around like it was a brick wall.

    Sitting on the sidelines. I have rope burn from all the wedgies I've gotten from the bulls.

    Jan

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    No participation. Zip, zero. Yawn.

    DX touched on the $75.70 resistance and turned around like it was a brick wall.

    Sitting on the sidelines. I have rope burn from all the wedgies I've gotten from the bulls.

    Jan

  • gregn

    Puppets always cheat and have an affinity for young white girls. Thats what my daddy taught me.

  • gregn

    Puppets always cheat and have an affinity for young white girls. Thats what my daddy taught me.

  • K.I.M.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQh0PTHtHFU&feat

    we're been down so god damn long … it's time to free some bears …

  • centerline

    One would think money flow there would cause reasonable drop in equities. But, nope. No banana.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Maybe PDs using Uncle Sam clamshells to bid.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    1108, that's as far as i goes without GS/FED waves

    place your stops

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Exactly what I am looking at…

    Skål!

  • ultra

    He's been burnt before

  • gregn

    Whom?

  • ultra

    Bored. So here's a long term count for FSLR – nice channel – and I know a lot of folks *hate* this stock, but I'm looking at this and thinking that there is every chance that {a},{b} could resolve as a zig-zag back to the 50% fib – see what ya think anyways…

    http://screencast.com/t/NWJhOGYzYjI

  • ultra

    Your pa

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    looking at this tape, and the waves that I'm seeing…….I have a feeling that we're not going to get a blow out top after the weak PPI data and we're going to get a failed Vth of Wave 5…….

  • Tronacate

    BERK……do you show RIMM still inside the .5 deviation BB ?……..filter showing short but don't enter until it breaks .5 band?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    POSSIBLE short term top on gold

    i count 5 waves up… and it's a failed v

    either that or it was just (i) ending

  • TimV

    Its so frustrating to miss a Geronimo entry by one tick…. especially when the ask price sits on my limit order for 2 bars… arguh.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Adjusted back into net-long exposure here for now. Dollar rally not translating to weaker equities (mentioned here by several and potentially important, imo; especially given that there we and China were having dinner together over this stuff).

    Anyway, too soon to call it a de-couple but it does get your attention.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I know how you feel. The solution is to sell on the bid, buy on the ask. I have missed so many trades trying to get that extra .25 on ES.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    a geronimo long scalp? then we're going to 1020 after a refreshing 1105.5 pause…

  • Schwerepunkt

    housing market index in 3-min (1pm EST).

  • clutchshorter

    I'm tracking RIMM too. The .5 BB band is around $60 right? Do we enter units when it closes inside that the .5 BB or when we see it occur intraday?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Also getting my attention is a new (4me) Chinese name HEAT.
    Up a little much today, perhaps, but looking like a true brkout and this is a rising group in terms of RS (same as the RINO group – Pollution Control-equip).

    I'm scaling in so far, but extremely intrigued even if a little late to the party.
    One thing to note, they did a 2ndary in the hole several weeks ago – priced it at 9 and the phcker opened around 12! …now it is brking out of a 8wk base.

    Burner

  • gregn

    Do you think it's possible that the pros have sold the market and have gone long the dollar and the retailers are now piling into the market, keeping us suspended while the dollar rallies?

  • TimV

    The Geronimo trade is over…. it only lasted 12 minutes for +2.5.

  • Huggybear

    Love The Doors. Listened to them all the time in High School. When we hit 1121 this week, you can play “The End!”

    The brother (Jerry Scheff) of my H.S. swim coach was a studio musician on that album.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Your entry would have been yesterday as is was crossing outside the 0.5 band. You can also enter at any time today, assuming it does not move back within the 0.5 BB.

    Skål!

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Gonna spit out some stocks on the move. TRW,SOHU, MEE and take a look at those ags…..POT on fire.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Are you using EMAs on your BB. I was showing the it crossed outside of the 0.5 BB yesterday, triggering a short entry…

    Skål!

  • gregn

    I bet he is using a different time scale.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Interesting. I would be looking much more bearish on it. I see 1-2, I-II, i-ii, but that could just be wishful thinking…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah. SMA would produce different results. I am using 200 Day EMA…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nice picks. Not thrilled on SOHU, though a push down sure could trigger a short entry. POT missed the original entry, and it is rocking. TRW looks like a nice bull flag, and MEE is just pumpin… Thanks.

    SKål!

  • gregn

    Did you scale out of X based on your system. It looks like a hell of a time to scale into some puts as we are at the neckline.

  • ultra

    LOL – now that *is* bearish – wouldn't you need negative prices for that one to play out?? Should know soon enough, if that channel bottom cedes.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I scaled out of system puts based on the system exit, but left my H/S shorts on as that stop level was not breached…

    Skål!

  • TimV

    How do yall pick which stocks to use the BB system on? Out of curiosity, I just ran a backtest on the NDX100 since jan of 06…decent results…but it would be nice if there was some way to weed out some of the bad ones that chop around a lot.

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I don't know, there were some reasonable inflows from public finally.
    But I don't really focus on the story anyway (personally).
    Also, this is one-day so far and not even over. Something to be aware of at this point is all

  • gregn

    So you trade a single stock using two systems simultaneously? Is that for the sake of comparison?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Nope. It could lose say 95% and still be positive… When you get such large price moves that will make a stock negative, it is usually better to use equality in terms of %s moved and their multiples…

    Skål!

  • gregn

    You ignore the proverbial “National Enquirer” at the checkout line.

  • ultra

    Yeah – joshing in reality – need a log chart to get a realistic view…

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    start at around 12:10?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup. Traded X first on H/S break-out. Then initiated a BTTSSE as the system triggered them. Scaled out of the system trades per the system. The reason I used both is because X is one of one of the better BTTS stocks, so I had no problem tacking those on especially given the H/S appearing to play out. The H/S was good confirmation of the downtrend, giving me more confidence in the system trades. Of course, as you will see if you follow my system, the first series of entries are often stopped out (about B/E), and sometimes even the second series of entries. However, we all know what Ed says… “One good trend pays for then all.”

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, I am used to getting heckled about my low price targets. BSC at 10, LEH at 15 (while these stocks were triple digits). BIDU to 150, CME to 150. Etc, Etc… As you can see though, I wasn't too far off last time.

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Question for you… What are you using to backtest this, or did you do it by hand. I would be most curious to see your results.

    I pick stocks that 1) I am familiar with 2) are high beta 3) have a tendency to trend (and that is the most important one) 4) have a long $$ value to fall… Right now I have a list of 20-25 tickers that I am watching for entries…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    11:01 – 11:13 Eastern time…

    Skål!

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Man you were rht about SOHU! Thanks for the feedback!

  • gregn

    Correction: you went short before the H/S breakout, if my memory serves, you went short during the forming of the right shoulder.

  • TimV

    Ameritrade Strategy Desk
    Results: http://bit.ly/gqLGT

    Using the 200/0.75 and 200/0.5 BB.

    Im not familiar with the program… I just used preset BB entry code, and modified it to use your BB#s. It worked though… it even will give you charts showing you entries/exits….

    Let me know if you want me to run it on any stocks for you… its pretty simple once its set up.

    Tim

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    check out CELG

  • Huggybear

    X is one of the best stocks to daytrade, IMO. It's what I call a “smooth trader.” Intraday trends are clean with very small wicks on the candles and often moves a full point intraday with very little retrace and no stop sweeps. Reversals are also pretty easy to see.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I agree. And it often has a tendency to continue to move in the same direction for a couple of days…

    Skål!

  • TimV

    Using EMAs on Prophet, I have it crossing on Friday….now Im wondering if I have something set up wrong…

  • TimV

    BTW, I set it up using 5k on each BB.

  • ultra

    speaking of BIDU, I see big o/i for the jan 11 150 puts – is that you and mole? 😉

  • Schwerepunkt

    This puny range is rendering my indicators impotent.

  • K.I.M.

    🙂 Well nobody knows for sure. But fact that EURUSD trendline is broken for second time and that this time it may not be false breakout still remains 🙂

  • Tronacate

    BERK……I just set the period to 200 in the BB on tradestation……they might not be ema…….I might have to dig around on how to change that setting…..

  • clutchshorter

    Wow, wish there was an option on TOS for that.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Wow… Thanks. I will need to dissect that a bit, but it is nice to see positive results every time I see backtested results…

    Actually, I have a list of stocks that I am trading with the system that I wouldn't mind being backtested if you have the time, and don't mind. I haven't been able to set up one of my back-testing simulations due to program updates and lack of time.

    One question though. Was this using a 200SMA or 200EMA for the BBs? If it is an SMA that makes me feel better, as the EMA should produce even better results. Most places haven't given me an option to backtest the BB with an EMA, therefore I much code and code until not only have I changed the standard BB to a BBEMA, but then have to work the strategies out too.

    Skål!

  • molecool

    NEED YOUR HELP GUYS!

    Do you have problems accessing this site? Is it slow? My hosting provider keeps insisting that it's me and I would like to validate that.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    Very slow. Hard to post.

  • Anonymous

    During certain portions of the day, it is very slow. At least 10 times I was not able to even access your site. Frequently, posts do not update so I have to press refresh to get the new posts.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yeah, on zooming in, it appears you could have entered as early as Thursday. You are set up right, I was just too lazy to zoom in….

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    You know how to do the sma to ema on tradestation??……it would be nice to automate the trading strategy or least have a scanner for a nice selection of prospects.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hummm probably fibs, and higher highs and lows with some zero to boot…

    strange that it didnt' go for the 12:10 movement

  • Huggybear

    No problems here. I'm using firefox

  • TimV

    I cant tell in the program… ill look around to see if I can figure it out… but looking at the BB on one the chart for RIMM, it appears it is using the SMA.

    Here is what the code looks like… Im not sure how to force it to use EMA.

    Bar[Close,D] < BollingerBands[Lower,Close,200,0.50,D] AND Bar[Close,D,1] >= BollingerBands[Lower,Close,200,0.50,D,1]

    Id be happy to backtest anything… Ill send you an email so you have my addy.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    they are SMA in tradestation. Open up the indicator and change that “SMA” to “EMA” in all occurrences, verify and save. It should switch it to an EMA…

    That is part of the problem I have. Seems only Prophet recognized the value of an BBEMA…

    Skål!

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I had problems this AM logging onto the zero, but everything is smooth on my end now…

    Skål!

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I don't have any problems, but this morning I had some issues accessing sites like yahoo, cnn, etc. I suspect a domain name server went down somewhere on the internet between where I am and those servers. It may be that whichever servers you have to hop through from where you are to where ES resides have been affected.

    My ping time to ES is 35ms right now.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes slow. But content is great! 🙂

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I was wondering why it is always with the green bar updating and I write much faster than it appears…

    it's not disqusT, on the main page, same crap
    some code error

    Detalhes do erro da página Web

    Agente do Utilizador: Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 8.0; Windows NT 5.1; Trident/4.0; .NET CLR 1.1.4322; .NET CLR 2.0.50727; .NET CLR 3.0.4506.2152; .NET CLR 3.5.30729)
    Carimbo de data/hora: Tue, 17 Nov 2009 18:36:42 UTC

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    best regards

  • Tronacate

    Gotcha……that explains the entry difference on RIMM I'm sure.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    my ping is 54, but I'm in europe, so it's acceptable, you must have some errors in this post's code

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Sure would. EMAs work much better for high beta stocks.

    Skål!

  • centerline

    Here we go. SPX breakout.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    keep you eyes on IBM…could breakout soon here.

  • ultra

    s'ok for me on the site – it's just the zero is awol

  • Nightwind

    Berk, have you used Acceleration Bands in lieu of BB? I just started playing with them.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    IHS gallore, one small, one big, big pointing to 1114

  • tradejane

    Mine's 133 and that's totally unacceptable – if this is due to my own provider.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    No, I have seen a couple of people using them though. I like the BBs for their statistical properties…

    Discovered anything interesting I should know about as I am always open for improvement? 😛

    Skål!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Aren't Keltner Bands preferred by traders these days?

  • gregn

    Buy S&P — Terranova, Buy “Stock Market” (Gary Kaminsky), Sell US Dollar (Peter Schiff, Seymour).

  • Nightwind

    Can't say yet….just started messing around them the last couple of days.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Not by this trader. As far as I know though, they are pretty similar to the 0.5 BB that I use.

    Skål!

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    “you lucky b”$#”#stard” (with monty python voice)

    I'm getting timeouts now

  • WTFed

    No problem at all.

  • molecool

    Sorry guys – I cannot post right now or do anything – have been trying to sort out technical problems all morning. The damn site is slow and everything on my backend is melting down as well. Have not even had breakfast yet – need to take a step back.

    Berk – if you could put up a quick comment cleaner I'd appreciate it.

  • Schwerepunkt

    KBs are not hugely different, but they use average true range in their calculation, as opposed to EMA's.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    have you installed aditional antivirus or anti malware stuff lately?

  • Me_XMan

    WTF! Bears couldn't hold red day today.

  • kryxtal

    Wow. Just wow.

  • Tronacate

    BERK…….made the change in the BB easy language ……change from AverageFC to Xaverage……

  • tradejane

    I've been getting those too. Something is weighting on the website.

  • Tronacate

    Still a ways to go today….

  • tradejane

    From my end it seems the bulls are preparing some sort of a bounce tomorrow.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I've had no connection problems here, but I do not use Zero/Geronimo. I do clean my cache regularly.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hey berk, for the comment cleanner you can call it “fleeced bears” and use these photos

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/artic

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    still getting timeouts and 170 ms replies

    something's wrong but typing is working now

  • CorporalCarrot

    It could have been worse folks. Imagine what today would have been like if the Euro hadn't tanked 🙂

  • ultra

    jebus – they are really feeling it

    *sigh* – I don't know why I foolishly expected this w5 to go by in a flash, but I can see it getting strung out until opex at this rate…

  • Tronacate

    I think when the selling starts…….it's going to be a little like a run called Waterfall ( if I remember the name right) in Park City…..starts out not so steep…..then drops off a cliff into a mogul field

  • Tronacate

    Waife was watching dancing with the stars last night…..see that Blonde from Poland I think…..HOLY SHIT…….

  • molecool

    Nope – my ISP seems to be fucking around…

  • TransworldDepravity

    Can we get a possible comment cleaner? As I'm ready to club a baby bull.

  • centerline

    Wow. Bears are really fugly without the fur. Really cool pics.

  • Tronacate

    This market reminds me of High School football…….run the same play until they stop it…….

  • centerline

    Nailed it. Nothing more confusing sometimes than doing the same thing again and again. Freaks people out.

  • Tronacate

    Fuckin' a……..”they wouldn't do that AGAIN”……..then sure enough…….

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    Berk, you have something to go?
    I can post in 15 if not – let me know

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    anyone seeing an ascending wedge for the last 3 hours ?

  • ultra

    A bit of senseless MM that probably won't play out

    http://screencast.com/t/OGE0MzA4

  • kryxtal

    SPX just filled its gap from this morning.

    Seems like gaps down get filled the same day, gaps up take weeks or months to fill.

  • centerline

    works wonders to scare the crap out of the resistance and removes the natural pressure that would otherwise prevent us from “melting up” on low volume. Too many bears scared to touch this thing again until after a correction starts results in a delay of a correction starting. Market rises to extremes (overthrow) until the bulls start killing each other instead. The bears pounce in then, and the exits get crammed full.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Centerline,

    I take it from your posts you believe we are very close to a top (at least short term). ?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    I'm good to go in a few minutes, if Berk doesn't beat me to it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    as the legendary Yogi Berra said “it's deja vu all over again”

    and talking of that legend, we bears ” We made too many wrong mistakes”

  • Me_XMan

    FACK!

  • gregn

    To use another relevant quote of his, “It ain't over till it's over.”.

  • centerline

    I do think so. Hate to say it though. I think we are reaching a critical point here where we either get a decent correction or the market magic continues through year end at least. In just playing the odds, I find myself favoring some decent downside here sooner than later.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Go ahead Michael, I will be busy for the rest of the day. Thanks.

    Skal!

  • tradejane

    I 've decided to become a cynic about the whole thing. But one thing I won't do is eat beef right now!

  • http://www.flickr.com/photos/dabasia/sets/ Croozer

    I think we're now painting the 5th wave……..the 5th of an ED……

  • TransworldDepravity

    Just say no to Kobe. hehe.

  • Tronacate

    Just a little insight into housing in AZ….talked to the plant manager of a large roof tile manufacturer…….down to 11 employees from 125…….closing down production for over a month starting this month…….sees NO demand increase.

    I know fundamentals don't matter…….but it is ugly here……Chapman car dealer(huge) has over 200 layed off

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    NEW POST is up
    …I still have to place the image, but text is done

  • bshah

    This is the most hypocrate US stock market and the society I have seen… Where we pompously advertise on cleanness, transparency, accuracy and on the other hand openly abuse and manipulate the market as we please … only by few selective interested parties/indviduals.. Obviously, I don't have written evidence, but open enough from the way stock market prices are being controlled ( PPT and other teams ready to launch counter attacks ) that in entire day, market can't even go red to more than 50 pts..even with some bad data.. fock it.. this is not TA or noise or fundamentals… it's bs from a..h..s…

  • clutchshorter

    Financials are still weak. SPY and DIA volume is extremely low. But who cares, nothing can take this market down.

    Unemployment Bad – Market Rally
    Retail #s Bad – Market Rally
    Dollar Crash – Market Rally
    Terrorist Attack – Market Rally
    Miley Cyrus Leaked Photos – Market Rally
    Sarah Palin on Oprah – Market Rally

  • roncofooddehydrator

    NEW POST!

  • Me_XMan

    Unbelievable. Wow.

  • TransworldDepravity

    how's your steak tartare hmm?
    Make or break time. I say break as it is looking awfully tired.
    http://www.screencast.com/t/YjJjNjJkZD

  • tradejane

    The blue cheese sauce goes very well with that. 🙂

    I'm trying not to get too excited here but I agree that both sectors look tired these days even when they are in the green.

    Imo, a drop below 43.44 (give or take a few of points) would open the door to 42.28. Until that happens we are looking at 45 or so.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    The blue cheese sauce goes very well with that. 🙂

    I'm trying not to get too excited here but I agree that both sectors look tired these days even when they are in the green.

    Imo, a drop below 43.44 (give or take a few of points) would open the door to 42.28. Until that happens we are looking at 45 or so.

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