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NQ Leading
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NQ Leading

by The MoleFebruary 23, 2009

UPDATE 12:30pm EST: The NQ is clearly leading today – it was dropping harder than the ES this morning, and it bounces stronger than the ES as well.

Watch the NQ or the NDX for any signs of a retracement. I thought I’d never say this but if I see one more daily down candle I’m going to puke. Player needs a reload once in a while…. this morning was extremely disappointing. I actually miss the Paulson/Bernanke duo – now there were two fellows who knew how to bang up the tape!

UPDATE 12:52pm EST: Something’s not right – observe:

This is another indicator I wrote a while back – I call it the Supertrin. It’s basically the TRIN normalized to compensate for the bearish extremes and then flipped – reads so much better than the traditional TRIN. Anyway, you can see that the readings are very strange – it’s actually pushing up while the market keeps dropping and dropping in a very orderly fashion. Call me paranoid but I’m thinking big huge bear trap – there might be a bounce coming.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • GoCougs

    Mole, what level are you looking to go long? Seems 1141 might be a good floor. I made some going on the down trend, we are still in the channel. TRIN/Q also trending down

  • rhae

    Just watching very short term, for any chink in the Bearish armor… SPY tagging Friday lod

  • T. Waffle

    We are in for some nice bounce soon. Willam % and MACD are turning.

  • poopsquad

    take a look at the TRIN. no momentum to the sell side here. Treasuries also can't rally and CMBX is a bit tighter on the day. financials outperforming. I expect a nice bounce from here.

  • GoCougs

    Poop,

    I agree, TRIN trending down on SPX and NDX right now…

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Bought SZCCY SPY MAR 2009 $77 calls @ $3.10

    I sold the CX calls near open @ $4.74, 18% gain

  • Trader Jose

    Holy Guacamole, Mole … re. the Z and $ … did you really think it was going to be different? Everyone wants a free ride and thinks they have the right to bitch about it if it's not to their liking.

    Like I said a week ago, you have a group of folks that are interested. From a business perspective you are building a core client base willing to pay for the Zero and believe that what you have to say is important. As that core group becomes more adept at using Z and successfully applying your insight, word will spread and your business will grow. You can build off that.

    In the meantime f* the whiners … give the good stuff (like your weekly and daily insight) to the payers and let the freeloaders give each other their half-assed opinions!

    TJ

  • Insect Overlord

    Pretty decent tug o' war going on with gold at the 1000 level. If it hits and bounces it'll be a double kiss off a psychologically important number.

  • jigdaddy

    sitting in all cash right now….im liking the potential for a bounce…hopefully my limit orders get filled on XLF calls and FAS shares…waiting to see if erikd's call of potential of 740 test on SPX comes to fruition…

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    New blog entry here
    I tried playing a bounce today, but very quickly returned aggressively short. Action is quite ugly, imo
    http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Stopped out @ $2.91.
    $#!&

  • MaxPainMan

    NOTE: pretty light volume today on major indices

  • standard_and_poor

    Broke through friday lows, extemely oversold on traditional indicators – so be carefull.
    I will be adding to BAC puts on pullbacks.

  • standard_and_poor

    BAC about to break intraday support.

  • alphahorn

    OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! stop it already

  • aleatoric

    We're now testing the channel http://www.screencast.com/t/LVqmY97YyD

    I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a reversal here 🙂

  • Erikd

    nasdaq will bounce here shortly when AAPL hits the washout area. aapl will give the signal take a look
    AAPL http://screencast.com/t/shft7NZjR

  • indusequities

    Bought ANR @ 17.04. This may move into my investment account 🙂

  • Erikd

    BUY this market NOW>>>> max down we could go is 734. BUY iT HERE….

  • T. Waffle
  • Smeagol

    It's starting …

  • HungryNewt

    Absolutely Mole. Absolutely.

  • Insect Overlord

    mole…wtf…you have this supertrin and you don't even post it on your site with a live feed so I can leech off you some more? First you actually make me pay for something that you have put in an enormous amount of your freetime into, then you have this supertrin thing that you designed as well but don't make it available??? BULLSHIT.

  • HungryNewt

    lol

  • GoCougs

    Here comes the bounce…

  • jigdaddy

    Ok you got me..especially with the CAPS…last time you wrote in CAPS, I
    made a shit ton of cash. 🙂

  • standard_and_poor

    Taking small % of puts off table for higher reload here.

  • BalaB

    Hedging Shorts

  • molecool

    When can I come over and wash your car?

  • molecool

    I got that reference – LOL 🙂

  • Erikd

    re-post as per molecool and HungryNewt
    when we rally into the close and have 2 hammers in a row on the SPX and we rally up for the coming 5-8 days it will paralyze most to thinking that we pu in a bottom on the SPX… i will reshort at the top at the right time… we have started a new options cycle which means we will chop sideways overall in a range for the next 2 weeks, MM will be taking bets over the next 2 weeks, they will not show there hand in a big way until the last 2 weeks of the cycle.. this is a good BIAS to have whenever a new options cycle start…

  • HungryNewt

    I think that you drew that lower trend line incorrectly. If you use the lower tip on the first candle you should use the lower tip on the bottom/second candle. Same thing if you use the bodies… just my .02

  • standard_and_poor

    Closed off more puts here.

  • Enfinity

    What a piker…you're not going to send your wife?!

  • J-So

    BAC will breakout…..to the UPside! the break down is a fake out. Be careful. I am long BAC FWIW and I also am being very careful. : )

  • rhae

    DIA tagging 9/11/ 2003… I remember that one

  • HungryNewt

    …it's an art not a science. sometimes i'm more anal than I should be. 😉

  • T. Waffle

    Thanks for the tip. I will keep that in mind. Cheers!!

  • indusequities

    I liked RBS here. But need a second opinion. RBS has a quick target of $11.00..

    Share your thoughts.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Bought SZCCY SPY MAR 2009 $77 calls @ $3.10, again!

  • Insect Overlord

    I just bought QLD calls…here are the details…

    http://screencast.com/t/u22a0HeuTHH

  • standard_and_poor

    Watching FAZ, may add to “long term” position today , not a day or short term trade.

  • denali92

    We will get down days until there is capitulation. Without capitulation of all the bulls, it is going to be this painful, slow downtrade that tortures us all, as it does not seem wise to be short and longs, even scalping longs are rarely rewarded unless you know when the PPT will arrive. Best guess is that this afternoon, overnight and in to tomorrow's open, we start to get the despair that is needed. Looks like we might have had that scalp at 1pm, but it should fade when ES hits 756 to 758.

  • alphahorn

    i'd love a 5-6 day rally, we need this mornings sell off to achieve that. i'm stupid long now, let's go

  • tom riles

    Looks tome like that super trin is peaking like it did before past declines

  • Insect Overlord

    We're in different markets but similar trades. Good to see when other people are thinking alike. 🙂

  • HungryNewt

    I still agree Erikd. I'm still playing off of these charts which I posted late last week.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/bqGViT4F DIA
    http://www.screencast.com/t/UNtWJrFmu SPY
    http://www.screencast.com/t/DLVlBWFwQic QQQQ
    http://www.screencast.com/t/DcgzvJT5Ii IWM

  • rhae

    A Patriotic Bump? 9/11

  • T. Waffle

    SOLD WFC JUL 09 10 PUT @3.20

    8.48% Return 🙂

  • Insect Overlord

    volume too thinly traded for my tastes.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    It's up over 100% from the Jan low and you're projecting a climb of over 80% from here. That's pretty bold for the C of the UK.

  • Erikd

    HungryNewt has the range for the next 5-10 trading range… nice easy read….

  • TomOfTheNorth

    atta boy!

  • Erikd

    when we crack thru 7.40 on the XLF you will get your wish…

  • T. Waffle

    Actually i just need to remove the upper channel. lower line is correct.

  • fuzzygreysocks
  • Erikd

    i can see it now that the bulltards will say that the bottom is in now after the next few days action….

  • Keirsten

    Agree with the comments below- not sure about that black candle it posted today. Meanwhile you'll probably make $$$ on it. LOL

  • T. Waffle

    HIGH FIVE

  • poopsquad

    Mole – what do you do to 'normalize' the TRIN to superTRIN ?

  • DrMalaka

    SP, remember that these leveraged negatives are not good long term plays because the way they are structured, much better for day or short term trend trade.

  • Keirsten

    I can't tell you how many traders I spoke to over the weekend who were already calling the bottom here, and some are very seasoned. Aye yi yi.

  • Newbeeeeee

    Just wanted to say I appreciate what you do on the Blog. I've only been reading occasionally over the last few weeks, so I'm new here.

    I could probably pay for and appreciate the Zero too, if I know how to use it usefully, but as a trader who is inexperienced, it's still a bit of a mystery to me. Hopefully, I'll start to get it one day. So for now I won't be subscribing, I would not be using it.

    Do you mind if people read the Blog, without subscribing? I just try to follow the psychology and general types of strategies, I do not follow or mirror anyone's trades. Do you call that leeching?

    Honestly, I am just trying to learn to trade more markets in a more professional fashion. I can just go away if you want. I just get the feeling newbies aren't really welcome here, just my impression.

    First and last comment, Don't want to waste anyone's time.

  • peterey

    Erikd, do u use “log” charts?

  • fuzzygreysocks

    $CPCE getting “call-y” – http://cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

  • Cross

    Thanks for that tip. Is there any rule of thumb you use to decide whether to draw trendlines on bodies or wicks?

  • Erikd

    when does FNM and FRE report?

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Just increased my position in CY.

    Did you get QAVCCs or CDs?

  • Vardoger

    VIX up against resistance from 2/2, 2/17, 2/20 trendline. Scaling into UWM calls but still want to see us actually test the bottom. FED might get it done tomorrow. Mostly flat and bored. Please bounce.

  • HardTimes

    I've found it's not TOO bad holding FAZ in a downtrend; I held it from mid December to mid January and made money on it (not the best trade but a learning experience). These are definitely one place where the “trend is your friend” and keeps you from getting slaughtered.

  • Insect Overlord

    Approaching 50% fib retracement on VIX…

    http://screencast.com/t/3mvHqtHS2

  • DrMalaka

    Let me help you with that, they report every day that they are completely insolvent and losing tons of money that we the tax payer will have to cover. Then four times a year they report fantastic news and numbers. The later report is today I believe.

  • Keirsten

    Must be happening fairly soon- both reported last in mid Nov.

  • HungryNewt

    I think that everyone's welcome as long as they are respectful and try to give back to the community here. What's not appreciated is people expecting Mole or others here to give away their hard work. This is a free blog so no expectations should be placed on the host/community.

  • perspective

    bulls become bulltards, as;

    bears become beartards.

    and around around we go.

  • perspective

    can you believe those guys? the insanity at calling for a market bottom after a 50% decline!

    thats like calling for another 50% decline after a 50% decline.

    crazy stuff.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    I called them this morning, they have not called back. reached aig, they have not scheduled, must report by 60 days after 12/31. i think they will run down the clock
    all 3 are overdue, not a good sign

  • bergs

    Erikd
    You still holding the your XLF calls?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    HIGH FIVE

    I'm still short – looking for new lows – big new lows

  • Insect Overlord

    FNM due to report on 2 March before the open (unconfirmed)

  • aleatoric

    Do you guys know a good website to check futures quotes? I'm at work and I can't access TOS :-p

  • Squidman

    Got FAS at 4.70, will add xlf calls on next dip. Feelin dirty again though.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    called again freddie 3/2 fannie still no date looks like they want towait for last day allowed by law.

  • T. Waffle

    I am long for now. Minimum expectation on SPX is 803

  • jigdaddy

    yes he is long..

  • TomOfTheNorth

    The luncheon countertrend rally has concluded – down trend resumes

  • kzhat
  • kzhat

    my reply to you didn't go through properly, sorry for the repost. this is a good site to use: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures

  • el gatO

    FSYS continues to press lower…….rolling down stops.
    GG is flashing a sell signal. stop over 32.5
    ESI bearish engulfing pattern. looks like a dead cat bounce. I can't see this regaining its upside mojo

    The US dollar appears ready for a tumble in the intermediate term. Golds rally and convergence the dollar has now been accounted for. Time for a disconnect?? I believe gold has accounted for re inflation. The dollar turning down here would confirm the thesis IMO.

  • beer_to_whiz

    Erikd, I thought you were long today, or is that just a daytrade? Still long XLF and SPY Calls
    TIA

  • aleatoric

    Thanks!

  • TomOfTheNorth

    creeping doubt on short position as financials look fairly strong – but will stay the course

  • Erikd

    i am long right now but probably not in 5-10 days.. will post the next move when we get there, will let the market do her thing…

  • alphahorn

    aapl reaching the target zone, i was filled at 87.57

  • BalaB

    Mole,

    hmmmm…..Lower Zero signal broke through a 100% RL (even after allowable tolerance applied of +/-3pts on both Cash & Futures).

  • indusequities

    C would be an interesting one to watch.. Long from Friday with an average price of 1.82

  • El gAto

    watching HD closely as a “tell”. The bulls might try and spin this tomorrow..

    Looking to add to DECK calls

  • de3600

    closed skf for 23 percent gain short now

  • alphahorn

    erikd (man) your predictions are getting scary good, AAPL as you said turned where you said and we're heading north, nice job dude!

  • Squidman

    Noticed that also–maybe because lower RL is higher percent today?

  • Grtded

    Alpha, I agree, he is getting to be MM good. I jumped into XLF at 7.25.

  • Insect Overlord

    this is the part of pivots that I hate…it seems like every time there's a reversal brewing, it reverses right to a pivot. Everything about this chart, to me, says “sell” except that fucking pivot, which is always there it seems.

    http://screencast.com/t/epJy1qFdUBn

  • Grtded

    I forgot to say, Erikd thanks for offering up your keen insights.

  • Erikd

    can you confirm that? need to know

  • perspective

    mole – one of your gifts is spotting the bear trap. very nicely done.

    i think it could fail though in another hour.

  • Erikd

    XLF is above 7.40 level now and nobody told me, i posted this level earlier to watch to time the rally… 8>)

  • TomOfTheNorth

    AIG NEWS – BAIL

  • BalaB

    hmmm…unless another RL came out showing different odds, I still see
    100% at 755 (carry over from last week) this is not to say we can't go
    down more but usually we get a nice bounce on those odds

  • Blind_Squirrel

    CNBC AIG losses could top 60 bln

  • indusequities

    How many of you got into BBT? Nice run on that one too..

  • sum1

    Found similarity between NQ and EUR/USD chart.Doy you agree?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Not much of a reaction to the news AIG is going to report $60 Billion loss – largest corp loss in history – need more govt $$$$ or has to declare bankruptcy next week…….

  • Douala

    XLF barely flinched..

  • de3600

    Hey it's only money dont you know I have my tree getting planted in my backyard at noon tom

  • Keirsten

    Here's the reaction- not too impressive of a sell-off.

    http://tinyurl.com/cg9qtx

  • beer_to_whiz

    does 8> mean target of 8+? I guess AIG no concern…

  • Erikd
  • TomOfTheNorth

    The lack of reaction is amazing, even the manner in which this was reported, very blase – seems to me this establishes beyond doubt that all of these institutions are cash black holes. Guess I should just add to my TBT position, although I still think there's more flight to safety trade to come.

  • molecool

    See – I'm not completely useless. Eric has been calling it as well though.

  • standard_and_poor

    Just bought more BAC puts, will add later.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    hey de,

    I'll be by to prune it for you – just enough to add to my short…..

  • BalaB

    Blase indeed.
    but looks like there's more selling now

  • Insect Overlord

    I'm now short gold (/YG) at 993.2. Yes, the most recent candlestick is up off the daily pivot, but I've noticed that different charting programs plot different pivots. Strange. And /YG seems to react most favorably to the pivots on prophet, so I kinda took that into account. But note the hourly and 15m candles. Yes, the hourly is not done yet, but the most recent down candlestick on the 15m chart was the trigger to sell.

    http://screencast.com/t/TRhKMFlPY

  • TomOfTheNorth

    agreed – could be it's still percolating in though – we'll know in a few. I just can't fathom how you ignore this….

  • 96wolverine

    Uh oh, AIG just failed again. This partial nationalization thing hasn't been working very well…

  • Grtded

    I thought you would have had the sirens going off when this happened. 🙂

    I'm ashamed, feeding off your table scraps.

  • jigdaddy

    will you sell if we close below 7.40?

  • peterey

    thx

  • Erikd

    XLF retesting 7.40 level lets see if it is support now and gives us the slingshot upward into the close…
    strap in the rubberband is getting ready to spring…. 3pm hour is upon us….

  • de3600

    🙂

  • Grtded

    XLF @ 7.35 again

  • TomOfTheNorth

    What's the opposite of PPT? The market was getting ready to propel higher (I was thinking to cover shorts) and they deliver the AIG news at that precise moment?

  • jacksoo

    good morning S&P just joining the party: not quite how the day was planned – looks like it dropped from the go get. That'll teach us bears to show more respect 😉

  • BalaB

    Sold hedges. Delta NEg.

  • Keirsten

    The opposite of PPT is Geithner.

  • jigdaddy

    im flat now, profits have been eroded…stops in at low of days…i want to add but i'm a wus..

  • benji12

    this is sooooo frustrating. i'm not getting any chance to reload

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Thought Geithner is the opposite of brilliant lol

  • Keirsten

    That's not wussy at all- it's conservative and safe Jig.

  • de3600

    bulls getting in a state of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGLKXAJeASs&feat

  • jigdaddy

    thanks keirsten…any updates on the level 2 that is standing out?

  • MaxPainMan

    100% cash and happy

  • molecool

    Tell me about it.

  • Keirsten

    Still not jumping on the SPY down here.

  • standard_and_poor

    741 and 702.118 are next viable Spx targets.

  • HardTimes

    Two of us took the time to write posts to reassure you that it's OK and try to explain where we think Mole and many of the other big contributors are coming from but apparently we didn't make it clear?? I don't know why you're so offended by “leech”, it appears to be a running joke, only applied seriously when someone's being an ungrateful prick. I didn't hear anyone telling you not to read or participate!

  • El gAto

    Using this pullback to get some calls going in AZO.

  • jacksoo

    just logged on this morning but first impression is of a trend day lower – looks like it wants to test 740 – will you go short on a solid break? cld bounce i guess.

  • Erikd

    7.30 level, posted this earlier today..

  • rose2797

    Not posting comments again

  • Erikd

    lowest it could go is 734 for this wave down… i think the bottom was just put in…

  • Erikd

    BOTTOM IS IN….!! for today.

  • yazzer

    so, with XLF closing at 7.20, I guess the bounce theory is over?

  • Erikd

    we closed today for the first time below the daily trendline on XLF from nov lows to jan 20 lows on XLF. friday we crossed below it and ended above it, today was the first close below it. tomorrows close on XLF will without doubt will give the confirmation for the bears.. market is definitely pushing the envelope here. 50/50 on the direction going into tomorrow with a close below 7.40 today, i do not see the SPX moving below 734 level without a bounce.. XLF does have a weekly trendline underneath it that will keep the market from imploding IMV. i decided to stay long at the close and see what tomorrow is as we are in need of a relief bounce to say the least..

  • yazzer

    agree with your assessment – that's why I lightened up on my all-in short strategy today – cut about 50% of my shorts (by selling my BK and ZION puts and calendar-hedging my Jun Qs with the Marches)..still have HBC PUTs. Since my time horizon is longer-term, I won't do a whole lot more re-arranging at this point other than maybe to catch the overdue 'bounce' if/when she does hit. but, I'll take any hiccup to the upside as a chance to re-enter my all-in short position for the longer term…

  • Erikd

    nasdaq will bounce here shortly when AAPL hits the washout area. aapl will give the signal take a look
    AAPL http://screencast.com/t/shft7NZjR

  • http://acetraders.blogspot.com Nandu Konat

    Bought ANR @ 17.04. This may move into my investment account 🙂

  • de3600

    nice to be on the right side of skf for a change

  • standard_and_poor

    Have a trendline at 748, let's watch if it holds.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle
  • adrian_boy

    It's starting …

  • HungryNewt

    Absolutely Mole. Absolutely.

    I'm in RUT MARCH 430 CALLs @ 8.3

  • Insect Overlord

    mole…wtf…you have this supertrin and you don't even post it on your site with a live feed so I can leech off you some more? First you actually make me pay for something that you have put in an enormous amount of your freetime into, then you have this supertrin thing that you designed as well but don't make it available??? BULLSHIT.

  • HungryNewt

    lol

  • GoCougs

    Here comes the bounce…

  • standard_and_poor

    Taking small % of puts off table for higher reload here.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Hedging Shorts

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    When can I come over and wash your car?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I got that reference – LOL 🙂

  • Erikd

    re-post as per molecool and HungryNewt
    when we rally into the close and have 2 hammers in a row on the SPX and we rally up for the coming 5-8 days it will paralyze most to thinking that we pu in a bottom on the SPX… i will reshort at the top at the right time… we have started a new options cycle which means we will chop sideways overall in a range for the next 2 weeks, MM will be taking bets over the next 2 weeks, they will not show there hand in a big way until the last 2 weeks of the cycle.. this is a good BIAS to have whenever a new options cycle start…

  • HungryNewt

    I wouldn't draw that lower trend/channel line that way. If you use the lower tip on the first candle you should use the lower tip on the bottom/second candle. Same thing if you use the bodies… just my .02

  • standard_and_poor

    Closed off more puts here.

  • Enfinity

    What a piker…you're not going to send your wife?!

  • rhae

    DIA 9/11/2002 low was 71.80

  • HungryNewt

    …it's an art not a science. sometimes i'm more anal than I should be. 😉

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Thanks for the tip. I will keep that in mind. Cheers!!

  • http://acetraders.blogspot.com Nandu Konat

    I liked RBS here. But need a second opinion. RBS has a quick target of $11.00..

    Share your thoughts.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Bought SZCCY SPY MAR 2009 $77 calls @ $3.10, again! : http://tinyurl.com/ba5v4v

  • Insect Overlord

    I just bought QLD calls…here are the details…

    http://screencast.com/t/u22a0HeuTHH

  • standard_and_poor

    Watching FAZ, may add to “long term” position today , not a day or short term trade.

  • denali92

    We will get down days until there is capitulation. Without capitulation of all the bulls, it is going to be this painful, slow downtrade that tortures us all, as it does not seem wise to be short and longs, even scalping longs are rarely rewarded unless you know when the PPT will arrive. Best guess is that this afternoon, overnight and in to tomorrow's open, we start to get the despair that is needed. Looks like we might have had that scalp at 1pm, but it should fade when ES hits 756 to 758.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i'd love a 5-6 day rally, we need this mornings sell off to achieve that. i'm stupid long now, let's go

  • tom riles

    Looks tome like that super trin is peaking like it did before past declines

  • Insect Overlord

    We're in different markets but similar trades. Good to see when other people are thinking alike. 🙂

  • HungryNewt

    I still agree Erikd. I'm still playing off of these charts which I posted late last week.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/bqGViT4F DIA
    http://www.screencast.com/t/UNtWJrFmu SPY
    http://www.screencast.com/t/DLVlBWFwQic QQQQ
    http://www.screencast.com/t/DcgzvJT5Ii IWM

  • rhae

    A Patriotic Bump? 9/11

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    SOLD WFC JUL 09 10 PUT @3.20

    8.48% Return 🙂

  • Insect Overlord

    volume too thinly traded for my tastes.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    It's up over 100% from the Jan low and you're projecting a climb of over 80% from here. That's pretty bold for the C of the UK.

  • standard_and_poor

    In my Monday roadmap my targets of 753-750 have been met, if anyone wants to go long here for short
    term now may be the time as intraday risks have lessened. Be careful and use stops.
    P.S. We' re still on schedule for 668.25 SPX.
    Good day guys, I'll chime in if conditions warrant. Here is same monday roadmap
    http://www.screencast.com/t/tM0ULMcxx
    P.S. Here's a great danceable tune for my fellow rats called “God's Cop”, dig it.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2tsJPSJyH0

  • Erikd

    HungryNewt has the range for the next 5-10 trading range… nice easy read….

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    atta boy!

  • Erikd

    when we crack thru 7.40 on the XLF you will get your wish…

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    Actually i just need to remove the upper channel. lower line is correct.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Barack Obama – Fiscal Conservative

  • fuzzygreysocks
  • Erikd

    i can see it now that the bulltards will say that the bottom is in now after the next few days action….

  • Keirsten

    Agree with the comments below- not sure about that black candle it posted today. Meanwhile you'll probably make $$$ on it. LOL

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    HIGH FIVE

  • poopsquad

    Mole – what do you do to 'normalize' the TRIN to superTRIN ?

  • http://centrifugaldeforest.blogspot.com/ Centrifugal_Deforest

    If this gap was going to carry all the way to 11, that would strongly suggest 2me it would be above the open-price right now; but far from the case

  • Publius Federali

    SP, remember that these leveraged negatives are not good long term plays because the way they are structured, much better for day or short term trend trade.

  • Keirsten

    I can't tell you how many traders I spoke to over the weekend who were already calling the bottom here, and some are very seasoned. Aye yi yi.

  • Newbeeeeee

    Just wanted to say I appreciate what you do on the Blog. I've only been reading occasionally over the last few weeks, so I'm new here.

    I could probably pay for and appreciate the Zero too, if I know how to use it usefully, but as a trader who is inexperienced, it's still a bit of a mystery to me. Hopefully, I'll start to get it one day. So for now I won't be subscribing, I would not be using it.

    Do you mind if people read the Blog, without subscribing? I just try to follow the psychology and general types of strategies, I do not follow or mirror anyone's trades. Do you call that leeching?

    Honestly, I am just trying to learn to trade more markets in a more professional fashion. I can just go away if you want. I just get the feeling newbies aren't really welcome here, just my impression.

    First and last comment, Don't want to waste anyone's time.

  • peterey

    Erikd, do u use “log” charts?

  • fuzzygreysocks

    $CPCE getting “call-y” – http://cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

  • Cross

    Thanks for that tip. Is there any rule of thumb you use to decide whether to draw trendlines on bodies or wicks?

  • Erikd

    when does FNM and FRE report?

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Just increased my position in CY.

    Did you get QAVCCs or CDs?

  • Vardoger

    VIX up against resistance from 2/2, 2/17, 2/20 trendline. Scaling into UWM calls but still want to see us actually test the bottom. FED might get it done tomorrow. Mostly flat and bored. Please bounce.

  • HardTimes

    I've found it's not TOO bad holding FAZ in a downtrend; I held it from mid December to mid January and made money on it (not the best trade but a learning experience). These are definitely one place where the “trend is your friend” and keeps you from getting slaughtered.

  • Insect Overlord

    Approaching 50% fib retracement on VIX…

    http://screencast.com/t/3mvHqtHS2

  • Publius Federali

    Let me help you with that, they report every day that they are completely insolvent and losing tons of money that we the tax payer will have to cover. Then four times a year they report fantastic news and numbers. The later report is today I believe.

  • Keirsten

    Must be happening fairly soon- both reported last in mid Nov.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    “Let me help you with that, they report every day that they are completely insolvent”
    LOL

  • HungryNewt

    I think that everyone's welcome as long as they are respectful and try to give back to the community here. What's not appreciated is people expecting Mole or others here to give away their hard work. This is a free blog so no expectations should be placed on the host/community.

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    bulls become bulltards, as;

    bears become beartards.

    and around around we go.

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    can you believe those guys? the insanity at calling for a market bottom after a 50% decline!

    thats like calling for another 50% decline after a 50% decline.

    crazy stuff.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    I called them this morning, they have not called back. reached aig, they have not scheduled, must report by 60 days after 12/31. i think they will run down the clock
    all 3 are overdue, not a good sign

  • bergs

    Erikd
    You still holding your XLF calls?

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    HIGH FIVE

    I'm still short – looking for new lows – big new lows

  • Insect Overlord

    FNM due to report on 2 March before the open (unconfirmed)

  • aleatoric

    Do you guys know a good website to check futures quotes? I'm at work and I can't access TOS :-p

  • HardTimes

    Here is the impression I have gotten as a newb. Mole is highly experienced and skilled and is looking to attract others like him to bounce ideas back and forth with so he can improve his trading. I recognize this and keep my comments to a minimum except where I think they're helpful. However, I have never been made to feel unwelcome. It's people the generally act unappreciative or demanding that annoy everyone. Contrarian views seem to be welcome except when they seem to be trolling or otherwise stir up emotions. Mole has stated numerous times in months prior that charging for the Zero indicator will have no influence on the use or participation in his blog. The “leeching” reference I think is _partially_ tongue in cheek, part of Mole's “edgy” style.

    Anybody correct me if I'm wrong…

  • Blind_Squirrel

    called again freddie 3/2 fannie still no date looks like they want towait for last day allowed by law.

  • http://www.tradingsign.com/ T. Waffle

    I am long for now. Minimum expectation on SPX is 803

  • jigdaddy

    yes he is long..

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    The luncheon countertrend rally has concluded – down trend resumes

  • http://www.ryanbarr.com Covered (kzhat)
  • http://www.ryanbarr.com Covered (kzhat)

    my reply to you didn't go through properly, sorry for the repost. this is a good site to use: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures

  • el gatO

    FSYS continues to press lower…….rolling down stops.
    GG is flashing a sell signal. stop over 32.5
    ESI bearish engulfing pattern. looks like a dead cat bounce. I can't see this regaining its upside mojo

    The US dollar appears ready for a tumble in the intermediate term. Golds rally and convergence the dollar has now been accounted for. Time for a disconnect?? I believe gold has accounted for re inflation. The dollar turning down here would confirm the thesis IMO.

  • lester

    Erikd, I thought you were long today, or is that just a daytrade? Still long XLF and SPY Calls
    TIA

  • El gAto

    This confirms Mole bear trap theory I believe. BKX/ XBD/ and SOX which showed leaderships last few days appears ready to confirm

  • aleatoric

    Thanks!

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    creeping doubt on short position as financials look fairly strong – but will stay the course

  • Erikd

    i am long right now but probably not in 5-10 days.. will post the next move when we get there, will let the market do her thing…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    aapl reaching the target zone, i was filled at 87.59

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Mole,

    hmmmm…..Lower Zero signal broke through a 100% RL (even after allowable tolerance applied of +/-3pts on both Cash & Futures).

  • http://acetraders.blogspot.com Nandu Konat

    C would be an interesting one to watch.. Long from Friday with an average price of 1.82

  • El gAto

    watching HD closely as a “tell”. The bulls might try and spin this tomorrow..

    Looking to add to DECK calls

  • de3600

    closed skf for 23 percent gain short now

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    erikd (man) your predictions are getting scary good, AAPL as you said turned where you said and we're heading north, nice job dude!

  • Squidman

    Noticed that also–maybe because lower RL is higher percent today?

  • http://www.ryanbarr.com Covered (kzhat)

    /NQ and /ES appear to be hammering out a daily bottom, and are in the process of breaking higher. This may be the bear trap run up starting right about now.

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    Alpha, I agree, he is getting to be MM good. I jumped into XLF at 7.25.

  • Insect Overlord

    this is the part of pivots that I hate…it seems like every time there's a reversal brewing, it reverses right to a pivot. Everything about this chart, to me, says “sell” except that fucking pivot, which is always there it seems.

    http://screencast.com/t/epJy1qFdUBn

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    I forgot to say, Erikd thanks for offering up your keen insights.

  • Erikd

    can you confirm that? need to know

  • jigdaddy

    hats off once again…gracias amigo!!

  • http://tradingperspective.blogspot.com perspective

    mole – one of your gifts is spotting the bear trap. very nicely done.

    i think it could fail though in another hour.

  • Erikd

    XLF is above 7.40 level now and nobody told me, i posted this level earlier to watch to time the rally… 8>)

  • Newbeeeeee

    Well I see the word “leech” being used a lot around here. I guess I am one, sort of. Don't want to cost Mole data transfer charges and clog up the bandwidth.

    I won't be back. Mole can verify that from my IP address.

    Good luck.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    AIG NEWS – BAIL

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    hmmm…unless another RL came out showing different odds, I still see
    100% at 755 (carry over from last week) this is not to say we can't go
    down more but usually we get a nice bounce on those odds

  • Blind_Squirrel

    CNBC AIG losses could top 60 bln

  • http://acetraders.blogspot.com Nandu Konat

    How many of you got into BBT? Nice run on that one too..

  • sum1

    Found similarity between NQ and EUR/USD chart.Doy you agree?

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Not much of a reaction to the news AIG is going to report $60 Billion loss – largest corp loss in history – need more govt $$$$ or has to declare bankruptcy next week…….

  • Publius Federali

    Just typed them into TD and they both say Feb 23rd but judging from input around here perhaps they are delaying.

  • Douala

    XLF barely flinched..

  • de3600

    Hey it's only money dont you know I have my tree getting planted in my backyard at noon tom

  • Keirsten

    Here's the reaction- not too impressive of a sell-off.

    http://tinyurl.com/cg9qtx

  • lester

    does 8> mean target of 8+? I guess AIG no concern…

  • Erikd
  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    The lack of reaction is amazing, even the manner in which this was reported, very blase – seems to me this establishes beyond doubt that all of these institutions are cash black holes. Guess I should just add to my TBT position, although I still think there's more flight to safety trade to come.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See – I'm not completely useless. Eric has been calling it as well though.

  • standard_and_poor

    Just bought more BAC puts, will add later.

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    hey de,

    I'll be by to prune it for you – just enough to add to my short…..

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Blase indeed. I could have sworn I heard out of the corner of my ear the woman host talking not knowing her mic was on. she uttered something like “gasp. Uh. Look at how volatile”
    but looks like there's more selling now

  • Insect Overlord

    I'm now short gold (/YG) at 993.2. Yes, the most recent candlestick is up off the daily pivot, but I've noticed that different charting programs plot different pivots. Strange. And /YG seems to react most favorably to the pivots on prophet, so I kinda took that into account. But note the hourly and 15m candles. Yes, the hourly is not done yet, but the most recent down candlestick on the 15m chart was the trigger to sell.

    http://screencast.com/t/TRhKMFlPY

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    agreed – could be it's still percolating in though – we'll know in a few. I just can't fathom how you ignore this….

  • 96wolverine

    Uh oh, AIG just failed again. This partial nationalization thing hasn't been working very well…

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    I thought you would have had the sirens going off when this happened. 🙂

    I'm ashamed, feeding off your table scraps.

  • jigdaddy

    will you sell if we close below 7.40?

  • peterey

    thx

  • Erikd

    XLF retesting 7.40 level lets see if it is support now and gives us the slingshot upward into the close…
    strap in the rubberband is getting ready to spring…. 3pm hour is upon us….

  • de3600

    🙂

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    XLF @ 7.35 again

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    What's the opposite of PPT? The market was getting ready to propel higher (I was thinking to cover shorts) and they deliver the AIG news at that precise moment?

  • jacksoo

    good morning S&P just joining the party: not quite how the day was planned – looks like it dropped from the go get. That'll teach us bears to show more respect 😉

  • Keirsten

    They've probed the '02 lows here now on INDU.

  • http://implicittrading.blogspot.com/ BalaB

    Sold hedges. Delta NEg.

  • Keirsten

    The opposite of PPT is Geithner.

  • jigdaddy

    im flat now, profits have been eroded…stops in at low of days…i want to add but i'm a wus..

  • benji12

    this is sooooo frustrating. i'm not getting any chance to reload

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Thought Geithner is the opposite of brilliant lol

  • Keirsten

    That's not wussy at all- it's conservative and safe Jig.

  • de3600

    bulls getting in a state of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGLKXAJeASs&feat

  • jigdaddy

    thanks keirsten…any updates on the level 2 that is standing out?

  • MaxPainMan

    100% cash and happy

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    NEW POST!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Tell me about it.

  • Chi-Town Deadhead

    I'm seeing 7.25 bids coming in.

  • Keirsten

    Still not jumping on the SPY down here.

  • standard_and_poor

    741 and 702.118 are next viable Spx targets.

  • HardTimes

    Two of us took the time to write posts to reassure you that it's OK and try to explain where we think Mole and many of the other big contributors are coming from but apparently we didn't make it clear?? I don't know why you're so offended by “leech”, it appears to be a running joke, only applied seriously when someone's being an ungrateful prick. I didn't hear anyone telling you not to read or participate!

  • El gAto

    Using this pullback to get some calls going in AZO.

  • jacksoo

    just logged on this morning but first impression is of a trend day lower – looks like it wants to test 740 – will you go short on a solid break? cld bounce i guess.

  • Erikd

    7.30 level, posted this earlier today..

  • rose2797

    Not posting comments again

  • Erikd

    lowest it could go is 734 for this wave down… i think the bottom was just put in…

  • Erikd

    BOTTOM IS IN….!! for today.

  • yazzer

    so, with XLF closing at 7.20, I guess the bounce theory is over?

  • Erikd

    we closed today for the first time below the daily trendline on XLF from nov lows to jan 20 lows on XLF. friday we crossed below it and ended above it, today was the first close below it. tomorrows close on XLF will without doubt will give the confirmation for the bears.. market is definitely pushing the envelope here. 50/50 on the direction going into tomorrow with a close below 7.40 today, i do not see the SPX moving below 734 level without a bounce.. XLF does have a weekly trendline underneath it that will keep the market from imploding IMV. i decided to stay long at the close and see what tomorrow is as we are in need of a relief bounce to say the least..

  • yazzer

    agree with your assessment – that's why I lightened up on my all-in short strategy today – cut about 50% of my shorts (by selling my BK and ZION puts and calendar-hedging my Jun Qs with the Marches)..still have HBC PUTs. Since my time horizon is longer-term, I won't do a whole lot more re-arranging at this point other than maybe to catch the overdue 'bounce' if/when she does hit. but, I'll take any hiccup to the upside as a chance to re-enter my all-in short position for the longer term…