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Much Noise On The Eastern Front
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Much Noise On The Eastern Front

by The MoleSeptember 16, 2019

Once again the prospect of a war with Iran hangs in the air this morning. True to form pundits in the mainstream media are falling all over each other peddling opinion pieces rife of impending doom & gloom. The lowest hanging fruit, especially when it comes to any conflict in the Middle East, is of course the prospect of an explosion in crude prices as purportedly evidenced by a record spike overnight in the Brent and (strangely) the WTI futures that briefly scraped the 20% mark.

Most participants would have already rolled into September last Friday but if they have not it’s going to be a rather rude awakening this morning. Despite all the media hype it’s clear that this spike isn’t far outside the level of volatility crude traders are very well used to handling.

It does however shift the dynamics toward a more bullish cycle in crude, especially should there be increasing tension and conflict coming from the usual suspects in the region. Which I’d wager is almost procedural.

Futures have opened lower but seem to be holding ground thus far. To be honest a drop back toward 2960 would be sublime as such a formation would have good odds of resolving higher – preferably starting in late September into October.

UVOL/DVOL continues to show a tightly managed market which suggests that algos continue to chase momentum and volatility. That’s not a judgment per se – it’s just suggests that a sudden sell off could be greatly amplified if liquidity becomes too one-sided.

The VIX invariably is going to open higher today which should help any calls you may be holding. Not that I would ever recommend holding long calls or puts over a weekend but I digress.

If you are feeling bearish then you will enjoy the seasonal statistics which show us in the fourth most bearish week of the year.

Just to crown it all off it’s going to be a Fed week with economic projections, interest rate decision, policy statements, the full FOMC Monty so to speak.

Given all this it’s fair to say that we are going to see quite a few fireworks this week. I suggest you trade small and keep your stops at a safe distance. Or even better, keep your powder dry until Thursday.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    oil up is hard to trade against…there is a sector of symbols beat up that the big boys can play now….

  • HD

    Full moon marks time again. How many times do you have to see it before you trade it?

  • HD
  • HD

    Here’s OVX, the oil vix. also a POS, if you think these indexes are predictive at all. It’s subjective. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d1b0c6e08eeaa8d8a4c5a4ab6c72ac8a3c61c76cf493b330891e625de45ea6b.png

  • ridingwaves

    Bio sector heating up, LABU 43 target within reach, moved up stop to 39

  • ridingwaves

    with oil up, natural gas shorts have to be worried about follow thru with NG….a spike to 2.86 would be unwelcome….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • BKXtoZERO

    I have some “core” beliefs and one is that I have never felt good about shorting oil. I can think of many reasons for spikes but few for massive drops. Same with gold.

  • HD

    Jmho. They tested the round number today. Twice.

  • HD

    My core belief. Oil is a widow maker.

  • ridingwaves

    yummy…..have some runners playing out now……costa rica here I come….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Cyd

    Hello Mr Gerb SLC a great place to have a 2 hour lay over.
    JULIE and Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Where is everyone lately? Not much activity here in the past week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BL is AWOL. The girls are flying to Portland.
    Yoda disappeared months ago.

    BK, step it up!

  • ridingwaves

    interesting, with as many fortunes that have come because of oil..

  • ridingwaves

    all the students are back in school…how did you make out with those flash floods over there….

  • Cyd

    PEN showing relative strength and now up into 55 ema @ 150 . Remember target 151 – 159
    JULIE and Cyd

  • bankwalker

    lurking and working (very hard) …

    not necessarily in that order …

  • pepe

    I’ve been looking into the options but they have a big spread and very low or none open interest. Wondering how I should potentially play this.

  • Mark Shinnick

    DRIP’s – 34% today, and since late August reminds me of the pitfalls of being a passive player.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No issues here in the city. But some outside areas received a TON of rain with major flooding and mudslides.

  • Cyd

    Pepe Remember TLT if it went below 55 ema then watch 89 ema. Could be a bounce at 89 ema

    JULIE and Cyd

  • Cyd

    EXAS retest of 144 ema.and support https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/94ee1fc4edd1aff4fbc1503143c7e033e4b037e6ffb3f093144e69c11fead320.png May go long above 5 ema then short at the 21 ema
    JULIE and Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    The MKT sucks…. That is why no one is here… Under complete control and boring again. More people posting with higher vix and things moving both ways.

  • ridingwaves

    zeroedge syndrome taking hold…..don’t do it BK…..stay hungry…..Biotech is going to rocket if it keeps momo up…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hear you mate – it’s been a rough year. Actually rough two years as 2018 sucked balls as well. I rarely post setups right now as everything keeps moving in circles. Let’s hope Q4 brings some direction.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BTW, there is a great options strategy for the market you describe. Unfortunately posting it here would completely go over everyone’s head… I’ll probably post it over on Red Pill Quants in a few weeks.

  • bankwalker

    you may be underestimating some of us …

  • Cyd

    This emotional support crap has gone too far.There is a guy that wants to bring his emotional support snake on board a flight and things are getting interesting here at the airport Some yelling going on and.It had better not be on our connecting flight
    JULIE and Cyd

  • BKXtoZERO

    Bummed for missing TWO major trends on NUGT and UGAZ. I was all over UGAZ too… I was so convinced we would see. 1 handle spike low that never came.

  • Cyd

    Watch cocoa on a pullback to buy
    JULIE and Cyd

  • mSquare

    Brave. I would look to short if looses psychological $100 or the 200day not much below it. Perhaps a good product but not so good a stock with more losses to come and buyout unlikely

  • bankwalker

    unfortunately nothing short of a war will fix our problems …

    the inmates are running the asylum …

    and they won’t give it up voluntarily …

  • Cyd

    We want to short a lower high on a bounce Possible bounce here and as stated may go long above 5 ema and target the declining 21 ema. No position yet
    JULIE and Cyd

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions Sharon

    Are you refering to the directionless options that you were asking about? I studied that subject in a class during my MBA studies and loved it. I am most interested in re-learning those formulas and setting up trades based on that.

  • Cyd

    We were out of remaining position BAL on Friday BAL is a thinly traded ETN for Cotton Out at parallel channel and 89 ema.Our position was small https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03941623581c5cd44801e5d2c8d26ce8dea495857783c0fb45736f3bea52c638.png Watching for a light volume pullback to support and 21 ema
    JULIE and Cyd

  • Cyd

    Keep an eye on Cocoa We like it on a pullback. COT Commercial long is positive
    JULIE and Cyd

  • ridingwaves

    Don’t know if UGAZ move is over….a run to 2.73 and it meets declining 200sma…..a jump over and 2.84 is doable…..now with this SA oil shock, NG might follow its brother….

  • ridingwaves

    a town for you….
    https://leavenworth.org

  • pepe

    Looks like the USO pop is now being heavily sold into. For prices to stay at this level the “crisis” must escalate significantly. Drop on any positive news, me thinks.

  • ridingwaves

    CL could fall back to 61.30 area but if 6 or more weeks of delay in production…..could go much higher…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Over who’s head?

  • HD

    1 fortune made, several lost to make that happen.

  • pepe

    Bought OTM SQ October puts. Bounce on meh volume and failing getting over $59.85. Targeting $50 support.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    true, so far oil has been easiest market sector for me to profit from….

  • ridingwaves

    well with new and latest message from Potus, I don’t see this moving down

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks great for a Christmas vacation.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Every time I put up a post about options everyone’s eyes seem to glaze over.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Maybe but I didn’t see any questions or signs of interest when I put up options related posts in the past. I’m sure there are exceptions but my inkling is that the crew here is not keen on trading options.

  • VXXTrader

    Start an Options email list. Put me on it. My eyes glaze over for you……

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Back to 340 area, pocket some bear funds and call it a back test of the bear flag. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    updated chart of DOW – first posted last week – following the black arrow up – so far —
    will it reach the upper trend line – and throw-over?
    watching.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a891489ad56dbe98469bd923bc36671f3b226ae9a0a02d158595cdf0c4e5e2bd.png

  • HD

    I hear ya. And don’t take this the wrong way but I gotta call BS on this. A few people actually asked you to clarify these non directional options plays. Should be pretty straight forward. If you’re just building interest in a product to sell I get that too though.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions Sharon

    I trade options pretty much ONLY SPY, prefer options on stocks over the stock. just made a few bucks on MRO options. I hope you change your mind on giving us a chance to learn the rules of this trading method.

  • Mark Shinnick

    3Pers

  • Cyd

    Bummer We missed our entry into VEEV today A trend day with volume closing above 5 ema
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Anyone with thoughts on the white metal $SILVER ? Today a bounce 34 ema and 38.2% retrace. I would like to see it close above 5 ema and the broken trend line

    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/82016e3866c3c745c933539deb26726e72d36d0c7bcc85345f152c033b7ae8e6.png

  • Cyd

    I was going to say the RSI hitting 80 says it all Stats with RSI at 80 or above normally dictates a resumption of the uptrend The previous 80 in July resumed the uptrend
    Cyd

  • Cyd

    Mole above has 2960 as an important level That will be a lower trend line connecting the lows of 8/23 and 8/28
    Cyd

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Amen to that