Zero Indicator
Now Reading
Mole Hunting
21

Mole Hunting

by The MoleMay 1, 2017

I have some family obligations to attend to today so let me get right to the point. This may be day you’ve been dreaming of, your chance to actually stick it to the Mole once and for all and, assuming you finally drop that disgusting glue sniffing habit, go on to tell your grandchildren all about it. Do I have your attention now? I thought so 

2017-05-01_EURUSD_update

As you may recall I am still long the EUR/USD from late last week and thus far it’s been behaving. Not that I would shed much of a tear should this one suddenly fall off the plate (noobs: expat here earning Dollars living in Spain). But looking at this morning’s formation I couldn’t help but notice that this is actually a very juicy (but low probability) short opportunity. Because if it breaks it would most likely result in a gap fill and you know what that means (i.e. target < 1.08).

So ask yourself this: are you a man or a mole? Long or short? What’ll it be? Now seriously speaking the long side still has the better odds at about 60% – it would be > 70% if it wasn’t for that gaping hole below and the fact that we’ve been pushing sideways since. But there is still an opportunity for the bears to take this one to the woodshed but it has to happen before we push > 1.09455. After that I’m doubling subscription fees (j/k).

2017-05-01_spoos

Now the short position I actually am taking is in the ES but before you get all excited and back up the truck let me assure you that the odds of this one succeeding are most likely below 20%. For a long entry I would need to see a more thorough retest yet. And why is that?

2017-04-28_zero

Take a look at the Zero chart from last week and compare Thursday’s session with Friday’s. IMO participation/momentum suggests that we are either producing more context before a stab higher or are heading lower for a little shake out. Besides, we have two gaps there below us – dangerous territory if price keeps hanging around here.

Side note: If you haven’t signed up for the Zero yet then waste no more time and do it now. But be careful as it’s addictive and you won’t ever want to trade the E-Mini without it.

2017-05-01_NQ_comparison

Another reason why the short side has very low odds of succeeding right now is steamroller advance we’re seeing on the Nasdaq right now. I mean the damn thing doesn’t even afford us the courtesy of a decent retracement. How rude. If you’re long here – good for you!

Campaign Updates

2017-05-01_copper_update

Copper doesn’t seem to be in a particular rush apparently but at least it’s still pointing in the right direction. I’m not yet ready to advance my stop here as tempting as it may be. The Mole has learned from the last time he exited prematurely (ahem).

2017-05-01_soybeans_update

Soybeans has turned into Dr. Seuss’ worth nightmare on the hourly panel. Someone is going to poke out an eye on all those spikey formations. However quite frankly this is something I should have anticipated after such an extended low volatility melt down. The good news is that we’re painting higher highs and higher lows, so this still has a decent chance of resolving. No action here for now.

Alright, I have two super juicy setups waiting in the bullpen for you guys. Please grab your secret decoder ring and join me in the lair:

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently trade without worrying about the news, the clickbait, the daily drama and misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c
PayPal: https://paypal.me/evilspeculator