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Monday Quicky
48

Monday Quicky

by The MoleNovember 5, 2018

I’m kind of getting bored of reporting on realized volatility, which in itself is sort of an oxymoron. My personal feelings aside, contrary to what one would expect the worst type of tape actually does not occur when RV is pushing up – it’s when it is dropping after elevated readings. Let me show you what I mean:

Here are two examples on my hourly E-Mini chart. Note that RV was punching higher ahead of time – and in both examples it was when the tape was falling (no big surprise there). What happens then is that it starts rolling over, my blue indicator candle flashes, and then it sort of devolves into a correction. Which may then followed by another leg lower, or perhaps a short squeeze higher, while of course RV expands again.

My general point is that holding past that exhaustion signal was a bit of a risk but my exposure was small and predicting the depth of the ensuing correction was impossible. Especially with the mid term elections scheduled for tomorrow which usually is good for a few wild swings.

So I’m  out at 0.3R and the whole expedition was hardly worth the hassle. But at least no loss on the books, so that’s good! Now I would usually re-enter here after the weekend as I really like the short term formation but I think we’re going to see a ton of chop today and I may be able to get a better entry. IF you enter here then make sure your ISL is a mile away.

The one chart that’s making me smile this morning is, you guessed it, that of King Dollar once again crushing the shorts. I’m now moving my stop to break/even and if you caught this one so should you!

Not surprisingly our USD/JPY campaign is also in A-okay shape. Once again our stop goes to break/even and Bob’s your uncle – no overthinking this one as it needs to get out of the gate.

As you know gold was the inverse campaign I took intentionally, banking on a large resolution on either side. Strangely gold has not dropped as much as I thought but if the Yen continues higher I’m am pretty certain that we are looking at a stop out here. Again, this double entry was intentional and thus everything is going according to plan.

Alright, now no matter what you do today, I need you to go out and vote tomorrow! You guys have no idea how easy you have it being stateside. For me living in Spain it was a major pain in the ass as I had to request a ballet by mail three months in advance which took over a month to get here. Then I had to fill it out and mail that one back way ahead of time, assuring that it would arrive by Nov. 6th.

Okay that doesn’t sound like a big deal now that I’m typing it plus after all it’s my patriotic duty. I hope you all will follow suit, no matter which candidates/party you decide to vote for.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • ridingwaves

    the widow maker chart is eerily similar to the WTIC chart when it was in $30-40 range…..I think we get $5 natural gas this year….yummy…..back from Kona….

    auctions $83 billion in next 4 days should create some drain on stocks

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • bankwalker

    Rs vote Nov 6, Ds vote Nov 7

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – you really think anyone falls for this??

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nice try tho

  • ridingwaves

    I like it wtic 60, energy complex seems to move up after the 15th this month…
    I’m waiting on crude but locked into NG lower…..hoping for breakout above 2016 spike in coming months…

    Oregon is the new N. Calif. for weather…..don’t be fooled by old patterns….the shift in weather patterns is pushing rain even further north…don’t rule it out…

  • bankwalker

    long /ES 2725.75

  • maxcherry
  • Miguel Sanchez
  • Ronebadger

    From the 60s:
    “Go to the polls and vote. Vote for the Kennedy of your choice, but vote!”

  • bankwalker

    I’m curious what the world would be like if Joe Kennedy hadn’t bought the election for his son.

    Maybe some of the following wouldn’t have happened:

    Cuban Missile Crisis
    Bay of Pigs
    Assassination of president
    ramp up of Viet Nam war
    Great Society
    Immigration act of 1965
    Watergate

    Just a few off the top of my head … for better or for worse …

    I guess we’ll never know.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB From the 60’s too
    “Nixon’s The One”
    JULIE

  • Ian Naugler

    I voted for the antiwar candidate…oh wait…#nevervoting

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV 13.70 very strong support
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I wonder what if that younger Kennedy hadn’t got on small planes.

    Do you think he (Kennedy) would pull-in the younger vote?! me thinks so.

    https://i.imgur.com/PQETxH2.jpg

  • bankwalker

    We may soon find out …

  • Mark Shinnick

    Is that like…. “time exists so that Everything doesn’t all happen at once”?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    NAZ was leading downward at open.

    QQQ’s – into the PitchFork for today.
    174’ish for an optimistic high later this week.

    Off to Lunch!!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/841ee517cff09609746c5a6d70281c0146130a0a96e1f7474e0c0af071a10460.png

  • originalfamousray

    we are a republic, not a dynasty or crime family mob or monarchy.

    JFK was republican by today’s standards, his brother not so much. LBJ a complete liberal. LBJ and JFK were both notorious womanizers while IN OFFICE. So was Clinton. Power mongers of the worst kind.

    PASS .

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That is your only criteria – well, if you’re that specific then you basically declared yourself to be a non-voting non-citizen. Don’t complain if you don’t like what you are waiting for.

  • bankwalker

    long /NQ 6911.75

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    bored. everybody’s given up. I have nothing to work with here.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Didn’t like any set ups today… I love your volatility posts myself…. Never get tired of hearing about volatility.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    INTC,
    the pressure’s building in the caldera. at least it appears that way.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/daf727499a77b2afa7908b0f6a47aa6f4dede00c14754d1aedce22daf08980bb.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Waiting on crude a little lower…. ES maybe a dip into tomorrow then rally to 2800

  • bankwalker

    Doing good here Mole. I switched to the next higher time frame today as a test … same signals but fewer of them … Unsure of the impact on the bottom line right now.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief I am in a holding pattern
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    long /RTY 1546.80

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 45.02 1R, I was watching this weak little pattern this morning and stayed away of the little bearish looking wicks on ES…. I figured there would be a little pop. ( he he he he) being patient. See if we get down move, if so, then on into tomorrow, then rally to 2800 area

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, it’s a volatile topic.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Everyone has given up, everyone but one tiny Gallic village:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18332cf9923f024e679d4429d513b7cf22492f3c0b55bc806b792e9b68b0f495.jpg

    (I don’t think any of you yanks are going to get this joke)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nope, but sounds like the last real men on French Territory!

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Alesia

  • BKXtoZERO

    Time to que the evil laughter clip but I am at lunch so manual laughter… AAAHAAAA HA. H A he he he…. It’s been a while

  • mSquare
  • mSquare

    Thanks for this reminder. Sold calls against stock (again)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I bought your calls. (shudder)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • Sp00nman

    Just wanted to say thanks to the Mole for all the info. I’ve been lurking here for a month or so and finally ponied up for a sub the other day. *hat tip*

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • mSquare

    Great – I aim to buy them back lower.

    In general I only sell options. Rule-of-thumb if stock below 200day then sell calls else sell puts to aquire it cheaper…

  • bankwalker

    holding longs overnight

    trying something new

  • BKXtoZERO

    holding this small position for tomorrow. Viva La Resistance!

  • BKXtoZERO

    One of us will be happy tomorrow. Small for me

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    YUP – I grew up with that stuff 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – they were and they are obviously long gone. That’s not me talking but my French wife, and she should know.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Edgy

    I love these stories! My dad had a collection of them that he brought back from Belgium. During my stay in France, I gathered one for myself.