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Monday Morning Briefing
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Monday Morning Briefing

by The MoleApril 1, 2013

Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.

Remember today’s April Fools Day – watch your six. The spoos are currently riding the 25-hour – if she gives way then we’ve got a NLSL and of course the 100-hour near 1555 offering support.

The NQ also on the rise but bumping against a diagonal resistance line that’s now meeting both ST Bollingers – possible reversal point at least down to the SMA.

Here’s the YM to complete our equities trifecta – also pushing against diagonal resistance line – I think the NQ setup has slightly better odds. IF it breaches then I have an inkling we’ll see a fast run higher.

EUR/USD has been creeping back up to its 100-hour and its 25-hour over the past few sessions. We’ve got a stack of Net-Line Sell Levels (NLSLs) below and thus we want to be mindful of a possible long breach here.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • gsavli

    longer term perspective, ES vs HG chart.

    btw, was looking at the industrial metals charts, to see how inflation reflects upon them. well, it does not. it is only gold/precious metals, which are showing considerable rise in comparison to equities (or USD), which makes me think, that gold might be the odd one here (if industrial metals are showing picture better and more correctly, Zn, Al, Cu…).

    Mole, you gave as a SPX chart (i think it was SPX, or was it USD?), corrected to gold, which showed decrease of real value of equities (USD?), what do you think about the idea, that maybe industrial metals reflect inflation better than precious metals, which are these days viewed somewhat as a hedge and being bought for that (hence, their price goes up, if demand goes up).

    I do not know about FEDs QEs, but ECB’s QE (bond buying program) was “sterilised”, ie. – ECB pulled out of circulation the exact amount of EUROs, as they bought portuguese, spanish, greek, etc, bonds (the bailout money was matched with removal of the exactly the same amount of euros from the circulation). That is hardly a drive for inflation.

    Doesn’t look as if much is going to happen today, so a little bit of musing about inflation. And copper, what do you guys think, is HG still a predictor of things to come to equity markets or is the correlation now broken?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    TSLA
    wow, gap up into all time high
    must be some kind of news, don’t have time to check

  • BobbyLow

    Funny, I just finished reading this.

    “the electric-car maker headed by billionaire Elon Musk, climbed to a record after saying it turned its first quarterly profit on higher-than- forecasted sales of its Model S sedan, overcoming a controversy about the car’s performance.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-01/tesla-says-it-turned-profitable-as-model-s-sales-beat-forecast.html

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Car is fantastic!
    They spared no expense, Model S is a marvel of modern technology, and Elon Musk is a genius.
    As for first profit, I’ll wait for earnings to come out. Their CFO is a moron, he got ripped to shreds by analysts on last conference call.
    I am carrying 1 full position. No plans to sell or reduce (not yet)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Russell underperforming SPY.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM:SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p58015589030

    ok, off to cubie land.

  • jmoney3000

    Awfully quiet for a morning where the Russell trades down over 1.5% off the open in the first 90 mins…..

  • BobbyLow

    Good call on /NQ Boss. I’ve been kinda “in like” with them lately.

    I managed to grab a few points on the Dark Side. Nice to draw first blood on a Monday AM.

    It might have more to go but like you said, “it’s April Fools Day” so I just grabbed and ran. 🙂

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    8 Snp Points down?
    wheeeeeee.

  • BobbyLow

    This is some weird action all around but it is also the type of action that is “The New Normal”. 🙂

    Nice action in the /NQ though.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s FDOM. I always watch for weird. Market keeps finding new ways of weird.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Europe is closed.

    FDOM – Fluorescent Dissolved Organic Matter ??? What?

    or
    Federal Defenders of Montana, Inc., http://www.fdom.org

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Double bottom on 5min Crude Oil.

    96ish May Crude seems to separate bulls from bears

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    First Day of Month.
    ha ha ha.

  • BobbyLow

    I wasn’t sure about FDOM either but I did find Federal Defenders of Montana on Google. Still not sure though.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    June gold futures just got a 10min hard on.
    (sorry trading mom, I don’t think she’s lurking anyway)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    No more drugs for me

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Must be that P3 Prechter was talking about in the past few years.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re welcome sir – evil is as evil does 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    $NQ_F – taking profits now. IF you missed it sign up for my early morning briefing above.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    …and back down. it’s gone.
    must’ve been a quickie.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m no bull, but perhaps this chart will explain my 8 pt sarcasm comment.
    [Spoos 30min, w/200sma]
    http://s13.postimg.org/gbxp66kkl/temp1.png

  • BobbyLow

    Take a peak at /YM and or the DJA today. It has been steady as she goes all through this minor (a’hem) downturn. /ES has also begun to slowly work it’s way toward VWAP. If it blows through and closes above, it could be another “wonderful day in the neighborhood”. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy, corn getting manhandled today. Anyone know what’s going on?

  • amokta

    I will leave top picking to the proven expert Prechter, but is there any evidence for a trend change? When does a house of cards fall? Why do birds suddenly appear?
    NYSE volumes falling trend?

  • Skynard

    Signal spending allot of time below, short at VWAP:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Major’s red. NAZ leading, S&P, followed by DOW.
    no weirdness there. defensive Market posture is the theme for today, me thinks.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no. but a quick scan of Thursday (Fri was a holiday) shows a lot of corn going-ons.
    “Corn ETF Crashes as Farmers Plant Most Since 1930s”

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Choppy waters masking Shark Fins.

    Might watch the rest of the day from the beach. 🙂

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    they said last week that we have loads of this stuff.
    I think USDA is either wrong or manipulating market for somebody
    Price clearly disagrees with my knowledge, so i don’t argue

    Waiting for dust to clear

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I have a place setup for you. 😉

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Nobody planted yet (not in meaningful size anyway). Still too cold, drought, even some snow still remains. It’s a strange spring in USA, not farmer-friendly.

    They take planting intentions and count it as done deal.

    Of-course, it takes only few days to plant, still its hardly an indication of future harvest. Last year was a record intentions and highest planting of corn ever. Did it make it a bumper crop? No. It was a disaster because of weather and drought.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Nice
    What do we have starting in June-ish?
    Heat wave, methinks

  • Schwerepunkt

    It’s continuing fallout from that farm report from last week.

  • Curiousmind3861

    silver is looking pretty crappy at the moment. Looking at the T, shouldn’t it have gone up during March?? since it didn’t, does it mean it will tank hard now? A little confused about this kind of T. Please help.