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No VIX Buy Signal (Yet)
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No VIX Buy Signal (Yet)

by The MoleAugust 2, 2011

For some reason the VIX buy/sell signal rules appear to be that one big mystery that continues to puzzle my stainless steel rats. Over the past three years I have posted the rules several times – but to no avail as I receive the same question over and over again. I guess that is the personal little purgatory I signed up for when I decided to introduce this little gem to the gray unwashed trading masses 😉

So for the nth time – here we go once more:

For a $VIX confirmed signal you need 3 events:

  1. A close outside of the 2.0 Bollinger Band (20-day SMA)
  2. A close back inside the 2.0 BB – this issues the signal
  3. A higher close (sell) or lower close (buy) than the close of the day back inside the 2.0 BB – this confirms the signal.

Once you get those three events a major reversal usually occurs within the next week. The sell signals used to be far more accurate than the buy signals, but in the past two years that relationship has reversed, thus I think it is dependent on the ongoing trend, which kind of would make sense.

So, what do we have going on right here today? We do have the close outside – check, we have a close in the inside – check. BUT, unless we have a drop BELOW 23.66 before the close we are not getting the confirmation. Which would mean no VIX buy signal and that’s very bad medicine for the longs.

And before you ask (and possibly incur my wrath) – no, a close below tomorrow would not matter. The whole enchilada resets and we would have to get a push outside the BB again first, followed by a close inside, etc.

Two more tasty charts for the subs:
[amprotect=nonmember]
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

The spoos however are lining up for a possible snap back as they are trading outside of both daily Bollingers. Now, in order to better time your long positions I propose two setups: One is to wait for an inside candle tomorrow (if it comes) or perhaps some type of variation buy setup á la Convict Scott. Two is to watch that hourly panel and to go long once the spoos breach their current NLBL at 1272.25 a push above 1280 would be confirmation IMNSHO. Of course those levels keep changing and I’ll probably update the chart here in the comment section later tonight.

AUD/JPY – very much related to the action in equities. Similar deal here – less extended on the daily Bollinger side.

Cheers,

Mole

[/amprotect]


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • bshah

    holy fu… is this now panic mode.. and  there is no PPT ?
    damn i love this.. though on the long side and getting fu..ed, i love it… it’s been a while since we have witnessed all RED on the screen..

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Game is changing – The Bernank needs someone to buy treasuries. The banks did their part (with tax payer cash) and now everyone else gets herded into buying from Uncle Sam.

  • Anonymous

    Wow.  75,000 Contracts Changed hands on the 3:25 Five Minute Candle on ES while the ES made a new Low on the Day.   HMMMMMM? 

  • Anonymous

    Market definately has the jitters.

  • Anonymous

    Market definately has the jitters.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Some asked about silver in the previous threat:

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Some asked about silver in the previous threat:

  • Anonymous

    SPX 1258.07, if taken out it may be over.

  • Anonymous

    SPX 1258.07, if taken out it may be over.

  • Anonymous

    Yes Sir.

    And if nobody buys Treasuries It’s Game Over.  So Stock Market is unimportant in the Big Game.  And Joe 2 Pack’s 401K is simply Cannon Fodder as he gets fucked again.  

  • Anonymous

    Yes Sir.

    And if nobody buys Treasuries It’s Game Over.  So Stock Market is unimportant in the Big Game.  And Joe 2 Pack’s 401K is simply Cannon Fodder as he gets fucked again.  

  • Anonymous

    just paid for my next vaca
    😉

  • Anonymous

    just paid for my next vaca
    😉

  • Anonymous

    nice positive div on ZL (es)

  • Anonymous

    nice positive div on ZL (es)

  • bshah

    i think Timmy and Benny had a fight with someone in GS… and  GS says, “u mess with me…” , here u go..

  • Anonymous

    no VIX buy signal and that’s very bad medicine for the longs.

    Dose this mean bad medicine for the shorts on Spx? Sorry for the dum question

  • Anonymous

    So it looks like we’re not getting the VIX buy signal today, but I would think we would definitely get some snap back from this panic selling today, right?  If things close as is, we will close below the 20,2 and the 100,2 lower BBs.

  • bshah

    And so.. we are officially bankrupt country in Depression..

  • Anonymous

    what else is new?

  • Anonymous

    I have to admit to having a little satisfaction today even though I only have only a relatively small short position.  So I’ll allow myself 1 Attaboy.

    Attaboy!Of course this couldn’t happen back when I was chasing P3 and had 30 to 50 SPY Put Contracts.   Noooooooooooooo.     🙂

  • Anonymous

    1261 pivot is not holding. Next stop 1240.

  • volar

    Lower low and lower high on ES active.

    Bull market rules= Over for Volar if we close here on a weekly basis….

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    breakdown Bitchez.

    http://oi53.tinypic.com/2mjz9v.jpg

    you remember the fans, right!?

  • Anonymous

    Picked up some TNA calls, just in case.  The contrarian in me needs to be satisfied 😉
    http://www.avafin.com/articles/1003959.html

  • Anonymous

    Just closed out 1/2 of my SPY Short and am now back to Neutral.  

  • bshah

    good luck all.. i can’t retire anymore … so getting back to work..

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    WTF happened?

  • Anonymous

    Mole, assuming you go long spoos on the NLBL where would you place your stop? U got any rule? Thanks buddy

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Never ever jump to conclusions. A VIX buy signal increases the odds that a snap back will happen within a week. However, it does not preclude a snapback to happen either.

    Easy to fall into traps as a trader – always keep a neutral perspective.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No – it means bad medicine for the SPX longs – sorry, should have made that more clear. I thought it was obvious.

    Not sure where to start about mistyping ‘dumb’ – I mean – talking about a setup! 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Lather, rinse, repeat – the game remains the same.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    +300

    I was dying to call out a -300 DOW, just didn’t quite get there.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Never make calls – the one time one is right does not offset all the times one is wrong.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok ok.

    (GG slinks off ..)

  • Anonymous

    Man, talking about volatility. Mole added 3+ new posts in one day. Can’t read that fast. Is that some kinda inductors?

    Poor Obama, all the arm wrestling for nuthang…

  • Anonymous

    Well, I have been working, too poor to trade … 🙁

  • nyse

    So this a buy then? Im sorry; does it need to close above the the line to be a buy or what? Thanks (where can I learn more about this? I went to that guy’s site but not too much on there). Still looking for that literature you were gonna post 😉 
    (no pressure; you do a lot)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Daily Zero updated! Boy oh boy….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NYSE D/A: 3.71:1

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Mole I really don’t want to waste your time, but I am missing a point here: if we get a buy signal on vix, I assume odds are in favour of a pick up in volatility, hence this should be negative risk and spx. Is this not correct?
    Reading above I thought if we don’t get a buy signal in vix this could increase odds of a pull back in vol and favour longs on spx.. I don’t want to sound dumb ..maybe I’ve been working too much today ; )

  • Anonymous

    Close 1/2 short too. Left some lottery tickets on the table for the range day that should come up eventually.

  • Anonymous

    We live in interesting times, but is it time to buy the market yet?
    (Im out of markets still, as capital used elsewhere – perhaps the best thing for me)

    Hope your all making coin!

  • Anonymous

    Well there’s a name from the past.  

    Good to hear from you!    🙂

  • Anonymous

    Thanks BobbyLow

    I needed to use my trading capital elsewhere (pay off property)
    I was taking too much risk (as CS did point out) so a break was the right thing. Its easy to become ‘addicted’ to markets/trading and lose money!

    I will try again c/o trading, but probably in a years time!

  • Anonymous

    Thanks BobbyLow

    I needed to use my trading capital elsewhere (pay off property)
    I was taking too much risk (as CS did point out) so a break was the right thing. Its easy to become ‘addicted’ to markets/trading and lose money!

    I will try again c/o trading, but probably in a years time!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hope you’re doing well mate – would you know it, tomorrow will be the 3rd year anniversary of ES!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hope you’re doing well mate – would you know it, tomorrow will be the 3rd year anniversary of ES!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Obama – don’t get me started. I have never seen a brother who’s that bad of a negotiator – jeezzz…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Obama – don’t get me started. I have never seen a brother who’s that bad of a negotiator – jeezzz…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m just making sure we all remain humble and vigilant. ‘Tis dangerous tape.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m just making sure we all remain humble and vigilant. ‘Tis dangerous tape.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s called a VIX buy signal in reference to the SPX mate….

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s called a VIX buy signal in reference to the SPX mate….

  • volar

    Glad to see you mate!

  • volar

    Glad to see you mate!

  • Anonymous

    Haaaa… Got it that makes sense.. Tku buddy

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Mole! Likewise also.
    I see the regulars are all still here

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Mole 3+ post and he too has many comments here. Must be a very interesting time for him.
    I also see his note on Daily Zero…would it bounce here?

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Volar 🙂
     

  • Anonymous

    Only three years? Seems I’ve been here forever. This has to be the best site for banking coin, bar none.

    I haven’t been able to focus much on trading lately, as I’m still rebuilding my house. Trying to trade from a hotel room sucks, but I’ve been able to check in and keep an eye on things. Daily Zero looking interesting indeed…

    Good to see you’re still around Amokta. A good choice to conserve one’s capital.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks CB.
    Anyway, an interesting time for those actively trading – opportunity to bank coin c/o zero no doubt!

  • Anonymous

    So what the hell does this mean for SPX and Precious Metals? Now that Chairsatan has his blank check and the Bankers have their steady IV drip of fiat-methodone, is the Equity market signalling a melt down? Are the Central Planners now trying to force everyone into Treasuries or is this just a headfake? 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Absolutely.

    now this is the part where you smack us all around and tell us what the sheep don’t see, and you do!
    Ten-hut!

  • volar

    FWIW guys NOTHING is extreme yet in the P/C ratios. the VIX/VXV is it

    so not buying the dip here : )

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what!?
    phoeey. kick you to the curb.
    😉

    oh Scott! where is Scott?

  • Anonymous

    Welcome back

  • Anonymous

    Thanks CS 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Anyone? No one? not looking to pick a fight, just want some ideas grounded in reasonable perspectives.

  • Anonymous

    Guys, refer to my weekend post where I said that the market should be falling like a stone by Wed or there is something badly wrong with the bearish script.

    Well we have markets falling. What that tells us is that the bearish script is playing out. Dont get long until you see *capitulation* to the downside. Not for a while.

    Also for those that hang on news. Debt ceiling passed… markets go down. Dont follow news

  • Anonymous

    hey, what did Evil mean by “some type of variation buy setup á la Convict Scott.” What would you be looking for tomorrow?

  • Anonymous

    I new to this sight, so please don’t get annoyed with me asking alot of questions. But what is your definition of *Capitulation*? what are you looking at for such an event to take place? 

  • Anonymous

    *am

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    okay, without any emotion….here it is.
    RISK still off.

    not a holy grail, but I’ve elevated it to 1st rank of the highest dominion signal in my toolbox.

    something maybe Mole can integrate into the competition of his algos.
    (hopefully he’s still working it)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84652413203

  • Anonymous

    Plebe…. market movements generate emotion. Because virtually all traders lose, they lose because they think the same way. At the time the crowd feels most bearish, thats the time to buy. And vice versa. Emotion is to be *faded*

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Shit -the one on the right looks like my ex!

  • Anonymous

    I’m right here. Your risk/on/off idea tells it correctly.

    IMO when you have price telling you something AND risk metrics telling you the same thing AND volars sentiment not at extremes…. you can have more confidence in a position. 

  • Anonymous

    Hey Scott,

    The only way news mattered to me this past week was that I didn’t want to be on the wrong side of a trade that had some kind of  knee jerk reaction to the DC Extension passing or not passing or whatever.   I got jerked around during the 2008 Tarp Fiasco, so I chose to be pretty much neutral until this battle was over.    

    Like I said earlier, yesterday’s Gap and Crap was a tell.  It allowed me to get net short again of which I closed out 1/2 today.  

    It was a relatively small position but a good one nonetheless.  

    I find myself still fighting emotion.  WTF, I’m an emotional dude,  always have been and probably always will be.  LOL   

    However, one thing that I have been doing differently is that I’ve been trying to work your suggestion of concentrating on trading correctly instead of just trying to make money.  I can feel an improvement in my emotional levels doing it this way so maybe there’s hope after all.     🙂

  • Anonymous

    understood. Thank You. But i just cant help but think that now that a QE3 is on the table, the Banks are going to pull the carpet from underneath all of the Longs, as now they can give two shits about the market climbing to newer highs. They have their new liquidity program and everyone and their mother will be going long in expectation of daily FED Easing. Maybe my mindset is confirmation that you are correct, but something does not sit right about this drop. Again, i am thinking Qualitatively not Quantitatively here so my observation is more gut than anything else. 

  • Anonymous

    Any grails are better than no grails. Gerb my email address is bob.c.shea@gmail.com, i am relatively new to this but learning as much as i can as quickly as i can. I know the curve is steep right now to be doing this and appreciate any help i can get. Please shoot me an email if you have the time with any other technical formations i should be watching for. Also, i would appreciate any and all of you on this board to do the same. I dont have many “laurels” to brag about when it comes to a trading system, but i am more than willing to learn, and appreciate any help or trading wisdom anyone is willing to part with and share. 

  • Anonymous

    RBW, are you out there? Are you still legging your options?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    A trend change takes time – there will be violent snapbacks, just like in 2008. Just look at September 19, 2008 to give you an idea of how nasty those swings can be. Not sure what type of trader you are – but unless you are on the very long term side expect some swings, even if this turns out to be a trend changer.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    /sight/site/g

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And our asshat of the day is….. Mark Zandi!

    http://i.bnet.com/blogs/mark_zandi.jpg

  • Anonymous

    what does “/sight/site/g” mean?

  • Anonymous

    I hear you. These things are processes not straight lines. I am trying to be whatever type of trader that works in this new age environment. I tend to take the view that i will consistently need to be evolving to meet whatever the markets throws our way. And i am relatively new to this so your guidance has been more than insightful for the past few months. I do have the habit of moving towards the Macro end of things more than anything else, which is why i gravitated towards your sight once i found it. Thanks for the reply by the way 

  • Anonymous

    Equity markets are coming to grips with fundamentals which does happen once in a blue moon. If no more liquidity is forthcoming from the Fed the markets will crater. As for gold lets get to 8000+ an ounce first then we will talk about further upside. Or some sort of Bretton Woods like agreement before gold can top. Use any pullback to buy more.

  • Anonymous

    U just found out? 45 million on food stamps and 17+% real unemployment rate didnt sound bad enough?

  • Anonymous

    not really sure how much my opinion is worth, but i agree. The overseas markets are getting slammed as we speak so i think we will see shortly whether we are right about this being a short term game changer. 

  • Anonymous

    Took short positions in /6S and believe it or not /GC. Small positions/stops in. Wow! serious profit taking on FEED.

  • Anonymous

    Emini watch’s Barry has a good wrap up vid today. 

  • Anonymous

    this might be a stupid question but what is 6S and GC mean? and holy shit yeah your taking profits on FEED

  • Anonymous

    It will help us help you if you try a web search prior to posting your question. Given the wealth of information available on the web, you can help yourself a lot. That said, /6S is the symbol for Swiss Franc Futures, and /GC is the symbol for Gold Futures.

    If nothing else, open a paper trading account at ThinkorSwim (it’s free) and you can simply type in an unfamiliar symbol and get an answer immediately, like I did with /6S.

  • Zero % forever

    scott
    your $SPX /ES down call nailed it .

  • Zero % forever

    your chart

  • Anonymous

    Good day all!

    Exciting times to be back!!!! and to bank coins! This market may have just got exciting enough to get me out of my rat cave…. And of course since I never read news during the trading day, I have sidestepped elegantly all the stupid recent debt drama. 

    I haven’t posted in ages, mainly because they found a way at work to block any disqus login, ensuring no comments can be posted on any blog from work… and ES will load only half of the time right with disquus hanging and…. of course we are stuck on IE6.0…. which helps nothing.

    Fortunately, the zero page tends to load OK, so Mole I can still get that so valuable indicator 🙂 it’s the gift that keeps on giving….p.S. While I was away, I guess the ZeroFX died. I tried to find out why in the old posts, but couldn’t?

    Hence I was limited to reading, and by not posting, I lost the momentum. Reading at night does not have the same flavor.
    I admire all the rats still around, and although I have been mostly silent and a few weeks on vacations, time to come back!

    Mole, Convict and Volar, I can say you make a superb team for the members! Objective as always and on the money. I think the comments of the last few days have been spot on. A sincere thank you from a very happy rat!

    Just a few charts….Point and Figure first of course!

    i) SPX:vix on P&F: down of course, somewhat on support but unreliable from that standpoint. If there is a squeeze, a significant trigger on this chart would be any X column above 5500. As you can see, movements tend to last for many boxes once out of congestion zones. It is too early to tell if we are in one, but once it crosses up, it heightens the probability of the upmove squeeze, at least to the vincinity of the lower BB.
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$SPX:$VIX,PLTBDANRBO%5BPA!E20,2.618!B13%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20][J208924110,Y]&listNum=8

    ii) 1260 is P&F immediate support for SPX, and there is further support on 1250 Below that, very little support for the market, but it ain,t broken until it is broken. So for now, it’s the potential support zones that need monitoring, not any false hope of what one could hope the market does, but what it s actually doing. 
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PATBWANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD20110802%5D%5BF1!1!!!2!14]&pref=G

    iii) THE chart I will be watching for a bounce that is worth playing: a cross up of the EMA 3 days on NASI. Until then I am sitting on my hands, neutral. I have closed positions too early in the last two days, but I stuck with my indicators. From what I saw on my charts, it was impossible to tell the downfall would be so quick in a “trend day” fashion where the zero should have been ignored. 
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NASI&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=10&id=p92043935148&a=212291072

    Remember that in downtrends, it’s a very dangerous time for bears as well if entries are not properly timed as snapbacks are and will be violent, yet their longevity is impossible to determine upfront. 

    Current trading stance for tomorrow: cash looking to play my indicators on a bounce. I will have difficulty from what I see on my indicators to short anything even if it continues going down, as all the triggers were much higher and this would equate chasing the downfall away from any potential original trigger, hence waiting for a right squeeze entry.

    What is good about a violent move as such is that there will be extremes snapbacks.

    Recommendation: when playing the bounces, keep very simple fast indicators as exits. Whether it is adaptive stops that trend with the index objective parameters such as SAR. It may get you out quicker than you would of wanted with hindsight on the lenght or the strenght of the snapback, but it will keep you safe and objective from your own bias. I never accumulate additional shorts on a snapback for I learned the hard way I can never tell how long or strong it will be, so I play the move fro what it is, i.e. only the direction of the move and only aim for quick entries and out, typically on SAR on the 15-30 minutes chart max.  

    AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST:

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO ES and CONGRATULATION TO MOLE for having created one of the greatest website!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Note to Mole: I am just back online since a few days ago and saw in my email your request for comments on the rating site I can’t remember the name now. I will do shortly, you will have my positive comments!

    LONG LIVE PROPER AND INDEPENDENT FROM NEWS DISTRACTIONS THE VERY EXCELLENT ES.COM AND ALL ITS VERY QUALIFIED COLLABORATORS;-)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “While I was away, I guess the ZeroFX died. I tried to find out why in the old posts, but couldn’t?”

    Hey mate – I remember you – welcome back. Regarding ZeroFX – I turned it off as nobody wanted to pay for it – LOL 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Somehow you messed up those links – not sure why…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My advice – watch for a few months. Then start trading a small account – which you will probably wind up blowing up. Then you watch again for a few months until you get a feel for the tape. Most folks get wiped out within the first two years – you don’t want to become a statistic. It’s a learning process and it takes its time.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, most of trading is psychology – overcoming yourself. I’m sure you read Sun Tsu – you’ll find more useful in there than in any trading book.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s a regular expression – regex. Never mind – LOL 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I promised everyone an updated spoos chart. Not looking so hot. All the net-lines on the buy side have expired. It’s rounding out overnight like yesterday but if we drop through the 1245.25 Net-Lines sell level things may get ugly quick.

  • Anonymous

    /HG has recovered some.

  • Anonymous

    thank you the hand holding. i will do that. 

  • Anonymous

    So, if Mole were to integrate, are you saying that he would be looking at $BPSPX on a minute-by-minute basis (like the other HS algos are (presumably) running)? And would the exit criteria be the same target and stop as the other algos?

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Went long EURCAD @ 1.3680 on a 4H quadruple inside bar breakout lol

  • raised_by_wolves

    I’m in transit between TOS and OH so missed the opportunity to leg into puts on SPY and calls on GLD. Do you have a couple risk-free trades on?

  • raised_by_wolves

    I’m in transit between TOS and OH so missed the opportunity to leg into puts on SPY and calls on GLD. Do you have a couple risk-free trades on?

  • Anonymous

    Well, I’ve got a few tlt calendar spreads on right now that are part of some evil multi security hedge thing I’ve got going. I’ve got enough of these spreads in play that I figure my hedge won’t mind if a take a few off the table since they are performing “ahead of schedule”. 
    Normally, I’d just let them ride until right near expy, but I thought – what would RBW do? 
    I intend to project a price range curve going forward that I somehow convince myself is ‘normal’. At the point where the calendar prices make it back into the ‘normal’ range, I buy back in.
    Does make sense? And that’s not legging into the calendar spread- just legging out and back into the portfolio. Do you have any advice on the mechanics of legging into the spread itself? For example, do you have some kind of triggers and targets for when to do this, or do you just wing it?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Starting with ITM SPY puts and GLD calls with the goal of creating a three-dimensional condor, I have been setting my sell OTM options limit to 1.1x the price of the what I paid for the ITM options. That assumes one has signals on each symbol. If you only have a signal for one but want to play both, then try legging into the one you have a signal for in this manner and then just pay the market price for the other. If you’re sufficiently wrong about the trade before you have the opportunity to leg in, just get the hell out and wait for another signal to attempt again. If that doesn’t pan out for you, reevaluate your robot life while holding an EMP to your head.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Hehe!

  • Anonymous

    Copper down over 1% now.

  • Anonymous

    Now 1.5%.

  • Anonymous

    would you say that the copper level is around some kind of support? (in July, anyway)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no. BPSPX is more of an end of day indicator.  so Mole could cook up a algo that used the previous day as a weighted indicator, in a handful of other indicators, and may the best algo win.
    🙂

  • Anonymous

    Or, maybe as a filter – like one might use the 200D MA? Does one use the direction, the level, both? Would the measurements be relative to some historical range or absolute?

  • Anonymous

    Mole – Since I don’t understand workings and intracacies of the ZL, but yesterday’s swings were wild, and there were two swings, on a trend day down, into +2 territory without much upside price movement. Obviously, most of the heavy ZL values were negative.  BUT, why wouldn’t the ZL remain negative all day? I just still trying to get a “FEEL” for the Zero.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GLD 162.62

  • bshah

    WOW

  • Anonymous

    Looks like we took out the 1245.25 level that Mole mentioned….here comes the ugly.  How long can things remain oversold?  It seems really strange that we have so many consecutive days in one direction.  I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.  I would think at some point we would have a retest of the 200 SMA.

  • Anonymous

    Pick up some more calls on the cheap. See what happens.

  • Anonymous

    1240 support breached like hot knife thru butter. What’s holding below? 1220?

  • Anonymous

    “How long can things remain oversold?”

    We asked the same question in reverse when the market was overbought.  
    I certainly do not have the answer other than I believe that some Fear has kicked in and might rule until Greed comes back into play.   

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Went short AUDUSD on the break of 1.0745, 4H RVS. Original stop at 1.0790 stop now at B/E.

  • Anonymous

    Feed @ 1.16

  • Anonymous

    Europe getting hammered!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, DOW 11783
    big tail on the hourly candle

    looks like 11750 was defended, as I charted yesterday.
    -GG

  • bshah

    Do we touch 1250 today ?

  • Anonymous

    Agree, looks to have found support.

  • bshah

    what amazes me is the pace it went down.. Just stunning.. in almost 45 min, we had seen nightmares.. I was seeing galaxy in broad day light..  

  • Anonymous

    I’ve noticed that you’ve mentioned the dow a few times…is there a reason why you chart on a price weighted index?  What is the benefit to that?  Does it work better with the fans?

  • Anonymous

    are we calling a divergence here on the ZL?

  • Schwerepunkt

    OK, VWAP has seemingly stopped the 18-pt rally off the bottom. Anyone have conviction where this is going from here? How’s the VIX buy signal. A little busy in the garden and I missed this entire move from 1230.25 ES.

  • Anonymous

    SPX histogram extreme with long bottom tail, not a sub yet although should be:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Convictions do not matter in trading. As per the VIX …. sigh…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    VWAP needs to be overcome first – until that happens it’s a seller’s market.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Closed @ R2

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly – btw, greed is simply inverse fear.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Still riding the beast! But i might close soon since i got my R2 and we`re near 50% fib retrace.

  • Anonymous

    I guess I really don’t care if I make money on theta earn or intrinsic value change.

    EMP it is!   Put on your foil hats, this could get messy… I’m going to “flatline” my entire set of tlt calendars like it’s September… and then I’ll “reboot” at entirely different strikes.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    im greedy 😐

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Down tape is always a bit volatile – short sellers also buy back on the way down. What counts is that the signal did not remain above the mark and immediately fell back.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, it got us to VWAP – a push above is needed for buyers to gain a foothold.

  • Anonymous

    LOL!

  • Schwerepunkt

    On the daily chart, VIX nearly pierced the lower BB again. The close will be interesting.

  • Anonymous

    Volar,
    Based on 11 years of EOD data, the ratio of (front contract) Oats to (front contract) Corn is higher than it is now 96% of the time and if it does go lower, it has only ever gone lower than it is now for one month before returning to this level. Do you know if those stats hold up going back longer periods of time?

  • Anonymous

    A picture for some clarity… http://screencast.com/t/4TqYOFgxg3

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I officially give up.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Sorry guys, I misread my own charts. Was looking at something else. Sheesh. I’m actually doing too many things at the same time. Not good at multitasking.

  • volar

    been doing alot of the same analysis as of late. Tried Oats and wheat. The problem is oats is domestic and wheat is foreign so the best ratio is SOY/CORN.

    BUT I do like the idea of oat/corn.

    I think i will go run JULY corn to JULY Oats 🙂

    Now oats do not influence corn, but i am sure corn must influence oats…

    be back in a minute.. BTW long that Bean/corn spread as of this am again 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Yeah, I’ve got the BC ratio stuck to the bottom of my screen.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    EURJPY 1H retest variation buy on a break of 110.20

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    And 4H sell on the break of 109.50

  • Anonymous

    Damn, hope the “Bear Bus” slows down! Been playin’ it like it was a local and it turns out it’s an express heading south! Just don’t wanna get on (in any size) cause it may be reaching the end of the line. How long can it stay out side the BBs?

    I am more a revert to mean kinda guy and it is really hard (for me) to chase, just give me the 20 sma or a couple of up days and I will probably get on. Anyway, if this is the turn or the top is in the rear view mirror, I comfort myself with the idea that there will be very violent snap backs even in the context of a Bear market. 

    Perhaps Trading Mom can distract the driver while Mole gives him a karate chop to the head. That oughta slow the bus down some!

  • omelette

    rtvb setup on the hourly on a break of 1244.25. Which would also be a break of what appears to be a triangle that is forming and also a break above vwap. conservative approach would be to wait for the break and then retest of vwap from above and a positive zero signal. Stop @ 1236.5.

  • Anonymous

    SPX or ES ?

  • omelette

    es

  • Anonymous

    Was about to say the same, seeing a nice trianle developing on the 15min chart.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    in a downdraft market, the DOW is a defensive index.  
    IMHO it carries more significance, than when RISK is on.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (GG chuckles)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    stockcharts updates $GOLD end of day, so I work around it.

    [SPX/GLD]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:GLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=7&dy=0&id=p31869916568

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    interesting,
    I wasn’t sure if you were a farmer, dietitian, or commodities broker for a minute.

    http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/files/original/quaker.jpg

  • volar

    testing lows using active futures contracts

  • omelette

     hello 1r. move stop to breakeven, or get out if you’re happy. Zero isn’t supporting the move yet.

  • volar

    1296 TICK DTN

    unless we are jumping the bridge…..

  • Anonymous

    Took the rest of my SPY short off and now have a small positive Delta.  At least for right now.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    EURCHF 1H rtvs on the break of 1.0963

  • Anonymous

    Had kind of a nightmarish situation this morning.  

    I think most of us get accustomed to using various charts and indicators that we come to rely on.  I’ve been using streaming quotes from the TDAMTD Command Center because I liked the color scheme and the ease of use.  I also have been using the TDAMTD Strategy Desk for my 15 Minute Charts on the SPX among others.  And I’ve been using the TOS 5 Minute Charts for ES, GC and SI among others.

    Well this morning when the SPX went down hard, I was watching my Strategy Desk SPX Chart and my Command Center for streaming quotes.  What I didn’t realize was that the data was corrupted.  By the time I realized that the data was bad, the SPX had already turned and I missed the turn by about 5 Points or so.  

    Needless to say, I was one pissed off camper.  So I called to complain and they comped me 50 Trades but this is not the first time it has happened on the Command Center but it was the first time it happened on the Strategy Desk when both were screwed up at the same time.

    The TOS Platform is a lot more stable so I will run everything from it from now on.  

    I’m also waiting for a review from RBW, on OH as I have that platform already locked and loaded and all I have to do is fund it.  

    There is absolutely no excuse for bad data on a trading platform.  

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy have I learned that the hard way. I am constantly battling data problems – even with the most prestige providers. One bad tick can affect Geronimo or Helter.Scalper and you guys have no idea the amount of time I have put into guaranteeing good data. As the old saying goes – crap in, crap out.

  • Anonymous

    Note to self: Don’t try legging into put side of the slv spread before it drops 8%.

    Note to self: 
    1. The simplest and easy way to get good performance from your EMP Grenade is to read the instructions on the grenade and follow them.
    2. Grasp the grenade firmly and hold it near to your head.
    3. Put your fingers in the ring and pull the ring smoothly but firmly at ninety degrees from the grenade. It may spark.4. Stay Frosty.

    You know there is a trickle down effect from this EMP, right? http://americankafir.files.wordpress.com/2011/02/emp-cascade-effects.jpg