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One More For The Road
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One More For The Road

by The MoleMarch 13, 2019

Our time in Sète is nearing its end as we are scheduled to head up into the mountain areas NW of Castres which is about 100 miles away. The weather report has actually improved a bit and we may just see a few rays of sunshine intermixed with a some rain showers during our time there. Could actually be nice as the air is going to crisp with temperatures ranging between 55F and 68F.

Quite frankly I can’t wait as the hustle and bustle here in Sète is highly reminiscent of what we are dealing with in Valencia all year long. As I already mentioned last week – Internet access in those parts is going to be spotty which is why I decided to step aside and hand the keys of the lair to Tony, my trusted quant trading buddy.

Not to sound like a broken record but I strongly recommend you sharpen your pencils and absorb as much as possible of what he deigns to share with us. As always you are encouraged to ask questions in the comment section should anything be unclear. Tony is a great guy and will be happy to sort you out.

Now as I won’t be trading during my relative absence (again I’m really not sure what awaits me there) the emphasis of today’s post will be to point you into potential setups that may come into focus in the coming week.

On the E-Mini side I do not see any indications of weakness thus far, which most likely will mean a stop out at ISL in my current lottery short position.

Here’s the SPX:VIX ratio on top of the cash index. No divergences there as the VIX has continued to drop in the past few sessions.

Now look at that UVOL signal over the past two sessions – nice and smooth – no drama whatsoever. So given the probability of continuation higher I’ve already placed a stop limit order near my current ISL to put me into a long campaign with a new ISL < yesterday’s entry near ES 2791.

Chart Voyeur Victims

Okay now these are the charts I want you to keep a close eye on over the next week.:

Gold has been quietly pushing higher and seems to be engaged in a LV short squeeze – which can be among the nastiest as short holders are slowly being simmered to death on a flow flame.

Any dip back toward that 100-hour SMA is worth taking but I would probably wait for a spike low followed by a retest. Since gold is in a LV phase there are good odds we’re going to get at least some time of ST floor pattern.

[am4show have=’p1;p13;p9;p12;p5;p10;p20;p29;p32′ guest_error=’login’]

Crude is looking like it’s ready to run after completing what is starting to resemble an ascending inverted H&S pattern. I’m hesitant to suggest an entry right now and since I am potentially offline for several days the best I can suggest is a drop back to that green support line I plotted on the hourly chart.

What is interesting to observe is the stark contrast between the hourly and the daily panel. While the hourly is experiencing HV cycle the daily ranges seem to remain within less than one standard deviation. That’s not unusual for futures actually but it’s what makes trading crude a bit challenging.

Make sure you place your stops with the perspective of the hourly panel – for example if there’s a dip to 57 I would put my stop to < 56.

Finally the USD/JPY is an entry right now if you want to get in early in this move. A more conservative approach would be to wait for a breach of the 100-day SMA near 111.6.

[/am4show]

Alright – that’s it for me for the next few days. I’ll do my best to pop by here and there as connectivity permits. À bientôt!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks,

    The market is still going up. I guess it never got the memo that Mole was away. 🙂

    I managed to get stopped out of my short Financials for a -.95R Loss and have since flipped over to the long side with 3X FAS. I’ve been churning oil positions and am currently long via 2X UCO. In recent days, I added Gold back to my stable (yes I’m a glutton for punishment) and am currently long 2X UGL. BKX got me thinking about Real Estate when he mentioned it yesterday and I’m currently stalking it via $DJUSRE of which 2X URE and SRS is based on. I missed the last upturn on RE and am currently waiting for some weakness there.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..you mean Tony – break your legs – be lucky you’re alive Tony?

    https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/02/10/article-1355367-0D1DA9FB000005DC-620_224x423.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX (today) 27.14 ( day size position), holding 1R from yesterday that I am down on…. giving it a chance here (still)

  • Yoda

    Now it a good time to short the tape IMO. We have negative divergences on the 60 min and 5 min charts and are right in the volume abyss
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72e2d8a1b39ba4e0363928bfb1f4f5432cdde32c0adc7edaf32d61aec510fed0.png

  • Yoda

    Odds are good

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Gold is above the daily 50 sma, so I can’t blame you for taking a shot.
    If it bumps it’s head, you’ll know soon enough.
    🙂
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f7bb9ed13030c7b9b5a94632492202ca20b03b9c49d1f6381ac354b7358c31f1.png
    -GG

  • Yoda
  • BKXtoZERO

    I added a little more DRV today… last 3 days building position for a hold

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….I just don’t see that. I do see very short term intraday around here, but not the sort of setup I think your talking about. The only real setup may be volatility support…not quite there just yet.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Daily chart looks possibly very bullish… short term shot for me… much above 2820 and bulls run. Looking for rejection or I am ooot

  • Mark Shinnick

    Also, the reits have held and strengthened into a new leg measuring beyond multi-year highs.

  • BKXtoZERO

    hmmmmm, real estate around here has been softening, commercial weakening for a while now

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, I see a lot of that too….but we live and die by whatever is the insanity of these investment instruments

  • bankwalker

    What happened to that wall?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that blue one is legit.

    that green one? you’ve been smoking too much 420.
    I swear.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes. I believe that Fundamentals can deteriorate for quite some time before a breakdown transfers over to the instruments we trade. If I remember correctly, signs of real estate began to breakdown long before the SHTF in 2008. For the time being I’ll just try to trade the “normal” short term swings.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    FED meeting, I can’t wait. Actually, I can

    lately, these things seem to happen quarter by quarter.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a4dcc1ec408e232d7f000145d53b3edbfa88f8abcf5e56d00121440879afdf7.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s him right there! Incidentally he offers very attractive loan terms.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    that’s why its garreeeen… lol

    but seriously, here is an explanation:

    https://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2019/03/double-dip-t.html

    and this is a previous appearance of T:

    https://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2018/05/2018-spring-t.html

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Trend day didn’t go out – just reloaded it. Here’s today’s:

    NYSE TICK closed 80.3% above its zero mark. MODERATE probability of an Up Trend Day!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As stated yesterday not shorting SPX until a daily reversal candle.No need to front run or jump the gun
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Hopefully no more European Dentist posts………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah – that situation is freaking me out to be honest. But I’ll just have to roll with the punches and manage the situation as best I can until I’m back in Spain.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed. At this point the odds of a reversal are dropping rapidly.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Try an American dentist. Get yourself one with a cute assistant who has nice hooters like Al’s dentist. One and done.

  • bankwalker

    We should know soon. We are at “the wall” right now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of yesterdays 1R TVIX 0.9 loss, 27.9 to 27, keeping tight leash on todays day position

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW Negative divergences daily and 60 min as Yoda posted earlier BUT … !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, entered some short based on volatility support models. If they fail to hold, the behavior should be consistent with those odds.

  • ridingwaves

    I learned a lesson about investing yesterday, even if the inside ownership is over 50% that doesn’t guarantee that you’ll get the full value of company if owner wants out

    Still racked up a 200k gain but it should have been 2x that based on fundamentals of said company

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Thanks for the tip on the cold spray. It is helping
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    There are harsher lessons out there…. I could deal with that one.

  • ridingwaves

    True, but this could have been the grand slam in 2-3 years with growth projections. I do think a higher bidder will come in…

    Capt boom is the only one who joined me here. Congrats captain

  • BKXtoZERO
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think there are less painful ways to find some thrills. I’ll toughen it out – no other option.

  • bankwalker

    short /ES 2818.25

  • BKXtoZERO

    IYR 20 year chart looks a little different, maybe shooting for all time highs. Shorter term looks more like a short to me

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e811c08efee6f3d634809e358edab3aff2cbdba5dd5c0854ee7a60312bc81fe.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    Surprise news story of the day…. It looks like some people LOST money using VIX instruments.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c42b1e85ab843175d5b478fee1a59587e264bc875047e0621994497cf0c53981.jpg

  • bankwalker

    It looks like the suit was filed yesterday but it is probably based on the events of a little over a year ago.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    investing in REITs via well-run mutual fund with all cap gains and divi reinvested produces strikingly different results… to upside. Compounding over decades is an incredible thing, even with financial crisis in between.

    Im in this thing for several years continuously via vanguard, and can attest personally that we DO NOT always see reality on a price chart. Specifically: my position in VGSIX is over 20% higher than 2016 top – more that just price plot would imply.

    And btw, your chart is un-adjusted for dividends. Put IYR in 5 year stockcharts.com – you will see a new high every year.

    Keep that divi in mind, cus you be paying that as a short seller… to me…
    Having said that – there was a 83-85 box since February, which seem to breakout to upside now. If up move fails right here and slices thru the box down – you got your short

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Thanks. Don’t think it went out yesterday either.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Short Crude via DWT 7.44 just now

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone contemplating shorting the miners?
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks, I don’t think DRV has to pay their dividend but I could be wrong

  • mSquare

    Isn’t it easier to short $SPX? Five times rejected at close over 2820 and this time may be one more. If not, easy to reverse…

    Isn’t more watched a level more chance it will fail?

  • Sp00nman

    Sure looks like they wanna clear out the stops above here. The move since Friday has been nuts. On another note the bond spreads don’t look to be confirming this move up since Friday so definitely warrants staying alert, as maybe it falls apart after opex?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi MSquare I have 2821 as a Level 2 Other Level 2’s are 2825 – 2832 – 2844 2814 is a Level 1 As stated below looking for a daily reversal candle to short and a daily bearish reversal candle below 2814 IMO a short Can occur at any time Negative divergences daily and 60 min charts
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good Man SP You watch the bond market also as does our Chief I have commented in the past about TLT and TNX
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Real estate 3x long DRN is what I should have been looking at. Those people must be happy!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Bruce Fraser of stockcharts detailed the home builders yesterday
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI above 50? you should know better Coug.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p92669758357
    -GG

  • BobbyLow

    Not saying one way is better than the other but we couldn’t be more different in our methods. I think you might have seen something that appears to be at least a short term top.

    OTOH, I find it easier to short weakness and buy strength. Both ways can be successful but I’m seeing new highs being made while I type this.

  • Yoda

    Nah!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    INTC,
    range trade turning into trend trade. saw-blade uphill.

    off to lunch!
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p2234814600c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG A 3 wave correction retracing 61.8% since March 6
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, so there it is now also at its own wall….Jack be nimble…
    https://youtu.be/AdvKU4GFg6Y?t=32

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG MSFT looks good
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    oh, one more.
    for any QQQ’s rats loaded to the gills.
    a moment of silence for Kudra.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e61de93d789ff7d9084399f0a3c5eff3d5c1687f8f706d0894f64de27ab37862.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yes.I am pretty short term focused. Probably going to 60. When I know that TVIX is not looking good i try to find other things to do…thus DRV and oil. If right the shorts pay.. If wrong I don’t get crushed the way TVIX crushes.

  • Ronebadger

    VIX just went positive…for a second…

  • zzezzezz

    Usual vwap btfd?

  • Sp00nman

    Ya we’ll see where the day closes. As of right now looks like the wall held. Possible look above and fail?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Understood. As I said earlier it was you that got me thinking about Real Estate ETF’s again. This is why I did a test on $DJUSRE on which 2X URE and SRS are based. I don’t know what time frame you’re trading. I’m using 3 Hour Candles and RE looks too strong for me to short right now. I think you have access to this chart on AMTD.

    BTW, I was wrong when I said that it was better to chart the ETF that you were trading as opposed to charting the underlying index. I found the underlying index to be much more accurate. I don’t even run charts on the actual ETF’s anymore just the appropriate indices that match up with the correct ETF’s.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Julie tempted !
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Oh, oh..Julie in 3rd person referral mode…look out.;)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Jason What a week !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Despicable Creeps…my first impression.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I have that effect.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Critical spot IMHO, next few weeks.
    Listen up to Mole, and have a plan ahead of time.
    Deer in headlights is bad. Don’t be a deer.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/725796a2c32d53de8991d5960a83d0160996fccd669e2ad7fc0f4f0e3614902e.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX A bounce off the 10 min upper cloud boundary .. Watching for a failure at this juncture which will coincide with the 60 min 8 ema. Negative divergences daily and 60 mi charts . Also below VWAP. Bulls hanging tough Jason
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Plan already formulated. Watching closely
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good.
    otherwise, we might have to hobble the other foot!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIL8-f4o0ss

  • bankwalker

    my last 3 short signals have failed …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Darkthirty

    The internal battle has begun!

  • Darkthirty

    Currently 786 retrace of 2943 The Jupiter/Neptune square is being touched off now, as the Sun conjoined Neptune on March 6, and will square Jupiter on March 13. This “translation” indicates that we will see one face of the greater Jupiter/Neptune square, and that is the face of hysteria, fear, and panic. Thus, stock markets and the Euro currency are exhibiting a rather large sell off, coinciding with this dynamic.

    With Mercury retrograde in Pisces through March 28, the news is apt to continue vacillating between hope and fear, exuberance and hysteria, a couple of more times in the next three weeks. It indicates a tricky and unstable trading environment, and one in which technical signals are likely not to be as reliable as usual. Traders are advised not to stay with a position for too long, as this climate suits only short-term speculators.

    Be especially alert late this week and early the next, when Mercury retrograde reaches its midpoint (March 16-17). Any market that didn’t reverse around the time of the retrograde on March 5 is a prime candidate to make a reversal within a day of the retrograde midpoint (Friday or Monday, March 15 or 18). That could also be the height of confusion and uncertainty, the difficult side of Mercury retrograde in Pisces. Of course, there is a positive side too. It can be a time of great inspiration for those who are imaginative. It is also a fine time to take a vacation to a sandy beach in a warm climate, which is why I am speaking in Miami/Ft. Lauderdale this weekend. Looking forward to seeing several readers there.

  • bankwalker

    decision time Julie …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not Yet BW
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    That Wall is needed on the Southern border. It keeps on winning…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    As long as you don’t include us hoosier hillbillies in that yankee comment..

  • Darkthirty

    I have a longer string than that on minute charts…….BTFD?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX and SPY breakout point failures today
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    look under the covers.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p82127535539
    price is up, but that Bullish Percent is not convinced.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Unable to show a chart presently. $BKX a bearish close below today’s low 99.27 will be below it’s 21 ema and a lower channel trend line
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    {insert bathroom stall pic}

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Unable to bring up stockcharts. Is $BPSPX below it’s 8 ema ?. It has gone above 70 and dropped below 70 which generates a sell signal
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG … ? ? ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll tell ‘ya. but you have to give me a shoulder rub.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you said you texted from the work bathroom. LOL.

    I suppose you are at home.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I left work early today.Not exactly comfortable. Refuse to take pain med.I am caught up at work and clients have rescheduled.
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks GG the 8 ema can be used on all Bullish %
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Left or right shoulder GG ? LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I hereby give you permission for TWO glasses of wine.

    ..for medicinal purposes. 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    LEFT.

  • bankwalker
  • sutluc
  • Darkthirty

    C’mon, that’s gotta be a left coast spawn of a mongoloid clusterfuck

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes March is a great time – but it’s really really busy – be prepared.

  • Jason13

    We have a place just outside of San Jose Del Cabo so we are always from tourist hell.

  • BobbyLow

    Must have wide stops to swing trade this stuff. But overnight and this morning’s price action took away my profit and I’m sitting at about BE right now. It also brings back memories of why I’ve dropped this yellow shit out of my stable in the past.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    if it was easy, everyone would do it.
    😉
    edit: I swear, RSI 51 is hit, and the bots kick in.

    pullback to trend.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aeb94ab05686915111d9674c0ea56015fe2b475184eda7fd1974409be6aba2e3.png

  • bankwalker

    get rid of the stable – get a harem instead – very motivating …

  • Ronebadger

    Hello…it this thing on? No comments in 11 hours?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ha….he finally found out! We all went to a different hidden post and only told select people. He he he

  • Yoda

    LOL

  • Yoda

    Market wants up and hasn’t finished crushing the VIX. Bots should now be able to push the tape across the wall into new highs.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Julie’s call to short gold stocks looks pretty spiffy now. NUGT down 8%

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure GG. BTW, I just finished my back test on Real Estate with my system and it really, really sucked. I’ve traded it before in a different manner and had a really hard time with it back then as well. So nothing has changed. I think I’ve dodged a bullet on RE because it died before I ever made a trade on it this time around.

    As far as Gold goes, I just did a 3 way comparison of back tests for the past year between my three current remaining horses Oil, Financials and Gold. Gold finished dead last in performance by a long shot. My old standby Oil finished strong and I was surprised to find out that Financials finished even stronger. I understand that there can be some differences between year to year comparisons but this data is consistent over all with what I’ve found over many years. Basically some things never change.

    The bottom line is that this data is telling me that I need to increase my size a little on Oil and Financials and retire Gold again after this current Trade completes,

  • Sp00nman

    Just a heads up guys. NEW POST!

  • Sp00nman

    Sure looks like it Yoda.