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November 2018 Momo Update
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November 2018 Momo Update

by The MoleNovember 30, 2018

Today marks the last session of November which is a good occasion to take stock where we are on the momo front. A lot of folks got blown out of their short positions on Wednesday and judging by the heated exchanges in the comment section yesterday emotions are running high, which frankly isn’t surprising after a year of constant nerve fraying whipsaw.ย It’s tested the mettle of even the most skilled traders and I wonder how many people would have simply taken the year off knowing what would transpire.

That’s an older VIX chart of mine which is based on an IV expansion rule I once came up with. The first step in the VIX expansion rule is that it must have dropped < the -40 mark on the ROC (I’m sure you could use any number of momo indicators instead). The second is that it then must breach > the zero mark, after which continuation > VIX 20 appears to be unavoidable. Which is exactly what happened once again this year.

The IVTS has been falling slowly and VIXEN managed to scalp a few winning campaigns. However a drop back < 0.9 is needed before the bearish scenario starts to lose sufficient luster and confidence returns to equities. The bear has shown his claws twice this year, so a simple high volatility bounce here won’t do. Continuation is everything.

SKEW:VIX is telling a similar story. There is an opening for the bulls here but as long as we see a series of lower highs and lower lows on the ratio this can quickly and violently resolve lower. There simply isn’t sufficient widespread confidence in equities right now – at least not yet. We all know that except for a small group of insiders almost nobody caught this punch higher, so very little keeps the same group from pulling liquidity if it serves their needs.

More momo analysis below the fold:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Brishort

    Mole, excellent post. Didn’t have the NYMO one in my toolbox, borrowing that one from now on.. :p

    Re: your comments (previous post) with Julie on first day of the month strength: I didn’t run the numbers myself, but it really depends on the bullish or bearish trend of the market. Plus there is a per month seasonality in the efficiency of the premiss. (note to Mole: It’s old, but the best I could find from quantified numbers. If you want to run them with your spreadsheets, at least the logic is there.)

    There is good intel to read on this. I particularly recommend:

    http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2011/10/beginning-of-month-effect-in-uptrends.html
    & https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/first_day_of_the_month_effect/

    https://quantifiableedges.com/1st-day-of-month-tendencies/

    And a shamelessly borrowed conclusion: December is an odd one (chart ร  la Mole!!!)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fde0c3bfcc874ca2d2bc38520e43cc553e5ef849387daa873a4ec6b846a63d8b.png

    To be thorough, if we gap up Monday, there is this as well!!:
    http://quantifiableedges.com/1-gaps-to-start-a-month/

  • Brishort

    Not many crypto comments left around, but I like the market animal spirit and very technical responding approach. The cycles run at internet speed and it is a beauty to see evolve.

    Scott had an excellent email, I am about to frame it on my wall, a real piece of excellent trading experience. Key excerpts to re-jump start the subject (hopefully Scott is not sending his army after me after reposting this!!)

    “So we are in a bear market. How does that change things?

    Well for one thing bear markets end on an extreme of bearish sentiment. Sentiment is still too frothy in crypto land.

    […]

    But, and it’s a big but… that bottom is coming.

    When it happens it will produce one of the truly great buying opportunities of the last few years.

    […]

    What I’m looking for is real authentic pain. Hard choices to be made.

    At the very least a good portion of the 2017 ICO’s must run out of money.

    Imagine you had a successful ICO that raised $30 million (the average) in ETH at ETH $1200 in 2017. You probably spent a million already, and the rest is down to about $2 million. Very soon if things keep falling you will be faced with an awful choice.

    Sell your remaining stacks of ETH for 5c in the dollar or face the prospect of completely running out of cash with the project unfinished.

    […]

    Guys who invested in an ICO for ten cents that went all the way to $2 and then back to .05 have to see other projects literally going out of business and decide to take a haircut rather than lose the lot.

    The whole cryptocurrency narrative must seriously be called into question. The “ha ha I was right” tweets from the naysayers must become intolerable.

    My experience is that the best investments should be truly ass puckering to make. And we aren’t there yet, but we will get there.

    So I’m moving some funds around to get ready.”

    Thanks Scott, truly excellent.
    The next leg down seems to have started.

    Traders and Mole, maybe it’s time to get crypto back on the radar.
    Even the cryptowatch chart window disappeared from ES. Must be a sign….

  • Sp00nman

    Yep good post Brishort, and to continue the discussion yesterday about beginning of month strength, there are articles/studies on this and it seems like the “edge” to beginning of month strength seems to have faded within the last ~10yrs, and was more pronounced prior to that. Maybe mutual funds have gotten better about spreading out end of month purchases from 401ks throughout the month over time and perhaps optimism at the beginning of the month (kind of like the new yr resolutions where everyone signs up at the gym)? Just a shot in the dark. Longer term there definitely is a correlation with beginning of month strength.

  • rmwaddelljr

    Dumbass X 2. (the vid) The pilot = a stupid dumb ass & the rider = double dumbass for not assessing RISK which is what traders & investors do. Clearly this guy is not one but would greatly benefit from Mole’s tutelage, IMO.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Brishort

    True, I saw that post at the time. Let’s be war buddies… this will be quite a show if 2500$ gets touched….Fortunately cash and waiting for the right opportunity.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long Crude via UWT 12.66, trying it agin

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Still don’t like action of European markets – especially the DAX

    they may be the canary?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok.
    but let’s get this straight..no hanging out together at the pool!
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_buddy

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    40 deaths per year. 1 in 500 chance of death per flight.
    what’s not to love?

    https://healthresearchfunding.org/20-scarey-hang-gliding-accident-statistics/

  • BKXtoZERO

    I couldn’t post yesterday due to Disqus being messed up. I see you guys got along FINE without me… the whole blog shut down….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    probably a good thing. I saw some guys reaching for tomato’s & bats.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys This is possible … I showed a similar chart over TG Holiday https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6ac7856d2e4781b9049393df84c8f11b68111a56689094346db8e7e5d365e12.png JULIE.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort below mentioned $NYMO … I use $NYMOT ( traditional) … +200 is overbought and – 200 is oversold
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EDIT Mistype $NYMOT not $MYOT

  • Brishort

    BB (battle buddies) it is then. Constraints accepted!

  • Brishort

    Julie’s SPX 2747 on deck again!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I would buy that scenario.
    especially if price & RSI are divergent.
    but do you have to put the drop-off so steep? what a bear!
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not only did USO fail to close the gap. (yesterday)
    this Friday morning it’s LOWER.
    one cannot afford to front run this puppy.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p4633466236c

  • randomuser6789

    Looks like a triple test of $50.00. There is no triple test. This WTIC puppy is going down.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a toast! to traders who fly by the seat of their pants!

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18399293567

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GLD strong support 115.25 Strong resistance 117.28
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not against the dollar.
    My lawyer said I could share this as public domain.
    ;-|

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p15046224099

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    F resistance 9.45 … Bounced off it’s 5 ema this a.m at 9.36 Room to run up on daily before overbought
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Getting ready to pop right now…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Platty sucking wind vs gold.

    so much for Chinese jewelry New Year gifts.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24PLAT%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p6668458076c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG My legal team admonished me to by Dark Pools and to avoid a possible law suit from you and Yoda ! The phrase “Catch Me If You Can” is applicable ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Sold half UWT from 12.66 at 13.21, may hold half

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s a pun. hang glider? 747? oh come on!
    comic genius unrecognized.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Embedded STOCHS 13,1 … When this occurs I use a RSI (30) with a front weighted moving average 6. A bullish close above is positive. I will post when this occurs as you may not be able to do this
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bears get no love.

    Build-a-Bear BBW breakdown.

    Buy? Sell? Short?
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBW&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p1671969935c
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    INTC
    The stock that I love to hate (it’s complicated)

    feel the options burn (long AND short)

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p0810807374c

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks Julie….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The Yo Yo effect … Trading range thru November Be careful the 5 – 21 and 55 ema’s in a bullish alignment with the 21 and 55 up trending Possible breakout to the upside
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    buy

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Friday’s are usually neutral to positive … hence the stall so far today. One item worth mentioning they do not want to drop the market too much on Friday esp before Christmas. A Big Dumpus now would spook Christmas shoppers and they might not spend as much as they ordinarily would at Christmas
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thnx.
    I can see a conservative fib top at 52.33
    I’m a seller at $53. This is my Honeybadger long play. news be damned.
    RSI 70 or bust!

  • mSquare

    MSFT – Adding to short (from yesterday).
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p5762586742c

    Chart shows it tried to get to $112s thrice and failed, so stop $112-ish. Also, has fallen less than other big-tech so a likely candidate to go lower if QQQs go lower…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thanks Brishort – glad it’s of value to you.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    mSquare. … Good job thinking it out and planning a trade and trading a plan
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Again, running stats on this is trivial and if I wasn’t so swamped with my other project I’d do it myself. So instead of discussing this to death I would prefer to see someone actually throw up a scatter chart.

  • Jason13

    Yes I agree. No big dump but we should get a little corrective down before some more upside. I have a small short Iโ€™m working. Hoping to see a re-visit of 2700. I wonโ€™t hold over weekend cause Iโ€™d be fretting over a China-US deal being announced and market going bonkers over it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We are definitely approaching the trough of disillusionment. Remember my pertinent post on that?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    look far left. if it pulls back to test, and refuses to sell? you’ll know.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p3568313448c

    $112 awesome point IMHO.
    -GG

  • BKXtoZERO

    Crude Holding, challenging 51…. I can see the Goal Line… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27TBWKOgvW8

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have a small short (probe) too Jason. If it goes lower going to watch 2692 and 2687

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Jason13

    Yup, thatโ€™s what I got.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks Chief … Excellent post and Have A Great Weekend Chief !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    strange, I was just playing that yesterday!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSav51fVlKU

  • ridingwaves
  • ridingwaves
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out, UWT next 1/4 position 13.89 from 12.66, holding the rest

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You too – stay warm!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    What do you guys think about this little jasper…. ? My husband went to Portland recently and bought it. I cruise around town in this …. I love it 1957 Porsche. He always wanted one and I said yes ! Only one in town. There is another one in Red Lodge MT a 1951 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e3debe56c710ff57649f6f1088e33d1a04c48632fd9de7ad3c554b22d9ac46f.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I love Married with Children… they left no stones intact

  • Brishort

    If VWAP doesn’t hold, I have few SAR sell triggers on the 15 minutes of NQ & ES that just triggered.
    This is month-end on top of it.

    If it gathers any traction on the down-side, it could be spectacular.
    BUT for now, dancing around VWAP makes me careful of any trigger.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I like the older ones too…. tasty,

  • Brishort

    This is what 15 min NQ looks like on my screen. The 15 min SAR with these parameters tends to be fairly reliable for short term trading Trendline showing as well. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a341ea15bf699b61486cf4435d6ec4d20460344c1b31b83ebe1287ed5a57728.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5586590014c838b01a8eab236ebaa5cd6e993d2d0df35b8f6da7bce70ba73830.jpg Have a good weekend all. VIX right in the middle of the 2.0 Bollinger… 50/50 toss up. Not much for gambling…. Holding some crude, via UWT fron 12.66, mostly cash now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    That is quite a Lovely Jackson Pollock!

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    needs to be Silver, or platinum.
    LOL.

  • Brishort

    How do you call an average lover?
    A VWAP hugger!

  • bankwalker

    Is that a screenshot of an IB chart? I noticed that IB doesn’t paint the SAR dot until the bar closes whereas as most others paint it as soon as it touches.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    My husband always wanted one GG … I said yes … I am glad I did .. Really cool. A lot of people in MT have never seen one and I am asked when I drive it “What is it?”
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Yes, IB including overnight session on NQ, and yes, painted only after the close.

  • bankwalker

    I think they’re called a washtub Porsche.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    lots of water up there. could rust to death.

    I saw a 911 carrera in Scottsdale yesterday. Must be a sign!
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/61Q-e%2BrOGUL._SX466_.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW … I call it the “IGLOO ” … LOL! BW have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    have you ever compared the results with using the cash NDX index? I’ve found the cash indices to produce fewer false signals, but I never backtested it.

  • Brishort

    All depends on time horizon and tech used:

    P&F: clearly on cash NDX
    Anything less than 30 minutes charting: NQ including night session

  • bankwalker

    OK. I was asking about the 15 minute SAR specifically, but I get your point.

    For instance, your chart above shows the /NQ switched to short, but my NDX chart is still long, both 15 minute SAR.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 10 min chart A symmetrical triangle developing today
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    10 min? sounds a bit ..thirsty.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup GG looks like E leg right now and near apex of triangle. A breakout or breakdown should occur shortly
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    only if I go to lunch. Which I just ate at my desk.

  • BKXtoZERO

    little head and shoulders on the last 3 days, right at last monday high…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a Scott follower using h&s language?
    (eye roll)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX the symmetrical triangle today .. A breakout or breakdown soon JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3eca1fe9acbe8a43b81a49243c378db255cd57c8c78fc3d5b58d56dac72fa4d.png

  • Brishort

    Are you saying you are now playing in the multi-verse of the GG lunch special indicator accuracy?

    Let me call the Flash, we need a new flashpoint old-future multiverse view!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQzvFtwSO48

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    tip: any time I saw a wedge that sharp?…..

    draw some channels, you have to be ahead of the breakout.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys .. Click on the chart for clarity
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    I tend to agree. H&S is the mother of all deception of all the tech universe.
    You can usually only explain after the fact why it didn’t work (again…)
    I stopped using them, too unreliable and people see them everywhere!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can see the up channel from HERE.

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    ya… playing today only….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I see them. But I distinctly remember Scott, or was it Mole – who flat out confronted and said “what is the probability”? crickets responded.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I can also simply call this 5 hits of a line of resistance 2746

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s an awesome car. Keep it in the garage during winter!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort H & S can really mess with the EW crowd It can be a 4th wave or a developing wave 2 ( after a completed wave 5 .. then a wave 1 down with the wave 2 up as being the right shoulder) I have seen this many times
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    without my leather suit, my fur would catch on fire.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    15m chart.
    crude as heck, open source software behind a firewall.

    edit: that channel could be cut up into quads.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d3531db5a08a95d9380fb31ed4e7f4b54597d066e633ba982fa1dc75ff052bd.png

  • Brishort

    Market is walking very very slowly… I don’t really like it… makes for no conviction and trap moves… G-20 being a perfect excuse with month-end on top of it. Any bullshit news could squeeze hard if not more participation going down.

    Threading very carefully on my side.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Now that I think about it…that big move on the 28th?
    was likely quadrant line to quadrant line, like a quantum move.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Month End on a Friday no less.
    if I had a nickel for every BS move mentioned around this period.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Anyone else short SPX besides myself and Jason ? I shorted yesterday a very small position (probe) Initial targets 2692 and 2687 with the possible advance shown in chart below this a.m.Below 2687 could get very ugly
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    sorry.
    I’m saving up for my Porsche.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰ ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Only Bears drive Porsche’s … Get with the program GG ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Actually in and out of being flat. See message below, unable to get conviction to hold any position. Looking at ES hourly on the ZERO, the market is just going nowhere since shortly after the Powell thing…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    We will Chief … My husband’s dream of having one. I could never say no
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You’re right.
    My EGO deserves better.
    he he
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8j_Oef0mN80

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll be damned, a coworker wants to have lunch.
    l8ter.

  • Brishort

    Let’s go short them, GG is away the next 2 hours!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If I’m not mistaken this one has a water cooled engine, right? Is it a 356?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ah right – it is air-cooled. What a treasure and it looks in great shape. Will he let me drive it when I come to visit? ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Now below 60 min 8 ema and 60 min Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) SPY Oscillating on 60 min VWAP What should we expect on a Friday … Too much .. Must get some work done that has come across my desk
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually they work for me because I usually wait for the preceding fake out move that blows out all the early entries.

  • BKXtoZERO

    (like me)

  • TimeToPanic

    Julie, I’m expecting another leg higher early next week, maybe the peak on 5th/6th December. Watching for a fake breakout above the MAs, and also there’s a fib at 2766. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a blow-off up to the next fib, and just below the previous two rallies, around 2805 (what a gift that would be). Good luck with your shorts, stay nimble.

  • Brishort

    VWAP again… time for lunch then

  • Wave_surfer

    news item?
    or glitch / resonate frequency in the high speed trading algo?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP I too am expecting a rally but not to a new high above 2940 per chart shown SPX this a.m 2747 going to be tough. IMO a small down leg to approx 2692 or 2687 then up. Also going up to 2772 – 2775 still a possibility. Yes TTP Going to be very nimble

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX … It has now broke to the upside … Some kind of news ?
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    earthquake in Alaska 7.0 looks like shook the market up a bit too

  • rmwaddelljr

    If your 40 deaths per year (1 in 500 chance per flight) was due to safety harness employed for the rider (wonder if stats specify that fact), then have at it. As traders, make your second trade first (know when you are out). Our gliding victim employed ZERO “stops” by abandoning common sense and failing to use safety protocols. So my opening statement stands: “He be dumb as hell for not using his noodle” .

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    That is what it is Max ? An earthquake and market explodes up ? Unbelievable !
    JULIE

  • Wave_surfer

    people are strange (or is it an AI computer algorithm?)
    Earthquake in Alaska = a great reason to buy more stocks?
    They reacted quickly

  • maxcherry

    timing seems right, beats me why it would

  • Brishort

    Back to 2747… again…

  • bankwalker

    It was going to go up anyway …

  • Sp00nman

    I think it triggered an avalanche that killed 50% of the bears.. lol

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A 7.0 earthquake in Alaska moves the market up ? What will an atomic bomb do ? This is crazy ! An expected tsunami going to rattle the Pacific Ocean ? I can’t believe any of this !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Let’s see if it can break above the down trend line intersecting approx 2754
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    if it does, next stop 2815

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    IMO ..Must get above 2772 – 2775 first
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Go away for a bit and get more weird action…Earthquake and end of month shenanigans

  • Jason13

    Is there a number they want to paint?

  • BKXtoZERO

    The big stock rally is after Yellowstone goes……..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Chinese talking

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Jason they knew that you and I were short … A plot against us !
    JULIE

  • maxcherry

    FWIW

    first week of Dec (based on first Friday) up 68.75% 22/32 from 1986

    second week up 43.75% 14/32

    third week (opex) up 75.00% 24/32

  • Jason13

    LOL

  • BKXtoZERO

    stopped out of my small TVIX position 41 to 40.4, got em hard on crude. Off to the Indian Buffet! Have a good weekend……..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A busted symmetrical triangle to a nice up channel. 2754 is crucial JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3f960f29921ee9dfe0cec7e0889f8b803ce5811014fafd01e6c2b4a5d26fa368.png

  • Brishort

    Yesterday’s high on ES is 2754.5. Crucial indeed….

  • Brishort

    Same NQ 15 min view as this morning, reverse scenario with regards to SAR. Now hugging the top….

    ES high of yesterday next key resistance to be resolved @2754.5

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c373c838ce800f0b2fc265579f8a9768118bd336827902c1de57924f2e5531c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m back.
    close yer books!
    ;-D

  • ridingwaves

    keep your eye on the Aleutians, Japan, Siberian areas….nature is pissed off at humans…expect retribution…time for the northern volcanoes to get active..plays into Mole’s cool off musings…
    Alaska
    https://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=312070&vtab=Weekly
    world
    https://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm

  • Brishort

    You missed an earthquake it seems.
    We learned in your absence that 1 earthquake = 1 Powell put power-up!

  • Brishort

    Survey: I have 7 screens in front of me, and I find that I am running low on screen real-estate.
    Do you know a cure? ;p

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort .. Another pair of eyes ! LOL! I have two screens for two eyes
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yes.
    do what I do with my charts.
    rotate them
    ;-D

    http://canyouactually.com/wp-content/uploads/3-430.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (do NOT google – cougar with glasses)
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    my Ego was adjusting itself.
    he he.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    in a secret desert bunker.

  • Brishort

    Market officially stalled at upper BB from VWAP.

    GG, you are officially the traffic police now, we have congestion, tell them to move!!!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea71b18b9e7605d078448b46ed314343de1a7c38b43032cdf826837c5691febc.jpg

  • Brishort

    ROFL!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    an hour before close on a Friday Month end.
    no blood from a turnip.

    https://i.imgur.com/YjqissZ.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort I would be comfortable with a break below 2747.66

  • Brishort

    I have a similar SAR intersection on ES 5 min. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0904956b3c6d93edd96336c26815de07f0485d693e18f124214ecde32a1f9e73.png

    But for now, nothing happening…might as well just power-up into the close.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this one is for the Newb’s.

    MACD crossover? guaranteed? easy money?
    wrong.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/777600008166e060ba088b0dcc1c2a8ceacb267ce87c8f71d9ceb015a66e94c5.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Draw trend lines on the MACD
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you do it.
    my Ego is tired.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Better yet CCI (20) with trend lines.60 min and above Below 60 min use CCI (14)
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I had to add YAI, (yet another indicator) to my charts.
    but you may be right.
    https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:commodity_channel_index_cci

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BPSPX,
    the double dip is over, the Big Bear took his biggest shot.
    Quite remarkable, doesn’t happen too often.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34026304719

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    why is this 3 hour ago post, floating to the top?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG The present rally off the November 23rd low is impulsive
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and that means…..?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX,
    the bulls better hit the gas, and fast.
    no time for stairs, only bears get elevators.

    2888 by new years?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/722e397377f819c4a6f27c90a8db89969e04a7cb62779d4568574b648b71f192.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    High probability of an advance … Could be an ABC which the present impulse is an A then a B down followed by C up OR the impulse is a wave 1 with 5 waves up i.e 1 up 2 down 3 up 4 down then the final 5th up Either way an ABC or 5 waves up means more upside
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I have 2862 for a target
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    did you feel the quake? Montana is relatively closer to Alaska.

    https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2018/11/30/alaska-earthquake-hide-in-courthouse-nr-vpx.ktva

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yellowstone is next.
    enjoy the car while you can.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

    this guy checks quakes like we check stockcharts.
    FWIW.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LF8LjEVXxA

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I posted a chart and comment over the TG Holiday of a possible harmonic pattern that could be developing. X A B C and now D up It is a bearish pattern configuration . Following the completion of D DOWN hard and fast
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Indian buffet ?
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Oooh ya

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    They usually have 2 different desserts….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Triple negative RSI divergence on 60 min chart with a MACD negative divergence. Down approx 0.68% on a very small short probe. Will not cover and hold over weekend. China IMO already priced in. Possible 2772 – 2775 target (originally posted target) Not running scared Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I still look at ew possibilities… Or what I would call them and as usual anything and everything is possible

  • Jason13

    Out with small loss….will re-evaluate Sunday night futures. This has that ridiculous wall of worry climb smell to it where you canโ€™t get a good long entry and shorts get creamed.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Maybe I am dumb (don’t answer) but why are the futures continuing to tick away 30+ minutes after market close on a Friday? Did the bulls leave their computer program loaded and running? Hoo- https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba995e0817d16bc104ce169f1e1caba0a6f6de6c540ea0fb446bf7d6474c3e6b.jpg Ray for stocks…….

  • randomuser6789

    It probably means we gap down on Monday!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    As Brishort hinted, alternate Universe.

    or Indian food gas.

  • TimeToPanic

    Smart waver I read has it as likely 5 waves, 4th wave might have just happened with the little correction, 5th wave underway.

  • TimeToPanic

    200MA Jason, and they left it pretty close. Monday a gap up, possibly a big one, and IMHO, the one to fade.

  • TimeToPanic

    I still think we’re now at the same spot we were at in March this year. I think a repeat of 13th March to end of April is now directly ahead. BPSPX chart shows a nice bounce into that March high, just like now.

    I still need to see some actual real solid fear before a final bull market rally can happen, it’s all been far too easy so far for the bulls.

  • Yoda

    Public transportation or walk Bears get to use

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys EXAS Weekly chart a rising wedge or ED or a bearish 3 drives to the top pattern as some technicians prefer to label it from Spring 2018 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1d1e33cbb3325a523312f5836c53c5dff1995291e2597ae20c658ec6e00b8a32.png Now completing final leg This is setting up for a great short JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    I just watched the hang-gliding video, really got my heart pounding, I hate heights.
    Glad it was a reasonably happy ending. The notes were very amusing.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    This is for everyone at my gym:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMASqoKX5rA

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    then you will love this video.

    it’s like trading options on Expiry week.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iD4qsWnjsNU

  • sutluc

    The same thing happened here in Canada a couple of years ago. Instructor forgot to attach his passenger. Results were not happy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rUARSPzKes

    Coffee, Gym, Trading.
    in that order.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • TimeToPanic

    Hard to believe instructor and novice wouldn’t be sure.

    I don’t mind airplanes, but otherwise, terra firma is built for me!

  • TimeToPanic

    Silly French accents, no surprise they’re crazy.

    Check out the guy who climbs high buildings and cranes, English guy, forget the name, there was a documentary about him. Mad.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDb4h4xT-u8

    Literally makes me sweat, horrible.

  • maxcherry

    Just so you know, the stock market will be closed dec 5th in honor of the late
    President Bush.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG She’s a brunette … Gotta be a blonde !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC The “Big Dog” of the Banking Index $BKX … Can it do it ? We will know shortly JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d120b2ec0f31c5a3f10f014e80e6d2d1abcf424e74b2cf7582c33e088b93e3c7.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Julie not catching a falling knife .. Needs a bullish close above the channel and resistance with STOCHS 39,1 going above 20 NOW RSI a positive divergence https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a51c9125eebbb491a73fca359227fd33f122158b24ddf2ae2e0f51e59d80c39.png and MACD has crossed above it’s signal line JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’s got a few of those as well. True patriot – hehe ๐Ÿ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Some people get addicted to adrenalin. I admire their balls but let’s not forget that all it takes is one misstep or in this case one wind gust to end them. It’s like trading. Some guys like to bet it all over and over and perhaps they get away with it for a while. And then other shoe drops… I prefer the easy slow method that maximizes survival.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    WOW, that’s something. Thanks for the update.

  • Jason13

    Trade war paused.
    Turmp agreed that on Jan 1, 2019, he’ll leave tariffs on $200 billion worth of produce at the 10% rate and not raise to 25% at this time. China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial and other product from United States. China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from US immediately.
    And there it is….should be gap up and go on Monday.

  • TimeToPanic

    Monday will be interesting. I agree a gap up *should* be the result of these headlines, and it’ll be a nice time to sell the news, and well done if you bought the rumour this past week.

    I just have a feeling the market may not gap up, and instead gap down. Just to fool with us.

  • maxcherry

    Nothing new , not sure if it was done For Nixon

    Jun 8, 2004 ยท United States financial markets will close Friday for the funeral of former President Ronald Reagan, who died Saturday at age 93. During the last century, exchanges have usually closed for hours or …

    Dec 29, 2006 ยท Stock Markets to Close for Ford Funeral. NEW YORK — The New York Stock Exchange said Friday it will close on Tuesday as part of a national day of mourning to mark the funeral of President Gerald R. Ford. The NYSE joined the Nasdaq Stock Market, which made a similar announcement on Thursday.

  • Jason13

    Yes thats a possibility….there are some overbought indicators they need to burn off.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Blondes are soooo demanding.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcCqjUUE7lE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Upside target c.2820-40, depends on how long til we reach upper channel line.

    I think late next week perhaps.

    Rising trendline just visible at the bottom right is from the 2009 lows, as good a target on the downside as any:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/OgRL0bP9/

    After 2 days of yet more packing ahead of moving home in 8 days, I am off to the gym. Deadlifting is a cure-all, muzzy heads included. Have a peaceful rest of Sunday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Don’t forget to check-out MOle’s new blog.

    EvilGym.com
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX 2722 – 2725 matching the down trending 89 ema then a pullback https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d3f1a5533f33fa004a002bc4f856e5335265abd313286044518a3e8c54e3ce7e.png JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2722 – 2725 was a target posted previously last week
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Always remember RSI(3) @ 84 and above expect a pullback. You can play it on the Williams% confirming close below -20 (husband’s https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fcfe3ea1950e0604371b8b63bbf7cb3bae9a1685a954f023c18812bb75b06c8f.png trick for short term) JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    In other news – Paris is on fire again. I wonder how long Macron can last given that this is becoming a weekly ritual now.

  • TimeToPanic

    Good job I have my post-workout buzz, that blog is rubbish.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    I’m long yello jackets, mai oui.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Crazy… also I just now watched that hang gliding video. crazy on both accounts…….

  • TimeToPanic

    Dax to 10k looks likely, H&S:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/UQFQlKaU/

  • TimeToPanic

    Nikkei may be a buy at c.19,500:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/2QQM5yvA/

    Textbook IHS with retrace to neckline.

  • TimeToPanic

    Chicoms to devalue shortly, maybe Spring ’19?

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ib0mYs4Q/

  • TimeToPanic

    Hanging by a thread…..

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/oxfQ8BnW/

  • Jason13

    Man am I glad I got out on Friday. Futures up almost 40 pts. Over 2800 now

  • TimeToPanic

    Nice. Look back to 6th – 7th November.

    Sell the news…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • TimeToPanic

    Paedos endorse cake:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SyurgZ8GaQ

    Brass Eye, Brit satire at its best.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Brishort said it best.

    should be a comment of the Day. Two old salty dogs we be.
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b177cbf5cd52131da3d7c51eb2f674295b2731ba3cf5c0b8a13f7c1ad07666a7.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    conservative rally till Dec 17. based on Time-symmetry.
    not sure about that gap (tonight). Anything above 50% October retrace is positive.
    especially if price is above the median line

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7853d46b8a21a4340e968b933d1f5ed67d90d426a8ff590da5db2510cfa2ef03.png

  • sutluc
  • Sp00nman

    Late response but very cool car! An old friend of mine had a 50’s porsche in bad shape that needed to be restored that he had sitting around for a long time. I know it fetched a pretty penny even in bad shape so I can imagine one in good shape..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys As I type SPX implied open approx 2805. Now a very common projection for a 5th wave is .618 wave 3 added to low of wave 4 is approx 2793. A very important algo is 2795. 2784 is another important algo The open could very well be a gap and crap ! I held a very small short probe thru the weekend in anticipation of this scenario Love it !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, you had a plan. that’s what counts.

    are you a 2888 believer yet?
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/november_2018_momo_update/#comment-4219614497
    ๐Ÿ˜‰

    I’m surprised your Internet hasn’t frozen yet.
    Currently, It’s 30 degrees warmer here, and I’m loving it!
    -GG

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 2862 2844
    julie

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG 16 degrees right now at the house. low expected 12 degrees tonight Mid week zero . Love it as Bridger Bowl and Big Sky both opened this weekend (Saturday)
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    break a leg

    You ski?!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Never in a 100 Never in a 1,000 Never in a million years will I break any bones
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Hasn’t the Market taught you?….
    NEVER say Never.

    https://blog.liftopia.com/tips-for-skiing-50/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I sprained my foot when I was 19 running away from the cops at a kegger they busted. I tripped on a sprinkler head and got caught.My mom and dad had to pick me up at the police station. It was not a good scene . We all laugh at it now
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If he is not dead then ? ? Maybe Elvis The Pelvis is not dead either Quite a few Elvis sightings at minit marts – gas stations – movie theaters
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I think he’s dead. Elvis would be nearly 86 now, let that sink it.
    and Marylyn Monroe? the Queen Elizabeth’s age – 92.
    http://jaquo.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/queen_monroe.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG If I said that I saw a UFO this summer I would be accused of having more than one glass. I did see one … It was a tripod and something mounted on top. I watched it for exactly 6 minutes and then it flew away ! Honest Injun !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I believe.
    A coworker of mine runs at 4am. 2 summers ago, saw a triangle object. Desert skies are crystal clear.

    ‘I believe’.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIh8VPoPBhk

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    gotta run, xmas tree to attend.

  • BKXtoZERO

    well I wish I held a little more crude than 1/4 position as I saw this as likely

  • Mark Shinnick
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Isn’t it too cold for snow?

  • TimeToPanic

    For a fun dive down the rabbit hole, check out Miles W Mathis (updates page) and his paper on John Lennon. You will be surprised.

  • TimeToPanic

    Is that -11 degrees celsius? That’s cold. I remember a trip to Finland years ago, way up North, -26 degrees celsius, hated it, crashed a snowmobile too.

    ‘People actually died in their homes as the temperature suddenly plummeted more than 60 degrees in less than a day.’

    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/global-cooling-is-real-major-temperature-low-2046/

    The Azores for me I think, warm, and no one’s going to nuke it.

  • TimeToPanic

    Very tempted to short now. Short NQ at 7097.