Now Reading
Pig Wrestling
62

Pig Wrestling

by The MoleSeptember 16, 2013

My general outlook on the situation at hand over equities can be boiled down to an expression I’m sure you’ve heard before: I learned long ago never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty and besides – the pig likes it.

Here’s a screengrab of the current Zero indicator in action. Actually – if you step back and squint you can see a bunch of pigs knee deep in the trough and loving it. As you can see, courtesy of the Zero Lite participation signal, sentiment quickly turned from ‘woohoo free money for everyone’ to ‘oh crap – better get out while the butcher is in the shop sharpening the knife’.

Apart from the equities sideshow however the real action is happening over on the currency side. I have a whole collection of juicy setups waiting below but let’s first look at the Dollar which has once again been stomped lower. The weekly has us a few ticks above the 25-week SMA but it’s the monthly you should be watching carefully. That diagonal support line is very well developed at this point and current support not only lines up well with the 100-week SMA but also the 25-month SMA. Let’s just cut through the nonsense and mark 81 as our new do-or-die level.

Gold may have some of you guys confused but it’s now painting an RTV-L on the daily chart. Nice context given that weekly NLSL which thus far has been holding up. Given what transpired this weekend that’s rather positive for the goldbugs, but let’s see if this setup materializes. Had you been a subscriber this morning you’d been long since the lows – better luck next time.

UPDATE – as we’re dropping it’s possible that we breach the Friday lows and the long setup goes bust today. Just a reminder that a close below the Friday low (and the weekly NLSL) is a short signal. I covered that in this morning’s update but wanted to make sure everyone is on point.

More on precious metals plus some kick-butt Forex setups waiting below – please step into my lair:

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.

Now – did I promise too much? 😉

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Skynard

    ZL acting odd today with the jagged signals.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re always first – aren’t you? 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    To answer your question – the signal continues to reflect very little participation up here. This thing could fall off the plate at any moment. Not liking it.

  • Pervergence

    1/2 off GC 1R…..stop to BE

  • Skynard

    Lol, little participation but still below the signal line. Agree:)

  • Fearless

    Because we’re probably at the end of this cyclical bull.

  • Skynard

    AUD has been tipping me off, huge 4 hr candle:)

  • AcoBrasil

    FWIW, some sentiment traders I communicate with pointed out that Time magazine has the WS bull on a recent cover.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Spoos 1689.50…..”close that gap”..

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    he he,
    Today, the market waited to about 2:25 PM (the last 5 Minutes of Open Out Cry) to really show their hand to take a little extra Dump of Oil. I had held long today until my stop hit at 2:22 PM and then flipped to short at the same time. I still took a little hit, but kinda like the way it turned out.

  • AcoBrasil

    Thanks for digging that out, gerb.

  • Pervergence

    2nd half stop to 1R….

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no prob.
    I know nothing about the Sept 23, 2013 cover date.
    that is around the Fall Equinox time.

  • Pervergence

    Stop to 2R

  • Pervergence

    Stop to 3R…..s /GC

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That would be good for business – retail loves a bear market 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehe – that usually does the trick…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Please make sure to reload this post and check my update on gold. Quick reminder that the Friday low is our sell signal.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    that’s a good position to be in.

    3R and sitting at a quintuple bottom.

    http://s7.postimg.org/uj18vsoyz/3_R.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just added a new poll on CrazyIvan.Gold. One of our subs suggested it and both Scott and I think of a reason why it shouldn’t be part of the two CrazyIvan packages (i.e. the 30 and the 480). If you’re interested in trading CrazyIvan.Gold then please be so kind and cast your vote in the new poll I just put up. You can find it in the right sidebar >>>

  • Pervergence

    count me in….can’t find the poll

  • Pervergence

    Helps to follow instructions….reload page

  • Pervergence

    closed out shorts….long /GC on 10 min ss long

  • Wave_Surfer

    The cover confuses me. I see a partying bull with confetti, but is the caption saying five years after the crash, a crash could happen all over again? Or is the ‘it’ referring to something else? Pretty new cover, I guess it is from a week into the future?

  • Skynard

    These subliminal messages are telling me to long gold and short crude:)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/futures/

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seriously?

  • BobbyLow

    Man, I have enough problems with conscious thought. Subliminal messages could get me into real trouble. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think they are just covering their asses…

  • Th3_Acist

    To trade or to play the new GTA?… that is the question!!!

  • Skynard

    AUD mildly running stops, down we go:)

  • phylum

    Let’s see the reaction at that NLBL just above (hourly)

  • SS_JJ

    Retail is shorting rallies: great!

  • Skynard

    Chart, just 5 min

  • phylum

    K:)

  • Skynard

    Thing different about this moment is that the dollar seems to have some strength for a change. Think this div fail may take shape.

  • Skynard

    I would suspect that retail is all in, shake out this week though with FOMC. This rally is over:)

  • phylum

    Looks like you’ve got an IP on the hourly (5 mins to go) with a recently expired NLSL just above (had to restart the bitch!) … just beware of AA territory:) If she can punch through 0.926, nice:)

  • SS_JJ

    I will likely edge short after OPEX

  • phylum

    I’m not going to bias anything at the moment until the F#*%^C gets out the way … range/short term scalping until then

  • Skynard

    Smart!

  • Skynard

    Ah yes, should be fun.

  • convictscott

    In my view since the principal gold market is the futures market (only 3% of volume is spot gold) the leverage inherent in futures causes similar trendiness to currencies.

    For practical purposes gold can be treated exactly like a currency.

  • convictscott

    Everyone knows it’s is a potential gap open sell tomorrow, sell on break of the low

  • phylum

    I like this “Perhaps this is why Larry Summers jumped ship just when he looked to be a sure bet to head the Federal Reserve. He knows it’s about to get rowdy when the Fed stops spiking the punch bowl. And he doesn’t want to be captain of a mutinous financial system. Imagine the phone calls poor old Bernanke got in 2008 from the banks. And the abusive phone calls after Lehman Brothers.”

  • phylum

    I like this “Perhaps this is why Larry Summers jumped ship just when he looked to be a sure bet to head the Federal Reserve. He knows it’s about to get rowdy when the Fed stops spiking the punch bowl. And he doesn’t want to be captain of a mutinous financial system. Imagine the phone calls poor old Bernanke got in 2008 from the banks. And the abusive phone calls after Lehman Brothers.”

  • sburtt

    are you guys trading AUDUSD 480 Crazy Ivan? currently the position is short, but I didn’t receive any alert on the last rollover, I was wondering if we need to lower the stops given the last bar was a FSS, or at least it looks like on on my screen ; )

  • convictscott

    Last bar was not a failed shooting star, but at the next rollover it looks like being an inside period, in which case you would exit the trade (for roughly breakeven) and then prepare to take either way on the inside period

  • convictscott

    Danger danger Will Robinson! Overtrading alert!

    I would encourage you to track slippage on your trades. Ivan’s patterns have long term expectancy of between .2 and .25 per trade (ie you make on average 1R for every 4 or 5 trades) and experience spikes in expectancy up to .5 in the good times and down to negative expectancy in the bad times. It is not unusual for sustained periods (months long on 360 min charts) of .35 expectancy, and .15 expectancy, ie normal long term standard deviation of expectancy is approximately .1R.

    If your setup bar length is 7 ticks, for example, then when you add a tick either side your R value is 9 ticks, or $90 per contract. You would likely give up a tick at some point as slippage (spread). So on each trade you are giving away 1/9 of an R or .11R out of the .25R you expect to get from the trade. That’s fine if you are in a “good cop” phase earning .35 expectancy, its not fine at all if you are in a bad cop phase earning .15 expectancy.

    Obviously this doesn’t make sense in anything but the highest quality trades. You have options including entering on a stoplimit (to make the slippage only on the exit)

    On 360 and 480 min forex charts slippage is negligible (currently averaging 1/50th of an R), on es futures slippage on timeframes as low as 1 min is non-existent during market hours. During the premarket dax futures are just as liquid. Given you can trade anything it makes no sense to play a game where you give away spread to the HFT traders (that’s what all those bots are doing – making a spread)

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    A significant proportion of the income for HFT outfits comes from exchange ‘inducements’.
    EDIT: The same way as some brokers pay clients for placing certain types of orders.

  • sburtt

    sounds fair. if I may ask how do you define a SS?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pervergence – let me translate this for you:

    DON’T FEED THE MONSTER!

    If your slippage approaches half (or more) of your anticipated risk then you’ve got a problem. Especially when trading very short term slippage becomes a real factor. And may I add that I’ve gotten lousy fills on gold in the past – especially when it starts running against you.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, it always cracks me up when ZeroEdge posts articles about the ‘silly’ futures market and that things are different in the real world.

  • convictscott

    Close in bottom half of the range, upper shadow => 2 x real body

  • convictscott

    We are currently retesting the high in audusd, if you look at the oanda order book there are no retail shorts. This makes this a high probability trade.

    http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/historical-open-orders

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL – aren’t you supposed to be on a plane??

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sign up for CI Beta again – I just added gold.

  • convictscott

    Yeah those guys are right and the whole world is wrong. It is a simple fact that if you have enough margin you can arrange with your broker to pick up a futures contract 100oz of gold from about 10 different locations in the USA. All you have to do is have sufficient margin in your account to cover it, you get a receipt for the gold and a bill for storage and insurance. It also works the other way, you can cover a short by taking your gold to an assay point and paying a fee

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    EXACTLY – I never understood why folks would be buying it from a gold dealer and pay an extra 30% premium.Yes, they may call you and give you crap about exercising only a handful of futures contracts but you have the right to do so and if you insist they will have to let you do it.

  • Skynard

    Looking for a move in the dollar here. AUD testing .9300

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • sburtt

    i suspect your missing a higher high in this statement ; )