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Meanwhile Over At The Turtle Race
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Meanwhile Over At The Turtle Race

by The MoleJuly 23, 2018

I’m running into some data feed related problems this morning, which made catching up across the board a bit painful. But frankly it doesn’t look like I missed much of anything, thus reaffirming my notion last Tuesday that the rest of the week would amount to a nothing burger. Well, I’m back now, so can someone please throw some meat into this tape?

Mid summer is rarely a fun time to trade and 2018 obviously won’t be the exception. Surprisingly the E-Mini hasn’t gone anywhere since last Tuesday despite quite a bit of central bank related turmoil.

And guess what – we’re going to get a bit more this week. Oh joy!

My ongoing long campaign miraculously survived the various stabs lower thus far and I am keeping my trailing stop at about 2.5R.

The USD/JPY stopped out at ISL on Thursday and has been falling ever since. There is a case to be made for a long position here near the 25-day SMA and a cluster of Net-Line Sell Levels however I would prefer to see a retested spike low in place first.

The EUR/USD was supposed to hedge against the USD/JPY somewhat but I should have known better that both would be going through the motions. There’s simply way too much turmoil and uncertainty in the forex markets right now due to the glorious mess that Merkel and her globalist cronies in Brussels have created over the past few years.

I’ve said it before and I am going to say it again: I have a hard time imagining how the Euro is going to survive much beyond this decade. Hard times coming but the sheeple over here in Europe are still partying as if it was 1999.

On that node, I really miss the 20th century. At least we had popular music that didn’t regularly trigger my gag reflex. On the up side metal really is experiencing a Renaissance of sorts, great time for all us degenerates 😉

So Trump stomped on the Dollar again last week and the DX has now reached its critical inflection point near 94. A drop below that most likely rolls over a bunch of stops and will lead us back lower again. The snail race to the bottom continues across all fiat currencies.

Perhaps I should start charging you guys in Bitcoin. It’s been strengthening over the past week but its big hurdle at 8000 is now in sight. Like with the Dollar this will be a crucial inflection point for BTC and a hop across could re-ignite some of that unbridled optimism that apparently seems to have disappeared since late last year.

IMO this has been a very productive period for BTC as well as other crypto currencies. I mentioned the Gartner hype cycle earlier this year and as anticipated then the entire crypto industry has been dredging through the valley of disillusionment ever since.

Although the current gyrations are painful and frustrating to most crypto aficionados the technical context that they produce will establish important technical support levels further down the line. So pucker up – not all is lost!

Slim Pickings

Anyway, I don’t see anything I’d want to touch with a ten foot pole right now. As a consolation: If you think you have it tough then just imagine being a financial blogger right now. This is probably going to end up being the toughest year for me yet, at least when it comes to keeping you guys entertained.

Well, better luck tomorrow 😉

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Richard Adler

    Dull to be sure. But if the race by currencies to remain competitive (ie: devalue), should be interesting buy setups in precious metals and commodities. Looking for retests and oversold conditions to start to build long positions.

  • Brishort

    Hello Mole!
    Hello fellow rats!

    Very quiet for many weeks as I am starting a new business, notably in the crypto world! Not launched yet, but getting there.

    Mole, I understand the pain re: “If you think you have it tough then just imagine being a financial blogger right now.” Taking a few months off from the market just showed me how destructive the game has become with its predatory algo trading dominating too much of the volume.

    Not that a trader should complain, just trade the tape…but the stamina minimum requirement needed to trade such tape has definitely increased in the last few years.

    As a small consolation to you, I kept my more Zero subscription (member since nearly your 1st year!!!!) despite not looking at it much these days. Hang in there, cycles are part of life and this one too shall pass. Crypto comments clearly are the best addition you did to this blog and I wish you many new subscribers based on it.

    ES still has some of the best writing in the financial blogosphere. You are the only relevant reading i keep. Still the only worthwhile comments reading I do too. And the zero, although I don’t use it much right now, still my best favorite go to first chart, all the time… everytime.

    Take care and all the best to you and all fellow rats for this turtle summer.
    Brishort

  • Brishort

    Actually, anything that has a real blockchain should survive. Anything that is built on top of a blockchain better be A+ top of the line project to deserve surviving and be much more that just an ICO excuse for a flash in the pan quick buck.

  • StockTalker

    Dollar inverted on the daily, /NQ leading. Here we go:)

  • Ian Naugler

    What’s a “real” blockchain? I haven’t seen a single blockchain project other than Bitcoin that makes any sense, it’s just hype and buzzwords. Look at EOS, 4 billion to create an absolute governance joke that’s already been shutdown 3 times

  • daverg

    welcome back, hope you had a good one. A trivia note, speaking of slim pickings. Slim Pickens was the only actor to bit the crap out of Hoss Cartwright on Bonanza. On three separate appearances he kicked ole Hoss’s butt. Slim was an old school bad A$$.

  • HD

    BTC 7700 was a level GG and I were targeting a few weeks ago. Inflection point indeed.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey Brishort – long time no see! Thanks for keep supporting the blog during your absence, greatly appreciated 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hope so – was getting tired of memorizing all those damn projects.

  • Brishort

    Anything that has a Proof-of-Work running behind and that you can mine. Bitcoin is like a 4k black-and-white TV. Very very nice at what it does, but hardly with all the features we can think of.

    Monero is a project I particularly like. Forget the bullshit about how it si is used. it is what it represents and the quality of it s code that really matters.Clearly with many improvements still to be made.

    If I had to pick, Bitcoin, Litecoin and Monero are the best blockchains at this moment.

    Euthereum is a suberb genius idea, like creating color TV was. It just isn’t mature enough to handle all of its promises. It is more like 16 colors at the moment, far from 4k tv….

  • HD
  • Brishort

    I will be back though…. just not sure when at this moment.

  • StockTalker

    Believe you want to be short gold until expiration. Long after

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    wait….you mean the girl is *green*?
    we all know why color TV’s were purchased.
    😉

    https://i.yomyomf.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/yvonne-craig-green-girl-star-trek-1.jpg

  • HD

    interesting! kinda the opposite of equities that spent the entire week >2800 until OPEX and then sellers took it back below.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    let’s just say…”I’m not bearish anymore”.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYXBT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p82764503964
    and just to avoid any Gartman finger pointing accusation, dig a few days back. I was talking to Ian about buku support.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It’s going to be an exciting week.

    “The highlights include Alphabet on Monday, Verizon, AT&T and Harley Davidson on Tuesday, Coca-Cola, General Motors, Facebook and Boeing on Wednesday, Intel and Amazon on Thursday, and Exxon Mobil and Chevron on Friday. In Europe UBS reports on Tuesday and Royal Dutch Shell on Thursday. It’s still relatively early stages so far with just 86 S&P 500 companies having reported but an impressive 81 of those companies – or 94% – have beat earnings expectations, while a still solid 65 have beaten revenue expectations.”

  • StockTalker

    Yes, seems to be like clockwork

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Try not to get triggered with this one. It’s on the charts.

    Last year SPX was choppy rally too. POTUS threatens NK with “Fire and Fury”, 3% hit before EOY surge. 18% screamer!
    Now we have Iran threat, a backtest of 2742 after choppy rally could set up EOY surge.
    Of course NK immediately threatened POTUS with GUAM and called him a “funny guy”
    Can’t wait to see what Iran says….. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/139d8aafe491257bdf6c1b3c3e029c2ec57c3478e6d8b7607e863bd4a57ff6a1.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I almost posted his pic actually – but then thought that nobody would get the reference.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e64166709285f39f95d92d0b5a2747d3cd0f36e18262429ef87fb5924ddf4c69.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS took profit on short with bounce off it’s 5 ema Retain 1/2 short position. SPX Yes opened small short probe on Friday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I object!
    charts of that magnitude should not have daily squiggles, switch to monthly candles!!
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG SPX relatively flat so far with strong earnings reports
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG IBM on track with post previous thread .. Watch 144
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also HD per chart and comment previous thread watch for a breakout point failure 204 was the 1.272 extension Busy day so have a great day GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Be careful in that hot weather 83 for a high and 50 for a low here today
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Previous thread posted a target 30.98 if 30.27 exceeded
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Heads up 10ty, HY, and RE no shit important.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Curious model there.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Don’t fight the “Hedgies” Julie riding their coat tails
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m just an amateur. But so were the Wright Brothers.
    😉

    https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=1469463

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO 14.11 very strong support . A bearish close below … !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone today? Missed me last week? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing geat Chief ! Yup We missed you last week !
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Crude in dump mode

  • StockTalker

    Dollar about to rally here.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ST Yup ! USO 14.11 strong support USO per post below
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Weekly not looking good and monthly has turned down. Look out below IMO.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys There was a contest to name a thoroughbred colt in Kentucky … I entered and submitted the name Coffee Break I received an e mail minutes ago I am in the top five and the final decision will be Friday. I might win a race horse ! OMG !
    JULIE…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sounds like the name of a Burro/Mule, leave it to Julie to fall into clover.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCK5d9nUkAAZAZw.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ps. Make sure they don’t want your First Interstate Bank account, to rescue money from Nigeria.
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Equities may be snoozing,
    someone’s dumping the safety of TLT.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX%3ATLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79854663073

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Equities ready to dump

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2020 Kentucky Derby …… Into the Stretch … Going for Home it’s Coffee Break by 20 lengths …. At the wire It’s Coffee Break by 23 lengths winning going away and a new Derby record !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I see why Grizz keeps you to one glass only.

  • HD

    If that doesn’t work out you can always make some glue 🙂

  • HD

    Appreciate the BTC comments. Seems like it’s been a while for that topic.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL !
    JULIE

  • HD

    You Nailed it! Nice

  • mSquare

    vac·u·ous!!!

    ˈvakyo͞oəs/adjective. adjective: vacuous
    having or showing a lack of thought or intelligence; mindless.”a vacuous smile”synonyms:silly, inane, unintelligent, insipid, foolish, stupid, fatuous, idiotic, brainless, witless, vapid, vacant, empty-headed; informaldumb, moronic, brain-dead, fluffy, fluffball
    “that vacuous laugh of his drives me nuts”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Again watch for a failed backtest 2020 Preakness …. It’s in the mud and Coffee Break is the best horse in the mud. There off and there they Go ! Coffee Break jumps to the lead ! Looks like another wire to wire win for Coffee Break ! ! ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/beb404f5aa07239de7864a2ffa557147fe0096a6921cc20dfac2bec1e1ea8ac9.png JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What is it with you and horses today?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I have a good chance to win a race horse. It’s a colt . A contest to name the thoroughbred colt and I submitted the name Coffee Break. This a.m I received an e mail and I am in the top five with a decision to be made Friday. Crazy ! I am excited I called my husband when I received the e mail and he O Roarked on the phone.
    JULIE

  • Ian Naugler

    Litecoin and Monero are fine test nets for Bitcoin but that’s about it, I’m interested in how you describe Bitcoin as black and white tv…it was the first smart contract platform. The developers were just intelligent enough to realize the “money” needed to come first, contracts can come later. Bitcoin already has superior coding for contracts and as ETH has shown (after losing 100’s of millions in broken smart contract code) they don’t have a secure coding language nor a blockchain that can scale.

  • StockTalker

    Oh, you will know. All the ducks are in the proper place here for a tumble.

  • HD

    SPX from the April low for this wave: 164,147,100,118(so far) monthly point range.
    Mean 132, w 8.4 range on VIX

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Previous thread I commented candle pattern was a Mat Hold and expecting one more pop to the upside which may possibly be occurring. I have a small short probe from Friday and will retain
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • StockTalker

    Market in need of a defibrillator

  • HD

    Nobody? How did April end? May? June?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG One year Miss Oregon was in the top 5 and won the Crown Miss America. I am in the top 5 and gonna win a race horse ! Ya Gotta Believe GG !
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    That’s a beauty

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I believed I would reach a third sabbatical.
    yeah, tell me about it Belief.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I hereby grant you a 3rd sabbatical. Please leave the extreme heat immediately.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Shorting HD A small position
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS Love the EXAS short from Friday. Took profits and retain 1/2 position Initial target 64 and will evaluate
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Re Shorting USO Targets 13 56 and 13.27
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day ! Can’t wait for Friday ! Remember Coffee Break to the Winner’s Circle !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Friday? Long way to go sweety!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll go with fluffy for $200.

  • daverg

    so i am a nobody now ?? :O 🙂

  • Brishort

    Re: “I’m interested in how you describe Bitcoin as black and white tv…it was the first smart contract platform.”

    Interesting that you picked up on this. Actually happy you did.

    I would shortly describe the 3 following as starting elements of why the black and white reference, i.e., Bitcoin does what it does extremely well. It is just not “features rich” enough. Itkey parts as the most important:

    – Bitcoin can do smart contracts, but space per block/scale is cruelly missing in the infrastructure. Difficult to see how it can underpin any long term infrastructure. It is the most expensive computing power you can buy, so you need to cherry pick extremely precisely what you want to put on it. The integration with off-chains, alt chains or virtual chains is not mature enough yet.

    – Capacity is still an issue Lightning and other tricks to make it faster all come with trade-offs. that cannot be “renovated” in the existing Bitcoin, most likely better if a new blockchain is engineered from scratch.

    And finally privacy. Monero has the right view on this with ring signatures. If blockchain technology is to notably underpin all the ID system of the future, it needs new and future tools for properly proving privacy, yet facilitate efficient private exchanges.

    Hence the view that a better all encompassing technology will absorb those concerns and be the future blockchain “4k color tv” of the future.