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Merry Christmas!

Merry Christmas!

by The MoleDecember 24, 2009

Being an evil Mole has its responsibilities – one of is a strict adherence to being politically incorrect and thus to insist on wishing everyone unfortunate enough to know me personally a Very Merry Christmas. Let me take this opportunity to extend the very same to all my intrepid stainless steel rats. But unlike all those other schmucks who insist on sending you those sanctimonious holiday wishes printed on glossy recycled cardboard toilet paper I for one don’t show up empty handed:

That’s right, this is Mole’s Christmas present for all Evil Speculator addicts and it’s called Rammstein (you know it was coming). It’s a little token of appreciation that will be available free for a few months to anyone who ever signed up as a member in the past. More about this below.

The performance data you see above has been back tested and then forward tested for about a month now – admittedly, that’s not too long. But I have to say that Rammstein kept on printing coin through the most tiresome and annoying tape I had the displeasure of enduring – the past two months, which were outright nasty even by 2009 standards. Will it continue to produce like this? Probably not – but what I know right now is that it performs very well in insidious sideways and gapping tape – which is surprising really.

So, the right mindset to look at Rammstein is ‘insurance for 2010’. Why? Because if we actually ever get to Primary wave {3} I believe that Rammstein will start having trouble and that evil.rat and resident.evil will spike up and run off into the sunset. Why do I believe that? Glad you asked. Because Rammstein started to work very well right in June – before that it was running sideways more or less with a slight trend up. Evil.rat and resident.evil both performed magnificently right until June and then started to slowly drift down – not horribly so, but both had difficulties in the last few months. There appears to be a distinct inverse correlation in respect to the timing.

So what happened around June – you might ask? I looked around and finally the scales dropped off my eyes as I realized what might be happening here. Mr. VIX dropped below the 30 mark around that time frame – that’s what. So, my current take is that Rammstein works well in nasty Fed manipulated tape and that evil.rat and resident.evil will make a Rocky Balboa style come back should we dip into Primary {3}.

The approach of giving it away for few months is based on lessons learned with evil.rat and resident.evil. Quite frankly, I want you guys to bank some coin before you start paying for the service. If it then starts failing us at least you’ve made some money beforehand and perhaps it’ll also give you the mental fortitude to sit out a bad month or so, should thathappen. Rammstein also needs to prove itself to you guys, obviously curve fitting could deceive us here, although the last five weeks give me hope that this is not the case.

If you start banking coin with Rammstein in the interim and you feel like giving something back you can always sign up for a month or two of Zero goodness – after all it’s only 49 bucks. Should Rammstein perform well into March then I would probably consider making it subscription only but at that point I think nobody would complain about having to pay up. Well, at least most of you – someone always complains for sure 😉

So, that’s it – if you are interested in receiving the signal then you can sign up right now on your membership page. If you ever signed up as a subscriber in the past just log into your membership page and then select Rammstein from the the drop down on the right side of the page:

That’s it – the membership is free but won’t extend automatically, so in a month from now you’ll have to do the same thing again.

A few pointers:

  • There will be no support during the free period – nada, nichts, niente, zilch, none. However, the alerts will be very similar to what you’ve experienced with evil.rat and resident.evil, so if you were ever a sub here you know the drill.
  • Alerts will be email only and SMS alerts through my gateway will not be enabled (obviously). But you can of course receive SMS alerts through the gmail filter as explained on the evil.rat and resident.evil pages.
  • There will be a Rammstein page that will be updated frequently – but probably not before the middle of January.
  • The stop is currently around 40 ticks, but that might change once I start optimizing it a little more. There is actually a trailing stop that moves after a trade pushes a few ticks into the green. I still have to add the notifications for that.
  • There is no ‘target’ – the strategy stays in a trade until it either gets stopped out, runs into an inverse signal, or the day ends.
  • Yes, there are long and short trades.
  • The performance data shown above is based on one single contract and no pyramiding. I leave all that fancy stuff up to you.
  • The signal will be live starting next Monday – if you sign up before that you will start receiving email alerts, assuming the strategy triggers. Of course you can subscribe anytime whenever you feel like.
  • Rammstein exits at the end of the day, just like any other strategy I have developed. No holding of overnight positions – I don’t enjoy playing Russian roulette (however, I do enjoy strip poker with hot Russian ladies – you know where to find me).

That’s all I can think of right now. I propose you sign up and then just watch the signal for a while. Once you think that you developed a good feel for it – or perhaps you paper traded it for a bit – then put a small amount of real coin on it and see what happens. Again, I suggest you play it safe and use this as insurance against possibly more nasty sideways tape that might extend into next year.

As you know – I don’t have a crystal ball and as traders we have no control over how much money we can make on a given day. The tape either moves in favor of our trading strategies or it doesn’t. But what we can control is risk and thus the amount of money we lose. And that’s where the rubber meets the road in that it is the difference between hobby traders and the pros. For the experienced trader learns that nobody knows the future and that the game is all about edge, probability, money management, and most of all controlling your risk exposure.

I hope that Rammstein will help you assess you risk in that it might allow you to offset losses in non-bearish and non-bullish tape – meaning, the same kind of crap we’ve seen in the past few months. That is daytime sideways action preceded by nasty overnight directional surprises. Not the tape most retail traders can make money in – but perhaps Rammstein will give us an edge in such a climate.

Actually I hope that Rammstein will fail in the end as this will most likely mean that Primary {3} is upon us and we get long drops to the downside. If that happens we’ll know soon enough – but if the Feds manage to stretch this thing out for another few months or perhaps even throughout 2010 then at least we might have something to work with. I for one like to be prepared – that’s why I’m still standing today.

Wishing you a very merry Christmas and if you don’t hear from me next week – a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year. I hope 2010 will be a good one for all of us and I am looking forward to seeing you all again here in early January. In the meantime I’ll be a bit quiet here but gmak and Michael might put up a post here and there.

And finally a very politically correct Happy Holidays to all hedonists, infidels,  atheists, and misfits out there 😉



About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • anotherone

    Wow Mole. That looks great. I look forward to tracking its performance.

    And a most excellent Merry Christmas to you and everyone else here.

  • SpeedSkt1


    Merry Christmas…….looking forward to taking a closer look at the strategy in the coming weeks…….

  • CastorTroy

    What's the deal with having so many posts on the front page? It really hogs a ton of resources and bandwidth for no reason

  • DontNeedPaidTradingSites

    “the game is all about edge, probability, money management, and most of all controlling your risk exposure.”

    Agreed. Unless you're paper trading like TBTSNBN, one can't just swing for the fences.

  • Bear Claw

    Stopped by to say Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

  • Gerbil_gold

    Twas the night before Christmas, when all through the hole
    Not a creature was stirring, not even a mole.

    Happy New Year's Evil guys.

  • dreadwin

    Merry Xmas, Mole! While the year has been decidedly unprofitable on the bearish side, I have learned a great deal by visiting this place. Thanks.

  • TimV

    Thanks, Mole. Merry Christmas everyone.

    I hope you all have the hap hap happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap danced with Danny effing Kaye.

  • rosocecasita

    Merry Christmas all!

  • Biowolf

    O Tannenbaum, o Tannenbaum, mir geht beim Arsch die Haut net zusam.

    Bet you didn´t know that version.

    Nevertheless, Frohe Weihnacht, Mole.

  • molecool

    Merry Christmas to you too.

  • CastorTroy

    Merry Christmas 😉

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Wishing you all a Merry Christmas and the Best of Health Happiness and Prosperity in 2010!!!!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Meery Christmas mole, and thanks for Rammstein

  • gsavli

    Wow, that IS a great christmas present. Wow and thanks (for everything you do).

  • goldpackers

    Thanks, Mole!
    Merry Christmas Morning to all!

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Now with some extra time between family Christmas meals

    First of all… Merry Christmas everyone (hey, though I no loger count myself in the club I was baptized and it's his hollyday, stolen fair and square fom the pagan winter solistice) and it's about friends (which often includes family and extended family)

    Second, thank you Santa Mole for a chance to see one of your black boxes in action, I'm curious (though I don't scalp because I only do ETFs and pay an hefty 25 bp + fee for each side of the trade)

    Third, it's Hamster time…

    1. day before yesterday everything pointed to another rise, we were floating, again, on unconvincing positive… so what did santa bring?

    2.SPX:GOLD we're back at MA104 after DROPING… yes, it was a fall though we closed slightly above the 104… double top at 1.1 or drop to <.91… we'll see

    3. BPSPX still unconvincingly above MA13 (in fact top of the 13 BB but…lousy slope, pause at ma52 and going to 79.5 where serious resistence awaits or droping right here? )

    4. GOLD 1114 should be a malke or break level, we should get there next trading day and decide UP or DOWN, 1160 looks extremely promising

    5. SPX (nominal, realm of the living dead)if we don't break and sustain 1108 on the downside we should be in hamburger hill in one week time, yes 1145 plus or minus something

    6. Next trading day… gold up, equities down, spx:gold 1.0, maybe 1113 for gold and 1108 for equities as extremes, bpspx reverses to 77.5. Nothing exciting and still leaving everything in limbo

    Well the hamster has given his best as a Xmas present, but santa ben doesn't help

    Merry Christmas Rats and other Evil Criters

    p.s. Mole, I took the time to also make a full comment, hope you also enjoy it and it helps you feel it is worth it 😉

  • Red Dragon Leo

    Merry Christmas to you Mole, and all your Evil Rats too!

  • RUFCrazy2

    Thanks Mole (and Eric) and Merry Christmas to you !

    Most of my models have failed beginning in Oct 2009 as well due I believe to the lower volatility environment. I have a few that made decent coin in recent months, but unlike my other models which start in 2007 that KILLED the higher volatility bear market from Sept 2008 thru Aug/Sept 2009, the only ones working now are optimized from Jan 2009 forward and like I said, a couple of them have made decent coin since July 2009 in walkforwards, but I personally have a hard time trusting them since the walkforward periods are so short (july-Dec). I vastly prefer my proven bear market models which have awesome performance over around 12 full months in high volatility periods Sept 08-Sept09).

    Can't wait for the bear to return – will it ever ???? This pig is so overbought is it hard to imagine the bull 1200+ targets are hit before a massive pullback or even better a true Wave C – who the F knows…

  • steveo77

    Merry Christmas to all the SSC's out there (Stainless Steel Critters)

  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    ruf how you been? broken technicals have definitely served a nice wall of worry for prices to climb in past months. it's been tough to trade since you have to get out so quickly

  • 4everGrateful

    Thank you once again for all your hard work Mole! I will be signing up, not just because it's free……..well…..maybe. ;D A Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night!

  • RUFCrazy2

    Broken technicals is right, can't count the number of days breadth has been out of whack with the indicies, as well as the endless gap ups. Been following a reasonably strict long only approach for a while but even that has had its challenges – some of those Sept/Oct late day selloffs were brutal !
    Where you hangin out these days ? Mostly I go it alone, lol…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you, Hamster! I will study observations before Monday morning.

    Were any bars open there on Christmas day? I had difficulty finding one here.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Whoa! Check out the specs on Rammstein. That's a hell of a Christmas surprise for your rats, Mole.

  • raised_by_wolves

    “someone always complains for sure ;-)”

    CastorTroy beat me to it 😉

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    20 years ago it was difficult, barely a place open.

    Since the mid 90's you have most bars and discos open both the 24th and the 25th

  • http://it's%20a%20secret hindyomen

    yea i wish i had your long only discipline. i've mainly been shorting. so involves scalping, getting stopped out a lot, and then coming back to the plus side on those sell offs

    reading mchugh and hanging out here.

  • Nightwind

    Thanks mole. Hopefully 2010 will be prosperous year for the bears. I know plenty of bulls who are totally pissed off because they missed so much of the rally. It was one of those rallys that the “dumb money” looks smart and traders look dumb.

  • molecool

    Well – let's see if it keeps running like that – I'm hesitant to anchor anyone in back tested results after what happened in the 2nd half of 2009. However, the last six weeks were forward tested and so far it's been doing fine. Of course past history is no guarantee for future results 😉

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    true and truer

    talking of uncertain future, did you take a look at my comments?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    who said santa is generous? these guys had to lose 10 thousand dollars for every dollar of bonus they got

    How much did you contribute to your company's bottom line? ah?

  • momac

    Merry Christmas everyone. thanks for the Christmas present Mole. 🙂 This website is great and I want to say thanks to you and to everyone who contributes to it.

  • steveo77

    I remember 1999, everyone was into stocks, it was normal cocktail party conversation, then the crash. I was busy with work, and basically didn't see the benefit of continuing to follow stocks, a combination of disgust and disinterest, which worked well until 2002/2003 bottom at which time it would have be great to have someone call and say….psst, by the way, market is heading back up. But I really didn't pay it any mind until around 2004 seeing the obvious housing bubble. I had one property go up 225% in less than 2 years….absurd, but enjoyable.

    So here's the point: This time the “crash” did not scare 80% of the traders from the market. People in normal walks of life with “real jobs” still bring the subject of trading up to me, unsolicited. Many I can't imagine as being traders. Volume is falling off a bit, but still very strong.

    Until a level of disgust is reached, this market will not “be over”. In fact why it will be different this time (well there are maybe 20 good reasons) is that people have now strongly been taught to buy and hold. This may result in less panic selling. But it can also result in “retail” holding on as the SPX blasts past 600, 400, 300….
    Pretcher's “calls” are usually gamed heavily by HBB, but they come true after 4 to 8 weeks. This time HBB is keeping the heat on….stealing more bear money and transferring more “assets” to unsuspecting retirement pension funds and the like. But if Pretcher's call come through, there may be no place left to hide. It won't matter if you are trading between asset classes, they will all be crushed except maybe Gold.
    Chart of Charts
    Not Much to say — Tops can be a complicated affair.

  • the_first_dude

    I had noticed that volume was quite high on a historical basis throughout 2009. I'm also suspecting that volume may have to drop off quite considerably before the final top is reached, but perhaps other factors are driving overall market volume now (Goldman's supplemental liquidity, for example).

    There does seem to be a tendency for the market to go through “volume cycles” where essentially volume peaks near bottoms and troughs near tops, reflecting how much attention the average person is paying to the market. All eyes were on CNBC in Oct 08 to March 09, and when this tiny bull run is over, everyone will be looking away when the next bear starts.

  • steveo77

    The part that I cannot quantify is the effect of high frequency trading….

  • zstock

    IBB, double top is 84. If that gets there, I'm trying a short. I might try a short before 84.

  • zstock

    These GS suckers get back from Vacation Jan 4th, It's happened before, that's a down 200 day, followed by 5 more just like it.

  • MariAroma

    Zee — others may have other ideas. This from Terry Laundry:

    “Saturday Morning 12NOON Dec 26 Comment for Thursday''s close: Forecast remains bullish. Again the red declining tops (cash build up) labeled “Barrier ?” halted the blue Volume Oscillator advance from a clear breakout, but the green AD Line is now accelerating its strength.

    “This is bullish going into year end. An upside breakout is now only missing a return of market participants after the holidays in order to expand the total volume. At that time I expect we will be able to confirm the small red T which would sustain an advance into the new year.”

  • texpresso

    look at the vol of the last year, and the stats of the money on the sidelines. anecdotally, it mite seem like people are still in the market, but in fact they are not. nearly everyone i know is licking their wounds, and several of them NEVER got back in this year

  • bergs

    Well do we rock on toward $SPX 1200 in the new year or take a long awaited correction?

    The bullish count:

    The bearish count, wedge still in play?

  • jamesmarkii

    f uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

  • steveo77

    Can you provide some links to “money on the sidelines”?
    I did a few posts on mutual fund money flow, which I will maybe update today.

  • ThetaGuy

    Barring extremely unlikely circumstances I anticipate closing Thursday mostly cash. Any held positions will be approximately delta neutral. No matter where this week ends I'd still consider the entire day January 4th (maybe the 5th too) a significant pivot area.

    Pivots are a great place to be sitting in cash.

  • steveo77

    Mari, how has Terry's track record been? How long have you followed him, thanks,..

  • steveo77

    Updated and Improved Charts on Money Flows on Mutual Funds

  • MariAroma

    Just FYI, Terry Laundry qouted earlier sees a top in August, 2010, followed by a 1- to 2-year bear market — the double dip. Calls subject to revision pending market action.

    And amazingly, he called the top in 2007 four years earlier; and was “off” by one month (2 percent timewise).

  • MariAroma

    Terry Laundry's T-Theory system is like no other; and elegantly simple once you look around his websites and understand what he's doing.

    He's an oldie, but goodie, having been at this for 45 years. He used to appear on the predecessor to CNBC at Channel 22 in Los Angeles in the '80s, along with such luminaries as Peter Eliades, Richard Ney, Arch Crawford, Sherm & Marion McClellan, Richard Mogey, etc.

  • steveo77

    Thank you!

  • steveo77

    I consider myself more of an Elliot “Hack” than anything, but then understanding just the basics has a certain beauty to it. Seriously…trying to explain every little sub-minuette move as a total market reaction is about as silly as trying to ascribe each market move to a specific piece of news.

    Certainly some news does move the market. The News is announced, the market immediately moves, that minute. I spent 2 days on the floor of the CBOE in 1988 and it amazed me how the traders hawked every little news blip and tried to place meaning on it. It seemed silly. It still does. Funny, in 1988 one could just walk into the CBOE with a friend who worked there, now I wonder what security precautions they have or will have after 3 down has it's run.

    Please review the chart and watch this Elliot Tutuorial on Ending Diagonals. Let me know what you think.

    Chart is below

  • MariAroma

    New from Terry Laundry today:
    “Update for Sunday December 27 2009. Todays discussion is a general end of year summary of the current bull market, where it is going, and the big problems likely when it ends in August 2010 .”

    Two .pdf charts and two MP3 files to download:

  • Sleepynaptime

    Not that the powers that be need more reasons to keep the markets from falling, but I doubted that we would get a meaningful correction until after health care reform was signed (which seems likely). This article states that the next big push for the administration is a jobs bill.

    My question for everyone: Do falling stock markets help or hurt the passage of a jobs stimulus?

    And my follow up question (with tin foil hat firmly in place): If “They” can plan a correction, when do you think they would plan it for?

    Seems to me that the President would prefer bad news be delayed until after the state of the union. The article states this speech will probably occur January 26th or February 2nd. I seem to remember postings about a turn date near the 25th. (Was it a Gann date?)

  • PortfolioTilt

    NASDAQ is leading the way higher again, this is bullish and helps to confirm the recent price breakout. In addition, NASDAQ vs. S&P 500 performance on a relative basis is breaking to new highs

  • ThetaGuy

    Not sure about job stimulus but definitely share your belief health care reform was keeping the market propped. But… China has been watching, has voiced concern over this dirty-pork riddled “issue” and once passed may through up their hands in disgust, and… Well, imo lets just say we're about 1 more bad auction away from a r-e-a-l-l-y bad day in equities…

  • vision_invisible

    Sad but true: I told myself that PPT would try to avert any stock market downturn until healthcare was passed. That was in June, I didn't trade on that though.

  • Gerbil_gold

    sweet sweet bear news.

    allow me my delusions, if just for a week.

  • steveo77

    Keep your delusions going, however, consider that PIMCO (love that name) may be trying to scare investors into bonds which are already overpriced. Then they can offload their bonds onto the unsuspecting who are running away from stocks.

  • steveo77

    ES nightrade, short on Fib 50 resistance, double top—and the brits are about to show up!

  • tradejane

    Very nice. 🙂

    No worries, Brits are still safely tucked in bed. Only us heathens here.

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    hi rats, if anyone saw my Xmas comment then you know… no party till 1108 is broken significantly

  • tradejane

    DAX is safely cruising at 6000 feet this morning, after testing today's 2nd resistance of 6013. 3rd resistance seen 6066. And just in case we need it: Pivot is 5960 and 1st support is 5932.

    I've no position here. I said I would respect the breakout and I did:

    A retest of the breakout area would not be surprising. The only question is will it do it before or after 6200.

    I still have my bank short, since European banks continue to be range bound even as the US-banks are grasping for infinity and beyond. (Citi, for example, is up more than 2% in Frankfurt this morning – not bad for a company that has 4.22 shares for every human being on the planet.)

    Top sectors at the moment are Basic Resources, Utilities Oil/Gas and Insurance.

  • gsavli

    Citi – arbitrage oportunity? In premarket in US it's trading 2 cents higher (0.60%) and EUR.USD is also up (it's 2% up in EUROs, right?)

  • tradejane

    Yes, that's in Euros. 2.35 of them last time I looked. That equals to about $3.38 @1.44. TOS is showing C trading at that level right now.

  • gsavli

    so, no free lunch today on the account of C 🙂

  • tradejane

    It was a good idea, yes. 🙂 Btw, gold price is good for that. I wish I were smart enough to pull it off.

  • ultra

    Seasonal morning greetings! Hope you are having a great holidays and that Santa brought everything your tiny rodent heart desired.

    SPX weekly – last week was the breakout, not seriously expecting resolution until 2010, but any break of 1134-6 is ominous short-term –

    // btw – it's bank holiday here, so don't expect too much limey action

  • derekste

    good morning all…

    haven't checked in here since the morning of the 24th… and I come back to find mole has put on his Santa hat just before hopping in the sleigh and giving gifts to children everywhere!

    Some nice upward skynet action the past 3 trading days… I wouldn't be surprised if it continued through this week. Aren't we due for a pullback? (hasn't this been the question we've all been asking ourselves since July?)

  • gmak

    Merry Christmas Mole! Happy New Year to all! Let's rest up for the next bear beating. Here is a new post – it's short and basic, but it's something.



  • Gerbil_gold

    Son-Of-Hamster, – yer right!
    now I have to go and put PIMP-CO in the evil camp with Goldman Sucks.

  • steveo77

    PIMP-Co exactly….they werent evil until they realized they might lose money on their bonds last year, unless they went into league with the devil.

  • steveo77

    Stopped out….at least no losses.

  • Gold_Gerb

    Son-Of-Hamster, – yer right!
    now I have to go and put PIMP-CO in the evil camp with Goldman Sucks.

  • steveo77

    PIMP-Co exactly….they werent evil until they realized they might lose money on their bonds last year, unless they went into league with the devil.

  • steveo77

    Stopped out….at least no losses.