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Please No Encore
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Please No Encore

by The MoleOctober 1, 2009

Okay, I don’t want to freak you rats out but something jumped at me this afternoon when I was updating the daily Zero chart:

Now, the timing and fractal resemblence is a bit freaky, to say the least. And even the NYSE A/D ratio pattern is similar. So, the question we need to ask ourselves: Are we bears going to get screwed again?

I’m not saying that this is going to happen – but thought I throw it out there as a possibility. If we get a doji tomorrow I’ll have a pretty lousy weekend.

Sweet dreams 😉

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • MariAroma

    From Terry Laundry's ttheory.com

    “Update for Thursday, October 1, 2009 —

    5pm: Arms closed at 3.6, a very bullish reading. Market should stabilize then turn up to mid-Oct. peak.”

  • LegendC

    Amazing

  • Meshugga

    Mole I think you mean Sept 1 (You have Aug 1)……More importantly is that I have been thinking abut this
    ALL day today and even went long at the close (as repulsive as it maybe after waiting 7 long months for some downward momentum) because I went heavy short on Sept 1 and got some follow thru on Sept 2nd only to have my bear balls ripped out as per chart above.
    Im the biggest bear I know outside of you folks on this and a select few blogs. Yet like a rat in a cage, im not going for it twice. I expect resistance as early as the jobs #'s or as late as the close. P2 may be over but the bulltartds are gonna ramp this back to 1060 at a minimum by mid next week and 1120 is still possible.
    The GOOD news is that I am a fantastic contrarian indicator so it may turn out to be a upside fakeout with a vicious drop below 1005 to get the party started.

  • humble1 ™

    it is not “they” who is out to get you; it is “you” who is out to get you. ms.market just helps you do that.

  • molecool

    So true – the market only helps to satisfy your self destructive tendencies if you let it.

  • molecool

    Just shoot me now…

  • omelette

    There's also a case to say the pattern of this latest move is a fractal of the jun- mid-july move

  • AudioTactics

    Given that CIT is on the brink, the bear case should be pretty solid…

    I'm long TBT and getting run over right now in this break out move in bonds.

    I'm dreading tomorrow.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Hey Mole, that wasn't August 1, that was September 1. SPX was down 2.2% for the day. That was followed by an unprecedented 10 consecutive up sessions for the open outcry SP contract – the big brother of ES.

    I remember because after the close someone commented, “Well we had our correction. Now SPX can go to 1200 lol.”

    I just went back now to hunt it down. Turns out it was BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix) at https://evilspeculator.com/?p=10482#comment-1573… and I just gave that one a long overdue and well deserved Like. 😉

  • Basilfawlty

    Mole:

    Check out the the purple channel on the graph below. (I drew the channel 2 days ago). We are at the bottom and therefore I bounce will not be suprising tomorrow. I exited my SPY puts at EOD today, and willl reshort at the top of that channel should we bounce tomorrow.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&st=2

  • moneyfarm

    I expected more weakness in Retail (RTH) today given the CIT news.

  • EDC

    good catch, it feels different this time. the market is making the news and which is increasing selling pressure. We need a little rebound. remember the count, back then the count wasn't complete as it is this time.
    tomorrow will be interesting…

  • humble1 ™

    interesting: it supports my thesis that we may have just finished a classic 55 calendar day crash off of a lunar eclipse (8/7).

    the only thing crazy about that idea is Price; but maybe this is what a crash looks like in a raging bull.

  • suiciderats

    you will only get “screweed” temporarily if you are holding shorts prior to the 12th through 20th window of October…. markets are timed – not speculative… when will you get that through your thick heads? wild opex week coming up followed by multi-week down wave – if you can take major pain, then ride those shorts through opex Friday. The pain will pay offf by November opex.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    I was just noticing something similar on the Transports – not so much a fractal, but proximity to do-or-die support. $TRAN can drop a little more but bulls must hold 3610. Operation Toto is a go.
    http://tinyurl.com/y9et86t

  • suiciderats

    no worries mole, you catch on faster than most technicians… keeping an open mind is one of your strengths, and that is why your relentless pursuit of market excellence is priceless.

  • dullmind

    So did I, anyone who feels like doing the same, its on the second page, all direct links end up on the first page.
    Bug in ?? software. Just search for BigHouse.

  • ridingwaves

    Lurker here,

    Great analysis from all posters here..I'm learning much…

    One thing that could lead to surprise tomm.
    Normally jobs drop a lot in Sept as all the college and HS kids go back to school, as a result the BLS adjusts for that based on historical averages. This year, most college kids could not find jobs, so they will not be losing them in Sept. This could cause a “postive surprise”.

  • Offtimer

    This month is the 80th anniversary of the 1929 Crash. History will repeat this cycle. Plenty of selling at the close on SPY.

  • dullmind

    Hi Steel, haven seen you in a while. I like your argument, followed the links to “The line in the sand” and “Bullish Dilemmas”
    I would like to create my own chart so I can follow see where we are intraday. After I started writing this looked at
    “$TRAN about to backtest 30 yr channel” so I looks like the channel begins late 1974 to the present. It looks like for the
    other 'closeup' graphs you take the coordinates on the monthly chart to draw the fraction of the line on daily charts, yes?
    There also is fib fan that starts somewhere to the far left, may I know how far back? I use StockCharts so drawing fib
    fan lines is going to be a pain, but if it proves useful then it will be worth it.

  • Holl

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_aGIcMkGtZHI/SsVCC8czH

    Hopefully tomorrow we reach 1007

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It's on the first page if you sort by Newest First. 😉

  • Vardoger

    Thursday was a 95.6% down day.

  • Trader_Steve

    My understading is that CIT loands to many, many retailers who are trying to fnd credit to buy for. Predictions are that the holiday season sales will suck BIG TIME!

    Steve

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    No problem – you can see all the lines I watch on $TRAN here: http://tinyurl.com/pmlsbd

    There are 2 fib fans and the Great Bull channel, all of which are drawn on daily candles. The blue fan is from the 1932 low to the 2008 high. The yellow fan is from the 1999 high to the 2009 low. The channel line connects the lows in 1974 and 2003. Hope that helps!

  • Merlynn

    BB Breakout on the VIX today.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    MarketWatch monthly trading strategies sentiment

    On the 1st day of each month at 12:01AM US Eastern, MarketWatch publishes a collection of commentaries and features on trading strategies for the upcoming month. I find it to be a good contrarian sentiment indicator because (unlike a certain cable channel) MarketWatch tends not to have just a one-directional bias. Also because when the masses get “informed” of something to an extreme, it becomes too easy to make a buck fading them. 😉

    Looking back first at September 1st: of the 9 written features and 2 videos and 1 audio file, a whopping 9 of those 12 were bearish, focusing on how bad September historically has been, was last year, or was likely to be this year. For me that kicked the “Sell September” scenario to the curb as entirely too much “wall of worry” sentiment for what is in effect a seasonal quant stat. And sure enough SPX ended UP over 3-1/2 percent for September.

    The October 1st strategies are now at http://www.marketwatch.com/trading-strategies Of the 9 written features, 1 video and 2 audio files, this time 8 of those 12 are bullish. The most reasoned bull case is by Robert Maltbie in “No reason to be spooked” although those arguments always fail at key turning points. Others are far more extreme. In “Time to stand up for rally” ETF Trends Tom Lydon seems to recommend buying IYR – one of my favorite core shorts that has done especially well this week. And Thomas Key goes even further in “Time to play the pullback” suggesting not just to buy mid-October dips, but to do so using ProShares Ultra Bull ETFs!

    Of the 4 bearish features, the strongest is the “March reprise possible” video with Peter Eliades. The others are much weaker. In fact “Riding the rollercoaster” predicts an increase in price volatility and “Respite for the buck” a bounce in the dollar – both of which I toss into the bear camp based on anti-equity correlation.

    So 8 strongly bullish versus 4 moderately to weakly bearish strikes me as too far up on the “slope of hope” for a market that hasn't even had a normal 10% correction since early July. Per this sentiment a big red candle is pending for October should the bears choose to paint it.

  • Trader_Steve

    If you are up…shoot me an e-mail within 5 min. I have a comment that is about a part of that which would not be fair to be public..

    stevecREMOVE927_AT_earthlink_DOT_net

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Actually the VIX candle touched the upper Bollinger. You'd want at least the body of the candle (if not the wick too) fully outside the BB along with the “VIX Stretch” trigger that I mentioned earlier to generate a strong reversal signal. Else without such BB action you get a weaker reversal signal.

    So far no signal. But another big down day Friday could generate one and and it might be strong by the BB test, which could be interesting.

  • tradejane

    You know, you're right. Long some Dax here, already long Commerzbank 8.06 – yes with stops.

  • tradejane

    >I find it to be a good contrarian sentiment indicator

    I read a certain German business newspaper every day for that very reason. 🙂

    They had some very bearish articles again this morning. It wasn't the reason why I decided to buy some longs this morning but it certainly helped. They were calling for a bearish September too.

  • RSIlogic

    Mole,
    lets keep it very simple, 1st if you pull up a chart with volume on it for the month of Sept, it would show many heading for the exit,,I 2nd your outline of fear was a mid-week affair, please start to look more at weekly time frames, and what happens after big RED down week candles since OCT 07

  • TheMacroEconomist

    It not a sentiment extreme I noted: the bears do get a nod and no one's calling for Dow 20,000 or similar.

    But it does show that a good percentage of US money managers are leaning in a bullish direction this time. Perhaps the pressure of having missed out on part of the upside is a factor. Everyone has a benchmark to meet – in fact I hold my own trading to such a standard.

    (Does that mean I can be sloppier in down months, lol?)

  • ultrabear

    This is something I've been thinking about on the ride up too. Ultimately, whatever the machinations that go on – and I'm sure there are plenty, it's human nature to conspire (what do you call this blog?), as everyone from Adam Smith and before has shown – you have to believe in your analysis or you are farked.

    In EW terms, they are still the crowd (as Dan has argued far more eloquently than I) and if you believe that whatever you do they can beat you because of the conspiracy then you are giving away your power to affect and effect your own destiny.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Great post Mole, although I think again its a sign of bearish exhaustion, that many on this board are actually going long at this point, because they have become so attuned to the inevitable bounce. This is a trade that will keep working until it stops working, and I feel that the general tone, plus the big reversal on the 23rd September which was a big flashing red light means (dare I say it) this time its different.

    Although I'm extremely suspicious about today and have lightened my positions going into the BLS number. Especially after Goldman coming out late yesterday and increasing their estimate of jobs lost.

    Wouldn't it be shocking if the number was much “better than they expected”? <NOT!>

  • goldpackers

    Had recommended shorting SPG and CMTL Wednesday. SPG broke hard and would probably cover on weakness today or Monday at the latest. CMTL(finished diagonal) has traded sideways but appears ready to break to 26 eventually. WFC finished diagonal – 22 eventually. SPX – Sell 2 to 3 day rallies until 10-30.

    LOL

  • tradejane

    Oh yeah, the sloppier the better. 🙂

    Seriously now, everyone's style is different and I think, as long as it works for each and every one of us, who cares what that is.

    Many people aim for the max and I admire them for it. My own preference, for example, is to take profits easily and I tend to use rather tight stops. Today, so far, has been a perfect example of why I do this.

  • springheel_jack

    Great post Mole. Still plenty of room for caution here I agree. We can't yet rule out a new high from here, though this rally is looking very tired.

    it looked pretty tired in June though, and yet here we are.

    the other thing that sprang to the eye I thought was the possibility that we are finishing off the head on a new H&S formation. if we fall hard through 1000, that is a possibility to take very seriously.

    The last H&S didn't work out too well obviously, but that greatly improves the chance that a subsequent H&S would play out, or so I have read.

  • peder1001

    it wouldnt be statistically absurd to see SPY at early july levels by mid october imo

  • ratSAFA

    Read this link, very interesting. Somethings gotta give.

    http://www.forexpros.com/news/forex-news/trader

    Seeing some divergences on hourly chart. May see the market turning up today and Monday.

    Regards

  • jacksoo

    Good thght jack – take ES low of Aug 19th and put sloping trend line through low of Sept 2nd – perhaps 1017 will be a bounce?

  • ultrabear

    Draw the channel by connecting the 3 lower highs (sorry no chart – at a friend's) on the SPX and taking a lower parallel. It's pretty clear to me at least that we have not found an interim bottom yet – the lower line was support and is now resistance. The wave form is incomplete too. I think we are going to fall from here before any bounce.

  • jacksoo

    yeah – my 1017 bounce is for today – move higher – end EW5 – fall -that's the theory anyway.

  • gmak

    Pre-Market warm up
    This is a link to an updated SPX chart with trend lines (the same one as this week-end).
    http://screencast.com/t/OI8KwCU9

    Notice there the violet trendline from the March low, and the one that began at the end of July cross. Allowing for crayon drawing – pretty much on the SPX=1014 FIB (based on the 1550+ high and the 666 low).

    There is also a descending yellow trendline, which began at the ultimate high for SPX and touches more than 3 points on the way down. IMHO, this is the primary overhead resistance.

    You can also see that SPX has put in TD wave 1 of 5 down or 4 of 5 up. I believe it is 1 of 5 down – but this would only be revealed if we breach the yellow trend line that I call BIG YELLOW.

    It's not very clear on the chart, but the next lower FIB is at 881.38. My dotted arrows show my OPINION of what I believe might happen. Note that I don't believe that it will be all red days down to 1014.

    Here is a zoomed-in version:
    http://screencast.com/t/RctMYe9cns

    As you can see, the BOllinges are starting to pull in, suggesting less volatility. As well, SPX has straddled the middle bollinger. One possible scenario from this TA is that SPX will be green today to pull back towards the middle bollinger. I expect a small candle in any case for the narrowing of the bollingers to continue. If TA and serendipitly have anything to do with each other, I would expect SPX to hit the pivot around the time that the lower BOllinger gets there.

    Equity
    Asia was red. Europe is red on the order of 1%. Oddly enough Shanghai was green by almost 1%. ES has been pretty much flat all night with minor deviations at Europe open (a dip and recovery), and a bit of a (2point) run up from 4:30 to 5:30 – must have been related to the DAX (there is a strong correlation there. In fact, I have known traders to use the DAX as a more liquid proxy for ES during some of the AH).

    FX
    DXY /USD is up but not by much. We still have a ways to go to breach 78. CAD is weaker (so are gold and oil – resource proxies); JPY is stronger (running away from risk trade? Or running from the EUR back to JPY – I think the latter); EUR is mildly weaker; GBP weaker by more than a cent (ouch to longs, yay for shorts).

    NEWS
    CIT is going in the toilet as they arrange a debt for equity swap to reduce debt. Why anyone would be holding these shares is beyond me, except that various “boiler room” hedge funds pump them up to suck in the old momo crowd. I might see if I can borrow shares to short for over the weekend – but I doubt it's possible.

    Banks with 20% unpaid loans at 18 year high as doubts over recovery deepen. Note that many feel that the European banks are in even worse shape.
    GM and Toyota say that they see an end to the “post-clumkers” slump (huh??!!)
    Banks in Spain are propping up property prices to avoid losses (“You don't spit into the wind….”)
    German Bunds (Tbills) rise for an 8th day – longest run in 4 years. Any ideas of what this implies for the EUR, if anything? Please?

    Data
    8:30 Change in non-farm payrolls: -175K exp vs -216K prior. This could be an SPX destroyer if it worsens from prior.
    Unemployment rate = 9.8% exp vs 9.7% prior – not the real number anyway – watch out for fudging as the great unwashed fall off the gravy train with benefits expiring.
    Change in mfg payrolls = -52K exp vs -63K prior – 2nd derivative.
    Avg Hourly earnings Mom and YoY = expected to decline slightly and stay the same respectively.
    Avg weekly hours expected to stay the same.
    10AM Factory orders = 0% exp vs 1.3% prior = NO GROWTH for AUGUST!!! Watch out SPX if this number goes negative.

    ES Pivots
    R2: 1067.5 = still pretty lofty, but below where the BIG YELLOW would be on ES
    R1: 1047.5 = Far, far away
    Neutral: 1036 = didn't even see this show up on the chart overnight, which shows how narrow the ES movement range was in the AH.
    S1: 1016: I don't think we'll see this either – I have very strong TD support (not getting it wrong today) at 1022, 1021.25, and 1020.75. If ES were to close below these 3 stooges then serious downward damage could occur. Otherwise the 1021 – 1022 area is quite strong support for the time being.
    S2: 1004.5 – beginning to sniff at the 9 handle.

    EUR Pivots
    R2: 1.4728
    R1: 1.4637 = both of these are unlikely today
    Neutral: 1.4577 = I would put this as max possible in any up move
    S1: 1.4486
    S2: 1.4426

    The 1 hour EUR looks like it is running in a wedge at the end of a bearish staff. The slight upward slope suggests bearishness to me – but I admit to being confused by wedges vs triangles vs flags (I do understand flags). Heck, I'll post a chart.
    http://screencast.com/t/vzv4sw9IHkzL

    I think that this wedge should break down, but that it may head up to touch the upper wedge edge (love that rhyming quasi-alliteration). I see the downward target at 1.4486 on the pivot.
    In the meantime, see that yellow picket fence under the recent candles? That is momentum resistance – it acts as a bounce when approached from above – as a rule but not always (as you can see in the waterfall from late Wednesday). If it gets decisively crossed (closed below with a retrace to test) then the red picket fence at 1.4475 becomes the qualified price exhaustion target – below the pivot – so there would probably be a pin put down there.

    The 3 min EUR bollingers are sloping down, but leveling off and starting to tighten a bit. EUR is sitting on the middle bollinger, and 1.4550 is a qualified price exhastion to the upside. 1.4538 is acting like an elastic trampoline to the downside – so it may give 10 bps but will tend to push EUR back up – for the time being.

    Summary: I don't expect SPX to move in a wide range today. When it gets going, I will post details from my volume chart, since on these days it tends to revert to the center.

    I expect EUR to move up to touch the top of the wedge on the 1 hour chart

    Remember, I'm gmak, not the great Kreskin – and I CANNOT predict the future. These are just opinions and guesses. Also note that I am not retired. heh.
    R1: 1028.70 = quite tight

  • tradejane

    Well, the attempt for an encore has failed pretty miserably so far in Germany. Commerzbank is haemorrhaging. Was kind of lucky on that one:

    http://www.screencast.com/t/wshlXBnxIR
    http://www.screencast.com/t/9SfO4Zo8qQ

    Of course this market could still turn on a dime but the overall trend suddenly feels different somehow…

  • Duuuuuude

    I can't argue, and agree with the H&S idea. I also agree with Mole to remain paranoid, but the thing that makes yesterday different from previous drops is that yesterday clearly violated the trend line with high volume. Price and Volume are the foundation of Technical Analysis.

    http://screencast.com/t/jysT1RtVQ3P

    I am more negative in terms of lower measuring targets shorter term. A 50% Fib retracement takes you very close to 875, which was the neck line of the July H&S. It was the last major pull back, and meets nicely with the next Fib Fan. It also is pretty close to where your H&S Idea would measure out, depending on where you thought the neck line is.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    4 of 5 up daily is not confirmed yet
    at the same time C of down daily wave sequence has a 1.62 target of 1113 (which is lower than 1120sh for 3 of 5 up)
    I think market is mostly done going up and volatility reflects “search for new wave”

    Trade well today _ i got beaten up yesterday fighting the system (could not accept target of 1160 on SPX – paid the price) – so I will not be day trading today (one of my silly rules 🙂

  • Carl V

    Great post as usual Gmak! bottom line to me: I was watching the euro markets and the ES this morning (I live in western europe) and what stucks me is the toal lack of energy of the markets including euro. Normally one should expect a rally from yesterday losses. But nothing so far. At the contrary I see a slow and smooth downside for ES for example. I expect some stops hunters running prices slightly higher by the open of US markets. And I patiently wait for the EUR to break down the 3rd fan line I was able to draw. It has been touching this line 2 times already. Will see.
    http://screencast.com/t/NMMoC4MU9KA7

  • jacksoo

    nice post gmak – appreciate the work.

  • http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com TwoJacks

    the date in your picture should be Sep 1.

    regarding similarities, fractals, etc. I posted some hard data last night that you may want to look at:
    http://twojackstrading.blogspot.com/2009/10/dat

    The high TRIN reading (>3) that someone else referenced last night is NOT bullish. In six cases this year there were lower prices in the next two to three days in five of those occurrences. Only one of those was a climax sell point and that was the last one, Sep 1.

    Unless the market ramps right away, any bounce that is muted is a selling opportunity in my opinion.

    Good luck. jobs in 15 minutes

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Do you have a meeting today, or should we expect the market to thwart us again?

    Skål!

  • CorporalCarrot

    For there to be a significant bounce today, this BLS number in 10 minutes time needs to trounce expectations. We will also get another insight into master manipulators, GS, who revised their number yesterday to -250k vs mean expectation of -170k.

  • Duuuuuude

    I understand your thought, but I think price has traded into more of a rising wedge than a channel really. We will see.

    http://screencast.com/t/p1fb4gXF

    If this is a channel, we would still have 40 points to the downside before getting back to support.

    http://screencast.com/t/8kG8vPhjQG

  • gmak

    I'm out of the office today – so no meetings. You'll have to make your money the old-fashioned way – with work. lol

  • gmak

    Thanks for the insight. You are on the spot, so you may be right. I'm just looking at that wedge and thinking that it will break down. I guess the only difference is that I see a move up first to hit that upper edge – but that is just fear, not prediction. 🙂

  • Carl V

    Gmak, I forgot to mention: I again see my “favorite” pattern, the diamond, showing its face, again pointing downwards, and this time this is for oil, which has been kind of strongly linked to gold and equities. The pattern is best seen on 15 minutes and is not resolved yet. 2 obvious pivots here to confirm the next direction: 67.61 low and 69.25 high. This is for the nov09 contract. Observe the leading volumes are visibly down but…we are of US market hours.
    http://screencast.com/t/nE2ofGiut

  • gmak

    OUCH on payrolls.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    263K

  • Carl V

    KABOOM !! 1015 for ES !! Let'see if that holds…

  • Carl V

    Gap down opening in view today…..

  • gmak

    Who says that news doesn't matter?

  • dollar

    8:30 AM Sept. Nonfarm Payrolls: -263,000 vs. consensus of -175K. August revised to -201K from -216K. Unemployment 9.8% from 9.7% in August, in line with consensus. Bottom line: Goldman was right. The number was worse than the most pessimistic of forecasts.

  • Carl V

    EUR down, down, down, almost 100 pips in 3 minutes, happy I bought both USDEUR and UUP few days ago 🙂
    Oil crashing, gold crashing – damn, this is it or will we see a rebound??

  • CorporalCarrot

    This is why for the last couple of days I have been warning people that one day, this thing is going to fall and its not going to stop and trying to trade the bounces is going to get people killed.

    With today being a friday also, I can see a big down day.

  • bearmaid

    MarketWatch: “hidden unemployment 17%”.

  • Carl V

    Too bad I have to leave now for an hour- this is great to watch; Spock would say: humans emotions are fascinating…

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    The gap this morning is EXTREMELY important. If the SPY gaps below 101.91, do not close out any short-term short positions. If it gaps above it, I wouldn't get too greedy, and I'd take some profits on your Oct puts, FAZ etc.

  • ultrabear

    Live comment updating no more – missing it, personally :/

  • roncofooddehydrator

    I'm watching the 1008-1012 area on ES:

    50 day EMA on ES is at 1012 (bounced off this back on June 24)

    Draw a line from the ES open on 3/10 (669) to the close on 7/10 (869) and it extends up to the 1008 area. We haven't closed below this line the entire move up.

  • dollar

    at least, U6 was over 16% months ago, haven't looked recently

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    GMAK your work is awesome. The only thing that could make it better is ice cream! Either that or stocks that are “in play” today. Once again thank you for a great post.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Too often the solution is worse than the problem, eh? Disgust muse be taking advice from our government.

    Skål!

  • CorporalCarrot

    Me too….if only for the fact that every time I refresh the page, I have to log in to Disqus again :/

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I ahve a couple of daily and weekly pivots just below 1012… Good eye..

    Skål!

  • centerline

    Recalling that LQD broke channel support and dollar bounced again off the lower channel boundary. Declines were pretty much across the board. POMO cash running out. Health care bill now re-emerging. Jobless numbers coming out higher than expected.

    Should be an interesting day today.

  • sportspotatoe

    Thanks, not set up to trade ES. What would be SPY's equivalent to ES, about 2 points higher? Thanks again.

  • centerline

    Heard this one in the car a little while ago. New radio sounds pretty bearish today… first time in awhile that the stock market futures had any decent talk on NPR. Usually it is a 3 second report and then they move onto something else. Today was a whole segment on jobless reports, consumer spending (lack thereof), inventories, etc.

  • TheMacroEconomist

    If you don't want to turn on 3rd-party cookies, then go to http://disqus.com and log in there. That wioll set your Disqus cookie right. Then come back here.

  • dollar

    About 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in
    September, an increase of 615,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
    sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
    were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12
    months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for
    work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

  • centerline

    I always say that “real news” matters if it is significant enough and timely enough. Unfortunately, only 25% or less is real news, and less than that is significant – and even less is timely enough. Always funny though to see the reaction to news. The yahoo finance headlines always crack me up… “stocks up on jobless data”, “stocks down on jobless data”, “stocks sideways on jobless data”. Just replace “jobless data” with “housing starts” or “inventory reports” or “oil demand” or anything else potentially unrelated to the real reasons for market movement, and voila… we have a headline for the sheeple. Funny.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Folks, I trade the spreadbet markets in Europe so I'm not sure how close this is but the DOW contract is trading now at 9,415. The DOW 50 Day EMA, which has essentially supported the entire move upward is at 9,407. It will be interesting to see it decline materially below that level.

  • NorbertTO

    live updates makes the discussion more interesting to me

    Norb

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    U6 Aug Sep
    16.8 17.0

  • http://bullorbearwhocares.blogspot.com/ jamesmarkii

    wonderful for bears

    wonderfool for bulls who went long yesterday!

  • centerline

    Sitting on some UUP myself from a week or so ago.

  • chumprop

    I'm looking to go long /ES at 1008-1010 with a 5 point stop.

    This is the support of the ascending wedge since 3/10/09. Hoping for some kind of bounce there before we go down…

  • gmak

    Thank you. Unfortunately, I don' t follow individual stocks anymore. For trading, I'm more of  a 'big picture' type of person due to time constraints and other matters that fragment my attention.

    But there are tons of experienced knowledgeable people who are members here and post regularly. They have some stellar stock, commodity and FX recommendations.

    ________________________________

  • chumprop

    This also puts the stop below the daily R1 Pearson's support of 1004.5

  • chumprop

    It usually is SPX= /ES + 4 here lately…

  • TomOfTheNorth

    I missed this yesterday – a great quote on the rally (I think I'll change my handle to “Lance”):

    “One of the key lessons from Japan’s lost decade is that investors’ confidence that the
    authorities are in control of events will ultimately drain away. In a balance sheet recession, one
    should expect frequent downturns as the authorities balk at additional stimulus. Only then will
    zombie investors, sucked dry of confidence, squeeze the remaining puss from equity market
    valuations. Only then will the 20 year boil of equity market over-valuation be properly lanced.”
    – SocGen’s Albert Edwards. From the strategist’s latest Global Weekly

    The whole article is a good read @ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/01/7509

    h/t Paul Kedrosky

  • sportspotatoe

    Thanks…Good call on opportunity to buy short SPY yesterday…chickened out cuz vix so high
    and premium pd costly, now 20/20 hindsight, you are right…kudos.

  • dollar

    U6 is at 17%
    I think either they are sitting on that number or they can't even find people anymore because it has been close to the number for awhile.
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

  • ultrabear

    Extending the channel on the 30min continuous (looking on a spread bet website here so may not be completely in-line with the ES) the next support that I see from the next parallel down (to fit the descending lows on the 15th) is about 10 pts below us. Looks like we need a 4-5, 4-5 combo to complete the move from the high on the 29th to me too.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    gmak,
    I sold the bounce in the EUR. Markets jittery like last fall. Stocks down, bonds selling off after the first knee jerk up, reverse with the dollar. EUR just does not want to go down. Yet.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Judging by the likely gap down, Mole's 1 Sept scenario is off the table. It may recover, and cause pain to bears, but its going to be a much longer candle than was printed 1 Sept.

    My Dow contract is now trading exactly at the 50 ema at 9,407. Are we going to see a 9,3xx printed today?

  • bee01

    I think it would look something like this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBYmiqad_-M

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    TOS charts slow like death on symbol change
    may be it is time for TOS to die?

  • Douala

    CTA trader’s conference call notes:

    The deteriorating technical condition of the stock market, as seen via the avalanche of Sell Alert and Distribution Zone signals of the RSI-7 system, finally produced a meaningful decline in equity prices (S&P –2.58%). With the always important US unemployment report to be released this morning, here’s a quick rundown of things we will monitoring today.

    • The S&P now has turned the weekly down, with a lower high and lower low on the daily chart; the uptrend line off the July lows has been pierced.
    • The largest correction off the March lows has been roughly 87 points. According to Gann, if this present downturn meaningfully eclipses the largest previous correction, an overbalance in price has occurred, alerting traders to a change in trend. Circle the 990 area (basis futures contract) as an important level to watch (1075.75-87 points=888.75). Interestingly last months low on September 2 was 888.50 on the Dec S&P future.
    • The .382 retracement of the rally from the July lows to the recent high is 994 on the Dec future. The 50% retracement is 969 very near the August lows of 971.50.
    • The 8-day EMA is crossing below the 20-day EMA at 1041ish. If the market is beginning to breakdown rallies should not materially exceed the 20-day.
    • When many markets all reach momentum extremes, the message is clear; be on alert for a reversal. Gold and the S&Ps were hitting 2009 highs, as the dollar and the VIX were hitting 2009 lows. Expect rising volatility and the end of the one way bull market express.
    • Markets do not instantly crater after notching yearly highs. It is the second sell-off taking out the intervening low that causes panic.
    • In 1987 the market peaked in the final week of August, dropped into the 3rd week of September, before rallying into October 6. The anemic 2-week rally retraced .618 of the preceding sell-off and had incredibly narrow participation. The implied volatility on equity option prices imploded, and the easy trade was to load up on gamma during that two-week rally. When volatility is cheap the buying curve allows a trader to profit from either a large rally or sell-off. If volume gets hit hard on any rally in the next week or two, consider buying a little gamma.
    • Expect the market to attempt to rally sometime today. Should be a scalpers paradise; early morning strength is a sale for ultra short-term traders, while a hard down, news-inspired sell-off should try to reverse after a weak couple hours. The 50-day is around 1020, but we would prefer to see the drop pierce 1000 before aggressively doing some buying.

    Time to be nimble, observing the price action, rather than predicting an expected outcome. Being flexible means any statements of intended trading tactics for our desk could be different from what CTA does simply because conditions change, dynamics are fluid.

    What we try to do is give you our thought process, so readers can begin to look at trading in a different light, giving you new tools for your toolbox.

    Hopefully we give you some things to improve your trading and help you learn more about our profession.

    Get set; the tilt-a-whirl is about to start spinning.

  • dollar
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    euro has trend line support at around 1.4450..hasn't broken down yet.. I'm short gbp usd.. seems to be ahead of euro in topping formation..BUT will jump on euro shorts if we can break down from yet another wedge

  • Hanuman

    Can some one please point me to some corporate bond, junk bond ETFs ?

    Also I need some advise: Should I short them or buy long dated puts?

    Thanks for your help.

  • ultrabear

    Morning to you, Douala. Thanks for the update.

  • EDC

    JNK
    HYG

  • derekste

    3 strikes you're out at the old ball game… wearing a Cubs shirt today.

  • EDC

    trade at your own risk, do you believe spreads will still contract?
    do you believe that the TNX will go up?

    those are the two forces that should guide you for your decision.
    IMO the last 5 months is BS…

  • dollar

    Mole, if all my posts disappear, is there something going on I don't understand?

  • Duuuuuude

    I just made a hair raising discovery. I have never seen this make such a difference. This will be open to debate, but do you trust the log scale or not? It makes a difference whether we have broken support or not.

    SPY – http://screencast.com/t/ExHmz7gLop
    SPY Log – http://screencast.com/t/ZW6ogBg1X

  • ultrabear

    Depends on the returns you want – puts obviously will return more but with more risk. Wait for a multi-day bounce before you do anything though.

  • Keirsten

    Just a quick thought, folks.. and I've said this about a week ago. Think in reverse… just the way many bears couldn't get with the program at the bottom and trade the rally- same thing will happen to the bulls now. They'll still think it's dip time, so that should offer some GREAT ops to get short in better entry levels than right here. Let the trade come to you now if you're not already in position- don't chase it. If you were already heavily short- well… what can I say? Ching, ching, ching for us. G/L today. I'll try to check in w/you all later on. XO

  • Carl V

    EUR, gold and oil: reaction rally or reversal??

  • EDC

    great point K.

  • gmak

    See my post earlier today and look at the daily SPX charts I posted with trend lines. We haven't broken support on a non-log chart, either.

  • jacksoo

    become very much worse since Ameritrade bought them – nothing new, small innovative companies often get much worse when absorbed by bigger acquirer, who after all are buying the smaller company because they're cr*p at innovation.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… we should be looking up, at least from the open… AH could have completed our 5 waves down in minor 1. At the very least, we can get a better entry than bottom ticking…

    Skål!

  • Keirsten

    P.S.- I don't know why some charts were showing us breaking the March trend line last night, but we didn't according to my charts or Stockcharts. We're in fact sitting on that TL this morning, so it “could” serve as a temp floor. See ya!

  • Carl V

    Keirsten I agree with you: wild reaction on EUR, gold and oil but so far up reaction on ES not very convincing. Though EURUSD surprises me and seems to post a reversal, at lest temporary.

  • thelefteyeguy

    support at 1018…that's what I have…we're right above it right now…

  • molecool

    That was great – where did you get this?

  • molecool

    It is starting to look interesting…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well, someone called it. Futures totally overestimated the extent of the drop. Dip buyers coming in. Lets see can they keep it up. I think these rallies are to be shorted personally.

  • springheel_jack

    Daneric has March trendline support at 1014, Brinkley at 1012.

  • EDC

    are your charts log or asm?
    log seem to have broke but not asm…

  • Duuuuuude

    I just figured this out Keirsten. It is that some charts are set on log scale, and others are not. I am not sure which to trust at this point.

  • Duuuuuude

    I was raised using log scale charts. I don't recall there being such a difference. I am curious if the blog as a whole is using the non-log charts. I assume you don't use log charts.

  • molecool

    I wrote disqus asking how I can turn that off globally. They never responded but just turned it off without verifying with me.

  • dullmind

    Actually the gap down still fits the Sept scenario, now we need to close near the open forming a doji to
    match Sept. Then we need to rally on Monday. Only on Monday will we be sure its Sept all over again.
    Conversely if we get a good red candle down today that throws Mole's encore fear out the window.
    Bottom line, only the EOD value will tell us, and thats 6 hours away. G/L.

  • bergs

    Alphahorn

    The three wave move to minute two is a 5-3-3 or a flat? Does it have to be 3-3-5 to qualify?

  • TheCrowe

    closed vcs nov103/oct100 puts + 11% [hobby bear]

  • springheel_jack

    The wave C bear wedge we just broke out of indicates to 875 too.

    One way or the other I think we are re-testing that level in the nexrt month or two & I view that level as the key support/resistance level for the bear market to date.

    I'm planning to get a post out in the next few days targeting & regarding 875.

  • chumprop

    Log charts tend to show things before they play out on the non-log charts I believe… Especially for these large moves up.

  • thelefteyeguy

    im assuming GS got a little envelope with the numbers yesterday afternoon…bastards

  • springheel_jack

    No, but I don't think we'll get below 950 before October opex for a number of reasons.

  • springheel_jack

    That may well be.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    no real time updates?

  • TomOfTheNorth

    eeewwwwwwwwwww! Now I'm drained…..

    lol

  • insite

    at least they let us in on it

  • dullmind

    Good morning Keirsten.

    Somewhere, either on SOH or ES I saw two charts, one log scale, one linear scale. On the log scale we have
    broken the trend line. On the linear scale we have not. Actually as I write this I remember more than one person
    noting the discrepancy, perhaps on both blogs as well. Depends on which you think is 'right'. G/L.

  • chumprop

    Looks like we'll at least fill the gap…

  • dollar

    9:48 AM The number of U.S. lenders (zombie banks?) with 20% or more of their loans 90-days overdue hits an 18-year high of 26. So why are they even open? “Either they’ve got a massive amount of capital, or the FDIC just hasn’t gotten around to them.”

  • thelefteyeguy

    daneric had 2 charts yesterday (1 log and 1 non-log scale)…one broke the trend line from March low, the other didnt yet

    so confusing…

  • dullmind

    I have been switching back and forth depending on how big the range of the symbol I am charting is. Recent
    moves have been so huge that non-log charts become a useless line for day to day activity when looking since
    the March lows. Log charts let one see that the prices are changing. Having said that, this is the first time
    I have ever seen such a difference in conclusion. Shows just how weird things have been in 2009.

  • Keirsten

    All I know is, that TL was saved so far today and I messed around with the log switches, etc, and I know Brinkley saw the same thing last night… either way, it WILL be broken, but may take a few knocks on the door to get it done. G/L to you today, buddy! What a nice trade-able tape we have finally. 🙂

  • Keirsten

    It can be confusing, so probably best to consider them both and watch price at those zones. Once we break through, it won't matter to us anymore. 😀

  • Bart7

    what happened to auto refresh? now when I manual refresh it takes awhile and doesn't end up back on the last post…. I liked that feature, except wen posts were coming in too fast.

  • bergs

    Hey did they take away the auto update for discus?
    Hope not I like not having to refresh the page constantly.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yes, 3-3-5 = flat

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    either that or we're finished 1 of (iii) and still have the rest of three to go

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I count 5 waves in c, wave 5 is the longest, 1 is the shortest

  • Carl V

    The EURUSD move is not from EUR strength, but from dollar being pushed to the downside.

  • lilme

    Please provide the source, as I have requested before…..www.billcara.com

    It is good info and good to share and good to give credit where due and point others to good sources.

  • jr9876

    Auto refresher: http://download.cnet.com/AutoRefresher-for-IE/3

    Goes on your toolbar, can set it amt of time that you want to refresh.

  • bergs

    Mole

    Great observation on what we hope won't be a repeat fractual. Problem is we will have a first wave pull back shortly. one of five hopefully. The question remains has this all been three wave corrections or did we do a one two at whatever degree and starting three down?
    I think any move above our trend line from the March bottom might be the tell.

  • Bart7

    yeah but it refreshes the whole page including the graphics above and it takes longer. Right now when I manual refresh it doesn't take me to the top post and I have to scroll back to the top.. I'm gonna get carpal tunnel vision from that…

  • PeterK80

    The only problem is, is that I still cant figure out exactly where that trendline is esxactly… I have drawn differently using 2 different programs. And it seems like half out there think we broke it and the other half dont. Clearly the log scale has something to do with it.

  • EDC

    FDIC lacks capital to manpower to do anything.

  • goldpackers

    We should end 3 today and begin a four back to 1030 then the fifth.

  • insite

    FYI, when you plot a log-linear line onto an arithmetic/cartesian graph, it makes a curved line. technically, the lines you draw on log graphs are curves.

  • Keirsten

    I can tell you this much, $TRAN did break the trend line yesterday any way you dice it. We'll take it! 🙂

  • BaldEagle

    Shit someone is defending that 50 day moving average like Lawrence Taylor

  • Carl V

    looking at the pre-session ES: could it be that the 3 is just over and we are heading to 4 now?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… Fractured markets spell out reversals…

    Skål!

  • insite

    uncle buck needs to rally here if we're gonna kill this b1tch off

  • Bart7

    suggestion, bring back auto update, and keep the talk to market only during market hours to keep the flow of posts manageable…. chat all ya want after hours… this manual refresh or even with the browser plugin is too time consuming….

  • Douala

    Move on folks! There's nothing for anyone to see here except for “lilme”.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    To lilme

    “Please provide the source, as I have requested before”

    I have on every occasion except this one because that post was done on the fly. The market was getting ready to open. You saw the title on top didn't you [CTA trader’s conference call notes:]. You mentioned you requested it before? Well maybe I didn't see your request. I always try to respond to EVERY request made here in this blog. But guess what Mr lilme…SOMETIMES we just don't get our request filled. I had that happened to me here many of times.

    “It is good info and good to share and good to give credit where due and point others to good sources”
    Go back and look at all my posts and you will see every time I have given the proper credit. EVERY TIME ! ! ! . I know where I would like to point you!

  • innatedc

    I'm focusing on Retail today….short RTH….was strong this morning relatively but now has turned to relatively weak….

  • centerline

    I hate to say it, but I sold my Nov SPY 104 puts near the open. Looking for gap fill by noon today – then will re-enter some Nov SPY puts. Not playing the long side of this today.

  • Bart7

    what's McHugh saying now? Where's that damn Hindenberg?

  • dullmind

    Thanks, I believe I saw that post back in May, but had forgotten it. Now the only problem I will have to
    deal with is StockCharts monthly data only goes back to 1980. Guess I will be spending some time in the
    Gimp (open source graphics program modeled after PhotoShop). Well that's why they call trading work.

  • thelefteyeguy

    i was thinking the same thing but 4 is in slow mo right now…looks like dip buyers are cautious…

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • sportspotatoe

    Yep it was obvious where the source was. mebbe, lilme is really little to see that.

  • molecool

    Yeah, there was a bit of a discrepancy. Ready to reload Octobers on the gap fill.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Today is classic PPT day. I'm kicking myself for not booking profits when I could have at 9,410.

  • bergs

    Thanks Alpha, That analysis is critical to the counts.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    You can also set up a free Papertrading account with TOS and get full access to Prophet charts

  • AudioTactics

    Anybody trading TLT or TBT here?

  • chumprop

    I'm looking to go long /ES at 1008-1010 with a 5 point stop.

    This is the support of the ascending wedge since 3/10/09. Hoping for some kind of bounce there before we go down…

  • gmak

    Thank you. Unfortunately, I don' t follow individual stocks anymore. For trading, I'm more of  a 'big picture' type of person due to time constraints and other matters that fragment my attention.

    But there are tons of experienced knowledgeable people who are members here and post regularly. They have some stellar stock, commodity and FX recommendations.

    ________________________________

  • chumprop

    This also puts the stop below the daily R1 Pearson's support of 1004.5

  • chumprop

    It usually is SPX= /ES + 4 here lately…

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    I missed this yesterday – a great quote on the rally (I think I'll change my handle to “Lance”):

    “One of the key lessons from Japan’s lost decade is that investors’ confidence that the
    authorities are in control of events will ultimately drain away. In a balance sheet recession, one
    should expect frequent downturns as the authorities balk at additional stimulus. Only then will
    zombie investors, sucked dry of confidence, squeeze the remaining puss from equity market
    valuations. Only then will the 20 year boil of equity market over-valuation be properly lanced.”
    – SocGen’s Albert Edwards. From the strategist’s latest Global Weekly

    The whole article is a good read @ http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/10/01/7509

    h/t Paul Kedrosky

  • sportspotatoe

    Thanks…Good call on opportunity to buy short SPY yesterday…chickened out cuz vix so high
    and premium pd costly, now 20/20 hindsight, you are right…kudos.

  • dollar

    U6 is at 17%
    I think either they are sitting on that number or they can't even find people anymore because it has been close to the number for awhile.
    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Extending the channel on the 30min continuous (looking on a spread bet website here so may not be completely in-line with the ES) the next support that I see from the next parallel down (to fit the descending lows on the 15th) is about 10 pts below us. Looks like we need a 4-5, 4-5 combo to complete the move from the high on the 29th to me too.

  • ReturnFreeRisk

    gmak,
    I sold the bounce in the EUR. Markets jittery like last fall. Stocks down, bonds selling off after the first knee jerk up, reverse with the dollar. EUR just does not want to go down. Yet.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Judging by the likely gap down, Mole's 1 Sept scenario is off the table. It may recover, and cause pain to bears, but its going to be a much longer candle than was printed 1 Sept.

    My Dow contract is now trading exactly at the 50 ema at 9,407. Are we going to see a 9,3xx printed today?

  • bee01

    I think it would look something like this:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBYmiqad_-M

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    TOS charts slow like death on symbol change
    may be it is time for TOS to die?

  • Douala

    CTA trader’s conference call notes:

    The deteriorating technical condition of the stock market, as seen via the avalanche of Sell Alert and Distribution Zone signals of the RSI-7 system, finally produced a meaningful decline in equity prices (S&P –2.58%). With the always important US unemployment report to be released this morning, here’s a quick rundown of things we will monitoring today.

    • The S&P now has turned the weekly down, with a lower high and lower low on the daily chart; the uptrend line off the July lows has been pierced.
    • The largest correction off the March lows has been roughly 87 points. According to Gann, if this present downturn meaningfully eclipses the largest previous correction, an overbalance in price has occurred, alerting traders to a change in trend. Circle the 990 area (basis futures contract) as an important level to watch (1075.75-87 points=888.75). Interestingly last months low on September 2 was 888.50 on the Dec S&P future.
    • The .382 retracement of the rally from the July lows to the recent high is 994 on the Dec future. The 50% retracement is 969 very near the August lows of 971.50.
    • The 8-day EMA is crossing below the 20-day EMA at 1041ish. If the market is beginning to breakdown rallies should not materially exceed the 20-day.
    • When many markets all reach momentum extremes, the message is clear; be on alert for a reversal. Gold and the S&Ps were hitting 2009 highs, as the dollar and the VIX were hitting 2009 lows. Expect rising volatility and the end of the one way bull market express.
    • Markets do not instantly crater after notching yearly highs. It is the second sell-off taking out the intervening low that causes panic.
    • In 1987 the market peaked in the final week of August, dropped into the 3rd week of September, before rallying into October 6. The anemic 2-week rally retraced .618 of the preceding sell-off and had incredibly narrow participation. The implied volatility on equity option prices imploded, and the easy trade was to load up on gamma during that two-week rally. When volatility is cheap the buying curve allows a trader to profit from either a large rally or sell-off. If volume gets hit hard on any rally in the next week or two, consider buying a little gamma.
    • Expect the market to attempt to rally sometime today. Should be a scalpers paradise; early morning strength is a sale for ultra short-term traders, while a hard down, news-inspired sell-off should try to reverse after a weak couple hours. The 50-day is around 1020, but we would prefer to see the drop pierce 1000 before aggressively doing some buying.

    Time to be nimble, observing the price action, rather than predicting an expected outcome. Being flexible means any statements of intended trading tactics for our desk could be different from what CTA does simply because conditions change, dynamics are fluid.

    What we try to do is give you our thought process, so readers can begin to look at trading in a different light, giving you new tools for your toolbox.

    Hopefully we give you some things to improve your trading and help you learn more about our profession.

    Get set; the tilt-a-whirl is about to start spinning.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    euro has trend line support at around 1.4450..hasn't broken down yet.. I'm short gbp usd.. seems to be ahead of euro in topping formation..BUT will jump on euro shorts if we can break down from yet another wedge

    chart daily
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_9titM9yn4xw/SsX-Eytf0

  • Hanuman

    Can some one please point me to some corporate bond, junk bond ETFs ?

    Also I need some advise: Should I short them or buy long dated puts?

    Thanks for your help.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Morning to you, Douala. Thanks for the update.

  • EDC

    JNK
    HYG

  • derekste

    3 strikes you're out at the old ball game… wearing a Cubs shirt today.

  • EDC

    trade at your own risk, do you believe spreads will still contract?
    do you believe that the TNX will go up?

    those are the two forces that should guide you for your decision.
    IMO the last 5 months is BS…

  • dollar

    Mole, if all my posts disappear, is there something going on I don't understand? Nevermind, it's Disqus!

  • Duuuuuude

    I just made a hair raising discovery. I have never seen this make such a difference. This will be open to debate, but do you trust the log scale or not? It makes a difference whether we have broken support or not.

    SPY – http://screencast.com/t/ExHmz7gLop
    SPY Log – http://screencast.com/t/ZW6ogBg1X

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Depends on the returns you want – puts obviously will return more but with more risk. Wait for a multi-day bounce before you do anything though.

  • Keirsten

    Just a quick thought, folks.. and I've said this about a week ago. Think in reverse… just the way many bears couldn't get with the program at the bottom and trade the rally- same thing will happen to the bulls now. They'll still think it's dip time, so that should offer some GREAT ops to get short in better entry levels than right here. Let the trade come to you now if you're not already in position- don't chase it. If you were already heavily short- well… what can I say? Ching, ching, ching for us. G/L today. I'll try to check in w/you all later on. XO

  • Carl V

    EUR, gold and oil: reaction rally or reversal??

  • EDC

    great point K.

  • gmak

    See my post earlier today and look at the daily SPX charts I posted with trend lines. We haven't broken support on a non-log chart, either.IMHO

  • jacksoo

    become very much worse since Ameritrade bought them – nothing new, small innovative companies often get much worse when absorbed by bigger acquirer, who after all are buying the smaller company because they're cr*p at innovation.

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… we should be looking up, at least from the open… AH could have completed our 5 waves down in minor 1. At the very least, we can get a better entry than bottom ticking…

    Skål!

  • Keirsten

    P.S.- I don't know why some charts were showing us breaking the March trend line last night, but we didn't according to my charts or Stockcharts. We're in fact sitting on that TL this morning, so it “could” serve as a temp floor. See ya!

  • Carl V

    Keirsten I agree with you: wild reaction on EUR, gold and oil but so far up reaction on ES not very convincing. Though EURUSD surprises me and seems to post a reversal, at lest temporary.

  • thelefteyeguy

    support at 1018…that's what I have…we're right above it right now…

    Alpha do you have this bounce from 1020 as the end of (iii) of [i] and now on (iv)?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That was great – where did you get this?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It is starting to look interesting…

  • CorporalCarrot

    Well, someone called it. Futures totally overestimated the extent of the drop. Dip buyers coming in. Lets see can they keep it up. I think these rallies are to be shorted personally.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Daneric has March trendline support at 1014, Brinkley at 1012.

  • EDC

    are your charts log or asm?
    log seem to have broke but not asm…

  • Duuuuuude

    I just figured this out Keirsten. It is that some charts are set on log scale, and others are not. I am not sure which to trust at this point.

  • Duuuuuude

    I was raised using log scale charts. I don't recall there being such a difference. I am curious if the blog as a whole is using the non-log charts. I assume you don't use log charts.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I wrote disqus asking how I can turn that off globally. They never responded but just turned it off without verifying with me.

  • dullmind

    Actually the gap down still fits the Sept scenario, now we need to close near the open forming a doji to
    match Sept. Then we need to rally on Monday. Only on Monday will we be sure its Sept all over again.
    Conversely if we get a good red candle down today that throws Mole's encore fear out the window.
    Bottom line, only the EOD value will tell us, and thats 6 hours away. G/L.

  • bergs

    Alphahorn

    The three wave move to minute two is a 5-3-3 or a flat? Does it have to be 3-3-5 to qualify?

  • TheCrowe

    closed vcs nov103/oct100 puts in 2.59 out 2.9 (+ 11% & still a hobby bear)

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    The wave C bear wedge we just broke out of indicates to 875 too.

    One way or the other I think we are re-testing that level in the nexrt month or two & I view that level as the key support/resistance level for the bear market to date.

    I'm planning to get a post out in the next few days targeting & regarding 875.

  • chumprop

    Log charts tend to show things before they play out on the non-log charts I believe… Especially for these large moves up.

  • thelefteyeguy

    im assuming GS got a little envelope with the numbers yesterday afternoon…bastards

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    No, but I don't think we'll get below 950 before October opex for a number of reasons.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    That may well be.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    no real time updates?

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    eeewwwwwwwwwww! Now I'm drained…..

    lol

  • insite

    at least they let us in on it

  • dullmind

    Good morning Keirsten.

    Somewhere, either on SOH or ES I saw two charts, one log scale, one linear scale. On the log scale we have
    broken the trend line. On the linear scale we have not. Actually as I write this I remember more than one person
    noting the discrepancy, perhaps on both blogs as well. Depends on which you think is 'right'. G/L.

  • chumprop

    Looks like we'll at least fill the gap…

  • dollar

    9:48 AM The number of U.S. lenders (zombie banks?) with 20% or more of their loans 90-days overdue hits an 18-year high of 26. So why are they even open? “Either they’ve got a massive amount of capital, or the FDIC just hasn’t gotten around to them.”

  • thelefteyeguy

    daneric had 2 charts yesterday (1 log and 1 non-log scale)…one broke the trend line from March low, the other didnt yet

    so confusing…

  • dullmind

    I have been switching back and forth depending on how big the range of the symbol I am charting is. Recent
    moves have been so huge that non-log charts become a useless line for day to day activity when looking since
    the March lows. Log charts let one see that the prices are changing. Having said that, this is the first time
    I have ever seen such a difference in conclusion. Shows just how weird things have been in 2009.

  • Keirsten

    All I know is, that TL was saved so far today and I messed around with the log switches, etc, and I know Brinkley saw the same thing last night… either way, it WILL be broken, but may take a few knocks on the door to get it done. G/L to you today, buddy! What a nice trade-able tape we have finally. 🙂

  • Keirsten

    It can be confusing, so probably best to consider them both and watch price at those zones. Once we break through, it won't matter to us anymore. 😀

  • Bart7

    what happened to auto refresh? now when I manual refresh it takes awhile and doesn't end up back on the last post…. I liked that auto refresh feature, only was a problem when the posts were coming in too fast… but if ya keep the idle chatter down it works great….

  • bergs

    Hey did they take away the auto update for discus?
    Hope not I like not having to refresh the page constantly.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yes, 3-3-5 = flat

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    either that or we're finished 1 of (iii) and still have the rest of three to go

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I count 5 waves in c, wave 5 is the longest, 1 is the shortest

  • Carl V

    The EURUSD move is not from EUR strength, but from dollar being pushed to the downside.

  • lilme

    Please provide the source, as I have requested before…..www.billcara.com

    It is good info and good to share and good to give credit where due and point others to good sources.

  • jr9876

    Auto refresher: http://download.cnet.com/AutoRefresher-for-IE/3

    Goes on your toolbar, can set it amt of time that you want to refresh.

  • bergs

    Mole

    Great observation on what we hope won't be a repeat fractual. Problem is we will have a first wave pull back shortly. one of five hopefully. The question remains has this all been three wave corrections or did we do a one two at whatever degree and starting three down?
    I think any move above our trend line from the March bottom might be the tell. It will be close as a previous fourth wave high sits right on the trend line.

  • Bart7

    yeah, I've got that for Firefox but it refreshes the whole page including the graphics above and it takes longer. Right now when I manual refresh it doesn't take me to the top post and I have to scroll back to the top.. I'm gonna get carpal tunnel vision from that…

  • PeterK80

    The only problem is, is that I still cant figure out exactly where that trendline is… I have drawn differently using 2 different programs. And it seems like half out there think we broke it and the other half dont. Clearly the log scale has something to do with it.

  • EDC

    FDIC lacks capital to manpower to do anything.

  • goldpackers

    We should end 3 today and begin a four back to 1030 then the fifth.

  • insite

    FYI, when you plot a log-linear line onto an arithmetic/cartesian graph, it makes a curved line. technically, the lines you draw on log graphs are curves.

  • Keirsten

    I can tell you this much, $TRAN did break the trend line yesterday any way you dice it. We'll take it! 🙂

  • DesertEagle

    Shit someone is defending that 50 day moving average like Lawrence Taylor

  • Carl V

    looking at the pre-session ES: could it be that the 3 is just over and we are heading to 4 now?

  • https://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Yup… Fractured markets spell out reversals…

    Skål!

  • insite

    uncle buck needs to rally here if we're gonna kill this b1tch off

  • Bart7

    suggestion, bring back auto update, and keep the talk to market only during market hours to keep the flow of posts manageable…. chat all ya want after hours… this manual refresh or even with the browser plugin is too time consuming….

  • Douala

    Move on folks! There's nothing for anyone to see here except for “lilme”.
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    To lilme

    “Please provide the source, as I have requested before”

    I have on every occasion except this one because that post was done on the fly. The market was getting ready to open. You saw the title on top didn't you [CTA trader’s conference call notes:]. You mentioned you requested it before? Well maybe I didn't see your request. I always try to respond to EVERY request made here in this blog. But guess what Mr lilme…SOMETIMES we just don't get our request filled. I had that happened to me here many of times.

    “It is good info and good to share and good to give credit where due and point others to good sources”
    Go back and look at all my posts and you will see every time I have given the proper credit. EVERY TIME ! ! ! . I know where I would like to point you!

  • innatedc

    I'm focusing on Retail today….short RTH….was strong this morning relatively but now has turned to relatively weak….

  • centerline

    I hate to say it, but I sold my Nov SPY 104 puts near the open. Looking for gap fill by noon today – then will re-enter some Nov SPY puts. Not playing the long side of this today.

  • Bart7

    what's McHugh saying now? Where's that damn Hindenberg?

  • thelefteyeguy

    i was thinking the same thing but 4 is in slow mo right now…looks like dip buyers are cautious…

    EDIT…right after i finish typing…i see the 4….

    (back to the open…)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • sportspotatoe

    Yep it was obvious where the source was. mebbe, lilme is really little to see that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, there was a bit of a discrepancy. Ready to reload Octobers on the gap fill.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Today is classic PPT day. I'm kicking myself for not booking profits when I could have at 9,410.

  • bergs

    Thanks Alpha, That analysis is critical to the counts.

  • AudioTactics

    Anybody trading TLT or TBT here?