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Our Last Breadth

Our Last Breadth

by The MoleDecember 23, 2016

I don’t expect that many of you are spending much time trading anymore and that you’re probably busy with last minute Christmas preparations. Now before you accuse me of forgetting about the remaining 77% of the world’s population remember that a vast majority of readers are located either in the U.S., Australia, or Western Europe. Plus we trade U.S. markets which still observe Christian holidays. And last but not least – I’m probably the least politically correct SOB you’ll ever have the misfortune of running into 

Now as today also marks my last active trading session of the year I thought I’ll treat you all to one final momo update. It’s been a month or so and a lot has happened in the interim. So let’s bring out the big guns and see if there’s more pain in store for our poor battered grizzlies:


Here we are looking at SPX breadth based on stocks trading above their 50-day SMA versus the ones trading above their 200-day SMA. And right away we can see that the ratio is back above its upper threshold near the 1.0 mark. However when looking at this chart it is important to remember that any sign of weakness in price is usually preceded by  weeks, if not months, of divergent signals. And nothing usually happen unless it drops below the 1.0 mark and stays there for a while.


A similar picture on the NYSE. Once again we are above the 1.0 mark but that frankly doesn’t mean much unless we drop back below it. And based on recent activity there is PLENTY of room left for a ride higher. ‘Tis not the season to think bearish…

More momo charts below for my intrepid subs:


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Merry Christmas!

And that is it ladies and leeches – my last post of the year. Over the past 12 months I’ve worked my butt off to not only keep us all ahead of the tape but actually banking coin during the rare moments when the getting was good. It’s been extremely exhausting to be honest and I promised myself (and my most patient/supportive wife) that I would take the last week of the year off and not spend a minute looking at charts. I’m not sure if I’ll be able to do the latter but I most certainly will follow through on the former.

Before I run: Very special thanks and my most sincere appreciation to all my subscribers who have been putting their money where they mouth is by actually supporting the blog. As your first new year resolution you may want to consider joining their ranks – the grass is greener over there 😉

Here’s me wishing all of you a very merry Christmas and a hopefully less annoying year. See you all on January 3rd (the 2nd is an NYSE holiday).

About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Ronebadger

    Mole, God bless you AND your wife…Merry Christmas!

  • Gold_Gerb

    Enjoy the week off, you’ve definitely earned it!

    God Bless to the Mrs.

  • ridingwaves

    Thanks for the update Mole, Feliz Navidad Y Feliz Ano Nuevo to you and your family….

    Merry Christmas to all of the ES rats and families….

    it feels good to say Merry Christmas being its so politically not correct now days….Fuck the naysayers…

    still in scalp from yesterday, nothing happened
    NG did get an after report bump

  • i Bergamot

    Enjoy your holidays, send our warmest wishes for your better-looking half… 😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice post Mole, yeah… least politically correct SOB !! end of year always a good time to weed-out bullshit artists. Ok, I’m long miners.

  • Bankroft Papshoda

    Next to James Brown, You, Sir, are the hardest working man in (market) show business~!~ This is a rare photo of the fabled ‘Black Swan’ event under control.

  • OJuice

    Thanks for all the hard work this year Mole.

    Merry Christmas everyone!

  • ridingwaves

    what’s crazy is GPL could finally break out of 1.55 range next week…bucking the trend it is..Merry Xmas to you and yours…cheers

  • Mark Shinnick

    You bet, thanks for everything; same for all of yours 🙂

  • ridingwaves
  • Sir Mole III

    Evil Speculator approved.

  • Sir Mole III

    Thanks for your loyal presence all these years and best wishes for the holidays as well 🙂

  • Sir Mole III

    I will forward your kind wishes to Mrs. Evil. Thanks for all the contributions this year 🙂

  • Sir Mole III

    Merry fucking Christmas – yes sirreee 🙂

    Thanks for your consistent presence and contributions this year. Hope to see you here next year as well.

  • Sir Mole III

    Ha! She’s a looker alright 😉

    Happy holidays as well to you and your family as well, Bergamot.

  • Sir Mole III

    Thanks OJuice – merry Christmas to you as well.

  • Sir Mole III

    Thank you and welcome to the site, Bankroft. (he even has ‘bank’ in his name – he should be evil enough)

  • Sir Mole III

    Thanks Mark! When are you going to get yourself a proper avatar??

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm good idea….wonder what Last Breadth market nightmare that might be…

  • captainboom

    In the true spirit of Christmas, a little history lesson. I’m all for the drunken debauchery.

    Thanks for all the hard work Mole. Enjoy the time off.

  • Ladywandering

    Merry Christmas Mole and all the rats. Thanks for all you do and for being here.

  • Sir Mole III

    Thanks mate – try not to blow up your Christmas tree this year! 🙂

  • Sir Mole III

    Thank you!!

  • Ivan K

    Greetings all … I have been quietly wondering how many have done the (suggested from my side) research … to establish the probability of serious movements starting during this quiet festive season … and perhaps even to establish a RBT based on the observation / hypothesis ?

    After all, many robust RBTs can, and have, come from simple Time-based observations !

  • Gold_Gerb

    not me. I try not to reinvent the wheel.

    Volar covered this five years ago. As EvilSpec Historian, I’ll post the link

    that said, always apply a side dish of kurtosis for good measure.

  • Tomcat

    I am reminded again by Mrs. Market to not take any specific stock recommendations… And as GG keeps saying, you are only as good as your last trade…which in my case was horrible…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited the miners trade…will see what happens for a little while.

  • Gold_Gerb

    yeah, I saw that on the daily.
    tricky spot

  • Gold_Gerb

    for the record, Mole said it first.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Remarkable recall there, thanks.

  • Gold_Gerb

    if there is a Year End Rally, I will be watching 72 to 76.
    otherwise – Bah-Humbug. (66)

  • ridingwaves

    Mrs. or Miss? what trade?
    Widow maker on fire!

  • ridingwaves

    greetings to you Ivan, long time no post, hope all is well in life and trading, of course living on an island with lobster in local waters is kind of like the normal man’s hopeful dreams…

  • Sir Mole III

    Courtesy of the Gold Gerb:


  • Tomcat

    Miss I guess 🙂
    no need to mention the stock or person, because I am the only one responsible for my own trades. It just hurts thinking that I knew better…

  • ridingwaves

    Still in NG? Mojitos are getting close!

  • Tomcat

    Oh no, I have been out of that a while now…thinking about getting in…on the opposite direction this time.