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Mole’s Market Momentum Musings 5/2019
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Mole’s Market Momentum Musings 5/2019

by The MoleMay 10, 2019

Once again the market gapped down at the open but bearish exultations were short lived as price quickly turned and proceeded to squeeze higher throughout the rest of the session. And unless futures turn on a dime in the next hour or so we are looking at yet another gap lower at the open this morning. Are we having fun yet?

Didn’t think so and it once again confirms what I have been warning everyone about for many years now – bear markets are no fun and only look easy on your long term charts. Once you dig deeper – meaning into intra-day activity – much ugliness reveals itself.

Anyway, when things go nutty I usually take a step back and focus on the medium to long term perspective. Time for a market momentum update:

As usual we start with the easy stuff first. The VIX had actually completed a bonafide buy signal in late April which was instantly invalidated one session later. Clearly that was the first warning shot above the bow of USS Unsinkable.

What we are now looking at is a clean advance OUTSIDE the upper BB and until we see a closer back inside the odds of a reversal higher remain limited. Yesterday’s push into 22.5 followed by a close < 20 looked promising but since the futures are once again heading lower we’re most likely going to see another open outside the upper Bollinger this morning.

The Implied Volatility Term Structure (inverted here to match equities) is back in bearish territory and thus far at least I am not seeing any divergences that would suggest an impending rebound.

What is worse is that the recent long signal happened near the highs – just as it did back in early 2018. We all less than fondly remember what happened over the remainder of that year and I truly hope we’re not looking at a repeat here.

The SKEW:VIX ratio painted a solid sell signal a bit over a week ago and so far equities are responding in kind. These sell signals don’t always produce a full scale correction of course but should be taken seriously in correlation with other bearish clues.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold – please meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • nirav777

    Great post Mole!

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    *Really* looking forward to your additional offerings.

  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES @ 2865

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop down

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop down

  • zzezzezz

    covered @ 2855 for +10 handles
    100% cash

  • HD

    SWEET!

  • ridingwaves

    out rest of TEAM, thanks Msquare again….sweet trade…
    banking coin on CPRX….what a setup….

  • HD

    BTC did it’s thing. 5000 ish coming into 6500. Closing that ‘campaign’

  • zzezzezz

    Long /ES @ 2845.25

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Didn’t think so and it once again confirms what I have been warning everyone about for many years now – bear markets are no fun and only look easy on your long term charts. Once you dig deeper – meaning into intra-day activity – much ugliness reveals itself.”
    Word.

    Market Experience speaking – listen carefully newbs.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    sold @ 2847.75 for a small scalp
    100% cash

  • ridingwaves

    think I’ll wait for 4200-5300 retest…

  • ridingwaves

    UBER, anyone going to take it, still not selling yet…..I’m playing the initial surge with volume…then out..

  • zzezzezz

    I was JUST about to post the same πŸ™‚
    Thinking about long right out of the gate… I don’t see bid/ask posted yet for it.

  • mSquare

    You are welcome – happy to post an idea or two here as I learn from others here too (though I don’t trade like much of poster here).

    I sold my stock yesterday and booked nice profits (missed today’s new high!).

    Still own the downside puts expiring in June and may sell $120s PUTs against it – trade idea is that the $120-ish where it broke out is good support and will not break it.

    However, a bit shy with current market and had two good companies but poor stocks assigned using same strategy of selling puts (INTC & ATVI)

  • ridingwaves

    afternoon release…so I’m waiting on it….

  • mSquare

    A decent opening spike and a nice ‘smooth’ trade after for today will certainly cheer up sentiments and likely avoid much further downside (say below $SPX 2800)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, the 3x shorting lure would be wildly complex.

  • ridingwaves

    should retest the break out if it wants to take off to another level

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yes. *this*
    I was thinking this yesterday.
    It’s like a salesman telling you sweet lies, while taking money out of your pocket.

    “Market’s going up everyday, see? green? it will come back, just wait a while”
    Meanwhile, the slinky is dropping down the stairs.

  • zzezzezz

    I need to see a drop of /ES down to around 2800-2820. At which point I’d pick up some lottery long calls (maybe SPY).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that I can understand. 2825 by elevator. that’s what I told Julie.

    speaking of, she’s overdue – Level 1’s….report!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    is it too early for some morning tunes?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A

  • zzezzezz

    Nice Zero signals so far πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    really? options expiry is next Friday..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HYG is losing.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG%3ATLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89654959582

    edit: whether December happens again?….above my pay grade.

  • zzezzezz

    Moment of gratitude: I am 100% cash

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Out of long this a.m on loss of SPY VWAP for a small loss SLV holding 13.84 and VWAP. Watching SPX now at 89 ema approx 2817 which is a redrawn lower trend line FUtes last night a roller coaster Back on sidelines
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Congrats! Looks like you’ve had a lot of great execution. Well done.

  • zzezzezz

    Thanks! Trying to stay nimble and non-emotional.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    LOL

  • zzezzezz

    Now I’m thinking long between 2810-2820, and set a stop at 2800.
    But of course 2800 is the perfect opportunity for monkey business, so I don’t know…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    so much can change in 4 days.

    Mole’s Death zone post,
    https://evilspeculator.com/the-death-zone/

    as crazy as the Market was – was spot on.

    I’m framing this. ..for posterity.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5466e9c199a450372bfd41d043f75a93b663b9ed5c46cd73f588d97507f95b16.png

  • HD

    The entire April rally gone, March opened 2803.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ZZ IMO a reversal on 60 min chart at a lower trend line is what I am watching for next intersection approx 2817 matching daily 89 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Liked your comment on southern border on previous thread
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    LOL….the USS Unsinkable…like that.

  • HD

    TBH I have some major issue with saying the VIX led this hit or gave any clues. We talked about the VIX several times in April and SPX kept rallying. Now VIX is still POS today. Not doing a HH for the masses. Careful.

  • zzezzezz

    Yeah, I’ve heard you/GG talk about “the 89” πŸ™‚
    I haven’t tried it yet.

  • HD

    lol

  • Mark Shinnick

    bot labu tight

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    .236 FIB @ 2810…. anyone think it’s significant?
    EDIT:
    daily chart below:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c2e0f01aceba815271d817103c35e18fc61d33ca0b4cb4e18c72697384558c7.jpg

  • bankwalker

    anyone that had a stop just under 2830 is no longer long … some kind, generous soul has traded places with them …

  • Mark Shinnick

    You only get to know afterwards…

  • BobbyLow

    Here’s a coulda, woulda, shoulda. Yesterday I wrote about how I was over trading and revamped my main Futures game back to 3 Hour Charts. If I had this game plan together on Monday, I would still be short from 2915 and up about 80 Points. I don’t want to chase it short here and right now it looks like my 3 Hour system will never get another long signal although I know it will.

    I’m also working on a scalp addition on an hourly that will have no more than 2 Scalps per day win or lose. Wailting for a long signal there too.

    I outsmarted myself yesterday by taking 1/2 of my Short 3X BIO off the table yesterday but the live 1/2 is doing well. I’m also long Oil so we’ll see what happens.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all those iron condors, and strangles, and sh!t?
    don’t sweat it. that’s their deal now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m thinking of 3 part composite trade position.
    1/3 based on a rules no bending rules indicator, late to the party, late to exit.
    1/3 based on a fast rule, ocassionally whipsawed out.
    1/3 based on my discretionary usually wrong ‘thinking’. LOL.

  • HD

    JMHO, that is actually not a fibonacci number

  • BobbyLow

    Iron Condors, Strangles, Straddles = Severe case of Mental Masturbation and Capital Evaporation. IMNSHO πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    they really closed the 234 gap today, yesterday the left .50 points open….poof gone but there is a gap at 2818 that would be sweet to get off the plate…VIX is lagging this move..

  • HD

    29(55) -(134) = 28(21) FIBsequence

  • BobbyLow

    You probably only need 2/3 to work with 1/3 slack to make money?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    MM. haven’t heard that in a while!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s *sounds* good.
    I’m thinking the trailing stop, is where it’s at. Like you did that one time.

  • HD
  • Mark Shinnick

    Its the very stuff of VR and the 5% psychotics.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Aaarg.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    slept in again?

  • zzezzezz

    yes 2818 would be nice. and yes, VIX very interesting. watch The Zero though….

  • BobbyLow

    I still set trailing stops on most things after I’m in profit. Trailing stops also come in handy when I want to close a position but there is nothing screaming at me to do so. So the more I want to get out the tighter the trail.

  • zzezzezz

    thank you!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Do not despair SLV holding 13.84 and VWAP showing relative strength
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Watching VIX to hit 21.5. Would be nice if that coincided with /ES dropping to around 2810-2815-ish
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c13b5e9e9e14a59066075bb8f6cc19355585fa7c11dd3957f9229c2e90abf6b.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    Lamenting my beloved TVIX dancing with someone else….

  • Mark Shinnick

    double-slit VR tranny

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LoL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Chief for the post this a.m. Julie’s Market Musings … The market can melt down as well as melt up !
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz
  • HD

    BTC is up 63% YTD. +20% since 5000 Don’t call me a perma bear.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi ZZ SPX cash 2836.95 resistance I am watching on present bounce near a lower redrawn trend line
    JULIE

  • HD

    Yesterdays rally kicked off right about now 12:00

  • ridingwaves

    missed the opening, down $4, picked up order at 42

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gold and gold stocks holding up to all this… I would have liked to see them advance in the face of this.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    me too. maybe it’s a tell.
    rush to safety has become a Bitcoin thang.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    always the optimist.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JOijG_E-5Ds

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m watching goro

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    dang. it’s not shortable…

  • zzezzezz

    hmm, i’m not feelin’ it just yet…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    doesn’t it usually take a few weeks?…that’s what I remember from FarceBook.

  • ridingwaves

    BTC is overbought right now, better to buy at much lower prices…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Taking a stab long above 2836.95 resistance and bounce off redrawn lower trend line. Julie don’t usually bottom fish but with present volatility WTH !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    it will close green….at least that was my bet

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    maybe those whiskers are not from a Cougar. but a CATFISH!

    https://files.osgnetworks.tv/14/files/2018/06/Flathead-Catfish-sinfelt.jpg

  • zzezzezz

    short /ES @ 2842.75

  • HD

    1/2 off +10

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY now above VWAP Go Baby Go !
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    shorting more > VWAP (2848.50)

  • ridingwaves

    heading for higher ground, of course it is…..love it….
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/under_the_knife/#comment-4439009327

  • zzezzezz

    I am rooting for you, but…. I’m short! πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    flat at VWAP

  • zzezzezz

    well done! i’m basically short /ES @ VWAP

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Going to watch SPX at an upper down trend line approx 2865 Keep on pumpin… !
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    I see it closing around 2870 today (but i was hoping to see 2810-2815 first…)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ZZ I was watching a lower trend line and daily 89 ema approx 2817 anything within 5 points or so of the 89 ema should be on radar SPX today may recaoture 55 ema approx 2852
    JULIE

  • HD

    The rallies have been about 30. Just a few more

  • HD

    ding

  • HD

    ES HWB

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey gang!

  • ridingwaves

    my portfolio is running plus 100+% this yr……my current demeanor is like when Bugs is laughing in the sand after feeling his toes….my uber bullishness-no pun intended-since december sell off paid well….not saying it will last but sitting in a lot of cash too…luck feels good, I know the opposite, there is a lot of value in certain beat up stocks, finding the cycle turning in favor of them is a trade in its own….

    thru all that, a trip to costa rica is currently causing mischievous thoughts….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief Already recovered loss on bounce this a.m SPX SLV holding 13.84 and VWAP
    Thanks for the post Chief and Have A Great Weekend Chief
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Salute!

  • zzezzezz

    Loving the Zero, as usual!

  • BobbyLow

    Hey, hey. πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • ridingwaves

    I took this trade yesterday, pressed harder on hit this morning….it gets thru here the long green arrow is where target could hit…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7aee9bb0b11947b307df48ab020814327c59dacce621c37343c0f9eb7feae11c.png

  • BobbyLow

    Like I’ve said many times before. You’re able to play your sector like a fine violin. Congrats RW.

  • BKXtoZERO

    FULL Beartard! (Just kidding Sir)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Watching ARRY at a support zone Nice trading ! I have been doing well also
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Julie, you selling at 2865?

  • zzezzezz

    What pairs well with my Davidoff 702 cigar right now? The Zero of course! πŸ˜‰
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f80d878283f602eada72a3cbf3be189130f2ac8197d4d027a1b6df010e3762e.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Nice rebound Now above upper daily cloud boundary and 55 ema Good job fellow bottom fishers. Love it ! Taking 3/4 off long from this a.m at upper downtrend line now expecting a pullback Not going to hold larger position over weekend Will retain SLV over weekend Gotta Go and not able to monitor Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now that’s a classy way to trade the Zero! πŸ™‚

  • zzezzezz

    Nice trade! I’m still holding short /ES (averaged short position @ VWAP)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    And of course it had to happen on a Friday afternoon when nobody wants to hold over the weekend. Gap higher on Monday? πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Quote of the week: “Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ZeroP0rn!

    I like it!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    yes sir… pain indeed

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    β€œAssociate with people who are likely to improve you.”
    ― Seneca

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    HYG.
    Bankwalker said it looked like a buy. It’s looking like a buy setup.
    do you feel lucky? HWB? RSI 48 muckery range.

    [the bears have taken profits under the line, the brave bulls have nibbled under the line] IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7396b04a785f9ce4011f122f342532a8f47e068283df71da1c5439cc54c58365.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to Lunch! Tuna on Toast!

  • ridingwaves

    more reason for costa rica…next sector, a long left….

  • Darkthirty

    2875 looks promising…..4 minute pump cycle -4 minute let off

  • Darkthirty

    It’s human nature to be an asshole, but everyone has the capacity to do the right thing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    took half out, see if I can get lower into close..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Covered labu

  • zzezzezz

    nice trade!

  • BobbyLow

    Boom! Didn’t want to jinx my new scalper so I kept my mouth shut. However, it outperformed on my first trade Long at 2852 and ran to a Limit of 2873 for +21 Points. I still have a lot of back testing to do to prove to myself that it wasn’t more luck than anything else. However I am grateful and will allow myself a small warm and fuzzy going into the weekend. πŸ™‚

    Still holding a full position long oil OILU and a 1/2 Position short BIO. I guess closing the other half of short BIO LABD yesterday wasn’t such a bad idea afterall.

  • Darkthirty

    Just went short, anyone have ES VWAP?

  • BobbyLow

    2854

  • Darkthirty

    thanks .. out PPT is playing, but it’s ripe for a drop

  • BKXtoZERO

    Anyone here think that part of China fall out will be that they dump our bonds igniting the gold market? Great minds discuss ideas… Twisted minds discuss TVIX.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    back short, gonna quick scalp this if I don’t get caught in the churn….

  • Mark Shinnick

    I happen to love the bond dumping idea, set off WW finance.

  • zzezzezz

    2854 is pretty much where I’m short at…. πŸ™

  • zzezzezz

    hahahaha

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    make a plan. don’t be a deer in headlights.

  • zzezzezz
  • zzezzezz

    …yes sir… i know… i know….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    even if it doesn’t work out. you executed.
    execute execute.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Denis Leary has a song on that. But I won’t link it here.
    πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    the problem is they are paying off better than every other countries CB open bonds

  • zzezzezz

    agreed.

  • evilasevildoes

    I am thinking we drop to 2815.52 then gold hits head at 1291 then plunges to 1245 (1262 gets sold)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Quick check in SPX 2876 strong resistance intraday charts Do Not Forget MOM on Sunday ! Again Everyone Have A Freat Weekend !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    thinking of oil position via UWT….seasonality in favor….that gap is intriguing at 70 ish
    chart had golden cross-arrow….now trapped in btwn overhead cycle line and bullish sma’s…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d696dc443824f954d7b69c448bf12fb519273d8b75fa0e064dedcb8171e2b85.png

  • evilasevildoes

    Love Freat weekends!

  • evilasevildoes

    long?

  • evilasevildoes

    sesasonally May is weak (but there are tweets about Iran at lows in market lol)

  • ridingwaves

    yes, long, would like to see momo stick in bullish area for a couple candles..

  • evilasevildoes

    i have 12.24 on USO pnf currently but it could change in nano second

  • evilasevildoes
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I told her to slow down.

  • Darkthirty

    Isn’t that illegal?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, it’s looking divergent but I would wait until it drops < the zero mark.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not in Cali

  • Darkthirty

    I’m thinking AH put on a Monday exp lotto ticket straddle

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV USO could be worth a shot long here. Oversold at support and 55 ema with a center line MACD test Going to need volume tho JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c91c82f584d73ba27dd34bd6e96c656f553e9b7b7e5b8faec48fa3e95752538c.png

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, I went Long Oil on Weds via OILU. It’s been a weak long and hasn’t been doing much. I’m currently even on the trade. Unless something dramatically happens between now and the close, I’ll be holding over the weekend. It needs to wake up next week though.

  • ridingwaves

    USO, has no Golden cross, though looking momo bullish…

  • ridingwaves

    its about time you chimed in…:)

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL I like USO here per chart below But needs a bullish close above an upper down trend line (not shown on chart) and daily 5 ema Not till then
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Thor will be pleased!
    πŸ˜‰

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p88089684008

    edit: Yes, the 80 cycle is very well, alive and lurking
    YOu think of me as a VWAP fool?
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Yeah Baby Popping up above 2876 resistance
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    “Once you dig deeper – meaning into intra-day activity – much ugliness reveals itself.”

    Ain’t that the truth? If you looked at a daily chart it would not tell the story of the market ripping the face off both Bulls and Bears today.

    Gots to me nimble . . .

  • Darkthirty

    crapping on the sidewalk isn’t illegal there either……

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Darkthirty

    8 minute pump – 5 minutes off. close should be volatile

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL Today’s daily chart SPX double hammer candles now above yesterday’s high Shows buyers coming in with no major selloffs Checkout Bonds TLT the intraday selloff Crazy market and best keeping a watchful eye and close to the vest
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    It’ll also be interesting to see what happens to equity futures between 4PM and 5PM today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Nice.

    Uber Slinky, fun for the whole family!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNlOfDHyaXg

  • BobbyLow

    Look at that MF run now. LOL

    EDIT: And no I’m not going to hold any equity futures over the weekend. We now have more weekend risk than necessary. It’ll all probably not matter in the long run but does anyone remember all the volatility around Greece and the Euro? Brexit? Etc., Etc., Etc.,. . .

    Same shit different day.

  • Darkthirty

    going to straddle with Monday exp options. Should be a major move sunday night…dunno which way though

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    obligatory snap.

    Double Udder- gap close shenanigans https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8bf1ad16fd63e55d01b04c3767b5bcce79b83b3dbc7fcf5fed1af8c5897d333b.png . It’s a conspiracy!
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    my uber ending green idea is debunked….near where I bought now…

  • zzezzezz

    i tried to short that MF’r but unable to get shares.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Banks $BKX @ 89 ema a bounce off support and clears an upper down trend line Next hurdle the confluence of 5 and 21 ema’s @ 100 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/838af4a79ddb61bd395ac325c6d65d7dd3e6a948261a387315ada1aa3b79c105.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    89 89 89 89 89 EIGHTY-Ninnnnnne!

  • ridingwaves

    they didn’t try to LYFT it out at insane price for IPO….the one thing going for it.

  • BobbyLow

    I just saw that the market cap on UBER is higher than some major automobile manufacturers. Who knows you might own the next Google.

    Whenever I see UBER it makes me think of Carl Gallagher driving for Uber on the show Shameless. It cracks me up. πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG It’s a Niner … EIGHTY NINER ! HOLY GRAIL ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    my wife uses daily, I use on most travel out of town…they did 11.4 billion last qtr…the issue is prices of rides will need to rise for profit to take foot..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    49ers .. NO .. 89ERS ! GO 89 !! LOL! Love it !
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    BRKB movin on up

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief … Put an 89 on the Zero ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the Eiffel Tower opened in March 1889.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (face palm)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG This a.m I counted 89 crows in a tree ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Silly, blondes can’t count that high. LOL.

    When the vibrational energies of 8 and 9 combine, it means that you have a lot to offer this world. Your achievement, abundance, and success in this life are truly inspired.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY volume a little less than yesterday but I will take it SPX pulling back slightly at the 60 min 55 ema corresponding closely with 2900 resistance zone
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You too GG !
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    On the 1min chart. A = 2834.75, B = 2873.75, C = 2863.5, X = 2873.25, P = 2883, P2 = 2892.75, D = 2902.5

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EV No 89 ! LOL! EV have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Awesome week!

  • Darkthirty

    69s are more fun, but a 68 will do………..

  • zzezzezz

    definitely. i ended with a scrape and bruise, but positive overall!

  • BobbyLow

    I was watching you hit on trade after trade all week and you did great. But after price began and continued to run away on your short today, I was wondering why you didn’t stop out earlier? Just curious.

  • Darkthirty

    Not to answer for ZZ, but when the programs are shut off, TA works, Fibs work, channels work, pretty close to an organic market. When PPT/Bots/algos kick in it’s a crapshoot. There are multiple solid reversal signs that worked all week, but were just ignored today. Weneed Mole to come up with a bullshit indicator or BTFD indicator when the market is being manipulated. I count time between ramps and let-offs on minute charts, when there is a pattern, I sit out

  • BobbyLow

    I understand what you’re saying and it makes a lot of sense.

    I’m probably a different kind of trader than some because I rely on whatever kind momentum is happening within whatever time frame I’m trading. This momentum can be positve or negative and it doesn’t matter what caused it. I try to join after momentum begins and usually get out a little after it ends. I don’t look for divergences, support or resistance. I used to do that but find it a lot easier to just try to KISS and go with the flow.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I may finally try this myself BL

  • Darkthirty

    Not sure how well that’d work on minute charts….

  • BobbyLow

    The fastest charts I’ve traded have been 5 Minute charts while taking an occasional peek at a 1 Minute chart and I’ve done that with /ES but found it way too fast for me. Trading that fast a chart is nerve wracking and too much work for me The fastest chart I’ll scalp now is 30 minute. However my new future scalper is based on hourly charts. I also run a base chart of 3 Hours so it’s possible for me to run two different targets and two different stops at the same time.

    You mentioned one minute charts and I can’t see how a person could get 20 Points down trading on such a fast time frame. The one minute candles would be massive looking and where the hell is the stop loss? IMO, there should be a stop based on the volatility of the price action just before it. Also I learned the very, very, very hard way to never add to a losing position. If the current trade is dead so be it. Move on to the next one.

  • Darkthirty

    Try a line chart. Scalping options with Monday Wednesday and Friday expirations is work, but the $ is better. Plus, there are no stops, you’re loss is limited to your investment. I use a set of 7 indicators on ES and during regular trading hours 5 indicators on 1-5-10-30 minute dow charts. Need to catch at least 5 point moves, but if you add all the moves up and down in a day, that’s a lot of points

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I think you’ve been doing this for quite awhile and I’m glad you can make it work. I think we get set in our ways of doing things and it’s probably best for us to stick with what works.

    In the meantime, it’s been a great week and I think I learned a lot. Have a great weekend DT. πŸ™‚

  • Darkthirty

    Agreed! ALWAYS do what works for you! Try a streaming line chart, after a bit you’ll pick up the nuances and it flows…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LCI short squeeze getting ready. Candle tweezer bottom print at support Monday 30 min chart going above todays high 7.06 Julie gonna nail it for a get rich quickie ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1de8d55fb608769aa7e54b96e773061d43f4bbbff0260579bc9ab81b35f36a5.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Daily Chart Bounce off support level and 89 ema Reclaims broken lower parallel channel and daily 55 ema Guys I am looking for a lower high to short on this bounce. I almost bottom ticked the bounce today and have a remaining 1/4 long position over weekend Also have a small long SLV retaining over weekend also.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5346b4ee9f8cc8c8c828bd032fb9ec7e0d866dfb9e91da3df7c897e1fa1e0551.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys .. Targets for lower high (1) could be Friday’s high at 50% retracement and 5 ema (2) 61.8% retracement near 21 ema (3) red X marks the spot i.e. approx 76% retracement coinciding with a down trend line If Friday’s high was the high then Monday out of remaining 1/4 long going below VWAP Remember X marks the spot LOL! JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPY 60 min chart Checkout the coiling STOCHS Big move coming either upski or downski
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa11d32e7c55d7314e2051534199be7b5e91f55d7c0065de832d17e9edb4e283.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup GG .. Our Holy Grail EIGHTY NINE strikes again INTC weekly 89 ema Yup ! Down to weekly 89 ema ; a lower trend line ; congestion zone volume by price and 50% retracement Weekly and daily charts perhaps selling climax and exhaustion.Hammer candle today daily chart at these support levels Monday another bullish candle could be a long up to approx 50 which is strong resistance closely matching an upper gap window and daily 233 ema Weekly PMO has turned down below it’s signal line What is really unreal GG the weekly chart shows a double top If that fully executes the target is 25 Could’nt happen to a finer company ! daily and weekly charts shown https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/053cba435d7200dbfb7f2a1324b967c79f0b7deef18edd561c7a914df5b11266.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7173f863f4346c6b43644f0945896f3aa1565dd5ab9aef12e8b82ac9a2a7105c.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG On Mother’s Day going out to dinner YUP between 8 and 9 and the bill will come to Yup 89 dollars GG You and your family Have A Nice Mother’s Day !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    $25 eh? Those would be some dark days. Muwahahaha
    Renee James would be the smart girl for getting out.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd106d527a098cad20a917d0ada6f42e853528fd542eaaf343d0c15a67f76f68.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t believe in squeezes in crowded price zones.

    I see squeezes after a long fast fan spread downward patterns.
    once a upper fan line is crossed, only then does a break higher occur.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    However,
    I think $30 would be a safer extreme estimation.

    Let’s take this one bite at a time.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e7902bf4f6956e55ef527df1cd46a4294eab0c6698cd06d57f7f95bfb0d4a75b.png

    *Full disclosure. I currently have no INTC positions.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OH GG …. HYG:IEF Breaks below 55 ema and support …. Could get ugly GG Already broke below a minor lower trend line Negative divergence with tops JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/49a8c90e954fa7f98a96cf685450e1bda1a79d2dabc1a34a9c0cb1815c47f743.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG and Guys EV showed a similar chart last week Thanks EV
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Yeah, I did have a good week overall. Would’ve been MUCH better if I had better discipline when I make a wrong/bad call. I know what I’m SUPPOSED to do, but actually executing on it is the part I need to improve on.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $SPXHLP Down trending with lower highs and lower lows below it’s 10 ema is a negative NOW going below 0 is “Bad News Bears” JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $NYSI lower highs and lower lows now below it’s 10 sma. Going below 400 is associated with corrections. Guys going below 400 is our confirmation that a correction is indeed in progress JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b69947589f6b21e756e3af4fb537085c6c727f16790a0ab201c8606987caf06.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51287e3034a910e2eab91aad733d774e3389afdebccb0049c2ff21ea689b0306.png

    Funny how a little tail whisker print (oval), pointed to years in the future.
    Even if you didn’t believe in such nonsense, something wasn’t right in 2017.
    The RSI bottomed in July, isn’t a lot of ketchup sold in the US around that time?

    The averages started rolling over, and buying the dip, would have been suicidal!

    -GG

  • BobbyLow

    I said the same thing for too many years to mention. BTW another sign I have on my desk besides “Let the FKG Candle Complete”, is DISCIPLINE. I’ve struggled with a lack of it for my entire career. What I do now is to know is once my maximum loss is hit I’m out. I also know that once I go against this rule that the one time it works whatever discipline I’ve worked so hard to get is gone. There can’t be any exceptions. The other thing that get’s me out of a trade before my maximum loss is if after entry the factors that got me into a trade have changed. If the factors change so does the trade.

    I won’t pretend to have all the answers because I most certainly do not. However, I am able to recognize mistakes because I’ve probably made 80% of all possible mistakes at one time or another. (This means that there are 20% of mistakes will find me at one time or another). πŸ™‚

    Like I’ve said before, I was watching your trades as they happened and was very impressed with your execution of entries and exits. However, one thing I noticed was a possible error of adding to losing trades. If you’re day trading or trading fast swings then I can’t see any edge adding to a losing trade other than lowering your base cost. If the trade is bad – it’s bad – and adding to a bad trade? Think about it. BTW, whenever I did this all it usually did was add to my angst and in most cases the trade became a loss anyway. I always think of the old saying “Small losses usually become large losses”. These sayings hang around for generation after generation because they are true. This is not to be confused with building a position as in investing but that’s not what most of us do here.

    Anyhow, I hope I didn’t overstep my bounds and I appreciate your honesty reporting your bad trades along with your good ones. I wish everyone did this because we all have losses and anyone who is saying they only win is a liar. I also think we can learn just as much if not more from losses than winners.

  • Darkthirty

    Ka-ching…

  • zzezzezz

    Still short… What to do… What to do….?

  • Darkthirty

    Check the zero?

  • zzezzezz

    Zero functions best during moderate to high volume during regular trading hours (as best as I understand)

  • BobbyLow

    You might want to keep an eye on VWAP.

  • Darkthirty

    Where is VWAP now?

  • zzezzezz

    /ES 2864-ish

  • Darkthirty

    How’d that happen? Was it depressed on friday close? Bounce to 2872.5 mebbe

  • zzezzezz

    And I’ve got the 50 SMA @ 2866.50
    Seems like resistance, at least for the last 30 minutes

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The 50% retracement and pullback from it’s 5 ema on Friday may have been the bounce. I took 3/4 off long and will bailout of remainder on open below VWAP Guys I have been looking for a lower high to short for a longer term trade as IMO correction time and this could be it. Plenty of time for Futes to rebound as we have seen this action before
    JULIE

  • evilasevildoes

    thoughts on gold?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi EV I like the PM.s
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..as jewelry. {snort}

  • zzezzezz

    Setting stops. Will move them down if/when we hit 2850.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG SPX 60 min chart below .. The coiling STOCHS i.e. expect a big move
    JULIE

  • HD

    and…any minute now the crypto conversation will pick up…Where the hell was everyone at 5000?

  • evilasevildoes

    gold lower?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    are you from Utah?
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwCO-grvzRY

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not sure. but I can give you this one for silver.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11547580534
    πŸ˜‰

  • Mark Shinnick

    No legitimate system signalling yet, but gold often does that as a guessing game. I split the difference by beginning to very modestly scale-in – a small lotto ticket.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ideally, some sort of downside to blow-out stops.

  • evilasevildoes

    i am in the green 14.65 target 1

    thank you GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    well, I was 100% wrong on this move….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Watch and smile πŸ™‚