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Monday Drive Through
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Monday Drive Through

by The MoleDecember 3, 2018

I had a pretty crappy night and it feels like my brain is running in energy saver mode this morning, which somewhat thwarts my ongoing efforts to tantalize my restless steelrats with insightful market analysis and actionable charts. So I hope you can forgive me if this post is going to be a bit more spartan than what you usually have come to expect here at Evil Speculator.

Let’s set the stage first via our event schedule for the week. There are a few high volatility events scheduled for today and tomorrow but Wednesday and Thursday will be the big whoppers as both the ECB and the Fed are scheduled to issue public statements about their respective interest rate policies.

Before last week I would have not expected any big surprises given the Fed’s original plan to gradually hike through 2019 but that obviously got completely blown out of the water on the 28th, which caught a ton of salivating bears by surprise.

Plus with Paris pretty much on fire every weekend now there’s no telling what Draghi may have up his sleeve to aid Macron’s efforts to somehow appease his pesky voters. Well, at the danger of coming across a bit cruel but to quote Joseph de Maistre: “Every nation gets the government it deserves.

My long campaign is looking pretty peach at this point and I just advanced my trail to the 2.2R mark. Looking at the daily panel it seems to me that a breach of ES 2825 significantly reduces the bears’ ability to drag the tape lower and back below the ES 2600 inflection point. I’m not saying it’s impossible given what we’ve seen over the past few weeks, but a drop lower now and here would keep the momentum on the bearish side. We shall see…

The greenback reminds me of Bill Dunn as it has been bucking like a wild bronco. My long campaign thus far has survived the gyrations, mostly due to luck and my policy to not shift my trails until after the conclusion of the session. Which by the way is a good policy in high volatility tape if you intend to ride break out moves.

The USD/CAD campaign hasn’t been this lucky and I got take out at the ISL. Looked really good in theory but I guess there simply remains too much intra-day volatility which makes trading this one a bit tricky.

I leave you with a medium to long term perspective of gold. The daily formation looks very juicy and a retest of the 1230 mark (Feb contract) would be a great long entry opportunity. In retrospect I should have probably taken a whack at this one last week when it was warming up to resolving the falling neckline on the inverted H&S. That said I usually find entering on a re-test of the neckline (should I get it) to have much higher odds.

Public Service Announcement: US cash markets will be closed on Wednesday in recognition of the funeral of President George H. W. Bush.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Public Service Announcement: US cash markets closed on Wednesday due to Bush funeral.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Right, forgot to mention that. I’ll tack it on now.

  • Jason13

    Will that mean the Powell speech will be put on hold?

  • Ronebadger

    Meaning….NYSE? Are they are closing down the stock market for a funeral?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Guten Morgen!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh right – well, I guess that’s a good thing. Although holding equity positions across Wednesday may be risky.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll have the meal, no cheese, and a side of Fried Evil rings.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you guys didn’t read the weekend talk?
    day late, and a dollar short!! (face palm)

  • HD

    Quite the EOM rally! Ho Ho Ho. Round numbers getting scalped.

  • randomuser6789

    I bought a SmashPass from SmashBurger. 100 days, $100, 100 entries.
    Maybe we could have an Evil Pass of some sort.

  • HD

    The previous EOM rally was 210 points. The low was quantified >2750 Int B in progress.

    To RW’s call last week. Excellent! The hit at the beginning of the year was just over 11% also. Some symmetry. Above those double tops and a lot more probability that is the case.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of remaining crude long 1/4 position at 15.21 from 12.66

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no.
    promised Boobie pics not delivered.
    not Excellent.
    😉

  • HD

    LOL. I forgot.

  • Yoda

    I could do with one like that for the Bunyranch

  • HD

    Round numbas! scalpers walking away +10

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A moment of silence.
    For the many brethren trench rats who gave their all.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc94643558b07afe206ce1d219abc25a2056b957f359cb7f60644e3ec3ca576c.png

  • HD

    9% move on the VIX, if you know what I’m talking about….

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..Got the family a tree this weekend.

    Son…of…a….
    at least 10 to 20% higher than the year before.

    https://thehustle.co/christmas-tree-prices-increase

    Bah- Hambug.
    edit: and don’t give me the gas price shipping BS. I think NOT.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GASO&p=W&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&id=p2415140678c

  • ridingwaves

    that is 1876 kind of pricing…

  • ridingwaves
  • Sp00nman

    Not sure what to make of today’s price action.. Russell is very weak today. First to fill the gap from Friday. Sure feels like a gap and crap.

  • ridingwaves

    good observation, smacked right into descending daily 50sma and turned around
    the long term auctions and budget signing adds fuel for later this week…Now figuring out what way the fuel is inclined to burn is the tell….

  • HD

    Is 2780 a good long?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, its a good Wall of Worry situation.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Shot its wad pretty quick there…

  • Mark Shinnick

    No man’s land….if not already long days ago, no safety margin ….so just have to see what kind of new money and confidence chooses to re-enter.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX My strategy was gap and crap outlined last night on previous thread.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ditto.
    High Yield isn’t exactly a bull yet either.

    Bears backing off, Bulls not convinced – worried of yet another trap.
    3 falls in two months…can you blame them?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f4166924c5bc19223d6d0d836b12e605d9fadfc11cde5894edfde295f0997cd.png

  • TomW4

    Hi Julie and all,

    I’ve been disconnected from the markets the past week and boy did we make some big moves!!!

    Seems like you, GG and some other guys changed your position from bearish (<2600) to something 2800+ now? What happened?

    Thanks

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A man’s got to know the Bear’s Limit.
    nothing goes to zero mate.

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/talking_junk/#comment-4208691942

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Tom Very simple the rally off the 2631 low is impulsive
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys This rally could be over and down to new lows . It’s a possibility as there are some things with this rally that do not add up
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    based on the recent highs, you have a point. (squares)
    based on the recent lows, another day. (ovals)

    Maybe hence the confusion.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/39c58c40f81e062443ab86acd62b367aae1edb373f0190c48c6c1d059d92640f.png

  • HD

    Maybe those round numbers guys are onto something bigger.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    rally based on hot air (politician speak)..
    you could be right – shorts all blown up and probably lots of late longs ..perfect set up for no support underneath

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also catracho it is a V shaped rally off the 2631 low which is typical of a bear market rally.Gone too far too fast is typical
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    So you got to close your short?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice chart GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You’re too kind.
    it’s highly simplistic. not enough data points.

    still, it’s like catnip to the trader! (myself included)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No Jason Read my post last night previous thread .. Anticipating a gap up then crap
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep and CNBC and guests are raging bulls…2925 for year end.

  • HD
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (GG whispers, twentyeight – eighty-eight.)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Catracho Checkout the Banks ($BKX) and BAC Same gap and crap
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Don’t go back to old threads when new ones are up. You think it’ll crap lower than this?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    *that* is significant. no, seriously.

  • ridingwaves
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason I now have an initial target lower to 2715 – 2717 Will evaluate if attained
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD There is now 5 waves up for a C completing a flat and a possible wave 2 or B
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I’m afraid I can’t join ya on that one…I’m seeing higher still

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys We cannot overlook the possibility of a large triangle developing … I believe MAX last week pointed out the possibility of side wise action for nominal period. A large triangle or large consolidation would really be the monkey wrench to throw everyone off JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/426c6c3b83cc54e86cc7c7158dd82c979a2d9f6d13e1a996effb810fb73cd8d2.png

  • HD

    Sorry that was a bit early.

  • HD

    I’m gonna keep it to 5 and 10 point trades. Not feeling like much risk rest of the year.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    but something x-file crazy.

    the next time the markets get all sinusoidal (green line) on us.

    I’m pulling out a fibfan in such manner. check out the blue circles.

    Muwahaha.

    -GG
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd0fff134b0f54e2b688a1ec1f1679b26e62cb914b5a89ae854ea3ddb1a15e45.png

  • Jason13

    Nice!

  • HD

    Ok. That was 2 chances to scalp 2780.

  • HD

    Oil, was a good run selling- breaking 2 month TL. Will trade long into fib retracements. $63 is HWB

  • Mark Shinnick

    Might time to flip to Predator mode.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Intraday charts more specific 10 min chart a leading diagonal down from today’s high to 2773
    Love it !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Phony gap up this a.m sold into … Love it !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Most want higher to sell so you may be onto something. I’m neutral. 2835 would be sweet. Back under 2750
    And we can give them the treatment.

  • HD
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Nice HD … In MT December the bulls and bucks lose their antlers.We scout for them in the National Forests when winter hiking.Again nice bull HD !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Remember RSI(3) above 84 expect a pullback shortly
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    how’s your USO going?
    I’m getting a ‘close, but no cigar’ vibe.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p8950568218c

  • TimeToPanic

    Busy afternoon, no chance to check the markets. Might have closed out my NQ short at 16.30 GMT if I had done (posted on the previous thread, got in at 7097 I think). Will have to wait and see how it looks in the morning, I have a feeling it’ll rally again, probably take out today’s highs.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Needs a bullish close above resistance and channel per post and chart on previous thread. Not thrilled price action today i.e. gap up and sold into
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I took the last of mine off

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I want a bearish 60 min candle closing below 2774 to augment the bearish case
    JULIE

  • HD

    We could just use the 3 year TL above and the EOM rally TL below and be objective about the rest of the week? FWIW

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    GG, you might like this fib fan on QQQ, somewhat incredible, like a caterpillar crawling along a twig:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/oCc8aCej/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Tomorrow a bearish close below today’s low will also break below the 55 ema and a trend line If this occurs tomorrow it will bring down the Banks (BKX) in general https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de2cc9dcdc3361d8a6872a4649c8e53b16aba5965a00ebe20cc8ec7a9e48aca8.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks Gerb…. I was looking at 2.0 Bollinger on the. 6 month vix for a crush….I almost put some on this morning for a scalp. Wish I did!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Anyone shorting against today’s high ? Overbought daily and 60 min with a gap and failure. IMO good R/R
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Hello late start, but Julie, you are always as pleasant to read. And clearly you know what you want!
    “I want a bearish 60 min candle closing below 2774 to augment the bearish case”

  • Brishort

    Just got short on 3rd VWAP retest

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The little guy is hungry !
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    My targets aren’t clear though, I need to see what happens when ES 2774 comes back again.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Can’t. two indicators against me. and one is Month Begin= no entries!
    🙁

  • BKXtoZERO

    I missed it…. I was expecting push all day…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s a her, and her measurements are 2.5, 2.5, 2.5, 2.5 (cm)

  • TimeToPanic

    I got in this morning at NQ 7096 Julie.

  • Brishort

    However, nothing is clear yet that we get bearish at all. We are at VWAP again, zero is not negative or unusual. VIX as per GG is quite low, not exactly the set-up for a disaster. If VWAP is taken for good, revisiting the oen high is quite a possibility,

  • maxcherry
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK The open today hit my target within several pts.(computing a target for a 5th wave up from 2631 at 2793) ) Then up to 2800 then a failure . Just what I was expecting
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    The market is currently sideways correcting intraday its morning gap. Since it is going nowhere, all my short term SAR just turned to BUY… If VIX does not pick-up soon, buy orders are typical expectation for the close. Hence this market, especially NQ could levitate up.

  • BKXtoZERO

    As long as gap holds I just have to respect bulls ability to add on. I view these draw downs on gaps as a sign of a weak manufactured market….hoping for 2820 to 50. Check out Andres letter last night.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Brishort The consolidation since approx 12:00 following a possible leading diagonal down leads me to believe another decline strong possibility.
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Hummm, on the 5 min, counting since 11AM abc-x-abc is quite easy. Crossing below VWAP again could become very interesting and could make a more sustainable down move likely. (now I go back to the dungeon of punishment for my EW Heresy!!!)

    Looking to be short on VWAP down cross again.

    (whereby Zero VWAP is about ES 2868 right now).

  • ridingwaves

    bid on TBT L at 38.50…see what happens this week…rates might have to jump up to get buyers…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort my reply to you just down below — Same thing
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Missed it, thanks. Indeed!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Elliott Wave counting is tantamount to witchcraft guys. Zero edge.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    WHERE IS THE BLEACH!!!!

  • Sp00nman

    Looks bullish on the 5 min. Hourly not so bullish.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Who needs the zero when you are armed with Elliott Wave. He he he he

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    after the witches comes the flying monkeys.

    https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/l1wAAOSw0VZblbiL/s-l300.jpg

  • TimeToPanic

    I follow all manner of bloggers, including wavers. One is doing a live count today, and has been spot on so far. He has the same count as max at the moment. As with all stuff, it’s the practitioner that makes the difference, easy to mess up even with some good info.

  • Wave_surfer

    It is super, Super hard to believe, but evidently, an Elliott Wave counter thinks that a big bear market is coming.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliott-wave-theory-suggests-an-unsettling-event-will-occur-in-the-stock-market-2018-12-03

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX A break below the 10 min 34 ema will not be good
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Waves long term I do not like or trust. However on very short term movements intra-day I found they have some value to at least have a thesis as to where the movements are. Combined with BB and SAR, you achieved a decent look. But obviously, this is all extremely short term to time entries.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves
  • TimeToPanic

    He also called the top back in October, and the recent bottom, he’s pretty sharp. More than one way to skin a rabbit!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Still no confirmed break above 2789.79 on consolidation .. Bulls do not have an edge yet !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • TimeToPanic

    Be aware that Q (of QAnon fame) has hinted that the lid is going to come off some pretty serious Dem shenanigans this week. No idea if it will spook markets mind. I think it was the 6th or 7th?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Brishort

    This darn thing is going to close at VWAP!!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort I am watching it too IMO going down to 2723 2715 or 2687
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Nothing bullish about a high wave doji star candle overbought daily 60 min and 10 min charts with a negative divergence 60 min MACD
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    I agree. And it does depend on the EWer. I use one and one only and he’s been gold for medium term to long term. So yes, it is helpful with other corroborating evidence.

  • Sp00nman

    Anyone shorting the close? I’ll be interested to see what the put/call ratio ($CPC) will be at the close of today. Should be expecting a retrace of this bull move soon. Looks like an intraday rising wedge on ES starting around 12:30pm EST that might be concluding at the close…?

  • Jason13

    Nothing bearish about it either….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    There mistake was gaping it up like November 7th which was sold into. IMO same fate as November 7th My two cents
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Something else before I go back to work. Everyone thinks that the trade negotiation with China was hammered out on Saturday with the U.S. – China dinner or whatever that picture was. What ! The deal was already struck before they even met … Thru negotiations behind the scenes. This is priced into the market now
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Bannable offense?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nope, wave counting is tantamount to reading tea leafs. This is coming from someone who used to do it until 2010.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why do you think I always ignore the news? Complete waste of time.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Of course – it’s manipulated by TPTB

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehe

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I do too Chief ! Amazing that people think that when a President meets with Putin that they are discussing whatever and awaiting a decision then. Good God Chief it has already been made sometimes even months prior to the meeting. I can’t believe how gullible people are !
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    i went short today via puts but i have some call protection

  • HD

    Same old argument but I believe that is the difference. You were a “wave counter” instead of using the fractals As one layer of probability. You got all caught up in abc x 12345 crap. Who cares what the count is. It essentially is no different than trend trading.

    Those EW strategies timed the bull wave completed, near 2919, and also the 2600 symmetry. In real time. FWIW.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bot some Jan DRV $11 calls 5 cents . Don’t know about overnight shorting equities yet.

  • ridingwaves

    I use it for symbols not indexes per se…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Most excellent, Fear.. fear is our ally

    A most unorthodox and probably BS placement of a fibfan (triangle 1)
    Triangle 2 achieved, close that gap.

    RSI was a bit too spicy hot.

    -GG
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b578812c682d79ad1ec12fe7994ea823697eea41e0d501575225637972915a81.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Christmas tree up and decorated ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You ‘betcha.

    Drinking Hot Chocolate, 48F
    Brrrrrr.
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    done.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The rally from 2631 could be over as stated today in a post. The minimum target for a wave C was 2765 which was attained Friday (2761) almost on the nose. Today was just B.S.esp with the gap up that was sold into. Nothing has changed GG with the tariffs just talk and BS. The banks are not buying it which is huge canary
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    As the case with month end/begin. but the confusion was palpable.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG In a market in trouble the pop beginning of month as everyone discussed is an avenue for the smart money to distribute more shares
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    agreed. however, remember all this zig zag crap is not going to last.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG if a decline watch 2723 2715 – 2717 and 2687 for a corrective decline. If a turnaround at these targets and going above today’s high then it will go higher perhaps to 2862 and 2844 Could go to 2892
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    too many numbers. tilt. tilt. abort.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Very easy watch for the turnaround on the 60 min chart and if today’s high is exceeded with the turnaround then a failure 60 min chart again at the targets mentioned Even a 2 hr chart
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if todays high is exceeded I’m back to 2888.

    I stick by my Dec 17 date, HIGH or LOW.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Your 2888 matches my 2892 we can nail these legs GG I have all along. I got out early on one but I had my reasons and not hurt at all. I just did not have the profit that I could have had
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Well, definitely better than Platinum, LOL.
    I’m turning in, big day tomorrow.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Me too GG have a nice evening and see you tomorrow
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    I was of the impression you followed prechter or someone?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No I most certainly do not. I used to until 2010 when I finally saw the light. My trading has markedly improved ever since I stopped believing in superstitions.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty

    I actually paid for “live trading”! The guy calling it was wrong on most if not all calls. Read the book instead….. But you gotta admit this IS NOT the market we were working 10 years ago

  • TimeToPanic

    Plenty of smart folk I read reckon you’ll see both together.
    QE to fund the feds, rising interest rates, as always, because the markets prefer other assets to USTs.

    Sadly, America is trapped.

  • HD

    Actual footage of subs of FURU paid rooms as they chase alerts and being sold get rich schemes #tradingIsEasy pic.twitter.com/JEU9VujnQC— Modern_Rock (@modern_rock) December 3, 2018