Out Of Office
Alright guys, that’s it – I’m calling it a week. Watching this low participation summer tape is an utter waste of time. Clearly we are not going to see any type of resolution anytime soon, especially ahead of not one but two Federal Reserve speeches scheduled for today and then tomorrow, both at 10:00am Eastern. That’s right, our venerable Fed Chairman Jerome ‘Kryptonite’ Powell is about to reach for the mic and when that happens usually hilarity ensues.
I am tempted to ask what we have done to deserve this much punishment but at least in my case it’s probably best not to delve too deep into that topic. Besides I have a bad reputation to uphold.
My E-Mini campaign is hanging by a thread at this point but miraculously survived several stabs lower overnight. The odds of surviving Powell’s speech two times in a row are slim at best, so I guess we can call this a 2.5R win. Which in these market conditions should be considered a feat tantamount to putting an overweight claustrophobic incel on the moon.
From all the charts on my radar the USD/JPY is the most promising looking right now. Although the odds of a break out move are fifty/fifty the potential reward is worth a small long position here with a stop < 111.90.
But let’s be clear: This is a typical trend trading entry guys like Bill Eckhard or Ed Seykota would get all hot and bothered about. The odds of success are about 35% which is typical for these types of entries.
Which is why I’m hedging this with another campaign – please meet me below the fold:
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Public Service Announcement
Most of you guys are either on vacation right now or voluntarily abstinent. And who could blame you? This is not the time to force matters and I’m getting a bit tired of telling you the same boring sermon each day.
So as indicated in my intro, I’m taking the rest of the week off as I’m eager to complete the production of a trading psychology video series for people who are still battling with getting their trading act together. It’s a topic I always felt very passionate about and thus covered on numerous occasions over the past decade.
Which means if you’re bored out of your mind and miss the old Mole then perhaps catch up with some of those older posts, as they are fairly timeless and thus offer recurring value, no matter if you’re a bleeding noob or a seasoned stone cold trader.
Alright, have a great week – see you next Monday.