One For The Road

Today is my last day in California – my flight back to Spain is leaving early tomorrow morning. Instead of going to an overpriced Hollywood roach motel I decided to rent a place via Airbnb. I’ve used them before and t’s a bit of a hit and miss to be frank. In most cases the reviews are positive (so they don’t mean much) and many times you get a really good host but of course it’s not a hotel and thus you have to accomodate for occasional inconveniences.

On the spoos I’m currently focused on the 100-hour SMA, which I think will be the decider of whether or not this correction found a floor last Friday. As indicated last night – there really was not much room to run. On the daily we have a NLBL looming at 1437.75 and that would be a first test.

On the VIX we are usually focused on the 2.0 BB but it seems we are currently in the process of forming sort of a triangle formation. That ought to be good for some fun near 14 and 16 – only two handles apart and I like it.

Crude – we talked about it last night and you know the LT perspective. More short term I’d suggest you watch the 100-day SMA – thus far it’s been holding up nicely.

Soybean futures – plenty of opportunities to get positioned in the past week and now it seems we’re off to the races. If you were a disciplined rat and rode our the entry then there’s nothing for you to do right now – let ‘er run.

EUR/USD – it keeps hanging on and the NLBL on the daily panel seems to be the only hurdle preventing a stab higher. A bit of contrast considering the LT picture I posted last night so I’m curious as to what’ll happen here. Personally I’m short here with a stop above the NLBL.

As usual in the past two weeks I’m running late – so let me run you guys through the new setups:
[amprotect=nonmember] More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Let’s start with bonds – the 30-year contract is once again bumping against resistance. I do like this setup – it’s looking pretty bullish, BUT I must be short here until the NLBL and in particular the 25-day SMA has been breached. Frankly I am hoping to be stopped out and get a whack at flipping this trade as there’s nothing but air above plus this thing has coiled up nicely in the past few months.

Corn – it’s testing our patience again. You recall the first entry at the SMA and I’m still holding it. Well, my new stop is below the 100-day and if it holds I’ll add a few more contracts.

Currencies – the AUD/JPY is touching dual resistance in the form of two entangled SMAs (the 25-d and 100-d) right now. I want to be short here but similar to bonds I am hoping for a break out as there’s much more potential to the upside.

AUD/USD is looking bullish on the hourly and still bearish on the daily. However, that daily NLBL will expire tomorrow and perhaps it can muster up a run higher.

EUR/AUD – touching support. I want to be long here with a stop below the 100-hour SMA.

EUR/CAD – also sitting on support in line with the general EUR theme (my exchange rate is going to get man-handles – I just know it). A lot of support on the hourly and there is some resistance which we may just squeak around in a day or two. I want to be long here as the bears have been unable to take this one below the 100-day SMA.

Finally the EUR/JPY – also looking bullish and as I’m writing this still wrestling with the NLBL. A breach higher here is needed to shift the momentum as the LT Bollinger is going sideways right now. Great entry if we get a close above by the EOD.

Public Service Announcement:

This will be my last post until Wednesday. I’m scheduled to land in Madrid early in the morning on the 17th and plan to be back in Valencia late Wednesday afternoon, probably during the NYSE session. I’ll do my best to come up with something intelligent but obviously I’ll be a bit battered and even more jet-lagged.

By the way – I need a favor from all of you guys. I decided to take one of my beloved Apple Cinema displays with me back to Spain. There are  lot of hurdles on the way – for one I have to check it with Iberia as luggage. Then there’s the AVE high speed train taking me to Valencia – they really don’t allow large pieces of luggage and I’ll have to use all the charm I can muster up to sneak it on board. Of course it may break into a million pieces on the way there – who knows. And the Spanish may just decide to put up a general strike and I could get stuck somewhere in Madrid. So keep your fingers crossed – maybe the combined karma of all my stainless steel rats will get it (and the Mole) there intact? 😉

See you on the other side.

Cheers,