Pick Your Poison
Welcome to our morning briefing. Here we are reviewing short term setups ahead of the NYSE opening bell. If you are a scalper or swing trader then these setups may be of interest to you. As usual keep in mind that these are short term setups although they could be used as early entries for more longer term positions.
Pretty quiet out there – crude, cable, and Euro even lower (didn’t I tell you to wait?) but no big moves overnight. The Mexican peso may be a ST setup as it’s back at the 25-hour SMA plus there’s a NLSL at 14.935. If you want to be long try to grab an entry near that with a stop below 14.92. Time for the SMA to offer support and carry it higher.
Equities – the one setup I see this morning would be on the NQ as it’s offering us a correlated NLSL and 25-hour SMA. Be long above 4170 and short below 4165 – plus/minus. I actually like this one, the only fly in my ointment is this:
Quite a lot of event risk, especially tomorrow, and that’s been the game we’ve had to endure almost every month now. Price gets pushed toward a technical inflection point right before the FOMC meeting and then takes off like gang busters, not without shaking out a bunch of stops in either direction. Very tricky to get a seat on the bus.
So this is what I’m proposing:
- Don’t force it and make sure you get the entry you want.
- Get positioned today. Forget about grabbing an entry on EUR or USD pairs tomorrow – same goes for equities. Today’s the day to pick your poison.
- The trading range in equities is probably going to be pretty contained today (no promises but these are the odds). Place your stop a reasonable distance away but you can be a bit tighter today. NOT tomorrow.
The idea here is to get in early – which has low odds of happening but is your best play in tape expecting sudden volatility jumps. Watch the Zero today for early signs of accumulation – divergences and rate of participation is what you should look out for.
Now there are two charts which you MUST watch like a hawk – and they’re already offering a hint of what market makers may be up to right now. Please meet me in the lair…
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You have been briefed – now have fun but keep it frosty. See you guys later this afternoon.