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Out Of The Gate
88

Out Of The Gate

by The MoleNovember 8, 2018

With the 2018 midterm elections behind us it seems that investors have regained their confidence in an effervescent future for U.S. equities. The Zero participation signal during yesterday’s session remained solidly bullish with only brief dips below the zero mark. Be this as it may, at least thus far the post election short squeeze has nicely benefitted our long campaign, rewarding our early entry.

Here it is in all its glory. Note how the long term (hourly) signal on the most left panel already started to swing higher as the E-mini was painting a large spike low. Bullish divergences like that is why the subs love the Zero as to my knowledge no other momo/participation indicator leads like this. If you are an E-Mini trader and aren’t a sub yet then I strongly suggest you remedy the situation.

As you can see from my ongoing campaign I am trailing this campaign loosely at 1.2R while MFE has touched 2R already. If the E-mini manages to squeeze above ES 2826 then watch out! More realistically though I expect a shake out ahead which produces an inverse H&S pattern and then continues higher.

So why not just cut out here and re-enter?

Because of Evil Speculator rule #576: Overthinking and over managing your campaigns leads to losses and unnecessary stop outs. Or in other words – let your winners run.

Gold whipsawed around again and not only stopped me out at ISL but apparently is in the process of blowing an historic opportunity for a trend reversal. You got to give it to the gold bugs over the past decade – nothing but suffering.

But as you know this was indeed part of the plan as my inverse USD/JPY campaign is rocking and rolling now. Stop here also advances to 1.2R.

Eying the Dollar I am getting interested in grabbing a long position if it manages to breach 96.222 – yes I’m very specific. My stop would be < 95.69 but be more generous if you like. Obviously the general idea here is continuation but be advised that this could also turn into a another reversal pattern. Tough to say at this stage which is why I didn’t enter just yet and want to see a breach of the spike high.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..and Let your losers, lose or something like that. (don’t catch a knife)

    USO weekly.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f12d2995934907c1229afbd0cd8c36d5f1037d2a2ccd591c835d4e7682292311.png

  • 1coin3lives

    Wasn’t it something like “keep your winners under wraps, cut your losers some slack”? At least that’s how it always ended up working for me…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all I know, is that the QQQ’s were too hot yesterday.
    and that seems to be the case at open. a little chilling off.

    The day is young.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/266d4d347d7778cad2e3a2637fb5ad900306a2a0ef6252a09dc317d252b37bd7.png

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    over past 5 mid terms, snp 500 has rallied 36% on average after hitting pre-election low

  • Sp00nman

    Long oil short spx?

  • Sp00nman
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    I would love to see a wash out low to 59.70 to pick up 60 stops…..but I believe you can build a base long now…good luck in your trading
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3e907bd8258382afd38c3277b2dca1bc843e9b9366f0e6dce7fcde127e63388c.png

  • Sp00nman

    Interesting.. thanks. I really need to look into Keltner Channels, interesting stuff.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Was that posted today? BUY BUY BUY!!!

  • bankwalker

    FOMC statement today at 2 PM EST

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • ridingwaves

    so 57 and change by your view? tight numbers can’t tell if 57 or 59

  • mSquare

    That contra indicator has worked most times but this time may be different ):-

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes ..with some positive divergence. price vs RSI ..

  • ridingwaves

    59 is going to be real sticky, don’t know if they can beat it down out of the weekly candles from Feb 18….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX my 2813 target reached yesterday Not short yet. I would not jump the gun long oil yet.An interesting chart $OVX which is the VIX for oil. $OVX inverted for clarity https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/caf64fa03fd065dec04882bbee4839debf8f0fb4ceea36cdd51052befa0e8d5a.png Lower bollinger band and % below 10 ema where a bounce can occur JULIE
    .

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Like stated in post below Would not jump the gun long trying to cut a fat hog in the ass. Julie waiting for a bullish close above resistance and daily 5 ema. Again stated many times the 5 ema has precluded bounces since decline 1st week of October JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Quiet here today!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief … Waiting to pounce LOL!
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    slept in……. not much of a set up day

  • Yoda

    FOMC day before FOMC

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long CL 61.13, interesting spot intraday… if it does something it should do it now. Tight stop.

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK Yipes ! If USO does not bounce here and now could go lower perhaps 12.44 or 11.54 meeting the 61.8% retracement and lower weekly cloud boundary Shown USO weekly chart. Julie not jumping the gun. IMO needs a close above resistance and daily 5 ema NOW per daily chart below JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e8cf55b639182d7c4dd505ccd05b1eba99e7155c908cc66fe8719c7653d25ee0.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    out with tiny ding… that pattern sure did mean something to someone else too

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Intel stock up again?
    I might have to sell my shares! Thank You Mr. Gartman.
    ;-D

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Who is this Gartman guy that everyone talks about ? Some contrarian indicator ? Good Grief ! Too much !
    JULIE

  • HD

    In other news: Oil buyers got smoked! Again.

    HD is done pounding the table short CL/ USO

    Please use a 5 week TL and wait for break. JMHO

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    He he.
    he’s the ultimate contrarian.

    Stay away from Bitcoin before 20K? you got it, “Dennis fail”.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/29/dennis-gartman-says-stay-the-heck-anyway-from-bitcoin.html

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG LOL! I will take this Gartman as a counter trend play ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi HD Julie sitting on sidelines USO per weekly and daily charts with comments posted below
    JULIE

  • HD

    Rule #577: no stops go untouched in the S & P’s

  • BKXtoZERO

    I saw a nice little triangle and should have played it short not long… down to 1 min candles. Played out to the downside which is the trend

  • HD

    Oil is down 5% this week. 8% this month, 20% this wave. Lots of buyers. None are Elliott wavers.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ditto, but yesterday.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes BK Triangles in downtrends are usually a consolidation to go lower. The opposite is true of an uptrend.
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I reckon so

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    like goldfish swimming with sharks.

    liquidity!

    https://2.imimg.com/data2/UK/WJ/MY-4110425/fish-bowl-250×250.jpg

  • bankwalker

    just got 2 sell signals … ignoring them due to upcoming FOMC announcement …

    sell /ES @ 2809.25

    sell /NQ @ 7169.50

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW I have a sell signal SPX cash 60 min with a bearish 60 min candle closing below 2804.76 Subject to change. Watching waiting to pounce
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    just got another sell signal … also ignoring it due to upcoming FOMC announcement …

    sell /RTY @ 1580.90

  • TimeToPanic

    Julie, I went short midday GMT, as I saw the ES 2815 had been rejected. I’m 3x short NQ. I’m not expecting the Fed to surprise, but am expecting to see some real fear emerge now, through til 15th/16th November. The end of a long W4, according to an EW guy I follow. USD firming too…oil down, all bearish.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I put some tvix on at 34.5 earlier… I am prepared to be stopped out but it’s what I do….

  • Darkthirty

    Because EW doesn’t work.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    TTP I had my second target SPX 2813 Ready to pounce I too do not expect the FED to surprise. Banks BKX also bearish with the 21 – 55 and 233 ema’s daily in a bearish alignment with the 55 and 233 ema turning down. BKX presently an overbought dead cat bounce up into the 55 ema Banks are key esp with rates rising and banks non performing with the rates that have gone up Huge Red Flag !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back from lunch..aaaaaand…we’re red.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG IMO Better watch the lower trend line from 2603
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Get ready to short BAC This “Bitch ” up into confluence of 55 and 233 ema’s — Fib arc and 50% retracement with a MACD center line test overbought. GG Get that Black Cat Schrodiger’s cuz it’s a Dead Catter ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b837933d382a54f69400a71505822925a613ec6d36c12078699cd43593717df.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good luck. best you can do is get RSI back down to 49.
    😉

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG $BKX is curtains along with oil. Expect a snap back rally USO soon but to a lower high
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    a lower high Amen.
    a relief bounce.

  • Darkthirty

    PPT just fired up………….must be getting nervous

  • BKXtoZERO

    The Ayatollah is pleased! He he he

  • Yoda

    For once, Gartman’s call is in the money

  • bankwalker

    gotta give FOMC day 24 hours to play out …

  • Yoda

    Nice timing with the TVIX trade

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW Quite often the initial reaction is the wrong one
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Chief In your post above you mentioned a possible inverse head and shoulder pattern. I pointed the same out yesterday in a chart
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    I agree Julie. That was my point. Give the Gartman call until tomorrow to play out.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    she did.
    head and shoulders for cougars.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/9-5rNi-3aUc/hqdefault.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    I didn’t take it off…hoping for real reversal so I can leave it on. Most of these shots have been a waste of time over the years. This time may be different. My largest gains on Feb were fading fed announcements

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    whoops, that’s it. close your books.

    oh wait, another hour!

    I’m off to my real job.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG …LOL! Gotta show the entire picture … It’s a see thru glass shower !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and be banned?
    no WAY.

    EDIT: like most cougars, best left to the imagination!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The lower trend line drawn from the 2603 low intersects with the 60 min 21 ema Going to need a break of both below for a confirmation
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    “It’s only a game if you win but if you lose it’s a stinking waste of time.”

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Shorting SPX small position … Going to watch price at intersection of lower trend line and 60 min 21 ema per post below Stop is in Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Got gaps at 2775 and 2700 that need filled…………

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Definitely a possibility.

  • Yoda
  • Sp00nman

    A shame.. MWC would never be allowed on network tv these days.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    back in the day, I use to draw little T’s within Vee Moves. (blue arrow)
    Today would be a day where I would load up the short positions with absolute conviction.
    little did I know how much I had to learn.

    tomorrow is a crap shoot. It can do whatever it wants. AND,
    there’s a bigger T. (2940)
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5016b808438ba15146a51b2f0bc75a488b8d56bea518a6de42345fb350df7985.png

  • Darkthirty

    I hear ya! “market” is now run by algos with unlimited funding, pretty much a crapshoot. Speaking of crapshoots, got a 2793 target off something ive been working on………..

  • Darkthirty

    Did Zig Zag check out? He ran Ts all the time………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you know. Someone needs to put up a volume by price chart.
    Maybe Mole has in the subscriber section.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yeah, didn’t even say good-bye.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Got stopped on my long trade on that last dip today.. *sigh* Rule #577 holds. lol

  • BKXtoZERO

    I left some on because I am up. I am not “loaded” as you say but nice size if it works

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX It could go up to 2825 which is the intersection of the upper fib arc and cloud. Guys Bears must be careful as the Ichi cloud conversion line (8) has crossed above the baseline (21) ALSO The cloud is very this at this point.which offers less resistance Tomorrow is Friday and Friday’s are usually neutral to positive.Now I took a very small short probe today based on the 61.8% retracement– corrective 3 waves up from 2603 — overbought and declining SPV volume on the rally from 2603. If i am wrong will not be wrong long. If you know why you made a trade the trade is not wrong but if wrong not wrong long.Shown SPX daily chart and you can see the positive cross of the conversion line (8) above the baseline (21) and the very thin cloud offering less resistance JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d300ffed631e8994535b0140bb9817b7dc9a0223e5d9e8b5e4c47825822b1c05.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Remember the Cloud boundaries act as a magnet…. Again very possible approx 2825
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems like a funny thing…volume holes and such; that price change from this viewpoint is not so much confirmed by volume, but is drawn into elsewhere by the lack thereof.