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Outlier Week
44

Outlier Week

by The MoleOctober 28, 2019

Having picked up on last week’s gains overnight the E-Mini is currently trading at ES 3034.5, which given a fair value of -1.57 is equivalent to the SPX trading at at around 3036, thus representing new all time highs. It’s a good start for what promises to be an explosive week:

I think it’s fair to say we are looking at a break-out move here and although we may see a retest of the SPX 3k mark there is a good chance we are going to see some serious upside first.

Which brings me to this week’s stats and they are interesting to say the least. First up let me point out that I managed to switch the stats from the SPY to the SPX (GSPC over at Yahoo), which basically triples our sample size and thus is more statistically valid (depending who you’d ask – some prefer to bias toward recent history).

The Sharpe ratio for week #44 is rather salient at 0.38% which makes it the third biggest earner of the year. Yeeehaaaa!!!

Weekly % change is actually the second biggest historically speaking so we should be prepared for to see movement, hopefully toward the upside.

Trading range also the second largest of the week – no surprise there except that it’s starting to drop off rather steeply from here on out. It seems that week #44 marks the end of the big post summer volatility surge.

Percent positive claims 66% which happens to be my second most lucky number.Β So you may as well stop reading and just grab a bit of long exposure if you haven’t already, right?

Well, yes and no – once again there is a bit of a caveat:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Explosive
    LOL.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DpGucOUVAAADUlU.jpg

    Hey Cyd, now’s the time to (entry) short WFC, if you must.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Ronebadger

    VIX up 2.2% … SPX up 0.64%

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of UGAZ 12.5 to 14.66, heading to the good buffet today

  • pepe

    Long NUGT at $28.10.

  • pepe

    Congrats. An excellent trade.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Public Service Announcement to all non-subs:

    If you look a little higher up right below my author profile then you’ll see the crypto donation addresses I posted sometime in early 2018. I frankly had totally forgotten about them and decided to check my crypto account yesterday. Guess how much had been donated in all that time?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6e3ebd22bf72ecc75f3fc52eae83df65fd8fc992782a953a98f88261d773f29.png

    That’s right – not a single satoshi. So here is a friendly reminder to all of you folks who have been coming here for many years but still aren’t subs: It takes a lot of time, care, effort, inspiration, patience, persistence, and yes MONEY to keep the lights on down here at the evil lair.

    So if care about our work and want to make sure we stick around then go here and sign up for a Gold subscription. OR keep on expecting freebies on a daily basis and one day you’ll find what I saw in that crypto account πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Anyone see a pattern SPX i.e. a gap up then a sideways movement and stall with SPY volume less than Thanksgiving and Christmas of last year. ? Not exactly bullish Guys.IMO be careful
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    WFC Cyd has a target 53 – 54. Today’s gap up at 51.94 (high 52.04) sold into
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Do you have PayPal? That is more common.

  • BKXtoZERO

    “Most people” are not into cryptos…. but everyone who does ebay has a paypal account.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS Up so far today 3.25 % We have a long position Target the 21 ema . Above that will monitor closely
    JULIE

  • pepe

    Yes, and I failed to adapt quickly to the emerging shift which is a great learning. New week, new game plan. πŸ™‚

  • pepe

    They won the first battle but we’ll win the war. Muahahaha! πŸ˜‰

    PS. WFC wanted to charge me $5 for a withdrawal in Tahoe this weekend. F******!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    It’s coming to us Pepe. Love it !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    One last comment on ‘wedges’. If you want to lose money on wedges be my guest.
    just know they are of the Devil.

    channel complete. Yo’ Science Channels! edit: B!tch.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc1463da7038807c3c68dc5ffcd6952eebcb9cf32a820016bed67c461191f765.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I have sent the Chief donations Pay Pal
    JULIE

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Wedgies are of the Devil. These are the stairs to heaven.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’ve had a small business account with PNC for a very long time. It’s a seasonal business, so the cash flow is very lumpy. Bastards decided to load me up with fees, so I took my business to a local credit union that was happy to have me and my money.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes – just go to the purchase page – it’s done via PayPal as well.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Clearly you guys have never looked at the purchase page… I’ve been using PayPal forever.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why don’t you sub?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long small NUGT 28.43 a while ago

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    In any case – it’s support@[this domain]

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS Hit our target within a few pennies and pulling back Taking profits and keeping 1/2 on. Moving stop up. Will add with a breakout above upper downtrend line and 21 ema
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    @ Pepe and others WFC resistance 51.77 …. support 50.85 .. This Jasper has come to us Pepe .. Yeah !
    Cyd and JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief we will sub … We don’t quite get the hang of the Zero yet but we will sub. We have purchased one of your courses and have studied it. Again we will sub
    Cyd and JULIE

  • pepe

    There goes XHB. πŸ˜€

  • Cyd

    We took profits this morninng EXAS reaching target. We have a remaining 1/2 position. As Julie states below will add with a strong close above down trend line . 21 ema and resistance
    Cyd https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5b39b3d6d0212e2be536e10d1c4f47faa46a3c90ca634504cd3b411c394b8e1.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    RSI 69 & red candles. like PBnJ.
    but let’s see some follow-thru tomorrow.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XHB&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42484648474

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Time Check.

  • Cyd

    We see XHB too Pepe.It attained the near 47 upper 55 2.5 bollinger band and now the lower 55 2.5 band is turning up which is what we want A drop below the 5 ema will also breach a lower uptrend line. Patience is what we have

    Cyd

  • pepe

    Yes, I have been here before. πŸ˜‰

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its interesting that drv has held, and my tvix for today is holding.

  • Cyd

    Senor Gerb deciding on another rifle The Weatherby Camilla 6.5 Creedmor which is specific to women lightweight and a 20 inch barrel The other choice which is just as nice is the Winchester 270 model 70 Featherweight with a 22 inch free floating barrel. Julie’s husband says they are almost identical ballistics and power. He thinks the Win 270 would be better for me.

    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I have no dog in the hunt.
    Like I said, Grizz is a wise man.
    but if you are asking for my input, go with the 20.
    with all ‘things equal’, easier to get in-out of the truck!

  • Cyd

    The free floating barrel of the Win is actually slightly more accurate. Also the Win has the pattened controlled round feed and MOA trigger. The Weatherby has a two stage trigger which equals the Win MOA trigger. Both are nice.SHHH I may buy both and give Julie the Weatherby for Christmas and we can trade off ! SHH ! that would be a good one Senor Gerb
    Cyd

  • evilasevildoes

    when a stock rallies into Earnings it usually falls afterwards (edited)
    traps the bulls

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ha!, given that you just obtained a Porsche, I was going to say both.
    Men’s ego’s and their boom sticks rather go hand in hand.
    You being female and all, (Julie, send photo please)
    I wouldn’t think it’d matter much if you shot the deer in the shoulder, of 1 inch to the side. A “dead deer is a dead deer”
    -Cheers!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You can only get the hang of something by using it. I’ve posted a ton of example videos and tutorials/posts. Plus if you just want to support the blog then there’s always the Gold subscription.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have created a PayPal.me address if anyone feels compelled to put a penny in the box here and there: https://paypal.me/evilspeculator – thanks in advance!

  • pepe

    AAPL