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No Respect
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No Respect

by ScottMarch 7, 2018

Scott Phillips here, taking over from Mole so he can pretend to step away from his computer for a few days (he won’t but it’s a nice thought)

Today I’d like to introduce you to the Rodney Dangerfield of market types.

Let’s look at the Sideways High Volatility Market and explore why it’s a FANTASTIC choice for building high expectancy trading systems. This market type gets no love, but I find building systems to outperform in sideways high volatility very easy.

Why? Because of recency bias. We are always viewing everything in context with what came before. Market is in uptrend and changes… we just naturally assume that a downtrend comes next.

When bulls are expecting a strong new uptrend… and bears a powerful new downtrend… there is huge fuckery potential. Yuuuge.

Because you have to understand that the highest probability outcome is the one that fucks over the greatest number of participants. Therefore the market type that fucks over bears AND bulls is always the highest probability. Which is the SIDEWAYS market.

This is gospel truth. Markets are a very efficient mechanism for screwing the greatest number of participants out of their money all the time.

Tell the truth… didn’t you think a new bear market was starting when it fell off the plate recently? If so, you got played by your own biases.

Back to first principles.

At any point in time we ought to be asking ourselves… what sort of market are we in?

We could be in an uptrend, downtrend, or sideways market.

Up until a month ago, we were 100% abso-fuckinglutely in an uptrend. No way to argue about that.

Now it gets interesting. What I want you to do is start examining bar by bar

If the uptrend is intact, dip buyers SHOULD magically appear. But when those dip buyers failed to show up … the market is a very high probability of shitting the bed.

It’s natural to assume that a downtrend is going to happen now. But trend changes are messy affairs. Topping is a process which takes a while, and rarely happens without a deep retest of the highs.

At this point we are no longer in a bull market. But we could be in a bear market OR a sideways market.

Fast forward a few days with me. This is a textbook bear flag setup. Any bear worth his salt will be salivating at the prospect of smashing through the old lows and driving a stake through the heart of the Trump rally.

So this is very interesting. We have a bearish setup so perfect it could be in a textbook. Bears are expecting to break those old lows and usher in a new regime of beartardness. A (stupid) part of me is always cheering for this… it’s ok to admit it.

So at this point… we aren’t in uptrend. We aren’t in downtrend. We *might* get a new uptrend if we break the old highs… but that’s unlikely.

What’s left? Oh yeah a sideways market. And obviously given the truly massive candles lately, a sideways high volatility market.

Now why are sideways high volatility markets good, and how do we trade them?

They are good because there is a huge distance between the top of the range and the bottom. Enough that you can usually get 3x risk reward ratio or more. AND usually 3x risk/reward comes with a very low win rate… but not with sideways high vola markets. You can find setups with around 50% win rate and 3x risk reward.

They are good because you have very clear guidance about where to get long/short and take profits. Which means that system building is EASY and QUICKER.

You do it just like this. Keep away from the trading platform until you enter the short zone or the buy zone. Pick ANY valid trade setup you like. It’s going to have a fantastic edge at those places.

Those who know me know I’ve been harping on about the same stuff for years.

The vast majority of traders “dine from the buffet of technical analysis”. They feel bullish, and post one set of indicators/averages. They feel bearish and post a different set.

When you do this you are always in grave danger of “seeing what you believe” instead of “believing what you see”.

I’ve been a participant in this blog since 2009, and I can tell you that every single profitable trader this community ever turned out trades with a system.

Mole trades with a system. Bobby trades with a system. I trade with a system.

You should too.

All the best

 

 


About The Author
Scott

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice to see you back.

  • Julie

    Hi Scott Glad to see you back also
    JULIE

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Thanks Julie!

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Thanks Mark

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Guys – I’m around for a week or so and I’m at your disposal. Let me know what you want covered or discussed and I’ll do my best to dive deep on it.

    If you want market updates fine – but IMO the stock market is going to take a little longer than we think to resolve direction here. After such a period of 1 way traffic the highest probability is a choppy snoozefest.

  • TerpFan

    Scott,

    Welcome back. Always enjoy your work. I’d like to ask if you’d talk a little about the Crypto Currencies. Kind of like, “which one’s to trade”, “reliable sources of information for coins”, etc.
    Mole already covered a number of exchanges, so I think we are good there. I’m just kind of stuck as to which one’s to trade, and why. There is money to be made there! Thanks!

  • Ronebadger

    Good stuff, Mr. Scott…keep it up…I’ll take more of the same…thanks!

  • Ronebadger

    I’ll take any thoughts you have on the VIX patterns lately…if you care to comment.

  • Yoda

    Love this stuff!!

  • Yoda
  • BobbyLow

    Great Stuff as usual Scott! Always good to hear from you. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Guten Morgen – I arrived safely at my beach resort. AMAZING view – will post pictures later.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hold that thought as I’ll be covering that in the future. Question is whether or not you want to be investing or if you want to be trading them. Completely different approach as you won’t be hitting it out of the park with BTC, ETC, XMR, etc. Trading the swings – I’d stick with the top 10 – see my pertinent post a few weeks back.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Send me an email with your availability so that I know when I’ll have to fill in here. Thanks!

  • Tomcat

    I find the use of the words “fuck-ery” and “shitting the bed” very refreshing given where we are in the market.

  • Ronebadger

    See, you didn’t FLY anywhere…you drove, right? THAT’S why the markets didn’t tank.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Hab einen schönen Urlaub!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    https://historybecauseitshere.weebly.com/playing-lucky-baseball-with-lady-luck-sitting-in-the-catbird-seat.html

    Leon Kessling “Red” Ames, made his pitching debut with the New York Giants on September 14, 1903, under manager John McGraw. By 1905, he had accumulated 22 wins and a 2.74 Earned Run Average, but then his famous curve ball failed him and he couldn’t win a game. Red looked for help. One day an actress he knew sent him a rabbit’s foot and a necktie containing the most atrocious color combination Red had ever seen. A letter accompanying them instructed him to wear the necktie every day and to carry the rabbit’s foot with him wherever he went. “If you do you’ll win,” the letter said.

    Red wore the tie and carried the rabbit’s foot. From that point on, he didn’t lose a game until near the end of the season and he wore the necktie until it was in shreds. His career Earned Run Average of 2.63 tied him with Cy Young.

  • ridingwaves

    Thanks Scott on candle wrap up thoughts, I really started getting into candles per your pertinent posts in the past on subject..You and Mole have different angles which helps soothe bias….

  • BobbyLow

    Hey GG,

    I’ve been trading XLE (ERX/ERY) for a relatively short time this round and it’s usually very highly correlated with my Crude trades and they move pretty much in tandem. However there are times when XLE gets sucked up with the regular equity market so when short crude and XLE there can be a cross current effect. I’m now thinking of increasing my R levels on Crude OILU/OILD on future Crude trades and eliminate XLE and the potential for cross current price action between the two. There’s also duplicate trading costs to consider on these two highly correlated vehicles as well. I’m curious as to what you think?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The top holdings of XLE are oil retailers.
    http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/holdings?t=XLE&region=usa&culture=en-US

    So the assumption is XLE is basically oil. But rumor is there is a lot of natural gas in the famous Energy ETF.

    A direct multi-year chart reveals the delta between WTIC & XLE.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94594171006

    XLE is more volatile IMHO. A component of that crazy Nattie inside of the ETF.

    If you want slower and steadier, pick straight oil. If you want crazy, pick straight up NAT.
    XLE is a blend, just like that ethanol gasoline.

    my 2 grams.
    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    Added to longside this morning’s dip consistent with the ongoing volatility thesis.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Something is up with the Zero. I’m getting 5 min charts on both sides. i.e. No hourly chart.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Holy crap…your confirmed away from post…and I’m friggin long :/

  • Tomcat

    Actually I would make a different argument, XLE’s top holdings are what is considered Big Oil (companies) which for the most part operate in two segments:
    upstream: exploration oil and gas
    downstream: manufacturing and selling oil products (main comp being GASO)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Du bist totes Fleisch

  • Mark Shinnick

    My advantage: Bring fleet of foot…and knowing I’m in those historical crosshairs.

  • Yoda

    Confirming the bug

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks GG. I had a pretty good idea of what I was going to do but wanted to get another opinion on this situation. I just ran a comparison of a limited number of my own trades with 3X’s OILU/OILD and 3 X’s ERX/ERY using the same amount of capital in each case and the OILU/OILD outperformed. I can’t say for sure that this would have always be the case because of the overall equity influence on ERX by the extreme equity bull run we’ve had during recent years. I’m not going to do a multi year back test to find out for sure. However, I’m going to go with the straight 3X Oil play in future trades. Another reason is that I’ve been averaging a little over 4 trades per week in the energy sector and this would cut that number in half. My results “should” remain “relatively” constant if not better because with rare exceptions, crude has always been in my wheelhouse.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks TC. This mix is correct. My biggest concern in the correlation between the two is that the components in XLE gets swallowed up in other baskets (ETF)’s etc. So it’s affected by overall equity gaps up and down where as Oil pretty much has a mind of it’s own. (This wasn’t always the case but it is now)

  • BobbyLow

    And thanks for the correlation chart. That speaks to this situation very well.

  • Tomcat

    Scott, so if we apply the same logic/chart (with buy/sell zones) to NQ, wouldnt this be a SELL level?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Glad you puled through that health scare. Maybe you can post a refresher course on Elliott Wave?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Cool.
    like a good horse manager, you are getting to know your race horses and their attributes. Some horses run consistent, some run great in the mud, some are ready for the glue factory! Even then, there is always the random sh!t happens just to spice it up.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m scouting a long if WTIC hits 59.50 and holds….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Lemme check…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero is fixed – sorry about that.

  • Mary

    Looks like BTC might be having that little bed problem that Scott mentioned above.

  • BobbyLow

    Being short I’ll welcome 59.50. 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    U.S. household debt grows at fastest pace in 11 years

    hmmm..what happened 11 years ago, all the tequila, cerveza, surfing, langosta and pescado and living in hopium world has blurred my memory?

  • ridingwaves

    i don’t know it will even get that far, since candles is the visual today, look at the tails at 60 and then 58 looks like a rock…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/65249a92b9c95927ec6bdb8a5df143fd4f0aa63419bdbe93bb1f9cdddd98e37c.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent summation 🙂

  • Yoda

    kein problem

  • ridingwaves

    let’s hope Mole gets some pescado and cerveza, the wife maybe langosta and sangria while unwinding…that 2460spx gap discussed in past still feels good after revisit to high…
    rate move this month could turn indexes either way…

  • BobbyLow

    Not so sure about 58 or 59 being a lock but of course it’s possible. I’m dealing with 30 minute candles and shorter term trends . Every time frame is going to tell a different story. If 58 or 59 or even 60 is it, my short term trend will stop and I’ll probably be ready to flip to the long side soon after.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That objective is smack-in-the center of a clustering of my own.

    Yeah, somehow “unwind” that Teutonic mentality.

  • ridingwaves

    if this trendline breaks no reason 54-55 cant be found, weekly is looking at golden x very soon, should add buyers, hasn’t been above since 11-14
    more of a longer term vision for me but we both win….winner!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/146cda34582b72cb2379e8e0ed5162bae5df4932fdecef12dffb93de0756c074.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well turns out the place here as fantastic Internet – I measured 38Mb/sec downstairs and 19Mb/sec upstairs. Now I will try to rest a bit while I’m here but I’m working on another exciting project which will demand a lot of my attention while I’m here.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Bitte schön!

  • bluprint

    Can I say both? In fact I’m starting to think of a trading app that would help with both simultaneous long and short-term campaign mgmt. I have income in crypto and with to keep long term investing/saving in crypto, and I would like to “trade” that savings on a long-wave to help out with the longer-term/slower swings but not have all that money tied up in more aggressive trading.

    So, then I’m also thinking about *trading* and taking some of that holding and using it for the purpose of actively trading for the purpose of generating income on which I can live. And that ultimately brought me (back) here.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Who in any right mind buys into ordinarily only small up candles in the face of those huge downs?
    Is that some equivalent to childhood’s “scary monsters”?

  • Julie

    Shorted USO after today’s open Initial target 11.79.
    JULIE

  • Julie

    SPX The upper cloud boundary has turned back the advances in February. Hmmm ! May act as resistance again and preclude this advance JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5e76c8ae1a8812afa8f2afb6be6a05dadc8d8b9aa9b16c2ae4cd4b1222b9ccff.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    someone closing an open position. whether for profit, or LOSS.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    plans foiled by Mrs. Evil in 3…2…1…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Great job Julie. You and Bobby nailed this trade.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …could have been me 🙂 I’m short right now.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …lets hope so 🙂 …some downside would be welcomed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Thanks TC I was hesitant yesterday as it closed above the baseline (21) USO now below the cloud. Here is an updated current chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0f9342162828a249912887d3971a2b71c8b477889b96f6f16025c72b16ae69b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    SPX The MACD stabilizing around it’s centerline indicates a possible triangle forming. That will definitely be a curve ball to screw everyone up as Scott alluded to in his post. Strong possibility of this occurring
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Backed-off, flat.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks TC. I’m sitting on just under +2 R at this moment with my stop set at about just under +1 R. So far so good. 🙂

  • Mark Shinnick

    …hasn’t it already been happening?

  • Julie

    Mark in a triangle the volume usually drops off so that would be a major clue
    JULIE

  • Julie

    BL Are you trading the 3X ?
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    yeah no doubt, if she was a poster it would be like wtf honey….

  • Julie

    RIOT I have a small long position. Stochs are embedded . Consolidating at a support zone and channels nicely JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/84b853904e96b8a2df2875676c73f870ec2111947ae9b2711af100fa7b7561d2.png

  • Julie

    GDX A Retest of 21 ? Any thoughts on the miners?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG Copper A lower trend line from September intersects approx. 3 .00 on your chart above

  • Yoda

    5 min Zero is neg divergent on touch of 50 d sma SPX

  • Julie

    The Powers That Be are not going to beat us good folk on this blog. They are going to try to wear us out. Not Me ! I will go to Hawaii for awhile and layout on the beach. I have accrued vacation
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like time to examine short miners.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    don’t forget the boots. a Must. LOL.

  • Julie

    GG LOL ! Schnee’s Boots !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Imagine the *looks* you would get on Wai ki ki? he he.

  • Julie

    Red bikini too ! All the right places ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Yes. – OILD

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time.
    Check.

  • Julie

    EXAS 51.24 is the weekly baseline (21) matching the daily chart lower downtrend line and upper daily cloud boundary Shown EXAS daily and weekly charts JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f50a2ffffaff5cd070e2b7fe2ae843ef9e0169bb858a907b671ff4f8673be3e1.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6e3a1b5902653a4c936efdeac7cbc546c27984d752a581125052fed5a3891dae.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT

    US DAYLIGHT SAVING in effect after this weekend.

    https://www.timeanddate.com/time/change/usa/new-york?year=2018

  • Julie

    Spring forward Fall back
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    unless the bed is broken. he he.

  • ridingwaves

    Mahalo Julie…love Hawaii, living in San Francisco makes it an easy trip…Kona Kailua is our kind of town…

  • BobbyLow

    Boy today was a perfect example of the equity market in general messing with the correlation between XLE and Crude. Both ERY and OIHD are very close in PPS and OIHD is up almost 6% and ERY less than 2%.

  • Julie

    We will fly out of Portland. Making reservations now. Gonna be fun RW
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Gotcha BL
    JULIE

  • Julie

    BL Usually crude leads XLE. That was in commentary Tom Bowley of stockcharts
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie but I found that I was trying to ride two horses that are very close in nature but one of them is more finicky than the other. And there is no need for me to ride both horses when I can ride one to get to where I want to go. Besides, I hate equities in general anyway so it was an easy decision for me to make. 🙂

  • Julie

    Right on BL. Exactly no need to double up
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Yes, unless it breaks out.

    But the edge is weaker because its a strong market. As a general proposition with related markets you want to be going long the strongest one and going short the weakest one.

    You don’t bet on the weakest football team do you?

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    HAHAHAHAHA yeah a turd of a turd wave will soon appear. Flushing the market down to all time lows. So low we can’t even count. Dow Jones below 100 for sure.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Exactly. I like Moles stuff for the same reason. Fresh set of eyes

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Vix is strongly mean reverting. That’s half of the game right there.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’ve got family in Hilo and Volcano on the big island. Been thinking it’s time for a visit, once ski season is over.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    QQQ’s weekly..
    divergence on the horizon. Higher price, lower RSI.

    Go Full Ben-Hur
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/75a681ff6e91d50a2704399ef71937720007b42d4c2331d46629a83451a34092.png
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks, it’s Friday already and I just got stopped on my short crude for +.67 R. Might be flipping to the long side soon.

  • Tomcat

    Concur. Tech is looking very strong and gold very weak. Below 1310, and I may start a S position.

  • BobbyLow

    Long Crude via OILU

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Now look at crude and SPX:
    http://schrts.co/7cfhxu

  • Tomcat

    I am long too BL. S Gold also

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    short term..
    there’s a *chance* for a reversal in the ratio. (oil strengthen, equity weaken)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af19e777bb54e938afd5afbac408b98a8d63ee1674a1cd6eb1b63bb51af739b6.png

  • BobbyLow

    Cool. We’ll see how it goes. 🙂

  • Tomcat

    Only way to go is UP UP UP 😉

  • BobbyLow

    That would be good. LOL

  • Tomcat
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    BL, taking 1/2 off at the end of this candle.
    Most likely will carry the other half over the weekend.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t blame you because that’s a lot of $ riding on /CL. Even with my 3X OILU, I’m still in the slow lane so I can stay in until I get stopped by my rules.

    Congrats BTW!

  • Ronebadger

    Anyone mention that today is the 9 year anniversary of the “Great Bottom”? (after the Great Recession)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, so entering price resistance as well as some volatility support. I would imagine notable volatility crush and good price action should these levels break through.

  • Richard Adler

    Question for veteran users of Zero Indicator: Am I wrong to interpret this latest rally as a short opportunity with divergence of zero indicator with price? Looking for some help as I’m a newbie

  • Mark Shinnick

    Aside from Zero, do you have a view of which direction would be the most surprising to most market participants?

  • ridingwaves

    told ya I set my buy to low…..grumbling fool I can be…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AabFChK-X1w

  • Richard Adler

    I would imagine higher although retail investors seem to be jumping on board at every dip and with the recent positive economic news, many would think this would be a good strategy

  • Mark Shinnick

    A very powerful thing if the money and confidence of retail is finally beginning to re-throw its weight back into things. Short Side has certainly had its fair shot.

  • Richard Adler

    point taken. thx

  • Darkthirty

    ST negative divergence……….

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    We have different styles. I think you’re able to make good judgement calls of perceived support and resistance and buy and sell accordingly.

    I look for what I perceive as enough evidence of strength to cover and go long and look for what I perceive as enough evidence of weakness to sell and go short. I’ve never been any good at using your style. But when it comes to crude oil, I can hang with the best of em using my system. So I guess it’s different strokes and all that . . .:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no. not at all {cough} Nine
    😉
    https://tradetrekker.wordpress.com/tdsequential/

  • ridingwaves

    Liking gold now NFP is history

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    HIgh Yield,
    well, it was looking bad just a few days ago.
    When I was a young lad, I would get so excited about a single Tee.
    But with pain and experience, I’ve learned to watch for the looming Larger.

    Credit is at the line, and threatening free liquidity for All, IMHO.

    Off to Lunch.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1f36e60829a50d662c7d840d5ef5776676b51df71867bd52a8d5832abb91955.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    So, pass-the-buck yet another time…or so it might appear. Te trap’s spring only gets wound more tightly.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    When water is a Million dollars a glass, some one will figure out which one has value.

  • Julie

    RIOT I have a very small long probe. Oversold with positive divergences and at a support zone.Not exactly showing relative strength. USO must have a positive close above 12.42.The volume pattern is not bullish i.e. the selling volume greater on the declines than the buying volume on the bounces JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3254125c55377e13869ecf0ea263312d9301aa1e104c046e1132e9da04053fb.png

  • ridingwaves

    2780 looms, that empty candle spike to 2790 jump on Monday and off to new highs….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f32e27c9673fb8086b19c0061298c7a2234a5a7f3d44306ee4f6fecc3074a9f.png

  • Julie

    RW A PMO buy signal ?
    JULIE

  • Julie

    USO A possible descending triangle forming. As stated below 12.42 is important JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e127dd57636ff148439c4d9ff30a4667855b3b690bf2fc896c9e15f941b0d47.png

  • Darkthirty

    Still got a gap at 26400? DJI

  • ridingwaves

    yes….the top gap fill is most likely, trap 401k money and retail up there for next move to 2460

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hey….Why not?? 🙂

  • ridingwaves

    Scott mentioned fuckery….that would be some….

  • Julie

    SPX This market very hard to trade Going to whipsaw a lot of traders. I am on the sidelines and wait it out. Today a gap and go One item to mention that is an excellent way to trade triangles is the 60 min chart overbought oversold with reversing candles In the past this has worked out well for me with triangles Hawaii here we come
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Well we thought we broke out when SP cleared 2740. Maybe we trap em again? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ab86d84c2aa95a2ffdc75df84660214c10790470bcccb5747c555defa44e0ee.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    why not trap more above, then make em sell at 2460? more painful, if they can break thru the 3 amigos before the big red candles moves of Feb, ATH time….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m calling a QQQ 1.272 extension high of 176.33

    -GG

  • Darkthirty

    Front month lotto ticket options

  • BKXtoZERO

    could be rabbit. You told me the VIX trade was “dead Jim” for a while…. and you were right. Thanks! I have done some decent scalping though keeping it close.

  • Julie

    The Heck with it Going to tan up in Hawaii. In all the right places Lol ! The boots first thing to pack
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    I follow that guy…but take him with grain of salt. You know, that DeMark stuff…it’s like Elliot

  • Ronebadger

    Someone mentioned a 15min SPX bull-flag a couple days ago…(ahem)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    A blonde was planning a trip to Hawaii. After getting the details about a package deal, she asked, “Would it be cheaper to fly to California, and then take the train to Hawaii?”

  • Julie

    USO Must close above the triangle upper trend line Weak volume today JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c58eb4aca26587bac4508a6d21903b10ffbaceab781ce063c7982fdf5d8e089b.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Ronebadger That was you ! Good eye !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..talk about Scum and Villainy!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Friday’s 85% of the time neutral to positive
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty
  • Julie

    GG A Greyhound bus would be cheaper than the train. Going to look into it LOL !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…impending volatility crush…on-deck.

  • ridingwaves

    right now shorts better show up or …..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vwx3pmXuOIk

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you kidding me? it’s the 9th anniversary.

    give a few days for the booze to wear off.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=920jLVQOLFI

  • Mark Shinnick

    May be time to let it rest for a while….or to keep that in mind…anything can happen now..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    SPX is like a “Rocky” movie. He’s up … He’s down … He’s up …. He’s down … He’s up !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    About VWAP time………….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a feel good movie for sure. just don’t watch the last one. His time is nearly up.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/AFLGd8hDNQ4/hqdefault.jpg

  • Julie

    Darkthirty VWAP is a great indicator. I use it also
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Julie, FWIW, I used to track volume on everything but I now have volume off my radar completely. For example, 10 Years ago or so, SPY used to trade at an average of 250 Million shares per day. Now it averages about 110 Million Shares per day. I believe that there are so many baskets for everything now days that with the exception of individual stocks, volume doesn’t tell the same story that it once did.

    USO is a basket of 4 different crude contracts and 1 of these contracts gets rolled every month. UCO holds the April Contract and a bunch of Swaps. OILU has the April Contract and Cash in it. These are only 3 of the many ETF’s among many other vehicles that also have Crude Oil in them which doesn’t include the debt driven Crude ETNs that also trade millions of shares everyday.

    Another thing is that the price of individual (ETF’s and ETN’s) can be driven with a little volume or driven with a lot of volume. For the reasons given above, the only thing that matters to me is what direction these prices are being driven in our bot driven environment.

    Just my 2 cents worth. 🙂

  • Julie

    GG My grandfather was a world class boxing trainer. He trained two world champs and countless top contenders. He trained fighters in the Windy City Gym (Chicago) Stillman’s in NYC Fifth Street Gym in Miami. Grand Avenue Boxing Gym in Portland. Growing up my younger brother and i attended many title fights. He always maintained the best boxers came off the streets of Portland. Portland has had some great champs and top contenders
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes, I can attest to the MeatHeads that Portland contributes.
    😀

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve forgotten about ole Russell, how is $RUT doing?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p73066506846

  • BobbyLow

    I wonder if Crude will test the January 25th high of $66.66? I guess “the ‘devil’ is in the details”. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Portland Heavyweights Thad Spencer and Eddie Machen both lost the final round and were ahead. So close. Portland would have had two Heavyweight Champs.Ray Lampkin beating Roberto Duran until the 14th round and Roberto got in a lucky punch. Denny Moyer Carl Olsen and Miguel Flores champs. All off the streets of Portland
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Perhaps. But if it does test that high, any explanation beyond having more buyers than sellers is beyond my pay grade. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I thought Tyson was old, what are we talking here, the 60’s??

    http://portlandobserver.com/news/2013/dec/18/portland-boxer-thad-spencer-dies-age-70/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    GG Like you was not born yet but my grandfather talked about them as he was instrumental in their careers. I attended the Riddick Bowe Evander Holyfields matches. Also Tyson Holyfield. Ray Jones Jr. title fights. Winky Wright ; Sugar Ray Leonard. Marvin Hagler.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Squeeze….capitulate…go with the flow retail.

  • BobbyLow

    Squeeze and Jam it tight. This is why I don’t like to swing trade equities indices anymore. If I did, it would only be for day trades.

  • Mark Shinnick

    It truly is financial violence.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s an excellent way to put it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …they say short covering rallys are the most violent.

  • BobbyLow

    True that. It’s a mad dash to see who covers first.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …so that’s how you guys broke the bed.

  • ridingwaves

    73-74 before June per my lens

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    One thing that really surprised me when I started measuring things is that stock indexes behave totally different than other charts. That old stuff about “a chart is a chart, doesn’t matter what it is” is complete crap.

  • Ronebadger

    But, I’ve seen a ton of bull flags that weren’t

  • Ronebadger

    The latest from Barrons. The public (AAII) is decidedly neutral.

    http://www.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-investorsentimentreadings.html

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    SPY or Emini Futures options?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    No, not a short opportunity. Note the Zero signal is not strong, i.e. less than 1, but it’s either zero or positive all day. Don’t see this as a short unless you get negative divergences or negative readings that give you a reason to, along with whatever other indicators you use.

    Make sure you check out the Zero tutorials Mole has.

  • evilasevildoes
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Humanity Passes 1 Zettabyte Mark in 2010.
    https://i1.wp.com/www.billpetro.com/wp-content/uploads/zettabyte.jpg

    Hopefully, the majority of them are not cat videos.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Awesome – will watch it tonight.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mostly selfies I think.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – here’s a little goodie for you guys. Hear your master’s voice! 😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brN9vP38yKY

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    We need to get you a better microphone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9E006QLHt0Y

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it will be interesting to see if there is a third thrust on the hourly by Monday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c24a0a02bb13c5448e82b31c3a5c2ab5f2261ee59e8361ee572490e56d8d8e7.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    I have the blue yeti, its excellent

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    NEW POST!
    NEW POST!