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by The MoleNovember 11, 2010

Something interesting is happening in the DXY this morning:

Remember the two inflection lines on the DXY I posted about yesterday?
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

I had mentioned that we need to see a breach – either to the upside or the downside. This officially triggers a long trade and a conservative stop would be either Tuesday’s or Monday’s low.

Now let’s see if this one is for real. I expect a little push higher followed by a re-test. IF this thing gets going we could see a fast move to the upside – big emphasis on the ‘if’. Dollar bears would do well in trying to suppress a break out as a short squeeze could do some real damage here – after all Dollar bulls have been below the 5% mark for over a month now.

I do like the setup here as we have a nice cluster of support that has been painted for the past few weeks. However, we all know who’s trying to kill ole’ bucky, so let’s not get too giddy here. But a breach is a breach, so let’s not over think it – you set a stop and wait for the market to either prove you right or wrong.

Assuming this pushes higher I don’t imagine equities will follow right away – maybe we’ll see some sideways tape for a while. Last December, after ole’ bucky made it out of its foxhole equities took a while to catch up – seasonally I don’t expect much in terms of fireworks on that end. Admittedly that is an outlook I would like to be proven wrong on.



About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • 99er

    Long Bond
    Potential IH&S developing as investors flee the Euro.

  • malverd

    Oh no, i thought it was gonna be another porn bear 😛

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Sometime I think the idea don't trade the news should be don't you (retail schmuck) trade the news because by the time YOU get it it will be too late to trade it.

    Anybody following the MERS mess? I don't claim to know how it will resolve, but I wouldn't be surprised if the market (banks in particular) reacts with a violent up move if congress makes states take the “MERS title” as true.

    Alas, by the time we find this out it will be too late to trade.

  • malverd

    I really just follow the chart. According to the media one day things are OK, the next they are not.

  • yudhisthira

    Yes, market is pretty boring. Just collecting bits and pieces of TZA here. May have to let them go later.
    Seems like we have a possible five waves up since late August. Could be completing a C of 2, but possibly a 3rd of 5 up.

  • divergence

    still out there, still trading. Mostly daytrading. RUS 2000

  • gsavli

    grind up in the regular hours, then drop in the AH, then repeat.

  • Brishort

    Anybody has a chart stance on whether we are in a:

    i) Bear wedge on the 5min

    ii) Bull horribly shaped flag on 1H SPX (akin to 4th wave of something)?

  • Apple Al

    Still trading as before but don't have a lot of times for blogs. Subscribe to HOB but only spend about 10 – 15 minutes a day there.

  • red_clay

    Also still trading actively with new philosophy of hitting consistent singles. Mole, from your comments, you would think we were at the tail end of the 1973 – 1974 bear market or something. We have had a major run since March 2009 and a re-ignition of the commodities trade with exponential moves in silver, sugar etc. and that doesn't jibe with the “lack of interest” theme which usually precedes Bull markets. I was a stockbroker at the beginning of 1982 bull market and there was total disinterest before the thing exploded summer of 1982. Seems paradoxical about retail trader being dead and no one caring etc.

  • malverd

    hit resistance and getting weak on current bar (1:00 central). no opinion yet on 5 min chart
    1 hr chart possible new lower high. looking bearish

  • 99er
  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    I am not suggesting you can trade based on the opinions (doing ok one day, not so good the next) of the pandering pundits of the plutocratic kleptocracy, but rather that legislation compeling states to take the titles in MERS as the true title would be a huge shot in the arm for banks. How much of this is already priced in… well I don't know. But I do know that the plutocrats will know about this BEFORE the news is out. So by the time the media informs the public it will be too late.

    So as soon as the inside players think they are going to get what they want (by counting votes etc.) the market may sky … unless of course the news is already priced in.

  • malverd

    SPX 5 min bearish signal at 1:05; short at 1:10

  • jacksoo

    shoot over to 1214 before reversal against the ch?

  • malverd

    Yeah, what he said 😛

  • amokta

    In divinatio nos deficio

    In predictions we fail
    (things sound so much 'learned' in Latin? Plus i need a second half sentence to make a moto)

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

  • JDWM

    Hi tomorrow was yesterday so please tell me why I cannot see the rest of Peek A Boo. Thx