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New All Time Highs
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New All Time Highs

by The MoleAugust 30, 2018

New record closes for the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, and Russell 2000. Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet gaining over 1.5 percent. Which of course makes complete sense as profits should be assigned alphabetically. Sorry TSLA, get back in line. Anyway, equities are on fire again and the bulls are running the show. Nevertheless I keep seeing incessant top calling in the comment section, almost non-stop for several weeks now. Here’s a little take away for you guys: Life as a trader is very easy.Β When looking at a chart, just ask yourself what a retail trader would do, and then do the exact opposite.

Okay, I may be exaggerating a tad but I really hope you get the point. Otherwise please email me privately so that I can send you a private invite to Perma Bears Anonymous. Now quit your sobbing as it’s time for some charts:

I keep advancing my trail conservatively, which is a policy that has served me well over the past few weeks/months. Trail now goes to 1.9R as we’re bound to get a bit of a pull back.

Now before you accuse me of being a turn coat – there are early signs pointing at a possible shake out attempt. For one risk is being priced in as indicated by the SPX plotted against the SPX/VIX ratio.

What also irks me is the rising option smile which is now starting to look like this:

I’ve drawn lines on the VIN/VIF panel to give you an idea of what I’m talking about. No reason to panic, but be aware that we are heading into more turbulent territory, historically speaking:

And there you have it. Next week statistically is a bearish one interrupted by the 2nd most bullish week of the year. So if nothing else the long summer lull is finally drawing to an end and it’s time to put our game faces on.

Wipe out on silver and we are back

The USD/JPY is producing again after a few days of sideways churn. Trail now goes to about 1.3R near its rising 100-hour SMA. I don’t think we are done yet, especially if old bucky finally finds a floor.

The EUR/USD also heading higher and my trail now advances to 1.6R. There is upside resistance ahead in the form of its 100-day SMA. I don’t put a lot of stock into that as it hasn’t been touched for a long while. But in my mind the easy run of this rally should be drawing to a close.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Ronebadger

    When’s the next Perma Bears Anonymous meeting?

  • randomuser6789

    The club is in financial trouble. Members can’t afford to pay their dues.

  • HD

    ouch! Ha, I don’t remember anyone ridiculing the dollar bulls at 96.50 as it tanked. Guess it’s personal now πŸ™‚

  • HD
  • randomuser6789

    If you are talking to me, I am not trying to get personal here. I am making fun of myself as much as I am making fun of the Badger.

  • DaVerg

    i never liked cats, they freak me out.
    Now that image you posted is going to give me nightmares

    ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!!!!!!

  • HD

    πŸ™‚ not at all, the chief referred to anyone that tried to sell the rally as retail fades. Maybe some of us needed to hear that. Let’s see how it goes. GL all.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Option smile, most excellent.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Raff regression middle upper blue dotted line and exactly 2 % above it’s 21 ema could be the pullback. Let’s see the close JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/48a837f251f3df497ed0100a561625666532056494e04c714cdb7a5995e4117e.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG INTC A bearish close below 48.39 will be trouble INTC
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    INTC 49,56 still possible and a target
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Nice long red candle now please:) Have not graduated perm bear school yet but am very close.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi ST Julie doing one leg at a time …. IMO the pullback could be now referring to chart below in a reply to GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC 31.10 strong support. Now below trend line and 5 ema Needs a bearish close below the 21 ema approx 30.93 Watch the Banks ($BKX) Guys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2f51a1b2bfb65d73ff561cbf8ca922e2a969d308b0c75bfe0205b75e627aab4e.png .

  • Ronebadger

    Just when you think you’ve seen it all…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=95&v=kps82JmgoVg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RB Is it turbo charged like me right now ! LOL ! RB and Everyone Have A Great Labor Day !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The Chief escaping Spain LOL !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Aircraft engine, no practical suspension, completely impracticable ….but kudos for asthetics πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – if you still have issues logging into the Zero then please do this:
    – Log out of aMember.
    – Log back in again.
    – Access the Zero.

    If you still have issues after that then please email me so that I can forward your problems to aMember support. Sorry guys – this is something that popped up after the last aMember update and I’m working with support to get it resolved.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks badass but painful.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe – I’m getting there, guys. Summer here in VLC isn’t a lot of fun. It’s hot and humid as f…k.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What’s wrong with you – cats are awesome!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No more free doughnuts!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    burn baby burn.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    saw blade uphill, one thing good about Raff.
    if someone is trying to accumulate short positions, zoom out and REASSESS. (definitely a trend)
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief I had one of these in college JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Ronebadger

    Are you flying? We’ll want to place our bets…

  • bankwalker

    Yep – they taste like chicken!

  • Ronebadger

    Cats will be awesome when there are:
    Seeing Eye Cats
    Bomb Sniffing Cats
    Sheep Cats
    Police Cats
    Military Cats
    Guard Cats
    Search & Rescue Cats
    Tracking & Hunting Cats

    That just about ends the argument about how awesome cats are.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa32f49ef5e230ebbcb190344ddd81119282819aecb28bfb53816ecf8d9e61ad.png

  • Ronebadger
  • bankwalker
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys update on the “Hedgies” GVIP Possible crucial inflection point They will be in a sell mode below horizontal support and 5 ema Julie gonna ride their coat tails JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/726d9d048cbfb329def21121b075a81641106ace548712a1c9e2ea660bf1759a.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Do not show this to a girl on the 1st date. You will not get anywhere.! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d21df1149c28b6536f8aefb9dc78b0535489fc8f356a7c25e639293614a1c152.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX This is what is needed to safely short A drop to the lower Bollinger Band meeting the 55 ema and the lower trend line. Then a bounce to a lower high failing at the declining 21 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/20e6119f44ee409f7dd1cfc89b5fcf7dbc6c17fef1087b3d017be8ecb7c63e4f.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some inflection in here so small short equities.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, but look at that grind in early June. 3 or 4 days?
    ugh, who wants to take 4 days up the wazoo Account while waiting?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – I grew up very near to Puch as a kid. They are headquartered in Graz.

  • StockTalker

    We are off

  • StockTalker

    My TVIX kicking ass

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX This would be ideal and what I am looking for To short the lower high on a bounce https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/93204458ce875604e1c0c86f9b5232cc65cf524bb839c1b9d0245622f0b771da.png JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Need to see some /NQ torture here.

  • StockTalker

    We need a mammoth size move here to signal a squeeze.

  • HD

    no comment.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The present sell off is news related. Trump backing 200 billion in tariffs China as early as next week
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    “IF” bulls have capitulated we will see a strong commitment by the bears. VERY STRONG!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the bears are asleep. It’s when the bulls no longer have any more bulls coming onboard. THEN the boat tips.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    nope. confirmation bias!!
    (“news don’t matter”)
    Monkey mind trying to fill the WHY for WHAT just happened.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI was 70, now dropping.
    *shocked* I tell you, SHOCKED.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96200593079

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, Monkey mind crap really fks with everyone.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    *******************************
    PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT
    *******************************

    Month End Tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Kung Fu Fighting!……

  • BKXtoZERO

    Last night I saw ES down 2 and NQ down 5 points and as a joke posted Ruh Ro. Die Bitchez recalling classic ZH comment section language circa early 2000s. Maybe it worked! Not my usual style though….

  • BKXtoZERO

    You nailed it. Many times tvix crumbles.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Monkey See Monkey Do Love these overbullish ; overvalued ; overbought markets priced to perfection. Any hiccup and AHHHHH ! ! !
    JULIE

  • randomuser6789

    We have not seen capitulation on a daily time frame. Not even close.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Have you guys read my post by any chance? Just checking…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Of course the bounce (today’s low) is off the 5 ema … Too much ! On the sidelines SPX
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes Chief Thanks — Just watching the tape like you — No position SPX — I have a small short BAC and a long UNG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    over time, I’m starting to get a feel for it.

    the forum gets real quiet.
    then top calling and boredom reign.
    and then Wooosh.
    maybe not this week. but there’s almost a pattern to it.
    agree?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG No sidewinders in MT Just diamond backs Eastern Oregon there are some very big diamond backs. Gallatin Valley no snakes
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    No. It’s Ba woosh

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG There seems to be a pattern. I look for targets and try not to top pick. A reversal at a target is important. Now a reversal in SPX chart shown today (target) is a short esp a dump below the 5 ema
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A bozemanian expert snake handler eh?
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not much on the calendar Friday..
    https://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG MT very fortunate Contact with poisonous snakes is minimal. Lyme disease incidence is low too. Wear a bell hiking in the forests will usually scare bears away
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..and most bars too.
    πŸ˜‰

  • HD

    Week opened at 2887, rallied to 2917 (17 has been algo for August). 2902 is midpoint. Who’s in control for EOW?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG You must be careful in the Spring hiking in MT or anywhere in the Rockies as the weather can change instantly. Very true what they say about Spring time in the Rockies
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    UNG Very strong reversals today and yesterday Have a long Yeah ! BAC Short closing below it’s lower trend line ; 5 ema and very strong support (31.10) Yeah !
    JULIE

  • DaVerg

    I went to pet smart store yesterday. They were having cat adoption day. While walking around I say this really cool south american miniature greenish parrot. About 3 months old. What a cool bird, lots of personality. Dancing, flipping upside down, talking. If I got a pet it would be this type of bird.

  • HD

    BOTs

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…so far all appearing well within the margins.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Just saw article about a high rate of suicides in Montana. ZH

  • Ronebadger

    I just received my first GrandBadger…it’s a girl!!!