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My New Best Friend

My New Best Friend

by The MoleJanuary 17, 2013

And that is why we always always and always rely in price – the ultimate denominator. Repeat after me – I will never argue with price – I will never argue with price! Quite frankly half a lifetime ago when I was a lesser trader my ego may have led me into taking out short positions yesterday. But like so many of you I had to learn certain lessons the hard way – meaning I had to pay the price for stroking my own ego and thinking that the market would ever care about my silly little charts. Strangely enough, since I adopted a position of acquiescence to the dicate of price my charts over time started to pay off.

So let’s say hello to our new best friend – Mr. Diagonal which has been serving as a perfecto jumping board for the past two weeks. To repeat yesterday’s sentiment: “Still looking supportive and as long as this diagonal holds take anything below with consideration.”

Well, there still is the matter of this. And it’s the reason I would be extremely interested in taking in short position if price would show any signs of weakness. Alas we have to wait and that may be a good thing. I would love to buy some vega with the VIX trading below the 13 mark. Hey, it was on my Christmas list after all!

Cotton update: Not sure how many of you used the ST panel to get positioned on the 11th. Since then it’s been going gangbusters and if you followed me into this abyss I would suggest you take profits now.

I hate to quote myself again (not really) but here it is from yesterday’s update: “Copper looking bearish – today’s drop through the 100-day would usually put me into a short position. But considering the weekly panel I would wait for a drop below the 25-week SMA.” And that, ladies and leeches, is why I correlate different time frames 😉

Natgas – didn’t see this coming but my sleepy early morning entry turned gangbusters a short while after. Take profits now unless you want to hold this one all the way on the daily.

Bonds update – yesterday’s entry at the diagonal. It was speculative but sometimes it’s better to be lucky then good, right?

Some very juicy setups lurking below – please follow me into my winter lair:
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ISRG at its 100-day SMA plus its 25-week SMA. Great inflection point and I’d take it either way. Right now I’m long with a stop below (we have breached since I took this).

ICE is kissing that SMA as I’m typing this. Short right now with a stop above. Put your stop above 131.77 (the weekly NLBL).

Break out on CME – I like it and want to be long. But it’s run a bit already and thus I await an SMA retest. If we get it that is – they happen to be among my favorite setups. UPDATE: fat change – this thing is really running…

Soybeans are back at the SMA. I do like retest as I said but I don’t like the SMA falling like this. However there’s support on the short term side (the BB), so let’s hold on to this one unless we breach below. There’s a NLSL on the daily now offering additional support.

The 30-year is touching ST support. I would be interested in a long position but only if she manages to breach that daily NLBL again. So we wait… if we close below then we may see continuation to the downside.

USD/CHF – nice breach of the 100-hour plus we got an ID breach today. I’d be long here with a stop below both the 100-hour and today’s ID trigger.

Last but not least NZD/USD – guys keep a close eye on this one as it’s really coiling up. We had an OP followed by a whole series of inside periods (or inside days). Plus it’s painting a triangle formation of some sort – I am going to be all over this one!



About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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