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Not So Fast!
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Not So Fast!

by The MoleJune 9, 2009

2:46pm EDT: The Dollar got stopped in its tracks today and although nothing is confirmed just yet the following scenario is starting to gain in probability:

If we drop through 78.3 then 77 is almost guaranteed. Of course this would give an additional ‘bullish bias’ to equities as well as commodities – I’m using that term instead of ‘boost’ since any remaining correlations seem to be breaking apart lately.

If we are lucky then this is nothing but a small degree correction which will be followed by more upside. We should know by Thursday at the latest.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • fuw

    What timeframe? The 5min stoch might be turning up.

  • amgrant

    Re post!

    The big boys better be distributing here, or else I will have an all out orgy selling short all the stock they're trying to exit on the way down.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    IMO 1.4100 on EUR/USD should support dollar. But clearly the momentum on the chart you show Mole is to the downside… Equities are not so well correlated with the dollar anymore.. The commodities continue to melt up though.

  • lilme

    RE: SQNM (re-posted from last entry)

    Option help request please:

    Drug stock up 30% today. Interesting history, but dropped from $14 to $3 at beginning of May…..I suspect that it will go up A LOT. So I think I should buy options, but I am not sure the amount of the option or the date. For example, there are big blocks of calls bought into 2011.

    So does anyone have a method to buy calls on this sucker –

    I am a novice with options – among other things.

    Thanks in Advance.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Big candle coming – my vote is for green

  • v8muscle

    we need to hold 943. its the bottom of the /es channel

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Supply being eaten at all levels.. I am moving my sell short order for NQ from 1513 to 1510…

  • lester

    I have been watching ES futures since Prophet is down. Does ES only move in 0.25 increments?

  • amgrant

    Here comes a repeat of yesterday afternoon……..giddee up

  • alphahorn

    i fear it's right and this ridiculous rally continues until the POS $ bottoms

  • amgrant

    WANTED: NEW BUYERS

  • Autopsias

    Yeap, that's how it works.

  • v8muscle

    look for big volume and open interests and buy those. thats where the big money is. also, buy liquid options if you need to exit. I made that mistake last fall and cost me 2k

  • molecool

    It's not a democracy – you know – well, in a way it actually is – but not anymore – you know what – never mind…

    😉

  • v8muscle

    the buy side is pretty light on the order book right now, that concerns me

  • rhae

    Will the big trading desks jam the close today? Maybe not… even tho volume is light again… but price kinda flat… I do not see much need for the Calvalry to ride to the rescue… unless they just want to ride over some dead bears?

  • Squidman

    It should, big time!

  • amgrant

    I'm sure they'll find some shorts to cover. No f'n way I am shorting this. r/r not there.

  • kinihepu

    If the bears don't show up here, they get what they deserve.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Hey lilme,

    Here is the CBOE Learning Center url : http://cboe.com/LearnCenter/default.aspx

    Don't use options until you are able to define: puts, calls, premium, strike price, time value, volatiilty, naked, contract size, derivative, expiration date, exercise, assignment, write. Further, you need to understand the difference between sell-to-close and sell-to-open / buy-to-open and buy-to-close. The ramifications are significant to the ignorant. There's a lot you need to assimilate lest you hurt yourself. Take the time to gain some education as these can be akin to having a loaded firearm…..

  • amgrant

    Let me rephrase that…

    WANTED (FOR PART TIME WORK): NEW BUYERS

  • lilme

    Thanks V8muscle – I will take a chance, I think this is a good opportunity, if you want to read more on this stock.

    Much appreciation coming to you. Thanks

  • amgrant

    Play this in the background….

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lljBSQdlvY

  • lilme

    Good idea, I will cram…I appreciate your words of caution…I can buy into 2011 so I have time…..

    thanks.

  • springheel_jack

    Well, at the risk of being wrong again, I'm calling a top for the day at 947. I don't think we'll close above 950 today.

    That may be wishful thinking as I'm watching the $TRANS and I don't want a close above 3404.11 to confirm, however late & weakly, the recent new highs in the Dow. 3385 as I write.

  • v8muscle

    we really need $TICK to turn around, its looking sickly.

  • lester

    closed my ES long. I should know better than to trade long (or short).

  • Lordted

    Hi Lester.. If you want something smaller you can always look at YM – DOW Futures. price increments of 1pt at a time – 70YM pts rougthly = 9 ES pts.

    1 YM pt = $5.

    Very simular wave structure as the 2 indexes are more or less welded to each other.. BUT if you do make sure you track DOW as can move slightly differently at times though in same direction.. Anyway have a look

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Zero Hedge notes a new twist in the amusing sideshow known as Chrysler.

    One argument for pushing the bankruptcy plan thru so 'expeditiously' was that Fiat had a rapidly approaching 'walk-away' date of 6/15. Fiat's CEO is now quoted as saying they'll wait for as long as they need to. I guess the deal is so sweet he couldn't help himself…… The quote has been filed with the Supremes in support of delay.

    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/indiana-p

    It's not over until it's over

  • kinihepu

    Closed my Q puts. Call the Wildlife Protection!! There are no bears in them woods!

  • dingos

    RUTROH. Did GS forget to come back from lunch?

  • divergence

    Just notices that it was trading up next to that other fine equity, SAY. One fraud deserves another. I watch SQNM and saw the drop and the botched/fraudulent results and knew in my heart of hearts that one day we would see the huge rally up. Took a little longer than I expected. Have it on my watch list, but I am not gambling on this. Good for some more upside I suspect. Buy it, its priced almost like an option anyway.

  • ropey

    Easy way to avoid that is just play SPY,IWM and QQQQs only, can be very profitable and liquidity is way higher ( spreads are also nice esp on the SPY)..

  • mrclam

    thank god, the rally can resume now. 😉

  • molecool

    Jeeezzzz – Lester – please tell me you're not trading that one – LOL 🙂

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    breached to 941.75. We may have a red close

  • v8muscle

    Is a 10 point move in either direction too much to ask of the market these days? I mean seriously, this sucks

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Mole – I can figure out the state of your mind from the comment you just wrote up – it is melting away by staring at this tape.. Never knew that “tape gazing” can cause so much brain damage…

  • Iguanadon

    They left poor ol' Poindexter at the controls and he forgot to push the magic button. He still has time…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Hope everyone is short now, huh?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I dont touch ES – not for my stomach – NQ is all i am able to handle and that too requires walking away from the screen.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Get ready for a more than 10 point move on ES, lines on this IHS are drawn sloppy but you get the point.

    http://screencast.com/t/atLwv9yycD

  • lester

    Today is good example. Dow up much less than SPX

  • v8muscle

    Yep, I stick to index options now. Not making that mistake twice!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    He said “watching”

  • mrBIGgmd

    Anyone positioned for the 100 point rally in the next five minutes? LOL

  • molecool

    Guys – why are you trying to chase after a big move? Yes, there's a lot of air above – but this also makes it very difficult to hang yourself to a target. I'd be cautious…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Tech stocks holding up well here.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    overrulled

  • springheel_jack

    I'm telling you. The bulls are too exhausted to push higher & the remaining 4 bears are too scared of complete extinction to push lower.

    It might just be early closing on the GS desk though.

  • thelefteyeguy

    guess it's time to exit my shorts now 😀

  • lester

    YES

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I think Mole is as much annoyed by this tape as everyone else

  • annamall

    You know what guys, I have decided I put on a trade and then the hell with it, I am only trading what I can afford to lose, and after that I am either done or not. I take off any profits if they are good, and other than that I stopped my micromanaging of the trades. I do much better that way.
    It's hard to tell what those crazy freaks @ GS will do next. I refuse to let them get to me. 🙂

  • C C Rider

    If we get another doji, I think I'll puke!

  • v8muscle

    you thinking 940 then a pop?

  • springheel_jack

    I hope no-one is short just because I called the top at 947. My recent track record is almost 100% short of 100%.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    What is that trade – I am guessing long EQ ?

  • lester

    No I took a SPY Call near HOD. LOL I'm out now for $20 loss.

  • Lordted

    I trade YM mostly.. Get good scalps on it.. Don't go in for that options rocket science myself.. I'm a simple lad.

  • isaiah64v4

    Sorry Les… but mrclam that was a HOWL ..Gave you a + for that hilarious comment…

  • thelefteyeguy

    *readies protective clothing *

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Thanks amgrant!

    This particular Metallica is a little slow for me (at this time of day) but like the whole wolf thing…..

  • amgrant

    Oh come on bullsitos. I KNOW you have more than that.

  • springheel_jack

    USD pushing up & 1.41 holding on EURUSD. Most of the recent rise 141 to 147 has been clawed back.

    Bears not finished today.

    This could just be a head fake down though. Right time of day.

  • annamall

    Yep 🙂

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    looks like this down trend after hitting 947 is slowly tapering off. 942 seems to be the point of contention right now

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Fiat now retorts that the deal is cancelled on the 15th if not closed

  • lester

    you know I almost did not post this trade cuz I knew I would see posts like that…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I think ES still busts to the upside before EOD… It has been that way all along… Although I will add that Rev Shark (from Real Money) whom I respect a lot has been calling for a late day sell off now – he is very good at reading sentiment

  • OllyVaradi

    I rather suspect Moley kicks back listening to a bit of this and remeniscing of days gone by and jump suits worn out. Which one did you want to be Mole? Frank, Bernhard or Marian?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=GB&hl=en-GB&v=n

    FF to 2:42 for the full flavour of the clip

    Apologies if you modelled yourself more on the Kevin Keegan type 'do.

    🙂

  • v8muscle

    Positive $TICK divergence. We might pop hard into the last 30

  • gusrock1414

    Seriously Mole, can you limit the posts of Lester to 10 a day. This is getting stupid. I don't care to know about him trading ES futures or options on a measley account. Just hate going through 20 Lester comments to read the ones I like.

  • thunda72

    yeah… i dropped my HD puts and picked up some SPY calls for the close. Let 'er rip!

  • annamall

    OMG you're bad!!! heh heh heh

  • amgrant

    Like my rants??

  • thunda72

    Repost:

    lilme…. I'd pick up deep ITM calls. Jan2010 are going for 2.50 each. The deeper in the money, the higher delta you'll have, causing good price movement of the option along with the stock. It's basically a way of buying stock at half price. I read this book last year and it gives some good basic option strategies:

    Get Rich With Options: Four Winning Strategies Straight from the Exchange Floor (Agora Series) (Hardcover)
    by Lee Lowell (Author)

  • amgrant

    From one of the local Vancouver guys that saw this coming years ago….

    http://www.howestreet.com/audiovideo/index.php?…

    He's an expert on the Kondratieff Cycle.

  • springheel_jack

    The stochs are suggesting a push down into the close, but they've been wrong a lot lately.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    your frustration is shared by many

  • v8muscle

    huge buying on IWM. get long now

  • mrclam

    i couldn't help it, it was too easy 🙁 anyways, lester i'm assuming that you're reading this. the thing i don't understand is why you're still taking these wild swings that don't have much potential in them. to me, in your position, it seems much more sensible to say, buy at 920, sell at 960, etc. easy low risk high reward plays, and you don't have to sit there watching the screen all day. i feel really bad for you that you've lost so much capital, but the way you trade doesn't seem to help things one bit.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    sounds like Russian
    Russians are smart
    KGB Russians are even smarter
    I am Russian BTW
    KGB??? Me???

  • lester

    Sorry I will cut back. Just a little frustrated as I tried going long and it did not work (though looks like I should have held)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    we are not related, no?

  • annamall

    Did you guys know that you can so smaller than 1 minute ticks on a daily chart? I know some of you may know this, but some may not. 🙂

  • C C Rider

    You know the drill PPT saves the day(maybe). I want to see a close over 944. Fucking 4 points.

  • gusrock1414

    with all due respect lester, I don't give a fuck about your frustration and how your trade didn't work out.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    This move up might be a fake out – the action leading up to it suggests so – I am staying out though

  • lilme

    Mole, you are correct-o. This was a 'trade' that became an investment – I am certain that only I make those switches.

    I decided to lock in my profit and enter again – and read up on options….

    Your warnings on cautions are good work. I am trying very hard to learn – and your blog is excellent.

  • v8muscle

    big volume orders on both sides of the tape

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Yes 940.25 buys long, pretty tight stop below my 50% channel line as “protection”

  • annamall

    Where do you see the orders V8?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    People are used to a late day pop, therfore shark strategy would be to drop the market hard.

  • disrespekt

    We appear to have exhaustion on the buyside. But the tape is so thin and volume so light and program trading such a huge percentage now that any bear setting a short plus “tight stop” can get run out of his position.

    When GS decides to short, we'll go down.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Classy.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I see that in ToS software:

    Trade –> Active Trader

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    EUR/USD taking a dump and so is OIH

  • annamall

    I know MyLife I was just thinking that everyone expects the same thing to happen as yesterday, so the market likes to hurt the most number of people possible, so it probably won't happen. I am off to the sideline now too. Have small profit for day.

  • disrespekt

    This tape is so routinely dreadfully boring that Geronimo is the future for all of us.

    I can't keep my head in this godawful nonsense much longer. I have to go throttle my bike around curves in order to shake off the coma. We're daily at ZLI levels that'd have been “zero” due to the scale just a few weeks ago. You get one spike in the open direction then it flatlines.

    No volume on the moves up, none on the moves down, no participation, nothing.

    Mole, you have any historical data on this thing where you can take a look at the top last year in May? Maybe there is some intelligence that can be drawn from the recent market temperament.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    However, a little whipsaw, and even close (around where we are now), locking people into positions (no close out), and then some big overnight swings and a gap down or up….now that would hurt the max number of people….

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    I am glad I took all my longs off the table – half this morning and remaining half when we touched 946 on ES.. I have a small short position in OIH, FCX & CLF. I tried CME, but got stopped out. I am walking away for the last 10 minutes of the day.

  • v8muscle

    yeah, tell them to open up depth of market if you can only see 1 block on either side of the tick

  • BigIslandLife

    944.43 is the level per Kevin Depew for TD absolute up retracement 38.2 level a close above that and a open the next day with a interday move higher above today's close opens door to 1025 level . If you follow TD work

  • thunda72

    No one gives a fuck that you don't give a fuck.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Agree – I dont want to be too smart here – I have been there and lost my day's earning and more .. Small lottery plays on the short side of OIH, FCX & CLF is all I got.. other than that I am sitting out. Never sure if yesteday will repeat, or its opposite, or its opposites' opposite OR its opposite's opposite's opposite OR …. <loud shriek>

    ________________________________

  • annamall

    thank you sweetie!

  • Iguanadon

    And he wonders why nobody calls him any more to see if he wants to do anything…

  • springheel_jack

    !0, 15, 30 & 60 min.

  • colonel_bleep

    VIX at 28

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    It will be funny if we close unchanged or the day.. at least on ES. Commodities and tech will be up for the day regardless.. In 8 minutes, I dont see tech and commodities turning red.

  • springheel_jack

    Where's katzo? I called a top 40 minutes ago & haven't been proved wrong yet. He has to see this.

  • v8muscle

    wow, down 6%. VIX puts would have been money

  • springheel_jack

    If it reaches 25 again, I'm buying some calls.

  • Squidman

    I'll be joining you in the early hours again. I think that's what the bigger volume is about, more traders saying fuck this day action.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    Or create a spike, such in those who were left drooling yesterday AND then take a dump overnight..

    I think the markets have been like today's tape for most part. The extreme volatility spoiled every one last year..

    ________________________________

  • buyemsellem2000

    -20 + commission. Lester, if I were you I would go to the casino and find a $5 or $25 slot machine and say fuck it 1000+ or nothing. Really, this is not your game.

  • isaiah64v4

    LOL……..GREAT COMMENT ! Love it….

  • isaiah64v4

    Katzo

    We need a clean up on aisle 4 !

    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=8245&dsq=10664221#

  • TomOfTheNorth

    They're called Lyme ticks 'cause they're so small…..

  • isaiah64v4
  • v8muscle

    holy shit

  • lester

    don't you guys appreciate my contrarian calls? But seriously you are right about the casino.

  • katzo7

    Good job SHJ, I was elsewhere but cannot tell you where. LOL
    +1

  • isaiah64v4

    URGH ..can't get the right link

    I mean this guy

    gusrock1414

  • Squidman

    I give to muckin fuch, I can tell you that.

  • thelefteyeguy

    USD took a pretty huge dump…but instead the market stays pretty much flat…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    when TOS bell sounded I woke up and was about to start trading day…

  • v8muscle

    Transports look like theyre ready to break higher btw.

  • annamall

    LMOL I could't have said that better myself! or shrieked better myself (well maybe a little since my voice is higher)
    Glad i sat that out.
    I saw the volume and it looks hard to keep up with. it bounces all over the place.

  • dullmind

    I have a question for StainlessSteelChicken. Has the Chicken Oscillator blue line gone above the white line yet? Still
    in FAZ, been swinging from green to red and back, today's first day more red than green. Too late to bail today,
    perhaps tomorrow?

  • annamall

    LMOL…:-D

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I was almost awake until market open….and then took a “nap”. Thats a tough gig.

  • thunda72

    Don't pay attention to them Les… Just concentrate on learning market psychology, which is your weak point, IMO. Mine too, for that matter! Good luck.

  • 1981er

    I personally don't like using SPY calls as a sub for trading the /ES. You need to go high delta and the spreads can be fairly wide.

    No substitute for the real thing IMO, especially for day trading.

  • annamall

    What do you mean V8 tell who TOS?

  • springheel_jack

    The bad news is that the last 80 minutes was all downhill. The test of 950 never really got going & we closed looking downwards with yet another indecisive candle. $TRANS failed to confirm the Dow high at the beginning of last week & the daily, 60, 30, 15 & 10 min stochs are all topped out or pointing down.

    Go the bears!

  • katzo7

    Jeez,
    give me a fuckin' break here. LOL I am working my ass off.
    I am a monitor on TKs site, doing IM and emails, cleaning up cat puke, and have to cook dinner! Did we get married at some poin Issyt? Also, I have to keep Blind S. in abeyance. That is a job in itself.
    OK Issy, you are an honorable katzo from now on.
    Job responsibilities
    !. watch market
    2. call tops even if they are not there (you and SHJ have to fight over this one)
    3. find some dirty pics to post
    4. look for MOVIOs
    5. well, this list goes on

  • springheel_jack

    If USD has a bad day tomorrow, $TRANS should break higher & finally confirm the high in the Dow, albeit weakly & late.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    A couple of mentions in the news today of union contract disputes :

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009

    We apparently no longer need to fear fear itself……

  • katzo7

    Double dojis, divergences all over, EW5s.

  • springheel_jack

    Looking dowwwn in the aftermarket.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    That was a nice push down after hours. I cashed out my ES short for a miniscule gain but a gain nonetheless. Closing out my IB, my brain is burned out. Goodnight all.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/iQPYpFvpr

    Executed the plan afterhours.

  • milingz

    Mole – does the action in the USD change your outlook for Silver?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    our day is tomorrow…is it? 🙂

  • TomOfTheNorth

    You're still here? Shouldn't you be prepping for another glamorous evening on the town????

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onJud5Jb5nQ

  • dullmind

    Not sure I would trade you as contrarian, but educational (if a little painful) to watch. The only success I have with
    options is selling them as Motley Fool Pro taught me, my few recent buys are down over 50%, one is down 100%,
    only saving grace is they are really small plays, and all have 100 plus days to possibly work in my favor. I am
    fairly certain that what I have played worked because as a seller theta burn works in my favor. I agree with
    others however, you need to learn (and I need to get better at) sitting back and waiting, some days there
    just are no trades.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    What I wonder about is this – how the fuck is he able to trade an ES contract with $250 capital?

    Did you visit your local pawn shop lately, Lester? Seriously – please just stop…

  • lester

    You know I resisted the urge to trade for two whole days. I should have
    followed Moles advice to stay away as long as we are in the triangle
    zone.

  • Squidman

    Hey Thunda, the Imogene Pass Run filled in record time again. Can't wait!

  • katzo7

    Cannot say definitely but soon. IMO they will stick longs at a level, dropping it fast.

  • katzo7

    You know I was kidding you with stuff down below, right Issy?

    Can we meet for matzah at some point? That is if you imbibe. I do by association, my wife.

  • thunda72

    Yeah… we had a team meeting for the Wild West 200 yesterday. We're good to go. Team name: The Cubicle Slaves.

    Now if my knee would just heal so I can train in earnest! GLTY!

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Aaahhh. A Mixed marriage as the Yentas say!!!

  • ItsOnlyPaper

    Seriously start your own blog,
    why ya gotta kick a guy??
    Lester is the bastard step child around here.

  • katzo7

    Jeez, nothing gets by you. Hope you don' t find that other littl' titty.

  • NinjaPenguin

    Hey, you just have to ask TOS online help to activate the market depth in the active trader panel for you, and they'll set it up right away. Thank you for your posts, by the way; I've learned much from you.

  • Edward65

    Testing

  • Edward65

  • Edward65

    …..

  • thepoorlurker

    Mole,

    Your blog rocks! Your incessant work and intelligence is without rival! Thank you for sharing so
    much with us rats! Just one question. Why do you consider TK's book, “Sleep Inducer” material?
    Maybe it is…havent read it but I thought you and Tim were buds……just wondering…..

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    <Sent from the mobile phone as MLMT falls from 40th story … he jumped out of sheer frustration that resulted from too much tape gazing>

    Can some one please push the tape in some direction – for god's sake, I will be happy to have my stops hit, lose couple of hundred bucks and call it a day, than sit here and watch this numbing tape….

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    <Sent from the mobile phone as MLMT falls from 40th story … he jumped out of sheer frustration that resulted from too much tape gazing>

    Can some one please push the tape in some direction – for god's sake, I will be happy to have my stops hit, lose couple of hundred bucks and call it a day, than sit here and watch this numbing tape….