Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Manic Depressive Market Guide

Manic Depressive Market Guide

by The MoleApril 5, 2021

I looked at the VX futures term structure this morning, i.e. the series of VX futures contracts from now into late this year, and something occurred to me. For over six months now I have been plotting various changes in this curve in exhausting detail and the story it’s been telling us has remained largely identical. Big trouble ahead! So how come the market continues to push higher and higher with the SPX officially marking new all time highs as well as reaching the coveted $4,000 mark?

The graph above shows us two curves – a yellow one and a red one. The yellow curve basically represents a window into the past while he red curve  shows us what’s going on right now.  What immediately stands out is that the market appears to need to book some time with a good shrink as the anticipation of ‘trouble ahead’ appears to have become a constant.

But what we’ve been getting instead is something completely different of course. A very clean series of higher highs and higher lows in fact. The IV Z-Score has dropped into the basement and we may need to bring out some excavation equipment to get it back.

The VIX is now officially back in sub-20 territory which on one hand is very exciting as we may be able to start loading up on some medium to long term hammock spreads.

But not so fast! There are some important developments we need to be cognizant about:


It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c
PayPal: https://paypal.me/evilspeculator