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Momentum Analysis: Bonds And Equities
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Momentum Analysis: Bonds And Equities

by The MoleFebruary 8, 2019

A fascinated topic in which I have been taking a deep interest over the past few years has been the dissection and tracking of market momentum in various market sectors. To that end I am primarily interested in answering the following four questions:

  1. In what market phase is the issue/index currently active? Short/Medium/Long Term?
  2. How is the issue/index performing relative to recent history? Negative/Positive performance?
  3. What is the state of realized volatility (RV) and how does it correlate with implied volatility (IV)?
  4. Given the above which trading style/system is applicable?

So nothing really ground breaking here, at least from a conceptual perspective. But in the real world, where our trading capital is on the line on a daily basis, how do we extract this information and better yet: make the data work in our favor?

After all we are not interested in writing academic dissertations here. Money talks – bullshit walks, right? I’m sure you didn’t come here to look at charts for entertainment, otherwise I strongly advice you to find some kind of hobby. What you (hopefully) seek is actionable information that enables you to be a more productive and effective trader.

Well, at least that has been and will remain to be the fundamental premise of this digital den of dastardly market domination.

Picking Our Poison

The confidence interval of my average trading window is somewhere between 2 to 10 days. Which means I am less interested in what the weekly and monthly charts for pure trading purposes, but I’m obviously need to consider it as part of the overall long term market phase.

Because it would be foolish to engage in range/MR trading in medium term trending markets, and the inverse. Similarly I probably will be less interested in BTFD setups if we are clearly in the midst of a raging bear market.

Alright, Mole – now tell me something I don’t already know!

Alright! Having tried a number of measures in order to peg the three boxes mentioned above, I have over time (and via iterative trial & error) boiled it all down to two relatively simple indicators on a 60-min chart. That covers the lifespan of the majority of my campaigns after all.

  • Bollinger(SQN)
  • Bollinger(Range)

Now these are my personal favorites per my personal lens. Yours may differ significantly but it doesn’t really matter as it’s merely a matter of preference.

The top indicator measures the relative state of the market’s performance (via a slightly modified SQN formula) – and the bottom one uses a smoothed signal of simple candle ranges (highs – lows). Both are seamed by Bollinger bands because both market performance and realized volatility are relative measures.

By relative measures I mean that signal strength or weakness needs to be interpreted in the context of recent historical context. An example would be the VIX dropping from 18 to 10 within one week in comparison to it dropping from 12 to 10 in one week.

Or the S&P falling 50 handles in a bull market vs. a fall of 50 handles during an ongoing bear market. How do you look at these two events in the context of the overall situation? So yes, context always matters, especially when it comes to fashion or making sense of financial charts.

And what applies on a macro level does, to some extent, also apply on the more short term end. Which is where most of our trading happens, unless you are a long term investor.

The ZB futures chart above is a pretty good example. On the macro level we are potentially at the cusp of a break out market (just based on price behavior) and I’m among many who are considering some long exposure.

The main question for me is this: Should I go long or do I wait for another dip lower?

So let’s look at our three check boxes:

  1. The market phase right now is: MT: Early break out phase. ST: Sideways.
  2. Relative performance: MT: Consolidating after first break out attempt. ST: near the highs and now falling according to SQN.
  3. State of RV is sideways after a significant signal reduction.
  4. Applicable trading style: break out system trading which can be migrated into a trend trading system.

What I’m also noticing, and that’s where simple labels/measures often fail, is that small corrections usually seem to happen after SQN highs with RV turning higher. That’s kind of what we should expect but be warned that it’s not always working out that way.

You sometimes see RV jumps during explosive bear market snap backs, and even during bull market phases. But for now my take away is that – yes, I want to be long here but I probably can wait until I see SQN near the lows and RV expected to turn lower.

Are we having fun yet? I didn’t think so but this is important stuff, so I recommend you embrace the pain and internalize this stuff as it’s going to help you a lot in your daily activities.

Shown above is the E-Mini – again on a 60-min panel.

  1. The market phase right now is: MT: Unclear – either early bull market or bearish corrective. ST: Trending higher but now drooping lower.
  2. Relative performance: MT: Consolidating after reaching medium term resistance. ST: Falling according to SQN and attempting to paint a floor.
  3. Once again the state of RV is sideways after a significant signal reduction.
  4. Applicable trading style/system: trend continuation system a.k.a. BTFD systems (only problem is that IV is still a bit elevated)

What stands out otherwise? Right away to me that the Bollinger on the SQN has normalized after a wild expansion during the recent sell off.  Again, makes sense as only fast markets expand SQN like that and fast markets usually (but not always) happen to the downside.

What seems to precede minor corrections are periods in which the SQN signal kind of meanders lower without touching the upper or the lower BB lines. As a matter of fact it started to do this during the recent highs and it just recently managed to touch the lower BB.

It has not managed to conquer the SMA in the center however (recent reversal) and another leg lower may be in the cards.

My take away here is that I don’t want to be short (yet) in what appears to be a pretty bullish market on a medium term basis. I may be wrong but I can live with that as I probably would get a decent enough entry opportunity later down the line.

Remember – calling tops is a losing and foolish endeavor. So is calling bottoms by the way.

I do want to be long but right now seems premature, so I decide to stay away and wait for either a convincing spike low or some other ST pattern that justifies taking a long entry.

Okay, enough with dry theory – for we have setups! Meet me in the lair!

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Bonus Chart:

So Julie posted a BKX:SPX ratio chart yesterday and since I’m a sucker for exotic ratio charts I decided to take a closer look. Usually I start by just plotting the two on top of each other, which is what you’re looking at above.

And here’s my assessment: It indeed nails many highs in equities via bullish divergences but it also seems to miss equally many. Of course when it comes to the BKX you want to give it more weight ahead or during unfolding bear markets:

As you can see market cycles always lead the economic cycle. So assuming that we are near the top in the economic cycle it’s possible that the U.S. is going to follow Europe’s lead:

But frankly color me skeptical on that end. Hate or love Trump but thus far the economy seems to be humming along quite nicely, to the chagrin of his political opponents.

Again, I don’t care much about politics, I care a lot more about where the economy is heading on a medium term basis. At the current time the BKX may indeed be a good sell but as a correlation chart I see conflicting data.

Of course please feel free to prove me wrong: as I said, I’m a sucker for cool ratio charts 😉

Enjoy your weekends.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Typo Boss: Money *talks*, bullshit walks.

  • Sp00nman

    Great post Sir Mole! I have been focusing too much on the ES as of late. What’s your opinion on NG? Lots of support between 2.5 and here. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5bba416021b07d3f965df114c474fd875727a60c8234b3a7bd4d73318967cd89.png

  • Jason13

    +1 Mole

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    >My take away here is that I don’t want to be short (yet) in what appears to be a pretty bullish market on a medium term basis.

    Nothing bullish about this market presently, just a failed bear market rally, about to re-test the December lows. Or much worse probably.

    >I may be wrong but I can live with that as I probably would get a decent enough entry opportunity later down the line.

    You will be shown to be wrong, once again, a bullish lens means you will miss yet another leg down, whilst attempting lottery longs. Good luck though.

    Top traders have been building short positions, and long vol positions, these past 4 to 5 weeks. Requires some nerve and patience and of course a measure of expertise in reading the tape. Let’s see how many 100s of point ES loses today shall we?

  • Jason13

    Bold call and it may happen but currently the “underneath the engine” looks no where near what the drop on Dec 24th looked like.

  • Jason13

    ….and if they’ve been building the past 4 to 5 weeks, I’d assume they have a ways to reach break even, no?

  • BobbyLow

    Took 1/2 Profit (about +.5R) off of recent crude short. Holding other half short for now but not liking relative strength of crude compared to the current weakness of equities.

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    No.

  • Jason13

    But 4-5 weeks ago they’d be having a position at around 2550…that’s a lot of money if they are trading futures. Not seeing the logic here.

  • HD

    SPX 2681 is the HWB target I noted, below will draw larger fibs 🙂

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    Look at the past 3 weeks and where the markets are today. And where they close today. Red P&Ls will vanish very quickly.

    Legging into positions is good trading. With sufficient knowledge of charts and other indicators.

  • bankwalker

    quite the battle right here at yesterday’s SPX lows …

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    It’s a foregone conclusion. Just retail bulls fighting amongst themselves.

    The Dow leading today is a sign big money has left. There were other big and obvious signs all week though.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Another ratio chart I use is XLY:XLP Tom Bowley of stockcharts considers this ratio very important.Chief Other items I follow for heads up on the economy (1) West Coast longshoremen hours worked (2) Railroad waste tonnage hauled (3) Electricity usage (4) Retail employment (5) new car sales (6) Classified ads jobs
    JULIE

  • Ted
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks Julie – I’ll look into those and will report back.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted we must watch price action approx 21 ema matching approx a lower parallel channel
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t make predictions – just follow the tape – no ego involved. And I’m still here over ten years later 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Lemmefixit.

  • maxcherry
  • MonetaryPerspectives

    Every trade is a prediction. Yet to see you short this pig though?

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    Too small a time frame for that wedge to matter. Look at lateral resistance.

  • Ted

    It’s pretty darn close to my lower channel now. A new low would likely violate it especially if it happens late this afternoon.

  • HD

    what was the low?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ha! slept in… didn’t miss anything. I was up rt before MKT open, saw this as a nothing day,,,, back to sleep. Indecision Friday was what I figured.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max This could happen 3 waves down to December 26 for an A the rally from December 26 to 2738 for an ‘a’ of B now down for “b’ of B then up for ‘c’ of B (approx double top) then down for C to complete an ABC flat. Chief it’s entirely possible I know it’s EW but I look at all possibilities Remember the triangle I posted a little over a year ago that came to fruition
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Ted it’s within a few points We must watch. Also it’s Friday which typically are neutral to positive. IMO next week is key
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long DRV (again) 7.58. I have had my eye on this one.for a long term hold

  • ridingwaves

    your only buying gold trade from 3 years ago is really doing great…..how about those QQQ puts your so underwater in?

  • zzezzezz

    🙂
    2681.83 on SPX
    2680.75 on ES

  • evilasevildoes

    Upside Participation from within U.S. Equities Broadens, While the US Dollar Struggles

    Nasdaq Dorsey Wright Market Update
    February 2019

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys IMO we must watch the semis in addition to the Banks.You can see $SOX like $SPX the 21 ema matches a lower channel One item $SOX is below it’s declining 5 ema BKX showing some selling pressure again today. In a reply to Ted below IMO next week is key JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ae76106f500f89b29bd92b656ceed548cb7db16cb3e19dcc7b0aa3b54e3895e.png

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes
  • Ted

    We will likely see a break followed by an up move in an attempt to regain the channel. If so, it would make a great position to short.

  • bankwalker

    long /ES 2689.25 … for now …

  • zzezzezz

    same here @ 2686.50

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The saying “Don’t fight the FED” … Also pay close attention to the Bond Market … Tough to fight this bullish uptrend now conflicting with the equity market. My money is on the Bond Market which again I state ts https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1909ae6fb793e05c73c5c4937b0e907b55410b6a496ec85db0c7d31b5e1aa900.png 7 times larger than the equity market. The Bond Market usually gets it right JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    One possibility is bulls testing the trendline they just broke through… that is 2657 at the moment https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6e5b3844b73c83d264f072f8022b4b3a88a86ff27a0e43aef47149cc00c233c5.jpg

  • maxcherry

    2700 might be a good place to go short again

  • evilasevildoes
  • BKXtoZERO

    The Turtle man is back. The Turtle says long huh?

  • bankwalker

    I’ve been called many, many things in my life … but Turtle man?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPY 60 min chart Observe the 60 min oversold bounce off the lower cloud boundary Now above 60 min VWAP Love my cloud Guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0492a60f962ad4db9ba18a8536e1daada5a6ebe5d9e03150c270a37b1752d34d.png

  • maxcherry

    well i think the 2346 is the low, how it goes up is to be determined, would not be surprised to see 2550 to 2600 before going higher

  • BKXtoZERO

    I had to come up with some cool nick name for a friend…

  • bankwalker

    LOL! Thanks buddy …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK In a reply to Ted yesterday he wanted some levels 2657 was a level Another level is 2639
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Ted A failed back test Yes !
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    It’s a very interesting chart and ratio.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Noted, but the entire notion behind the Fed turning more dovish was to put a floor < equities. I'm not going to over think this obviously and simply trade what the tape offers me.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Rumors about about large cars with sell orders. We’ll see… in my world I need to get more price confirmation – not going to judge it by 1 1/2 down days.

  • Darkthirty

    $SPX 2681.83

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – you mustn’t have come here long. I trade both sides with equal fervor. If you judge my approach by a handful of trades then that’s on you mate.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I won’t show a chart I will let you guys insert the 13 ema $SPX BUT today’s doji hesitation is at the daily 13 ema. Again Friday’s are usually neutral to positive so IMO next week is key IMO a pause today to go lower
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice Post Mole! I liked your method for determining MKT phase. Thanks for including the BKX chart!

  • Darkthirty

    EDT or LDT

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK That cycle presented very important. Another item John Murphy of stockcharts states one of the last sectors to decline is the railroads as they are domestic. The rails do not go to China or Japan Always keep an eye on the Rails symbol stockcharts $DJUSRR
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I have a little time so here is a chart SPX with the daily 13 ema (blue line) You can see the importance of the 13 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7dc367ee70c96f04ee86645900b73f2532b17625b5a52689b57e08e0d2bd7706.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    you made “honorable” mention…… and I was in there too! (BKX)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL! BK You Have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am off today (which is why I had time to read the post in the morning)

  • HD

    Coming in h0t. Almost 17 off the low. IPA and donut time.

    Good weekend all!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Exactly Chief I read the tape also as price action only pays. I have studied volume price action (volume spread analysis) and have memorized a book on tape reading that was written in the 1930’s and still applies today I gave the name of the book about a month ago. One of my husbands first books He insisted that I memorize everything in the book and I did
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You too HD Have a great weekend also
    JULIE

  • Jay Thomas

    The sector rotation model is an idealized depiction of what usually happens. Reality is much messier: the sectors don’t necessarily follow in that order, the amplitudes and frequencies of the curves are much messier to the point that they are occasionally unrecognizable, and recurrence loops happen. It is very useful for putting your head in a frame of mind, but don’t hang your hat on it.
    It says it is a theoretical model and it means it. Specifically, the SRM assumes that the underlying structure of the economy is not changing, or in my words, that the usual market makers are driving the shenanigan bus. However, at this time, the economy itself is being changed. We saw the same thing when the Obama administration chose winners and losers under QE and specific bailouts, when Bush’s actions messed with the energy sector, yada yada yada. Some interference has more effect than others, and we are experiencing some big changes at the international level right now.

  • bankwalker

    Hi Julie.

    What is the name of your book?

    Thanks.

  • Darkthirty

    When I was doing animal control, I got called “coon man”. Now, I hear that be rayciss!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    OK Guys Another chart SPY .. SPY 10 min chart … Overbought 10 min going up into the lower cloud boundary and 10 min 55 ema … A possible pullback may now occur NOW a question Do you think I day trade too ? LOL! JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I dunno guys – ZH is working overtime talking down equities. Usually a bad sign for the short side.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief What is Gartman doing ?
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Tesla fires, Dick Pics, earthquakes…… lots a good info there!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    At least now we have a threshold on the long side and a failure point for bearish setups:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19c18df1fc474516f01becb40041615616473c793f79d8202ae4368ab66b1c7e.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My point is that I have seen the market skirt bad news over and over again. So why should I consider it now?

    Look guys – I’m happy to trade the market down. All I’m saying is to not get married to the short side. Let’s see what happens into the close and in particular Monday morning.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If he’s long we’re trouble.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I agree Sir…. just saying that even for someone like myself who used to find them interesting they are a bit much

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief Your threshold 2706 is exactly the daily 5 ema which I use as a filter as everyone knows. Same page Chief thanks Chief
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Exactly Chief What I have been posting .. Next week very key Have A Great Weekend Chief
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BW Tape Reading and Market Tactics by Humphrey Neill
    A great Book written in 1930 .. Still applies today I think sell now for about 8 bucks. You can order it
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    yup, keep it simple

  • bankwalker

    Well thank you Ma’am …

  • bankwalker
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX in a major congestion zone (resistance) evidenced by Volume By price. Also must contend with the November and December highs approx 2800 SPX stopped at 200 sma Next Week Can’t wait ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b073712f20b198889cfe4059a8aafe801c2b14625bb937400830d02a5af019f3.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes – I did post a similar chart last week. The volume profile here suggested that the big hurdles (spike highs on the daily) would be difficult to overcome. Tough going started at 2730 and it only gets tougher toward 2800. Above that it’s bull gravy – below it the bears have a great shot if they are willing to take it.

  • HD

    So, the 17-10, 10-17 BOTs I’ve been pounding the table on. Here’s a visual. No indicators, fancy charts, https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6532ec41d1bf3b9d1cfd9df62165e7303ee2c3a2752594398e43bdb930ba15c5.png or paid services, just price action and market characteristics. Month 6 with these BOTs.

  • Jason13

    HD, is that a 140 min chart?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Different lenses often yield similar results. Which is good – the more evidence the merrier.

    FWIW – if you start looking at the tape as traversing easy ranges and rough ranges then trading gets a lot simpler and stress free. Price makes it beyond the rough ranges favors ongoing momentum. Reversals weakens the ongoing momentum and repeated failures bolsters the opposing side.

    Well, it works for me at least… what I can’t wrap my mind around is someone pointing at a chart and claiming that the market is invariably going there. Why? Because I’ve seen people blow up their accounts way too many times.

    Survivorship bias is a thing by the way. Meaning the same guys who throw their weight around and end up being wrong usually don’t come around to tell their sorry tale. Of course if they end up being right you never hear the end of it 😉

    Anyway, pizza is in the oven (home made – yessirrreee) and I’m off for the week.

  • bankwalker

    so do we now go down 10?

  • Jason13

    The downsloping 60 min 50MA is around 2706 as well.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Agree Chief What is really an advantage IMO are proper trend lines IMO the market and individual stocks adhere to trend lines. The adage give a second grader a pencil and ruler he van make a million bucks is true . That is why I draw proper trend lines. A book by Vic Sperando on trend lines is amazing
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I tested spike lows in the past week on a 60min – 9 years worth. Long term edge is 1.8:1 and past year’s edge is 1.9:1. Pretty damn good for one simple price based alpha factor.

    Net-Lines did not fare as well actually and I’m thinking of abandoning them in favor of SLs and SHs.

    Anyway, that’s the one thing I still have an issue with when it comes to trendlines. They need to be factored/defined precisely in order to derive proper stats.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason Art Hill of stockcharts says the most important chart is the 60 min
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Is this a daily cycle that resets on the close? Been looking for a bot system!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Can you explain the numbers a bit? Sorry I’m dumb…

    Also, are you familiar with the PREM?

  • HD

    When they run it it’s been 1 time per session for the norm.

  • HD

    5 min

  • bankwalker

    How does he adjust for the first bar of the day being only 30 minutes?

  • BKXtoZERO

    The other day they were on their PGnE bankruptcy ball busting tear. They post this story… More trouble for PGnE with San Franciso gas explosion. I think OMG really? Then a few paragraphs in it says some non related contractors were digging and struck the line. Well no shit…… ZH used to be better.

  • HD

    92-82, 82-99 10-17

    Not familiar w PREM

  • Darkthirty

    If you want a GOOD fight call a true swamp Cajun that! Had to be registered to get calls from PD / sheriff dept. Been hunting and trapping most of my life..

  • bankwalker

    how do you exactly define a spike high or low?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You know about fair value, right? Well, the premium or PREM is the delta between the S&P futures and the S&P cash. If I remember correctly it starts out at about -6.5 after the roll over and then gradually reverts toward zero. So every day of the contract has its own top/bottom range. As such testing needs to consider ‘days to expiration’ as an additional factor so that the model can properly correlate it. There are similar PREMs for the YM, and the NQ.

    The underlying point is that the PREM tracks some of the monkey business that institutionals play via shorting the futures and accumulating on the cash – or the inverse.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief have you inserted Fib Exp Moving averages at SL.s and SH’s Check this out USO and 89 ema (just one example of many) IMO Fib exp moving averages any time frame huge advantage https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5ed685fdf61490257c8fa7550b3994cdd39a73db3a6bc183b4b005072a41660.png JULIE

  • HD

    Ok- makes sense. Plenty goes on behind the scenes. Not always easy to discover but it’s always on the charts IMO.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Realizing how silly it might sound, using drv as an inverse analog for money and confidence in US markets has been filtering of some of my own bear trades.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    DAX 2 hours – short term oversold – broke out of a potential bear flag , rally to re-test? May tie in with a rally in other markets to test recent highs.. – https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f440129d24bd8e0f2a492ffb6549286e30b2845cc6be79fd6053af54e058a72.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I bought today. What does it say to you? IYR screamed straight up and sports a doji

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW either the first or last bar must be 30 min.

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    You’re not your.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Clearly strong, whatever our biases happen to be, the mainstream is buying into it. Must be something about that yield nobody believes will ever go away.

  • BKXtoZERO

    UGAZ sneaking up in double secret probation mode….. Maybe yesterday was the final gap. Evil plan working.

  • Darkthirty

    ES VWAP 2690.42 $INDU 24975.97

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys esp bulls be careful Remember the $ DAXhttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8e0d19f1580e6a3874f009e339384451ee11632e60376e28cca0f47140f40731.png always Chief again the 89 ema comes into play along with SH’s and SL’s JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys It’s Friday and games are being played .. Holding the market up.They always want consumers to spend money over the weekend. That is why Fridays are usually neutral to positive. not to scare .Next week is key. THE $DAX CHART BELOW ! Come Monday !
    JULIE

  • TomW4

    Are you still short @disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus ?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Tom I still have a small short position
    JULIE

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    I’m holding nearly 5,500 vix calls, strike 29, expiry end of Feb and early March.

    Mucho Rs.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Put on small TVIX 37.6 for hold

  • zzezzezz

    sold @ 2700. flat now going into the weekend.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Not exactly a bullish volume pattern on advance from December low A break below 21 ema matching support level could spell trouble DIPSTERS AT THE 13 EMA IMO WILL NOT LAST JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5cbec7e81a3473c665eb97841084ff1d6ce6987aeffddbc9e86e88f811808f81.png

  • maxcherry

    looks like its forming a head and shoulders bottom as does the SPX

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Another canary in the coal mine $XBD (Broker – Dealers) Possible double top… Breaks down thru 21 ema and gap window AND .. MACD ; RSI and FULL STOCHS rolling over JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/135cc507c272db50c48664d6053971d7faca1e35461610383e466c4fec837b17.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max Could be … IMO at least a 38.2% retracement is in the cards
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    out at 2706.00 – flat for the weekend

  • Jason13

    HaHa…too much. Literally closing at 60 min 50MA. Couldn’t have scripted this better.

  • Ted

    Big up day Monday. Just a gut feel. No skin in the game. Bears doing nothing to IWM.

  • Jason13

    Well they need the pundits to talk about the 200 SMA. You know…to drum up business.

  • Darkthirty

    50% retrace or HWB

  • Darkthirty

    appreciate the correction. the whole post was out of context without the apostrophe and e on the end………

  • maxcherry

    i told you that wedge wasn’t a good sign for the bears

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Pick any low that has a higher low to its right and its left. The high of the right candle is your threshold.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “It is very useful for putting your head in a frame of mind, but don’t hang your hat on it.”

    I can definitely agree with that. Quite honestly I’m not much of a macro-economics or fundis guy. Above my pay grade, so feel free to school us.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…and I just have no signal to buy drv and just gotta behold the sign of immense capital flow.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That spike higher was bot driven, looks a bit iffy to me.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/539ab0e27731ad5dd2d67533288d74fd3cde4642267a648c9c514dcc71cf62c4.png

    Let’s see how the open goes on Sunday night. The bears are not out of the race just yet folks.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC A bullish falling wedge at it’s approx 34 ema and upper gap window.Breaking above the upper trend line of the wedge will also break above it’s 5 ema Will be watching BAC closely for clues as it’s the Big Dog of the Banks JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2d64a8fc9582fb548a26d5603cf347a6dd8bf1bbbcd65d01bf8336adba4b01ee.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max just one day of a very minor pattern 60 min MACD still below it’s center line and $SPX below it’s daily 5 ema @ 2712 with SPY volume today complete poop. IMO no corroboration. I concur with the Chief and posted below Next week important. Max Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Last hour of trading was all propped up, Sunday night open will be real interesting………..

  • TomW4

    how can you tell if it’s bot driven or not?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max you can also look at a 60 min chart and see a Bearish head and shoulder pattern too corroborated by the 60 min MACD
    JULIE

  • maxcherry
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Word of the day: corroborate

  • maxcherry

    i went short via 2575 puts on the close

  • TomW4

    @@disqus_qkFlPoMLUZ:disqus , if BAC breaks out of that wedge, then all banks should follow suit and therefore XLF should break out as well right? If the “banks” (like you say) goes up, will this invalidate your bearish position?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @HD – here’s a very simplistic example of the E-Mini’s PREM today:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d2590b6c512348ae95ddbc3a45dd5505b418918bb0e7ee652bbbc41ef75df98.png

    The correlations are not always this simple and institutional program traders also follow the big S&P’s PREM as well as the YM’s PREM. It’s something I researched a few years ago and I’m looking at digging it back up and making a run at it with ML tools.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Tom Yes BAC is a leader of the Banks … SPX bearish below it’s 5 ema and look for a bearish close next week probably Monday below 2687 That will keep the Bears alive.SPX going above 2725 nod to the Bulls.We now have our levels. 2724 is a level I have which matches the upper boundary of the 60 min Ichi Cloud.Now bring up the 60 min chart and you can see the bearish head and shoulder pattern developing in a reply to Max below NOW Tom 60 min SPY chart showing the developing head and shoulder pattern i.e. three white horizontal trend lines with the MACD still below it’s center line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/373dd22a30e6c185e0a0b487c402b16814196706b3e065aad0b30d4946f711ec.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Northman Trader, Senior Norte’ spots potentially bullish 50$ VIX pattern

    https://northmantrader.com/2019/02/08/vix-50-target/

  • Mark Shinnick

    Probably one of the most-heated of the bot wars ….don’t you think your creativity goes way beyond that imagination? At least…I do 🙂

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • MonetaryPerspectives

    BAC is a falling megaphone Julie. About to decline to the bottom.

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    Vix to 126+ by 25th February I think.

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    Where is that fellow, golden hamster was his name, he used to do some real pretty charts. I hope he’s faring well.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Taking some time off. He’s planning to be back in spring.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not sure what you mean. Can you explain?

  • MonetaryPerspectives

    Thanks. If he’s still reading here, I’d like to ask him to get in touch with me via my website.

    Such pretty charts.

  • BKXtoZERO

    If he stays away too much longer I may have to learn to chart things myself!

  • ridingwaves

    bears better take this window of financial weakness seasonality to make something happen…..starting in March that changes dramatically…..

    no collapse here, America is the shining star of the world right now…..all the money will flow here…..its a safety net x 50……..financial engineering takes a lot of time to work out, if Britain is still floating 80 years after losing reserve currency, don’t expect anything to happen while your alive here….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Watching BAC very closely per chart and comment below. BAC negative divergence with OBV as you can see what happened previously. MFI below 50 Possible one more leg up to Red upper down trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/002cf06e8bc83f05dbce891efda33610f8a4615d88078f556043d9e4236ebbde.png

  • ridingwaves

    I wouldn’t stress about one bank….better to just run your charts on the banking indexes…..like biotech or semis, there are bright and dark stains in the fabric of indexes…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hi RW….are you still in Nat Gas? I remember you were looking to buy recently with a stop of 2.50. Seasonality charts differ a little depending on time period sampled but a few have Feb as a low.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Bullish Picture
    (1) weekly RSI (27) above 50
    (2) weekly STOCHS 50,3,3 above 50
    BUT
    (1) weekly 10 ema has not crossed above weekly 50 ema yet
    (2) weekly MACD 5,34,5 has not crossed above it’s center line

    NOW $NYSI has gone above 500 to almost 900 which is bullish
    $NYHGH has gone to 140 and has stayed above 50 which is bullish
    BUT
    (1) $NYA200R has only went to 50% Bear markets must go above 60% to transition to bull
    (2) $BPSPX has gone to approx 62 must go to 70 or above In 2008 both $NYA200R and $BPSPX stalled at present levels and Bear Market resumed
    (3) SPX Weekly RSI must go above 66.66 preferably 70 to transition to Bull
    (4) IMO the SPY volume has bear market characteristic shown on SPY chart presented
    Guys Be Careful Here as the Chief explained below the Bears still have a chance. I still am not convinced that the Bear has ended and a retest of the December low is very possible JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b1896a787f01c1f275fd8d9a7ea5b14125fa41821c98980850f6ac75b772afcd.png

  • ridingwaves

    yes, should begin to pay off soon….

  • HD

    Nice. A little above my pay grade. If you have to look too far under the hood it just doesn’t gel with me. Correlations etc.

  • BKXtoZERO

    like right now. (he he he he) futures up.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bold call there! I thought I was bold…. he he he. Trying to be bold AND old.

  • Darkthirty

    At current trajectory ES will be 3K by the open…………………………

  • HD

    OPEX week before a CME holiday. Should be a good 1.

    10 handle pop at the open.

  • HD

    100% agree! USA. always has been, always will be shining star of the world.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NEW POST