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Mole’s Mid 2019 Monster Market Momentum Update
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Mole’s Mid 2019 Monster Market Momentum Update

by The MoleJune 4, 2019

It has now become clear that we are not just traversing a minor market correction we should expect to blow over quickly and painlessly. With Mexico now added to a growing list of nations facing import tariffs into the United States, a growing sense of economic uncertainty and portfolio risk is beginning to take hold among investors. After a morning stroll through my collection of market momentum (mamo) charts I am unfortunately unable to find much reason for optimism, at least over a short to medium term perspective.

 

As you may recall the VIX triggered a bonafide buy signal (in respect to equities) two weeks ago. What happened next was slight advance on the S&P cash which however was unable to overcome the crucial SPX 2850 mark.

The Implied Volatility Term Structure (a.k.a. the VIX:VXV spread) has been on the rise but appears far from an exhaustion spike. Which unfortunately is pretty bad news for the bulls as a slow increase in IV usually is a lot more damaging to their medium term prospects than a quick spike that leads to dip buyers to draw a line in the sand.

Here’s another perspective which attempts to catch a few more of the wiggles. My main rule here is that the IVTS must rise > 0.9 in order to open the gates of Hades for equity traders. Any considerable period spent below that threshold is usually considered easy time.

Quite a bit more waiting below the fold:

The SKEW index on its own unfortunately is pretty useless (sorry CBOE) but in correlation with the VIX it does offer us a bit of insight when it comes to risk perception. Any push > the upper BB eventually leads to a significant correction although they can come delayed, as they have over the past years.

The bounces are harder to call as I usually ignore any drops below a falling lower Bollinger. Now as you can see the BB is still rising on both the top and bottom, so my hope is that we’re getting a pop higher in the coming week or so.

The breach below the 1.0 mark on SPX market breadth was an early warning flag that we were looking at a medium term correction. Since then it has continued to drop but we are still far from a possible signal bottom here. It usually gets a lot worse before it finally gets any better again.

CPCE vs. the VIX: Similar situation – there was a long signal in early May but it was only good for a quick spike higher into SPX 2850. The Bollinger is now starting to drop lower and that will prove problematic for interpreting future long signals here.

The take away message is that once a sell off is starting to pick up steam, volatility and risk perception begin to feed off of each other. The increasing downside drag requires a lot more energy to be overcome, and usually it only happens after a very decisive and deep drop lower which has high odds of representing a floor pattern.

In other words – buying usually begets more buying and selling usually begets more selling. Here’s the LIBOR vs. the VIX – a bit exotic I must admit, but it does a pretty solid job of calling impending short reversals.

And just like previous measures it did correctly suggest a buying opportunity in early May. Now we are however looking at a falling Bollinger as well, and that’s pretty bad news – just as it was in late 2018.

This is a new one I’ve started to play with – 3-month LIBOR vs the TED spread. Tougher to read as the signal seems to often get embedded > the upper BB. However a drop back inside that lasts more than a few weeks appears to be a good harbinger of corrective forces ahead.

I wouldn’t use it for long signals but in correlation with some of the other mamo measures above I think it’ll be useful.

Not surprisingly investor appetite for junk is dropping rapidly. Here’s JNK vs. the LQD which is leading the SPX lower.

FAGIX vs. the VUSTX is looking equally bearish and I am staring to wonder if we are looking at a possible return of ZIRP again. Trump continues to push for it and, all politics aside, he clearly wouldn’t face a lot of resistance from Wall Street.

Bottom Line:

I think we are looking at a very frosty high volatility summer here. Cash is a position.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • HD

    Technically not an EDT but that only applies to the EW books. What matters is how the market reacts to it. It did retrace in 1/2 time- a big HD rule, look left, symmetry, enough to be a buyer? for me yes. Not saying it’s over, 2730 must hold. This is B until wrong.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3ac6b119086d0332dfb2fb6384d91908ca4401ec2ba484040d988fef41fcea1f.png

  • HD

    Mole, what are the stats for VIX buy signals last few years? a good study IMO

  • Mark Shinnick

    I roger you on this as a means of relieving the past 2 months’ bearishness – plenty of time if a bear had been serious enough.

  • zzezzezz
  • HD

    a good start to a bear market IMO. mentioned the sell in May that triggered 4 years ago…. look familiar?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc97de80cd5dd9f655d76f66065390207e0d99e89a8b65dfc0eede03d1c81021.png

  • Dyellowflash

    The Dyellowflash is caught in a tough situation. My 5m made a short signal, 1m made a long signal. In this case, I got to reduce short positions opened at the high of day and increase my SLs by 50% from the usual 3 SnP points to 5 pts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    FAGIX:VUSTX – while bearish, always be cautious of bounces and or extremes. IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3381229e97ee3e649ed100d8c9e9e2f40097bd69054011aa5ab3424870574de.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    have a 10 or 15m signal. always good to watch the bigger cycle.

  • BobbyLow

    Well that’s more like it. Scalped +9 Points on the long side.

    Probably should have stayed in but I needed a win after having a shitty day yesterday trading candles with long wicks at both ends. I should have known better and just stepped asside at the first sign. But today’s another day. Might look for another entry sometime today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    40 SnP positive
    In response to Cyd last evening..

    “Whatever works darling, whatever works”
    LOL.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8360b8324e88224bf4f3fcf410d26cb51ed8485d62219ddafe48492d2889cb2.png

  • BobbyLow

    Damn. That exit was way too fast and I left double the amount of points on the table so far. This is what happens when emotion enters into a trading decision.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “it’s a controlled drop. I don’t like it. back in Q4. big red candle days.

    IMHO, bulls are not panicking. they’ve sold, and are taking their sweet time on the grind down. deciding when to cover.”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Master BL, I thought you were Zen and beyond any emotion.
    prey tell.

  • BobbyLow

    Yeah. This is why I only make a judgement call on what price is telling me today FOR TODAY. Predicting what’s going to happen two days from now, next week or next month is pure unadulterated bullshit.

  • BobbyLow

    Nope just another human smuck. I’m also putting the final tweaks on my new trading plan which BTW, trading plans are no fucking good if you don’t follow them.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    All out flat. If you were following the longs.

    IPA and donut time.

  • BobbyLow

    I hope you put a lot of money on your prediction. Come on GG we can all speculate verbally what’s going to happen and it can even be fun doing it. But it’s one thing to “predict” and it’s another thing to put money with a prediction and carry it all the way to the end.

  • Dyellowflash

    Entered short. Dow 25240s.

  • Dyellowflash

    Next 30mins have to drop quite a bit or else I will be wrong. Though I figured my positions wont be around for long if I am wrong. Tight stops 30 pts.

  • HD

    A turn around Tuesday to remember but HD is a seller at roundy. Coming in hot.

  • HD

    This is why I prefer the short side. When the IV comes Even the rallies are better. It’s fast, efficient, and technical. Always.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m flat today, but looking for a bit more upside short covering.

  • HD

    The squeeeeeeze meter is currently 79. First time over 70 since 5/16. FWIW

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am up…. TBT is up….and DRV is up. What a great day! Maybe time to look at TVIX again here near ES 2800.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Gaps at 2810 and 2860

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys taking profits SLV leaving 1/4 on EXAS short Yes SPX looks like a bullish morning star candle pattern and monitor going into the upper channel trend line
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice trade on silver Julie

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks BK
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Dyellowflash

    That’s 30mins past after entering my shorts at Dow 25240s. It passes the first test. Drop more than the previous 30mins before I entered. Now need to pass the second test which is to drip another 100+ points in the next hr. Again, I dont my positions will survive for long if I am wrong.

  • BKXtoZERO

    FAGIX (he he he he)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We need a proper criteria. For example – we did get a bounce after the last one but it was reversed rather quickly. IMO a proper signal gets us the VIX to the lower Bollinger, otherwise I would consider it failed. If anyone has a better idea I’m all ears.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys as stated on a previous thread this correction does not have the characteristics of the previous correction beginning end of September last year. Selling momentum and selling volume much lighter and tamer with this correction as compared with September thru December correction
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a lot?
    2% rule, always keep that in mind.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Chai for All!

  • Jason13

    Are we looking at a bearish divergence on the 5min there?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief There is something that I must iterate concerning your ratio charts esp the $VIX bollinger band chart. I will use the NYSE symbol $NYA.You must use that chart in conjunction with $NYA up and down volume If $NYA is going up and $VIX going down BUT $NYA down volume not going down appreciably or $NYA up volume going up appreciably the market will go sideways and vice versa. Always monitor the $VIX with the volume characteristics with the $NYA. You and HD mentioned about the irregularities of following the $VIX yesterday and the $NYA volume characteristics is why
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Daily Hammer, just like Grizz said?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Your new Delta Chi name is…. SHERLOCK

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Now overbought 60 min chart and going up into 60 min 55 ema and 60 min lower cloud boundary Expect a pullback for an entry long if not long already OR a quick short if day trading SPY 60 min chart volume decreasing on this a.m bounce
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Like Cyd said last night ‘Nice boy wolves’ LOL!
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Careful with ‘overbought’ assumptions during a short squeeze.

  • HD

    The largest rally since May has been $90.72. Not in one wave but 3. We are already $65.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Appreciate the pointer but thus far my charts have treated me very well throughout the mess of the past few years. I do plot market breadth as well which is more valuable than NYSE up volume.

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief IMO could be more than a short squeeze i.e. possible bottom and up we go
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    another sweet sweet channel.
    it’s a talent D30. keep it up.
    +1

  • Darkthirty

    I can find no valid correlation to any of the moves today. I am in awe of anyone willing to stick their genitalia in this chipper of a “market” at this point. Just watching today…..so far

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX IMO watch 2796..63
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 23.92. Little 1 hr triangle set to resolve…

  • HD

    This rally smells like bad Thai food and burning tires.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Looks like an impulse up Not long SPX yet but will go long a pullback overbought 60 min and had 2796.63 (posted above) as a level to watch for a pullback intraday
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of TBT at 30 flat and flush w cash BP for scalping but not trying anything rash as I don’t want to have a rash.

  • BobbyLow

    Rate cut and low inflation. Whaaaat????????????????????????

    This “Low inflation” must be why my food bill, clothing, insurances and everything that I need continue to go up in price. Now this is real “Fake News”.

    In the meantime, the Market loves free money.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bullard-says-fed-may-have-to-cut-interest-rates-soon-due-to-trade-wars-low-inflation-2019-06-03?mod=mw_theo_homepage

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BL The only thing that has gone down in Bozeman is pizza not made in Mexico !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    My shaving cream is still the same price. Too bad it went from 10 oz. to 7!!
    !@$@!#$
    https://www.webcommand.net/index.php/2019/04/23/incredible-shrinking-product-barbasol-shaving-cream/

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well we grow less hair as we age so NP

  • HD

    Gonna be some serious fall out from these jokers. Maybe the most dangerous scenario we’ve seen since GW.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Huh! You are old enough to shave ? Wow !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Beautiful allegory !

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I let the cat lick it off.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thank you Spock.

  • BKXtoZERO

    IYR rounding over…. DRV looks promising for a rip but I am in at 6.5 and 6.8

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    overhead ceiling if you ask me. still a depreciating asset.
    I can see why you like it.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p56268250356

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    To me, I like this area to short at least short term. Zero went below O and came back to bump its head on the ceiling

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason SPX cash 2796.63 a level to watch intraday posted below
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX daily – no breakout to upside – yet – so far the dominant feature on the daily is break of uptrend from Dec low, now this rally looks like relieving oversold conditions
    FTSE, Dow and NDX similar – NDX worst performing

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51ca20a5cbfeadbf0db86042d30053edb8a4303ec9ff63ec5706a797bd3dc910.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    You’ll see…. Get on me Burt. I can’t lose.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I see that everyone is bearish and thinking short squeeze only and more downside.with everyone on same side of boat. Too many bears at the feeding trough and Julie gonna take the other trade. As mentioned below not long SPX yet but will go long a pullback as 60 min chart overbought 2796.63 posted is a level for a pullback
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I see it…. Same as always. Whole move another correction. 3020 next. It only happens 98% of the time? Always cautious.

  • Darkthirty

    TMI?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    The Hustler

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Another item the English bookies have FTSE and DAX down BUT not the DOW Julie gonna ride the coat tails and swinging with the Bookies who are right 95% of time JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/db7232faa184f5da8f54dc2eeb9e8ea6d79ac42af584993b5019228a516749d6.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The Market’s been open 5 hours, and you are not long yet? that’s fine.
    maybe frame your trade window? thnx.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fcb1d7521d041dd54a97c7a8158001ac8baff3e88afb09e2d44a77ed3f9b0d18.png

  • Darkthirty

    drop from 2960 158pts drop from 2887.5 157pts that’s pretty damn tight

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG This cougar let’s the trade come to her Patience young man ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    ES VWAP 2776 FWIW

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    That s how I play vix….like a violin. I own the dvd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Denzel Washington may not have saved the plane.
    But looks like FedEx has a chance.
    he he he.
    4.4% better than S&P 1.89%

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p13870023761

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX cash has the possibility to exceed 2796.63 and go up to approx Level 2 @ 2819.56 meeting the upper channel down trend line then a nice pullback to go long Either way Patience on a pullback to go long No need to rush plenty of coin to be made
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A level 1 at 2826.65 I will post additional Level 2’s
    2822.27
    2819.56
    2815.18
    2808.09
    2796.63
    JULIE

  • HD

    Hey J. Hope you caught that wheat ride.

  • HD

    HWB 2810 too. I’m a seller.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Be careful disbelieving Bears … Bullish morning star candle pattern gonna close above it’s 5 ema The decline from 2954 is a corrective 3 waves down Going against the English bookies and Julie could be dangerous to your fiscal well being JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f475543fa273ae33d6fe55b34f8e9789bcff774b3167fe1709346e8131d1283.png

  • Darkthirty

    Been watching short signals ignored all day … If you can’t read it, don’t work it

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Hey!
    you can’t use that FibFan. it’s a GG fan™. Cease & Desist.
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a compendium.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Listen up GG Last night on a post and chart I credited you GG ! Basically the same chart without today’s advance LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A definite compendium LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no one, and I mean no one watches last night.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    They should tune into the nightly talk show as they miss a lot. BK – D30 – DY – ZZ and HD do
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I can see what you are saying
    But you cam also draw a horizontal line here IMO needs to get above that before bears are KAPUT
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2864a278cb78d4c3b2043905f8f510ff088fa94e9c15fe61f2428e4f0a2fca46.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I told you guys it’s a short squeeze day – VWAP was never even touched since the open.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If the guy who invented the thing sez it’s a short squeeze day then please pay attention, guys.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO More than a short squeeze Chief
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    Yes sir. Painful day for me. 100% cash now.

  • HD

    1 tweet away….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You may be right there, Julie. That was quite a reversal today – VWAP was not even touched.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ouch. Really? This is really the basic rule about the Zero: Ignore any reversal signals if VWAP is not even tested. Watch a few more of the old videos.

  • Darkthirty

    gap fill…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Thanks for Everything !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    At this point, I wouldn’t be mind if we returned to our regularly scheduled low volatility bull market because it would be a hell of a lot easier to trade. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m right with you there Bobby.

  • zzezzezz

    So does today change anyone’s opinions of ES/SPX still dropping to 2700’s and possibly 2650’s?
    EDIT: Personally, if we QUICKLY ramp up to 2860, then I’ll take a chunky short position.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well I’m a bit pissed because my mamo update was more pessimistic. No signs of a reversal on those charts, so I’m a bit surprised that we got such a strong squeeze today. Doesn’t mean I won’t adjust back to a long perspective if ES 2800 can be maintained into the weekend. A breach > 2850 puts us back into bullish territory.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See below what I just said to Julie. To be honest this sort of came out of nowhere, but if 2800 can be held into the weekend I think at least this leg of the bear is done. 2850 puts us back into bullish territory.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ZZ IMO correction over BUT we need the IBD follow thru day to confirm
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s ALWAYS about the follow through. However it would not be uncharacteristic to see a flat day tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the Godzilla pic was epic. give credit for that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Given the state of San Francisco I think that would be the most optimistic scenario 😉

  • zzezzezz

    TastyTrade!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    chop zone of Death. +3

    “it’s the Killbox Tony”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief as stated in an earlier reply to you the 60 min chart is overbought and I expect a pullback to get long
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief and Everyone I will post another chart above possibly proving my thesis
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shhhhhhh. quiet.
    we’re not promoting anybody.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The Transamerica Pyramid was the give away.

  • zzezzezz

    “ramp and camp”?

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    purple is hard on the eyes, IMHO
    switch to canary yellow, or lime green.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Weekly Chart Down to it’s 55 weekly ema oversold. Notice Weekly RSI held 40 which is typical in a bull market and now back above 50 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f95f27e3360c1d3e8ed81cf8600574182cdc17cc820f4d37b1161f827bea2775.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s holding, dam it. Did I mention that? back in Oct 2017?

  • Darkthirty

    that’s default, no clue how to play with the colors.

  • Darkthirty

    Godzilla would die from hepatitis after stepping on an infected needle…….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if (Priceline above VWAP by Delta AND (BlueArrow count > 6))
    disable BlueArrow signalling.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys the charts that I posted I believe over the weekend (1) Equity only P/C ratio (2) Total P/C ratio (3) NAIIM (4) $VIX All suggested an impending reversal … Charts do not lie BUT Wall St does
    JULIE

  • HD

    Gap and crap but I am only wrong for 3.75 and then we try next level.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    (5) $NYMOT chart posted too suggested a reversal
    JULIE

  • HD

    That was a really good observation yesterday about the new moon. Amazing how many times they mark turns.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    haha – very good!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I probably left somebody off, apologies ahead of time.
    Good day today.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The Bookies currently have the DOW – FTSE – DAX up tomorrow OIL down subject to change Tonight will post Bookie chart updating https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d39bd30545337b11b8be1e6f84ea2f784775d9304240adf7c5cea7d44b44196.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie gonna become a “BOOKIE” LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Don’t bet against the English “Bookies” They are right 95% of the time They certainly had today’s move pegged and the decline FTSE and DAX They don’t do China as it’s not a democracy The Bookies are great !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LMAO!!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am under the boat

  • Darkthirty

    A few of them might be tasty!

  • RoastBeeph

    Where does this information come from? Very interesting!

  • zzezzezz

    Might nibble at /ES for a short soon…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yes. Keyhauling! for sleeping in.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keelhauling

  • BKXtoZERO

    FAGIX (he he he) I am not buying in to that fund.

  • BobbyLow

    Did you see the 7.5 Point spike in the first minute of trading at exactly at 6 PM? I just happened to flip to my chart at exactly that moment. Kind of back to normal now but that was evil. LOL

    Going to keep my eye out too.

  • Darkthirty

    Usually some action 7:30-8:00…

  • zzezzezz

    Short /ES @ 2809
    EDIT: stop @ 2816

  • Darkthirty

    Getting keelhauled?

  • Darkthirty

    Didn’t hold in December….

  • Cyd

    What A day in the market
    Cyd

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX We must watch approx 2782 – 2787 the declining 21 and 55 ema’s intersecting https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/98760163098560db63b353987329efb1ee8bea923361bca6eb9d763e5396e948.png the upper parallel channel JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Another chart showing the advance off the 55 lower Bollinger Band JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/25afa3544d3c1e2c456974fc82962f6d2e6da3affcb5bb4e956ae0f49c762b1e.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Edit 2827 – 2836
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I know what it is….Thank you. They say indifference is the opposite of love so at least I know that you care ❤

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys remember that 2626.65 is a Level 1 Very important
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    Pickin up pennies in front of a steamroller

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Easy tell on turns…put a slow and fast sto up, when RSI/MACD/SLOW /FAST stochastic cross 20/80 and turn simultaneously. Caveat if the slow sto d doesn’t cross the 20/80 the turn is aborted.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    true. this may NOT be over..

  • zzezzezz

    Looks like we’re headed to 2860’s

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    reasonable. need some more zig zags.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    but have you looked at /CL ?
    it’s not playing along.
    !!!

  • zzezzezz

    Yeah not lookin too good… I’ll try again small at 2830, then larger at 2860

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO are targets still 10.70 to 10.80 and 10.26
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    AND /GC
    is camping. no reversal. why not?
    Hmmmm.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 you can also put a 21 ema on RSI if your platform allows
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    India and dubai are both closed for holiday

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    makes sense. LOL.

    Over 2 million Indian migrants (mostly from the Kerala and other south Indian states) are estimated to be living in the UAE who form over 27 percent of the total population of the UAE.A majority of Indians live in the three largest cities of the UAE — Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah.Feb 28, 2018

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    pass me the Na’an.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    happy end of Ramadan!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Cyd just called and unable to get thru disqus Something about a captcha that is not allowing her to get in. She set up her disqus earlier today
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    yep. part of my problem too. For me, I had a pop-up blocker keeping the captcha image box from appearing.

    But let’s just say it’s a sign, not to join the Wolf Pack.
    (Howl !)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    between the two of you. I have faith you’ll figure it out.

    if NOT. get a REDHEAD. LOL.

  • Darkthirty

    The bot own this, next activity is about midnight, then 4 am

  • Darkthirty

    2626?

  • Darkthirty

    Daily charts put me to sleep, between the timeframe and those bullshit candles…… I get bored easily due to the ADHD …..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG i am going over to Cyd’s home and we will attempt to figure this situation with this captcha What a crapola situation
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ok. be sure to send salacious pillow fight pics, in pajamas.
    he he.

  • Darkthirty

    Kinda interesting, I bet with a few field modifications, that wingsuit would make an awesome bodybag….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mister GG and fellow wolf pack Julie brought her i pad over and we still can’t get in with my new disqus account. We enter all the info and click I am not a robot and then a completely stupid captcha appears Click on all the buses, store fronts, crosswalks and everything else under God’s green earth and ZIPPO WTF ! So she is leaving me with her i pad and I will post under her account which we are able to access until this compendium of shit is figured out
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Not sure what your system uses to signal turns, but I’ve been out since 2:30 yesterday. If I can’t tell why the market is moving up, how do I know when it’s going to go down? I can’t! Got casinos 12 miles from me, I could go play craps with better odds than this clusterfork…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    We are bringing up the e mini and our posted levels are hitting on the 30 minute chart almost to a T
    Cyd and JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The levels posted below are Level 2.s We haven’t figured Level 3.s which are between Level 2’s Those will be spot on for 10 and 5 minute charts
    Cyd and JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie in an earlier post said we would post an update on the bookmakers Cyd and JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b0470f664116cdbb9c74ef4bac7c99c6b42b703c22316844afaa753eb111670.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    D30 Nice tip on the slow and fast stochastics Julie is on her way home now and leaving me with her i pad Thank you
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    Where’s the pics? I stayed up late for the PICS.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    Don’t forget the MACD and RSI. You can eyeball backtest it on any timeframe…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thank you. There is one thing that Julie and I do not like. The weekly RSI did not go above 66.66 to justify a new bull market. It topped at 64.57 with the rally from 12/26/19 It could still be a bear market We will be watching very close
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    Just checked on the weekly only the RSI and Fast stoch have turned, slo sto and MACD haven’t acknowledged it yet. Monthly/Weekly/Daily to me is akin to reading the classics, nice to have background info, but do you actually trade from those charts? You can adjust the parameters on most indicators, tune them to your timeframe and backtest. Once you get it all set up the trick is to search out the anomalies, then STFU and make bank…….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The decline from 9/18 to 12/18 we nailed very well and made a ton long and short. We even nailed the IH&S pattern that did not play out.We had a problem with the rally SPX as we missed most of it because we were looking for at least a 38.2% pullback that did not materialize. In lieu of that we did great trading individual stocks. As Julie pointed out there was a pullback to the 55 ema that we could have bought but failed to act because of the weekly overbought condition and expected a further drop. We did not lose a dime though on SPX
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    in any business it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep! No shame in missing out if you can’t see the trade. Sounds like you have a well thought out system that works for you. I’m always looking for another edge, and the game keeps changing. This market is nothing like it was 10 years ago. I sat out today and still have no trades on, because I have no edge, I will not play.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    We are like you Must have patience and we let a trade come to us. Being in cash if uncertain is no harm no foul
    Cyd

  • Darkthirty

    If it’s not a kill, don’t squeeze the trigger! : D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Testing 1234

  • Jason13

    Sure did. Booked profits. Now looking for a re-entry. Jumped back into Platinum too.