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Off To Slovenia
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Off To Slovenia

by The MoleMay 17, 2019

This is going to be a quick post as we’re still in the mist of packing and are scheduled to hitch a plane for Trieste, Italy in a few hours. From there we’ll be renting a car and then head into beautiful Slovenia for a weekend stint at Lake Bled (shown above). Honestly I wish the weather would be as nice as in the picture but just like earlier this year in France we’re out of luck in the weather department as the forecast shows almost continuous rain for the next week.

A bout of rain isn’t too unusual for that region in May but by all definitions it has been a long winter over here in Europe as a true stretch of spring keeps evading us. In Southern Austria – where we’ll be heading next Monday – authorities just re-opened the ski-lifts at a local resort. Not a common occurrence just two weeks before June, that’s for sure.

Now we’re not made of sugar but I’m more concerned about running into icy or snowy street conditions as it’s been a long time since I had to drive in weather like that. Having been raised in Austria I can handle the occasional rain storm but the weather in Europe has been completely erratic in the past few months and I’m not really looking forward to driving in such conditions.

Speaking of volatile conditions – the E-Mini is still running in circles although there now appears to be a sincere attempt to break the previous series of lower highs and lower lows. But once again overnight price action has reversed almost all upside progress produced during yesterday’s session.

I’m still long here since my early morning entry yesterday – but only barely as my trailing stop at break/even isn’t too far from where price has descended to overnight. And quite honestly I am not really too worried about it as attempting to catch a campaign within this level of intra-day volatility doesn’t exactly have high odds of succeeding.

Plus obviously I’m going on a much needed vacation and promised my wife to not look at any charts during my absence. I’m not going to fight her on that one as I’ve really been feeling the pinch lately on the health front for a number of reasons I have already shared and don’t feel the need to regurgitate again.

Vacation Schedule

Unbeknownst to me I actually timed my travel plans pretty well as Monday the 27th just so happens to be Memorial Day, which means that most of you will probably take Friday (the 24th) off. And that leaves only four trading days – Monday through Thursday.

  • On Monday (20th) I may chime in here briefly.
  • On Tuesday (21st) Tony is planning to cover trading option spreads in preparation of a pertinent video series he’s been working on (soon to be released at redpillquants.com)
  • On Wednesday (22nd) our resident contributor BobbyLow has volunteered to put up a post. Thanks buddy – we are looking forward to that one (no pressure).
  • Thursday (23rd) I may again pop in my head, depending on whether Tony wants to do a second post.
  • Friday (24th) we’ll skip as markets will probably run on cruise control while most participants are heading into the long weekend.
  • Monday (27th) is Memorial Day and that happens to be the day of my return.
  • Tuesday (28th) I’m back at the helm at Evil Speculator – hopefully with batteries full recharged and ready to pursue new devious shenanigans.

As usual the Zero as well as all trading systems will continue to run as normal. My VPS hosting firm has scheduled some kind of maintenance on Monday around 9:00am for only God knows what reason. I’ve bitched at them but they assure me that the system should run normally without interruption. Let’s hope they are right.

If there are any technical issues then please email me here and I’ll do my best to respond within a 24- hour period. But remember that my Internet access will most likely be slow and unreliable, so as always I appreciate your patience if things happen to hit a glitch.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • zzezzezz

    Thank you for the post. Have a great time, sir!

  • mSquare

    Have a great vacation.

    Loading up on shorts and hoping this vacation it will not be any different ):-

  • Mark Shinnick

    Wow…your vacation timing strikes again; Dead Nuts. My shorts since vol objective yesterday doing quite well.

  • HD

    Not a bad month so far πŸ™‚ squeeze meter diverged yesterday right at symmetry, late day sell, and got the follow thru gap. almost 40 handles in a few hours.

    see what else sets up as IPA and donuts are already out.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok…beginning to get some correlations with some drv long signaling, HY still having some troubles.

  • Dyellowflash

    I am still on the short side. Maybe waiting to enter more.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now’s a good time while the inflection is still close and stops can be tight.

  • zzezzezz

    I’m long and nervous. I’m sure we’ll BOTH get screwed somehow…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Right on…let’s not also screw ourselves too.

  • Darkthirty
  • Dyellowflash

    I got this strange theory that whatever Mole’s magic formulae is for the Zero, it runs on the ES and hence it works better for the pre-market than US stock mkt hrs.

  • Dyellowflash

    It looks like a contracting triangle. Then it might burn both ways by making a feint pop/dip and reverse. But I will short as I said I will. To pay it slightly safe, I am now 30% short and I split it out among all 3 indexes. Just like yesterday. Dow and SnP jumped through my SLs, Rusell shorts held and I still make some overall when I closed 90% of my Rusells when Stock exchange closed on Thur.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    NSFW
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhytUz2Hc6o
    This Market is a crime, wheels up in 30!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Not seeing the needed shortside momo in this area of inflection…

  • zzezzezz

    however, no signal above 0 on the Zero either….

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    It doesn’t work when ES is open but regular trading is not, like during some holidays. Can’t be based on after hours secret sauce.

  • zzezzezz

    moving stop up (just a little…)

  • zzezzezz

    Also, it seems to require “normal” (not low) volume to function properly

  • BobbyLow

    But well above VWAP. I’m long with you. I didn’t open my platform until just before 10 AM and I should have been long at 2861. I went to put my order in and thought about it for about 30 Seconds and during that time price moved up 3.75 Points and I got filled at 2864.75. Most of the time just pull the damn trigger. πŸ™‚

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…this is a really great place to be with finger on wise triggers.

  • Mark Shinnick

    goro, new lows since 2016.

  • Darkthirty

    HWB to 2960 symmetry says 2753

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Wife says to me at 9:26, “My timing sucks, but breakfast is ready.” I went to eat instead of pulling the trigger on the order I had queued up at 54. lol

    Biggest problem I have is not pulling the f’n trigger. Fear of loss. At least I’ve identified the problem.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Great to do that. Fear is far more fundamental than any life area we can more-easily pinpoint, as you have here. Digging-out Fear’s roots then manifests in all of life’s other areas.

  • zzezzezz

    sold @ 2878
    +18 handles banked

  • zzezzezz

    short /ES @ 2880

  • BobbyLow

    Severe Body Blows delivered by the market caused me to have a tremendous fear of loss. I’ve been fighting this fear for years. A little fear is good to keep me from doing something stupid but too much fear can still cause too much hesitation and mess up execution. A predesigned system that tells you when to enter and exit helps.

  • BobbyLow

    Nice one Z

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yes indeed. Need to get this flip house finished and sold, and that will free up some time to better define the system. I’m liking MES, as it really minimizes the risk, yet tracks and fills like ES.

  • Mark Shinnick

    uslv , a 3x, is more resilient.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    perhaps I was a bit mean. Take a good hard look at 2015, and ask yourself?
    “Do I feel lucky?”

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GORO&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09430060795

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, there now a developing setup for some additional vol crush, not yet triggered; this is still good inflection area.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you have nearly 3 years of overhead, above 3.50?
    is it about to rain? are you going to get wet?

  • BobbyLow

    Put on a 10 Point Trail. This way I’m assured +12 Points but maybe it runs – maybe not.

    Regardless I’ll be out before the COB one way or another.

  • Sp00nman

    I think I have the “main ingredients” figured out what the zero is (it’s not that hard to tell imo), but the exact formula I haven’t tried to really nail down.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, $ been holding up very well for some time now, and no robust buy signalling in the sector, but a expected washout is according to plan.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    You must use loose stops?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    expected washout, so true. Just remember a drop from $3.00 to $2.00 is 33% loss.
    play with fire, get stupid prizes.
    πŸ˜‰

  • zzezzezz

    initially, yes. current stop @ 2890

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yeah, that’s pretty wide. I’m usually at 5 points to start.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya, I am trying to develop a system myself but it’s going to take some time. Do you mind sharing how you backtest your system(s)?

  • Darkthirty
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Stairway to Heaven?

  • Sp00nman

    Ya MES definitely looks good. AH liquidity looks to be worse, but at least if you need to get out you should still get a decent fill.

  • Mark Shinnick

    The meltup crowd is still voicing.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, Gartman doesn’t HELP.

  • Darkthirty

    Buggered the trendline on the 15th, should be 73 degrees. The question is 2920 close?

  • zzezzezz

    I wonder if it takes the VIX into consideration? (in addition to UVOL/DVOL)

  • zzezzezz

    hah! i was thinking 2920 as well. but i was hoping for a RAMP UP overnight instead of the meltdown that happened….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    2921, it’s a good number. (I plugged SPX, into my DOW chart)
    you realize that would be one HELL of a candle?
    RSI 50 must fail.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b83e931780e402a4e3c9f1cc7a9406634f21f3460903b64b2b5f4eac4ac7b0d.png

  • Dyellowflash

    u shld consider shorting the rusells, its the weakest of the 4 indexes these few days.

  • Dyellowflash
  • Sp00nman

    Ya could be, and NYSE TICK. I’ve noticed the zero divergences tend to work much better to the upside than downside, and perhaps that’s also a reflection of the nature of the market (having an upward bias).

  • Darkthirty

    Have to rally or SEC would bust him for “spoofing the market”

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BobbyLow

    Stopped 2877.5 +12.75 Points

  • zzezzezz

    covered @ 2875
    +5 handles banked

  • zzezzezz

    thanks. and just banked +5 handles shorting from 2880 – 2875.
    time to go long?

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BobbyLow

    Sure. You probably have a certain way you like to trade already. If not, you probably need to figure out what kind of trader you want to be. Day Trader? Short Term Swing or Medium Term Swing. The next thing is what time frame on your charts do you like to trade? Under 1 Hour, Hourly, 2 Hours, 3 Hours etc. Next it’s trial and error in an attempt to maximize your performance using a format and risk tolerance that fits your personality. The trial and error begins with a series of what ifs and what are the best chart parameters that are a fit for you. What I do is to back test these assimulated trades as far back as I can. I use paper and pencil to do this because it allows me to get a feel for each trade.

    I’m probably going to write a little about this on my post and I think that Mole is going to do a few posts on this matter. In any event this is something that is worthwhile doing.

  • BobbyLow

    /MES has excellent volume during the day and tracks identically with /ES. Depending on the time of night there might be a slight difference in A/H maybe .25 but all and all I’m finding /MES very easy to trade.

  • zzezzezz

    back to short @ /ES 2875 (stop set at 2881)

  • BobbyLow

    BTW, I couldn’t answer your question from down below because I think you’re using different factors to trigger your trades than I am so some times we’re in sync and other times not. My triggers are also probably a little bit slower than yours.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    hey, silver’s on SALE. (snort)
    GM.

  • zzezzezz

    /ES 2850 at the close? πŸ™‚

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    A fire sale GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not sure. but most likely I will be in the Dentist chair.
    LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ha. You should run down to TIF
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TIF&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79469970129

    and get some platinum.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    1 crust, 1 crow

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    yikes! good luck

  • Mark Shinnick

    Really amazing and adaptive. In Walnut Acres, Woodland Hills, they drop walnuts in well-predicted path of the cars tires below the telephone wires they wait upon.

  • Darkthirty
  • Darkthirty

    Symmetry says 2725

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Silver miners at a level to outperform $SILVER.(SLV) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e2b487b1b72350cde5a488327a7302939b68905e37affbed999e11f8a7ec7d9.png When that occurs GG “The Turn Of The Worm”
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Silver is like sweaters after Christmas!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Getting ready to re short BAC The gap and 55 ema strong resistance Unable to close above it’s declining 5 ema 28 support JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Buy the Dip
    yeah, lots of fun. We often joke about it.
    But do you know a dip? Have you defined your own personal dip?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d862db7e2ef9098bf732ab617573cffd9e72e899cbc75c348cb2ec7cf2df64bc.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Off to the Dentist!

  • BKXtoZERO

    I hope Mole avoids dentists on this vacation

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    #MeToo

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Alex .. I will take “Mole going to the dentist” for ???.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I do not have the exact stats but Monday following OPEX is usually down
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Initial target for short approx 26.50 confluence of support and fib fan line. Will post when I pull trigger JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ccc21bf3b7962cfb02ecd1af2b643b2a0d8a50de54cfd4106b2ba4eae27097db.png

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks BL. Ya I’ve thought a lot about all those things. I was just curious if you automated the backtesting. I look forward to your post.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY Unable to make a higher high on declining volume Not shown is 61.8% retracement which is high on bounce RSI going to stop bounce @ 50? Strong possibility. SPY loses it’s 55 ema next week perhaps Monday https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cb0f936eb5f17d253bafaf390715cb65f5787253c7083d191765de740691796e.png will enliven the Bears JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Should this resolve for bulls, idra seems poised.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV When it bounces and RSI(7) goes to 70 and price hit’s top of bollinger band (13,2) An unbelievable rally will occur Julie slowly accumulating like the big boys JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/236f5f22c99805810752c8bc18b8ededbf43f2a73036730cee56220c63927a11.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am tempted by metals, but gold has some toppy candles and right at the failed break over trend line, historically this has been a sign to stay away a while. Silver outside of the BBs which has been at least a short term buy point in the past…. confused so staying away for now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’m back! traffic was light. no fillings.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I understand BK I am slowly accumulating for a longer term trade Have mucho patience like “Warren”
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I was entertaining the thought that you would not be able to talk ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    veterinarian dentist?

  • BKXtoZERO

    I get that, I just don’t have enough that I want to tie up long term away from trading capital to churn

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    of course. Horse docs are much cheaper!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY 60 min chart going below a trend line will also go below VWAP and SPY 21 ema JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5a92de5ddb57b12df95ca32846f6edc247cc3bd63f5496eb1c16868dd6758fd.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Clarification middle trend line is a parallel channel drawn Busting the lower trend line will coincide going below the cloud – BEARISH
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    2:00…….. Unpossible!

  • zzezzezz

    Inconceivable!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Here is SPX matching SPY chart above. I use both SPX and SPY as SPX does not show volume and VWAP on platform and SPY does https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2597a928761de4038441eb58705708ba690ecd35b3698faa5b173ba88899298a.png JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Yeah…That’s the ticket

  • BKXtoZERO

    Horse Docs don’t treat Gerbils

  • BobbyLow

    Although I think it might be possible to code a program to do back testing, I don’t think it would have the same effect as back testing by hand unless you coded a program to do the actual trading as well. This is because trading in test mode and live trading has an obviously much different feel to it because live trading is real money that comes with emotion. I had one person tell me I’ll put the numbers into Google Sheets or Excell to which I answered I think it’s faster to enter the numbers on a pad of lined paper. I think Scott Phillips still does his by hand and he’s a hell of a lot more proficient in computer programing and trading than I am.

    BTW, on my last back test for my current day trading program, it took me about 12 Hours to back test 308 trades with entries, exits and net results transfered to Average Positive Expectency in money terms and in R Terms. I’ve done a lot of back testing so I can do it relatively fast now. But even if it took me twice as long like 24 Hours to back test this one, it doesn’t seem like a large investment of time to come up with something that’s reasonably accurate and that I can depend on.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY 60 min chart NOW busting down thru lower trend line of parallel channel drawn ; 60 min 21 ema and VWAP Goes below 285.13 pattern will be lower highs and lower lows from the bounce achieving 61.8% retracement Go Bears ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/51e95c7d94b180e3e08988fc039eb375491c3088dd1f3cc48931965c130b70ba.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Hail the Mole vacation!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    really? Dam! that would explain a lot.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Selling volume SPY picking up Anyone notice a selling pattern — On bounce from May 13 low selling comes in last hour ! Not Good !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie Loving her longer term short SH !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    GG nibbled some QID before the Doc. (shhhhh, hunting wabbit)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX GG RSI (9) did not get above RSI (30) on bounce — $NYSI not going above it’s 10 sma — Failing at the declining 21 ema — Declining volume on bounce House of cards a crumbling down Humpty Dumpty O ‘ Roaking !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Need to know if he landed or just took off

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief You are now on vacation .. If and when you check in next week it had better not be for long ! Mrs. Mole wants Mr.Mole at her side and not on a phone or in front of a computer. Remember we are in good hands with BL at the helm !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    In TVIX tiny at 24..tiny at 23…heavier today at 22. Holding

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One word SPY — SELLLLLING !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Everyone Have A Great Weekend !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    PPT better start singing the lego song, or this could get interesting…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • zzezzezz

    Covered at 2862
    Banked +13 handles
    100% cash

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Nice play QID Double bounce close to it’s 21 ema with 5 ema above 21 ema Seven closes above it’s 21 ema Bullish with 3 closes above 21 ema ….21 ema uptrending Nice breakout of bullish falling wedge pattern Good Catch GG ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a1b6645dec119fd63d104b6ada9a8dfae74247cc9c457919fea774a95b21cbd.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPY 60 min chart .. Checkout SPY selling volume last hour The selling is not capitulation selling But selling initiation Very bearish going below lower trend line and 60 min cloud next week JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    S&P bulls crushed. SKYNET will be victorious.
    I only thank that our Founder, Mole Conner was not here.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ih_l0vBISOE

  • zzezzezz

    Nice!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    INTC,
    I’ve said it was a technical buy. but for the newbs. this is a great example of an RSI embedding.
    look left? I say, look lower!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fb22a42795464df392c731fdd083a6d8df28fd2163173ea6c588ac5108ac5ec.png
    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is a pretty creepy setup. I’ve never seen one similar with truly power keg storage of energy to make any long, or short, pretty damm nervous and not want to be on the bus.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thnx. pullback to 21, nibble. If the setup works, 35 will be crossed (nibble again),
    and off to the races. RSI 90, Muwahahaha. at least that’s the plan.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I invert $VIX to track the $SPX Again when you get a buy signal it MUST go above both 10 ema and 20 sma It has not yet gone above the 20 sma JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5609a21d83747dbe02f994cab594d441e2dd9b4c9214e9be050d497729d43ece.png ;

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that downdraft Dec 1, that was quick. from what I remember.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oh GG INTC down to weekly “Holy Grail” and support. Also weekly RSI @ approx 40 which is support in a bull mkt. INTC oversold STOCHS JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c16845f2cbe0aed2b5822c8a2df0bdffbfe4e034b88450e65566947187e2ca3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I would not buy INTC esp. with market in correction.It could go down to approx 144 ema close to a support or even lower to approx support @ 36. Let’s look for a consolidation on daily chart at present level. Monitoring presently is a must If INTC continues to drop and weekly RSI goes below 33.33 that will place INTC in Bear territory Oversold can become more oversold JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/47c94db1ce2b8e36b651d6ba2065aab36e936bf20003ebfa4271a6877723f1a5.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yes, excellent. Grizz has trained you well.

    I’m watching the 89, for a shorting campaign.
    It’s time for the old dinosaur company to be broken up and sold-off.
    IMHO, ARM will take over, eventually.
    “Intel right now has only a few years of lead before the ARM completely takes over.”
    https://fossbytes.com/cpu-comparison-x86-arm-cpu-benchmark/

    I will have my vengeance, in this life or the NEXT!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG We went out for dinner tonight Yes GG “Vengeance is mine sayeth GG and Julie” on the “Big Evil Empire” The Banks are in trouble GG esp with DB hitting an all time low.It’s going to be curtains when $XLFADP (cumulative) dumps below support and lower trend line.Already busted it’s 8 ema If you look closely you can see the negative divergences RSI and MACD presaging the present decline GG I had the day off and traded ES last night and picked up a few. I started approx 11.22 p.m. our time last night. 2868 was important support on the 30 min and traded on the 5 min I posted charts last night previous thread. It was fun but going to stick to stocks and indices. GG Showing $XLFADP daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6557310db708feb8b3156364b24ac4e454489215fc2443528f0bb7eeb3ccae37.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG XLF has been under performing $SPX for a long time That is why I have been nailing BAC short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c14453529d95d3a835aec0e88576e11bf441fa9ac971624e58a0f0facbddc0b3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG INTC Daily chart could get an oversold bounce to short in lieu of a further drop.As you can see the STOCHS are embedded like your RSI on your chart. Also you can see the topping tails on several candles totally rejecting the 5 ema. After a severe gap down I pointed out never make a move as it will flounder for about 5 -6 trading days as the institutions are evaluating. GG Can you believe the BULLS that have been trapped between the two gaps.They have completely crapped their panties ! OK the PMO is decelerating which is a heads up. If it bottoms i.e.turns flat that is a long signal BUT it must 1st get above it’s 5 ema. GG If this occurs the trend is down not up and the best option is not to go long BUT to short the bounce to a lower high. NOW the gap window matches the declining 21 ema and we monitor volume and momentum on a dead cat bounce. Another RSI fact insert RSI (4) and basically no movement in RSI (4) means the picture is not good and something else is transpiring The 1st gap down unable to break above it’s 5 ema GG Like you I totally despise the “Evil Empire” and we will short the “POOP” out of em ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3249bc582fbfb7f71110744f3d5aa1dba18cd9c49a93f4a2c08771469afdfa62.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Below is a chart showing XLF:$SPX relative strength ratio showing the under performance of the Banks to $SPX going back a year.”POOP” on the “Banks
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG INTC Found a lower trend line support on the weekly chart going back 5 years JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all worth watching. but be careful. I remember Banks being saved. I remember Draghi saying:

    https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-within-our-mandate-the-ecb-is-ready-to-do-whatever-it-takes-to-preserve-the-euro-and-mario-draghi-98-2-0216.jpg

    sometimes the obvious is just a smokescreen, and will not profit the little guy. Because the little guy can’t cheat.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    an oldie worth re-reading.

    https://evilspeculator.com/guide-on-raw-edge-discovery/

    also, a nice little video on surviorship bias
    think differently rats.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID3FwA_4xTs

  • zzezzezz

    Thinking of grabbing a long on British Pound /6B in the very near term…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys & GG INDA (India ETF) All trend lines are legitimate Should be one more leg down to complete an impulse.Targets 31.50 and 32.50 Then a corrective bounce Notice the triple negative divergences RSI and MACD INDA breaks down thru it’s 233 ema on momentum and increased selling Guys let’s watch INDA JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • kim

    Mole i wish you a pleasant stay here in Slovenia. Weather really sucks lately.

  • zzezzezz

    Long /ES @ 2866

  • zzezzezz

    Stopped out of that MFr…
    -2.5 point loss
    I’ll try again in a minute…

  • zzezzezz

    Let’s try this again

  • zzezzezz

    That’s better

  • Darkthirty

    Fed spit for lubrication…..

  • zzezzezz

    Moving stop up

  • zzezzezz

    Long /6B @ 1.2754
    (very tight stop)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    News … India’s stock futures jump as Modi wins election
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    If enough people like you start showing up for the free pre-market gravy train eventually it will make it harder for them

  • Dyellowflash

    I still have my shorts on. Those 2 days of crazy swings took out my ES and Dow Shorts, while my Rusells shorts made all the bucks.

  • Dyellowflash

    Not sure what caused that down spike, but that’s enough profit for my day’s objective even with only half of my shorts left from Fri. Anything else more is house’s gift today.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hvala lepa πŸ™‚

    We absolutely love Slovenia and the people here are awesome. The other day we went to Bohinj lake and it was one of the most gorgeous places I have ever seen. We will definitely come back here.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I was planning to do a post this morning but unfortunately will not be able to as the Internet connection near Lake Bled is slow as molasses. A little over 1MB/sec with constant disconnects and I just can’t get anything done. It took me 3 hours last night just to get the VPS up and running and launch the systems. So I’m giving up for now and will try again later tonight once we arrive in Austria.

  • Dyellowflash

    OK, I had TP-ed all shorts around the lows of ES2840s. I will chill off for a few hrs and let zero lead the way for me to go a 2nd round later.

  • zzezzezz

    Stopped out for a – 3 point loss overnight

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Good Morning bears!

    this song goes out to the long option call holders.
    Muwahaha.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEUndxE_4sE

  • Dyellowflash

    I snatched a quick short at 9.46am upon the first weak green candle. Just 25% position. Waiting. For. Zero.

  • Dyellowflash

    i mean 1min chart

  • BKXtoZERO

    pulled off my first two small TVIX entries, (24.2) one from 24, one from 23… holding larger entry from 22

  • Dyellowflash

    some divergence on zero 5m and 1m favoring the upside. I will hold my fire until zero favours the short side again.

  • HD

    nice trade D!

  • zzezzezz

    Long /ES @ 2845

  • zzezzezz

    stopped out for a small loss

  • HD

    any 2850 sellers?

  • zzezzezz

    i’m gonna wait until at least the gap down has been filled

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Dyellowflash

    Going to put in a bit of shorts with an SL above the day’s high. Rusells as usual.

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks, well I’ve been stopped twice for relatively small losses on MES and it looks like my first trade (Short) might have been the correct one. Lots of churning going on. I probably paid a little too much attention to VWAP this morning. I’ll probably take a time out until the afternoon session otherwise it could be like feeding a slot machine at Vegas. Fortunately Oil is keeping me in decent shape as of this moment so we’ll see how the rest of the day goes.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Dyellowflash

    From the looks of zero, its all over for the longs now?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’d like to say so, but minutely charts are finicky!!

    let’s trust in the Mole Curse. LOL.
    edit: oh, and a full Moon.

  • Dyellowflash

    same here. hence the “?”

  • Darkthirty

    Damn, bad news is “bad news” again? Didn’t get the memo…..

  • Sp00nman

    I don’t like to reference news, but sure looks like the trade war is heating up and things will get worse before they get better. Global supply chains getting disrupted can’t be good for business.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SP The market was ripe for a correction without the trade war B.S,
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    …only when it suits the market.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    even the china bears are in trouble.
    too funny.
    I refused to stand in an hour long line in Summer heat with my kids to get a peek at these creatures.
    Oh the insanity. Idiocity of The Masses.
    We still got to see them, in a crafty kind of way.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9e78e068298a603aa4111e1ff30c859879cf77f480c7f2a1c3c3be0cffe1652.png

  • BobbyLow

    I agree the market was due for a correction however what I’ve seen throughout the years is that news will affect and or exacerbate a move that is ready to take place.

    Will this China thing develop into something really big and disasterous or will it be nothing but a blip in the radar? I certainly don’t know but unfortunately neither do the key players involved.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC Breaks below 28 as referenced in a previous thread ‘The Big Short is on”
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Fiction from the 50’s appears to be the playbook now. Seems like Eurasia and Eastasia will be at war with Oceania……

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX 60 min chart Draw the trend lines from May 13
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Got a symmetrical target at 2863.50 ES but doesn’t line up with the fibs. 2860.50 is HWB

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Will it close the gap?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ask Zero. above VWAP?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Yes – this will affect US suppliers to China – the Google thing – As usual most of the mainstream news is focused only on China losing.. “necessity is the mother of invention” – they will be already thinking longer term

  • Darkthirty

    Got VWAP at 2846.5

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Now you’re thinking.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Gary Schnell stockcharts.com contributor several days ago with commentary and charts warning of Banks globally being in trouble and totally under performing $BKX triangulating for another possible leg lower Oversold at a support and if it can’t get legs now … Well ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4870b7ac541f7b47c57482c9c1f069554aafd1517382e1824e67011e963e587.png JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t like the news. if all you just said is true. Wouldn’t WallyWorld be hit hard?
    I’m not seeing it in the stock price.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMT&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p75972915621

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Not much of a squeeze after the gap down. A little different than the previous few gaps.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    uh huh.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the solution to lower prices….is lower prices!
    (I’ve always wanted to flip that one over)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    I don’t think WallyWorld will be impacted by the trade war personally. WallyWorld is a middleman and will simply pass costs onto consumers. They have rock bottom pricing, and if you don’t buy it from wallyworld, you won’t buy it anywhere. If TP, soap, etc. go up, no one will stop buying.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Joanne is great GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Shhhhh, don’t tell everyone!

  • Sp00nman

    Yes, I don’t have a graph in front of me but China will do everything they can do inflict the maximum pain on the US. I’ll have to look on the interwebs but imports from the US dropped and stayed down double digit % since last yr when the trade war started.

  • Darkthirty

    Looks like 4 on the DOW

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi D30 I have an impulse down working on the $SPX too .. Unable to get above 2854.23
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger
  • BKXtoZERO

    No Elliott Wave counts while Mole is away?

  • HD

    2800 is a huge level for the counts.

  • BKXtoZERO

    To my eye…coming below march 21st high is not bullish

  • Darkthirty

    Same time the wedge from 2855.5 is looking like a corrective bee, not a killer bee, unless you’re short

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi RB You is loggin.. and cookin .. with gas In a post below I stated to draw trend lines from May 13 on the 60 min chart
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Might need a tweet to push it?

  • HD

    2850 sellers locking some gains in.

  • HD

    Good eye!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG INTC Down Again ! love it ! When an oversold bounce occurs it will be the short of the year ! The ‘Evil Empire” down for the count ! The daily 5 ema trips it again !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Remember “Market In Correction” Trying to cut a fat hog in the ass by going long a fools game. I stated short the bounces last week
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    2826.75 target?

  • zzezzezz

    nice. i screwed myself today.

  • zzezzezz

    stopped out for a loss…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    ZZ IMO Short the bounces only
    JULIE

  • zzezzezz

    yeah, agreed

  • Darkthirty

    It’s good to walk away for awhile when you get too confident. Not saying when you’re in the zone, just when you get complacent………..

  • BKXtoZERO

    NQ leading…

  • zzezzezz

    agreed. and i’m definitely not in the zone today πŸ™

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    added to QID just now. My mind is saying it’s a stupid thing.
    shrodinger’s cat will punish me. but I must follow the setup. every time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    obligatory snippet.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21437f0fb31732279bb3e75f0df2d35a8b403848089f6503026a8956c6a0fd5a.png

    Hello I’m Casey Kasem, and last weeks top number hit. Talk Talk, by The Party’s Over!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hHnOBlwU3A

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    He said he might check in today.
    Wait till Tony clears thru.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The Chief (cat) is away and the Mice will play 1 – 2 now a i then up for ii Then put your crash helmets on
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I should have listened to you.
    wait a minute, maybe you listened to *me*. LOL

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d5364935515940d309ec9dc8179eceac36d0032ddcc27ff2d7dec6a3eae6bb1c.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    learn from your mistakes. more valuable than gold.

    sometimes it’s not a mistake, just part of the trade.

  • BKXtoZERO

    TSLA finally crushed….haven’t heard from my wife on her 5k investment at 312. I won’t be hearing much about my trading….

  • Darkthirty

    ES VWAP 2847. 2843 at the top of the channel and HWB

  • BobbyLow

    My day trading plan has a maximum loss allowance per day. Usually 2 Losses in a row like what happened to me this morning is enough to meet or exceed it. However, there was still a little room left on my loss allowance but there hasn’t been a new set up that’s been worth the extra risk to jump back in. Tomorrow’s another day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Congrats. Don’t gloat too much. If you win, you still lose.

    perhaps you could quietly play this in the garage when she’s around?
    πŸ˜‰
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vxfO5CLxwgA

  • BKXtoZERO

    I won way more than she lost…. She can only lose 5

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time check rats

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK It’s the pillow talk that you gotta win !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {face palm}

    “above the 21 ema, ooooOOOh Babee.”
    LOL.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I will whisper in her ear……. T. E. S. L .A

  • Darkthirty

    Like it rough do ya?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Tesla, attractive at RSI daily of 25. Could reverse tomorrow!

    but looking at the weekly, and then LEFT?

    Nawwwwwh. “let it burn”
    πŸ˜‰
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a140bf67b7c8fe769eb3ecb4243f9064a3f6c924390322402de8b36a1fe5406.png
    “If you liked it at $300, you’re gonna LUV it at $150!”
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    YOU gave me the idea to find some lines (Anyone…Wanna do a line with me?)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Ha so the Trump machine does a volte-face on Huawei – guess all those phone calls from INTC, NVDA, etc did the trick! just “NEWS (NOISE) “

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Dyellowflash

    Bad day for me too. Had 3R, went to bed. Reached 5R. Then reverse and took out all my stops on the dot 5mins after I woke up in the morning. Lol πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie, could you close the fridge door?
    please, not funny. it’s time for Summer. #ThinkOfTheCactus

    HD may already know about this.
    https://ktar.com/story/2581269/springtime-snow-falls-in-northern-arizona-bit-more-likely-to-come/

  • Darkthirty

    40 here. Most of the corn has been planted, some has sprouted, whether the seed rots in the ground has yet to be seen.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Dyellowflash

    The Dow/ES had literally made 23 wild swings since 1 May (labour day?) to today. I think I was saved by zero at least 15 times… cant be helped that for the other 3-4 times, I had to sleep before the NY session was over. Might really have to consider moving to EU to trade…

  • Dyellowflash
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Interesting watching CGTN and CNBC : The Chinese news – China will be planting more soybeans crops over next few years to rely less on USA imports. Huawei will if needed develop own operating system for phones. US companies will be also hard hit by Huawei ban by US (after 90 days)
    The CNBC gang – Huawei in dire trouble; Chinese will succumb to this pressure by making concessions for trade

    The interpretation of news all depends where you are and which way you are looking!
    My money on China and India (total 2.5 bn people)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Chinese views on US
    This ban will make China stronger a they will be forced to develop own technologies and invest in farming. Also with the B&R initiative they are slowly reducing dependency on selling to US and opening up alternative markets . Huawei says this ban will not delay 5G . Huawei says they are ready for this

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks, I did something I don’t normally do and that’s make an long entry last night at 2856.25. This entry caused me to want to take a look at it after every pee break. This is another reason why I don’t like to take night entries. πŸ™‚

    This position has survived the night and is positive at this moment but we’ll see how it goes from here.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I have a Chinese business contact that told me a number of years ago that only 10 percent of China is arable land. That may be an issue for them. I have seen on my visits that they grow food *everywhere* that it’s possible to do so. Highway cloverleafs, under bridges, people’s front yards, etc. Every single fireworks factory I visited had food being grown near the production buildings.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, been long overnight myself. Its range play so no follow through pretty soon resumes bear signaling.

  • BobbyLow

    Definitely possible for the bear to show up and take us out. I’ve got my stop in.

    Yesterday I got impatient with my short and covered before my stop. Price quit going up about a point before my stop and then tanked. So today, I’m going to stick with my trade until it’s no longer viable. Market’s not making it easy though. . .

    EDIT: Key an eye on Oil. If oil begins to go up again this AM it might help a little.

  • Sp00nman

    Looks like we got 2 new posts today. Not sure if they were both meant to “hit” today but just a heads up folks.

  • BobbyLow

    OH, Oh. It looks like he posted both mine and Tony’s?